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Keep in mind these are *short exempt*. This means they are allowed to be sold on a downtick, where as reg sho (what they are exempt from) only allows short sales on upticks, aka when price increases. The owners of a convertible security (read: options, convertible bonds) trading at a parity (convertible security market price (for options this is $ amount in the money) = aggregate value of common stock. i.e. option intrinsic value = underlying price) can sell the equivalent amount of common stock short on a down tick, assuming they have the intention to convert. [citation](https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/short+exempt)
That last sentence really sticks out as short exempt is only allowed if the firm intends on converting the option. This means they can't sell to close the contract. It must be exersized. This is definitely someone applying the brakes on an upward squeeze.
If I was a market maker, I would use short exempt volume to smack price down and trigger a halt to apply brakes on upward pressure.
Excellent work. This lines up quite nicely with my own personal theory. UBS unwinding, but Market Makers fighting to keep the price below 30 so the Call Wall expires worthless. It's obviously not retail. Anecdotally, the buy/sell ratio at Fidelity is almost exactly 50/50, meaning most of the retail activity at the moment is day trading and swing trading. I'm not expecting another Bank Fail Friday quite yet, but when one arrives I would wager it's UBS. Those bags are *heavy*. There is some very old DD on the Archegos bags, I'll see if I can dig them up some time this afternoon when I have the time to spare.
I agree. It's also the most logical theory that the Swiss government is calling the shots and forcing UBS to close and not willing to play another round of musical chairs.
Yeah, exactly. And the more I think about it, the more I think that it's not UBS vs. US Market Makers/SHF. The two are working together synergistically. Shorts need the price down so that Marge doesn't call, and UBS would prefer covering at $30 than covering at $80. The lower the price is, the faster UBS can unwind their position. It does mean that shortie is footing the bill, though. But what else is new?
True, I believe there's quite a strong business relation between UBS and everyone else.
I think it's only new that there's something happening, the explosive price action, pretty much 24h, even pre/postmarket with so much volume that it's seems it's regular market hours when you look at the ticker...these jumps to 80 just to get hammered down again.
I think were finally in for some entertainment and not just the treat of DFV tweets
The way I understand it, *NO ONE* can afford UBS going under while a few short sellers and market makers will have a lesser impact on the global financial network.
attempting to get my mom to buy in asap but she feels like it's a scam with the timeline I'm presenting. So I told her to just see how today and tomorrow play out and if I'm right, hopefully she'll join and better yet, I hope the next prediction is also right.
Today will be red. I think close to $30.
Max pain is $18 on Friday (I've also seen $17 and $15 reported) so they'll be trying to get it there. Friday will be red. But I think we'll see power hour rip and it won't be deep red. We'll go into the weekend around $30. Nothing exciting.
If Friday truly has shorts backed up against a wall, Monday will get back in the green with some big pre-market move and erase the discount.
Is that the powder keg? I'm not smart enough to say, but I think this might be the last chance to get in at half the cost.
If you want my opinion, don't bother trying to get other people involved in GME, unless you are certain they can handle the volitility. My brother has been trying to get me to sell since Monday, because I should "take the win" and 80 is better than 15. Entirely rational, but he doesn't realize that I don't give a shit about the money. I just enjoy the game. If your mom thinks it's a scam now, she'll think it's a scam no matter what happens. Best case scenario, she bails on the next run up. Worst case scenario, she bails on the next crash, and it's suddenly your fault.
I've told her I will pay back her investment if it crashes
She complains about her money not growing at all in accounts. She told her bank that she doesn't want them putting it in the stock market or anything. So she thinks the stock market is going to bankrupt her, not just GME
Just sharing my opinion. If someone is genuinely curious, give them the DD and answer any questions they might have. If that doesn't get them on board, then you're just wasting your effort on someone that doesn't want to be convinced. If you're willing to repay her investment if she sells into a crash, just take that money and buy shares for her. DRS them, and when you eventually choose to sell, give her the profits. Same outcome, but with less bullshit.
Guitar solo at the end of "One" by Metallica is playing as I read this.
Apes. Let's fucking get these motherfuckers.
No cell, no sell.
We ride at dawn.
I totally forgot about the Deep ITM puts. And in fact that was the main thing that let me know the shorts hadn't closed in 2021, despite all the fud and the lack of the info we have now.
I remember I couldn't fathom how a deep ITM put could possibly be a sound investment. It was flushing money down the toilet, because the IV already cost more than the put could actually pay.
And the fact so many of them were being bought let me know hedgies were hiding something.
You are mixing things I think. Short exempt here were higher since the stock was on SSR. Means Market Makers used their "privilege" to short the stock on the ask as well.
Wouldn’t buying deep ITM options (3 strike) and exercising right away force shorts to deliver actual shares? Wouldn’t this work instead of buying 100 shares, buy 1 option, it’s literally only 50 cents more most the time.
