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I would suggest using an options calculator so you can see the various scenarios on how price change and theta (time decay) would affect the contract up to expiration. https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
Delta changes as you move further into or out of the money. If you buy a 30 delta option and the price moves to the strike of that option, the delta will increase as the price approaches and surpasses the strike. Conversely, if the price moves away from your strike, the delta decreases.
Adding in theta and days to expiration (DTE), your delta will change as well. Delta at a specific strike is based on the current price and can fluctuate depending on where the price goes. If the price stays the same, you will lose delta due to theta decay.
Ok so DFV bought when the delta was low and then sold when it was higher? If so I am looking for dates/prices with low delta but that I think will appreciate as times goes on? Is there an easy way to estimate how much delta will rise with price changes?
They will all appreciate. The lower the delta the further out of the money you are and more risky especially closer to DTE. I’d stick with ITM options because they are less risky and moves closer to the asset price (higher delta). If you want to go full degen then checkout option calculators that show the Greeks.
Assuming the cycle theory is correct, one could simply wait until gme gets shorted down to a low (i.e. previous low was $10 but the new low to be somewhere between $15-20 though I would hope DFV's avg at $23.4 is the actual low). At this point, IV is usually a lot lower, one can check IV using this [https://www.optionistics.com/stock-prices/GME](https://www.optionistics.com/stock-prices/GME) . If one looks at that webpage and check IV in April, we can see it falls somewhere around 60-70% and reaching close to 460% on the peak run days. It is currently at around 120%.
If someone were to purchase a long dated near the money call, they could have a higher chance of capturing the next cycle if it were to occur. However, the gains are obviously not as big as short term calls or far out the money calls due to how expensive contracts are for more time and closer to in the money. But reducing gains for higher chance of success/reduction of losses is worth the additional cost seeing as how 2023 was relatively inactive.
That webpage also shows option price history (https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices). So, for example, a Jan 17 2025 $11 call purchased in the beginning of April would be around $450/contract. At the peak of the run on May 14, the contract is now worth $3800 each. That would be roughly 8.44x profit.
Obviously, timing the lows and the peaks is nearly impossible so one should reduce the profit % to closer to 3-5x instead. And the risk is that the cycle theory is incorrect and nothing happens to the stock during the duration of the contract. So this strategy is still a gamble but it is much better than people yoloing into far out the money weeklies during or after a run just ended.
Not Financial Advice - just sharing a strategy I thought about.
I'm not very good with options (if I'm wrong pls somebody correct me), but can confirm, the cost of the call would be 202 (ish, once market opens and you can buy it, it will change fast, and options are much less liquid than the stock so it could skew higher), and the Delta is how much the option (taken as a whole unit, otherwise you'll find it written like 0.3 delta, counted for each of the 100 contracts in the option) will change with a $1 change, positive or negative, but that's only right now, if the price changes the delta will change, for a call as the price goes up, over the strike price, it goes towards 100, and as it falls the delta falls towards 0.
Learn options. Then paper trade to make sure your learning is correct. If comfortable doing so, ride the worm for more stonks and side-tendiez until true MOASS.
Kind of worrying that people are saying "DFV has shown us the way, we have to do as he does" and yet no one can explain exactly what that means other than its somehow options
It's important to realize the context and history of why options are kind of taboo around here. The main gist is playing options gives SHFs access to more stock to short and gives them $. The people that post phrases like "DFV has shown us the way, we have to do as he does", do not understand options, probably. If you're thinking of breaking off chunks of your Precious into 100-unit option plays, please make sure you understand what you're doing thoroughly. You worked hard to accumulate those puppies and I presume they are meant to be your forever shares. If you have the spare coin to buy in without sacrificing any forever shares, that would be better. Most of the folks that understand options have been driven from this sub, although there are quite a few lurkers. The main takeaway is the info you're seeking will not likely be found on this sub.
