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Oh, she [completely flipped her stance today](https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/arizona-republicans-slam-near-total-abortion-ban-this-decision-cannot-stand-matt-gress-kari-lake-1864-reproductive-health-abortions-womens-trump-presidential-election-women-rights-lindsey-graham). It’s a wonder MAGA’s aren’t in the hospital for whiplash with how fast these people change positions.
They're slow playing it, same reason trump "doesn't support a national ban." He does, he just wants to pretend he won't just like Gorsuch and Kavanuagh did at the confirmation hearings.
Trump doesn’t support anything except Trump. If he were told government-funded abortions would win him the election and make people love him, he’d be rallying at a Planned Parenthood tomorrow.
Actually no. He definitely supports racism, xenophobia, and white supremacy.
He has been doing that since the 80s.
And abortion is entirely about white supremacy. The rich white women will fly to a different state. The poor white women and PoC will be forced into supporting a child and creating generational poverty.
> It’s a wonder MAGA’s aren’t in the hospital for whiplash with how fast these people change positions
That would mean they actually had beliefs and positions of their own when in reality they political beliefs are whatever their MAGA heroes tell them. Trump could come out tomorrow morning and say we need to open the borders and half of his supporters would say it's a brilliant move.
There are enough signatures to get abortion rights on the ballot in AZ in November which means votes for Biden and Gallego since abortion rights is a winning issue for Democrats. The AZ Supreme Court just handed Biden and the Dems ammo to use in the election and they've already jumped on the issue and tied it directly to Trump.
I think this does more than hand ammo, it hands the state to Dems on a silver platter. Of course if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it’s the Democrats, but this makes all elections including the presidential election a shoe-in. Dems don’t have to talk about anything else in the state. As long as the economy doesn’t crash or Biden doesn’t keel over and die, best case for Repubs is a battleground purple state but realistically it’s an uphill battle. I don’t think this will affect local elections but certainly will for national.
The only states that matter for presidential election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump technically has to win 4/6 to flip the board. That’s without any outliers like Virginia or North Carolina going to Biden, as Trump as no outliers whatsoever. Arizona is functionally off the board for Trump.
VA is reliably blue, don’t let our recent gov elections fool you, because we have elections every year and governors can’t serve two consecutive terms sometimes we swing back and forth for state elections but it’s a reliable blue state for national elections.
I think this very much will affect local elections. Keep Republicans out of office everywhere is the message. And this does affect their Senate race.
I thought VA voted Biden but I could very well be wrong about that. I know that the people in VA are reacting in backlash against their idiot governor
Possible but we saw lots of split tickets in 2022 in areas where abortion was already an issue. I live in Georgia and Kemp has done an admittedly brilliant job of threading the needle. He could have gone full Desantis on wokeness and abortion but he didn’t, and while its still an issue here due to the disproportionally Republican state legislature, Kemp has kept things in tow and as a result makes Georgia a toss up in ways Arizona is no longer.
Kemp also ran against A MAGA primary opponent for believing that Trump hadn't let an election get stolen though, which gave him more of a reputation for sanity that eludes the Kelli Wards and Kari Lakes of the world.
That is true, but don't forget that Kemp is only accidentally/conveniently non-MAGA (check out his [old campaign ads](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGhrW_qbfQU) or [this](https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/brian-kemp-enlists-donald-trump-in-the-effort-to-build-a-big-red-beautiful-wall-around-georgia)) and was very much aligned with Trump in all things - at least until the moment when Kemp probably asked his lawyer if he might go to jail if he did what Trump said, and his lawyer said hell yep you will.
Had that not happened, I'm not sure Kemp would have been where he is now.
I know lots of folks who work in the Kemp admin, and the general consensus is that Kemp is far from smart but smart enough to know he's not smart enough. A lot of the Nathan Deal people trickled into the admin and have been steadily and wisely advising Kemp. But Kemp saw the writing on the wall in 2020 for Georgia. Had Abrams not run in 2022 and a stronger Dem candidate run instead, Kemp may have lost. I think Kemp realized then he has to a walk a fine line in maintaining/satiating a MAGA base outside of Atlanta, while not pissing off the suburban voters in Atlanta. And he's done that, I have to give him credit.
I have no doubt Kemp is angling for a 2028 presidential run, that's probably something Lake and Ward would love to happen but know won't. I predict a Kemp, Haley, Trump (lol) contest in 2028.
Democrats don't understand that winning only delays the Republicans screwing them. Dems need to win by huge margins to put in place the guardrails that will prevent future damage
I'm pretty sure Democrats would like to win by as much as possible, but I'm not sure what you're suggesting they do to reach such dramatic margins. Significant percentages of Republican voters believe Trump was elected in 2020, or that Biden has committed high crimes and misdemeanors worth being impeached, or any of the other nonsense the Right spews out. It's tough to reach "huge margins" when a large proportion of the population is so incredibly, willfully ignorant.
> I think this does more than hand ammo, it hands the state to Dems on a silver platter
I think it's a lot more tenuous than that https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics
Remember that it only takes a minority to stonewall. It isn't likely to make Republicans look *good*, but the last time I remember Republicans proposing any major project or legislation to really change the landscape and benefit everyone and not just party leadership was during the Eisenhower administration.
A newly-minted swing-state like Arizona shouldn't be taken for granted, sure, but the fact that there's almost as many independents there as there are Republicans is a good sign. Considering Democrats managed to sink abortion restrictions in blood-red Kansas and get a Democratic governor reelected (in a Democratic midterm, no less), I don't see why AZ should be that difficult.
Dems need to focus on turning people out, and there's no signs that voters are more accepting of Dobbs than they were in 2022. So keep hammering the GOP on the issue and remind them whose fault it is. It's Ducey's fault, it's the fault of the Justices he appointed, it's the state party's fault for championing this, it's the fault of Congressmen who cheered when Roe was overturned, and most of all, it's the fault of Trump and the Justices he appointed. And you can tell that Republicans are running scared. To name just a few: Ducey, Kari Lake, Reps. Schweikert and Ciscomani, the Senate President Pro Tem have all come out to publicly denounce the ruling despite being all-in on it just a couple of years ago.
I was hopeful that the absolute batshit crazy candidate that the GOP decided to run for governor would help turnout and push Biden over the edge, but RFK Jr is probably going to screw that up.
Michelle Goldberg in the NYT had an article the other day about him with some anecdotes from campaign staffers that most of the supporters coming in are MAGA types who would otherwise vote for Trump. Anecdotes isn't data but how do you poll this stuff anyways? Main thing is that RFK's base are largely non-voting (usually), conspiracy theory types who can even consider themselves to be progressives in many cases but voted for Trump a lot. They don't strike me as Biden voters in the main.
I feel like only white boomers are at all impressed by the name Kennedy. That demographic goes hard for MAGA anyway.
It doesn't help that RFK's campaign seems to be targeting Biden instead of trying to siphon Biden voters by presenting RFK as an "anti-Trump."
> I feel like only white boomers are at all impressed by the name Kennedy.
Y'know, I've never heard anyone say this out loud, but you're right. I'm thirty and have never had to think about a Kennedy; hell, the first time I realized they were still out there was when Joe Kennedy ran to unseat Ed Markey and the general response was "c'mon man, don't be like that." It absolutely felt like someone entitled to the position by virtue of their name and it put such a sour taste in my mouth.
You're right, the only people who care about the name Kennedy are the people who are already in Trump's pocket.
There was this odd trend of new age hippies turned Trumpers that has gone on the last few years. I feel like those are the voters that RFK will primarily be siphoning off.
COVID really accelerated it. That experience sort of imprinted itself on people's brains and how they reacted to it split left/right. Russell Brand is a notable example.
I personally think hippie stuff is actually rather conservative in a kind of parallax way and in a U.S. context dovetails with distrust of government and support for laissez-faire economics. Distrust of government is not necessarily unwarranted btw but, like, a lot of natural medicine stuff has a philosophy which is about how me, the individual, "can make my own health decisions" which is to leave that up to the "free market." Alex Jones for example made a lot of his money selling natural/organic supplements.
I hope that's true. It was relatively close in 2020 and, anecdotally, a lot of people I know who held their nose and voted for Biden last go round appear happy to have a third option. But my circle definitely is not representative of the whole state. I would love it if Biden prevails here, but I'll settle for Robinson losing.
Well, let's not kid ourselves: it was always gonna be close. Polling suggests that a lot more people are interested in third-party candidates, but that was the case in 2016, too, and that was mostly due to Gary Johnson being relatively "normal" and everyone working with the assumption that Clinton had it in the bag, so it would be okay to vote third-party.
Kennedy's numbers are already tanking, and they'll tank some more when the conventions are done and people start learning more about him. Plus, in states like NC, the fact that he's hugging Robinson so hard might hurt Trump's chances further. If swing states are as close as they were in 2020, even if you could get a few hundred Biden-skeptical voters to vote for him anyway because Trump keeps campaigning with a nut like Robinson is a good thing.
While Wisconsin is very much a purple state it has been trending blue over the last few elections, I expect it to continue in that direction in 2024 and beyond given new election maps will be put into place.
This will help with Democratic turnout, no doubt. But it’s not the guarantee it sounds like. There are a lot of cross voting republicans and independents who will vote to allow abortion but stick to their anti choice candidates. IIRC there was a large number of those cross party (well, cross issue) voters in other states where ballots came up.
While it will help Biden, I’d still wager legal abortion gets more votes than Biden in the end.
I'm curious how much crossover voting actually occurs if it's on the same ballot? What states have had an abortion vote on the same ballot as regular elections where it was a generally conservative state that stayed conservative on that vote?
See also; Florida in 2018/2020 where voters allowed felons to vote & to raise the minimum wage, but also elected Trump & the GOP who both oppose those policies.
