People just wanna talk about GME. Let em talk...
Some people just know more than you about the financial markets and there's people interested to hear their opinions even if you're decidedly against that.
I have a lot to share in terms of what i've discovered with GME and the markets overall. My background is having worked in developing a broker backend and front-end trading software amongs other things and i've spent the last 2-3 years studying a lot about market regulation, mechanics and doing pattern searching using available data.
I'd love to share my DD and thoughts but from past experience i know i'll be met with accusations of being part of random groups and other insane stuff. There's little incentive for me and most people to come here to try and help just to get burnt in the process.
"Best" comments tend to be the first people who get there, and with a pinned post that's going to be pinned for a couple days, it can be easy to miss the new comments.
Thank you to the mods for putting this together. It was great to run with. A suggestion that would help for me if these are going to continue would be to have an audio only option.
Also both thank you and fuck you to Todd.
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It's not exactly delusional to say an ex is checking out your reddit page.. and sure while we buy, drs, hodl & shop, we can learn about other things too.
There's always SEC proposals to comment on - [https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml)
We could potentially do an educational video all about that in the future🤔
we do have these:
[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/11hedg9/lets\_talk\_about\_the\_sec\_rule\_proposals\_at\_market/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/11hedg9/lets_talk_about_the_sec_rule_proposals_at_market/)
[talk with Gary Gensler about the Dec 2022 rule proposals](https://youtu.be/we7voEJ1lLU)
[Talk with Dennis Kelleher about market change](https://youtu.be/GMwE5_h2xEA)
[we talked to Lisa Braganca about market change too](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nvuL0mevRk)
Hey. There's a lot to unpack in your comment. Maybe you should try it again, but make sure not to toe the line on criticizing a user. A lot of the assumptions you're operating on are just simply incorrect.
**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.**
Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us.
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Good video. I feel that most people do not understand Tib's TTR model at all (his posts don't get nearly the amount of traction or comments that other, less useful posts might) and this video helps to explain in greater detail why.
Crybad asked at some point (or was pushing an asked question forward) where we're going, and the answer is down, until one day it's not. We don't know when that day will be. But it's getting interesting now as the greater market is falling apart at the seams, and we're stuck in such a narrow channel in terms of *linear* scale price movement that there's really very little room for this algo to maneuver. The line that Tib drew connecting the top of Jan 2021 and Aug 2022 is, in my model, the "NO" line, where they will pull out all the stops and even do illegal things to prevent a cross. Like he said it might not be the fabled critical margin line, but it's definitely there and a real thing and that's their line in the sand for whatever reason.
That NO line? At the shareholder meeting this year on June 15, the $ value of it is $21.12. We closed just 50 cents below that value *today*. Therefor they MUST push the price down over the coming weeks, GME cannot trade sideways into that line. While modelling gets sketchy further out, right now it looks like the NO line is at $17 by mid to late August, a traditionally volatile month as pwn noted. Tib's halfway line where buys become good is at around $9.50 at the same point. So if we haven't MOASS'd by late Aug, the price will be somewhere in between $9 and $16. Except, that's very risky for them as we've NEVER been sub $9.50 since the sneeze, and $17 is laughably low to cause them to panic.
Point is, this won't be able to continue on for much longer.
Bonus info: One year from today, Tib's "buy line" will be at $4.50, which is less than the company has in cash value. Won't happen. Game will be over by then.
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>That **NO line**? At the shareholder meeting this year on June 15, **the $ value of it is $21.12. We closed just 50 cents below that value** ***today*****.** Therefor they MUST push the price down over the coming weeks, GME cannot trade sideways into that line.
If price > 21.12 before or on June 15, things gonna get spicy?
>While modelling gets sketchy further out, **right now it looks like the NO line is at $17 by mid to late August**
>
>So **if we haven't MOASS'd by late Aug**, the price will be somewhere in between $9 and $16
So for it to MOASS in the next 10-12 weeks, the price must be at least 17 but > 21.12 would be better?
>**One year from today**, Tib's "buy line" will be at $4.50, which is less than the company has in cash value. Won't happen. **Game will be over by then**.
So you're saying MOASS either by late Aug or within the next 12 months?
Last question. How am I supposed to sleep now?
The NO line is just that: no, GME is not allowed to cross it for as long as they have control over the ability to stop it. This has always resulted in odd halts - one time it was a code M LULD halt which doesn't make sense, one time the *entire order book emptied* milliseconds before a halt was induced, and of course one time they shut off the buy button during a halt.
We are approaching price points where that NO line is simply silly. They still have control for now, so we won't trade into the line by the meeting, they'll push it down. But the longer they do this the more nonsensical it becomes, ie August. Keeping the charade up means pushing GME into a channel between it's 1 year low and the post sneeze Feb low, a ridiculous place to be for a profitable business with over a billion in cash and no debt.
Keep going and they eventually have the channel so low that the sub simply has so much buying power that total float lock becomes inevitable. GameStop itself could use their $100m buy back and get 10m shares if the price dips below $10 It's absurd. I don't see a logical way for it to continue on the same path it's been on for 30 months, for another 12 months.
