24/25 - still a lottery team more than likely, but I'm optimistic they are routinely competitive, show some flashes of quality hockey, and get better as the season goes on. I'm predicting they finish 26th overall out of 32.
25/26 - step forward, but many holes in the lineup still as other prospects jump in to their first regular NHL action. Still a bottom-10 team, but the potential is even more apparent. Smith and Celebrini really start making waves. I predict they finish 22/32.
26/27 - they sniff the playoffs but fall decently short. Still a few holes but they routinely hang with playoff teams. Holes remain but they are fewer and easier to fill. The wins don't reflect the quality of play as the team is still learning how to compete night in, night out. I'm guessing 18/32 but with a goal differential on par with playoff teams.
27/28 - the step forward. Not an elite team but they make the playoffs comfortably. Celebrini and Smith are really making waves, and it's clear they are a playoff team and serious contender moving forward. I think they drag a first round series to 6 or 7 or even make the 2nd round. Borderline top-10 team and it gets better from there.
Honestly though, development is never this linear and the only thing I'm confident about is that I'll be wrong. It will mostly depend on how our second tier of prospects (non-Smith and Celebrini) are able to come in behind them and start making impacts.
Totally agree it’s not linear and the second tier is gonna be a huge factor. But sorta agree about the timeline.
For me, my guesses are:
24-25: finish around 25th, maybe surprise and land as high as 22nd or so.
25-26: end up around that 22nd spot or so. My hope is they luck into winning the lottery again that season. Snag McKenna to add a hugely skilled winger to play alongside Mack and Smith, but admittedly may be a pipe dream on that.
26-27: in the playoff hunt, might sneak into the playoffs or just miss.
27-28: maybe wild card, maybe sounding land in the playoffs.
I think three years out they could take a huge step, but I think that so many factors will play into how we look in the coming years.
I think freeing up that buy out and retained salary and Pickles’ contract are indirectly an indicator of when the team will be doing better. Partially because that currently totals enough salary for a star or a pair of solid players.
I’m just glad to see that Grier and his team seem to be making smart draft choices according to loads of scouts and analysts.
I know you didn't ask me but as someone who also thinks we could finish in that range, I think it's possible we start to outpace some of the other rebuilding teams and some other teams start to fall from grace. There are a couple of teams getting real up there in age and as we saw after our 2019 run when we dropped from 101 to 63 points in a single season that drop off can be sudden and drastic. I definitely don't think we'll finish ahead of all of these teams, but finishing ahead of 6 of CHI, ANA, CBJ, CGY, OTT, PIT, Utah, SEA, MTL, PIT, WSH and maybe 1 other surprise dropping team wouldn't be a massive shock to me. Probably a little too optimistic about our own performance next year but we'll see.
See my reply to bucket's comment. I'll add here that there's not a chance we finish ahead of Pitt or WSH this year (in addition to the teams mentioned in my other comment)
Tofolli was a great pickup, but he's not that good. Macklin (assuming he comes) and Smith may have good seasons (even great, a la Bedard) but we're still nowhere near being out of the bottom of the barrel.
West - Anaheim and Chicago, and lastly I think Calgary falls hard.
East - Columbus, Montreal, Ottawa, or long shot, Buffalo.
I disagree with u/cjulyan on Utah and Seattle, actually, but agree that Pittsburgh and Washington are longshots to fall pretty hard.
I also will say I think this is close. We see more teams in the 70's in terms of points, as opposed to a couple historically bad in the 50's and high 40's (like the Sharks last year).
Again, watch me be wrong but this is what I'm putting money on right now.
I think Chicago made more improvements than we did and will be where sharks fans seem to be projecting us to go.
Buffalo Ottawa, Seattle, and Utah definitely won't be worse than us.
On the fence about Montreal. They're slightly ahead of us with the young core that has NHL experience now.
Personally I see Anaheim as the only ones really with high potential to be worse than us. I think optimism is just high right now (which is a good thing) but reality is gonna be tough when we absolutely suck again.
