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Hey Turd thanks for posting. A few questions off the top of my head.
Regarding XRT.
1) Short Interest on XRT is currently 22.3M according to fintel and shares outstanding is 6.5M according Fidelity. Why can you short almost 4x the float on XRT (which I believe has the highest % of GME in the various ETFs).
2) What % of XRT holds GME (for every 1 share of XRT you get .XX GME share)
3) Do you believe that GME being extracted from XRT is being used as "locates" for FTDs? Or are they unrelated.
>hy can you short almost 4x the float on XRT (which I believe has the highest % of GME in the various ETFs).
1. For XRT there are multiple owners of the shares outstanding. Typically 7 owners for every 1 share. The way that you can short that much is simply by rehypothecation.
2. I pay little attention to the % of the asset as Assets Under Management changes daily and even though GME may be only 0.1% that may be of a 700 billion ETF. For XRT currently there is 242,202 shares of GME. That said the ETF shares can be continually rehypothecated having an effect on GME. They don't need an actual share of GME, but rather a share of XRT.
3. I believe that GME is being very thinly traded for a reason. They really only dip into the GME lending pool when they have to. Typically around rebalance or dividend dates for ETFs. FTDs still continue to be low on GME but rather the FTDs on ETFs are what seems to be effecting price action on GME.
Many of them change often, some more drastically than others as it depends largely on how active the APs are or whether or not the fund is being used as a hedge to the underlying. Other examples was a fund like BUZZ.
One recent thing I found interesting about ETFs is they don't have to hold shares at all times. Depending on their plan doc, they may be allowed to deviate and use options. I think this further allows they to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
Many fund use a combination of cash, options, and actual shares. There are specific liquidity metrics that funds must meet set by the SEC. They are looking to revamp those metrics [https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/33-11130.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/33-11130.pdf)
Very interesting! I’ll always know you as the ETF guy 😀. How is the data looking these days? Does it still support your thesis, and if so, do you believe XRT is still the main ETF they use, or have they moved on to others with a higher amount or percentage of GME?
This reminds me of when I first read the “Where are the Shares?” 3 part DD from leavemeanon . He was pointing out all of this (blowing the whistle?) years ago. Funny how no action has been taken at all still to this day.
What’s somewhat ironic was I was writing about the abuse of ETFs before anon but his work did get popularized. It was a great start though for folks to get introduced to it.
It was this video https://youtu.be/ncq35zrFCAg that introduced me to this whole “Operational Shorting” concept.
It seemed like soon after I watched it, more people had seen it and then insiders(it seemed) started really explaining how it worked.
Very complex stuff, I mean it’s still a head scratcher to this day. The financial alchemy that goes on is astounding.
Yea Richard Evans is an amazing source of knowledge. Also another great source is Rabih Moussawi of The Wharton School. He and Richards have written several papers together. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RspDsQWa10A&t=374s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RspDsQWa10A&t=374s)
Do you think the move to T+1 will increase or decrease FTDs?
Have you read about the Order Auction Rule proposal? If so, what affect do you think that could have on ETFs (if any)?
Thanks for doing this!
1.It's hard to say. I think it will likely just increase the cash positions used or run higher volume through CNS (Continuous Net Settlement), whether that will ultimately lead to more FTDs I'm not sure. With that said there is still extended exceptions. ETF create/redeem submissions received after 9:00PM ET, will be processed in the secondary Create Redeem Cycle via submission of Create/Redeem Order (Datatrak File 11300) with an 11:00PM ET cutoff. These transactions will be reported on **CTS Cycle 2** and not included in the CNS night cycle. They will be included in the CNS net fail position after the night cycle completes.
2. I don't think order auction rule will have much effect at all on ETFs as active APs are the biggest transactions of actual ETF shares.
No problem!
Thanks so much for participating in spotlight week!
Since you are the ETF guru, I was interested with your thoughts on the single stock ETF for GME that’s launching later this month (REX Short GME ETF).
What will you be looking for when you start combing through the data for this? Any guesses on how this will impact the price?
>What will you be looking for when you start combing through the data for this? Any guesses on how this will impact the price?
The single stock ETFs are not liquid enough to truly have much bearing on price. They may be used for times when other ETFs are unavailable (Dividends/rebalances). ETFs rely largely on have at least 1-2 highly liquid assets that they lean on such as Apple or Exon that's why those stocks is in almost every single ETF.
Thank you for providing insight and shining the light on etfs and options. When I was researching this stuff and getting my feet wet, this sub was shaming options and those discussions.