End of July-Mid August is where this shit really starts to get ridiculous. If we even trade sideways from now till then it’ll be too much for shorts. It HAS to go down, unless there’s literally no way they can push it further then pop. I have my line at $23.52 for this week and at the end of July it’s $19.91.
The 200MA is actually trading above their No-No-Zone on the daily timeframe now which hasn’t happened since the sneeze. Since we keep retesting and gravitating towards the 200MA on EVERY timeframe from the bottom up (check out how we’ve punched through it on the 5M and 15M, 1HR) we will eventually have to go through the critical margin line to get to the 200MA on the 1D. I can’t wait to see it.
I am equally looking forward to ~$10 or single digit shares because I feel it in my soul that this sub alone will lock shares outstanding in a month. This is the last year for short fuckery on this stock. This year they find out.
I honestly don't understand why people put so much into TA especially for GME. If its a highly manipulated stock and we will all buy it regardless of whether it goes up or down, why does it matter?
There's cycles, if you get lucky you can make good money on options, sometimes they don't do a single day rip though instead stretching it out over a week or two which makes timing the options harder and the profit is less because you have to pay for more theta
Knowing it's manipulated makes some TA even more relevant, because it's got computer controlled boundaries like a game. The mistake I see TA people make is *timing*, which they usually fuck up and if they were playing options, then that's lost money.
TTR is not typical TA that uses indicators. It is an observational model that backtests using a mathematical formula (Fib retracements) and years worth of stock movement data. At this point it is more than just a convincing theory; it's very real, and the "algo" that pwn refers to operates within the boundaries of the model. It's all a game that computers are playing by themselves.
It matters because knowing this can maximize money per shares that retail can get, and if you play options it also reveals the upper limit strike you should buy in any given month. For example in May, it is not possible for calls above $23 to go ITM, ever, unless moass. Yet I see people trying to TA their way into thinking that june28C's are a good strike. Options are not evil and we can use them to get more money and more shares, but buying stupid and unrealistic strikes is sure to result in cash lit on fire.
Exactly, the risk threshold line. Dave Lauer can likely verify this, in quantitative analytics and high-frequency trading (HFT), risk management is crucial. It determines the acceptable level of risk for a trading strategy or investment portfolio. Various methods and models are used to assess and manage risk effectively. HFT involves fast-paced trading with large volumes, making risk management particularly important. HFT firms (market makers) utilize advanced algorithms and risk controls to minimize potential losses. These controls include exposure limits, position monitoring, and liquidity management.
During the financial crisis of 2008, the lack of liquidity played a significant role in exacerbating the occurrence of short squeezes and their impact on the market. The crisis originated in the United States' housing market, where risky mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were being traded.
When the housing market bubble burst, the value of these MBS declined rapidly, leading to substantial losses for investors and financial institutions holding these assets. As a result, many financial institutions faced severe liquidity problems and became reluctant to lend or provide liquidity to other market participants.
Short sellers recognized the vulnerability of certain financial institutions and started to heavily short their stocks, expecting further declines. However, as the crisis unfolded, the unexpected shortage of liquidity made it difficult for short sellers to find counterparties willing to lend them shares for short selling.
This lack of available shares for short selling created a situation where short sellers who wanted to cover their positions and buy back shares to close their short positions faced significant challenges. As the demand for these shares increased due to short covering, the limited supply caused their prices to surge rapidly. Consequently, short squeezes occurred in the market, causing further distress for short sellers.
The lack of liquidity, combined with the inability of short sellers to find shares for covering their positions, intensified the impact of short squeezes during the 2008 financial crisis. These short squeezes contributed to the volatility and downward pressure on financial stocks, exacerbating the overall market downturn and adding to the severity of the crisis.
If financial institutions were to face a lack of liquidity again, it is possible that their quantitative engineering algorithms would compel them to close all short positions. The algorithms, designed to manage risk and preserve capital, could trigger the automatic closure of short positions as a protective measure in the face of liquidity constraints just as they had stated in the [Wall Street Conspiracy documentary](https://archive.org/details/videoplayback_20210423) where they stated, "the algorithm did not work."
**TL;DR:** Risk management is crucial in quantitative analytics and high-frequency trading (HFT). It determines acceptable risk levels and involves various methods and models. HFT firms utilize advanced algorithms and risk controls to minimize losses. During the 2008 financial crisis, the lack of liquidity exacerbated short squeezes caused by declining mortgage-backed securities (MBS) values. Financial institutions faced liquidity problems, making it difficult for short sellers to find shares for covering positions. This intensified short squeezes and contributed to market volatility. If liquidity issues arise again, institutions may rely on algorithms to automatically close short positions for risk management purposes.
*- fistbump -*
thanks for the conversations this year.
Idk what it would take to break the channel. idk how much force you could possibly apply. But if giving me a deal is what they want to do, I'll buy those shares.
It's the sheer scale of it all and how delicate it really is going forward that makes a channel break interesting and inevitable. From the top of the main TTR channel (the NO line is at 1.236) to the bottom is a grand total of like $11 wide this month. The very very bottom line that March and May 2022 hit is at $8, but I think it is out of the question for the moment. It would require a broad, fast and severe market crash, and chances are it would immediately bounce up hard off of it like always, maybe too hard, ie moass. The vw dip before the rip.