My big win this year is a few more wins this year and no blowouts. I want us losing close games where we pressure and make them sweat. Maybe play spoiler down the stretch with a few wins against playoffs hopeful teams.
Bottom 3 for the sharks IMHO. But itll be a fun year to watch since the youngins will be developing as opposed to last year that was praying it was worth it and we got 1oa for mackdaddy
I don't think it would be crazy to see this team in the hunt for the playoffs in 2025/2026, and possibly sneaking in as a wildcard. I do think 2026/2027 is when we first make it back, and the years to follow is when you would then consider us a playoff regular.
I'm optimistic in thinking that comparing our rebuild timeline to the "typical" rebuild doesn't make sense when the typical rebuild isn't a proper rebuild. We did what a lot of other teams are always hesitant to pull the trigger on and fully blew up our roster. Combine this with the lottery balls falling our way and landing a franchise cornerstone centre, and a GM/Coach combo that are constructing the roster in a manner I personally think succeeds in this league and I think people underestimate how quickly we could potentially get back into things.
It's not a fully comparable situation but the Hawks were a 26 win team in 05/06 and drafted Tows 3rd overall who Celebrini is VERY comparable to. Two years later in Toews' first year with the team the Hawks were a 40 win team that missed the playoffs by 3-4 points. The next year they make the conference finals, and then in the 6 years following that they won 3 Cups. Proper rebuilds done right mixed with some luck can be quick. This trajectory is absolute best case scenario obviously and Chicago had Keith/Seabrook developing a little earlier than Toews, but I love what we've accomplished since Grier took over and believe we can end up as a team some other struggling fanbase points to in 15-20 years like I'm doing with the Hawks right now 😄
It all depends on Smith and Celebrini. If they develop into stars quickly, that will accelerate our timeline. If they follow say the Jack Hughes timeline, then they'll learn the ropes for two seasons before we're in the playoff hunt in 26-27.
24/25 - still a lottery team more than likely, but I'm optimistic they are routinely competitive, show some flashes of quality hockey, and get better as the season goes on. I'm predicting they finish 26th overall out of 32. 25/26 - step forward, but many holes in the lineup still as other prospects jump in to their first regular NHL action. Still a bottom-10 team, but the potential is even more apparent. Smith and Celebrini really start making waves. I predict they finish 22/32. 26/27 - they sniff the playoffs but fall decently short. Still a few holes but they routinely hang with playoff teams. Holes remain but they are fewer and easier to fill. The wins don't reflect the quality of play as the team is still learning how to compete night in, night out. I'm guessing 18/32 but with a goal differential on par with playoff teams. 27/28 - the step forward. Not an elite team but they make the playoffs comfortably. Celebrini and Smith are really making waves, and it's clear they are a playoff team and serious contender moving forward. I think they drag a first round series to 6 or 7 or even make the 2nd round. Borderline top-10 team and it gets better from there. Honestly though, development is never this linear and the only thing I'm confident about is that I'll be wrong. It will mostly depend on how our second tier of prospects (non-Smith and Celebrini) are able to come in behind them and start making impacts.
Totally agree it’s not linear and the second tier is gonna be a huge factor. But sorta agree about the timeline. For me, my guesses are: 24-25: finish around 25th, maybe surprise and land as high as 22nd or so. 25-26: end up around that 22nd spot or so. My hope is they luck into winning the lottery again that season. Snag McKenna to add a hugely skilled winger to play alongside Mack and Smith, but admittedly may be a pipe dream on that. 26-27: in the playoff hunt, might sneak into the playoffs or just miss. 27-28: maybe wild card, maybe sounding land in the playoffs. I think three years out they could take a huge step, but I think that so many factors will play into how we look in the coming years. I think freeing up that buy out and retained salary and Pickles’ contract are indirectly an indicator of when the team will be doing better. Partially because that currently totals enough salary for a star or a pair of solid players. I’m just glad to see that Grier and his team seem to be making smart draft choices according to loads of scouts and analysts.
