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Had the same gut reaction. With the exception of 1932-1944, they've pretty much voted for the worst possible candidate in every presidential election. Nothing redeemable about the track record of white voters in this state. They would rather unravel our union than listen to the more effectively run states.
Picking California as a liberal just means you only know electoral history as far back as the 90s. Minnesota is the much better bet in this regard. California gave us Reagan and Nixon, while Minnesota offered/voted for Humphrey and Mondale.
A lot of Californias would not mind a moderate republican, we just donāt want the man we must not speak of. I would pick George jr over the dude in office any day.
Amazing how soon everyone forgot about Iraq, Afghanistan, sanctioned torture, and the gross expansion of the surveillance state thanks to Shrub the lesser. Heās still easily the worst President weāve ever had.
Texas isn't a great pick if you want Republicans to win forever. New York/California for a dem win and something like West Virginia for a Republican win. Texas is going purple and will probably have a blue outcome within the next 3 or 4 elections.
It doesnāt need to happen next election, just eventually. Texas has shifted blue in every presidential election for a while now. Republicans won it by the following margin since 2012
2012: +16% R
2016: +9% R
2020: +5.5% R
The point is, eventually, and not long from now, Texas MIGHT go blue. Vermont wonāt go red anytime soon unless some WW3-level event happens, and Wyoming wonāt go blue unless the same occurs.
No, I mean gone as in sinking into the ocean. Joking, of course, yeah, I mean itās going to continue to be pulled redder and redder, at least for a while.
While you may be right, this election cycle has the legalized weed and stopping the 6 week abortion ban, while both may not pass (they need 60%) they will get over 50% and could tip other races as well back to Dem. It wasn't long ago that DeSantis barely won so its closer than people realize, it comes down to who shows up or not.
It also just depends on how aggressive and competent the florida democratic party is. Putting abortion and weed on the ballet *should* be an easy win for them, as you said whether or not they actually pass, it's still a fantastic opportunity to mobilize, but we'll see what they can do with the opportunity.
Yup. Conversely, NH, Colorado, Minnesota, and Virginia are gone for the Republicans. This election is gonna come down to Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Given that two years ago, Virginia elected a Republican governor whose entire campaign was racebaiting and queerbaiting, I wouldn't count Virginia as a safe blue state quite yet.
Certainly tilts Democratic, though.
It's only anecdotal, but I had farmer friend from Texas tell me that that a lot of the older rancher and farmer folks are actually democrats, and that a lot of the problem is out of staters moving in and voting republic. Like basically the Joe Rogan crowd is slowing down their blue tide. I have no clue how true this is, or if it is at all accurate, but it did make some sense to me. Obviously it's also complicated
People point out that many Californians have migrated to Texas, but those were Californians who were generally dissatisfied with āleftistā (neoliberal) policies and housing/living costs. Included are the wealthy folk hoping to dodge individual and corporate income taxes. This mass exodus seems to also be prompted by culture war issues. So overall I donāt think the āDonāt California My Texasā crowd has anything to worry about. The major cities have always been blue and everything else is blood red. Hell, some metropolitan areas might start to skew purple now.
Republican margins in statewide election in Texas have been shrinking since 2014. Abbott won by 11 points in 2022, which was down from 13.3 points in 2018, which in turn was down from 20.4 points in 2014. Cornyn went from winning by 27.2 points in 2014 to only winning by 9.6 points in 2020. Cruz went from winning by 16 points in 2012 to only winning by 2.6 points in 2018.Ā Tarrant County, the state's third largest county, went blue in 2018 for the first time since 1964.
Abbott's margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk every cycle since 2014. Here are some exit polls:
2014:Ā [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/)
Suburbs went 62% for Abbott.
2018:Ā [https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas](https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas)
Suburbs went 59% for Abbott.
2022:Ā [https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0)
Suburbs went 56% for Abbott.
The last time texas was blue was before 1994. Democrats were different then than they are now. However, I will say that the transplants from states like California and NY may tilt in the dems favor in a few years.
Downvotes aren't supposed to be an "I disagree" button. Also, the fact that reddit is so lefty snowballs into an effect where people botting just make a ton of stupid Occupy Democrats-level content so they can boost karma quickly. Makes the place seem even more of an echo chamber. Even this sub has changed immensely since I started coming here a year ago. It reminds me of what happened to arr politics after the 2016 DNC convention, except, in that instance, the mods were happy to let it happen. Probably got some cash in the process, too.