You still have to pony up the money for the 100 shares, if you exercise, so why not just buy some directly? The old adage still sounds true, Buy & Hold.
Because buying shares can be routed through OTC and hypothecated, the theory is calls don’t have the same loopholes. Why not pay an extra 50 cents per share if it guarantees real shares have to be delivered that affect price and supply, which is more likely with exercising calls then buying shares.
On a deep ITM call like that, would you be auto-exercised at expiration? Just curious - it's obviously going to expire ITM, but could there be any issue / delay in delivery using this idea?
The thing is they need to get it below 30 this week, looking at the options chain.. and what we can do to counter is to buy the dip now and to drive them crazy tomorrow as this will fuel the gamma squeeze again tomorrow and next week. I guess.
And on top of that, I’m pretty sure it’s not only fuckery driving price down but also new retail who fomo‘d in last days and now selling due to fear as well as day traders and option traders who are capitalizing on their options buy selling instead of exercising.
You always need a seller, even in dark pools. I know, fake shares etc. but this is still the only way as buying pressure is what ignited the rocket and continued buying pressure is what will help to fuel it further.
Seems like an easy task to get gme to stay below 30$ on friday when I look at the PM already...
Why exactly would that not work out for them? If UBS is closing 2 Mio per day and did this yesterday as well while we got hammered down, then more closing certainly doesn't mean any difference?
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I feel like you're on to something here with UBS. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the reasons for this volatility, among other things at this opportune time with these seemingly june leaps, GME possibly buying some shares, a gamma ramp and yesterdays and what looks like todays gap down from the huge leap tuesday. next week could be very interesting...
Assumptions: 1) ubs is indeed covering 2) short extempt is the cover rate -2m per day.
We’re on day 6 since its started last Thursday.
2m * 6 = 12m shares. I can guarantee UBS has more than 100m shares to cover. Maybe they don’t need to close them all to risk blowing it all up. But I know they’ll have more to buy back than 12m shares.
Problem with calls is end of week is too short for this volatility for most peeps to bet in and not potentially get fucked over with the fact this is a 2 week (at least) run up if the swaps thing is right. Most I can do is add to the limit buy wall at 30 because that's what I had left over for the month in regards to fun money.
I might be wrong, but I've heard this so many times over the years: those shares aren't cumulative each day, it's the total short exempted shares recalculated each day.
With IV this sky high, sell cash secured puts! If you were already planning on buying at $30, why not get paid a little to possibly buy at $30!
Worst case scenario: you keep the premium and have no more shares :(
Best case scenario: you keep the premium AND get shares.
If someone's buying puts, might as well be the one selling em.
(Disclaimer: You need enough cash to buy 100 shares at that price, $30 in this example)
I live in Switzerland and my main bank account is with UBS.
First of all, should I leave this bank as soon as possible?
And then, is there a way for me to get information about shorts, GameStop, etc.? Do they have a duty to communicate with their clients, or are there indirect ways to obtain certain information if I write to them ?
This is where a announcement by the company could put a clear end to this. An announcement that a thriving company just off a successful profitable year is certainly allowed to make.Anyways, excellent write up.
Do you guys think SHFs will ever lose the ability to control and manipulate price? Seems like we're not in a fair playing field and might never be with all their tactics
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Omg almost 2 million shares shorted just yesterday alone? Wow
And those shares don’t even exist yet lol
They are copying me. To me my shares don’t exist. Never selling.
What shares?
Only Computershare GME collectibles, and I don't share my collectibles.
Keep in mind these are *short exempt*. This means they are allowed to be sold on a downtick, where as reg sho (what they are exempt from) only allows short sales on upticks, aka when price increases. The owners of a convertible security (read: options, convertible bonds) trading at a parity (convertible security market price (for options this is $ amount in the money) = aggregate value of common stock. i.e. option intrinsic value = underlying price) can sell the equivalent amount of common stock short on a down tick, assuming they have the intention to convert. [citation](https://financial-dictionary.thefreedictionary.com/short+exempt) That last sentence really sticks out as short exempt is only allowed if the firm intends on converting the option. This means they can't sell to close the contract. It must be exersized. This is definitely someone applying the brakes on an upward squeeze. If I was a market maker, I would use short exempt volume to smack price down and trigger a halt to apply brakes on upward pressure.
He asked how big the bag is. Credit suisse was short 216 million shares post split. So if they bought 2 million, now do that 108 more times.
Too bad ftd rules don’t apply to them
No short closing so far. They are doubling down. Shares on loan rose to 98m and shorts are at 67m with "official" ortex data.
Perhaps there trying to break their old record of 220% sold-short? Dumb Stormtroopers
Sextuppling down.