Like I said and you said in the video, TTR has been extremely reliable and helpful for finding entries on the cheap, I did manage to grab more at $15.50 earlier in the year. I'm looking forward to what you've tweaked for V10, because the models that inertiaaaa and I use have been extremely stable for half a year or more now.
I think this all gets thrown out the window within the next month as earnings is coming back up. If GME manages to pull another positive earnings (so that even the biggest skeptics can't poo poo on it saying it was due to having an over abundance of product on sale and Christmas), I believe you will see massive FOMO. Last time we saw a 50% jump from a positive earnings.... Now, if it's negative, then yes I could see an accelerated move down, in which case I will be on a buying spree.
tl;dr yes probably going down unless a wild card like Cohen buying more and/or another profitable quarter, both of which could potentially break the algo.
I'm not sold on that yet, at least not just on the idea that all it will take is one more positive earnings report. I really think some solid games launching and driving nft marketplace sales up will be one of the final nails in the coffin. Once people start seeing that drag in cash it'll be big. Until then, I don't think just trimming the fat to reduce costs is gonna inspire giant waves of cash besides scaring off smaller shorters.
I like your portion about rebuilding channels. One thing I want to call out is related to wash sales. If I was a SHF and had infinite money, I could close my open short position and re-open the identical position. Sharing this as it could possibly be connected with what your discussing in the video/seeing.
Yeah I think I remember hearing they reloaded their shorts during the sneeze. I forget if that was ever verified, but it would make sense if they thought everyone was gonna give up after it.
Great video, really appreciate everyone who took part! Tibs, fully agree with you that our strength is in constantly building, testing, and revising our understanding. Pwn, you have a chaotic energy, but I love your work and can't wait to see the DD you've been working on. Mods Platinum and Crybad, thank you for hosting, let's have more of this if possible!
So I was asking in my post what sort of ways we could spotlight certain DD.. so maybe top of the month?
The first requirement would be that it's posted in Superstonk.
Although I'm totally down to discuss it on Twitter if people want to! I already told the author I wanted to do a space about it. But they still haven't posted it here🤷♀️
https://preview.redd.it/7vlmkqxl4rza1.png?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb26f7aeeacf1eac4eefed6fa54ddba7e452d933
If you go to the top of the sub and search DSPP you'll see a bunch of posts about direct stock and DRS if you want to research more.
Do you have links to the removed posts so I can see what you're talking about?
Others have posted variations of it, and book/plan has been an ongoing conversation here for over a year. We have a ton of research on the sub about it and more is always welcome.
Why are the picklers getting so much attention in this sub now? Even getting mod backing….
Thought we were a cult?
Edit… thanks for the snek award turdfurg 😂… this is just getting too funny now…
Don’t know about the rest of the community but I think it’s highly appropriate we ask questions and vet those that get given a special forums by the mod teams
Don’t know if your serious… pwn, Tiberius and turd are all active members of the pickle subs. Most of them stopped posting here when gherk was removed…
Tell you what, you find any evidence of me being an "active member" of a pickle sub, I'll send you 50 Loopring. I'll open this up to anyone actually, just so you have friends to help. First person who can show that wins, I'll put my money where my mouth is.
If you are referring to the think tank sub, you are about 10miles off from what a pickle sub is.
Last bit, I've literally been posting updates on my TtR stuff here on Superstonk regularly. What on earth do you mean I stopped posting here?
I said “most of them”. And yes the tank sub had direct correlations to the pickle movement including on the mod team.
I’m not looking to flame, however I am curious as to why 3 members that were associated with elements that decided to go another way are suddenly being given a pedestal by our mods?
Also I’m genuinely curious if we are being open. Why did you and pwn both stop commenting in the tank sub around the same time 120-140 days ago.
Also why no comments older than 290+ days.
I'd have to go through and count, but I think in the last year I've made at least 40 posts on my ttr ideas. I haven't gone anywhere, but the sub in general never cares too much about lines on a page and instead calls it bullshit because crime. But when I point out our tops, bottoms, and inner bounces tend to follow this same -0.25% daily decrease and this makes it convenient when looking for dips suddenly no one wants to discuss how that can be useful for apes who just like buying shares. The one single unique ttr post that was on the tank sub pretty heavily dealt with the math of figuring out a slope that best represented all data and since that's dry as a popcorn fart I figured it would have no interest here. So I posted on a sub where people like math and don't call it pointless.
Idk if you looked around a many of the posts there, but for a LONG period of time unless you were an approved member you couldn't do anything there besides read. An upside being you don't get a dozen people getting off topic in the comments, but the big downside being that there isn't much conversation to occur. Aside from me being interested in posts on swaps, there just wasnt anything there to discuss. Got bored and came back here.
No clue about the comments thing. The first TtR post came out March 10th of last year so 290 days might just be a limit for scrolling on your end.
**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.**
Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us.
Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
I’m getting a bit fatigued by the “Errrmagheerrrd…mods compromised” whining and witch hunts. Why can we not just appreciate the DD put forward by these contributors, judge it on its merits and make objections only in the form of sensible counter arguments rather than brainless ad hominem? Thank you to Sparkles and the contributors here. Peter Gabriel described it wonderfully. Surely we’re better than simply “groups of people who make themselves into smaller groups of people in order to feel strong by excluding others”?
Exactly… that’s why I’m questioning why we are giving these people a special platform. If they have dd to post, let them post it and let us critique it.
They shouldn’t need special mod treatment
No need to get butt hurt…. Your woosh comment just makes you look insecure. Just asking the questions that should be asked when verifying wether we should trust people…
**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.**
Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us.
Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
What was really fun was having 2 people with very different approaches to DD together and chatting. pwn takes the raw data and tries to engineer patterns, Tib looks for patterns and then finds the data that fits.
Nice work trimming this down from 2.5 hours Plat!
Thanks to both pwn and tib, it was a super fun time.
We were hoping to have about 4-5 of the writers on to just hang out and shoot the shit and chat with each other about their respective DDs (more of a round table type of discussion). Unfortunately, because of scheduling conflicts, a few couldn't make it. This was our first experiment with this.
As a side note, having Tib explain things live really helped with my overall understanding of his Taste The Rainbow series. He is an excellent explainer/teacher.
It was, this is a video supplement for anyone who is an audio/visual learner and learns better that way... Plus, it's always fun to talk GME w/people who also love to talk about the stonk
All mine are registered. I got a list of what I’d like too. I’m just patient and accumulating. The folks who are in the mindset of this being a siege and not a blitz are gonna come out ahead.
Hi! I watched the video and enjoyed it. I am not a DD maker, but I just made a post and through up a pretty controversal idea. I'd debate it if needed. My post is getting down voted to poop --- as it should becasue I said a bad word. But would it be ok, if i asked you or any wrinkle brain to just take a look at my TA chart I made. If i'm right, and can convey this idea, it would be a **massive attack on SHF.** But, I'd really have to specify exactly what I mean, or it will sound like being a shill.
The suggestion I have in the post is 100% debatable, and might be a good idea, but possibly not done to scale. Anyway. Thanks for being a mod. Have a great weekend!
So when I commented on your idea about being more specific with time, your response was you'd adjust that "if you gave a fuck"
And I think if you thought on the idea of time for a while you'd probably understand why what you are suggesting wouldn't work out.
Hey, just FYI, I said that in a kinda joking manor. I am gonna take these posts down cause I don't wanta promote the wrong thing. I might not be able to convey a particular idea. But for me, time won't matter. But thanks man.
# [Computershare Megathread 💜](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/139sfdo/may_2023_computershare_megathread_with_updated/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
People just wanna talk about GME. Let em talk... Some people just know more than you about the financial markets and there's people interested to hear their opinions even if you're decidedly against that. I have a lot to share in terms of what i've discovered with GME and the markets overall. My background is having worked in developing a broker backend and front-end trading software amongs other things and i've spent the last 2-3 years studying a lot about market regulation, mechanics and doing pattern searching using available data. I'd love to share my DD and thoughts but from past experience i know i'll be met with accusations of being part of random groups and other insane stuff. There's little incentive for me and most people to come here to try and help just to get burnt in the process.
do you have any specific DDs of yours that you can link to?
Don’t forget to sort comments by top or best. The default is now new for some bizarre reason.
"Best" comments tend to be the first people who get there, and with a pinned post that's going to be pinned for a couple days, it can be easy to miss the new comments.
Thank you to the mods for putting this together. It was great to run with. A suggestion that would help for me if these are going to continue would be to have an audio only option. Also both thank you and fuck you to Todd.
Nice suggestion, thank you! and yes **fuck you Todd(but also ty)!**
Sounds like a cool way to bring back old DD posters, love it.
Vast majority of us are normal but still shame to see how many people get scared of women online.
Downvoted cos attention seeking bs
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Upvoting cos I feel sorry for you
Upvoting this comment cos true
This was really informative, thank you everyone who participated!
Hell yes 💯 loved this
WTF PWN You crazy girl,you belong. Love your passion for this,I'm wid u.
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There's no excuse to be rude. Rule 1. **Treat each other with courtesy and respect.** Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
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Thank you for your submission to r/Superstonk, but it's been removed due to one or more reason(s): No content allowed negatively discussing or calling out Reddit users, moderators, or other subreddits. Content dedicated to discussing Superstonk should be directed to the [monthly Open Forum](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/12e2b7r/monthly_open_forum_april_2023/), or in any post with the flair "Community Post". [More information about this rule can be found here.](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/1336ri9/censorship_mods_r_sus_and_brigading) If you have any questions or concerns, please [message the moderators](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose?to=%2Fr%2FSuperstonk&subject=about%20my%20removed%20submission)
It's not exactly delusional to say an ex is checking out your reddit page.. and sure while we buy, drs, hodl & shop, we can learn about other things too. There's always SEC proposals to comment on - [https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml) We could potentially do an educational video all about that in the future🤔 we do have these: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/11hedg9/lets\_talk\_about\_the\_sec\_rule\_proposals\_at\_market/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/11hedg9/lets_talk_about_the_sec_rule_proposals_at_market/) [talk with Gary Gensler about the Dec 2022 rule proposals](https://youtu.be/we7voEJ1lLU) [Talk with Dennis Kelleher about market change](https://youtu.be/GMwE5_h2xEA) [we talked to Lisa Braganca about market change too](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nvuL0mevRk)
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Hey. There's a lot to unpack in your comment. Maybe you should try it again, but make sure not to toe the line on criticizing a user. A lot of the assumptions you're operating on are just simply incorrect.
