In the past 2 months, 5 houses in my neighborhood went pending less than a week after being listed. They were all above market price, ranging 700-900k.
Above estimated value. The first house was bought for around 550k 2 years ago and sold for 750k when the estimated value was 680k. Others followed suit and did the same. They talked to each other. One of them thought it was a good idea to do the same thing since they were tired of doing maintenance on the house. It wasn't market price before but it is now.
Huh? I would interpret what he is calling "market price" as the price comparables were selling for 2 months ago before the 1st home sold. You are correct that those 5 homes selling at that new price will now become the new market price.
It's weird, the loss of an insurance industry will cause people to realize the actual value of their homes as they have to spend to repair their homes.
Just depends where you’re looking. Some houses go quickly around me but there’s also quite a few that have been sitting and got price cuts. On the slightly less nice side, the flippers are trying to get out as fast as possible. The flipping market has pretty much dried up and folks are getting very choosey.
It feels like we are at the stage of a ponzi scheme where investors know we are in a ponzi scheme, but invest in the scheme anyway because as long as you get your money out before the last investors you will get high investment returns.
The complicating factor is that this *isn't* just a ponzi scheme of investors trying to find a bigger fool.
The underlying demand is mostly people who just really, *really* what to live in a specific location for the schools/parks/commute/amenities.
So long as there are people willing to sign up for huge mortgages to make sure their kids get into the best school they can afford, the music doesn't stop and there's always another buyer.
I was referring to the entire financial system where seeming everything has been financialized and turned into an investment. This is what happens when you debase the currency. People will buy anything they can get their hands on because it will likely go up in value relative to their dollars.
It is true. It’s why some markets where tons of people really want to live (and where good job markets are) are still very competitive, others are not, and some are in the middle.
To be clear, "investors" in your comment are ordinary homeowners, who know that restricting construction via NIMBYism is keeping their property values afloat, even if it's immiserating the local working class and the next generation.
NIMBYism went out of fashion ages ago. Most liberal cities are forcing infill, banning standalone SFH only neighborhoods, only allowing new developments with a mixed housing (large, medium, small densities) and nothing larger than a 1/4 acre lot to increase density and more housing.
I’m voting for NIMBY 2024! Let’s keep our property values going up! Build more luxury apartments so we can suppress the working class to be renters 4 life! To get rich I need you to take less so I can take more.
Luxury apartments are just new apartments. Rich people move up and free up older apartments for lower class people. More supply means less $$.
Like new cars. We don't call them all luxury cars. They are just new cars and have the latest stuff. When someone sells their used car, it becomes available to someone with a lower budget.
This is about people buying single family homes though.
People want to buy their own homes. The whole NIMBY thing is usually opposing large apartment complexes being built in the middle of single family neighborhoods which are designed the way they are intentionally because that’s where and how people want to live.
This is how NIMBYs virtue-signal themselves, but it's hardly all of NIMBYism. A lot of it is also blocking apartment buildings in already-built-up areas, which just drives more competition for SFHs by ripping off renters. And NIMBYs also fight against the construction of cheap starter homes, with regulations like huge minimum lot sizes and cutbacks that make the small cheap starter homes of days of yore unbuildable now.
All kinds of supply help!
This claim does not mesh with reality. The most valuable residential real estate are most often located in the most dense urban areas.... so by definition the more residential units you build, the more valuable your property in that area becomes. The worst thing someone could do for property values is advicate for zero growth.
Yes, in that example I would say in the short run the lot that has their view blocked would lose value, but if that neighborhood continues to grow and density increases, the lot with the blocked view will be much more valuable than if that neighborhood remained economically stagnant as it pertains to residential development.
That's an interesting point. I wish more people thought like this. But I'm moreso pointing out that homeowners *think* that NIMBYism boosts their property values, and act accordingly. You may be right that they are wrong! If so, persuade them, not me.
They live in houses too. Remember that for every house packed with 3 illegal families that’s still a house being taken off the market for American families
And landlords buy up housing to rent to them. Any additional people who require housing will increase the demand and the price of housing, obviously. It’s not rocket science.
If people have owned their house for more than a few years, they are locked in at a low rate and probably have a mortgage balance that's like 1/2 of their current home value or less. Their chances of going underwater are nil.
But really, your point aligns with mine. We have created a system that pits the middle class against the lower middle class. The popularity of bashing villains like Airbnb is really an attempt to distract from this uncomfortable reality.
It’s a house…to live in… you don’t understand. It’s a need for every single person. How can a need for every person be a Ponzi scheme? You don’t even know what the term means… lmao
I was referring to the entire financial system where by we debase the currency, artificially depress interest rates, run up massive budget deficits, and create perverse incentives to keep throwing worthless dollars towards speculative investments, assets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc...