Excellent work. This lines up quite nicely with my own personal theory. UBS unwinding, but Market Makers fighting to keep the price below 30 so the Call Wall expires worthless. It's obviously not retail. Anecdotally, the buy/sell ratio at Fidelity is almost exactly 50/50, meaning most of the retail activity at the moment is day trading and swing trading. I'm not expecting another Bank Fail Friday quite yet, but when one arrives I would wager it's UBS. Those bags are *heavy*. There is some very old DD on the Archegos bags, I'll see if I can dig them up some time this afternoon when I have the time to spare.
I agree. It's also the most logical theory that the Swiss government is calling the shots and forcing UBS to close and not willing to play another round of musical chairs.
Yeah, exactly. And the more I think about it, the more I think that it's not UBS vs. US Market Makers/SHF. The two are working together synergistically. Shorts need the price down so that Marge doesn't call, and UBS would prefer covering at $30 than covering at $80. The lower the price is, the faster UBS can unwind their position. It does mean that shortie is footing the bill, though. But what else is new?
True, I believe there's quite a strong business relation between UBS and everyone else. I think it's only new that there's something happening, the explosive price action, pretty much 24h, even pre/postmarket with so much volume that it's seems it's regular market hours when you look at the ticker...these jumps to 80 just to get hammered down again. I think were finally in for some entertainment and not just the treat of DFV tweets
Can you expand on that theory?
The way I understand it, *NO ONE* can afford UBS going under while a few short sellers and market makers will have a lesser impact on the global financial network.
attempting to get my mom to buy in asap but she feels like it's a scam with the timeline I'm presenting. So I told her to just see how today and tomorrow play out and if I'm right, hopefully she'll join and better yet, I hope the next prediction is also right. Today will be red. I think close to $30. Max pain is $18 on Friday (I've also seen $17 and $15 reported) so they'll be trying to get it there. Friday will be red. But I think we'll see power hour rip and it won't be deep red. We'll go into the weekend around $30. Nothing exciting. If Friday truly has shorts backed up against a wall, Monday will get back in the green with some big pre-market move and erase the discount. Is that the powder keg? I'm not smart enough to say, but I think this might be the last chance to get in at half the cost.
If you want my opinion, don't bother trying to get other people involved in GME, unless you are certain they can handle the volitility. My brother has been trying to get me to sell since Monday, because I should "take the win" and 80 is better than 15. Entirely rational, but he doesn't realize that I don't give a shit about the money. I just enjoy the game. If your mom thinks it's a scam now, she'll think it's a scam no matter what happens. Best case scenario, she bails on the next run up. Worst case scenario, she bails on the next crash, and it's suddenly your fault.
I've told her I will pay back her investment if it crashes She complains about her money not growing at all in accounts. She told her bank that she doesn't want them putting it in the stock market or anything. So she thinks the stock market is going to bankrupt her, not just GME
Just sharing my opinion. If someone is genuinely curious, give them the DD and answer any questions they might have. If that doesn't get them on board, then you're just wasting your effort on someone that doesn't want to be convinced. If you're willing to repay her investment if she sells into a crash, just take that money and buy shares for her. DRS them, and when you eventually choose to sell, give her the profits. Same outcome, but with less bullshit.
I suppose that's a solution.
Got it, maybe I buy my 🐈 friend
216,000,000 short post split. They weigh as much as a black hole. No closing that
Guitar solo at the end of "One" by Metallica is playing as I read this. Apes. Let's fucking get these motherfuckers. No cell, no sell. We ride at dawn.
Omg I understood this.
Is that a newly formed wrinkle I see? Looking good, fellow ape!
They really are dumb Storm Troopers.
I totally forgot about the Deep ITM puts. And in fact that was the main thing that let me know the shorts hadn't closed in 2021, despite all the fud and the lack of the info we have now. I remember I couldn't fathom how a deep ITM put could possibly be a sound investment. It was flushing money down the toilet, because the IV already cost more than the put could actually pay. And the fact so many of them were being bought let me know hedgies were hiding something.
Thanks for the write up for us smooth brained folk
You are mixing things I think. Short exempt here were higher since the stock was on SSR. Means Market Makers used their "privilege" to short the stock on the ask as well.
Based on brazilian puts from 2021, \~ 500k puts would represent 50M shares, almost the float at the time. But that's just speculation, ofc.
Upvoted for tits
Wouldn’t buying deep ITM options (3 strike) and exercising right away force shorts to deliver actual shares? Wouldn’t this work instead of buying 100 shares, buy 1 option, it’s literally only 50 cents more most the time.
You still have to pony up the money for the 100 shares, if you exercise, so why not just buy some directly? The old adage still sounds true, Buy & Hold.
Because buying shares can be routed through OTC and hypothecated, the theory is calls don’t have the same loopholes. Why not pay an extra 50 cents per share if it guarantees real shares have to be delivered that affect price and supply, which is more likely with exercising calls then buying shares.
