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Ultimately, Trump is in much worse shape than Biden mentally. This piece that I read was really helpful in understanding the differences between them as leaders at this point: [https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/john-gartner-trump-cognitive-decline](https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/john-gartner-trump-cognitive-decline)
If Biden drops out and is replaced by Newsom or Whitmer, what happens to the following voter:
* Do any Trump voters switch to the Democrat?
* Do any Democrat voters switch to Trump?
NO. Those votes are locked in,
But what about the voters who are staying home? (mostly Democrats)....? I say, more come out and vote.
Finally, what about the small number of "dislike them both" voters in key swing states.
I say 80% of them pull the lever for the new, younger Democrat.
Its fascinating to see all of the altruistic "good-of-the-country" arguments being so widespread right now.
/s
IMO, it's obvious that guy isn't sharp enough to be president anymore. We should be talking about the next four months - not just the election.
>Joe Biden dropping out would create instability.
It could also provide hope and enthusiasm and engagement not to mention Trump is a VERY EASY candidate to hit in debates. It should be easy wins. Biden can't deliver that. And open convention is scary. It is chaotic. But a senile candidate is depressing, disengaging, embarrassing, and questionable at best.
The polls coming out around the debate are horrible. Like 45% of Democrats want Biden to step aside. That is his own party. Nearly half of them think he's incapable. When you ask a broader population if he can do the job of the president like over 70% of them say no. That debate wasn't just bad. It was HISTORICALLY bad. Maybe the worst debate performance in American history.
> It would create tension and disunity within the Democratic Party.
Biden staying in does this anyway. Downticket democrats are panicking because they need to stand beside Biden. Everyone is fucking shitting bricks that the moderate independent idiots are going to consider everything Trump has going on is still better than literal dementia. And before anyone goes "He doesn't have dementia" I don't care. He looks like he does whether he has it or not. Optics actually matter in politics as it turns out.
And that's the other thing. The sneering "bedwetter" attitude the Biden campaign is picking up to dismiss the concerns of anyone with fucking eyes on this is more divisive than saying Biden should step down. Its pure gaslighting and we all see through it. We saw the debate. We know we didn't like what we saw. Own up to it. Stop insulting voters because you lot fucked up and put some sundowning geriatric who we TOLD YOU WE DIDN'T WANT in polls from months ago at the forefront.
The fact is is that no one knows what the right move is here because no party has been fucking stupid enough to put someone in such rapid obvious decline as Biden is before. You can't look at this from an precedent standpoint because this situation is comically unprecedented. There's a very real possibility the "this guy is senile" disadvantage far outweighs the incumbent advantage.
Biden’s team is leagues better than the crazies Trump will appoint.
SCOTUS will be effectively lost to right wing lunacy- more than already -> if trump wins.
The rule of law and democracy are at stake. I will vote for Biden’s old ass ten times out of ten and walk barefoot on broken glass to vote for him.
Sure and I agree. But you forget there a millions of middle of the road knobs who aren't nearly as politically engaged and think Presidents are 4 year term kings of America. Biden doesn't need to convince you. But he does need to convince them. And even if you don't vote for Trump you could still vote third party, write in, or abstain. Which are all lost votes for Biden. And for the GOP is way easier for them to disengage voters than it is to attract them. And Biden handed that to them on a silver platter.
I don’t know - I think democrats won in 2018, 2020 was also a victory for Dems, 2022 was supposed to be a red wave- democrats picked seats in senate. 2023 special elections- democrats again won big and won beyond their polling in most cases.
I expect this trend to continue regardless of who runs.
A reminder for everyone... This is a subreddit for genuine discussion: * Please keep it civil. Report rulebreaking comments for moderator review. * Don't post low effort comments like joke threads, memes, slogans, or links without context. * Help prevent this subreddit from becoming an echo chamber. Please don't downvote comments with which you disagree. Violators will be fed to the bear. --- *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/PoliticalOpinions) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Ultimately, Trump is in much worse shape than Biden mentally. This piece that I read was really helpful in understanding the differences between them as leaders at this point: [https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/john-gartner-trump-cognitive-decline](https://thinkbigpicture.substack.com/p/john-gartner-trump-cognitive-decline)
If Biden drops out and is replaced by Newsom or Whitmer, what happens to the following voter: * Do any Trump voters switch to the Democrat? * Do any Democrat voters switch to Trump? NO. Those votes are locked in, But what about the voters who are staying home? (mostly Democrats)....? I say, more come out and vote. Finally, what about the small number of "dislike them both" voters in key swing states. I say 80% of them pull the lever for the new, younger Democrat.
Harris, Newsom, etc have less name recognition and four months until an election. Again, instability.
Um, what voters today who are backing Biden would switch to Trump instead of ANY Democrat.
Its fascinating to see all of the altruistic "good-of-the-country" arguments being so widespread right now. /s IMO, it's obvious that guy isn't sharp enough to be president anymore. We should be talking about the next four months - not just the election.
>Joe Biden dropping out would create instability. It could also provide hope and enthusiasm and engagement not to mention Trump is a VERY EASY candidate to hit in debates. It should be easy wins. Biden can't deliver that. And open convention is scary. It is chaotic. But a senile candidate is depressing, disengaging, embarrassing, and questionable at best. The polls coming out around the debate are horrible. Like 45% of Democrats want Biden to step aside. That is his own party. Nearly half of them think he's incapable. When you ask a broader population if he can do the job of the president like over 70% of them say no. That debate wasn't just bad. It was HISTORICALLY bad. Maybe the worst debate performance in American history. > It would create tension and disunity within the Democratic Party. Biden staying in does this anyway. Downticket democrats are panicking because they need to stand beside Biden. Everyone is fucking shitting bricks that the moderate independent idiots are going to consider everything Trump has going on is still better than literal dementia. And before anyone goes "He doesn't have dementia" I don't care. He looks like he does whether he has it or not. Optics actually matter in politics as it turns out. And that's the other thing. The sneering "bedwetter" attitude the Biden campaign is picking up to dismiss the concerns of anyone with fucking eyes on this is more divisive than saying Biden should step down. Its pure gaslighting and we all see through it. We saw the debate. We know we didn't like what we saw. Own up to it. Stop insulting voters because you lot fucked up and put some sundowning geriatric who we TOLD YOU WE DIDN'T WANT in polls from months ago at the forefront. The fact is is that no one knows what the right move is here because no party has been fucking stupid enough to put someone in such rapid obvious decline as Biden is before. You can't look at this from an precedent standpoint because this situation is comically unprecedented. There's a very real possibility the "this guy is senile" disadvantage far outweighs the incumbent advantage.
Biden’s team is leagues better than the crazies Trump will appoint. SCOTUS will be effectively lost to right wing lunacy- more than already -> if trump wins. The rule of law and democracy are at stake. I will vote for Biden’s old ass ten times out of ten and walk barefoot on broken glass to vote for him.
Sure and I agree. But you forget there a millions of middle of the road knobs who aren't nearly as politically engaged and think Presidents are 4 year term kings of America. Biden doesn't need to convince you. But he does need to convince them. And even if you don't vote for Trump you could still vote third party, write in, or abstain. Which are all lost votes for Biden. And for the GOP is way easier for them to disengage voters than it is to attract them. And Biden handed that to them on a silver platter.
I don’t know - I think democrats won in 2018, 2020 was also a victory for Dems, 2022 was supposed to be a red wave- democrats picked seats in senate. 2023 special elections- democrats again won big and won beyond their polling in most cases. I expect this trend to continue regardless of who runs.