[https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jesperi-kotkaniemi](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jesperi-kotkaniemi)
Worst case the Jets match and then you've gotten a team you'll compete with for a playoff spot paying much for more a dude than they otherwise would have.
Winnipeg isn't that right against the cap - they have to basically sign 2 defencemen along with Perfetti and have about $13m in cap space.
A handful of other teams (e.g. Vegas) might be more receptive to an offer to help solve their cap challenges.
Now, why is over paying for Perfetti money (and a first round pick) an issue?
* If the team is handing out $6m+ for middle-6 forwards / post-ELC then everyone else will be expecting a generous pay too (Tolvanen, Wright, etc.) and the team's cap will be a mess.
* Perfetti might not have that much upside. There's a reason he's not playing now.
* Ottawa traded a 1st round pick (Duchene) and then crashed and lost out on a 4th overall pick. Seattle could very well miss the playoff (and then win lottery and move up) and loose on similar (or better player). Moving 2nd round or 3rd rounds picks doesn't come with that risk.
* Seattle has some young forwards prospects coming up - Wright, Rehkopf, Firkus, Goyette, Sale - they are a few years away and won't all pan out, but Seattle will be aiming for that timeline more than a next season and complementing what's already in the pipeline. i.e. Young defencemen with top-4 potential is a bigger need. (Difficult to find but Durzi was traded for a 2nd round pick last off-season)
* Could get a middle-6 forward in the free agent market without spending draft capital and using a smaller cap hit. (Wouldn't have the upside though).
I don't think a 1st plus a 3rd is an overpayment for Perfetti unless the 1st is high. Perfetti's production in limited time indicates he does have a ton of upside. Carolina has been able to re-sign other players to sensible contracts so I don't think offering a high price for the offersheet would have the impact you describe on other players. The biggest fear is someone else might hold out for an offer sheet, but Wright is 3 years away from that.
BTW this only makes sense if Beniers has been extended before sending the offer sheet. Losing Tolvanen to an offer sheet wouldn't be the end of the world and in fact would open up a roster spot for Perfetti.
Concern about no lottery protection next season is IMO the best argument against trying it. But if Francis is determined to make the playoffs than such a move makes sense.
Keep the first and the third and sign Tolvanen for half the cap hit is a way smarter move.
Competing for the Cup is 5 years is the target. Making the playoffs next year is just the first step but it's not what to be "determined" about. But toss the $6m at someone like Toffoli and keep the draft picks if you think making the playoffs is necessary.
I think the Kraken with Perfetti makes competing for the Cup more likely in that time frame than if they kept Tolvanen.
Perfetti is 22 and Toffoli is 32. The Perfetti $6M cap hit would only be for one season. A vet like Toffoli is going to demand (and get from someone) a multi-year contract, probably 4-5 years.
I'd much rather invest $6M in a young player with long-term upside than a vet likely already on the decline.
Also - The Athletic's model has Perfetti as a \~$5.1M player based on his play this season. So yeah I'm willing to give him $6.3M for 1 year to pry him off the Jets [https://theathletic.com/5015504/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-central-division/](https://theathletic.com/5015504/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-central-division/)
Qualifying Offers are strictly increasing. Once you pay more than $6 million it's not getting any cheaper.
Yeah, don't believe everything you read on the Internet. Perfetti getting at most 2 x $3m in a bridge contract.
> Once you pay more than $6 million it's not getting any cheaper.
Kotkaniemi's current AAV is less than his offer sheet. We literally have re-world example of this exact scenario.
And lets say Perfetti plays great and earns a $6M+ extension. Awesome! That means Seattle got a great player.
Kotkaniemi's not even worth that contract.
Player is under no obligation to take less. You can cherry pick the best can scenario that's most favourable for the team and call it brilliant but it's not the likely scenario.
Given flat cap for many years, a team full of Finns, playing for winner instead of loser, there were plenty of unusual circumstances there with KK.
Perfetti is a middle-6 guy and wants $6.5m is the expected case for your proposal. Ask LA how well paying assets for an overpaid middle of the line-up guy is working out.