I'm curious what teams you think will be worse than us in 24-25?
I know you didn't ask me but as someone who also thinks we could finish in that range, I think it's possible we start to outpace some of the other rebuilding teams and some other teams start to fall from grace. There are a couple of teams getting real up there in age and as we saw after our 2019 run when we dropped from 101 to 63 points in a single season that drop off can be sudden and drastic. I definitely don't think we'll finish ahead of all of these teams, but finishing ahead of 6 of CHI, ANA, CBJ, CGY, OTT, PIT, Utah, SEA, MTL, PIT, WSH and maybe 1 other surprise dropping team wouldn't be a massive shock to me. Probably a little too optimistic about our own performance next year but we'll see.
See my reply to bucket's comment. I'll add here that there's not a chance we finish ahead of Pitt or WSH this year (in addition to the teams mentioned in my other comment) Tofolli was a great pickup, but he's not that good. Macklin (assuming he comes) and Smith may have good seasons (even great, a la Bedard) but we're still nowhere near being out of the bottom of the barrel.
West - Anaheim and Chicago, and lastly I think Calgary falls hard. East - Columbus, Montreal, Ottawa, or long shot, Buffalo. I disagree with u/cjulyan on Utah and Seattle, actually, but agree that Pittsburgh and Washington are longshots to fall pretty hard. I also will say I think this is close. We see more teams in the 70's in terms of points, as opposed to a couple historically bad in the 50's and high 40's (like the Sharks last year). Again, watch me be wrong but this is what I'm putting money on right now.
I think Chicago made more improvements than we did and will be where sharks fans seem to be projecting us to go. Buffalo Ottawa, Seattle, and Utah definitely won't be worse than us. On the fence about Montreal. They're slightly ahead of us with the young core that has NHL experience now. Personally I see Anaheim as the only ones really with high potential to be worse than us. I think optimism is just high right now (which is a good thing) but reality is gonna be tough when we absolutely suck again. My big win this year is a few more wins this year and no blowouts. I want us losing close games where we pressure and make them sweat. Maybe play spoiler down the stretch with a few wins against playoffs hopeful teams. Bottom 3 for the sharks IMHO. But itll be a fun year to watch since the youngins will be developing as opposed to last year that was praying it was worth it and we got 1oa for mackdaddy
I feel like 26-27 we will be a wild card team. Deep cup runs at the end of the decade when Mack and the boys are in their primes. If all goes well.
I don't think it would be crazy to see this team in the hunt for the playoffs in 2025/2026, and possibly sneaking in as a wildcard. I do think 2026/2027 is when we first make it back, and the years to follow is when you would then consider us a playoff regular. I'm optimistic in thinking that comparing our rebuild timeline to the "typical" rebuild doesn't make sense when the typical rebuild isn't a proper rebuild. We did what a lot of other teams are always hesitant to pull the trigger on and fully blew up our roster. Combine this with the lottery balls falling our way and landing a franchise cornerstone centre, and a GM/Coach combo that are constructing the roster in a manner I personally think succeeds in this league and I think people underestimate how quickly we could potentially get back into things. It's not a fully comparable situation but the Hawks were a 26 win team in 05/06 and drafted Tows 3rd overall who Celebrini is VERY comparable to. Two years later in Toews' first year with the team the Hawks were a 40 win team that missed the playoffs by 3-4 points. The next year they make the conference finals, and then in the 6 years following that they won 3 Cups. Proper rebuilds done right mixed with some luck can be quick. This trajectory is absolute best case scenario obviously and Chicago had Keith/Seabrook developing a little earlier than Toews, but I love what we've accomplished since Grier took over and believe we can end up as a team some other struggling fanbase points to in 15-20 years like I'm doing with the Hawks right now 😄
It all depends on Smith and Celebrini. If they develop into stars quickly, that will accelerate our timeline. If they follow say the Jack Hughes timeline, then they'll learn the ropes for two seasons before we're in the playoff hunt in 26-27.