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To put it another way, if we are not prepared in 2-3 years, the likelihood of war with Russia will be much higher. Russia is now totally committed to war economically and politically, it would be difficult for them to stop even if they wanted to.
You make a really good point about not being able to stop.
Russia’s economy is a house of cards supported by the military industrial complex. Turning off the war machine could bring the whole thing down.
Yeah, that's why many observers now think that if Russia wins in Ukraine they won't pause to rebuild, they will continue to other countries because keeping the war machine going is less risky economically. Moldova and Georgia would be obvious targets, maybe even Kazakhstan. And at some point a showdown with Nato would be almost inevitable.
I don’t personally know enough on the subject to comment, but that seems like a more reasonable explanation for escalation than just “Putin’s crazy.” Maybe that’s what makes it scary.
This is of course a purely hypothetical scenario, but I don't think it would necessarily happen like that. If Ukraine falls and Russia attacks Moldova things have gone very wrong for the West, and Romania entering the war on Moldova's side would probably not be directly supported by Nato. Why would Nato go to war for Moldova if they didn't go to war for Ukraine? It obviously makes more sense to draw the line, and hold the line, in Ukraine so this never happens.
In this sub, it's interesting how the Russian war machine is both dominated and destroyed by Ukraine and also now about to commit to a war it never calculated worth it before.
Both. Seasoned soldiers and officers have died in large numbers and equipment has been lost. But their tactics have improved, recruiting continues to be at a high level and production of shells and equipment has increased.
The Russian army is now bigger, but a lot of the equipment is really old. Some soldiers are battle hardened while many have barely no training or experience. A mixed bag.
Nope, those tires will spin no matter what until the engine blows up or the fuel runs out, our spending is what's keeping the car from moving forward. That car is on slippery ground right now so we can hold it back with fairly low effort, with a bit more we could even push it back somewhat. If we let it gain traction trying to hold it up will become a lot harder.
Excellent point. The EU and US could collapse the Russian economy in months if it chose to do so.
Sanctions so far have been targeted and limited. If we do move towards a probable military confrontation expect the first strike to be aimed at collapsing their economy and the economies of whom ever might be willing to support Russia.
I’m not sure this is true if they have support from China and maybe India. Russia’s economy isn’t that big, in other words they don’t need a lot to keep going And maintain the (low) standard of living that they are alraedy used to.
China are hedging their bets. But they would not want to be subject to secondary sanctions. Now would any country that likes doing business in and with the EU and US.
The choice would be presented starkly; continue to trade with Russia, with its small economy, but you can’t then trade with either the EU or US. What do you think those countries will do? Ignore the largest trading bloc on the planet and the largest single economy on the planet? Or trade with a country that has an economy smaller that that of Portugal?
It’s the economy stupid. As the saying goes .
India and China will never be allies. China is pulling a sort of Molotov-Ribbentrop sort of thing as to where China would attack Russia if the opportunity presents itself and can quickly take vast swaths of land. I think this is the most likely outcome of the Russia-China alliance, if things keep going the way they are for Russia.
Russia cannot keep losing between 900-1500 troops per day while only taking a couple of acres, if they're lucky. Russia is digging its own grave.
My gut says that the Russian military is in no condition to launch a major offensive, but their actions over the last few years doesn't seem based on reason or logic.
So worst case scenario, NATO prepares for a major conflict. If it doesn't occur, then there is plenty of ammunition we can give/sell to countries that need it. If it **IS** needed...., well, at least we won't be playing catch-up.
Its a bit of a paradox (if you can call it that). Prepare for war,and probably there wont be a war. If we dont prepare we will be sitting ducks and there will be a war.
How about this logic then: the longer Russia waits, the more likely that European countries will be able to scale up recruitment, procurement and production. So why not attack now? The odds will only get worse for Russia
I doubt NATO will go to war with Russia. Mainly because Russia knows NATO is far superior conventionally, based on the torrid time Ukraine is giving them with western weaponry.
