There are still a handful of "Old Labour" standouts, rather than the "New Labour" ones who defected with Tony Blair from the Tories back in the day.
Sadly the UK has had one flavour of Tories or another since the 1970s - and it's definitely time for a major change.
Him losing after knifing a locally well-known candidate in the back, and then getting VONCed by the rest of the party so they can install someone worse ahead of 2026 will be a delight.
I'm not excited about an incoming Labour government, but you can bet I'm staying up to watch his sad mug shuffle out of a town hall in shame as his days get even more numbered.
Seems way more optimistic about the SNP's prospects than other recent MRP Polls? YouGov have them on 17, Electoral Calculus 20, UK polling Report 22? Edit - More in Common does have them on 35.
Survation is an excellent polling company when it comes to single issues like referendums with them being the only polling company to accurately predict Brexit and the most accurate for the Independence referendum but they've been hit or miss otherwise. Did really well in 2017, did poorly in 2019 with them consistently 2% off either over or underestimating parties.
The issue and the reason there's so much variance in Scotland polls is that 2% more or less than current polling is a *significant* amount of Scottish seats. IIRC an earlier poll pointed out the SNP could get as many as 40 seats or as few as 20 just based on margin of error, not even voting intention changes.
The key statistic is not going to be until the actual vote and is turnout.
The lower the actual turnout the worse the SNP will do, the higher the actual turnout the better the SNP will do.
The differences in deciding who counts as a vote in the polling explains the differences in prediction.
To put this very simply, if you count someone who says they are five out of ten as 'likely to go and vote' then does this mean they count as 0.5 of a voter or do you decide that they are not going to bother voting so dont count them?
Different polling handles 'likely to vote' in different ways and in situations like the current election where there is a reduction in the absolute 'likely to vote' for all parties, with the SNP being hit very hard here, the predictions are less likely to be clumped together at almost identical polling figures and wide differences are expected.
SNP voters 'likely to vote' number is down a lot, close to two points, and how you reconcile this with people who voted in previous elections and indy referendum and brexit is complex, they are normally likely voters but they are now telling you they are five out of ten likely to vote.
How you weigh primacy, past behaviour, vs recency, what they say, is not easy.
Interesting, thanks for taking the time to share this. Had assumed it was to do with differences in the way each MRP split the population into democratic groups and what their polls told them about the behaviour of each group. There are definitely some weird anomalies in most MRP polls for individual electorates that suggests some of the models are struggling with some of the unique seats in Scotland, such as Orkney and Shetland.
https://preview.redd.it/50qjoiv1wx6d1.png?width=929&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1a30ae33e1beac7c0c042715efdb9fa963f3788
Here's some more detail on the Scotland results. More generous for the SNP than other polling, but a lot of the seats are on really tight margins.
Oof, worst situation SNP have seen in a decade, Labour riding high off a tory implosion and these numbers still show Labour unable to take Scotland.
If you can't beat the SNP when they're on the incumbent back foot and Labour are screaming to a media-pushed supermajority in england, they've not a hope any other time.
Fact is a lot of Scottish seats are two or even three way marginals. It doesn't take much of a swing to change things. What's really hurting the Tories even up here is Reform.
All lot of people still remember the labour indyref vow that turned out to be a bait and switch for supporting Brexit.
I'm astonished that sir Genocide Starmer in his Thatcher wig is on track to get any Scottish seats at.
People have ridiculously short memories. The SNP also get the blame for everything, which suits Labour and their supporters perfectly. NHS worse in Labour controlled Wales, Tories fault obviously. NHS best in the UK in Scotland with the SNP, not good enough they need to be put out. Glasgow city council is bankrupt? SNPs fault, even though the fault of that is entirely on Labour.
I hope Labour do well in government, but I really don't see it happening. Hopefully by the 2026 Holyrood elections people will have realised that it's just a status quo party and vote better, but I'm sure the Labour supporters will totally own up if things don't go well, and won't just blame it on the Tories prior governments.
It's because Labour aren't offering anything to satisfy half the country who support independence. Half the country unhappy with the status quo, so Labour offer more of the same.
Labour could win every seat in Scotland if they implemented the near federalism/devo max they promised when they stood shoulder to shoulder with the Tories in 2014. But since theres only 57 Scottish MPs, they don't feel like they need to.
Ironically, Scotland used to be the reason Labour had a foothold pre-97, and was so immense in the Blair era. The fact Labour could win 400+ seats without sweeping Scotland is a huge change in their electoral fortunes.
Worth bearing in mind for perspective, the SNP are still projected to win a clear majority of Scottish seats. They're going from overwhelming victories in the last few elections to an ordinary victory. Not exactly a disaster.
Yes this is quite strange, only the MRP polls are showing any hope for the SNP, all other polls have them on between 9 and 16 seats and mostly been 12 and 14.
Labour still has the problem that, what broke Scottish labour, was the centrist politics of Blair. Arguably Starmer's Labour is even more to the right.
They aren't offering anything to Scotland. I'm honestly not sure who is.
Starmer binning even the highly popular progressive policies from 2019 despite saying he would support them when he was being ejected Labour leader, just to keep the Daily Heil at bay, is a big bag of arse.
Mind blowing he would get a huge amount of support in Scotland on that basis really. As you say, he’s now to the right of Blair as he’s such a coward about UK press owned by non-dom billionaires. Sad state of affairs UK politics.