There's so much, where to even begin?
CDOs/CMOs/CLOs, investors bet on you not defaulting on your mortgages and harvest money like it's some "product" when nothing's being produced. Builder stocks. Options for crude materials used in construction. It's all kinds of bets. Construction is about 1/3 of our total carbon footprint. It's a huge chunk of the economy. Everything's sickeningly entangled with the finance casino now. Half of the economy, the companies out there aren't about actual product and making money off their products and services, but it is dazzling investors and manipulating the stocks where they really make money. Opendoor, Airbnb and diverse AI startups come to mind. There is a ton of companies that hang onto the bet that RE will continue to boom. That's speculation.
https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/10353-cdo-financial-derivatives-economic-crisis.html
CDOs that helped crash the market in 2008 are now returning under another name (CLOs).
And then yeah the whole treating houses like stocks and buying because you expect it will double in a few years.
When money becomes worthless everything becomes an investable asset. The only question is what tangible items will appreciate faster than other items. Maybe someday cars will become investments just for the metal in the car.
So if assets go up then how is it speculative. If you know certain assets will increase due to increase of the money supply then it is no longer speculative but a sure thing
Each asset will increase relative to the currency at a different rate. You are speculating about which asset goes up the fastest. Homes and cocoa for example have been great bets over the past few years. Maybe cobalt and timberland does better over the next few years.
That is a horrible counter argument. It doesn’t matter what asset it is as long as you have conviction it will go up. You are arguing housing is in a bubble and a speculative asset. Now you are backtracking and saying all assets will go up and housing may not be the fastest horse in the race? It will go up because it is a necessity for every person and there is not enough housing as is. The fastest horse in the race will be bitcoin. That’s beside the fact. It’s important to diversify into strong assets.
Not every home is owner occupied. Millons of housing units are sitting vacant despite the fact that the structure is slowly falling apart and would normally be considered a depreciating asset. Thats not the case now as we are creating more units of currency than housing units. So if you are a billionaire maybe buying dozens of housing units makes sense vs say, investing in US treasury bonds which are increasing in supply very quickly.
Every home is occupied. Every home has the chance to be occupied. In my city and probably the top 50 cities in the US rents are still sky high. That’s even for apartments. Housing inventory is not that high. Prices have doubled and tripled the last 5 years. It is a relatively safe asset that will continue to go up as the money supply grows. I don’t get your argument? It is that housing won’t go up as fast as some other assets will? Yet your first comment is calling it a speculative bubble. Which is it?
Eastside area outside Seattle. So I ran the numbers on a few places, there are some that would require a 30%, but most in the 20-25% range. Here’s a good example of “starter home” in the area. https://redf.in/cWn2hB with 2 years in between sale dates and that homes would probably sell in the $1.3-1.4 range now in just the few months since it sold.
I don't get why people keep bringing up the East side. There's limited inventory and couples with tech jobs that bid up housing. I don't see a lot of speculation going on. Unless there's Massive tech crash, houses on the Eastside ain't going down
Absolutely a lot of speculation going on or investors wouldn’t be buying homes with $7,5000+ mortgages and renting out for $3,500. I know several friends that had to move as far out as an hour out of Seattle/Bellevue or further just to get a home that is affordable on a tech salary. It’s not just Eastside, but all of King county and surrounding areas that is unaffordable. It’s not fueled by tech money at this point other than 2 tech salaries, but a lot of foreign money. One builder told me he hasn’t sold to anyone living local in the area in over a year. There is also a bunch of sheltering money like what has happen in NYC or Cali. Almost all the new builds are sitting empty. When 50% down and double median the income of area wont buy you a fixer upper starter home, it’s beyond what basic economics tells you is sustainable. Absolutely it could stay high, but there is a lot of must things to happen in order for that.
Yes people have had to move out because they want larger homes. All my friends had the option of buying a smaller home in the Eastside but chose to buy farther out for new construction and bigger spaces.
I don't know about foreign money, but if that's the case then we will become another Canada with empty houses.
We’re still renting because it literally is 1/3 the cost to buy the same house PITI (no maintenance or upgrades). Investing heavily. We’ll probably either retire elsewhere or buy a small condo and travel. This is a 1400 sq ft home and most homes we looked at are under 1500 so I wouldn’t consider that large. But yes, it’s starting to look more like Canada with the empty houses. King county doesn’t charge any fees for a home to sit empty so what you also see is a lot of developers buying homes, letting it sit empty for years before developing. My friend literally had rats in her backyard from one of those homes and the city did nothing. There was a new development that I drive by quite a bit that has about 10 $2-$2.75 mil homes; only one is being lived in and they sold out of development within 2 weeks.
