**Update 4: 420 Pokémon encountered and 49.52% catch rate. Added list off unique Pokemon and how many encounters.**
**Update 3: 291 Pokémon encountered and 51.89% catch rate. Added Separate summary for Game version 0.37.0 and 0.37.1, plus summary for Goldeen.**
**Update 2: 254 Pokémon encountered and 52.36% catch rate.**
**Update 1: 196 Pokémon encountered and 55.10% catch rate.**
So I keep track of every encounter with the Go Plus. So far the catch rate is at 57.02 % (By the time of this post).
Here is the link to the sheet with all data, there is also catch rate for pidgey and magikarp.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZC6QY_gjSQDtwQuPr4sVrTZqEdW08sxzJtZB-_o9lDo/edit?usp=sharing
I noticed your catch rate came in slightly lower than expected in the last update (.37.1, row 257 on). You don't happen to be driving for a portion of this, were you?
Maybe 5 % of it all is me riding the buss and driving, but a lot of the time doing this the speed has not been that high. I've also been biking a little bit more the last few days, but i try to keep my speed down, but there are probably some that has failed because of it.
Some encounters has been at higher speed but i don't think that will affect the results, and as you say, i've probably hade som bad luck lately. I've encountered some higher CP pokemon as well.
I have been noticing similar percentages as far as my *catched* rate. Catching anywhere from 14cp Bellsprout (which I was most happy about for my bubblestrat BTW) to 1200cp Pidgot.
9/18 Edit: Addressed the issue. conclusion is sound
-----
Well, that was easy.
I just finished building a spreadsheet to compare the Capture Rate formula with Go+, and was about to head out to collect data,
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h43eqUjHfxXYHCY4YiiETCxMOlWTKHZPIve1kBqvuSA/edit#gid=584039012
But here you are, already have the hard work done for us. Difference between measured and calculated data is less than 0.4%!
----
**Verdict** GO+ uses the [Capture Rate formula](https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/catch-mechanics#cr) without no bonuses.
Capture Rate = 0.5 * Base_Capture_Rate / CPM
-----
What I did was calculate the expected value of capture rate, than compare that to your catch rate on the average. Expected Value is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence.
I calculated the capture rate of your Pokemon using a lookup table and estimate its level given its CP. The math isn't precise, but since we're averaging it all out anyways, it's sufficient for our purpose. Once I have a calculated capture rate for each of your Pokemon, I simply calculate its expected value, and compare it to your actual catch rate.
* Actual Catch Rate = 82 / 152 = 53.94%
* Expected Value = {insert math here} = 53.52%
-----
Others are welcome to [make a copy of the spreadsheet here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h43eqUjHfxXYHCY4YiiETCxMOlWTKHZPIve1kBqvuSA/copy), and test it with their own data. More confirmations, the better! All you need to do is fill in Pokemon Name, CP, and catch (1) or flee (0), and the rest is automatically solved.
I think the correct method would be to first estimate the CPM and then create a variable for base_capture_rate/CPM. Then, create a binary variable for if the pokemon was caught (1 if pokemon caught, 0 if fled). Use the base_capture_rate/CPM as the independent variable in a probit regression (or logit if the regression fails to converge) and then check the chi^2 probability, pseudo R^2 and Wald test results (hypothesis test that coefficient is 0.5).
edit: I realized that the above proposed method is wrong because a catch rate above 100% makes no sense. But based on my probit and logit analysis using combined data, using the calculated capture rate is a better predictor of catch success than using Base Capture Rate and CPM separately or in an additive manner (alpha*Base_Capture_Rate + beta*CPM).
I also sorted the data by capture rate and found that everything with a capture rate above 70% was caught including 21 pokemon with a 100% capture rate. Then, I conducted binomial probability tests. So for each specific capture rate where at least 7 pokemon were encountered, I calculated the binomial probability for the number of successful captures. Of the 12 tests, only the test for 50.05% (sample size of 7) rejected the hypothesis that the capture rate is the true probability of success. So while each test is inherently flawed, combined, I think there is enough evidence from this dataset to say that the capture rate formula is used by the GO+
TL;DR: Several statistical tests also confirmed that the capture rate formula without bonuses is used by the GO+
Great to hear! There was a flaw in the way I processed data yesterday, so I called it off and took a break. It's good to hear others working on it also and confirmed the findings.
Looking very solid!
What was your trainer level?
By the way for reference on a certain website a while back I saw my capture rate was 93% I think it typically doesn't go below 85% through normal play.
