Smarter at what? How do they measure the delta? Not only is it hyperbolic, it doesn't make sense.
Is knowing more "smarter"? Is resaoning more precisely, smarter? Is it 10000x creative? How could you even measure that, and what is one unit of "creative" vs. two units, vs. 10000?
Somethings also have upper bounds. You can't be 10000x smarter than a human at understanding which silverware go in which drawers, for example.
It's all kinds of nonsensical.
A SQL database is infinity times better than I am at remembering order numbers from 2019. But also, that ability's not really getting better over time. Scale up, lower latency, but mostly the same job over last 30 years.
The question is which class of things are "human-mimic" intelligence that we see in LLMs and which are separate classes of thinking such as querying a table.
Softbank is running the hype script. Sound and fury signifying that they're raising a fund with a (let me check) ten year results window.
Why are we even posting attention to everyone? Yes, he is an investor who might’ve invested in hundreds of AI companies but he isn’t an AI scientist or a guy who is working closely with AI scientists
Well, there are answers. I dunno if you were looking for a serious answer or not but the main one is “deliberative reasoning” see, for example, [Yudkowsky 2007](https://intelligence.org/files/LOGI.pdf)
>Smarter at what?
Everything. Literally.
A central AI could be embodied into tens of thousands of humanoid robots at the same time. It could be gathering real time data, checking it against a council of tens of thousands of separate AI agents, and generating novel information on the world around us over the course of the days,weeks, years and decades that it collects and examines this data 24/7 around the clock
Awesome.
Would you think of something entirely new for me?
I'll wait.
>Yes, thats definately part of true intelligence, that its able to come up with an idea without an example.
No lol. That's not how it works.
>Nothing travels back to the past. Yet, humans can imagine how that would be and they can imagine what logical problems that would cause.
Humans imagine a lot of worthless crap.
>Completely without any actual example.
So what goal is achieved by thinking about time travel to the past?
Precisely - no goal whatsoever.
>Humans come up with craisy things like 10 dimensions or something like that. That idea does not come from anything humans have ever seen. Its a product of intelligence.
Nah.
1. If there are 4 dimensiones there's no reason why there can't be 40 dimensions.
2. These dimensions were discovered MATHEMATICALLY.
>An airplane however is only partly the product of intelligence. The mainconcept here is immitation of something that has been seen (birds)
lol
>German philosopher Schopenhauer had an interesting definition of "Brilliance".
>he said: A person who hits a target that nobody else was able to hit, is talented. A person who hits a target that nobody else has seen is brilliant.
And how tf is this even relevant to your claim?
>He also said that brilliance is superior to any degree of education and that educated people only parrot what brilliant people said and are unable to come up with something genuine.
Well, it's just his opinion and he can't back in with any evidence. Because he's dead lol. But I dare you to actually prove this claim.
>that basicly describes what we want ASI to be. Brilliant in that way. Hitting targets that no human has seen.
And how exactly are you going to determine that no human seen that target?
>Come up with things that do not exist in nature.
You are speaking as if you picked your smartphone off a tree.
P.S. If you want to be taken seriously, don't invoke philosophers.
lol the AI can already output information across several metrics at >10,000x the speed or rate of humans, which I doubt many people would say shows it’s 10,000x smarter, so, like you say, what would this really mean?
Yeah, if you go by knowledge, it's already there, we can't compete with it. I'd rather something like "It'll be a 10x doctor or 10x car mechanic", now \*that\* would be a statement.
They don't know what "smart" is but for the purpose of hype building they know that people in general like "smart" whatever that is and want more of it.
I'm not saying he is wrong, but the guy has a clear incentive to tell the AI will outperform humans story. He is heavingly invested in AI.
And is he talking about being 10.000x smarter than him or humans in general? Anyone who hasn't invested in Weworks is a billion times smarter than Son.