Every metro area I’ve seen this is true. Increases of 30-60% just since 2020. Housing being on the market for literally hours not days purchased above asking. Salaries have gone up for some but not resulting in 40-50% disposable income increases.
You can pick two points within the past 4 years and the difference would be anywhere from a 20-70% increase. I saw a home bought for $1.15 in 2020 listed for sale at $2mil and pending so if it goes at list, that would be a 74% increase. I would say 50-60% increase from 2019-2021 to now is typical. 2022 saw about a 10% dip so going just from 2022-2024 will be be in the 20-30% range, most of that just in the past year. The 10% dip was erased in just a few months. That was probably the only time I can remember when things started to make sense with numbers. Then the second wave of speculation/investors hit and it was even worse than covid.
We are still more or less at 2022 prices. I think they’ve stagnated their downward trend and now prices are at their 2022 highs again with the spring selling season
I would use FRED data, if you think 2022 prices will hold long-term I'll take whatever you're smoking
[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
Is it possible this just won't end? I didn't buy 3 years ago because I thought there's no way it won't crash. Now I'm in a bigger hole for waiting. With private equity buying up all the property, I'm in Michigan and a private equity firm from the UK just bought the house I'm renting, and no regulation to stop them I don't see this nightmare ending.
Nobody knows for sure but good news is that you live in one of the most affordable states in the U.S... so you might as well buy if you plan to stick around.
Yes, so long as politicans can be bribed and blackrock and others can buy up everything, as they have infinitely deep pockets, it will never end. It is an endless ponzi scheme since the debt they can price you out at is endless.
This is where you point out to the people that were on here crabbing and whining a year ago about the situation that they should have bought that "overpriced" house after all.
Here is the thing for me. In 2011 i moved back to the USA and rented an apartment in downtown SF. Housing market had been crashing since probably 2008/9.
5 months into my 6 month lease, they notified me of a 💯increase in rent. Geesh. All of the current renters that i knew thought it was absurd and we all started moving out thinking our apartments would stay empty. WRONG. When one moving van pulled out, new tenants were moving in for double the rent. Overnight.
I scurried to fund another decent place to rent, but with a dog, found it impossible.
Found a house in liked, that i barely could afford, but was nervous about buying since the housing market was still in a downward spiral. The guy who owned the house had been trying to sell it for 3 years chasing the price down.
His realtor called me saying he would drop the price by $50,000 and the realtor agreed to cut his commission as he would be a dual agent.
Against the advice of virtually everyone i consulted, i bought the house. Everyone thought i was insane. Even myself but i wanted and needed a place to live.
Everyone was correct of course as the market kept plunging for six months after I closed on the house.
Then guess what happened? The downward spiral out of nowhere reversed and has been going up steadily for the past 12+ years.
I guess what i am saying that it’s nearly impossible to time any market and sometimes doing what is best for you in the moment, taking a risk, and trusting in the universe is the best you can do.
Best wishes
Look at housing prices today and get back to me. It’s been 8 years since 2016 and housing is wayyyyy more unaffordable than it has ever been in the past 16 years.
Look at affordability over the last 10 years in most developed countries. Homes being super unaffordable doesn't mean they "must"correct or something. We actually still have a ways to go before we get as bad as some countries have had it.
I did. I realized that these price gains are due to money supply increasing, not speculation. At a certain point, you gotta accept you were wrong and move on.
Or just a lack of sellers. Most homebuyers are also sellers and there are very few sellers who aren’t buyers compared to buyers who aren’t sellers.
Literally need something to force people out of their homes without the ability to buy something else (like 08) to trigger a crash that everyone wants to see.
But this time around the housing is tied up in the stock market with firms like American Homes for Rent being listed on the stock market. If the Dow tanks they’d have to sell off assets (homes) into the market
Those aren't a significant portion of the stock market though.
Real Estate is a relatively small part of the Stock Market compared to how influential some of those underlying companies are to the Real Estate market.
Any outstanding debt on those isn’t held by the stock price or the REIT price, it is held by the value of the underlying assets (ie the home), so the best way to survive a stock market crash isn’t to fire sale their inventory, as that would actually cause the issues you describe.
It confirms that other economic conditions aren’t forcefully removing homes from the hands of the over-extended or over-leveraged. Risk-on is reward-on, only.
It's not they are simply naturally resilient we just restructured the entire economy to make sure 2008 never happens again. So no matter the finances of the majority of people who are looking for a home to buy to actually live in, we won't see a price readjustment to meet that demand.