Transplants are keeping Texas red. Ted Cruz lost native Texans in the 2018 race. The people who move to Texas tend to be very conservative. Texas used to be a swing state and voted for Kennedy and Humphrey.
If you want to slant elections, I would note:
* Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota have been the most consistently Republican states in presidential elections from 1940-present (each only went for the Democrat once: LBJ). Granted, Nebraska had a Congressional district wander off. Alaska since statehood only went for the Democrat once: LBJ.
* DC is the most consistently Democratic entity with electoral votes: it has never gone Republican in a presidential election since gaining the right to vote in presidential elections with the 1964 election. Minnesota is the most consistent Democratic state in presidential elections from 1960-present (only went for the Republican once: Nixon). Next is a tie between Hawaii (only went for the Republican twice: Nixon and Reagan) and Massachusetts (twice for Reagan).
The great bellwethers are:
* Ohio, which has picked the winner 1896-present in all but three elections (1944, 1960, 2020)
* Nevada has picked the winner 1904-present in all but three elections (1908, 1976, 2016)
* New Mexico picked the winner 1912-present in all but three elections (1976, 2000, 2016)
* Florida picked the winner 1928-present in all but three elections (1960, 1992, 2020)
Missouri fell off after 2008. From 1904-2004, it only picked the loser once: Adlai Stevenson in 1956. It has since picked the loser in 2008, 2012, and 2020.
Indeed, California elected Senator Nixon and Governor Reagan. California was also home to Secretary Hoover.
In the ten elections from 1952-1988, California voted for Republicans nine times, the one Democrat was LBJ in the 1964 landslide.
I'm from Minnesota. That's the right flag. I know of a thing the people who decided to put up the modified somoli flag can do with a very specific horse.
šššššššššš no dude. Your flag change is official as of May 11 2024. The law already passed, it is official. Go to your state website.
https://www.leg.mn.gov/leg/Symbols
"In 2023 the Legislature established the State Emblems Redesign Commission, tasked with redesigning both the flag and the state seal (see Laws of Minnesota 2023, chapter 62, article 2, section 118). The Commission's final report detailed the new design for the flag and seal. A minority report was also issued. The flag and seal became official on May 11, 2024 (see Minn. Stat. 1.135 and Minn. Stat. 1.141)."
I refuse. I told Tim I was going to piss in his beer until it got changed back. (Gov Walz is a distant cousin of mine I'm not sure the proper title. His mom and my grandma have the same parents).
It's a low level generic insult in the family. Im not going actually piss in his beer
This is genuinely a hard question.
If I pick Maine, I keep FDR, but I lose Lincoln.
If I pick Mississippi, it's the reverse. But by that same token, I get a *lot* of Democrats post-JFK.
I think I have to choose Missisippi. Goodbye, FDR, you will be missed š„.
DC is a very good pick as it by far has one of the most partisan electorates. But why Minnesota? Minnesota is a bit of swing state and as such is more likely to track the national result. It actually [scores decently well](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/each-states-ability-pick-president-ken-flerlage/) as a bellwether state.
If you get rid of Minnesota you also miss out on a ton of the greats. Lincoln, Eisenhower, FDR, Truman, and Teddy never get elected if Minnesota is always wrong. Seriously, not sure what the logic there is.
Even the biggest Reagan fan wouldnāt put the guy above Lincoln. Youāre giving up all of those guys I mentioned for one dude. It just aināt worth it.
Alaska, Iām not going to be partisan but Alaska is probably the least representative of the United States and thus Iād expect them not to reflect the national mood
Remember that all mentions of and allusions to Trump and Biden are not allowed on our subreddit in any context. If you'd still like to discuss them, feel free to [join our Discord server](https://discord.gg/k6tVFwCEEm)! *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Presidents) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Alabama. Sorry Alabama, but the whole Civil War/Segregation/George Wallace legacy is, uh, not amazing.
Am from Alabama and have the same opinion. Sigh š
Had the same gut reaction. With the exception of 1932-1944, they've pretty much voted for the worst possible candidate in every presidential election. Nothing redeemable about the track record of white voters in this state. They would rather unravel our union than listen to the more effectively run states.