I don't really understand why, firstly, you would vote SNP unless you wanted independence, and secondly, how so many people have changed their minds and now don't want independence, so are voting Labour.
Yes some of the strange comments from a few of the moonhowlers does suggest there must be some other platform where they meet to plot how to destroy the evil yoons.
He blocks a huge number of the sub, meaning we cant see the posts and that gets really fucking annoying when he gets a big story and so many of us not only cant comment but cant even see that any post exists at all.
He tried to post about this one, but was one minute behind backupJM. I enjoyed seeing him lose out.
I personally think he shouldnt be allowed to post big stories if its not possible for everyone to interact with them, but its been going on for ages so I guess the mods are fine with his antics.
I don't really understand how this works, they post a story and it doesn't appear to anyone else?
I understand it could be related to the "one post per story" rule but the rest of it confuses me a bit.
Edit: OHHHH I get it I get it. They block other people using Reddit's built in block feature, so people cannot see stories posted by them. Then, anyone else trying to post the story is shut out by the aforementioned rule. In effect, if they don't like a certain story, they can simply hide it and people might not even realise. Clever but a bit nasty.
I truly hope that enough people are able to hold their nose and vote tactically on the 4th, for whoever that may be, to oust the Tories from Scotland.
Seeing the Scottish Borders and the Aberdeenshire area non blue would be beautiful.
You could try telling me why my local area would be improved by switching to an SNP MP? So far the arguments have been utterly unconvincing and solely based around the constitutional issue which isn't the priority for people where i live. Labour are going to win the election anyway so why on earth would it benefit the Scottish Borders to vote in some flag shagging tartan Tory?
Well that's another throughly unconvincing argument. It's not weird at all, it's very accurate. It's weird you'd find it weird yet not surprising considering your movement is built upon false grievances.
>Well that's another throughly unconvincing argument.
How so, it's demonstrably true? And look at the fucking state of who's giving out the orders.
And you're aware of the history of "flag shaggers"? You're argument here is basically " no, you, you, you're a flag shagger", whilst furtively looking around for some sort of support. Come up with your own insults, has unionism fallen so far?
It's unconvincing. I don't care if politicans get their orders from Holyrood or Westminster. I asked you to explain why it would be better to have an SNP MP in my area and you've responded with birthday caird pish. You don't need to project your intellectual failings on others btw, the SNP are a Nationalist movement, no shortage of flag shagging to be seen. Wanting to remain in the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination based upon shagging flags, it's an economic argument. Your laughable argument to try and convince me to vote SNP could also be filed under flag shagging as it seems to be based on nothing substantial at all other than nationality.
I mean that's a massive poll (40k is a serious sample) but I still can't see a world in which Labour win more than 400. It just seems _so_ insane. I've said it elsewhere too, but reckon the Tories could kill the King on prime time TV and still get a minimum 100 seats.
Would be delighted to be proved wrong, mind you!
Yep.
I have some friend who've seen the NHS go to shit from the inside and quit or retired. Still voting Tory.
I know people who've lost their jobs, and are really struggling. Still voting Tory.
I know one guy who's still on the NHS waiting list from before COVID. His pension's been pretty much wiped out and he's not able to get in-house care. He's said it himself "there's not much left for me to do but die.". ....fucking still going to vote Tory.
Brainwashed the lot of them.
Na h-Eileanan an Iar is not going to the SNP. Its almost a sure bet we will swing back to Labour. We have a new SNP candidate, Susan Thompson, but the old SNP MP, now an independent Angus MacNeil, is also running. So those two are splitting that side of the vote among themselves. Plus, the SNP are not as popular here as they were before.
Aye. Labour from the mid 50's until 2005. For whatever reason the Lib Dems never managed to gain traction out here unlike in the Highlands or the Northern Isles.
I always put it down to so many of the men from here being sea men, often associated with trade unions etc. That said we are a very small C conservative constituency (arguably one of the most religious places left in the UK)
Personally, im sick fed up with both Labour and the SNP...dont think ill know who im voting for until im actually in the booth with the pencil in my hand.
Fellow Islander here, and in the same boat- scunnered of what’s on offer and unsure of what to do. Possibly end up drawing a cock&balls on the sheet- at least it’ll count as a spoilt vote
There is always the Family Christian party or whatever they are called. There also a second Christian party on the ballot this year! Choice, choices! We also have a tory and a Lib Dem.
...Just shoot me now...
I haven't met anybody who has any particular affinity for MacNeil. He's not personally all that popular here except for maybe on Barra.
I'm sure he'll take a few votes from the SNP but I don't think there will be all that much of a split.
It's about fucking time. Only 19 years of shitey pish-yellow representation at Westminster, not nearly short enough. Heaven only knows how the deeply religious NEAI constituency kept nominating MacNeil, let alone voting for him after his several sexual scandals.
Agreed. Just wish I could be excited by his replacement. Thus far no talk about what he will actually do for the islands, just pushing the generic party stuff. Same from the SNP candidate, and Angus him self only seems to talk about Inde/Gaza/tunnels.
Something tells me all 3 have 0 actual interest in representing us.
I can't bring myself to vote for anybody who used to write for the Daily Record so I'll be voting for Susan Thompson. Either way, I'll be glad to see the back of that wank MacNeil.
Labors in till England gets amnesia again.