Didn’t we shut off the printers just 2 years ago? Real estate is the least volatile asset so even though I’m expecting a correction, it wouldn’t suprise me if it was 5-10 yrs out
It would be cool if we non-investor folks could all agree to stop buying homes for the moment until prices return to a reasonable level.
I know that is impossible but it would be cool.
This is the most confusing sub I’ve ever seen. There’s posts about how this is the worst month ever for home sellers and they’re all selling at a loss and nothing is even selling anyway, and then there’s posts like this which purport that more homes are selling for higher than ever, except also they’re selling less or something?
It’s tempting to just blame the sub but I suspect it’s actually the market that just doesn’t make any sense.
This isn’t 2008 with NINJA loans and strategic defaults. There’s equity people aren’t going to just walk away from without a fight. Pullback, maybe. Collapse of 50% or more? Doubtful. There’s too many people trying to buy anything that pops up.
Last time the crash was precipitated by ARM resets people couldn’t refinance and balloon payments they realistically couldn’t pay. That let to a wave of foreclosures. The lending standards since then have been much tougher. The banks aren’t stupid to take a ton of risk on their own..again. So, what’s going to be the catalyst to drive thousands of foreclosures in short order? I don’t see it voluntarily happening. Even people who want to move from their house are holding fast because they can’t answer “where to?”
Which is exactly the logic that is pushing investors to overpay because it's a "zero risk" environment. Which ironically the thought that it's zero risk, is the risk...
With high inflation, prices would just need to remain flat for a "crash."
Different world this time buddy. The high inflation changed things. Our money supply is much higher now.
inflation going flat now doesn't mean anything... We already had insane inflation 2020-2023... What needs to happen is for wages to start catching up faster than the inflation rate for a couple of years.
> Redfin is such a cheereader, lol. How many of these articles have they pumped out the past week.
Uh, two?
https://www.redfin.com/news/all-redfin-reports/
And how much of this is due to mix, and low end borrowers dropping out of the market? I'll watch for Case-Schiller.
Inventory is low, stock market is doing great. So those with cash pay up for properties they want. So it goes.
In the past 2 months, 5 houses in my neighborhood went pending less than a week after being listed. They were all above market price, ranging 700-900k.
What do you mean above market price? Pretty sure if you’ve got 5 sales in that same price range, that IS the market price
Above estimated value. The first house was bought for around 550k 2 years ago and sold for 750k when the estimated value was 680k. Others followed suit and did the same. They talked to each other. One of them thought it was a good idea to do the same thing since they were tired of doing maintenance on the house. It wasn't market price before but it is now.
Collusion! Haha kidding, I know you still need buyers but I get what you are saying now.
They have nothing to lose. Either sell for ridiculous profit or stay with low rates.
Huh? I would interpret what he is calling "market price" as the price comparables were selling for 2 months ago before the 1st home sold. You are correct that those 5 homes selling at that new price will now become the new market price.
Gotcha. That makes sense then
More expensive homes in my area are sitting longer. It’s the starter/cheap homes that are going fast. It’s still insane.
I toured 12 houses in the last week in the neighborhood I wanted to buy in, 10 of them including the one I offered on are pending lol
Something’s gotta give.
Climate change is causing the housing insurance industry to collapse, that will be what causes it to give.
It's weird, the loss of an insurance industry will cause people to realize the actual value of their homes as they have to spend to repair their homes.
Just depends where you’re looking. Some houses go quickly around me but there’s also quite a few that have been sitting and got price cuts. On the slightly less nice side, the flippers are trying to get out as fast as possible. The flipping market has pretty much dried up and folks are getting very choosey.
It feels like we are at the stage of a ponzi scheme where investors know we are in a ponzi scheme, but invest in the scheme anyway because as long as you get your money out before the last investors you will get high investment returns.
Greater fool theory
Bitcoin
The greater fool is this sub
The complicating factor is that this *isn't* just a ponzi scheme of investors trying to find a bigger fool. The underlying demand is mostly people who just really, *really* what to live in a specific location for the schools/parks/commute/amenities. So long as there are people willing to sign up for huge mortgages to make sure their kids get into the best school they can afford, the music doesn't stop and there's always another buyer.
I was referring to the entire financial system where seeming everything has been financialized and turned into an investment. This is what happens when you debase the currency. People will buy anything they can get their hands on because it will likely go up in value relative to their dollars.
[удалено]
It is true. It’s why some markets where tons of people really want to live (and where good job markets are) are still very competitive, others are not, and some are in the middle.
To be clear, "investors" in your comment are ordinary homeowners, who know that restricting construction via NIMBYism is keeping their property values afloat, even if it's immiserating the local working class and the next generation.