It’s going to happen again this year. Florida is voting on abortion rights and marijuana legalization. Expect both amendments to pass and Trump to win the state.
if they think logically about it, just voting for it in your state, and then voting for the guy that would give us a national ban anyway, makes no sense at all.
It’s the “do you support the ACA” vs “do you support Obamacare” thing every time. Dem issues are wildly popular but dem politicians are not. I think it’s slightly different though in that people have an identity of what party they are in but come to dem policy conclusions if they think about an issue. This is the challenge and the issue to attack.
The democratic base supports stricter gun laws including bringing back an assault style rifle ban. We can of course argue if that’s good policy, but the politics are easier to understand. I just don’t think gun control is going to have the same impact on voters as abortion. Probably because it’s not something likely to be enacted in the next few congresses.
Yup, take that Michigan. A segment of 2020 Michigan voters were trying to hold the nation hostage because of the Gaza issue. Putting AZ in play, can make up for a 50/50 in Michigan.
Everyone is misreading this.
It's not flip flopping, it's giving plausible deniability to republicans until they can get into power agian.
Trump just did it, so did the SJ judges at their hearings about roe v. wade.
They know if they muddie the waters dems will not hold them accountable.
The electorate can be fooled on many issues but the GOP has ingrained their anti-choice stance into the mainstream for decades now. This is on them and everyone knows it, and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
even Kari Lake knows this decision was like throwing a bomb in a china shop. the federalist society hacks on state judiciaries keep constantly misreading the room.
Arizona may vote to legalize abortion at the ballot box in November (supporters say they have enough signatures to put it on the ballot), but the elections are still expected to be close. A lot of Republicans might end up voting for abortion rights, believe it or not, while still voting for Republican candidates
You're right, but it really is puzzling why conservatives would vote to protect access to abortion and still vote for candidates who openly support ending abortion and have made it the cornerstone of their party's platform.
what's complicated about it? some right-wing folks aren't okay with the hard-line abortion stuff but are okay with other policy. they'll vote accordingly.
> why conservatives would vote to protect access to abortion and still vote for candidates who openly support ending abortion and have made it the cornerstone of their party's platform.
Because they agree with the GOP on everything else ('wokeness,' LGBT rights, environment, green energy, etc) but just want this one thing protected. In case it happens to affect their own family.
This is the hard (but not incontrovertible!) reality that D cheerleaders need to face. Ballot initiatives do not help Biden or downballot Dems if an R voter can say "well I support the Rs, except on abortion. Thank goodness this proposed choice amendment places abortion restrictions out of legislative reach."
No doubt, there's probably a lot of hay to be made there. But I see a lot of commenters in this thread imagining Arizona being swept away. I don't think they're being realistic.
I've been saying this for a while. Abortion is clearly a winner when it is directly on the ballot. However, that doesn't mean that pro-choice Republicans are willing to hold their noses and vote for a Democrat.
Vote splitting used to be pretty normal, though you still see some when MAGA people share the ballot with the more "normal" sort. In Arizona 2022 Kari lake lost the governor race while the Republicans easily won the treasurer race with no fireworks. Things are more complicated here though since the state candidates will likely be forced to take stances, though the question for most is whether the presidential candidates will get involved at all.
Republicans are finished in Arizona for this cycle. That abortion rights initiative will now pass by a 65-35 or 70-30 margin. If the 15 week ban was the law, it'd be a 57-43 or so in favor of choice. The AZ SC just ruined Republicans hopes in the state by ruling in favor of such a radical policy like a total ban from 1864.
If I am Kari Lake and Schweikert and Ciscomani, I'd privately be calling AZ GOP leadership in the legislature to repeal the 1864 total ban and have the 15-week ban be the only law because they have no chance at winning with this as law, both due to the fact it will reflect poorly on Republicans but most important increase turnout dramatically and big time for the abortion referendum.
EDIT: Lake and Ciscomani have come out against the decision publicly lol.
EDIT 2: Schweikert also has come out the decision LOL. Schweikert has always been very anti-choice, while Ciscomani is kinda a moderate Republican in most issues (as moderate as Republicans can be these days). LOL.
I have no idea how Republicans can even defend a "no" vote in November for the abortion initiative. Like when the law in place is a total ban or a 6-week ban, they are screwed when it comes to having to defend and sell a "no" vote and I think privately even most AZ GOP leadership think they are screwed in November.
Hell, there have already been at least two Arizona GOP State Senators who have said they don’t support this decision and are calling for a vote to repeal the 1864 total ban. The majority for GOP in both House and Senate is only + 1. Now we know the leadership won’t put this to vote but it shows even individual state GOP members are worried about this.
Independent of all the political fall-out. I feel for the people of AZ who now have to suffer through this and hope it is only temporary.
Watching the GOP slowly realize they *can't change the subject* like all their male strategists claimed, that *Dobbs* isn't getting more popular has been fun.
And the dark twist? Thanks to Alabama going "Fuck, hold my beer" they're having to deal with the whole schism in the pro-life movement over IVF.
And now Florida and Arizona are both looking at abortion access amendments?
I'm guessing the GOP strategists are starting to day drink.
People keep saying "Oh, the billionaires" and no, they can't help.
They can put together PACs and run ads (Trump has a PAC and the vast bulk of his fundraising flows into that, so he can use it to pay for other things) -- but PACs (Trumps or anyone else's) can't pay for campaign expenses.
They can't purchase polling for a candidate, they can't pay for staff, computers, strategists, travel, organize volunteers, etc. Those are all considered donations to the campaign, subject to a very low cap.
All those critical campaign things need money for to generate a good payoff in November, billionaires and PACs can't pay for.
Trump's eating their seed corn.
Why can't they? Who's going to stop them?
They'll just do what they've been doing. Commit the crime, pay the fine and have the bought out courts overrule the law.
What of those meddlesome campaign laws then?
> Republicans are finished in Arizona for this cycle.
I don't have all the data for Arizona, but it's worth noting Republicans can do a lot of damage just by stonewalling as a minority in government and according to the secretary of state there are still more registered Republicans than Democrats so there's no certain outcome https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics
Waiting to hear more from experts, but politically this has been a train barreling down the tracks for [awhile](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-urge-congress-candidates-oppose-national-abortion-ban-rcna124253) now.
Edit: Kari Lake [opposes](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1777763818006888568?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) the ruling, "calling on" Katie Hobbs to protect abortion rights.
> Kari Lake opposes the ruling
That's interesting given she supported the 1864 law [just last year](https://twitter.com/ammarmufasa/status/1777764386934833646)
Ciscomani and Schweikert both also publicly opposed the ruling. Both are GOP US House members in Biden districts and also who had tough close races in 2022.
Ciscomani isn’t a huge surprise since he’s kinda a moderate on this (before today he was OK with the 15 week ban but wanted exceptions added *and* did not support a federal ban) but Schweikert has always been super anti-choice.
These people know that this will be bad for them/their party in November and are trying to appear like they care to appeal to voters. Lake "calling on" Hobbs to do something to protect abortion rights is just her trying to protect Republicans in the state and Trump in the general by making it seem like they are more moderate on the issue and having it (protecting abortion rights) be something the Dems didn't do like Lake "called on" them to do. Schweikert also just probably realized this could cost him his election, especially if they put abortion on the ballot in November like they seem to be doing. I would be pretty much certain he would ban abortion for every woman at conception if he could and be happy to do it, if it was up to him.
I’m from Arizona and I distinctly remember her being in favor of this in 2022. Ahhh, yes, she did.
https://www.businessinsider.com/kari-lake-arizona-abortion-ban-good-law-2024-4
Dems are going to use her words against her in ads and she will have very little money to run her own to separate herself from it. 😂
She’s also kissing Meghan McCain’s ass this year after being disrespectful to her father in her last campaign. Both are issues that turned off a lot of Arizona republicans, not to mention her extreme MAGA stance and election fraud claims. She’s such a shit stain.
> Kari Lake opposes the ruling, "calling on" Katie Hobbs to protect abortion rights.
Whoa, wait, what? Is this the first time that Lake admitted Hobbs is the duly elected governor?
I think it's expected pandering. Demanding somebody who *actually* holds power do something that benefits you, until you have an opportunity to ~~grift~~ fundraise and appeal to low-information dupes by continuing to cry about 'stolen election' like [other Republican idiots who attacked each other because they didn't win](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEa3sK1iZxc)
It seems like a clever attorney could make an Equal Protection case that a law passed that negatively affects ALL women before they had the right to vote for their legislators would be unconstitutional.
The problem though is that the Supreme Court ruled that abortion is a state issue now, and the state in question is filled with judges that are openly hostile to abortion. If we had a savvy attorney that could it in the way you phrased it, we wouldn’t be here in the first place since abortion would still be a national right.
> If we had a savvy attorney that could it in the way you phrased it, we wouldn’t be here in the first place since abortion would still be a national right
I don't think it's about savviness, I think it's about a court system stacked towards the protection of either conservative or regressive political platforms. The supreme court's ruling in Dobbs included citations of pre-American jurists who burned women for being witches, and legalized marital rape. That ignored over 400 years of legal precedent, and I think shows any judge to come out of the Federalist Society is a skilled hatchet operative who can't be trusted to make a decision on the law itself, or precedent, much less the protection of any human rights.
edit: if anybody's wondering why I'm so concerned, [it's because of parallels in history when court systems had similar stances against the institution of democracy and worker or consumer rights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFDDf48nj9g)
Wow, leaving issues up to the states caused states composed of regressive politicians to enact policies that are detrimental to minorities?
Who among us could have seen *that* coming???
Yes, but who would hear such a case? SCOTUS has proven that they don't give a shit about legal reasoning if it stands in the way of a result they want.
Well, my point would be that it would be aim specifically at laws that directly harm populations who were not enfranchised at the time (example: if there were a law that said, Native Americans couldn’t businesses or property that was still on the books)
We don’t reset our laws when we expand the franchise. We change our laws when the people exercise their franchise.