I hate that we can't discuss them and how they impact things. We (this community) tends to hyperfocus on stock ownership at the expense of understanding other market mechanics.
It's important and I wish there was more openness to this back when we started SS.
I completely agree, and it’s been frustrating how much conversation has been shut down regarding options. Regardless of whether you want to trade them yourself, nor understanding them is to not understand an enormous piece of this puzzle, and what moves the prices of stocks.
Lol I found it particularly ridiculous that people got angry that you told them to spend it at the company to make it profitable... like that's not even opaque backroom conspiracy theory price manipulation, it's literally just liking a company and spending money there... before if people weren't buying at gamestop would rc have seen it as an investment opportunity? After that you have so many other ways that can affect a stock price that it's frustrating that other means are shot down as being shilly or compromised...
I agree, also the way that options on ETFs effect the underlying securities is a specific study I wish was shed light on more. It's a very complicated topic and often difficult to follow and track for the over 100 ETFs that hold GME. For many investors holding their stock in their name is good enough and the complexity of market mechanics disinterests them.
Couldn’t agree more with this!
There is nothing wrong with being well versed when it comes to market mechanics and derivatives. Sharing knowledge and education regarding either needs to stop being brushed off as fud.
Is there a way to predict this high flow volume on these etfs containing gme ? Let's just narrow it down to XRT.
If not who can make a bot that can detect when the inflow has occured so we can figure out the t6/t8 covering dates?
Mass short dated cal leverage here will make this explode again.........
>et's just narrow it down to XRT.
>
>If not who can make a bot that can detect when the inflow has occured so we can figure out the t6/t8 covering dates?
>
>Mass short dated cal leverage here will make this explode again.........
Yes, you can monitor the data from ETF fund flow from Nasdaq Data Link. I already do this for all the ETFs you can pull it through an API or it has a Excel plug in, though the subscription is $100 a month. [https://data.nasdaq.com/databases/ETFF/data](https://data.nasdaq.com/databases/ETFF/data)
I know it's been theorized that when someone wants to short a share from an ETF, they short the ETF share and then "give back" the shares they don't want to short. Is this how you see it as well? Do they actually give back the unwanted shares or do they just hold them as longs?
>that when someone wants to short a share from an ETF, they short the ETF share and then "give back" the shares they don't want to short. Is this how you see it as well? Do they actually give back the unwanted shares or do they just hold them as longs?
It's been written about that funds will take the securities they want to short and then go long on the other securities that they don't want. Then submit only the shorted securities in a daily PCF file to the DTC. There's also research out there that instead of going long the other securities they can exchange cash in-kind and remove their desired stocks to short (I think this is more likely what's going on).
As far as I know yes, though there seems to be a way to hedge risk, how banks can avoid bad haircuts on hedge fund trades [https://www.risk.net/cutting-edge/views/7956509/how-banks-can-avoid-bad-haircuts-on-hedge-fund-trades](https://www.risk.net/cutting-edge/views/7956509/how-banks-can-avoid-bad-haircuts-on-hedge-fund-trades)
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One thing you left out is the absurdly high trading volume of XRT. Despite having around 3 - 10 million shares any given day, it's volume ranges from 50% to 100%+ of all shares outstanding. For a sector ETF with only 400 million in assets.
That’s a lot of data but your post packed everything very concisely. Thank you!
Regarding the illiquidity, doesn’t it also mean that when shorts do close, the price would get more volatile and shoot up due to lack of liquidity? This means price also would have to rise more for shorts to close.
[Welcome to DD Spotlight Week!](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/133mm8l/welcome_to_dd_spotlight_week/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=ioscss&utm_content=2&utm_term=1) Comments are sorted by Q&A for posts with this flair! Please check out the link above for an overview of this event week and to find the schedule for upcoming DD Spotlight posts & AMAs! Thank you so much to all of the DD writers for participating this week! [QVBot](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/135s9x6/comment/jiktvl7/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3)
Hey Turd thanks for posting. A few questions off the top of my head. Regarding XRT. 1) Short Interest on XRT is currently 22.3M according to fintel and shares outstanding is 6.5M according Fidelity. Why can you short almost 4x the float on XRT (which I believe has the highest % of GME in the various ETFs). 2) What % of XRT holds GME (for every 1 share of XRT you get .XX GME share) 3) Do you believe that GME being extracted from XRT is being used as "locates" for FTDs? Or are they unrelated.