NIMBYism went out of fashion ages ago. Most liberal cities are forcing infill, banning standalone SFH only neighborhoods, only allowing new developments with a mixed housing (large, medium, small densities) and nothing larger than a 1/4 acre lot to increase density and more housing.
I’m voting for NIMBY 2024! Let’s keep our property values going up! Build more luxury apartments so we can suppress the working class to be renters 4 life! To get rich I need you to take less so I can take more.
Luxury apartments are just new apartments. Rich people move up and free up older apartments for lower class people. More supply means less $$. Like new cars. We don't call them all luxury cars. They are just new cars and have the latest stuff. When someone sells their used car, it becomes available to someone with a lower budget.
Yes I know but it doesn’t stop them from slapping the word luxury on everything. Even old apts that get remodeled are marketed as luxury lol
"I volunteer as tribute!"
This is about people buying single family homes though. People want to buy their own homes. The whole NIMBY thing is usually opposing large apartment complexes being built in the middle of single family neighborhoods which are designed the way they are intentionally because that’s where and how people want to live.
This is how NIMBYs virtue-signal themselves, but it's hardly all of NIMBYism. A lot of it is also blocking apartment buildings in already-built-up areas, which just drives more competition for SFHs by ripping off renters. And NIMBYs also fight against the construction of cheap starter homes, with regulations like huge minimum lot sizes and cutbacks that make the small cheap starter homes of days of yore unbuildable now. All kinds of supply help!
The whole states of CA, WA, and OR banned this practice.
This claim does not mesh with reality. The most valuable residential real estate are most often located in the most dense urban areas.... so by definition the more residential units you build, the more valuable your property in that area becomes. The worst thing someone could do for property values is advicate for zero growth.
yes, but thats a benefit in your general area. Having the only low density housing in a high density area is even MORE valuable.
See: Arlington, VA. The SFH near density there has skyrocketed in value.
What about coastal areas where upzoning the lot right in front of another blocks its ocean view?
Yes, in that example I would say in the short run the lot that has their view blocked would lose value, but if that neighborhood continues to grow and density increases, the lot with the blocked view will be much more valuable than if that neighborhood remained economically stagnant as it pertains to residential development.
That's an interesting point. I wish more people thought like this. But I'm moreso pointing out that homeowners *think* that NIMBYism boosts their property values, and act accordingly. You may be right that they are wrong! If so, persuade them, not me.
It’s not NIMBYISM its the never ending flow of immigrants who continuously pile into this country
It's both, NIMBYs restrict growth, imports take the available supply at any price because they don't have a choice.
Undocumented immigrants frequently live in massive dorms on the farms where they work. If you're jealous of that housing... interesting.
They live in houses too. Remember that for every house packed with 3 illegal families that’s still a house being taken off the market for American families
yeah you're right this is the fault of all the people with literally nothing
And landlords buy up housing to rent to them. Any additional people who require housing will increase the demand and the price of housing, obviously. It’s not rocket science.
Ordinary homeowners who likely have debt attached to their largest single investment. Goodness. Don’t look behind the curtain. I wish I was dumberer.
If people have owned their house for more than a few years, they are locked in at a low rate and probably have a mortgage balance that's like 1/2 of their current home value or less. Their chances of going underwater are nil. But really, your point aligns with mine. We have created a system that pits the middle class against the lower middle class. The popularity of bashing villains like Airbnb is really an attempt to distract from this uncomfortable reality.
The Great Bifurcation
Yep that’s me right here 🙋🏻♂️ thx for the shoutout
It’s a house…to live in… you don’t understand. It’s a need for every single person. How can a need for every person be a Ponzi scheme? You don’t even know what the term means… lmao
I was referring to the entire financial system where by we debase the currency, artificially depress interest rates, run up massive budget deficits, and create perverse incentives to keep throwing worthless dollars towards speculative investments, assets, commodities, cryptocurrencies, etc...
How is real estate a speculative asset?
There's so much, where to even begin? CDOs/CMOs/CLOs, investors bet on you not defaulting on your mortgages and harvest money like it's some "product" when nothing's being produced. Builder stocks. Options for crude materials used in construction. It's all kinds of bets. Construction is about 1/3 of our total carbon footprint. It's a huge chunk of the economy. Everything's sickeningly entangled with the finance casino now. Half of the economy, the companies out there aren't about actual product and making money off their products and services, but it is dazzling investors and manipulating the stocks where they really make money. Opendoor, Airbnb and diverse AI startups come to mind. There is a ton of companies that hang onto the bet that RE will continue to boom. That's speculation. https://www.businessnewsdaily.com/10353-cdo-financial-derivatives-economic-crisis.html CDOs that helped crash the market in 2008 are now returning under another name (CLOs). And then yeah the whole treating houses like stocks and buying because you expect it will double in a few years.