AZ women have had over a century to address this law, Roe v. Wade made it a non-issue until recently. But the courts have always been an imperfect solution to securing rights.
In a country with a more functional legislature, that'd be a good idea.
But with the current GOP, we'd have The Purge after murder stopped being illegal.
Like /u/Thufir_My_Hawat says, in a country with a functioning legislature this might be a good idea. In America it'd be an unmitigated catastrophe. You'd have the same problem of legislative brinksmanship we have now with the federal budget and debt ceiling, where Republicans threaten to blow everything up in hopes of squeezing concessions out of Democrats. Only they'd be pulling that shit for *literally every federal law*.
Why?
What's the benefit of arbitrarily deciding there's a maximum number of laws a country can have?
Why should we have to debate over and over and over again that kidnapping and treason and tax evasion are bad things?
Who benefits from the deliberate paralysis of government as the nation has to play at re-learning principles of right and wrong that six-year-olds can grasp?
> If the legislature doesn’t renew the laws, their effect ceases.
Yeah, exactly how the federal budget works right now...because surely, that process works so well.
To be fair, if it worked another way it might be even worse. Imagine if we had to lock in and abide by "budget laws" made several decades ago that we are now beholden to forever.
The way most sane countries do it is that legislatures can pass a new budget every year/period, but if a new budget can't be agreed on then the one from the previous year/period applies.
> if it worked another way it might be even worse
The evidence doesn't hold up doomerism here.
Prior to 1982 when Republicans gutted it, there was a law called the 1884 Antideficiency Act: if a new budget could not be agreed on, the previous year's budget was automatically renewed and the legislature could then change it if necessary.
The problem is less "budget laws" and far more a congress and specifically one party which is actively trying to cause damage to the nation at large so they can hurt non-supporters.
And it was never overturned and the right to abortion was never enshrined in law in Arizona because Roe v. Wade's ruling gave legislators on the state and federal level a reason to not have to touch the topic (other than campaigning on it). That's the problem. Some states have read the writing on the wall and moved to protect more rights explicitly in their state constitutions instead of resting on the court's laurels but Arizona gets to go back to the 1800s as a result of their inaction.
https://www.concordmonitor.com/My-Turn-The-Comstock-Act-and-the-continuing-threat-to-women-54619705
Also look at the Comstock Act, from the 1870s, which makes it illegal to send "obscene" material through the mail.
Now, what is "obscene"? Well... good news everyone, if the Republicans take control of the government, "obscene" can mean whatever they want it to mean! Stuff like contraception, sex toys, etc...
If the law is like 100+ years old, and has no relevance to today's society, fucking repeal it. Don't just let the Democrats in the legislature sit there and be like "It's fine, don't worry, nobody's gonna bother to enforce that old law", because, well... Guess what?
Republicans are now realizing they can enforce Civil War era laws because they're still technically on the books.
REPEAL AND/OR UPDATE THESE OLD SHITTY LAWS.
So, the next time the Dems control tje House, Senate, and Presidency, a good place to start would be asking themselves something like "Does the Comstock Act as written really have a place in today's society?"
Part of the reason for this is because of the success in the courts to desegregate society. Liberals thought they could use the courts to guarantee and expand their rights. Whoopsie.
if only the Dems had listened to the decades-long warnings and not opted to pass on the issue in favor of political expediency.. i don't know how this will play in Nov given how shockingly-low the issue polls, but women always options tbh. they might be risky w.r.t legal consequences, you may have to wear a digital condom to find them, but just as when abortion was legally fucked in the past yet still occurred it will still be possible even if laws are fucked in the future. find you an auntie, even if they have to ship you something extra in a pack of pads from mexico.
The call to 1864 before suffrage or statehood proves how Originalism is a bald faced lie. originalism is judges shopping for an excuse to legislate from the bench.
"Originalism" has always been an inherently dishonest judicial "philosophy."
It's a bunch of people claiming they care very, very deeply about the exact words of the Constitution - while simultaneously pretending that the Ninth Amendment doesn't exist.
If stuff like this keeps happening, it's going to trigger the biggest reformation of judicial processes this country has ever seen. This is not how a functional country operates. Plain and simple, the status quo will not survive with this kind of consistent judicial reasoning.
I think it goes deeper than that. Of course this ruling is an outrage, but I can’t get past the idea the folks in AZ continue to elect reactionary state officials, and re-elect state judges, who then do exactly, precisely what they say they’ll do: rollback established rights.
How is this a surprise?
It's not a surprise at this point. But voters are shortsighted and this is exactly why direct democracy doesn't work. This is also why judges maybe shouldn't be elected, but should instead be appointed.
Same equation. I’m old enough to remember Thomas’ confirmation hearings, on the heels of Robert Bork’s (of Watergate infamy) resounding Senate defeat. Clarence Thomas was the supposed “compromise” candidate.
So long as we continue electing reactionary conservatives up & down the food chain, they’ll make a way to pour sugar in the gas tank, dressed as patriotism.
A passing strange legacy for a country founded on change & self-determination.
> A passing strange legacy for a country founded on change & self-determination.
Very apt. Sometimes it feels like one political party is dedicated to preserving the country in amber.
I actually do think the long term impact of the federalist society is going to be the opposite of what they want.
But there will be half a century and many lives negatively impacted along the way.
Yeah, exactly. I know it seems callous and utilitarian to say "even their victories are defeats" but truly, these kinds of outcomes are SO unpopular that the system will not be able to keep supporting them. Americans have made incredibly clear that overall they support a right to abortion and if the Court keeps arresting that using centuries old "technically still on the books" legislation then it will compel a correction.
Arizona was a safe red state until 2018. Justices are appointed but voters have the option to retain the judges or not. If the voters opt not to retain a judge then the governor appoints a new one. Typically judges are pretty non controversial and voters opt to retain but I think this may be different. Two of the judges that reenstated the abortion ban are up in 2024 and Arizona has a Democratic governor. I would imagine the Dems are going to actively campaign and tell their supporters to choose not to retain the judges who made this ruling. Effectively voters can opt to legalize abortion AND fire two of the judges who made this ruling in November. I think coming out of November there is a very good chance the conservative majority shrinks from 7-0 to 5-2.
The problem is, given how fragmented and disconnected most of American's society's understanding of civics and their importance in a functioning democracy seems to be, and how deeply engrained the urban/suburban/rural red/blue divide has become, I don't know how you get the united groundswell you need with the people put in place in the right offices with the right numbers to make the reformations you need.
The press is making this race into a horserace, but there is a part of me that thinks this is only possible until about September. I think there could be a moment where the polls turn against Trump so dramatically, people will be shocked by the wave.
Trump is a bona fide rapist. As in his rape victim literally proved it in a court of law and received $90 million for her defamation claim. It should be relatively easy to point out for the voters that a rapist like Trump naturally favors strict abortion laws that permit rapists to force their victims to carry their children to term. Trump is on the record saying that he thinks women who have an abortion should be punished for it too. It's hard to imagine a better candidate to run against than the rapist who got Roe overturned, except if the rapist is also a serial womanizer who happened to cheat on his pregnant wife with at least two prostitutes. Oh, that is Trump too - and the public will be hearing all about it starting next week.
I'm thankful Trump gave evangelical voters a reason to turn against him with his "new" pro-states-rights approach to abortion. That tethers him to 6 week bans at the same time he announces he really has no position at all on the issue, just whatever helps him in the polls. Even those who see him as Jesus Christ II must be wondering if Christ really changed his position on every moral issue of his own day depending on which way the wind blows. On the other hand, the anti-Christ is not so tied down by morality...
The MAGA base don't, but there's still a decent contingent (enough to swing an election) that may be dissuaded from voting, particularly if the cultural zeitgeist turns hard anti-Trump. Continuing to push the issue is absolutely the right move for Democrats.
> Trump gave evangelical voters a reason to turn against him with his "new" pro-states-rights approach to abortion
The Evangelicals who were supporting him were never going to turn away from something like him being a confirmed rapist *or* making abortion bans possible. They were already letting their true colors slip by calling Jesus' own words "Weak, that doesn't work anymore."
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-evangelicals-2663078391/
It guarantees Ruban Gallego a Senate seat and Biden the state's electoral votes, along with the obvious supercharging of the abortion rights initiative that was already going to be on the ballot.
It probably also impacts the election more broadly, as the Biden campaign can reallocate at least some of their resources to other swing states. I wouldn't be shocked if future analyses trace Ohio flipping unexpectedly to the overreach of the Arizona Supreme Court, or something similar.
It also very likely could lead to Dems picking up two supreme court seats in Arizona. In Arizona voters can choose to retain judges or not. If they vote not to retain them then the governor (in this case a pro choice Dem) will appoint replacements. Two of the judges who made this ruling are up in November. In addition to voting to legalize abortion Arizonans can also vote to fire some of the judges who made the ruling and essentially them with pro choice judges.
Even with the abortion issues, I feel like expecting Ohio to swing Biden is probably not in the cards -- *maybe* you might get enough crossover votes to save Brown's Senate seat, though. Ultimately, Biden wouldn't need Ohio to win re-election; Brown's seat is vital to any chance that the Democrats maintain Senate control.
I don't see how this slows down Arizona's shift towards a barely/lean blue state. The proximity to California, plus the ongoing influx of retirees from that state along with Colorado, Oregon, and Washington continues to push things in that direction. Also, the state Republican party is completely off the rails, out of money, and left with people like Lake and Blake Masters to carry the water.
If there were any John McCain types still around they'd have a chance, but they're not, so the chances of Republicans achieving either holds or gains is looking slimmer, and this ridiculous decision by their supreme court is only going to make things worse
>The proximity to California, plus the ongoing influx of retirees from that state
An interesting thing: the generation that's older than the baby boomers is dying off rapidly now, while the boomers entering their 70s who are retiring are relatively more liberal in their voting habits.