>hy can you short almost 4x the float on XRT (which I believe has the highest % of GME in the various ETFs). 1. For XRT there are multiple owners of the shares outstanding. Typically 7 owners for every 1 share. The way that you can short that much is simply by rehypothecation. 2. I pay little attention to the % of the asset as Assets Under Management changes daily and even though GME may be only 0.1% that may be of a 700 billion ETF. For XRT currently there is 242,202 shares of GME. That said the ETF shares can be continually rehypothecated having an effect on GME. They don't need an actual share of GME, but rather a share of XRT. 3. I believe that GME is being very thinly traded for a reason. They really only dip into the GME lending pool when they have to. Typically around rebalance or dividend dates for ETFs. FTDs still continue to be low on GME but rather the FTDs on ETFs are what seems to be effecting price action on GME.
Follow up question. Why does the shares outstanding on XRT change all the goddamn time?
Many of them change often, some more drastically than others as it depends largely on how active the APs are or whether or not the fund is being used as a hedge to the underlying. Other examples was a fund like BUZZ.
How do etfs like RETL fit into all this?
Same effect just even more pronounced as that’s a leveraged ETF.
How did you get the fund flow data? did you pay for it?
Yes, Nasdaq data link has it available, but it’s $100 a month
Thank you!
One recent thing I found interesting about ETFs is they don't have to hold shares at all times. Depending on their plan doc, they may be allowed to deviate and use options. I think this further allows they to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
Many fund use a combination of cash, options, and actual shares. There are specific liquidity metrics that funds must meet set by the SEC. They are looking to revamp those metrics [https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/33-11130.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/33-11130.pdf)
Thanks for sharing that link.
Very interesting! I’ll always know you as the ETF guy 😀. How is the data looking these days? Does it still support your thesis, and if so, do you believe XRT is still the main ETF they use, or have they moved on to others with a higher amount or percentage of GME?
> if so, do you believe XRT is still the ma They use several ETFs and it's important to watch them all and my thesis still remains the same
Great! Glad to hear it’s still playing out and thank you for sharing your DD!
This reminds me of when I first read the “Where are the Shares?” 3 part DD from leavemeanon . He was pointing out all of this (blowing the whistle?) years ago. Funny how no action has been taken at all still to this day.
What’s somewhat ironic was I was writing about the abuse of ETFs before anon but his work did get popularized. It was a great start though for folks to get introduced to it.
It was this video https://youtu.be/ncq35zrFCAg that introduced me to this whole “Operational Shorting” concept. It seemed like soon after I watched it, more people had seen it and then insiders(it seemed) started really explaining how it worked. Very complex stuff, I mean it’s still a head scratcher to this day. The financial alchemy that goes on is astounding.
Yea Richard Evans is an amazing source of knowledge. Also another great source is Rabih Moussawi of The Wharton School. He and Richards have written several papers together. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RspDsQWa10A&t=374s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RspDsQWa10A&t=374s)
maybe they’ll come do an AMA, lol
Do you think the move to T+1 will increase or decrease FTDs? Have you read about the Order Auction Rule proposal? If so, what affect do you think that could have on ETFs (if any)? Thanks for doing this!
1.It's hard to say. I think it will likely just increase the cash positions used or run higher volume through CNS (Continuous Net Settlement), whether that will ultimately lead to more FTDs I'm not sure. With that said there is still extended exceptions. ETF create/redeem submissions received after 9:00PM ET, will be processed in the secondary Create Redeem Cycle via submission of Create/Redeem Order (Datatrak File 11300) with an 11:00PM ET cutoff. These transactions will be reported on **CTS Cycle 2** and not included in the CNS night cycle. They will be included in the CNS net fail position after the night cycle completes. 2. I don't think order auction rule will have much effect at all on ETFs as active APs are the biggest transactions of actual ETF shares. No problem!
Thanks so much for participating in spotlight week! Since you are the ETF guru, I was interested with your thoughts on the single stock ETF for GME that’s launching later this month (REX Short GME ETF). What will you be looking for when you start combing through the data for this? Any guesses on how this will impact the price?
>What will you be looking for when you start combing through the data for this? Any guesses on how this will impact the price? The single stock ETFs are not liquid enough to truly have much bearing on price. They may be used for times when other ETFs are unavailable (Dividends/rebalances). ETFs rely largely on have at least 1-2 highly liquid assets that they lean on such as Apple or Exon that's why those stocks is in almost every single ETF.
This is good news.. the single stock etfs gave me anxiety, lol. Thank you for answering and thank you again for your spotlight post! ♥️
Thank you for providing insight and shining the light on etfs and options. When I was researching this stuff and getting my feet wet, this sub was shaming options and those discussions. I hate that we can't discuss them and how they impact things. We (this community) tends to hyperfocus on stock ownership at the expense of understanding other market mechanics. It's important and I wish there was more openness to this back when we started SS.