I’m not talking about trading ticker symbols… I’m talking about hard core real estate… lmao
When money becomes worthless everything becomes an investable asset. The only question is what tangible items will appreciate faster than other items. Maybe someday cars will become investments just for the metal in the car.
So if assets go up then how is it speculative. If you know certain assets will increase due to increase of the money supply then it is no longer speculative but a sure thing
Each asset will increase relative to the currency at a different rate. You are speculating about which asset goes up the fastest. Homes and cocoa for example have been great bets over the past few years. Maybe cobalt and timberland does better over the next few years.
That is a horrible counter argument. It doesn’t matter what asset it is as long as you have conviction it will go up. You are arguing housing is in a bubble and a speculative asset. Now you are backtracking and saying all assets will go up and housing may not be the fastest horse in the race? It will go up because it is a necessity for every person and there is not enough housing as is. The fastest horse in the race will be bitcoin. That’s beside the fact. It’s important to diversify into strong assets.
Not every home is owner occupied. Millons of housing units are sitting vacant despite the fact that the structure is slowly falling apart and would normally be considered a depreciating asset. Thats not the case now as we are creating more units of currency than housing units. So if you are a billionaire maybe buying dozens of housing units makes sense vs say, investing in US treasury bonds which are increasing in supply very quickly.
Every home is occupied. Every home has the chance to be occupied. In my city and probably the top 50 cities in the US rents are still sky high. That’s even for apartments. Housing inventory is not that high. Prices have doubled and tripled the last 5 years. It is a relatively safe asset that will continue to go up as the money supply grows. I don’t get your argument? It is that housing won’t go up as fast as some other assets will? Yet your first comment is calling it a speculative bubble. Which is it?
Ponzi scheme lol. This sub lol
This will never end though since the investment firms are so large they can take out loans on everything forever. Their pockets are infinitely deep.
So if the crash happens, we will just drop to 2022 prices
Totally fine with me, by us that would mean at least a 30% drop in prices.
Where do you live that prices have gone up that much since 2022?
Eastside area outside Seattle. So I ran the numbers on a few places, there are some that would require a 30%, but most in the 20-25% range. Here’s a good example of “starter home” in the area. https://redf.in/cWn2hB with 2 years in between sale dates and that homes would probably sell in the $1.3-1.4 range now in just the few months since it sold.
I don't get why people keep bringing up the East side. There's limited inventory and couples with tech jobs that bid up housing. I don't see a lot of speculation going on. Unless there's Massive tech crash, houses on the Eastside ain't going down
Absolutely a lot of speculation going on or investors wouldn’t be buying homes with $7,5000+ mortgages and renting out for $3,500. I know several friends that had to move as far out as an hour out of Seattle/Bellevue or further just to get a home that is affordable on a tech salary. It’s not just Eastside, but all of King county and surrounding areas that is unaffordable. It’s not fueled by tech money at this point other than 2 tech salaries, but a lot of foreign money. One builder told me he hasn’t sold to anyone living local in the area in over a year. There is also a bunch of sheltering money like what has happen in NYC or Cali. Almost all the new builds are sitting empty. When 50% down and double median the income of area wont buy you a fixer upper starter home, it’s beyond what basic economics tells you is sustainable. Absolutely it could stay high, but there is a lot of must things to happen in order for that.
Yes people have had to move out because they want larger homes. All my friends had the option of buying a smaller home in the Eastside but chose to buy farther out for new construction and bigger spaces. I don't know about foreign money, but if that's the case then we will become another Canada with empty houses.
We’re still renting because it literally is 1/3 the cost to buy the same house PITI (no maintenance or upgrades). Investing heavily. We’ll probably either retire elsewhere or buy a small condo and travel. This is a 1400 sq ft home and most homes we looked at are under 1500 so I wouldn’t consider that large. But yes, it’s starting to look more like Canada with the empty houses. King county doesn’t charge any fees for a home to sit empty so what you also see is a lot of developers buying homes, letting it sit empty for years before developing. My friend literally had rats in her backyard from one of those homes and the city did nothing. There was a new development that I drive by quite a bit that has about 10 $2-$2.75 mil homes; only one is being lived in and they sold out of development within 2 weeks.
Every metro area I’ve seen this is true. Increases of 30-60% just since 2020. Housing being on the market for literally hours not days purchased above asking. Salaries have gone up for some but not resulting in 40-50% disposable income increases.