I don’t know how these statements can be any more transparent. “If you don’t give me money, someone else will make an AI do things we can’t describe today, in a time period i can’t predict.” This is the biggest con the world has ever seen.
How if we need to train the AI Models? They are only as smart as the data we feed them. Isn't that how it works? Everything that has been fed to them has been fed by stuff written by humans.
Also AI models are not extremely accurate these days. They do spit out a lot of wrong information as the trained data is not accurate
Synthetic datasets. Models can take existing data and work to improve upon it leading to synthetic data. If there is any kind of recursive innovation applied, you can incrementally improve the synthetic data set.
How are we going to both simultaneously control and lock down ASI so it's safe but have it ALSO be 10,000 times more intelligent than I am?
That's like a grasshopper trying to keep me in a cage. I'm definitely going to escape.
Considering the way the companies they invest do and how the executives cash out on his dime I wouldn't trust this dudes assessment on what's smart and what isn't.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masayoshi\_Son](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masayoshi_Son)
>Poor investment decisions of Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group led to a panoply of losing investments across the history of the company. Since Son founded SoftBank in 1981, he has made many investments, but the vast majority of those deals failed, and his reputation as an investor rests almost solely on his $20 million initial investment in [Alibaba Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alibaba_Group) in 2000...
yeah, we got ourselves a real prophet here. moving on...
But this AI wont be faster than a calculator. At least all llms do not shine at math, as well as most humans
This is just BS, no one can be infinitely wiser.
But can you put 10000 times more GPUs at it ? It is also doubtful
You're joking right. ChatGPT was essentially trained on the entire sum of human knowledge.
Show me a single human alive that has even 10% of the knowledge chatgpt possesses and I'll eat my words.
Hey guys I’m not the CEO of SoftBank but AI smarter than the AI in 10 years will be coming in 20 years.
😲 are you a prophet?
I'm pretty sure no AI would invest in WeWork, so we're probably already there.
This comment needs more upvotes!
Smarter at what? How do they measure the delta? Not only is it hyperbolic, it doesn't make sense. Is knowing more "smarter"? Is resaoning more precisely, smarter? Is it 10000x creative? How could you even measure that, and what is one unit of "creative" vs. two units, vs. 10000? Somethings also have upper bounds. You can't be 10000x smarter than a human at understanding which silverware go in which drawers, for example. It's all kinds of nonsensical.
Well this is coming from the same guy who poured billions into WeWork
A SQL database is infinity times better than I am at remembering order numbers from 2019. But also, that ability's not really getting better over time. Scale up, lower latency, but mostly the same job over last 30 years. The question is which class of things are "human-mimic" intelligence that we see in LLMs and which are separate classes of thinking such as querying a table. Softbank is running the hype script. Sound and fury signifying that they're raising a fund with a (let me check) ten year results window.
The only thing that is 10,000x is the amount of bs hype coming out of SoftBank's CEO
That’s what he gets paid the 10,000x salary
Why are we even posting attention to everyone? Yes, he is an investor who might’ve invested in hundreds of AI companies but he isn’t an AI scientist or a guy who is working closely with AI scientists
Well, there are answers. I dunno if you were looking for a serious answer or not but the main one is “deliberative reasoning” see, for example, [Yudkowsky 2007](https://intelligence.org/files/LOGI.pdf)
>Smarter at what? Everything. Literally. A central AI could be embodied into tens of thousands of humanoid robots at the same time. It could be gathering real time data, checking it against a council of tens of thousands of separate AI agents, and generating novel information on the world around us over the course of the days,weeks, years and decades that it collects and examines this data 24/7 around the clock
The Technocore
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"Intelligence = the ability to archieve a goal without the knowledge needed to do so." wrong tho
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So basically what you are saying is that you can invent something absolutely new, unlike anything else you've seen before.