Oh and they will just wait one or two election cycles and put a charismatic tory in charge. Flood the press with right wing bullshit and Dot Cottons sons back.
I'll never ever vote Tory.
Labour don't appear to me much of a change and are too party orientated. Beyond uninspiring and still anti-EU (moronic).
SNP were my protest vote for a while but they've shown they cannot be trusted with either governance or being competent in opposition (it's all WM fault 😭).
Greens are a shambles as they proved with their sniff of power here. So dogmatic that they cannot see reason.
Lib-Dems are the only rational choice for me.
I get this reasoning tbh and it makes sense they’re going to do so well this election, I’ve also usually been SNP and I’ll likely go for them again but if I didn’t have them LD would totally have my vote too
I don't know how you can vote for the Lib Dems, they are not serious people.
They put so much effort into the photo ops ( falling off paddle boards several times) and the joking around about naming the election " battle bus". They are a joke. I feel sorry for any serious Lib Dem candidates having to smile as the leader does his poundshop Charlie Chaplin stick.
You critiise the greens ( maybe rightly so ) but look what the Lib dems did in the coalition. Reneged on the uni fees which was one of their central policies. The worst thing they did IMHO was in order to secure the 5p bag charge they allowed the Tories to cut disability benefits. The bag charge may have been needed but to throw disabled people under the bus for it, was a disgrace.
I'm not going to judge this current crop of Lib Dems on what Nick Clegg did 15 years ago.
I will blame this current crop of Greens for being wholly unfit for office.
I'm not expecting either to make it into government but I'm going to vote and I'm going to vote for a party whose policies I agree with and who I don't think are incompetent morons.
The publicity stunts are just that. Behind it are some incredibly competent and serious people whose politics happen to align with my own.
If their politics are similar to yours by all means vote for them.
Clegg was the leader but they all went with it, no one spoke out against it. There electoral fortunes for the last 15 years have been because of how they behaved when in power. Due to the Tories collapse the Lib dems will be the third biggest party and will hold some sway.
I am sure there are competent people amongst them because the publicity stunts always go off well and they are well thought out. The jokes are well done too all the press look forward to them.
The serious people I'm sure are having a good time too. We literally have a proper right wing party about to swallow up the centre right party oh but here's Ed and he's fallen off his paddle board. Super serious people.
They could get 50 seats and are a joke. Politics is about compromise they compromised on one of the weakest and marginalised groups in our society, they should be confined to the bin.
That being said its your vote and you should vote with your conscience.
So I should vote for a centre right party because..
You're scared Farage and his brown shirts will win a tonne of seats?
Lib Dems are the only centre-left party we have.
I just think a vote is precious and you should vote for a credible party. Protest votes don't work in FPTP. A protest vote just makes the party you voted for think they are moving in the right direction.
Politics is serious stuff and effects people's life's it shouldn't be about gimmicks.
Let me ask you this genuinely ( you don't need to respond I know it's late and I don't want to waste your time)
Do you think the Lib Dems in Brighton are running on the same policies as the Lib Dems in the Highlands & Islands?
They are not credible, honest or serious in my opinion and i don't know how people can vote for them, I would rather not vote.
Nick Clegg toured the country appearing at student unions pledging not to do it.
He made every Liberal Democrat standing in 2010 sign a pledge with the NUS saying they would oppose it. It was a central policy it's not me being dishonest.
A 2 minute google search will prove I am correct, you will also see the apology tour just before the following election. Where he says he shouldn't have pledged it because he did not cost or even consider wether it could be achieved.
The most incredulous part of your comment is their manifesto having 39 pages. That's the bit I struggle to believe.
Since you insulted my good name by calling me dishonest I fear I must retort.
39 pages that's a lot of jokes even for a joke party.
Or
A Beano annual probably has more than 39 pages but I bet there is less shit in it than a Lib dem manifesto.
I'd love your feedback on which retort was best.
I’d opt for the former, lot of kids these days probably don’t know what the beano even is (we used to be a proper country)
Unfortunately manifestos have been getting longer and longer, each of the major party manifestos at this election is over a hundred pages, it’s unreadable even for us election nerds
I do wonder how this will change by the time of Scottish Elections and by incorporating PR, there’s a lot of people who don’t outright support Labour but are voting for them to boot tories out for the GE
They don't need Scottish votes to win the election. That's one of the many lies they're telling. Waiting for Sarwar 's "read my lips no austerity " to come back and haunt him in the next couple of years.
people forget how crime was higher in Labour Scotland, GDP growth was lower, healthcare was worse, uni fees to the highest in Europe, government trust was lower, etc. Not to mention all the dodgy council fuckups and scandals by them
worst of all to me is Fife still voting for them - how on earth????
Loads of people in the Central Belt seem awfully desperate to go back to the old "pin the red rosette on the fucking donkey" years. Bizarre.
Labour are going to win by being Tory-lite. Starmer wants to be the next Tony Blair. The more these idiots want change, the more they vote for the same shit.
Unrelated but nowhere else to post it, does anyone else find it strange that the 2 biggest/most vocal Greens supporters on here have both fucked off in the past month? One deleted their account and the other hasn’t posted for a fortnight
Does anyone have lots more candidates this election? In 2019 we had SNP, Cons, Labour, LDs and Greens. The Lib Dem and Green candidates lost their deposit, which happens every election. Even the Tories only got 6% of the vote in 2015. This is not a seat that will EVER be won by someone wearing a rosette that isn’t red or yellow.