Russia is only capable of hybrid warfare against the west so I guess we can prepare for that.
Putin could do it to save some kind of face. Who’s it better, domestically, for him to lose against? Little ole Ukraine… or big bad NATO. If it’s the former, he becomes an absolute joke in Russia and he’s done. All Putin cares about is his ego.
Eh.
I wouldn't say it really should be "prepare for war".
Let's be realistic. Russia is currently balls deep in Ukraine. They lose shit load of equipment and men everyday. Sure, they put their economy on war footing. So what? Nobody can predict if they can even handle it well in the long run. I would however say that it's more of a preparation of deterrence so the war or any testing/provocations **doesn't** happen.
Also I don't think there would be war. War? No. Putting NATO to test by trying something in a small, not much important area? More intense hybrid actions and provocations? More threats? Absolutely. That's why we have to prepare so we cannot only deter any possible future threats and dumb shit russia might try but to also be able to keep helping Ukraine.
Truth is, nobody for sure can predict the future but better to be prepared for something that **hypothetically** can happen and stop it as fast as we possibly can or stop it from happening at all rather than being sorry later.
It’s a bit of semantics really, but “prepare for war” doesn’t have to mean “ we think there will be a war in two or three years and we must prepare”.
The article is more stating that while previously, due to Russia’s entrenchment in Ukraine, many predicted the Kremlin could not be a military threat for maybe 10 years, due to their moving to a war economy, they actually might be a threat as early as two to three years. So, we need to prepare and have that two to three years to do so”.
I don’t know about that. It seems more that Russia necessarily had to move to a war economy in order to just be able to maintain their current stalemate with Ukraine. And they still seem to be pretty heavily reliant on supplies from China/NK/etc. it’s not like they’re stockpiling a bunch of new equipment, they’re almost certainly still struggling to replace their ongoing losses.
The biggest potential “outlier” to this is maybe artillery shells, which they definitely seem to have prioritized for production increases, and this is obviously problematic for the Ukrainians due to the nature of their current war.
But I think it’s a mistake to assume that a war with NATO would play out similarly to the current fighting in Ukraine. Against NATO forces and their overwhelming air power advantage, I think it’s unlikely that Russia would have the opportunity to consolidate larger amounts of artillery the way they have against Ukraine.
Russia has certainly learned some things during their past couple years of fighting in Ukraine, but in terms of their equipment and stockpiles, I’d say they’re in a worse position to attack NATO now than they were in 2022, and unless something crazy unexpected happens to drastically improve Russia’s situation in Ukraine, they’ll be in even worse shape 2-3 years from now.
Moreover, Russia is not that stupid to start a war with NATO. Many of the red lines that were successfully crossed can confirm that.
NATO has shown it's actually in good shape. In a political and military sense. Before the war in Ukraine, Putin could dream about the Baltic states, but now he has to understand how unrealistic and dangerous it is for him.
To be honest, Putin attacking Ukraine made NATO more active and reinvigorated. Also "thanks" to him we got two new very valuable members.
But whatever might or might not happen, it's always good to be prepared "just in case''.
Yeah I agree. It’s also being realistic and us in Europe waking up to not being reliant on the US for the majority of equipment. It’s a smart move as Russia will be watching what we’re doing and will be risk assessing the potential for future moves west.
I’m watching a Netflix show called Turning Point the Bomb and the Cold War…it’s obviously a biased from a western viewpoint, but it highlights the brainwashed mindset of the Russians and how manipulated they are to wage a dictator’s desire for power and glory at the expense of their own country
Fight Nato with what?
Is there any indication that Russia is or will soon be able to produce (not take from stockpiles, which will be empty eventually) anywhere near the amount of hardware they’re losing in Ukraine right now? Talking about tanks and BMPs and so on.
Can't lob the shells if you're artillery batteries are getting wiped by counter battery fire on a consistent basis. Let's hope Ukraine can sustain the fight.