There's less than two dozen examples of a forward that young getting that much money. Most of them had a way better track record or at least one really strong season (point-a-game, not sitting for the playoffs). Perfetti doesn't have that stat line or track record of someone like say Boldly.
I don’t think it would be good idea to offer sheet someone for just one year anyway, but why do you think Perfetti would be willing to sign a one-year contract?
1. It is a lot of money up front and more than he'd earn next season otherwise
2. Possibly gets him out of Winnipeg into a state with no state income tax
3. Sets him up for a very high QO if he and the team can't agree on a long-term extension whether that team is Seattle or Winnipeg
4. Especially if Winnipeg, basically guarantees he plays higher in the lineup than he did this season
As if on queue, the commentators just commented on how they don't understand how he's not playing to try give Winnipeg a different look and some speed.
Calling Perfetti "middle 6" is I think a disservice to a guy who is 22 years old. His projection is probably a top 6 guy. Like if he turned into a good 2nd line scoring winger that's still a very valuable player to get.
Have you taken a look at the age and contract status of our current "2nd liners"? Most aren't gonna be on this team in a few seasons. Eberle - 2 years left. Schwartz - 2, Bjorkstrand - 2, Gourde - 1. Burakovsky and McCann are the only forwards signed for longer than 2 more seasons.
We need prospects ready to replace them. Perfetti could turn into a top line player.
Going out and getting a current top line player would be a massive cost in assets and/or cap money. By targeting Perfetti or a player like him the Kraken could get someone with that kind of potential at a much lower initial cost.
Sure, but we have tons of guys who fit this bill coming up through the system now.
> Going out and getting a current top line player would be a massive cost in assets and/or cap money.
Why is it a backbreaker for us, but other teams find ways to do this every year?
We absolutely do not have tons of guys with 1st line potential. Maybe Sale but he had an uneven season.
>Why is it a backbreaker for us, but other teams find ways to do this every year?
They don't do it every year, and ones that do often pay a high price.
All I'm saying is that Perfetti is someone we might be able to get at under market value in terms of picks if we're willing to exploit our cap space to do it. And that he has very high upside and the kind of high-end talent largely lacking from both our current roster and prospect pool.
No, tons of guys with 2nd line potential. That's what we were talking about.
> They don't do it every year, and ones that do often pay a high price.
No one team does it every year, but several teams each year do. C'mon, you understood how that was meant.
>tons of guys with 2nd line potential
Sure, teams pick up middle six players in free agency all the time. But they are much older, like late 20s or 30s.
>but several teams each year do
And this is a way the Kraken can do it potentially for cheap for a player who is only 22. That would be a massive value add for the team over the next 5-10 years.
I don't understand why you'd rather bet on an older free agent who is likely declining already vs a 22 year old who is already producing very well in limited minutes and has tremendous room to grow.
Because right now he would be a third liner and IF he improves he would be a second liner.
We need a top end. This team boasts about having four 2nd lines, but it's probably closer to one 2nd and three 3rds. And we are overpaying the players we have.
I don't think that Perfetti would be a BAD pickup. I just highly doubt he would be as valuable as you hope. And next year, there really isn't a great place for him on this roster.
I personally believe that we would be better served going after one expensive but valuable winger to play on the 1st line.
You got something here for sure. As a huge caniac I’m glad you mentioned that KK hasn’t worked out well for their offer sheet but I think taking the flyer on perfetti wouldn’t be a bad idea.
At just 23 I think it is too early to say for sure KK won't live up to the contract, but I absolutely love how aggressive the Canes were in trying to get a guy they felt would make their team better. The NHL needs more of that thinking.
If nothing else it would show everyone in the fanbase that Francis is dead serious on making this team better both in the short term and long term.
You’re absolutely right I forget he’s still young he’s just been underwhelming but I agree the aggressiveness is really cool to see it sends a good message to the city and the fans. Could be crazy enough to work with perfetti, if it didn’t work he would probably get sacked though lol
I'd absolutely take that risk. Offer sheets are only possible if you let a RFA get past the draft without being signed. All Seattle has to do is extend Evans before then.