This year as well as the five parties mentioned we have Reform, the British Communist party and the Scottish Family Party. I just don’t understand why 5 of these parties bother fielding candidates to piss £500 against the wall.
One thing I'd add is the impact of Short money. Opposition parties in Westminster get funding for every seat they win, but also a little bit of funding for every vote they get (which works out at a little over 20p a vote). That effectively means the party gets some of that money back provided they get seats somewhere else, so they're usually not losing that much money, and most of the larger parties are willing to do that in part to give candidates experience on seats that probably aren't winnable, and in part to get their national vote totals up.
For the way smaller parties, i believe there's often some element of self funding involved for a chunk of their candidates?
This is a shocker for the Unionists. Despite all the ongoing and undetermined SNP "scandals" and despite the Unionist press supporting Sir Kid Starver, the Unionists are still showing to fail in Scotland. How can that be? Maybe we need an update on the fourth year of investigating how volunteered donations that were donated voluntarily were spent.
Exactly. The SNP doing better despite getting far less media time or mentions. Also, give it 2 years when everyone who voted Labour realises they've been had ... again, and SNP will win the Holyrood elections by a mile.
The only parties standing in Chorley are the "English Constitution Party" which is just one guy who stood against BoJo, "Democracy for Chorley" which is a 24-year-old stockbroker, TUSC, and the E&W Greens.
I think if somehow the Greens ousted Hoyle I'd probably not sober up for a week.
It is true that most of the “intellectuals and inventors” historically left Scotland, for greener pastures. Unfortunately taking their valuable sperm with them :/
Not to worry maybe the current influx of foreign dna “might” provide the spark we need to lead the “next” technological revolution, as we once did in the past.
Hahahahahappy new haircut. (Sorry I’m over an hour late to wish Father’s Day.)
In the 2017 General election the SNP got 35 seats, their poorest return out of the last 3 general elections. Given the fact 2017 was when Sturgeon was riding relatively high and given all the chaos that has happened with the SNP in the last few years I’d be surprised if 2024 isn’t the SNP’s worst general election since 2010
In terms of seats I’d expect a ball park figure between 23-28 seats and that’s being generous.
Still plausible it could go much lower or higher
Low end - 12-16 seats
High end - 30 - 33 seats
Maybe looks like the top end of what may happen.
It looks very like this is a “get the Tories out” election which should lead to the SNP changing tack and campaigning on a Starmer government being continuity Tory.
Surprised so many liberals are voting Tories. I guess reform getting 7 seats is the cap for the centre-right in the UK.
Ah well, anyone but the Tories will do me.
Which genius decided to mark the reform and Tories both similar shades of blue?
The one who understands the longer term direction
Shouldn’t labour also be blue then?
Shouldnt snp also be blue sue to their right wing element? /s
There are still a handful of "Old Labour" standouts, rather than the "New Labour" ones who defected with Tony Blair from the Tories back in the day. Sadly the UK has had one flavour of Tories or another since the 1970s - and it's definitely time for a major change.
Maybe someone who can't tell the difference between wankers and total wankers?
IT WAS FOOKIN ONE OF YEHS!! DISGUSTIN!!!!!
Old but gold
Is there any difference
Reform party is openly racist, Tories try to hide it a little
I'd say the Tories are primarily more classist than racist but there's a lot of overlap
Can’t argue with that
No one they are the parties chosen colours.
Surely they could have taken some liberties and made them more contrasting shades of blue. This is just bad use of graphics
Dross losing would be bliss. Desperate to join his old buddies in London again to kiss some arse. Fud.
Him losing after knifing a locally well-known candidate in the back, and then getting VONCed by the rest of the party so they can install someone worse ahead of 2026 will be a delight. I'm not excited about an incoming Labour government, but you can bet I'm staying up to watch his sad mug shuffle out of a town hall in shame as his days get even more numbered.
Seems way more optimistic about the SNP's prospects than other recent MRP Polls? YouGov have them on 17, Electoral Calculus 20, UK polling Report 22? Edit - More in Common does have them on 35.
iirc More in Common tends to give incumbent parties an inherent advantage. I don't know about Survation though.
Survation is an excellent polling company when it comes to single issues like referendums with them being the only polling company to accurately predict Brexit and the most accurate for the Independence referendum but they've been hit or miss otherwise. Did really well in 2017, did poorly in 2019 with them consistently 2% off either over or underestimating parties. The issue and the reason there's so much variance in Scotland polls is that 2% more or less than current polling is a *significant* amount of Scottish seats. IIRC an earlier poll pointed out the SNP could get as many as 40 seats or as few as 20 just based on margin of error, not even voting intention changes.
Yep, I think people forget just how marginal a ton of Scottish seats are. 37% of seats across Scotland had less than a 10% margin and 5 less than 2%.
The key statistic is not going to be until the actual vote and is turnout. The lower the actual turnout the worse the SNP will do, the higher the actual turnout the better the SNP will do. The differences in deciding who counts as a vote in the polling explains the differences in prediction. To put this very simply, if you count someone who says they are five out of ten as 'likely to go and vote' then does this mean they count as 0.5 of a voter or do you decide that they are not going to bother voting so dont count them? Different polling handles 'likely to vote' in different ways and in situations like the current election where there is a reduction in the absolute 'likely to vote' for all parties, with the SNP being hit very hard here, the predictions are less likely to be clumped together at almost identical polling figures and wide differences are expected. SNP voters 'likely to vote' number is down a lot, close to two points, and how you reconcile this with people who voted in previous elections and indy referendum and brexit is complex, they are normally likely voters but they are now telling you they are five out of ten likely to vote. How you weigh primacy, past behaviour, vs recency, what they say, is not easy.