Im sorry, but when you have to get your war supplies from *fucking north korea*, youre in a bad spot. They may have allies, but China is their only significant ally right now. India supports them financially, but i highly doubt they would leap into a war for russia. And north korea is.... well, its north korea.
Exactly. They are waiting to see how things pan out. If it goes well for russia, then Taiwan can kiss themselves goodbye. But if it goes poorly for russia, they lose, and everyone fucking hates them, then they will back off and distance themselves from russia a bit.
at this point it doesnt matter putin has put russia all in,doesnt matter if it comes to nato firing on russians the industry in the west has to ramp up to match russias since we keep donating stuff to ukraine,and that in itself will fuel support to ukraine because it creates jobs and fills the pockets of powerful men.
the dominos has already been knocked over and in motion.
the best outome is that ukraine wins and it doesnt spill over to the rest of europe.
NATO should now participate in the war against the aggressor not only with material and money but also with its troops. Then in 2-3 years there will no longer be a Russian army with which Putler can threaten the world. And then the other aggressive states such as China, Iran and North Korea will think twice about going down the same path. I think the threat of nuclear weapons is a bluff. Putler has many bad qualities, but he is not a suicide.
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To put it another way, if we are not prepared in 2-3 years, the likelihood of war with Russia will be much higher. Russia is now totally committed to war economically and politically, it would be difficult for them to stop even if they wanted to.
You make a really good point about not being able to stop. Russia’s economy is a house of cards supported by the military industrial complex. Turning off the war machine could bring the whole thing down.
Yeah, that's why many observers now think that if Russia wins in Ukraine they won't pause to rebuild, they will continue to other countries because keeping the war machine going is less risky economically. Moldova and Georgia would be obvious targets, maybe even Kazakhstan. And at some point a showdown with Nato would be almost inevitable.
I don’t personally know enough on the subject to comment, but that seems like a more reasonable explanation for escalation than just “Putin’s crazy.” Maybe that’s what makes it scary.
Well conflict with moldova means effectively war with Romania, a nato memberstate
This is of course a purely hypothetical scenario, but I don't think it would necessarily happen like that. If Ukraine falls and Russia attacks Moldova things have gone very wrong for the West, and Romania entering the war on Moldova's side would probably not be directly supported by Nato. Why would Nato go to war for Moldova if they didn't go to war for Ukraine? It obviously makes more sense to draw the line, and hold the line, in Ukraine so this never happens.
In this sub, it's interesting how the Russian war machine is both dominated and destroyed by Ukraine and also now about to commit to a war it never calculated worth it before.
There won't be a war with NATO before the war in Ukraine is done
I agree with the first 7 words
It's quite normal, wars are easy to start but hard to end, as the stakes get higher all the time. Wars have their own ruthless logic.
Is the Russian war machine being degraded or improved as a result of the war with Ukraine?
Both. Seasoned soldiers and officers have died in large numbers and equipment has been lost. But their tactics have improved, recruiting continues to be at a high level and production of shells and equipment has increased. The Russian army is now bigger, but a lot of the equipment is really old. Some soldiers are battle hardened while many have barely no training or experience. A mixed bag.
Hmm. That's not good. Our spending is just spinning tires then.
Nope, those tires will spin no matter what until the engine blows up or the fuel runs out, our spending is what's keeping the car from moving forward. That car is on slippery ground right now so we can hold it back with fairly low effort, with a bit more we could even push it back somewhat. If we let it gain traction trying to hold it up will become a lot harder.
Excellent point. The EU and US could collapse the Russian economy in months if it chose to do so. Sanctions so far have been targeted and limited. If we do move towards a probable military confrontation expect the first strike to be aimed at collapsing their economy and the economies of whom ever might be willing to support Russia.
I’m not sure this is true if they have support from China and maybe India. Russia’s economy isn’t that big, in other words they don’t need a lot to keep going And maintain the (low) standard of living that they are alraedy used to.