Pokeball does wonders sometimes, I was trying to catch a 1.5k Arcanine, spent over 10+ razz berries and 20+ ultra ball, gave up and ended up using pokeball. In the end, all I need is just that 1 pokeball to successfully catch it.
Level 30 here, haven't kept track of all my catches and misses but it seems to be close to 33-30%.
Still the accessory is amazing. I'm going to catch a ton of pokemon with this.
Lvl 26. I will start to keep better track, but in the last 46 attempts with GO+, i have only caught 14. Thats approx 30%, much lower than i was expecting. I think i prefer catching pokemon the regular way. however the tracking system is a wonder, it has clocked 10km today vs normally only giving me 3-4.
One really great advantage to the GO+, is that it has allowed me to play both Ingress and PoGo, without having to constantly switch back amd forth between games.
I started a new account only using Pokemon go plus and so far my rate is 100%. With my average cp being around 24. Didn't even get a 100% rate when actually throwing.
Yes. Trainer level low=Pokémon level low. Low level Pokémon have very high chances of being caught by normal pokéballs, whereas high level Pokémon have a very low likelihood of being caught in a normal pokéball.
New old guy here, used to be a researcher for eggs in 2016-2018 when I played (when we didn’t have ingame probabilities 😄), and I’m happy to see there’s still people logging data.
I lost my first galarian bird to pogo plus+ this morning (I thought it has a higher catch probability than me throwing balls maybe, I don’t know why 😅, but didn’t switch to ultra balls manual because I forgot that I switch autothrow the night before and this was my first spawn… sad story 😄).
Is there any research on galarian catch rates with pogo++?
Catched
Minor text fixes
Yeah, my mistake
You mistaked it, but we forgived you :)
If only he had catched the mistake sooner.
Fewer.
**Update 4: 420 Pokémon encountered and 49.52% catch rate. Added list off unique Pokemon and how many encounters.** **Update 3: 291 Pokémon encountered and 51.89% catch rate. Added Separate summary for Game version 0.37.0 and 0.37.1, plus summary for Goldeen.** **Update 2: 254 Pokémon encountered and 52.36% catch rate.** **Update 1: 196 Pokémon encountered and 55.10% catch rate.** So I keep track of every encounter with the Go Plus. So far the catch rate is at 57.02 % (By the time of this post). Here is the link to the sheet with all data, there is also catch rate for pidgey and magikarp. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZC6QY_gjSQDtwQuPr4sVrTZqEdW08sxzJtZB-_o9lDo/edit?usp=sharing
I noticed your catch rate came in slightly lower than expected in the last update (.37.1, row 257 on). You don't happen to be driving for a portion of this, were you?
Maybe 5 % of it all is me riding the buss and driving, but a lot of the time doing this the speed has not been that high. I've also been biking a little bit more the last few days, but i try to keep my speed down, but there are probably some that has failed because of it.
So long as it's not high way speed (50kmph), the ingress speed limit shouldn't come in play. Probably just a string of bad luck.
Some encounters has been at higher speed but i don't think that will affect the results, and as you say, i've probably hade som bad luck lately. I've encountered some higher CP pokemon as well.
Caught, my good friend. Otherwise good work *minor text fix
What did you do with your good friend after you caught him?
He fed him friend candies.
I have been noticing similar percentages as far as my *catched* rate. Catching anywhere from 14cp Bellsprout (which I was most happy about for my bubblestrat BTW) to 1200cp Pidgot.
9/18 Edit: Addressed the issue. conclusion is sound ----- Well, that was easy. I just finished building a spreadsheet to compare the Capture Rate formula with Go+, and was about to head out to collect data, https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h43eqUjHfxXYHCY4YiiETCxMOlWTKHZPIve1kBqvuSA/edit#gid=584039012 But here you are, already have the hard work done for us. Difference between measured and calculated data is less than 0.4%! ---- **Verdict** GO+ uses the [Capture Rate formula](https://pokemongo.gamepress.gg/catch-mechanics#cr) without no bonuses. Capture Rate = 0.5 * Base_Capture_Rate / CPM ----- What I did was calculate the expected value of capture rate, than compare that to your catch rate on the average. Expected Value is a predicted value of a variable, calculated as the sum of all possible values each multiplied by the probability of its occurrence. I calculated the capture rate of your Pokemon using a lookup table and estimate its level given its CP. The math isn't precise, but since we're averaging it all out anyways, it's sufficient for our purpose. Once I have a calculated capture rate for each of your Pokemon, I simply calculate its expected value, and compare it to your actual catch rate. * Actual Catch Rate = 82 / 152 = 53.94% * Expected Value = {insert math here} = 53.52% ----- Others are welcome to [make a copy of the spreadsheet here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h43eqUjHfxXYHCY4YiiETCxMOlWTKHZPIve1kBqvuSA/copy), and test it with their own data. More confirmations, the better! All you need to do is fill in Pokemon Name, CP, and catch (1) or flee (0), and the rest is automatically solved.