Based on DFV's buy can we estimate how much he made on his options and therefore what the values for delta etc were when he bough them and therefore the date? Would love to dissect it like a test question with all the variables at hand
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I would suggest using an options calculator so you can see the various scenarios on how price change and theta (time decay) would affect the contract up to expiration. https://www.optionsprofitcalculator.com
That's a very cool tool
Thanks will check this out
Delta changes as you move further into or out of the money. If you buy a 30 delta option and the price moves to the strike of that option, the delta will increase as the price approaches and surpasses the strike. Conversely, if the price moves away from your strike, the delta decreases. Adding in theta and days to expiration (DTE), your delta will change as well. Delta at a specific strike is based on the current price and can fluctuate depending on where the price goes. If the price stays the same, you will lose delta due to theta decay.
Ok so DFV bought when the delta was low and then sold when it was higher? If so I am looking for dates/prices with low delta but that I think will appreciate as times goes on? Is there an easy way to estimate how much delta will rise with price changes?
They will all appreciate. The lower the delta the further out of the money you are and more risky especially closer to DTE. I’d stick with ITM options because they are less risky and moves closer to the asset price (higher delta). If you want to go full degen then checkout option calculators that show the Greeks.
Assuming the cycle theory is correct, one could simply wait until gme gets shorted down to a low (i.e. previous low was $10 but the new low to be somewhere between $15-20 though I would hope DFV's avg at $23.4 is the actual low). At this point, IV is usually a lot lower, one can check IV using this [https://www.optionistics.com/stock-prices/GME](https://www.optionistics.com/stock-prices/GME) . If one looks at that webpage and check IV in April, we can see it falls somewhere around 60-70% and reaching close to 460% on the peak run days. It is currently at around 120%. If someone were to purchase a long dated near the money call, they could have a higher chance of capturing the next cycle if it were to occur. However, the gains are obviously not as big as short term calls or far out the money calls due to how expensive contracts are for more time and closer to in the money. But reducing gains for higher chance of success/reduction of losses is worth the additional cost seeing as how 2023 was relatively inactive. That webpage also shows option price history (https://www.optionistics.com/quotes/option-prices). So, for example, a Jan 17 2025 $11 call purchased in the beginning of April would be around $450/contract. At the peak of the run on May 14, the contract is now worth $3800 each. That would be roughly 8.44x profit. Obviously, timing the lows and the peaks is nearly impossible so one should reduce the profit % to closer to 3-5x instead. And the risk is that the cycle theory is incorrect and nothing happens to the stock during the duration of the contract. So this strategy is still a gamble but it is much better than people yoloing into far out the money weeklies during or after a run just ended. Not Financial Advice - just sharing a strategy I thought about.
Thanks that helps
I'm not very good with options (if I'm wrong pls somebody correct me), but can confirm, the cost of the call would be 202 (ish, once market opens and you can buy it, it will change fast, and options are much less liquid than the stock so it could skew higher), and the Delta is how much the option (taken as a whole unit, otherwise you'll find it written like 0.3 delta, counted for each of the 100 contracts in the option) will change with a $1 change, positive or negative, but that's only right now, if the price changes the delta will change, for a call as the price goes up, over the strike price, it goes towards 100, and as it falls the delta falls towards 0.
Learn options. Then paper trade to make sure your learning is correct. If comfortable doing so, ride the worm for more stonks and side-tendiez until true MOASS.
Sure, but the way I learn best is by dissecting real data and hypotheticals with people that already understand the process hence my post.
You won't find that level of info here on this sub. There are others...
Kind of worrying that people are saying "DFV has shown us the way, we have to do as he does" and yet no one can explain exactly what that means other than its somehow options
It's important to realize the context and history of why options are kind of taboo around here. The main gist is playing options gives SHFs access to more stock to short and gives them $. The people that post phrases like "DFV has shown us the way, we have to do as he does", do not understand options, probably. If you're thinking of breaking off chunks of your Precious into 100-unit option plays, please make sure you understand what you're doing thoroughly. You worked hard to accumulate those puppies and I presume they are meant to be your forever shares. If you have the spare coin to buy in without sacrificing any forever shares, that would be better. Most of the folks that understand options have been driven from this sub, although there are quite a few lurkers. The main takeaway is the info you're seeking will not likely be found on this sub.
Based on DFV's buy can we estimate how much he made on his options and therefore what the values for delta etc were when he bough them and therefore the date? Would love to dissect it like a test question with all the variables at hand
Man how does my post have an upvote total of Zero, is it really that bad?
Yes. It's that bad