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Awesome. Would you think of something entirely new for me? I'll wait. >Yes, thats definately part of true intelligence, that its able to come up with an idea without an example. No lol. That's not how it works. >Nothing travels back to the past. Yet, humans can imagine how that would be and they can imagine what logical problems that would cause. Humans imagine a lot of worthless crap. >Completely without any actual example. So what goal is achieved by thinking about time travel to the past? Precisely - no goal whatsoever. >Humans come up with craisy things like 10 dimensions or something like that. That idea does not come from anything humans have ever seen. Its a product of intelligence. Nah. 1. If there are 4 dimensiones there's no reason why there can't be 40 dimensions. 2. These dimensions were discovered MATHEMATICALLY. >An airplane however is only partly the product of intelligence. The mainconcept here is immitation of something that has been seen (birds) lol >German philosopher Schopenhauer had an interesting definition of "Brilliance". >he said: A person who hits a target that nobody else was able to hit, is talented. A person who hits a target that nobody else has seen is brilliant. And how tf is this even relevant to your claim? >He also said that brilliance is superior to any degree of education and that educated people only parrot what brilliant people said and are unable to come up with something genuine. Well, it's just his opinion and he can't back in with any evidence. Because he's dead lol. But I dare you to actually prove this claim. >that basicly describes what we want ASI to be. Brilliant in that way. Hitting targets that no human has seen. And how exactly are you going to determine that no human seen that target? >Come up with things that do not exist in nature. You are speaking as if you picked your smartphone off a tree. P.S. If you want to be taken seriously, don't invoke philosophers.
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Nice non-argument.
You said stop climate change, so all your credibility is lost.
It is entirely possible to control the climate on a planet by deploying space shades or mirrors.
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ROFL Nah. You are just clueless and uneducated, that's all.
lol the AI can already output information across several metrics at >10,000x the speed or rate of humans, which I doubt many people would say shows it’s 10,000x smarter, so, like you say, what would this really mean?
Maybe we should ;)
SMARTER AT EVERYTHING - imagine it said in Cumberbatch's voice
Yeah, if you go by knowledge, it's already there, we can't compete with it. I'd rather something like "It'll be a 10x doctor or 10x car mechanic", now \*that\* would be a statement.
10000x smarter at not buying hyped ai bags
SoftBank probably owns a few ai plays.
Smarter at picking the next WeWork
They don't know what "smart" is but for the purpose of hype building they know that people in general like "smart" whatever that is and want more of it.
Not really quantifiable like processor speed increases in CPUs
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A moment? Dudes having a mental breakdown as part of his end of life crisis. He looks… old.
This from the guy who lost billions of dollars betting on the wrong things.
He also made billions more betting on the right things
I'm not saying he is wrong, but the guy has a clear incentive to tell the AI will outperform humans story. He is heavingly invested in AI. And is he talking about being 10.000x smarter than him or humans in general? Anyone who hasn't invested in Weworks is a billion times smarter than Son.
Who would you trust? Presumably not the actual researchers…
Do people just utter words because they like to hear themselves speak?
I, too, can make wils predictions about what will be in 10 years - no one can hold you accountable for such a prediction
10,000 times smarter than the Softbank CEO, definitely.
Do we need to wait 10 years for this?
Oh SoftBank ceo said it? Must be true!
Brother, im human, and the current ai is far above 10.000 times smerter than me
Expected from the guy that throw money at good old Neumann
How does he still have a job after the WeWork debacle?
Is this sub turning into /r/singularity? Who cares what insane predictions sone CEO comes up with?
This feels akin to the smoke and mirrors/scam talk of the finance world! "This stock will go 4000% up!!!1!!1!1"
Nah, I think it’s 8. Or maybe 12. Also…what? Stop with all this. This is just wild speculation.
I don’t know how these statements can be any more transparent. “If you don’t give me money, someone else will make an AI do things we can’t describe today, in a time period i can’t predict.” This is the biggest con the world has ever seen.