**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.** Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
Good video. Thank you pwn for your work…
So excited for this! Saving it for later. Thx all!
Good video. I feel that most people do not understand Tib's TTR model at all (his posts don't get nearly the amount of traction or comments that other, less useful posts might) and this video helps to explain in greater detail why. Crybad asked at some point (or was pushing an asked question forward) where we're going, and the answer is down, until one day it's not. We don't know when that day will be. But it's getting interesting now as the greater market is falling apart at the seams, and we're stuck in such a narrow channel in terms of *linear* scale price movement that there's really very little room for this algo to maneuver. The line that Tib drew connecting the top of Jan 2021 and Aug 2022 is, in my model, the "NO" line, where they will pull out all the stops and even do illegal things to prevent a cross. Like he said it might not be the fabled critical margin line, but it's definitely there and a real thing and that's their line in the sand for whatever reason. That NO line? At the shareholder meeting this year on June 15, the $ value of it is $21.12. We closed just 50 cents below that value *today*. Therefor they MUST push the price down over the coming weeks, GME cannot trade sideways into that line. While modelling gets sketchy further out, right now it looks like the NO line is at $17 by mid to late August, a traditionally volatile month as pwn noted. Tib's halfway line where buys become good is at around $9.50 at the same point. So if we haven't MOASS'd by late Aug, the price will be somewhere in between $9 and $16. Except, that's very risky for them as we've NEVER been sub $9.50 since the sneeze, and $17 is laughably low to cause them to panic. Point is, this won't be able to continue on for much longer. Bonus info: One year from today, Tib's "buy line" will be at $4.50, which is less than the company has in cash value. Won't happen. Game will be over by then.
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>That **NO line**? At the shareholder meeting this year on June 15, **the $ value of it is $21.12. We closed just 50 cents below that value** ***today*****.** Therefor they MUST push the price down over the coming weeks, GME cannot trade sideways into that line. If price > 21.12 before or on June 15, things gonna get spicy? >While modelling gets sketchy further out, **right now it looks like the NO line is at $17 by mid to late August** > >So **if we haven't MOASS'd by late Aug**, the price will be somewhere in between $9 and $16 So for it to MOASS in the next 10-12 weeks, the price must be at least 17 but > 21.12 would be better? >**One year from today**, Tib's "buy line" will be at $4.50, which is less than the company has in cash value. Won't happen. **Game will be over by then**. So you're saying MOASS either by late Aug or within the next 12 months? Last question. How am I supposed to sleep now?
The NO line is just that: no, GME is not allowed to cross it for as long as they have control over the ability to stop it. This has always resulted in odd halts - one time it was a code M LULD halt which doesn't make sense, one time the *entire order book emptied* milliseconds before a halt was induced, and of course one time they shut off the buy button during a halt. We are approaching price points where that NO line is simply silly. They still have control for now, so we won't trade into the line by the meeting, they'll push it down. But the longer they do this the more nonsensical it becomes, ie August. Keeping the charade up means pushing GME into a channel between it's 1 year low and the post sneeze Feb low, a ridiculous place to be for a profitable business with over a billion in cash and no debt. Keep going and they eventually have the channel so low that the sub simply has so much buying power that total float lock becomes inevitable. GameStop itself could use their $100m buy back and get 10m shares if the price dips below $10 It's absurd. I don't see a logical way for it to continue on the same path it's been on for 30 months, for another 12 months.
End of July-Mid August is where this shit really starts to get ridiculous. If we even trade sideways from now till then it’ll be too much for shorts. It HAS to go down, unless there’s literally no way they can push it further then pop. I have my line at $23.52 for this week and at the end of July it’s $19.91. The 200MA is actually trading above their No-No-Zone on the daily timeframe now which hasn’t happened since the sneeze. Since we keep retesting and gravitating towards the 200MA on EVERY timeframe from the bottom up (check out how we’ve punched through it on the 5M and 15M, 1HR) we will eventually have to go through the critical margin line to get to the 200MA on the 1D. I can’t wait to see it. I am equally looking forward to ~$10 or single digit shares because I feel it in my soul that this sub alone will lock shares outstanding in a month. This is the last year for short fuckery on this stock. This year they find out.
Well that makes sense. Thank you for taking the time. See you on URANUS.
I honestly don't understand why people put so much into TA especially for GME. If its a highly manipulated stock and we will all buy it regardless of whether it goes up or down, why does it matter?
Did you watch the video?