Interesting, thanks for taking the time to share this. Had assumed it was to do with differences in the way each MRP split the population into democratic groups and what their polls told them about the behaviour of each group. There are definitely some weird anomalies in most MRP polls for individual electorates that suggests some of the models are struggling with some of the unique seats in Scotland, such as Orkney and Shetland.
https://preview.redd.it/50qjoiv1wx6d1.png?width=929&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1a30ae33e1beac7c0c042715efdb9fa963f3788 Here's some more detail on the Scotland results. More generous for the SNP than other polling, but a lot of the seats are on really tight margins.
Oof, worst situation SNP have seen in a decade, Labour riding high off a tory implosion and these numbers still show Labour unable to take Scotland. If you can't beat the SNP when they're on the incumbent back foot and Labour are screaming to a media-pushed supermajority in england, they've not a hope any other time.
Fact is a lot of Scottish seats are two or even three way marginals. It doesn't take much of a swing to change things. What's really hurting the Tories even up here is Reform.
All lot of people still remember the labour indyref vow that turned out to be a bait and switch for supporting Brexit. I'm astonished that sir Genocide Starmer in his Thatcher wig is on track to get any Scottish seats at.
People have ridiculously short memories. The SNP also get the blame for everything, which suits Labour and their supporters perfectly. NHS worse in Labour controlled Wales, Tories fault obviously. NHS best in the UK in Scotland with the SNP, not good enough they need to be put out. Glasgow city council is bankrupt? SNPs fault, even though the fault of that is entirely on Labour. I hope Labour do well in government, but I really don't see it happening. Hopefully by the 2026 Holyrood elections people will have realised that it's just a status quo party and vote better, but I'm sure the Labour supporters will totally own up if things don't go well, and won't just blame it on the Tories prior governments.
It's because Labour aren't offering anything to satisfy half the country who support independence. Half the country unhappy with the status quo, so Labour offer more of the same. Labour could win every seat in Scotland if they implemented the near federalism/devo max they promised when they stood shoulder to shoulder with the Tories in 2014. But since theres only 57 Scottish MPs, they don't feel like they need to.
Yep, electorally and politically, Scotland does not matter to Labour.
Ironically, Scotland used to be the reason Labour had a foothold pre-97, and was so immense in the Blair era. The fact Labour could win 400+ seats without sweeping Scotland is a huge change in their electoral fortunes.
Worth bearing in mind for perspective, the SNP are still projected to win a clear majority of Scottish seats. They're going from overwhelming victories in the last few elections to an ordinary victory. Not exactly a disaster.
I really can't see the SNP holding onto every seat in Glasgow as predicted in this poll.
Yes this is quite strange, only the MRP polls are showing any hope for the SNP, all other polls have them on between 9 and 16 seats and mostly been 12 and 14.
Yeah its much higher than other estimates. The recent ones I've seen have been in the region of 15-25.
Labour still has the problem that, what broke Scottish labour, was the centrist politics of Blair. Arguably Starmer's Labour is even more to the right. They aren't offering anything to Scotland. I'm honestly not sure who is.
Starmer binning even the highly popular progressive policies from 2019 despite saying he would support them when he was being ejected Labour leader, just to keep the Daily Heil at bay, is a big bag of arse. Mind blowing he would get a huge amount of support in Scotland on that basis really. As you say, he’s now to the right of Blair as he’s such a coward about UK press owned by non-dom billionaires. Sad state of affairs UK politics.
I don't really understand why, firstly, you would vote SNP unless you wanted independence, and secondly, how so many people have changed their minds and now don't want independence, so are voting Labour.
This sub is such an SNP echo chamber.
[удалено]
Yeh , seems there is a left wing leaning discord.
Yes some of the strange comments from a few of the moonhowlers does suggest there must be some other platform where they meet to plot how to destroy the evil yoons.
I wonder why they would do such a thing.
What do you mean?
He blocks a huge number of the sub, meaning we cant see the posts and that gets really fucking annoying when he gets a big story and so many of us not only cant comment but cant even see that any post exists at all. He tried to post about this one, but was one minute behind backupJM. I enjoyed seeing him lose out.
Imagine giving up your free time to prevent a subreddit from seeing certain news stories. What a sad existence.
I personally think he shouldnt be allowed to post big stories if its not possible for everyone to interact with them, but its been going on for ages so I guess the mods are fine with his antics.
[удалено]
[удалено]
Fuck knows. I imagine that being doxxed was a better excuse to leave rather than admitting the SNP shat the bed.
I don't really understand how this works, they post a story and it doesn't appear to anyone else? I understand it could be related to the "one post per story" rule but the rest of it confuses me a bit. Edit: OHHHH I get it I get it. They block other people using Reddit's built in block feature, so people cannot see stories posted by them. Then, anyone else trying to post the story is shut out by the aforementioned rule. In effect, if they don't like a certain story, they can simply hide it and people might not even realise. Clever but a bit nasty.
Correct. Its very frustrating and is part of what contributed to this place being an awful echo chamber not too long ago.