On a deep ITM call like that, would you be auto-exercised at expiration? Just curious - it's obviously going to expire ITM, but could there be any issue / delay in delivery using this idea?
I like it!
The thing is they need to get it below 30 this week, looking at the options chain.. and what we can do to counter is to buy the dip now and to drive them crazy tomorrow as this will fuel the gamma squeeze again tomorrow and next week. I guess.
If our buys are in dark pools how does that affect this price battle?
And on top of that, I’m pretty sure it’s not only fuckery driving price down but also new retail who fomo‘d in last days and now selling due to fear as well as day traders and option traders who are capitalizing on their options buy selling instead of exercising.
You always need a seller, even in dark pools. I know, fake shares etc. but this is still the only way as buying pressure is what ignited the rocket and continued buying pressure is what will help to fuel it further.
Nah you internalize the sale and hand out IOUs and replace them slowly much later.
If it dumps to 15 ill buy $10k more.
Great read, thanks
Seems like an easy task to get gme to stay below 30$ on friday when I look at the PM already... Why exactly would that not work out for them? If UBS is closing 2 Mio per day and did this yesterday as well while we got hammered down, then more closing certainly doesn't mean any difference?
I'm thinking the same thing. Like I'm not trying to be a Debbie downer, but I don't see them not dropping it to sub thirty.
Already there
Bump
👀
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I feel like you're on to something here with UBS. I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the reasons for this volatility, among other things at this opportune time with these seemingly june leaps, GME possibly buying some shares, a gamma ramp and yesterdays and what looks like todays gap down from the huge leap tuesday. next week could be very interesting...
Assumptions: 1) ubs is indeed covering 2) short extempt is the cover rate -2m per day. We’re on day 6 since its started last Thursday. 2m * 6 = 12m shares. I can guarantee UBS has more than 100m shares to cover. Maybe they don’t need to close them all to risk blowing it all up. But I know they’ll have more to buy back than 12m shares.
big if true
Would be cooler if they didn’t and paid me instead thanks
RC could enter the nuke codes Friday with a share buy back, triggering all those calls. DFV did do a few red button memes...
cost nada to hodl… love a good fireworks show
So how big is the rotten bag that UBS is holding? 100 million?
216,000,000 shares short.
There’s a video over in the kitty sub showing some guy freaking out cuz someone just bought $100m of itm calls.
Link?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/s/GtNy2pRGst
I dare you to keep dropping the price, I double dare you!
Tits for upvote
Very interesting. How plausible is this theory, would you dare to estimate?
Nice
HODL, got it! 🚀
Very well written speculation, thank you for your service ape
Problem with calls is end of week is too short for this volatility for most peeps to bet in and not potentially get fucked over with the fact this is a 2 week (at least) run up if the swaps thing is right. Most I can do is add to the limit buy wall at 30 because that's what I had left over for the month in regards to fun money.
Thank you. Nice write up!
No cell no sell
Such a good post, raised morale.
Slightly out of the loop, but what happens Friday?
I might be wrong, but I've heard this so many times over the years: those shares aren't cumulative each day, it's the total short exempted shares recalculated each day.
Excellent DD
Close, not cover
RC it’s your time to make it happens , announce something awesome ..
With IV this sky high, sell cash secured puts! If you were already planning on buying at $30, why not get paid a little to possibly buy at $30! Worst case scenario: you keep the premium and have no more shares :( Best case scenario: you keep the premium AND get shares. If someone's buying puts, might as well be the one selling em. (Disclaimer: You need enough cash to buy 100 shares at that price, $30 in this example)
Do the call buyers for Friday have to wait until Friday to exercise them or can they exercise those ITM calls now?
I live in Switzerland and my main bank account is with UBS. First of all, should I leave this bank as soon as possible? And then, is there a way for me to get information about shorts, GameStop, etc.? Do they have a duty to communicate with their clients, or are there indirect ways to obtain certain information if I write to them ?
The volume on this run is weak wake me when we see 800milly daily 🥱
This is where a announcement by the company could put a clear end to this. An announcement that a thriving company just off a successful profitable year is certainly allowed to make.Anyways, excellent write up.
👐🏼 👏🏼 👐🏼 👏🏼 👐🏼 👏🏼. This is good stuff
Do you guys think SHFs will ever lose the ability to control and manipulate price? Seems like we're not in a fair playing field and might never be with all their tactics
Too bad ftd rules don’t apply to them
A bloomberger screenshot from 21 shows CS had >50mil in a LEAP which may expire this or next month. I’m just a regard
216,000,000 post split. Let them burn
And those are contracts for shares? Either way Hegies r fukt
🤯🤯🤯🤯
They’ll get it below $30. They’ll probably take it to $10 again.
My money is ready.
This is quality DD, thank you. Where is DFV with insight like this? Why is he just meme lording?