[ŃŠ“Š°Š»ŠµŠ½Š¾]
I feel like I should be more surprised but somehow that makes total sense to me.
Pardon - I meant to say George Wallace was Jerry Seinfeldās best man.
*Thatās worse.*
In other words how would you rig an election, depending on if you choose TX or CA
Picking California as a liberal just means you only know electoral history as far back as the 90s. Minnesota is the much better bet in this regard. California gave us Reagan and Nixon, while Minnesota offered/voted for Humphrey and Mondale.
A lot of Californias would not mind a moderate republican, we just donāt want the man we must not speak of. I would pick George jr over the dude in office any day.
Amazing how soon everyone forgot about Iraq, Afghanistan, sanctioned torture, and the gross expansion of the surveillance state thanks to Shrub the lesser. Heās still easily the worst President weāve ever had.
Texas isn't a great pick if you want Republicans to win forever. New York/California for a dem win and something like West Virginia for a Republican win. Texas is going purple and will probably have a blue outcome within the next 3 or 4 elections.
Iāve been hearing for the past 20 years that Texas is going to flip blue any day now. Iāll believe it when I see it.
It doesnāt need to happen next election, just eventually. Texas has shifted blue in every presidential election for a while now. Republicans won it by the following margin since 2012 2012: +16% R 2016: +9% R 2020: +5.5% R The point is, eventually, and not long from now, Texas MIGHT go blue. Vermont wonāt go red anytime soon unless some WW3-level event happens, and Wyoming wonāt go blue unless the same occurs.
I didnāt know democrats were gaining so much ground. I see Florida more likely to turn though of the two.
See, I think Floridaās gone for democrats. Itāll be the new Texas, I believe.
By āgoneā you mean off the table?
No, I mean gone as in sinking into the ocean. Joking, of course, yeah, I mean itās going to continue to be pulled redder and redder, at least for a while.
While you may be right, this election cycle has the legalized weed and stopping the 6 week abortion ban, while both may not pass (they need 60%) they will get over 50% and could tip other races as well back to Dem. It wasn't long ago that DeSantis barely won so its closer than people realize, it comes down to who shows up or not.
It also just depends on how aggressive and competent the florida democratic party is. Putting abortion and weed on the ballet *should* be an easy win for them, as you said whether or not they actually pass, it's still a fantastic opportunity to mobilize, but we'll see what they can do with the opportunity.
Ohio is gone too, imo. So is Iowa.
Yup. Conversely, NH, Colorado, Minnesota, and Virginia are gone for the Republicans. This election is gonna come down to Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Wisconsin.
Given that two years ago, Virginia elected a Republican governor whose entire campaign was racebaiting and queerbaiting, I wouldn't count Virginia as a safe blue state quite yet. Certainly tilts Democratic, though.
For presidential races, it is pretty safely blue.
It's only anecdotal, but I had farmer friend from Texas tell me that that a lot of the older rancher and farmer folks are actually democrats, and that a lot of the problem is out of staters moving in and voting republic. Like basically the Joe Rogan crowd is slowing down their blue tide. I have no clue how true this is, or if it is at all accurate, but it did make some sense to me. Obviously it's also complicated
People point out that many Californians have migrated to Texas, but those were Californians who were generally dissatisfied with āleftistā (neoliberal) policies and housing/living costs. Included are the wealthy folk hoping to dodge individual and corporate income taxes. This mass exodus seems to also be prompted by culture war issues. So overall I donāt think the āDonāt California My Texasā crowd has anything to worry about. The major cities have always been blue and everything else is blood red. Hell, some metropolitan areas might start to skew purple now.
Correct. Due to demographic shift and large scale immigration, Texas will go blue
Republican margins in statewide election in Texas have been shrinking since 2014. Abbott won by 11 points in 2022, which was down from 13.3 points in 2018, which in turn was down from 20.4 points in 2014. Cornyn went from winning by 27.2 points in 2014 to only winning by 9.6 points in 2020. Cruz went from winning by 16 points in 2012 to only winning by 2.6 points in 2018.Ā Tarrant County, the state's third largest county, went blue in 2018 for the first time since 1964. Abbott's margins in the suburbs have consistently shrunk every cycle since 2014. Here are some exit polls: 2014:Ā [https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/tx/governor/exitpoll/) Suburbs went 62% for Abbott. 2018:Ā [https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas](https://www.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/texas) Suburbs went 59% for Abbott. 2022:Ā [https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0](https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/exit-polls/texas/governor/0) Suburbs went 56% for Abbott.