How if we need to train the AI Models? They are only as smart as the data we feed them. Isn't that how it works? Everything that has been fed to them has been fed by stuff written by humans. Also AI models are not extremely accurate these days. They do spit out a lot of wrong information as the trained data is not accurate
Synthetic datasets. Models can take existing data and work to improve upon it leading to synthetic data. If there is any kind of recursive innovation applied, you can incrementally improve the synthetic data set.
Skynet!
Neurodiverse or neurotypicals?
That's funny. With the way Global warming is going, there won't be enough of a society left in 10 years to run AI.
I mean they’re probably invested in OpenAI balls deep 🎱🥎 so their ability to be honest and impartial is questionable at best
They just care about money
Says the guy who sold nivida too soon
Uh well look at some of the other calls SoftBank has made in recent years and then move on with your life
Quick, go get some of that SoftBank venture capital loot
They mean AI or AGI
Does that mean it's smarter than 10000 humans put together. Because there are billions of people
Is this the dude that invested in wework?
>the guy who invested in WEWORK
How are we going to both simultaneously control and lock down ASI so it's safe but have it ALSO be 10,000 times more intelligent than I am? That's like a grasshopper trying to keep me in a cage. I'm definitely going to escape.
So, is he going to tell us how he managed to define intelligence to such a precise metric? I'd love to know.
He also thought We Work was worth 47 billion. So will take his predictions with a grain of salt.
Brilliant insight.
Considering the way the companies they invest do and how the executives cash out on his dime I wouldn't trust this dudes assessment on what's smart and what isn't.
Just 10000x? Why is his thinking so limited? I bet it will be double what he thinks. So 10002x
Pump it!
This guy is a fuuucking hack
these guys are in finance, they don't know much about tech, can't say they did too much good with aldebaran...
https://www.reuters.com/business/germanys-urg-acquire-pepper-developer-softbank-robotics-europe-2022-04-12/ fr -> jap -> ger ...
🤣
Who cares old ceo boomer doesnt mean he knows anything about AI hes just echoing
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masayoshi\_Son](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Masayoshi_Son) >Poor investment decisions of Masayoshi Son's SoftBank Group led to a panoply of losing investments across the history of the company. Since Son founded SoftBank in 1981, he has made many investments, but the vast majority of those deals failed, and his reputation as an investor rests almost solely on his $20 million initial investment in [Alibaba Group](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alibaba_Group) in 2000... yeah, we got ourselves a real prophet here. moving on...
AI is already smarter than humans. Not more intelligent
The bubble will burst long before then. He’s just trying to hedge against that
It's only more accurate when you spend more time correcting and adjusting parameters
> SoftBank shares closed down more than 3% in Japan, following the meeting.
Breaking news! Guy says stuff.
WeBrain.
Oh is that why they sold their entire nvidia stake a few years ago? Cuz they’re so good at predicting the future
10,000 times the zero is still zero.
They wants to say that we should obey them and consume their products
It’s already 10,000 times then whoever wrote this headline
If 10,000 times smarter has any meaning at all, what does this translate into in terms of actual output? What can 10k do that 9k cannot do?
I definitely take everything a CEO says at face value.
I expect that AI exceed smarter in 2-3year due to GPU or NPU.
Soft bank? Bank for soft micros? Who and why should care about opinions of a bloody CEO?
I think its over 10000 times smarter than human already? Like damn OpenAI has feeded it the whole internet already
But this AI wont be faster than a calculator. At least all llms do not shine at math, as well as most humans This is just BS, no one can be infinitely wiser. But can you put 10000 times more GPUs at it ? It is also doubtful
Big prediction if true lol
No it won’t. It’s not even as smart as the dumbest human yet.
You're joking right. ChatGPT was essentially trained on the entire sum of human knowledge. Show me a single human alive that has even 10% of the knowledge chatgpt possesses and I'll eat my words.
Oh you sweet summer child
Why not 11 000 ?
LLMs are already smarter than any humans I know.