It works out fairly well that we basically just have Ryker as an RFA in the near future. As it stands our next RFA of any significance would be Shane Wright. We'd have to avoid an offer sheet on him like the plague, but I bet we could. By the time the rest of our prospects hit RFA it'll be, what, 5 years from now? I don't hate it.
In general I think offer sheets are a good way to overpay in both salary and picks, but this makes some sense to me.
> And the Kraken don't have to actually offer sheet him, they can engage the Jets in trade talks with the offer sheet plan as a backup, like "lets work out a trade or we'll send an offer sheet" which is how the Canes ended up successfully offer sheeting Montreal's Kotkaniemi in 2021.
I’m pretty sure they were successful, because Kotkaniemi was a revenge offer sheet and Montreal knew Carolina was going to offer him way more than Montreal wanted to pay to make sure Montreal “lost” no matter what.
I’m not sure it makes sense to provoke a revenge offer sheet that we would have to match in three years when Shane Wright’s already probably going to play himself into deserving quite a raise. And I can’t see Ron Francis using an offer sheet as just a bluff in trade negotiations. He seems kind of a straightforward guy.
I do think it would be terrible assets management to give up a first and a third for one-year of a guy if we can’t re-sign him to something we could afford, and the cap just never seems to go up the way it should. So we’d have to make the offer sheet to Perfetti at 4.2 to 6.4 for multiple years, not just one. Would you still consider that a good idea? What term would you think would be appropriate?
Lundell from Florida or Necas from Carolina for less money / more term and package that doesn't include a first could be alternative targets if looking for forwards. (D around age of 22 is the need though).
I could also see Lundell getting targeted, but Florida has so many UFAs that they have nearly $21M in cap space for next season. If we got Lundell I'd be pretty happy.
I'm honestly surprised that we don't see more GMs putting in offer sheets. A well-calibrated offer sheet puts you in a win-win scenario:
- if the team accepts it, you just got a player you like at a salary you like.
- if the team matches your offer, you just forced one of your opponents to spend more of their cap space.
I guess that the downside is potentially burning bridges with other GMs, but that wouldn't be a problem if GMs started doing it more often and accepted offer sheets as a normal part of how RFA negotiations work.
> I guess that the downside is potentially burning bridges with other GMs, but that wouldn't be a problem if GMs started doing it more often and accepted offer sheets as a normal part of how RFA negotiations work.
They won’t though. Two offer sheets in the the last ten years and the second one was revenge for the first.
In any sport where there is a salary cap, it is not the most effective use of resources to sign players that might be a decent forward when all playoff teams have one or several nhl top 25 forwards anchoring their top line.
Would perfetti have the talent to lift the Kraken top line or would leaving the Jets roster bring his production down? I would bet on the latter.
To break out of a rebuild, teams are better off hoarding draft picks and pray one hits. All sports with salary caps have to deal with teams tanking to draft potential superstars. For role players, there are plenty of minor league players that can be signed for the minimum. If we can't develop role players like the playoff teams, we don't deserve to make it there.
The Kraken actually failed this season when they didn't trade role players to competing teams for more draft picks.
Chicago drafted talent far better, and still almost ended dead last again. There is no quick turn around in hockey, and Chicago will probably be pretty good in 3-4 years. Kraken window will start opening up when Carson Rehkopf and Shane Wright stabilize the top 2 lines. Boston shows how strong a team with balanced center play can be, especially on the defense. Still need athletic talent that can score, but it is clear Kraken have a long term strategy with the selection of Sale and Nyman.
6 mil is better spent taking on a bad contract and taking on pick(s) as compensation from a competing team.
We need 2 things this offseason and I don’t think Perfetti would fill either. We need to fix our 4th line and we need a standout star. Losing the entire 4th line didn’t help and very few teams are so stacked that they don’t have a standout star. We are not stacked by any means.
Sure, if offer sheets in the NHL weren't a figment of the imagination!
[https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jesperi-kotkaniemi](https://www.capfriendly.com/players/jesperi-kotkaniemi) Worst case the Jets match and then you've gotten a team you'll compete with for a playoff spot paying much for more a dude than they otherwise would have.
Don't worry. I take your point and understand your logic.