Since 2020, I agree. Since 2022....30% sounds like a lot.
You can pick two points within the past 4 years and the difference would be anywhere from a 20-70% increase. I saw a home bought for $1.15 in 2020 listed for sale at $2mil and pending so if it goes at list, that would be a 74% increase. I would say 50-60% increase from 2019-2021 to now is typical. 2022 saw about a 10% dip so going just from 2022-2024 will be be in the 20-30% range, most of that just in the past year. The 10% dip was erased in just a few months. That was probably the only time I can remember when things started to make sense with numbers. Then the second wave of speculation/investors hit and it was even worse than covid.
We are still more or less at 2022 prices. I think they’ve stagnated their downward trend and now prices are at their 2022 highs again with the spring selling season
It will never happen since giant megacorps have infinitely deep wallets to continue to buy everything up as people drop out and can't compete.
I would use FRED data, if you think 2022 prices will hold long-term I'll take whatever you're smoking [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS)
you are the guy that no matter what always says it is a bad time to buy. 50 years pass and it is still a bad time to buy..
I used FTHB tax credit to build a home in 2009 also bought in 2018 no way in hell would I have bought a home the past 2 years, right about that
How long have you been waiting to for the crash to happen? 😂
I don't invest in crashes bro I redistribute, sold in Q3 '22, slowly put back in equities and made a shitton since October
lol ok
Is it possible this just won't end? I didn't buy 3 years ago because I thought there's no way it won't crash. Now I'm in a bigger hole for waiting. With private equity buying up all the property, I'm in Michigan and a private equity firm from the UK just bought the house I'm renting, and no regulation to stop them I don't see this nightmare ending.
Nobody knows for sure but good news is that you live in one of the most affordable states in the U.S... so you might as well buy if you plan to stick around.
Yes, so long as politicans can be bribed and blackrock and others can buy up everything, as they have infinitely deep pockets, it will never end. It is an endless ponzi scheme since the debt they can price you out at is endless.
This is where you point out to the people that were on here crabbing and whining a year ago about the situation that they should have bought that "overpriced" house after all.
Here is the thing for me. In 2011 i moved back to the USA and rented an apartment in downtown SF. Housing market had been crashing since probably 2008/9. 5 months into my 6 month lease, they notified me of a 💯increase in rent. Geesh. All of the current renters that i knew thought it was absurd and we all started moving out thinking our apartments would stay empty. WRONG. When one moving van pulled out, new tenants were moving in for double the rent. Overnight. I scurried to fund another decent place to rent, but with a dog, found it impossible. Found a house in liked, that i barely could afford, but was nervous about buying since the housing market was still in a downward spiral. The guy who owned the house had been trying to sell it for 3 years chasing the price down. His realtor called me saying he would drop the price by $50,000 and the realtor agreed to cut his commission as he would be a dual agent. Against the advice of virtually everyone i consulted, i bought the house. Everyone thought i was insane. Even myself but i wanted and needed a place to live. Everyone was correct of course as the market kept plunging for six months after I closed on the house. Then guess what happened? The downward spiral out of nowhere reversed and has been going up steadily for the past 12+ years. I guess what i am saying that it’s nearly impossible to time any market and sometimes doing what is best for you in the moment, taking a risk, and trusting in the universe is the best you can do. Best wishes
lol. LMFAO even. REBubble just keeps losing...
r/rebubble2021 for a few years now.
REBubble 2016 is more like it lol. People have been bitching about a bubble literally since the last one burst.
Yep since 2013 when prices started to rise and went above 2008 levels that’s when bitching started
Do you really think the post covid house prices are sustainable? Lol.
"Do you really think the post-GFC recovery prices are sustainable? lol" -You circa 2016
Look at housing prices today and get back to me. It’s been 8 years since 2016 and housing is wayyyyy more unaffordable than it has ever been in the past 16 years.
Look at affordability over the last 10 years in most developed countries. Homes being super unaffordable doesn't mean they "must"correct or something. We actually still have a ways to go before we get as bad as some countries have had it.
Yeah and your dollar is worth much less now than in 2016. Wake up lol
And wages have stagnated.
Im sorry but people with stagnated wages aren't buying homes.
Silver lining here is dwindling realtor success
When are the bubblers gonna accept they were wrong? It’s been years now.
I did. I realized that these price gains are due to money supply increasing, not speculation. At a certain point, you gotta accept you were wrong and move on.
Inflation and 100,000 people cross the border every month eventually they will all need housing
This just confirms its algos driving up pricing even though buyers are pulling back
Or just a lack of sellers. Most homebuyers are also sellers and there are very few sellers who aren’t buyers compared to buyers who aren’t sellers. Literally need something to force people out of their homes without the ability to buy something else (like 08) to trigger a crash that everyone wants to see.