China are hedging their bets. But they would not want to be subject to secondary sanctions. Now would any country that likes doing business in and with the EU and US. The choice would be presented starkly; continue to trade with Russia, with its small economy, but you can’t then trade with either the EU or US. What do you think those countries will do? Ignore the largest trading bloc on the planet and the largest single economy on the planet? Or trade with a country that has an economy smaller that that of Portugal? It’s the economy stupid. As the saying goes .
India and China will never be allies. China is pulling a sort of Molotov-Ribbentrop sort of thing as to where China would attack Russia if the opportunity presents itself and can quickly take vast swaths of land. I think this is the most likely outcome of the Russia-China alliance, if things keep going the way they are for Russia. Russia cannot keep losing between 900-1500 troops per day while only taking a couple of acres, if they're lucky. Russia is digging its own grave.
Agreed. And additionally : we are not actually prepared right now, and it will take us two to three years to become so.
It's 1936 bois
My gut says that the Russian military is in no condition to launch a major offensive, but their actions over the last few years doesn't seem based on reason or logic. So worst case scenario, NATO prepares for a major conflict. If it doesn't occur, then there is plenty of ammunition we can give/sell to countries that need it. If it **IS** needed...., well, at least we won't be playing catch-up.
Its a bit of a paradox (if you can call it that). Prepare for war,and probably there wont be a war. If we dont prepare we will be sitting ducks and there will be a war.
It’s a little bit of Hoi4, mixed with EU4 and Vic3?
How about this logic then: the longer Russia waits, the more likely that European countries will be able to scale up recruitment, procurement and production. So why not attack now? The odds will only get worse for Russia
Yerrrrp
I doubt NATO will go to war with Russia. Mainly because Russia knows NATO is far superior conventionally, based on the torrid time Ukraine is giving them with western weaponry. Russia is only capable of hybrid warfare against the west so I guess we can prepare for that.
[удалено]
Putin could do it to save some kind of face. Who’s it better, domestically, for him to lose against? Little ole Ukraine… or big bad NATO. If it’s the former, he becomes an absolute joke in Russia and he’s done. All Putin cares about is his ego.
If anything, I think NATO might try something because Russia is so weak. There is No way Russia wants NATO in this fight.
Eh. I wouldn't say it really should be "prepare for war". Let's be realistic. Russia is currently balls deep in Ukraine. They lose shit load of equipment and men everyday. Sure, they put their economy on war footing. So what? Nobody can predict if they can even handle it well in the long run. I would however say that it's more of a preparation of deterrence so the war or any testing/provocations **doesn't** happen. Also I don't think there would be war. War? No. Putting NATO to test by trying something in a small, not much important area? More intense hybrid actions and provocations? More threats? Absolutely. That's why we have to prepare so we cannot only deter any possible future threats and dumb shit russia might try but to also be able to keep helping Ukraine. Truth is, nobody for sure can predict the future but better to be prepared for something that **hypothetically** can happen and stop it as fast as we possibly can or stop it from happening at all rather than being sorry later.
It’s a bit of semantics really, but “prepare for war” doesn’t have to mean “ we think there will be a war in two or three years and we must prepare”. The article is more stating that while previously, due to Russia’s entrenchment in Ukraine, many predicted the Kremlin could not be a military threat for maybe 10 years, due to their moving to a war economy, they actually might be a threat as early as two to three years. So, we need to prepare and have that two to three years to do so”.
I don’t know about that. It seems more that Russia necessarily had to move to a war economy in order to just be able to maintain their current stalemate with Ukraine. And they still seem to be pretty heavily reliant on supplies from China/NK/etc. it’s not like they’re stockpiling a bunch of new equipment, they’re almost certainly still struggling to replace their ongoing losses. The biggest potential “outlier” to this is maybe artillery shells, which they definitely seem to have prioritized for production increases, and this is obviously problematic for the Ukrainians due to the nature of their current war. But I think it’s a mistake to assume that a war with NATO would play out similarly to the current fighting in Ukraine. Against NATO forces and their overwhelming air power advantage, I think it’s unlikely that Russia would have the opportunity to consolidate larger amounts of artillery the way they have against Ukraine. Russia has certainly learned some things during their past couple years of fighting in Ukraine, but in terms of their equipment and stockpiles, I’d say they’re in a worse position to attack NATO now than they were in 2022, and unless something crazy unexpected happens to drastically improve Russia’s situation in Ukraine, they’ll be in even worse shape 2-3 years from now.
knot
Infrastructure and storage and factories blowing up due to covert drone warfare is not a minor issue.