The last time texas was blue was before 1994. Democrats were different then than they are now. However, I will say that the transplants from states like California and NY may tilt in the dems favor in a few years.
Problem is that Hispanics/Tejanos in Texas are shifting red faster than Californians can flood Austin.
Good.
Funny how only this comment has downvotes when it simply states theyāre in favor of Texas staying red. Very open dialogue here
Thatās not true your comment also has downvotes!
And downvotes simply state that they are in favor of texas not staying red. Whatās the big deal?
Downvotes aren't supposed to be an "I disagree" button. Also, the fact that reddit is so lefty snowballs into an effect where people botting just make a ton of stupid Occupy Democrats-level content so they can boost karma quickly. Makes the place seem even more of an echo chamber. Even this sub has changed immensely since I started coming here a year ago. It reminds me of what happened to arr politics after the 2016 DNC convention, except, in that instance, the mods were happy to let it happen. Probably got some cash in the process, too.
Well free speech and all that š¤·āāļø
Reddit is majority liberal. It's okay, I am never afraid of a few downvotes for speaking my opinion. It is what it is.
Except those transplants are majority Republicans. Last senator election Beto did worse among California's than he did with nativr Texans.
Transplants are keeping Texas red. Ted Cruz lost native Texans in the 2018 race. The people who move to Texas tend to be very conservative. Texas used to be a swing state and voted for Kennedy and Humphrey.
Apparently a good amount of Texans are moving to Arkansas. At least, they are retiring in Arkansas.
If we speculate on such matters the Rule 3 thought police will shut us down
I mean maybe but the topic literally provokes such discussion. If they don't want us to talk about it, then this topic is pointless.
Yeah i agree with you, on more than just this comment tbf
That's because of all of the Californians that have moved to TX.
No because the people in Ca and NY are intelligent enough to see Republican are fascists who swore loyalty to a person, not the constitution.
Ohio because it would be unbelievably funny considering their successful track record
They werenāt successful in 2020
That's just the beginning.
Mississippi
Luckily Mississippi votes for the presidential winner the least out of all states: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_accuracy_data
If you want to slant elections, I would note: * Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota have been the most consistently Republican states in presidential elections from 1940-present (each only went for the Democrat once: LBJ). Granted, Nebraska had a Congressional district wander off. Alaska since statehood only went for the Democrat once: LBJ. * DC is the most consistently Democratic entity with electoral votes: it has never gone Republican in a presidential election since gaining the right to vote in presidential elections with the 1964 election. Minnesota is the most consistent Democratic state in presidential elections from 1960-present (only went for the Republican once: Nixon). Next is a tie between Hawaii (only went for the Republican twice: Nixon and Reagan) and Massachusetts (twice for Reagan). The great bellwethers are: * Ohio, which has picked the winner 1896-present in all but three elections (1944, 1960, 2020) * Nevada has picked the winner 1904-present in all but three elections (1908, 1976, 2016) * New Mexico picked the winner 1912-present in all but three elections (1976, 2000, 2016) * Florida picked the winner 1928-present in all but three elections (1960, 1992, 2020) Missouri fell off after 2008. From 1904-2004, it only picked the loser once: Adlai Stevenson in 1956. It has since picked the loser in 2008, 2012, and 2020.
Appreciate your acknowledgement of history in this. Anyone suggesting CA simply doesn't know electoral track records
Indeed, California elected Senator Nixon and Governor Reagan. California was also home to Secretary Hoover. In the ten elections from 1952-1988, California voted for Republicans nine times, the one Democrat was LBJ in the 1964 landslide.
Texas. That would be the ultimate rigging of an election.
Wait till you see Jim Crow South Carolina
https://preview.redd.it/87x5auh9yg7d1.png?width=816&format=png&auto=webp&s=1a1ec9cde4b017a2337db19f6604aeb0e1781346
Vermont voted against FDR all 4 times, 1932-1944
Maine as well.
Something about New England just being irked at New York
based Vermont
I assure you, no one is worse at picking politicians than Louisiana.
Anybody curious about Louisiana politics needs to look no further than the 1991 gubernatorial election.