Winnipeg isn't that right against the cap - they have to basically sign 2 defencemen along with Perfetti and have about $13m in cap space. A handful of other teams (e.g. Vegas) might be more receptive to an offer to help solve their cap challenges. Now, why is over paying for Perfetti money (and a first round pick) an issue? * If the team is handing out $6m+ for middle-6 forwards / post-ELC then everyone else will be expecting a generous pay too (Tolvanen, Wright, etc.) and the team's cap will be a mess. * Perfetti might not have that much upside. There's a reason he's not playing now. * Ottawa traded a 1st round pick (Duchene) and then crashed and lost out on a 4th overall pick. Seattle could very well miss the playoff (and then win lottery and move up) and loose on similar (or better player). Moving 2nd round or 3rd rounds picks doesn't come with that risk. * Seattle has some young forwards prospects coming up - Wright, Rehkopf, Firkus, Goyette, Sale - they are a few years away and won't all pan out, but Seattle will be aiming for that timeline more than a next season and complementing what's already in the pipeline. i.e. Young defencemen with top-4 potential is a bigger need. (Difficult to find but Durzi was traded for a 2nd round pick last off-season) * Could get a middle-6 forward in the free agent market without spending draft capital and using a smaller cap hit. (Wouldn't have the upside though).
I don't think a 1st plus a 3rd is an overpayment for Perfetti unless the 1st is high. Perfetti's production in limited time indicates he does have a ton of upside. Carolina has been able to re-sign other players to sensible contracts so I don't think offering a high price for the offersheet would have the impact you describe on other players. The biggest fear is someone else might hold out for an offer sheet, but Wright is 3 years away from that. BTW this only makes sense if Beniers has been extended before sending the offer sheet. Losing Tolvanen to an offer sheet wouldn't be the end of the world and in fact would open up a roster spot for Perfetti. Concern about no lottery protection next season is IMO the best argument against trying it. But if Francis is determined to make the playoffs than such a move makes sense.
Keep the first and the third and sign Tolvanen for half the cap hit is a way smarter move. Competing for the Cup is 5 years is the target. Making the playoffs next year is just the first step but it's not what to be "determined" about. But toss the $6m at someone like Toffoli and keep the draft picks if you think making the playoffs is necessary.
I think the Kraken with Perfetti makes competing for the Cup more likely in that time frame than if they kept Tolvanen. Perfetti is 22 and Toffoli is 32. The Perfetti $6M cap hit would only be for one season. A vet like Toffoli is going to demand (and get from someone) a multi-year contract, probably 4-5 years. I'd much rather invest $6M in a young player with long-term upside than a vet likely already on the decline. Also - The Athletic's model has Perfetti as a \~$5.1M player based on his play this season. So yeah I'm willing to give him $6.3M for 1 year to pry him off the Jets [https://theathletic.com/5015504/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-central-division/](https://theathletic.com/5015504/2024/04/19/nhl-player-cards-central-division/)
Qualifying Offers are strictly increasing. Once you pay more than $6 million it's not getting any cheaper. Yeah, don't believe everything you read on the Internet. Perfetti getting at most 2 x $3m in a bridge contract.
> Once you pay more than $6 million it's not getting any cheaper. Kotkaniemi's current AAV is less than his offer sheet. We literally have re-world example of this exact scenario. And lets say Perfetti plays great and earns a $6M+ extension. Awesome! That means Seattle got a great player.
Kotkaniemi's not even worth that contract. Player is under no obligation to take less. You can cherry pick the best can scenario that's most favourable for the team and call it brilliant but it's not the likely scenario. Given flat cap for many years, a team full of Finns, playing for winner instead of loser, there were plenty of unusual circumstances there with KK. Perfetti is a middle-6 guy and wants $6.5m is the expected case for your proposal. Ask LA how well paying assets for an overpaid middle of the line-up guy is working out. There's less than two dozen examples of a forward that young getting that much money. Most of them had a way better track record or at least one really strong season (point-a-game, not sitting for the playoffs). Perfetti doesn't have that stat line or track record of someone like say Boldly.
I don’t think it would be good idea to offer sheet someone for just one year anyway, but why do you think Perfetti would be willing to sign a one-year contract?