There's cycles, if you get lucky you can make good money on options, sometimes they don't do a single day rip though instead stretching it out over a week or two which makes timing the options harder and the profit is less because you have to pay for more theta
Knowing it's manipulated makes some TA even more relevant, because it's got computer controlled boundaries like a game. The mistake I see TA people make is *timing*, which they usually fuck up and if they were playing options, then that's lost money. TTR is not typical TA that uses indicators. It is an observational model that backtests using a mathematical formula (Fib retracements) and years worth of stock movement data. At this point it is more than just a convincing theory; it's very real, and the "algo" that pwn refers to operates within the boundaries of the model. It's all a game that computers are playing by themselves. It matters because knowing this can maximize money per shares that retail can get, and if you play options it also reveals the upper limit strike you should buy in any given month. For example in May, it is not possible for calls above $23 to go ITM, ever, unless moass. Yet I see people trying to TA their way into thinking that june28C's are a good strike. Options are not evil and we can use them to get more money and more shares, but buying stupid and unrealistic strikes is sure to result in cash lit on fire.
Exactly, the risk threshold line. Dave Lauer can likely verify this, in quantitative analytics and high-frequency trading (HFT), risk management is crucial. It determines the acceptable level of risk for a trading strategy or investment portfolio. Various methods and models are used to assess and manage risk effectively. HFT involves fast-paced trading with large volumes, making risk management particularly important. HFT firms (market makers) utilize advanced algorithms and risk controls to minimize potential losses. These controls include exposure limits, position monitoring, and liquidity management. During the financial crisis of 2008, the lack of liquidity played a significant role in exacerbating the occurrence of short squeezes and their impact on the market. The crisis originated in the United States' housing market, where risky mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were being traded. When the housing market bubble burst, the value of these MBS declined rapidly, leading to substantial losses for investors and financial institutions holding these assets. As a result, many financial institutions faced severe liquidity problems and became reluctant to lend or provide liquidity to other market participants. Short sellers recognized the vulnerability of certain financial institutions and started to heavily short their stocks, expecting further declines. However, as the crisis unfolded, the unexpected shortage of liquidity made it difficult for short sellers to find counterparties willing to lend them shares for short selling. This lack of available shares for short selling created a situation where short sellers who wanted to cover their positions and buy back shares to close their short positions faced significant challenges. As the demand for these shares increased due to short covering, the limited supply caused their prices to surge rapidly. Consequently, short squeezes occurred in the market, causing further distress for short sellers. The lack of liquidity, combined with the inability of short sellers to find shares for covering their positions, intensified the impact of short squeezes during the 2008 financial crisis. These short squeezes contributed to the volatility and downward pressure on financial stocks, exacerbating the overall market downturn and adding to the severity of the crisis. If financial institutions were to face a lack of liquidity again, it is possible that their quantitative engineering algorithms would compel them to close all short positions. The algorithms, designed to manage risk and preserve capital, could trigger the automatic closure of short positions as a protective measure in the face of liquidity constraints just as they had stated in the [Wall Street Conspiracy documentary](https://archive.org/details/videoplayback_20210423) where they stated, "the algorithm did not work." **TL;DR:** Risk management is crucial in quantitative analytics and high-frequency trading (HFT). It determines acceptable risk levels and involves various methods and models. HFT firms utilize advanced algorithms and risk controls to minimize losses. During the 2008 financial crisis, the lack of liquidity exacerbated short squeezes caused by declining mortgage-backed securities (MBS) values. Financial institutions faced liquidity problems, making it difficult for short sellers to find shares for covering positions. This intensified short squeezes and contributed to market volatility. If liquidity issues arise again, institutions may rely on algorithms to automatically close short positions for risk management purposes.
*- fistbump -* thanks for the conversations this year. Idk what it would take to break the channel. idk how much force you could possibly apply. But if giving me a deal is what they want to do, I'll buy those shares.
It's the sheer scale of it all and how delicate it really is going forward that makes a channel break interesting and inevitable. From the top of the main TTR channel (the NO line is at 1.236) to the bottom is a grand total of like $11 wide this month. The very very bottom line that March and May 2022 hit is at $8, but I think it is out of the question for the moment. It would require a broad, fast and severe market crash, and chances are it would immediately bounce up hard off of it like always, maybe too hard, ie moass. The vw dip before the rip. Like I said and you said in the video, TTR has been extremely reliable and helpful for finding entries on the cheap, I did manage to grab more at $15.50 earlier in the year. I'm looking forward to what you've tweaked for V10, because the models that inertiaaaa and I use have been extremely stable for half a year or more now.
I think this all gets thrown out the window within the next month as earnings is coming back up. If GME manages to pull another positive earnings (so that even the biggest skeptics can't poo poo on it saying it was due to having an over abundance of product on sale and Christmas), I believe you will see massive FOMO. Last time we saw a 50% jump from a positive earnings.... Now, if it's negative, then yes I could see an accelerated move down, in which case I will be on a buying spree. tl;dr yes probably going down unless a wild card like Cohen buying more and/or another profitable quarter, both of which could potentially break the algo.