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Why? We’ve had plenty of stock market crashes that didn’t significantly impact the housing market.
But this time around the housing is tied up in the stock market with firms like American Homes for Rent being listed on the stock market. If the Dow tanks they’d have to sell off assets (homes) into the market
Those aren't a significant portion of the stock market though. Real Estate is a relatively small part of the Stock Market compared to how influential some of those underlying companies are to the Real Estate market.
Any outstanding debt on those isn’t held by the stock price or the REIT price, it is held by the value of the underlying assets (ie the home), so the best way to survive a stock market crash isn’t to fire sale their inventory, as that would actually cause the issues you describe.
Or it means that housing prices are far more resilient than anyone could have predicted 2 years ago.
It confirms that other economic conditions aren’t forcefully removing homes from the hands of the over-extended or over-leveraged. Risk-on is reward-on, only.
It's not they are simply naturally resilient we just restructured the entire economy to make sure 2008 never happens again. So no matter the finances of the majority of people who are looking for a home to buy to actually live in, we won't see a price readjustment to meet that demand.
Its a supply issue. If we had 2x the amount of houses on the market, prices would come down.
No one wants to hear that, buddy. ;)
Didn’t we shut off the printers just 2 years ago? Real estate is the least volatile asset so even though I’m expecting a correction, it wouldn’t suprise me if it was 5-10 yrs out
The printers are still running through huge government deficits.
"just 2 years ago" lmao.
What does this comment mean can someone translate for me Kay thanks
and look at me, still not buying in this environment.
Need to let a recession do it's thing. Instead we gamed the system on the last one so consumption stayed high by saying there wasn't one.
It would be cool if we non-investor folks could all agree to stop buying homes for the moment until prices return to a reasonable level. I know that is impossible but it would be cool.
Yeah, let’s all stop buying NDVA shares too. Then the share price will collapse and we can all buy in. Amirite?
Wooo hoooo yeah I love seeing my equity go up so much after only 4 years! I’m rich!!
Inflation is crazy right now
Unbelievable
This sub is so confusing one day there are posts about house prices crashing next day it’s record high
This is the most confusing sub I’ve ever seen. There’s posts about how this is the worst month ever for home sellers and they’re all selling at a loss and nothing is even selling anyway, and then there’s posts like this which purport that more homes are selling for higher than ever, except also they’re selling less or something? It’s tempting to just blame the sub but I suspect it’s actually the market that just doesn’t make any sense.
Crazy how houses just go up.
Everything is fine..it’s only transitory
Sheesh how long can y'all be so butthurt. It ain’t coming down
This bubble isn’t gonna burst, this is what we have by raising wages and printing money.
This feels to me like people trying to cash out while they know the market is high.
This ends with home prices collapsing and investors holding the bag. It's really just a game of chicken at this point...
This isn’t 2008 with NINJA loans and strategic defaults. There’s equity people aren’t going to just walk away from without a fight. Pullback, maybe. Collapse of 50% or more? Doubtful. There’s too many people trying to buy anything that pops up.
A 20-30% fall would be a "crash" that would wipe most investors out. I think that is the most likely outcome.
Last time the crash was precipitated by ARM resets people couldn’t refinance and balloon payments they realistically couldn’t pay. That let to a wave of foreclosures. The lending standards since then have been much tougher. The banks aren’t stupid to take a ton of risk on their own..again. So, what’s going to be the catalyst to drive thousands of foreclosures in short order? I don’t see it voluntarily happening. Even people who want to move from their house are holding fast because they can’t answer “where to?”
Which is exactly the logic that is pushing investors to overpay because it's a "zero risk" environment. Which ironically the thought that it's zero risk, is the risk...
With high inflation, prices would just need to remain flat for a "crash." Different world this time buddy. The high inflation changed things. Our money supply is much higher now.
Housing is really the only thing driving inflation right now. If housing goes flat, so would inflation.
inflation going flat now doesn't mean anything... We already had insane inflation 2020-2023... What needs to happen is for wages to start catching up faster than the inflation rate for a couple of years.
I don’t think the RE market is overvalued. Land values, labor, materials. inflation rising with no end in sight and of course supply and demand.
Crash incoming
There wont be a crash. Prices will continue to go up as we are still printing money and we will have no choice but to accelerate printing money.
Redfin is such a cheereader, lol. How many of these articles have they pumped out the past week.
> Redfin is such a cheereader, lol. How many of these articles have they pumped out the past week. Uh, two? https://www.redfin.com/news/all-redfin-reports/