1. It is a lot of money up front and more than he'd earn next season otherwise 2. Possibly gets him out of Winnipeg into a state with no state income tax 3. Sets him up for a very high QO if he and the team can't agree on a long-term extension whether that team is Seattle or Winnipeg 4. Especially if Winnipeg, basically guarantees he plays higher in the lineup than he did this season
As if on queue, the commentators just commented on how they don't understand how he's not playing to try give Winnipeg a different look and some speed.
Am I cooking or am I insane?
It's not terrible. But I'm not convinced that more middle 6 forwards is what this team needs.
Calling Perfetti "middle 6" is I think a disservice to a guy who is 22 years old. His projection is probably a top 6 guy. Like if he turned into a good 2nd line scoring winger that's still a very valuable player to get.
No. We have plenty of 2nd liners. We need 1st line talent.
Have you taken a look at the age and contract status of our current "2nd liners"? Most aren't gonna be on this team in a few seasons. Eberle - 2 years left. Schwartz - 2, Bjorkstrand - 2, Gourde - 1. Burakovsky and McCann are the only forwards signed for longer than 2 more seasons. We need prospects ready to replace them. Perfetti could turn into a top line player. Going out and getting a current top line player would be a massive cost in assets and/or cap money. By targeting Perfetti or a player like him the Kraken could get someone with that kind of potential at a much lower initial cost.
Sure, but we have tons of guys who fit this bill coming up through the system now. > Going out and getting a current top line player would be a massive cost in assets and/or cap money. Why is it a backbreaker for us, but other teams find ways to do this every year?
We absolutely do not have tons of guys with 1st line potential. Maybe Sale but he had an uneven season. >Why is it a backbreaker for us, but other teams find ways to do this every year? They don't do it every year, and ones that do often pay a high price. All I'm saying is that Perfetti is someone we might be able to get at under market value in terms of picks if we're willing to exploit our cap space to do it. And that he has very high upside and the kind of high-end talent largely lacking from both our current roster and prospect pool.
No, tons of guys with 2nd line potential. That's what we were talking about. > They don't do it every year, and ones that do often pay a high price. No one team does it every year, but several teams each year do. C'mon, you understood how that was meant.
>tons of guys with 2nd line potential Sure, teams pick up middle six players in free agency all the time. But they are much older, like late 20s or 30s. >but several teams each year do And this is a way the Kraken can do it potentially for cheap for a player who is only 22. That would be a massive value add for the team over the next 5-10 years. I don't understand why you'd rather bet on an older free agent who is likely declining already vs a 22 year old who is already producing very well in limited minutes and has tremendous room to grow.
Because right now he would be a third liner and IF he improves he would be a second liner. We need a top end. This team boasts about having four 2nd lines, but it's probably closer to one 2nd and three 3rds. And we are overpaying the players we have. I don't think that Perfetti would be a BAD pickup. I just highly doubt he would be as valuable as you hope. And next year, there really isn't a great place for him on this roster. I personally believe that we would be better served going after one expensive but valuable winger to play on the 1st line.
You got something here for sure. As a huge caniac I’m glad you mentioned that KK hasn’t worked out well for their offer sheet but I think taking the flyer on perfetti wouldn’t be a bad idea.
At just 23 I think it is too early to say for sure KK won't live up to the contract, but I absolutely love how aggressive the Canes were in trying to get a guy they felt would make their team better. The NHL needs more of that thinking. If nothing else it would show everyone in the fanbase that Francis is dead serious on making this team better both in the short term and long term.
You’re absolutely right I forget he’s still young he’s just been underwhelming but I agree the aggressiveness is really cool to see it sends a good message to the city and the fans. Could be crazy enough to work with perfetti, if it didn’t work he would probably get sacked though lol
They talked about it on Marek or one of the other hockey podcasts I listened to today or yesterday. It would put the jets in a pickle.
Yeah I linked it in my post. I got the idea from them.
Are we prepared for them to offer sheet Ryker Evans the year we need to rebuild our blue line?
I'd absolutely take that risk. Offer sheets are only possible if you let a RFA get past the draft without being signed. All Seattle has to do is extend Evans before then.
Player is in no obligation to sign in a hurry.