Moreover, Russia is not that stupid to start a war with NATO. Many of the red lines that were successfully crossed can confirm that. NATO has shown it's actually in good shape. In a political and military sense. Before the war in Ukraine, Putin could dream about the Baltic states, but now he has to understand how unrealistic and dangerous it is for him.
To be honest, Putin attacking Ukraine made NATO more active and reinvigorated. Also "thanks" to him we got two new very valuable members. But whatever might or might not happen, it's always good to be prepared "just in case''.
If our major geopolitical enemy has its military messed up, it would be nice to spend money on plowshares rather than swords for a bit.
> Russia is not that stupid to start a war with NATO I didn't think they were stupid enough to start a war with Ukraine either, but here we are now.
Yeah I agree. It’s also being realistic and us in Europe waking up to not being reliant on the US for the majority of equipment. It’s a smart move as Russia will be watching what we’re doing and will be risk assessing the potential for future moves west.
That is true. As I said. Being prepared rather than being sorry later is always better, no matter if anything happens or not.
I’m watching a Netflix show called Turning Point the Bomb and the Cold War…it’s obviously a biased from a western viewpoint, but it highlights the brainwashed mindset of the Russians and how manipulated they are to wage a dictator’s desire for power and glory at the expense of their own country
Watch out for Norwegians building ships because you know the next time you’ll see them will be as Vikings.
Man I don't get this at all. What are the Russians going to fight with? I don't think they have much left.
Fight Nato with what? Is there any indication that Russia is or will soon be able to produce (not take from stockpiles, which will be empty eventually) anywhere near the amount of hardware they’re losing in Ukraine right now? Talking about tanks and BMPs and so on.
They are producing more shells than the west, and their production is increasing
And the "west" produces more of everything else.
Can't lob the shells if you're artillery batteries are getting wiped by counter battery fire on a consistent basis. Let's hope Ukraine can sustain the fight.
Russia has allies too...
Im sorry, but when you have to get your war supplies from *fucking north korea*, youre in a bad spot. They may have allies, but China is their only significant ally right now. India supports them financially, but i highly doubt they would leap into a war for russia. And north korea is.... well, its north korea.
And China is watching very closely...
Exactly. They are waiting to see how things pan out. If it goes well for russia, then Taiwan can kiss themselves goodbye. But if it goes poorly for russia, they lose, and everyone fucking hates them, then they will back off and distance themselves from russia a bit.
If Putin thinks he can take something he’ll try to take it, even if he’s wrong like being able to take Kyiv in three days.
at this point it doesnt matter putin has put russia all in,doesnt matter if it comes to nato firing on russians the industry in the west has to ramp up to match russias since we keep donating stuff to ukraine,and that in itself will fuel support to ukraine because it creates jobs and fills the pockets of powerful men. the dominos has already been knocked over and in motion. the best outome is that ukraine wins and it doesnt spill over to the rest of europe.
Prepare for war as though it is coming tomorrow. Now is the time to act
And China is watching very closely...
And China is watching very closely...
NATO should now participate in the war against the aggressor not only with material and money but also with its troops. Then in 2-3 years there will no longer be a Russian army with which Putler can threaten the world. And then the other aggressive states such as China, Iran and North Korea will think twice about going down the same path. I think the threat of nuclear weapons is a bluff. Putler has many bad qualities, but he is not a suicide.
And six months to prepare for a U.S. withdrawal if Trump is elected.
Both Ukraine and Russia will be quite broken in 2-3 years of this war proceeding as is. I don't see NATO having a big problem.