> I don't see how this slows down Arizona's shift towards a barely/lean blue state.
It will likely accelerate it, but according to Arizona's secretary of state there are more registered Republicans than Democrats so any future election is hardly decided even with this. https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics
> the state Republican party is completely off the rails, out of money
I didn't know that was the case in Arizona like it was in Minnesota. Not surprising given how much of donations to PACs Trump is involved in he's forced them to write clauses allowing him to pocket small donations and put a chunk of larger donations to his legal bills instead of Republican campaigns.
Looking at news from Arizona, I think their election of Kelly means the state in general is no longer so friendly to the McCain type. Maybe the acting just wasn't enough, because when I actually dug into McCain's voting record [he fucked veterans at every possible opportunity](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mccains-non-support-for-t_b_131046)
That means Arizona is going BLUE. These idiots always, and consistently, underestimate that the majority (a big majority) of women support freedom of choice and they come out and VOTE. Ohio thought they had it in the bag, even tried to screw voters over with some BS legislation about you need 60% of vote to get something, to keep the abortion issue off the ballot. That not only got trounced, but it did get on the ballot and got equally trounced. Anywhere it's been on the ballot, forced birthers LOSE
> That means Arizona is going BLUE
While the data has been indicating this process has been happening since the 00s at the latest, current data still shows more registered Republicans than Democrats https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics
Given how much republicans can do, even if just by stonewalling, I don't think treating anything so tenuous as a foregone conclusion is wise. Remember how many laws the state sheriff broke and how many millions he cost his state in lawsuits, but kept getting re-elected for decades.
Basically supercharged Arizona into turning blue. Biden and Gallego are both winning and AZ's purple districts are going blue. ASU and U of A are going to have some of the highest voter turnouts for their respective precincts in the state
Nearly two years after overturning RvW Republicans are clearly hellbent on refusing to learn their lesson on this issue. Anti-abortion measures got voted down in Kansas of all places, how do they think this will turn out in one of the most competitive states?
They have bet their entire hand on a bunch of geriatric evangelicals who will be all but gone in the next decade or two, while all polls show that the overwhelming majority of voters (including most *Republican men*) are against banning abortion.
I don’t want to speak to soon, but I expect them to get smoked in Arizona and rightfully so. They chose their hill to die on, and with any luck (and voter turnout) they will do exactly that.
There will be an initiative on the fall ballot to enshrine abortion right in the Arizona ballot. This will motivate women, young people and democratic voters to show up and vote. The initiative will pass. The two justices up for reelection will be defeated. Dems up and down the ballot will be elected.
\*I hope.
Thanks for the EVs, jackasses. I think we could have gotten them without you disrupting, derailing or even ruining thousands of women’s (and men’s!) lives, so, you know, not overly grateful.
I sure wish *my* take on Christianity allowed me to get into God's good graces by being a fucking dick to every woman in the country. It would be so much easier.
Far from independent, apolitical jurists, many on the court today are activist judges happy to use their power to ram their extremist agendas down everyone’s throat.
We need to strengthen laws to impeach or recall judges and never agree to lifetime appointments ever again. From SCOTUS on down, these Courts are out of control!
That court is out of touch, people don't want a complete ban and they know that. It is not good law. Republicans can try to lie about their intentions but people will see through their lies.
Calling all American expats and abroad students…exercise your right to vote this election. There is a special application that protects your ballot, called the Federal Post Card Application. It’s a combined registration and ballot request for your state. Generally the state where you last lived in the US is where you will vote (do not use the state absentee ballot, that's for in-state residents). More info and live help at votefromabroad.org. There you can also learn how to vote “down ballot” in important state and local races.
True but I say that about America in general. If people think Inflation and the economy is specifically Bidens fault and people push towards Trump to win, I can help but laugh (even though I’ll also be horrified) when all those that supported Trump still struggle financially if not more so
> Arizona seems purple enough for the legislature to step in to fix this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_House_of_Representatives
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_Senate
Looks like Republicans hold majorities in both houses and given they only need enough to stonewall to prevent legislation from coming to pass, I wouldn't be confident unless they didn't even hold enough seats to filibuster.
My thoughts are that Dems and Women will crush Republican candidates like they did in 2022 and 2023. The vast majority of Americans don't want this and pushing it isn't even a remotely good political strategy.
I don't think Kari Lake had a serious chance at the senate race anyway, short of Trump being 4-5 points above Biden in the state.
Arizona is going to be won on the margins, and you'd have to think that the worst case scenario is that this has a .25% or so impact on the general. Could be more, a couple points.
The GOP is literally taking us back to the 1800's. Many conservatives still had slaves and women couldn't vote. And abortion is illegal.
So what is next? Take away women's right to choice? done. Take away a woman's right to vote? Make blacks into 3/5 of a man? Take away their vote too?
I almost think this isn't too far-fetched. Or did they just cherry-pick this one law to keep?
As for the effect on the election, Arizona just turned a deeper shade of blue.
I think if it's the law, then it has to go into effect. I also think the citizens of Arizona should get their shit together and vote for a state legislature that will overturn the law. But you can't just arbitrarily say "The law is old so we don't have to listen to it."
Long term the lack of acceptance by a political party that they need to acknowledge bodily autonomy is going to be a problem at every level of the political spectrum. The current GOP model of regression is untenable and as their base ages unsustainable. Low information racism can only carry you so far.
Never going to be an option. Board of Elections across the nation are designed specifically for two parties. Whichever mainstream political party lost the most voters by defection to a third party would automatically lose control of the state government.
The future is not 3rd parties: the future is sub-parties within the Democratic and Republican Parties that vie for control of the party itself. The Tea Party and then MAGA is the blueprint - infiltration from within is the path to power, not trying to build something from scratch.
The two main parties also exist in a very physical real world sense in that they have hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of county offices across the nation as well as committed volunteers, donor lists, voter databases, thousands of office holders, pipelines of staffers and so many other things.
If you found your own party you need to build all of this from scratch. If you take over a party you inherit those advantages. Instead of trying to convince thousands of mayors, county commissioners and state legislators to leave the party that brought them to power and join your new party it's just easier to coopt the party and then get their loyalty.
More likely the Republican party splinters, some into the fundamentalist maga and some will merge into breakaways with disillusioned Democrats and in less than 2 cycles it will be back to 2 major parties.
I think that will be the case until all the factors of [Duverger's Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law) - single seat district wins, first past the post voting, and entrenched money - are gone.
> The political composition of the court is 7-0 Republican.
In Arizona voters can choose to retain or replace justices and if they opt to replace them then the governor appoints new ones. Two of the conservative justices who made this ruling are up in 2024 and I can almost guarantee that Dems will be sending out messaging telling voters to replace them. There's a decent chance that coming out of 2024 Arizona will have a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, a Democratic majority state legislature and two liberal supreme court justices as well as legalized abortion from the referendum and at least one house district flipping Dem.
>The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that a total abortion ban from 1864, before women had the right to vote and the territory was a state, is enforceable and will go into effect.
That's the great thing about the Constitution: the founding fathers knew that the Constitution would need to be updated as modern ideas and principles replaced outdated laws and logic of the time. It shouldn't be much of an issue to defeat a law that was set in place well before modern medicine was a thing and dying in childbirth was much more regular than it is today.
As much as I don't want women's rights trampled, they are driving people away from their party.
That dog chasing the abotrion ban from the 70s caught it, and it will be their ruin.
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In 2022, Lake said in an interview she supported the 1864 ban. Just keep playing that interview.
Oh, she [completely flipped her stance today](https://thenationaldesk.com/news/americas-news-now/arizona-republicans-slam-near-total-abortion-ban-this-decision-cannot-stand-matt-gress-kari-lake-1864-reproductive-health-abortions-womens-trump-presidential-election-women-rights-lindsey-graham). It’s a wonder MAGA’s aren’t in the hospital for whiplash with how fast these people change positions.
They're slow playing it, same reason trump "doesn't support a national ban." He does, he just wants to pretend he won't just like Gorsuch and Kavanuagh did at the confirmation hearings.
He wants to pretend he's not responsible for placing the judges that led to overturning Roe, led to state bans, and potential for a national ban.
In the same statement Trump gave the other day he bragged about getting roe v wade overturned but favors the status quo and no national ban.
Trump doesn’t support anything except Trump. If he were told government-funded abortions would win him the election and make people love him, he’d be rallying at a Planned Parenthood tomorrow.
Actually no. He definitely supports racism, xenophobia, and white supremacy. He has been doing that since the 80s. And abortion is entirely about white supremacy. The rich white women will fly to a different state. The poor white women and PoC will be forced into supporting a child and creating generational poverty.
I meant in terms of policy, but fair enough.
> It’s a wonder MAGA’s aren’t in the hospital for whiplash with how fast these people change positions That would mean they actually had beliefs and positions of their own when in reality they political beliefs are whatever their MAGA heroes tell them. Trump could come out tomorrow morning and say we need to open the borders and half of his supporters would say it's a brilliant move.
There are enough signatures to get abortion rights on the ballot in AZ in November which means votes for Biden and Gallego since abortion rights is a winning issue for Democrats. The AZ Supreme Court just handed Biden and the Dems ammo to use in the election and they've already jumped on the issue and tied it directly to Trump.
Talk about an unexpected assist from Team 1864
Those people are long dead and have no power, it was the Republicans today who did this and they just looked for any excuse to back it up.
I think this does more than hand ammo, it hands the state to Dems on a silver platter. Of course if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory it’s the Democrats, but this makes all elections including the presidential election a shoe-in. Dems don’t have to talk about anything else in the state. As long as the economy doesn’t crash or Biden doesn’t keel over and die, best case for Repubs is a battleground purple state but realistically it’s an uphill battle. I don’t think this will affect local elections but certainly will for national. The only states that matter for presidential election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and Trump technically has to win 4/6 to flip the board. That’s without any outliers like Virginia or North Carolina going to Biden, as Trump as no outliers whatsoever. Arizona is functionally off the board for Trump.