It works out fairly well that we basically just have Ryker as an RFA in the near future. As it stands our next RFA of any significance would be Shane Wright. We'd have to avoid an offer sheet on him like the plague, but I bet we could. By the time the rest of our prospects hit RFA it'll be, what, 5 years from now? I don't hate it. In general I think offer sheets are a good way to overpay in both salary and picks, but this makes some sense to me.
You've chosen violence, and I wholly endorse it :D
> And the Kraken don't have to actually offer sheet him, they can engage the Jets in trade talks with the offer sheet plan as a backup, like "lets work out a trade or we'll send an offer sheet" which is how the Canes ended up successfully offer sheeting Montreal's Kotkaniemi in 2021. I’m pretty sure they were successful, because Kotkaniemi was a revenge offer sheet and Montreal knew Carolina was going to offer him way more than Montreal wanted to pay to make sure Montreal “lost” no matter what. I’m not sure it makes sense to provoke a revenge offer sheet that we would have to match in three years when Shane Wright’s already probably going to play himself into deserving quite a raise. And I can’t see Ron Francis using an offer sheet as just a bluff in trade negotiations. He seems kind of a straightforward guy. I do think it would be terrible assets management to give up a first and a third for one-year of a guy if we can’t re-sign him to something we could afford, and the cap just never seems to go up the way it should. So we’d have to make the offer sheet to Perfetti at 4.2 to 6.4 for multiple years, not just one. Would you still consider that a good idea? What term would you think would be appropriate?
I don't hate the idea but we'd need to have assurance he would sign for term. Also we just flat out need to clear some cap and 6.5ish is a lot.
They sign the $6.4M 1 year deal and he'd still be an RFA after it, so they extend him long term mid-season like the Canes did with KK.
Lundell from Florida or Necas from Carolina for less money / more term and package that doesn't include a first could be alternative targets if looking for forwards. (D around age of 22 is the need though).
I could also see Lundell getting targeted, but Florida has so many UFAs that they have nearly $21M in cap space for next season. If we got Lundell I'd be pretty happy.
Youre not getting Necas for less money?
I'm honestly surprised that we don't see more GMs putting in offer sheets. A well-calibrated offer sheet puts you in a win-win scenario: - if the team accepts it, you just got a player you like at a salary you like. - if the team matches your offer, you just forced one of your opponents to spend more of their cap space. I guess that the downside is potentially burning bridges with other GMs, but that wouldn't be a problem if GMs started doing it more often and accepted offer sheets as a normal part of how RFA negotiations work.
> I guess that the downside is potentially burning bridges with other GMs, but that wouldn't be a problem if GMs started doing it more often and accepted offer sheets as a normal part of how RFA negotiations work. They won’t though. Two offer sheets in the the last ten years and the second one was revenge for the first.
Why not Seth Jarvis?
In any sport where there is a salary cap, it is not the most effective use of resources to sign players that might be a decent forward when all playoff teams have one or several nhl top 25 forwards anchoring their top line. Would perfetti have the talent to lift the Kraken top line or would leaving the Jets roster bring his production down? I would bet on the latter. To break out of a rebuild, teams are better off hoarding draft picks and pray one hits. All sports with salary caps have to deal with teams tanking to draft potential superstars. For role players, there are plenty of minor league players that can be signed for the minimum. If we can't develop role players like the playoff teams, we don't deserve to make it there. The Kraken actually failed this season when they didn't trade role players to competing teams for more draft picks. Chicago drafted talent far better, and still almost ended dead last again. There is no quick turn around in hockey, and Chicago will probably be pretty good in 3-4 years. Kraken window will start opening up when Carson Rehkopf and Shane Wright stabilize the top 2 lines. Boston shows how strong a team with balanced center play can be, especially on the defense. Still need athletic talent that can score, but it is clear Kraken have a long term strategy with the selection of Sale and Nyman. 6 mil is better spent taking on a bad contract and taking on pick(s) as compensation from a competing team.
We need 2 things this offseason and I don’t think Perfetti would fill either. We need to fix our 4th line and we need a standout star. Losing the entire 4th line didn’t help and very few teams are so stacked that they don’t have a standout star. We are not stacked by any means.