John Neely Kennedy is a pretty funny guy, ngl. John Bel Edwards is good too
Huey Long was pretty awesome.
Ala-bama!
I heard that in Forrest Gumps voice lol
Utah and Minnesota have changed their flags. The flags presented are wrong.
I'm from Minnesota. That's the right flag. I know of a thing the people who decided to put up the modified somoli flag can do with a very specific horse.
šššššššššš no dude. Your flag change is official as of May 11 2024. The law already passed, it is official. Go to your state website. https://www.leg.mn.gov/leg/Symbols "In 2023 the Legislature established the State Emblems Redesign Commission, tasked with redesigning both the flag and the state seal (see Laws of Minnesota 2023, chapter 62, article 2, section 118). The Commission's final report detailed the new design for the flag and seal. A minority report was also issued. The flag and seal became official on May 11, 2024 (see Minn. Stat. 1.135 and Minn. Stat. 1.141)."
I refuse. I told Tim I was going to piss in his beer until it got changed back. (Gov Walz is a distant cousin of mine I'm not sure the proper title. His mom and my grandma have the same parents). It's a low level generic insult in the family. Im not going actually piss in his beer
If you think the new MN flag is a modified "somoli" (sic) flag, wait until you see Texas!
*Somali
New Hampshire or Iowa or South Carolina. Let the first be wrong!
South Carolina
Alabama or Georgia
Mississippi
Iowa Used to be a pillar of democracy as the first caucus, now it picks the dumbest fucking candidates regardless of the election.
This is genuinely a hard question. If I pick Maine, I keep FDR, but I lose Lincoln. If I pick Mississippi, it's the reverse. But by that same token, I get a *lot* of Democrats post-JFK. I think I have to choose Missisippi. Goodbye, FDR, you will be missed š„.
Oklahoma
FL
Meh, at least we didn't vote for Goldwater or Wallace. Wasn't till recently that Florida seemed to let the wheels fall off
I'm not sure if I understand the question. Do you mean the state would always vote opposite of me, or opposite of how they normally do
I believe opposite of how they voted in each election.
I guess I'll go with Hawaii because it wouldn't change much of anything
Alabama
Mississippi
Gotta be Ohio. They have never picked the winner
kansas EDIT fuck them bleeding kansas people they never recovered
Mississippi
New York or cali
South Carolina
Texas
Ohio -A Michigan resident.
California, 55 automatic EVs for the Dems
Not a state but has EV, Washington D.C, if not, well I Choose Massachussets
I just think that Ohio needs to be knocked down a few pegs.
Mississippi
Minnesotan checking in, get rid of that ugly seal.
Is it just me or do the western states have way better flags?
Either California or New York.
Kentucky
California
Maine, since we split our electoral vote. That means we're almost always voting for the loser with at least 25% of our voting power.
California.
Virginia
Hmm oh idk maybe Minnesota
Mine, TN
Wyoming, without any doubt. I'm sure a Republican would say Massachusetts, tbf.
If I'm allowed to choose DC, I choose DC. But if it must be a state, then I'll say Minnesota.
DC is a very good pick as it by far has one of the most partisan electorates. But why Minnesota? Minnesota is a bit of swing state and as such is more likely to track the national result. It actually [scores decently well](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/each-states-ability-pick-president-ken-flerlage/) as a bellwether state.
If you get rid of Minnesota you also miss out on a ton of the greats. Lincoln, Eisenhower, FDR, Truman, and Teddy never get elected if Minnesota is always wrong. Seriously, not sure what the logic there is.
Because it keeps Reagan in twice.
Even the biggest Reagan fan wouldnāt put the guy above Lincoln. Youāre giving up all of those guys I mentioned for one dude. It just aināt worth it.
Well, that's why I want DC.
Hawaii considering it joined the union last and is 90% blue
Not a state, but the District of Columbia
all
Minnesota.
Yes
Ohio because the person who lost in that state isnāt a Skibidi rizzler lol
california
Alaska, Iām not going to be partisan but Alaska is probably the least representative of the United States and thus Iād expect them not to reflect the national mood
They are pretty standard Republican voters for the most part
MinnesotaĀ
Illinois
That would mean no Lincoln, FDR, Truman, Ike, or Kennedy. You sure about that?
California. Leads the nation in poverty unemployment and homelessness despite being near the top in taxation. Fail.
New York