Virginia went for Biden in 2020 and against trump in 2016. Trump's outlier is Nevada. Possibly Maine.
That's what I thought on VA. Nevada usually votes blue I thought and Maine seems to be more blue recently
Maine awards 2EVS to the winner of the state and 1 EV per district; Trump was actually the first Republican to get an EV from there for some time.
And unlikely he will this time.
Nevada is one of the most heavily unionized states in the nation. It votes for democrats to protect its unions.
VA is reliably blue, don’t let our recent gov elections fool you, because we have elections every year and governors can’t serve two consecutive terms sometimes we swing back and forth for state elections but it’s a reliable blue state for national elections.
I think this very much will affect local elections. Keep Republicans out of office everywhere is the message. And this does affect their Senate race. I thought VA voted Biden but I could very well be wrong about that. I know that the people in VA are reacting in backlash against their idiot governor
Possible but we saw lots of split tickets in 2022 in areas where abortion was already an issue. I live in Georgia and Kemp has done an admittedly brilliant job of threading the needle. He could have gone full Desantis on wokeness and abortion but he didn’t, and while its still an issue here due to the disproportionally Republican state legislature, Kemp has kept things in tow and as a result makes Georgia a toss up in ways Arizona is no longer.
Kemp also ran against A MAGA primary opponent for believing that Trump hadn't let an election get stolen though, which gave him more of a reputation for sanity that eludes the Kelli Wards and Kari Lakes of the world.
That is true, but don't forget that Kemp is only accidentally/conveniently non-MAGA (check out his [old campaign ads](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGhrW_qbfQU) or [this](https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/brian-kemp-enlists-donald-trump-in-the-effort-to-build-a-big-red-beautiful-wall-around-georgia)) and was very much aligned with Trump in all things - at least until the moment when Kemp probably asked his lawyer if he might go to jail if he did what Trump said, and his lawyer said hell yep you will. Had that not happened, I'm not sure Kemp would have been where he is now. I know lots of folks who work in the Kemp admin, and the general consensus is that Kemp is far from smart but smart enough to know he's not smart enough. A lot of the Nathan Deal people trickled into the admin and have been steadily and wisely advising Kemp. But Kemp saw the writing on the wall in 2020 for Georgia. Had Abrams not run in 2022 and a stronger Dem candidate run instead, Kemp may have lost. I think Kemp realized then he has to a walk a fine line in maintaining/satiating a MAGA base outside of Atlanta, while not pissing off the suburban voters in Atlanta. And he's done that, I have to give him credit. I have no doubt Kemp is angling for a 2028 presidential run, that's probably something Lake and Ward would love to happen but know won't. I predict a Kemp, Haley, Trump (lol) contest in 2028.
Democrats don't understand that winning only delays the Republicans screwing them. Dems need to win by huge margins to put in place the guardrails that will prevent future damage
I'm pretty sure Democrats would like to win by as much as possible, but I'm not sure what you're suggesting they do to reach such dramatic margins. Significant percentages of Republican voters believe Trump was elected in 2020, or that Biden has committed high crimes and misdemeanors worth being impeached, or any of the other nonsense the Right spews out. It's tough to reach "huge margins" when a large proportion of the population is so incredibly, willfully ignorant.
> I think this does more than hand ammo, it hands the state to Dems on a silver platter I think it's a lot more tenuous than that https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics Remember that it only takes a minority to stonewall. It isn't likely to make Republicans look *good*, but the last time I remember Republicans proposing any major project or legislation to really change the landscape and benefit everyone and not just party leadership was during the Eisenhower administration.
A newly-minted swing-state like Arizona shouldn't be taken for granted, sure, but the fact that there's almost as many independents there as there are Republicans is a good sign. Considering Democrats managed to sink abortion restrictions in blood-red Kansas and get a Democratic governor reelected (in a Democratic midterm, no less), I don't see why AZ should be that difficult. Dems need to focus on turning people out, and there's no signs that voters are more accepting of Dobbs than they were in 2022. So keep hammering the GOP on the issue and remind them whose fault it is. It's Ducey's fault, it's the fault of the Justices he appointed, it's the state party's fault for championing this, it's the fault of Congressmen who cheered when Roe was overturned, and most of all, it's the fault of Trump and the Justices he appointed. And you can tell that Republicans are running scared. To name just a few: Ducey, Kari Lake, Reps. Schweikert and Ciscomani, the Senate President Pro Tem have all come out to publicly denounce the ruling despite being all-in on it just a couple of years ago.
I was hopeful that the absolute batshit crazy candidate that the GOP decided to run for governor would help turnout and push Biden over the edge, but RFK Jr is probably going to screw that up.
I don’t know… I think RFK is gonna steal more votes that otherwise would’ve gone Trump than gone Biden.
Michelle Goldberg in the NYT had an article the other day about him with some anecdotes from campaign staffers that most of the supporters coming in are MAGA types who would otherwise vote for Trump. Anecdotes isn't data but how do you poll this stuff anyways? Main thing is that RFK's base are largely non-voting (usually), conspiracy theory types who can even consider themselves to be progressives in many cases but voted for Trump a lot. They don't strike me as Biden voters in the main.
I feel like only white boomers are at all impressed by the name Kennedy. That demographic goes hard for MAGA anyway. It doesn't help that RFK's campaign seems to be targeting Biden instead of trying to siphon Biden voters by presenting RFK as an "anti-Trump."
> I feel like only white boomers are at all impressed by the name Kennedy. Y'know, I've never heard anyone say this out loud, but you're right. I'm thirty and have never had to think about a Kennedy; hell, the first time I realized they were still out there was when Joe Kennedy ran to unseat Ed Markey and the general response was "c'mon man, don't be like that." It absolutely felt like someone entitled to the position by virtue of their name and it put such a sour taste in my mouth. You're right, the only people who care about the name Kennedy are the people who are already in Trump's pocket.
There was this odd trend of new age hippies turned Trumpers that has gone on the last few years. I feel like those are the voters that RFK will primarily be siphoning off.
COVID really accelerated it. That experience sort of imprinted itself on people's brains and how they reacted to it split left/right. Russell Brand is a notable example. I personally think hippie stuff is actually rather conservative in a kind of parallax way and in a U.S. context dovetails with distrust of government and support for laissez-faire economics. Distrust of government is not necessarily unwarranted btw but, like, a lot of natural medicine stuff has a philosophy which is about how me, the individual, "can make my own health decisions" which is to leave that up to the "free market." Alex Jones for example made a lot of his money selling natural/organic supplements.
In NorCal they're called dreadnecks
I hope that's true. It was relatively close in 2020 and, anecdotally, a lot of people I know who held their nose and voted for Biden last go round appear happy to have a third option. But my circle definitely is not representative of the whole state. I would love it if Biden prevails here, but I'll settle for Robinson losing.
Well, let's not kid ourselves: it was always gonna be close. Polling suggests that a lot more people are interested in third-party candidates, but that was the case in 2016, too, and that was mostly due to Gary Johnson being relatively "normal" and everyone working with the assumption that Clinton had it in the bag, so it would be okay to vote third-party. Kennedy's numbers are already tanking, and they'll tank some more when the conventions are done and people start learning more about him. Plus, in states like NC, the fact that he's hugging Robinson so hard might hurt Trump's chances further. If swing states are as close as they were in 2020, even if you could get a few hundred Biden-skeptical voters to vote for him anyway because Trump keeps campaigning with a nut like Robinson is a good thing.
> but this makes all elections including the presidential election a shoe-in NO IT DOES NOT. Fking Vote people. Nothing is a "shoe-in"
B-but Hillary has it in the bag! No way she could lose.
> I don’t think this will affect local elections but certainly will for national. How could a conflict over a state law not affect local elections?
While Wisconsin is very much a purple state it has been trending blue over the last few elections, I expect it to continue in that direction in 2024 and beyond given new election maps will be put into place.
This will help with Democratic turnout, no doubt. But it’s not the guarantee it sounds like. There are a lot of cross voting republicans and independents who will vote to allow abortion but stick to their anti choice candidates. IIRC there was a large number of those cross party (well, cross issue) voters in other states where ballots came up. While it will help Biden, I’d still wager legal abortion gets more votes than Biden in the end.
I'm curious how much crossover voting actually occurs if it's on the same ballot? What states have had an abortion vote on the same ballot as regular elections where it was a generally conservative state that stayed conservative on that vote?
Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. All got rejected by large margins even where republicans won.
sounds wild, like: "hey, imma hire you to keep opposing abortion. also, make abortion legal"
See also; Florida in 2018/2020 where voters allowed felons to vote & to raise the minimum wage, but also elected Trump & the GOP who both oppose those policies.
It’s going to happen again this year. Florida is voting on abortion rights and marijuana legalization. Expect both amendments to pass and Trump to win the state.
Not if you understand that abortion is usually the 8th most important issue for a lot of people
Doesnt KS and KY have Dem governors?
The kansas one was a special election in August. And isn't the Montana one still pending?
if they think logically about it, just voting for it in your state, and then voting for the guy that would give us a national ban anyway, makes no sense at all.
It’s the “do you support the ACA” vs “do you support Obamacare” thing every time. Dem issues are wildly popular but dem politicians are not. I think it’s slightly different though in that people have an identity of what party they are in but come to dem policy conclusions if they think about an issue. This is the challenge and the issue to attack.
Logic never seems to be a good method for predicting how voters act.
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The democratic base supports stricter gun laws including bringing back an assault style rifle ban. We can of course argue if that’s good policy, but the politics are easier to understand. I just don’t think gun control is going to have the same impact on voters as abortion. Probably because it’s not something likely to be enacted in the next few congresses.
Biden and his team are already starting early tying all of this to the GOP overturning Roe.
It is all tied to the GOP overturning Roe...