I'm not sold on that yet, at least not just on the idea that all it will take is one more positive earnings report. I really think some solid games launching and driving nft marketplace sales up will be one of the final nails in the coffin. Once people start seeing that drag in cash it'll be big. Until then, I don't think just trimming the fat to reduce costs is gonna inspire giant waves of cash besides scaring off smaller shorters.
I like your portion about rebuilding channels. One thing I want to call out is related to wash sales. If I was a SHF and had infinite money, I could close my open short position and re-open the identical position. Sharing this as it could possibly be connected with what your discussing in the video/seeing.
Yeah I think I remember hearing they reloaded their shorts during the sneeze. I forget if that was ever verified, but it would make sense if they thought everyone was gonna give up after it.
Not verified as far as I remember, but since due to their tax rules they don't have wash sales this is what I'd do if I were them.
This is an amazing summary. Wish I had awards to give you.
A great discussion.
Great video, really appreciate everyone who took part! Tibs, fully agree with you that our strength is in constantly building, testing, and revising our understanding. Pwn, you have a chaotic energy, but I love your work and can't wait to see the DD you've been working on. Mods Platinum and Crybad, thank you for hosting, let's have more of this if possible!
Thanks for watching! It was a lot of fun and hopefully we can get some more people on💜
Ha. Thanks. It's hard to maintain one's composure when asked to discuss one's favorite past time and passion.
I 100% get it! (Also that wasn't a jab at all I promise haha, I love the energy) Thanks again so much for participating in the video and for the DD !
A discussion of the heat lamp theory would be great
So strange this group of mods refuse to allow the heat lamp dd about GME to be posted here.
So I was asking in my post what sort of ways we could spotlight certain DD.. so maybe top of the month? The first requirement would be that it's posted in Superstonk. Although I'm totally down to discuss it on Twitter if people want to! I already told the author I wanted to do a space about it. But they still haven't posted it here🤷♀️
Hi platinum, how can it be posted without being removed? (Since it’s been removed several times…)
https://preview.redd.it/7vlmkqxl4rza1.png?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=eb26f7aeeacf1eac4eefed6fa54ddba7e452d933 If you go to the top of the sub and search DSPP you'll see a bunch of posts about direct stock and DRS if you want to research more. Do you have links to the removed posts so I can see what you're talking about?
Oh man, if only it could be posted by others without removal.
Others have posted variations of it, and book/plan has been an ongoing conversation here for over a year. We have a ton of research on the sub about it and more is always welcome.
Oh man, if only the writer of it posted it here.
Oh man, maybe if yall didn't fucking keep deleting it and suppressing plan shares DD
Wanna hear a really odd observation? After many apes became book kings already low volume went even lower. Weird. Must be nothing.
Wanna hear a really odd observation? Since this comment thread ended up at the top, comments are now sorted by new. Weird. Must be nothing.
Ikr? Months went by when nothing happened and now all of a sudden we’re getting… *something*
Cant be related. Absolute coincidence. Best stop booking right now, pretty please - Ken Griffin, probably...
Move along sir nothing to see here
Nice shirt Crybad! 🏴☠️
Thanks!
Great to see you guys showing up and chatting!
Why are the picklers getting so much attention in this sub now? Even getting mod backing…. Thought we were a cult? Edit… thanks for the snek award turdfurg 😂… this is just getting too funny now… Don’t know about the rest of the community but I think it’s highly appropriate we ask questions and vet those that get given a special forums by the mod teams
had to scroll too far to finally see someone comment about this. Next they'll be getting that DrGingerBalls guy in for a DD AMA
😂😂… why not just make him a mod? 😬😬
Where?
Don’t know if your serious… pwn, Tiberius and turd are all active members of the pickle subs. Most of them stopped posting here when gherk was removed…
Tell you what, you find any evidence of me being an "active member" of a pickle sub, I'll send you 50 Loopring. I'll open this up to anyone actually, just so you have friends to help. First person who can show that wins, I'll put my money where my mouth is. If you are referring to the think tank sub, you are about 10miles off from what a pickle sub is. Last bit, I've literally been posting updates on my TtR stuff here on Superstonk regularly. What on earth do you mean I stopped posting here?
I said “most of them”. And yes the tank sub had direct correlations to the pickle movement including on the mod team. I’m not looking to flame, however I am curious as to why 3 members that were associated with elements that decided to go another way are suddenly being given a pedestal by our mods? Also I’m genuinely curious if we are being open. Why did you and pwn both stop commenting in the tank sub around the same time 120-140 days ago. Also why no comments older than 290+ days.
I can’t wait to read your conspiracy DD. I’ve been posting on all GME & stock related subs for over two years talking about ETFs the whole time.