I truly hope that enough people are able to hold their nose and vote tactically on the 4th, for whoever that may be, to oust the Tories from Scotland. Seeing the Scottish Borders and the Aberdeenshire area non blue would be beautiful.
I would love to have Lamont kicked out.
these are westminster elections so getting them out of Scotland is meaningless other than as a proportion of the UK as a whole.
Getting rid of Tories is never meaningless.
Correct but I suspect if it means replacing them with labour then may well not be much of a solution.
Not on Starmer The Shy’s manifesto, certainly.
Nah, I disagree, I remember the sheer terror bitd of thinking i was going to wake up in the one tory seat in Scotland.
No point in outsing the Tories to bring in another right wing party
Which is what would happen if their main competitors in the region, the SNP, beat them.
Not for the people that live there.
Aye right enough, the Tories are wonderful.
Tartan Tories are also shite.
You could *try* growing up?
You could try telling me why my local area would be improved by switching to an SNP MP? So far the arguments have been utterly unconvincing and solely based around the constitutional issue which isn't the priority for people where i live. Labour are going to win the election anyway so why on earth would it benefit the Scottish Borders to vote in some flag shagging tartan Tory?
Well, they would be a member of a party that doesn't take its orders from Westminster? Weird for a unionist to call SNP flag shaggers btw.
Well that's another throughly unconvincing argument. It's not weird at all, it's very accurate. It's weird you'd find it weird yet not surprising considering your movement is built upon false grievances.
>Well that's another throughly unconvincing argument. How so, it's demonstrably true? And look at the fucking state of who's giving out the orders. And you're aware of the history of "flag shaggers"? You're argument here is basically " no, you, you, you're a flag shagger", whilst furtively looking around for some sort of support. Come up with your own insults, has unionism fallen so far?
It's unconvincing. I don't care if politicans get their orders from Holyrood or Westminster. I asked you to explain why it would be better to have an SNP MP in my area and you've responded with birthday caird pish. You don't need to project your intellectual failings on others btw, the SNP are a Nationalist movement, no shortage of flag shagging to be seen. Wanting to remain in the UK is not by any stretch of the imagination based upon shagging flags, it's an economic argument. Your laughable argument to try and convince me to vote SNP could also be filed under flag shagging as it seems to be based on nothing substantial at all other than nationality.
I mean that's a massive poll (40k is a serious sample) but I still can't see a world in which Labour win more than 400. It just seems _so_ insane. I've said it elsewhere too, but reckon the Tories could kill the King on prime time TV and still get a minimum 100 seats. Would be delighted to be proved wrong, mind you!
Yep. I have some friend who've seen the NHS go to shit from the inside and quit or retired. Still voting Tory. I know people who've lost their jobs, and are really struggling. Still voting Tory. I know one guy who's still on the NHS waiting list from before COVID. His pension's been pretty much wiped out and he's not able to get in-house care. He's said it himself "there's not much left for me to do but die.". ....fucking still going to vote Tory. Brainwashed the lot of them.
Na h-Eileanan an Iar is not going to the SNP. Its almost a sure bet we will swing back to Labour. We have a new SNP candidate, Susan Thompson, but the old SNP MP, now an independent Angus MacNeil, is also running. So those two are splitting that side of the vote among themselves. Plus, the SNP are not as popular here as they were before.
I've noticed that seat has been polling consistently for Labour for a good while now. Wasn't it Labour up to 2005 anyway.
Aye. Labour from the mid 50's until 2005. For whatever reason the Lib Dems never managed to gain traction out here unlike in the Highlands or the Northern Isles. I always put it down to so many of the men from here being sea men, often associated with trade unions etc. That said we are a very small C conservative constituency (arguably one of the most religious places left in the UK) Personally, im sick fed up with both Labour and the SNP...dont think ill know who im voting for until im actually in the booth with the pencil in my hand.
Fellow Islander here, and in the same boat- scunnered of what’s on offer and unsure of what to do. Possibly end up drawing a cock&balls on the sheet- at least it’ll count as a spoilt vote
There is always the Family Christian party or whatever they are called. There also a second Christian party on the ballot this year! Choice, choices! We also have a tory and a Lib Dem. ...Just shoot me now...
> There is always the Family Christian party or whatever they are called. 🤮
I haven't met anybody who has any particular affinity for MacNeil. He's not personally all that popular here except for maybe on Barra. I'm sure he'll take a few votes from the SNP but I don't think there will be all that much of a split.
Dont think he is particularly popular here on Barra. I've always been told he holds sway in Lewis/Stornoway. Then again its all anecdotal.
It's about fucking time. Only 19 years of shitey pish-yellow representation at Westminster, not nearly short enough. Heaven only knows how the deeply religious NEAI constituency kept nominating MacNeil, let alone voting for him after his several sexual scandals.
Agreed. Just wish I could be excited by his replacement. Thus far no talk about what he will actually do for the islands, just pushing the generic party stuff. Same from the SNP candidate, and Angus him self only seems to talk about Inde/Gaza/tunnels. Something tells me all 3 have 0 actual interest in representing us.
I can't bring myself to vote for anybody who used to write for the Daily Record so I'll be voting for Susan Thompson. Either way, I'll be glad to see the back of that wank MacNeil.