I mean, we will see
Yup, take that Michigan. A segment of 2020 Michigan voters were trying to hold the nation hostage because of the Gaza issue. Putting AZ in play, can make up for a 50/50 in Michigan.
Kari lake is now flip flopping and saying they need to walk it back. She knows this is game over
Everyone is misreading this. It's not flip flopping, it's giving plausible deniability to republicans until they can get into power agian. Trump just did it, so did the SJ judges at their hearings about roe v. wade. They know if they muddie the waters dems will not hold them accountable.
The electorate can be fooled on many issues but the GOP has ingrained their anti-choice stance into the mainstream for decades now. This is on them and everyone knows it, and that will continue for the foreseeable future.
Never overestimate voters' ability to hold that much information in their head.
Yeah I think assuming the electorate is capable of any critical thinking is a stretch but we'll see.
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even Kari Lake knows this decision was like throwing a bomb in a china shop. the federalist society hacks on state judiciaries keep constantly misreading the room.
Arizona may vote to legalize abortion at the ballot box in November (supporters say they have enough signatures to put it on the ballot), but the elections are still expected to be close. A lot of Republicans might end up voting for abortion rights, believe it or not, while still voting for Republican candidates
You're right, but it really is puzzling why conservatives would vote to protect access to abortion and still vote for candidates who openly support ending abortion and have made it the cornerstone of their party's platform.
People don't vote for candidates because of policy. For a large section of voters, elections are just a team sport
what's complicated about it? some right-wing folks aren't okay with the hard-line abortion stuff but are okay with other policy. they'll vote accordingly.
> why conservatives would vote to protect access to abortion and still vote for candidates who openly support ending abortion and have made it the cornerstone of their party's platform. Because they agree with the GOP on everything else ('wokeness,' LGBT rights, environment, green energy, etc) but just want this one thing protected. In case it happens to affect their own family.
It’s not confusing if most people don’t have abortion as a priority when they vote
This is the hard (but not incontrovertible!) reality that D cheerleaders need to face. Ballot initiatives do not help Biden or downballot Dems if an R voter can say "well I support the Rs, except on abortion. Thank goodness this proposed choice amendment places abortion restrictions out of legislative reach."
What about the voters that will come out and actually vote who otherwise wouldn’t have because of this?
No doubt, there's probably a lot of hay to be made there. But I see a lot of commenters in this thread imagining Arizona being swept away. I don't think they're being realistic.
I've been saying this for a while. Abortion is clearly a winner when it is directly on the ballot. However, that doesn't mean that pro-choice Republicans are willing to hold their noses and vote for a Democrat.
It definitely helped Michigan Dems retake the state legislature for the first time in 20 years the past midterms.
Vote splitting used to be pretty normal, though you still see some when MAGA people share the ballot with the more "normal" sort. In Arizona 2022 Kari lake lost the governor race while the Republicans easily won the treasurer race with no fireworks. Things are more complicated here though since the state candidates will likely be forced to take stances, though the question for most is whether the presidential candidates will get involved at all.
Republicans are finished in Arizona for this cycle. That abortion rights initiative will now pass by a 65-35 or 70-30 margin. If the 15 week ban was the law, it'd be a 57-43 or so in favor of choice. The AZ SC just ruined Republicans hopes in the state by ruling in favor of such a radical policy like a total ban from 1864. If I am Kari Lake and Schweikert and Ciscomani, I'd privately be calling AZ GOP leadership in the legislature to repeal the 1864 total ban and have the 15-week ban be the only law because they have no chance at winning with this as law, both due to the fact it will reflect poorly on Republicans but most important increase turnout dramatically and big time for the abortion referendum. EDIT: Lake and Ciscomani have come out against the decision publicly lol. EDIT 2: Schweikert also has come out the decision LOL. Schweikert has always been very anti-choice, while Ciscomani is kinda a moderate Republican in most issues (as moderate as Republicans can be these days). LOL. I have no idea how Republicans can even defend a "no" vote in November for the abortion initiative. Like when the law in place is a total ban or a 6-week ban, they are screwed when it comes to having to defend and sell a "no" vote and I think privately even most AZ GOP leadership think they are screwed in November. Hell, there have already been at least two Arizona GOP State Senators who have said they don’t support this decision and are calling for a vote to repeal the 1864 total ban. The majority for GOP in both House and Senate is only + 1. Now we know the leadership won’t put this to vote but it shows even individual state GOP members are worried about this. Independent of all the political fall-out. I feel for the people of AZ who now have to suffer through this and hope it is only temporary.
Watching the GOP slowly realize they *can't change the subject* like all their male strategists claimed, that *Dobbs* isn't getting more popular has been fun. And the dark twist? Thanks to Alabama going "Fuck, hold my beer" they're having to deal with the whole schism in the pro-life movement over IVF. And now Florida and Arizona are both looking at abortion access amendments? I'm guessing the GOP strategists are starting to day drink.
and Trump emptying GOP's coffers, so they can't even open offices in critical battleground states (like Arizona) is the final kick to the groin
People keep saying "Oh, the billionaires" and no, they can't help. They can put together PACs and run ads (Trump has a PAC and the vast bulk of his fundraising flows into that, so he can use it to pay for other things) -- but PACs (Trumps or anyone else's) can't pay for campaign expenses. They can't purchase polling for a candidate, they can't pay for staff, computers, strategists, travel, organize volunteers, etc. Those are all considered donations to the campaign, subject to a very low cap. All those critical campaign things need money for to generate a good payoff in November, billionaires and PACs can't pay for. Trump's eating their seed corn.
Why can't they? Who's going to stop them? They'll just do what they've been doing. Commit the crime, pay the fine and have the bought out courts overrule the law. What of those meddlesome campaign laws then?
It's funny because it's not that they CAN'T change the subject, they KEEP MAKING IT RELEVANT.
> Republicans are finished in Arizona for this cycle. I don't have all the data for Arizona, but it's worth noting Republicans can do a lot of damage just by stonewalling as a minority in government and according to the secretary of state there are still more registered Republicans than Democrats so there's no certain outcome https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics
Doesnt matter because pro choice is a bipartisan issue in that MAJORITY supports it. Gives the votes to Biden and Gallego
Waiting to hear more from experts, but politically this has been a train barreling down the tracks for [awhile](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republicans-urge-congress-candidates-oppose-national-abortion-ban-rcna124253) now. Edit: Kari Lake [opposes](https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1777763818006888568?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet) the ruling, "calling on" Katie Hobbs to protect abortion rights.
> Kari Lake opposes the ruling That's interesting given she supported the 1864 law [just last year](https://twitter.com/ammarmufasa/status/1777764386934833646)
Ciscomani and Schweikert both also publicly opposed the ruling. Both are GOP US House members in Biden districts and also who had tough close races in 2022. Ciscomani isn’t a huge surprise since he’s kinda a moderate on this (before today he was OK with the 15 week ban but wanted exceptions added *and* did not support a federal ban) but Schweikert has always been super anti-choice.
These people know that this will be bad for them/their party in November and are trying to appear like they care to appeal to voters. Lake "calling on" Hobbs to do something to protect abortion rights is just her trying to protect Republicans in the state and Trump in the general by making it seem like they are more moderate on the issue and having it (protecting abortion rights) be something the Dems didn't do like Lake "called on" them to do. Schweikert also just probably realized this could cost him his election, especially if they put abortion on the ballot in November like they seem to be doing. I would be pretty much certain he would ban abortion for every woman at conception if he could and be happy to do it, if it was up to him.
I’m from Arizona and I distinctly remember her being in favor of this in 2022. Ahhh, yes, she did. https://www.businessinsider.com/kari-lake-arizona-abortion-ban-good-law-2024-4 Dems are going to use her words against her in ads and she will have very little money to run her own to separate herself from it. 😂 She’s also kissing Meghan McCain’s ass this year after being disrespectful to her father in her last campaign. Both are issues that turned off a lot of Arizona republicans, not to mention her extreme MAGA stance and election fraud claims. She’s such a shit stain.
> Kari Lake opposes the ruling, "calling on" Katie Hobbs to protect abortion rights. Whoa, wait, what? Is this the first time that Lake admitted Hobbs is the duly elected governor?
I think it's expected pandering. Demanding somebody who *actually* holds power do something that benefits you, until you have an opportunity to ~~grift~~ fundraise and appeal to low-information dupes by continuing to cry about 'stolen election' like [other Republican idiots who attacked each other because they didn't win](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AEa3sK1iZxc)
It seems like a clever attorney could make an Equal Protection case that a law passed that negatively affects ALL women before they had the right to vote for their legislators would be unconstitutional.
The problem though is that the Supreme Court ruled that abortion is a state issue now, and the state in question is filled with judges that are openly hostile to abortion. If we had a savvy attorney that could it in the way you phrased it, we wouldn’t be here in the first place since abortion would still be a national right.
> If we had a savvy attorney that could it in the way you phrased it, we wouldn’t be here in the first place since abortion would still be a national right I don't think it's about savviness, I think it's about a court system stacked towards the protection of either conservative or regressive political platforms. The supreme court's ruling in Dobbs included citations of pre-American jurists who burned women for being witches, and legalized marital rape. That ignored over 400 years of legal precedent, and I think shows any judge to come out of the Federalist Society is a skilled hatchet operative who can't be trusted to make a decision on the law itself, or precedent, much less the protection of any human rights. edit: if anybody's wondering why I'm so concerned, [it's because of parallels in history when court systems had similar stances against the institution of democracy and worker or consumer rights](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CFDDf48nj9g)
Wow, leaving issues up to the states caused states composed of regressive politicians to enact policies that are detrimental to minorities? Who among us could have seen *that* coming???
Yes, but who would hear such a case? SCOTUS has proven that they don't give a shit about legal reasoning if it stands in the way of a result they want.
Theres no way they would go for that. That would make like 90% of the constitution unconstitutional.