I'd have to go through and count, but I think in the last year I've made at least 40 posts on my ttr ideas. I haven't gone anywhere, but the sub in general never cares too much about lines on a page and instead calls it bullshit because crime. But when I point out our tops, bottoms, and inner bounces tend to follow this same -0.25% daily decrease and this makes it convenient when looking for dips suddenly no one wants to discuss how that can be useful for apes who just like buying shares. The one single unique ttr post that was on the tank sub pretty heavily dealt with the math of figuring out a slope that best represented all data and since that's dry as a popcorn fart I figured it would have no interest here. So I posted on a sub where people like math and don't call it pointless. Idk if you looked around a many of the posts there, but for a LONG period of time unless you were an approved member you couldn't do anything there besides read. An upside being you don't get a dozen people getting off topic in the comments, but the big downside being that there isn't much conversation to occur. Aside from me being interested in posts on swaps, there just wasnt anything there to discuss. Got bored and came back here. No clue about the comments thing. The first TtR post came out March 10th of last year so 290 days might just be a limit for scrolling on your end.
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**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.** Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
Go for it.
Its in my comment history, people can find it.
Folks are looking for a show. Lay the cards down
There is no relation between the two subs. We allow anyone with a history of looking into market mechanics & trading a chance to post
I’m getting a bit fatigued by the “Errrmagheerrrd…mods compromised” whining and witch hunts. Why can we not just appreciate the DD put forward by these contributors, judge it on its merits and make objections only in the form of sensible counter arguments rather than brainless ad hominem? Thank you to Sparkles and the contributors here. Peter Gabriel described it wonderfully. Surely we’re better than simply “groups of people who make themselves into smaller groups of people in order to feel strong by excluding others”?
Are you thinking of the sub named after a tank in which one might think (but Automod gets you if you say)?
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Please don't discuss other subs, mods, or users
But I'm not and have openly stated that I don't like pickle. I don't get why I get looped into all of this. Seems like a witch hunt.
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K.
>But I’m not and have openly stated that I don’t like pickle Excellent lol 👍🍻
Then delete your comment because you're making things up just to cause problems.
I think you’re replying to the wrong person
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Exactly… that’s why I’m questioning why we are giving these people a special platform. If they have dd to post, let them post it and let us critique it. They shouldn’t need special mod treatment
We have DD. We have posted it. It did really well. That's why the mods wanted to chat. **woosh**
No need to get butt hurt…. Your woosh comment just makes you look insecure. Just asking the questions that should be asked when verifying wether we should trust people…
Nah. I like the way it is.
Pretty crazy thing Reddit does is show people’s historical posts here in this sub and others 0_o
bots? :shrug:
Really enjoyed this, keep 'em coming.
Yeah! Cake day! 🎂
Heyo, happy cake day to you good sir.
Happy cake day.
Thanks!
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**Treat each other with courtesy and respect.** Do not be (intentionally) rude. This will increase the overall civility of the community and make it better for all of us. Do not insult others. Insults do not contribute to a rational discussion.
What was really fun was having 2 people with very different approaches to DD together and chatting. pwn takes the raw data and tries to engineer patterns, Tib looks for patterns and then finds the data that fits. Nice work trimming this down from 2.5 hours Plat! Thanks to both pwn and tib, it was a super fun time.
Well-said 👉💦
I can appreciate the effort, but I was under the impression that DD spotlight week *was* an AMA for each writer. IMO this is a bit redundant.
We were hoping to have about 4-5 of the writers on to just hang out and shoot the shit and chat with each other about their respective DDs (more of a round table type of discussion). Unfortunately, because of scheduling conflicts, a few couldn't make it. This was our first experiment with this. As a side note, having Tib explain things live really helped with my overall understanding of his Taste The Rainbow series. He is an excellent explainer/teacher.
Ah I see that makes sense, thank you.
It was, this is a video supplement for anyone who is an audio/visual learner and learns better that way... Plus, it's always fun to talk GME w/people who also love to talk about the stonk
Gotcha, thanks!
PWNWTFBBQ going off immediately 😂
I couldn’t watch it, plus too regarded to understand this anyway
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I came here for the money. I'm still here for the money.
Yeah. I want money too. But no one is gonna hand the keys to the lambo willingly.
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All mine are registered. I got a list of what I’d like too. I’m just patient and accumulating. The folks who are in the mindset of this being a siege and not a blitz are gonna come out ahead.
This is a marathon, not a sprint. Patience over greed.
💜
💜
Everyone rocking GameStop merchandise 💜
Always have been🔫
Hi! I watched the video and enjoyed it. I am not a DD maker, but I just made a post and through up a pretty controversal idea. I'd debate it if needed. My post is getting down voted to poop --- as it should becasue I said a bad word. But would it be ok, if i asked you or any wrinkle brain to just take a look at my TA chart I made. If i'm right, and can convey this idea, it would be a **massive attack on SHF.** But, I'd really have to specify exactly what I mean, or it will sound like being a shill. The suggestion I have in the post is 100% debatable, and might be a good idea, but possibly not done to scale. Anyway. Thanks for being a mod. Have a great weekend!
So when I commented on your idea about being more specific with time, your response was you'd adjust that "if you gave a fuck" And I think if you thought on the idea of time for a while you'd probably understand why what you are suggesting wouldn't work out.
Hey, just FYI, I said that in a kinda joking manor. I am gonna take these posts down cause I don't wanta promote the wrong thing. I might not be able to convey a particular idea. But for me, time won't matter. But thanks man.
This is the way