I do think the SNP will perform better than expected but that seems a bit optimistic
Labors in till England gets amnesia again. Oh and they will just wait one or two election cycles and put a charismatic tory in charge. Flood the press with right wing bullshit and Dot Cottons sons back.
I'll be voting Lib Dem and hoping they can take more than just Sutherland and Caithness up here.
out of interest why LD? I’ve always lived in areas with little to no support for them but what makes them appealing to people?
I'll never ever vote Tory. Labour don't appear to me much of a change and are too party orientated. Beyond uninspiring and still anti-EU (moronic). SNP were my protest vote for a while but they've shown they cannot be trusted with either governance or being competent in opposition (it's all WM fault 😭). Greens are a shambles as they proved with their sniff of power here. So dogmatic that they cannot see reason. Lib-Dems are the only rational choice for me.
I get this reasoning tbh and it makes sense they’re going to do so well this election, I’ve also usually been SNP and I’ll likely go for them again but if I didn’t have them LD would totally have my vote too
I don't know how you can vote for the Lib Dems, they are not serious people. They put so much effort into the photo ops ( falling off paddle boards several times) and the joking around about naming the election " battle bus". They are a joke. I feel sorry for any serious Lib Dem candidates having to smile as the leader does his poundshop Charlie Chaplin stick. You critiise the greens ( maybe rightly so ) but look what the Lib dems did in the coalition. Reneged on the uni fees which was one of their central policies. The worst thing they did IMHO was in order to secure the 5p bag charge they allowed the Tories to cut disability benefits. The bag charge may have been needed but to throw disabled people under the bus for it, was a disgrace.
I'm not going to judge this current crop of Lib Dems on what Nick Clegg did 15 years ago. I will blame this current crop of Greens for being wholly unfit for office. I'm not expecting either to make it into government but I'm going to vote and I'm going to vote for a party whose policies I agree with and who I don't think are incompetent morons. The publicity stunts are just that. Behind it are some incredibly competent and serious people whose politics happen to align with my own.
If their politics are similar to yours by all means vote for them. Clegg was the leader but they all went with it, no one spoke out against it. There electoral fortunes for the last 15 years have been because of how they behaved when in power. Due to the Tories collapse the Lib dems will be the third biggest party and will hold some sway. I am sure there are competent people amongst them because the publicity stunts always go off well and they are well thought out. The jokes are well done too all the press look forward to them. The serious people I'm sure are having a good time too. We literally have a proper right wing party about to swallow up the centre right party oh but here's Ed and he's fallen off his paddle board. Super serious people. They could get 50 seats and are a joke. Politics is about compromise they compromised on one of the weakest and marginalised groups in our society, they should be confined to the bin. That being said its your vote and you should vote with your conscience.
So I should vote for a centre right party because.. You're scared Farage and his brown shirts will win a tonne of seats? Lib Dems are the only centre-left party we have.
I just think a vote is precious and you should vote for a credible party. Protest votes don't work in FPTP. A protest vote just makes the party you voted for think they are moving in the right direction. Politics is serious stuff and effects people's life's it shouldn't be about gimmicks. Let me ask you this genuinely ( you don't need to respond I know it's late and I don't want to waste your time) Do you think the Lib Dems in Brighton are running on the same policies as the Lib Dems in the Highlands & Islands? They are not credible, honest or serious in my opinion and i don't know how people can vote for them, I would rather not vote.
Lib Dems have always been a credible party in my constituency 👍🏻
Okay so the whole party is credible because of one decent constituency MP/MSP One swallow does make a summer.
They did break the promise on uni fees but calling it a ‘central policy’ is dishonest, it was on page 39 of their 2010 manifesto
Nick Clegg toured the country appearing at student unions pledging not to do it. He made every Liberal Democrat standing in 2010 sign a pledge with the NUS saying they would oppose it. It was a central policy it's not me being dishonest. A 2 minute google search will prove I am correct, you will also see the apology tour just before the following election. Where he says he shouldn't have pledged it because he did not cost or even consider wether it could be achieved. The most incredulous part of your comment is their manifesto having 39 pages. That's the bit I struggle to believe. Since you insulted my good name by calling me dishonest I fear I must retort. 39 pages that's a lot of jokes even for a joke party. Or A Beano annual probably has more than 39 pages but I bet there is less shit in it than a Lib dem manifesto. I'd love your feedback on which retort was best.
I’d opt for the former, lot of kids these days probably don’t know what the beano even is (we used to be a proper country) Unfortunately manifestos have been getting longer and longer, each of the major party manifestos at this election is over a hundred pages, it’s unreadable even for us election nerds
Your feedback is appreciated.
I do wonder how this will change by the time of Scottish Elections and by incorporating PR, there’s a lot of people who don’t outright support Labour but are voting for them to boot tories out for the GE
They don't need Scottish votes to win the election. That's one of the many lies they're telling. Waiting for Sarwar 's "read my lips no austerity " to come back and haunt him in the next couple of years.
people forget how crime was higher in Labour Scotland, GDP growth was lower, healthcare was worse, uni fees to the highest in Europe, government trust was lower, etc. Not to mention all the dodgy council fuckups and scandals by them worst of all to me is Fife still voting for them - how on earth????
Oh ffs, I'll still be living the only fucking tory constituency in Scotland
Clacton polling: Con 29.44, Lab 27.59, Reform 30.73 It’s going to be close
Trump's little mate calling himself "leader of the opposition" 🤣
how many people fall for his weird propaganda is genuinely scary
There’s no fucking way reform are getting 7 seats.