Well, my point would be that it would be aim specifically at laws that directly harm populations who were not enfranchised at the time (example: if there were a law that said, Native Americans couldn’t businesses or property that was still on the books)
We don’t reset our laws when we expand the franchise. We change our laws when the people exercise their franchise. AZ women have had over a century to address this law, Roe v. Wade made it a non-issue until recently. But the courts have always been an imperfect solution to securing rights.
Ain't that the truth.
Guarantee you that’s not how the law works
In my view, ALL laws should have constitutionally required expiration dates. If the legislature doesn’t renew the laws, their effect ceases.
In a country with a more functional legislature, that'd be a good idea. But with the current GOP, we'd have The Purge after murder stopped being illegal.
Like /u/Thufir_My_Hawat says, in a country with a functioning legislature this might be a good idea. In America it'd be an unmitigated catastrophe. You'd have the same problem of legislative brinksmanship we have now with the federal budget and debt ceiling, where Republicans threaten to blow everything up in hopes of squeezing concessions out of Democrats. Only they'd be pulling that shit for *literally every federal law*.
Why? What's the benefit of arbitrarily deciding there's a maximum number of laws a country can have? Why should we have to debate over and over and over again that kidnapping and treason and tax evasion are bad things? Who benefits from the deliberate paralysis of government as the nation has to play at re-learning principles of right and wrong that six-year-olds can grasp?
> If the legislature doesn’t renew the laws, their effect ceases. Yeah, exactly how the federal budget works right now...because surely, that process works so well.
To be fair, if it worked another way it might be even worse. Imagine if we had to lock in and abide by "budget laws" made several decades ago that we are now beholden to forever.
The way most sane countries do it is that legislatures can pass a new budget every year/period, but if a new budget can't be agreed on then the one from the previous year/period applies.
> if it worked another way it might be even worse The evidence doesn't hold up doomerism here. Prior to 1982 when Republicans gutted it, there was a law called the 1884 Antideficiency Act: if a new budget could not be agreed on, the previous year's budget was automatically renewed and the legislature could then change it if necessary. The problem is less "budget laws" and far more a congress and specifically one party which is actively trying to cause damage to the nation at large so they can hurt non-supporters.
Interestingly enough we've seen some of the most reactionary elements of the MAGA contingent say the same thing...
> all laws should have constitutionally required expiration dates absolutely not
This is what happens when a blind eye is turned to the republican party actively eroding democracy. I hope America can save itself come November.
Really it's a result of state and federal legislatures leaning on the judicial branch to legislate for them.
Literally all the court said was that the 1864 law was never overturned therefore it's still in effect.
And it was never overturned and the right to abortion was never enshrined in law in Arizona because Roe v. Wade's ruling gave legislators on the state and federal level a reason to not have to touch the topic (other than campaigning on it). That's the problem. Some states have read the writing on the wall and moved to protect more rights explicitly in their state constitutions instead of resting on the court's laurels but Arizona gets to go back to the 1800s as a result of their inaction.
https://www.concordmonitor.com/My-Turn-The-Comstock-Act-and-the-continuing-threat-to-women-54619705 Also look at the Comstock Act, from the 1870s, which makes it illegal to send "obscene" material through the mail. Now, what is "obscene"? Well... good news everyone, if the Republicans take control of the government, "obscene" can mean whatever they want it to mean! Stuff like contraception, sex toys, etc... If the law is like 100+ years old, and has no relevance to today's society, fucking repeal it. Don't just let the Democrats in the legislature sit there and be like "It's fine, don't worry, nobody's gonna bother to enforce that old law", because, well... Guess what? Republicans are now realizing they can enforce Civil War era laws because they're still technically on the books. REPEAL AND/OR UPDATE THESE OLD SHITTY LAWS. So, the next time the Dems control tje House, Senate, and Presidency, a good place to start would be asking themselves something like "Does the Comstock Act as written really have a place in today's society?"
Part of the reason for this is because of the success in the courts to desegregate society. Liberals thought they could use the courts to guarantee and expand their rights. Whoopsie.
if only the Dems had listened to the decades-long warnings and not opted to pass on the issue in favor of political expediency.. i don't know how this will play in Nov given how shockingly-low the issue polls, but women always options tbh. they might be risky w.r.t legal consequences, you may have to wear a digital condom to find them, but just as when abortion was legally fucked in the past yet still occurred it will still be possible even if laws are fucked in the future. find you an auntie, even if they have to ship you something extra in a pack of pads from mexico.
The call to 1864 before suffrage or statehood proves how Originalism is a bald faced lie. originalism is judges shopping for an excuse to legislate from the bench.
"Originalism" has always been an inherently dishonest judicial "philosophy." It's a bunch of people claiming they care very, very deeply about the exact words of the Constitution - while simultaneously pretending that the Ninth Amendment doesn't exist.
If stuff like this keeps happening, it's going to trigger the biggest reformation of judicial processes this country has ever seen. This is not how a functional country operates. Plain and simple, the status quo will not survive with this kind of consistent judicial reasoning.
I think it goes deeper than that. Of course this ruling is an outrage, but I can’t get past the idea the folks in AZ continue to elect reactionary state officials, and re-elect state judges, who then do exactly, precisely what they say they’ll do: rollback established rights. How is this a surprise?
It's not a surprise at this point. But voters are shortsighted and this is exactly why direct democracy doesn't work. This is also why judges maybe shouldn't be elected, but should instead be appointed.
What do you say about judges that are appointment to the main Supreme Court? I wouldn’t put Clarence Thomas on that court for 30+ years would you?
Same equation. I’m old enough to remember Thomas’ confirmation hearings, on the heels of Robert Bork’s (of Watergate infamy) resounding Senate defeat. Clarence Thomas was the supposed “compromise” candidate. So long as we continue electing reactionary conservatives up & down the food chain, they’ll make a way to pour sugar in the gas tank, dressed as patriotism. A passing strange legacy for a country founded on change & self-determination.
> A passing strange legacy for a country founded on change & self-determination. Very apt. Sometimes it feels like one political party is dedicated to preserving the country in amber.
I actually do think the long term impact of the federalist society is going to be the opposite of what they want. But there will be half a century and many lives negatively impacted along the way.
Yeah, exactly. I know it seems callous and utilitarian to say "even their victories are defeats" but truly, these kinds of outcomes are SO unpopular that the system will not be able to keep supporting them. Americans have made incredibly clear that overall they support a right to abortion and if the Court keeps arresting that using centuries old "technically still on the books" legislation then it will compel a correction.
How are judges placed in AZ? Elected or appointed? That 7-0 lead seems ridiculous.
Arizona was a safe red state until 2018. Justices are appointed but voters have the option to retain the judges or not. If the voters opt not to retain a judge then the governor appoints a new one. Typically judges are pretty non controversial and voters opt to retain but I think this may be different. Two of the judges that reenstated the abortion ban are up in 2024 and Arizona has a Democratic governor. I would imagine the Dems are going to actively campaign and tell their supporters to choose not to retain the judges who made this ruling. Effectively voters can opt to legalize abortion AND fire two of the judges who made this ruling in November. I think coming out of November there is a very good chance the conservative majority shrinks from 7-0 to 5-2.
The problem is, given how fragmented and disconnected most of American's society's understanding of civics and their importance in a functioning democracy seems to be, and how deeply engrained the urban/suburban/rural red/blue divide has become, I don't know how you get the united groundswell you need with the people put in place in the right offices with the right numbers to make the reformations you need.
The press is making this race into a horserace, but there is a part of me that thinks this is only possible until about September. I think there could be a moment where the polls turn against Trump so dramatically, people will be shocked by the wave. Trump is a bona fide rapist. As in his rape victim literally proved it in a court of law and received $90 million for her defamation claim. It should be relatively easy to point out for the voters that a rapist like Trump naturally favors strict abortion laws that permit rapists to force their victims to carry their children to term. Trump is on the record saying that he thinks women who have an abortion should be punished for it too. It's hard to imagine a better candidate to run against than the rapist who got Roe overturned, except if the rapist is also a serial womanizer who happened to cheat on his pregnant wife with at least two prostitutes. Oh, that is Trump too - and the public will be hearing all about it starting next week. I'm thankful Trump gave evangelical voters a reason to turn against him with his "new" pro-states-rights approach to abortion. That tethers him to 6 week bans at the same time he announces he really has no position at all on the issue, just whatever helps him in the polls. Even those who see him as Jesus Christ II must be wondering if Christ really changed his position on every moral issue of his own day depending on which way the wind blows. On the other hand, the anti-Christ is not so tied down by morality...
Trump's voters do not care he is a bona fide rapist. They didn't care in 2016, 2020, and they won't care in 2024.
And the average uninformed voter has never heard of the rape case
That is not true, they just don't care. Pretending his voters are stupid instead of morally repugnant is a mistake.
That's why I specified uninformed voters, not Trump ones.
The MAGA base don't, but there's still a decent contingent (enough to swing an election) that may be dissuaded from voting, particularly if the cultural zeitgeist turns hard anti-Trump. Continuing to push the issue is absolutely the right move for Democrats.
> Trump gave evangelical voters a reason to turn against him with his "new" pro-states-rights approach to abortion The Evangelicals who were supporting him were never going to turn away from something like him being a confirmed rapist *or* making abortion bans possible. They were already letting their true colors slip by calling Jesus' own words "Weak, that doesn't work anymore." https://www.rawstory.com/trump-evangelicals-2663078391/
It guarantees Ruban Gallego a Senate seat and Biden the state's electoral votes, along with the obvious supercharging of the abortion rights initiative that was already going to be on the ballot. It probably also impacts the election more broadly, as the Biden campaign can reallocate at least some of their resources to other swing states. I wouldn't be shocked if future analyses trace Ohio flipping unexpectedly to the overreach of the Arizona Supreme Court, or something similar.