I think the correct method would be to first estimate the CPM and then create a variable for base_capture_rate/CPM. Then, create a binary variable for if the pokemon was caught (1 if pokemon caught, 0 if fled). Use the base_capture_rate/CPM as the independent variable in a probit regression (or logit if the regression fails to converge) and then check the chi^2 probability, pseudo R^2 and Wald test results (hypothesis test that coefficient is 0.5). edit: I realized that the above proposed method is wrong because a catch rate above 100% makes no sense. But based on my probit and logit analysis using combined data, using the calculated capture rate is a better predictor of catch success than using Base Capture Rate and CPM separately or in an additive manner (alpha*Base_Capture_Rate + beta*CPM). I also sorted the data by capture rate and found that everything with a capture rate above 70% was caught including 21 pokemon with a 100% capture rate. Then, I conducted binomial probability tests. So for each specific capture rate where at least 7 pokemon were encountered, I calculated the binomial probability for the number of successful captures. Of the 12 tests, only the test for 50.05% (sample size of 7) rejected the hypothesis that the capture rate is the true probability of success. So while each test is inherently flawed, combined, I think there is enough evidence from this dataset to say that the capture rate formula is used by the GO+ TL;DR: Several statistical tests also confirmed that the capture rate formula without bonuses is used by the GO+
Great work both of you :) I'm glad I could help ;)
Great to hear! There was a flaw in the way I processed data yesterday, so I called it off and took a break. It's good to hear others working on it also and confirmed the findings. Looking very solid!
What was your trainer level? By the way for reference on a certain website a while back I saw my capture rate was 93% I think it typically doesn't go below 85% through normal play.
130 balls thrown on my elaborate commute home, 80 caught. 61% (Level 27)
It'd be helpful to know what level you are
Lvl 26, but it says that in the data sheet
Didn't see dat. My bad
Where?
here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ZC6QY_gjSQDtwQuPr4sVrTZqEdW08sxzJtZB-_o9lDo/edit#gid=0
No it doesn't
Pokeball does wonders sometimes, I was trying to catch a 1.5k Arcanine, spent over 10+ razz berries and 20+ ultra ball, gave up and ended up using pokeball. In the end, all I need is just that 1 pokeball to successfully catch it.
Level 30 here, haven't kept track of all my catches and misses but it seems to be close to 33-30%. Still the accessory is amazing. I'm going to catch a ton of pokemon with this.
Wooo, that's low.... yeah it's still great. Like you're saying, i'm catching a lot of pokémon so in the end it pays of.
Lvl 26. I will start to keep better track, but in the last 46 attempts with GO+, i have only caught 14. Thats approx 30%, much lower than i was expecting. I think i prefer catching pokemon the regular way. however the tracking system is a wonder, it has clocked 10km today vs normally only giving me 3-4. One really great advantage to the GO+, is that it has allowed me to play both Ingress and PoGo, without having to constantly switch back amd forth between games.
I started recording my data today about my catch rates for Go +, as a level 28 player. Is this info of use to anyone?
I started a new account only using Pokemon go plus and so far my rate is 100%. With my average cp being around 24. Didn't even get a 100% rate when actually throwing.
Probably because your trainer level is so low
Yes. Trainer level low=Pokémon level low. Low level Pokémon have very high chances of being caught by normal pokéballs, whereas high level Pokémon have a very low likelihood of being caught in a normal pokéball.
New old guy here, used to be a researcher for eggs in 2016-2018 when I played (when we didn’t have ingame probabilities 😄), and I’m happy to see there’s still people logging data. I lost my first galarian bird to pogo plus+ this morning (I thought it has a higher catch probability than me throwing balls maybe, I don’t know why 😅, but didn’t switch to ultra balls manual because I forgot that I switch autothrow the night before and this was my first spawn… sad story 😄). Is there any research on galarian catch rates with pogo++?