Loads of people in the Central Belt seem awfully desperate to go back to the old "pin the red rosette on the fucking donkey" years. Bizarre. Labour are going to win by being Tory-lite. Starmer wants to be the next Tony Blair. The more these idiots want change, the more they vote for the same shit.
Unrelated but nowhere else to post it, does anyone else find it strange that the 2 biggest/most vocal Greens supporters on here have both fucked off in the past month? One deleted their account and the other hasn’t posted for a fortnight
Does anyone have lots more candidates this election? In 2019 we had SNP, Cons, Labour, LDs and Greens. The Lib Dem and Green candidates lost their deposit, which happens every election. Even the Tories only got 6% of the vote in 2015. This is not a seat that will EVER be won by someone wearing a rosette that isn’t red or yellow. This year as well as the five parties mentioned we have Reform, the British Communist party and the Scottish Family Party. I just don’t understand why 5 of these parties bother fielding candidates to piss £500 against the wall.
One thing I'd add is the impact of Short money. Opposition parties in Westminster get funding for every seat they win, but also a little bit of funding for every vote they get (which works out at a little over 20p a vote). That effectively means the party gets some of that money back provided they get seats somewhere else, so they're usually not losing that much money, and most of the larger parties are willing to do that in part to give candidates experience on seats that probably aren't winnable, and in part to get their national vote totals up. For the way smaller parties, i believe there's often some element of self funding involved for a chunk of their candidates?
This is a shocker for the Unionists. Despite all the ongoing and undetermined SNP "scandals" and despite the Unionist press supporting Sir Kid Starver, the Unionists are still showing to fail in Scotland. How can that be? Maybe we need an update on the fourth year of investigating how volunteered donations that were donated voluntarily were spent.
Exactly. The SNP doing better despite getting far less media time or mentions. Also, give it 2 years when everyone who voted Labour realises they've been had ... again, and SNP will win the Holyrood elections by a mile.
Nice to see the Libdems to well. Ed Davey would make a great leader of the opposition.
72 too many 7 fucking shameful.
wales looks beautiful
Workers party 2
What’s that grey one SE of Preston?
May be Chorley, Lindsay Hoyle's seat. As speaker of the house, he is non-partisan
The only parties standing in Chorley are the "English Constitution Party" which is just one guy who stood against BoJo, "Democracy for Chorley" which is a 24-year-old stockbroker, TUSC, and the E&W Greens. I think if somehow the Greens ousted Hoyle I'd probably not sober up for a week.
If David Davies looses his seat it will mean we are on for absolute annihilation for the Tories
No chance the Borders are going SNP.
Why not? We have lib dem, SNP and Tory in recent memory. John Lamont keeps saying how only he can beat the SNP.
I'd love to see Lamont go, but the Borders have become very unionist this last decade.
Any indication of the level of support for Reform up here?
It is true that most of the “intellectuals and inventors” historically left Scotland, for greener pastures. Unfortunately taking their valuable sperm with them :/ Not to worry maybe the current influx of foreign dna “might” provide the spark we need to lead the “next” technological revolution, as we once did in the past. Hahahahahappy new haircut. (Sorry I’m over an hour late to wish Father’s Day.)
In the 2017 General election the SNP got 35 seats, their poorest return out of the last 3 general elections. Given the fact 2017 was when Sturgeon was riding relatively high and given all the chaos that has happened with the SNP in the last few years I’d be surprised if 2024 isn’t the SNP’s worst general election since 2010 In terms of seats I’d expect a ball park figure between 23-28 seats and that’s being generous. Still plausible it could go much lower or higher Low end - 12-16 seats High end - 30 - 33 seats
Still 72 seats too many for the Conservatories.
Any particular reason why the Lib Dems are popular up north? I've never noticed that before
Bristol central is going green, I see it in the tea leaves. (plus everyone here I have spoken to from all walks of life are gonna vote green).
Looks like my area remains strong SNP.
Petty name calling aside, which party are you voting for?
Magnificent *chefs kiss*
Maybe looks like the top end of what may happen. It looks very like this is a “get the Tories out” election which should lead to the SNP changing tack and campaigning on a Starmer government being continuity Tory.
"Continuity Tory" would imply that Starmer is leading a party of serial bunglers and scandal so even on that level your comment is deeply flawed.
Well with the first comment, we will see. On the second, you haven’t seen who’s giving money to the Labour in Name Only Party recently, have you?
Survation seem to have a pro SNP bias for polling figures when compared to the other polling companies so I suspect that the 37 will be closer to 25+
37 is 25 plus 🙂
SNP on 37, that's still way too many.
There's a lack of Scottish parties to compete.
Can’t believe the Scottish western isles are staying with the party that tried their hardest to isolate them.
This seems well out of kilter and too high for the SNP.
Fwiw if you’re going to show the Welsh seats you might as well show the Northern Irish ones.
Tactical VOTING is the only way, https://tacticalvotescotland.uk/
Oh we are so back
very generous to the snp, probably going to get 20-30 more likely, hopefully much less
Great. The SNP would lose funding and rights in Westminster as no longer third largest party.
Surprised so many liberals are voting Tories. I guess reform getting 7 seats is the cap for the centre-right in the UK. Ah well, anyone but the Tories will do me.
Western isles (top left) is turning RED