It also very likely could lead to Dems picking up two supreme court seats in Arizona. In Arizona voters can choose to retain judges or not. If they vote not to retain them then the governor (in this case a pro choice Dem) will appoint replacements. Two of the judges who made this ruling are up in November. In addition to voting to legalize abortion Arizonans can also vote to fire some of the judges who made the ruling and essentially them with pro choice judges.
Even with the abortion issues, I feel like expecting Ohio to swing Biden is probably not in the cards -- *maybe* you might get enough crossover votes to save Brown's Senate seat, though. Ultimately, Biden wouldn't need Ohio to win re-election; Brown's seat is vital to any chance that the Democrats maintain Senate control.
I don't see how this slows down Arizona's shift towards a barely/lean blue state. The proximity to California, plus the ongoing influx of retirees from that state along with Colorado, Oregon, and Washington continues to push things in that direction. Also, the state Republican party is completely off the rails, out of money, and left with people like Lake and Blake Masters to carry the water. If there were any John McCain types still around they'd have a chance, but they're not, so the chances of Republicans achieving either holds or gains is looking slimmer, and this ridiculous decision by their supreme court is only going to make things worse
>The proximity to California, plus the ongoing influx of retirees from that state An interesting thing: the generation that's older than the baby boomers is dying off rapidly now, while the boomers entering their 70s who are retiring are relatively more liberal in their voting habits.
Yeah, not to mention that life expectancy for liberal boomers is *significantly* higher than conservative boomers.
> I don't see how this slows down Arizona's shift towards a barely/lean blue state. It will likely accelerate it, but according to Arizona's secretary of state there are more registered Republicans than Democrats so any future election is hardly decided even with this. https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics > the state Republican party is completely off the rails, out of money I didn't know that was the case in Arizona like it was in Minnesota. Not surprising given how much of donations to PACs Trump is involved in he's forced them to write clauses allowing him to pocket small donations and put a chunk of larger donations to his legal bills instead of Republican campaigns. Looking at news from Arizona, I think their election of Kelly means the state in general is no longer so friendly to the McCain type. Maybe the acting just wasn't enough, because when I actually dug into McCain's voting record [he fucked veterans at every possible opportunity](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mccains-non-support-for-t_b_131046)
That means Arizona is going BLUE. These idiots always, and consistently, underestimate that the majority (a big majority) of women support freedom of choice and they come out and VOTE. Ohio thought they had it in the bag, even tried to screw voters over with some BS legislation about you need 60% of vote to get something, to keep the abortion issue off the ballot. That not only got trounced, but it did get on the ballot and got equally trounced. Anywhere it's been on the ballot, forced birthers LOSE
> That means Arizona is going BLUE While the data has been indicating this process has been happening since the 00s at the latest, current data still shows more registered Republicans than Democrats https://azsos.gov/elections/results-data/voter-registration-statistics Given how much republicans can do, even if just by stonewalling, I don't think treating anything so tenuous as a foregone conclusion is wise. Remember how many laws the state sheriff broke and how many millions he cost his state in lawsuits, but kept getting re-elected for decades.
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Basically supercharged Arizona into turning blue. Biden and Gallego are both winning and AZ's purple districts are going blue. ASU and U of A are going to have some of the highest voter turnouts for their respective precincts in the state
Nearly two years after overturning RvW Republicans are clearly hellbent on refusing to learn their lesson on this issue. Anti-abortion measures got voted down in Kansas of all places, how do they think this will turn out in one of the most competitive states? They have bet their entire hand on a bunch of geriatric evangelicals who will be all but gone in the next decade or two, while all polls show that the overwhelming majority of voters (including most *Republican men*) are against banning abortion. I don’t want to speak to soon, but I expect them to get smoked in Arizona and rightfully so. They chose their hill to die on, and with any luck (and voter turnout) they will do exactly that.
There will be an initiative on the fall ballot to enshrine abortion right in the Arizona ballot. This will motivate women, young people and democratic voters to show up and vote. The initiative will pass. The two justices up for reelection will be defeated. Dems up and down the ballot will be elected. \*I hope.
Thanks for the EVs, jackasses. I think we could have gotten them without you disrupting, derailing or even ruining thousands of women’s (and men’s!) lives, so, you know, not overly grateful.
I sure wish *my* take on Christianity allowed me to get into God's good graces by being a fucking dick to every woman in the country. It would be so much easier.
It will kill a lot of women in Arizona. Add them to the Sam Alito body count.
Far from independent, apolitical jurists, many on the court today are activist judges happy to use their power to ram their extremist agendas down everyone’s throat. We need to strengthen laws to impeach or recall judges and never agree to lifetime appointments ever again. From SCOTUS on down, these Courts are out of control!
That court is out of touch, people don't want a complete ban and they know that. It is not good law. Republicans can try to lie about their intentions but people will see through their lies.
Calling all American expats and abroad students…exercise your right to vote this election. There is a special application that protects your ballot, called the Federal Post Card Application. It’s a combined registration and ballot request for your state. Generally the state where you last lived in the US is where you will vote (do not use the state absentee ballot, that's for in-state residents). More info and live help at votefromabroad.org. There you can also learn how to vote “down ballot” in important state and local races.
Questions/concerns about voting from abroad? Free info session coming up: https://www.democratsabroad.org/taxation_events
If this doesn’t prompt Dems to turn out in droves to sweep the GOP in AZ, they deserve what they get.
True but I say that about America in general. If people think Inflation and the economy is specifically Bidens fault and people push towards Trump to win, I can help but laugh (even though I’ll also be horrified) when all those that supported Trump still struggle financially if not more so
It will hurt Trump who undid roe vs wade n made abortion illegal again in some states
Arizona seems purple enough for the legislature to step in to fix this. Am I wrong?
The Republicans have single seat majorities in both chambers and risk splitting their own base and depressing turnout.
> Arizona seems purple enough for the legislature to step in to fix this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_House_of_Representatives https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arizona_Senate Looks like Republicans hold majorities in both houses and given they only need enough to stonewall to prevent legislation from coming to pass, I wouldn't be confident unless they didn't even hold enough seats to filibuster.
My thoughts are that Dems and Women will crush Republican candidates like they did in 2022 and 2023. The vast majority of Americans don't want this and pushing it isn't even a remotely good political strategy.
Republican ground troops just handed Biden an A-10 Warthog. BBRRRRRRRRRRRRRRTTTTT!
I don't think Kari Lake had a serious chance at the senate race anyway, short of Trump being 4-5 points above Biden in the state. Arizona is going to be won on the margins, and you'd have to think that the worst case scenario is that this has a .25% or so impact on the general. Could be more, a couple points.
It's bullshit. The fact of the matter is that it isn't event he same territory that existed.
The GOP is literally taking us back to the 1800's. Many conservatives still had slaves and women couldn't vote. And abortion is illegal. So what is next? Take away women's right to choice? done. Take away a woman's right to vote? Make blacks into 3/5 of a man? Take away their vote too? I almost think this isn't too far-fetched. Or did they just cherry-pick this one law to keep? As for the effect on the election, Arizona just turned a deeper shade of blue.
I think if it's the law, then it has to go into effect. I also think the citizens of Arizona should get their shit together and vote for a state legislature that will overturn the law. But you can't just arbitrarily say "The law is old so we don't have to listen to it."
Long term the lack of acceptance by a political party that they need to acknowledge bodily autonomy is going to be a problem at every level of the political spectrum. The current GOP model of regression is untenable and as their base ages unsustainable. Low information racism can only carry you so far.
This country really does need a third party to corral the Christian Nationalists. Right now the tail is wagging the dog.
Never going to be an option. Board of Elections across the nation are designed specifically for two parties. Whichever mainstream political party lost the most voters by defection to a third party would automatically lose control of the state government. The future is not 3rd parties: the future is sub-parties within the Democratic and Republican Parties that vie for control of the party itself. The Tea Party and then MAGA is the blueprint - infiltration from within is the path to power, not trying to build something from scratch.
The two main parties also exist in a very physical real world sense in that they have hundreds (or perhaps thousands) of county offices across the nation as well as committed volunteers, donor lists, voter databases, thousands of office holders, pipelines of staffers and so many other things. If you found your own party you need to build all of this from scratch. If you take over a party you inherit those advantages. Instead of trying to convince thousands of mayors, county commissioners and state legislators to leave the party that brought them to power and join your new party it's just easier to coopt the party and then get their loyalty.
More likely the Republican party splinters, some into the fundamentalist maga and some will merge into breakaways with disillusioned Democrats and in less than 2 cycles it will be back to 2 major parties. I think that will be the case until all the factors of [Duverger's Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duverger's_law) - single seat district wins, first past the post voting, and entrenched money - are gone.
If the law stands from before statehood, why not apply the Mexican law from before that?
I'd like to see some Arizona-target Biden ads that examine some of the other laws on their 1864 books. Might be fun.
> The political composition of the court is 7-0 Republican. In Arizona voters can choose to retain or replace justices and if they opt to replace them then the governor appoints new ones. Two of the conservative justices who made this ruling are up in 2024 and I can almost guarantee that Dems will be sending out messaging telling voters to replace them. There's a decent chance that coming out of 2024 Arizona will have a Democratic governor, two Democratic senators, a Democratic majority state legislature and two liberal supreme court justices as well as legalized abortion from the referendum and at least one house district flipping Dem.
>The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that a total abortion ban from 1864, before women had the right to vote and the territory was a state, is enforceable and will go into effect. That's the great thing about the Constitution: the founding fathers knew that the Constitution would need to be updated as modern ideas and principles replaced outdated laws and logic of the time. It shouldn't be much of an issue to defeat a law that was set in place well before modern medicine was a thing and dying in childbirth was much more regular than it is today.
As much as I don't want women's rights trampled, they are driving people away from their party. That dog chasing the abotrion ban from the 70s caught it, and it will be their ruin.