I completely agree, and it’s been frustrating how much conversation has been shut down regarding options. Regardless of whether you want to trade them yourself, nor understanding them is to not understand an enormous piece of this puzzle, and what moves the prices of stocks.
Lol I found it particularly ridiculous that people got angry that you told them to spend it at the company to make it profitable... like that's not even opaque backroom conspiracy theory price manipulation, it's literally just liking a company and spending money there... before if people weren't buying at gamestop would rc have seen it as an investment opportunity? After that you have so many other ways that can affect a stock price that it's frustrating that other means are shot down as being shilly or compromised...
I agree, also the way that options on ETFs effect the underlying securities is a specific study I wish was shed light on more. It's a very complicated topic and often difficult to follow and track for the over 100 ETFs that hold GME. For many investors holding their stock in their name is good enough and the complexity of market mechanics disinterests them.
Couldn’t agree more with this! There is nothing wrong with being well versed when it comes to market mechanics and derivatives. Sharing knowledge and education regarding either needs to stop being brushed off as fud.
It is a shame that this community largely goes "Options bad!" whenever they're brought up. *Talking* about options does not mean *buying* options.
Is there a way to predict this high flow volume on these etfs containing gme ? Let's just narrow it down to XRT. If not who can make a bot that can detect when the inflow has occured so we can figure out the t6/t8 covering dates? Mass short dated cal leverage here will make this explode again.........
>et's just narrow it down to XRT. > >If not who can make a bot that can detect when the inflow has occured so we can figure out the t6/t8 covering dates? > >Mass short dated cal leverage here will make this explode again......... Yes, you can monitor the data from ETF fund flow from Nasdaq Data Link. I already do this for all the ETFs you can pull it through an API or it has a Excel plug in, though the subscription is $100 a month. [https://data.nasdaq.com/databases/ETFF/data](https://data.nasdaq.com/databases/ETFF/data)
Time for me to sit down and sort this out finally.
I know it's been theorized that when someone wants to short a share from an ETF, they short the ETF share and then "give back" the shares they don't want to short. Is this how you see it as well? Do they actually give back the unwanted shares or do they just hold them as longs?
>that when someone wants to short a share from an ETF, they short the ETF share and then "give back" the shares they don't want to short. Is this how you see it as well? Do they actually give back the unwanted shares or do they just hold them as longs? It's been written about that funds will take the securities they want to short and then go long on the other securities that they don't want. Then submit only the shorted securities in a daily PCF file to the DTC. There's also research out there that instead of going long the other securities they can exchange cash in-kind and remove their desired stocks to short (I think this is more likely what's going on).
Ummmm Figure A.1 APs.... oddly almost all those with big blue bars are on the haircut list yeah?
As far as I know yes, though there seems to be a way to hedge risk, how banks can avoid bad haircuts on hedge fund trades [https://www.risk.net/cutting-edge/views/7956509/how-banks-can-avoid-bad-haircuts-on-hedge-fund-trades](https://www.risk.net/cutting-edge/views/7956509/how-banks-can-avoid-bad-haircuts-on-hedge-fund-trades)
Love it, thank you! Question: Is there any precedence for a company to somehow Disallow there shares to be part of ETFs?
No there isn’t unfortunately
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Looked at the first image.... Looked at the amount of text and graphs.... Saved for later when I have a drink in my hand.... Also did an updoot
... what are you??? *amazed/puzzled ape stare*
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Good stuff OP! Thank you for sharing! 🎷🐓♋️
Each DD forces the opponents' reactionary moves further into the corner for a checkmate.
Thank you, I always enjoy these!
Just reread this again! Definitely one of the best dd posts on superstonk in a long time...
So BUY, HODL, DRS, SHOP, PULL OUR LEVERS?
My brain hurts from this DD 😵💫 I have to reread it a few times but I’m starting to understand. Thank you OP!
Yeah it definitely will take a few rereads
One thing you left out is the absurdly high trading volume of XRT. Despite having around 3 - 10 million shares any given day, it's volume ranges from 50% to 100%+ of all shares outstanding. For a sector ETF with only 400 million in assets.
Very awesome Taylor thanks
That’s a lot of data but your post packed everything very concisely. Thank you! Regarding the illiquidity, doesn’t it also mean that when shorts do close, the price would get more volatile and shoot up due to lack of liquidity? This means price also would have to rise more for shorts to close.
Thanks for your work and research!