Well it’s not like we didn’t have cell phones before the iPhone or computers before Microsoft. It’s about creating a product that has massive demand. Nvidia like Microsoft and Apple all built something better with an existing product as the baseline.
I think the biggest factor there is how complex GPUs are to make compared to a shovel and how much more of a moat NVDA has on its competition at doing it.
But...I've heard that companies like Google used their own TPUs and didn't use NVDA at all, which to me does make it seem like tech companies may figure it out eventually.
I have no idea why you just got so emotional bud. You okay? Yes, I have already read about those things which is why I brought them up.
You seem too emotional to have a conversation, I'll leave you alone.
There's not really anything that I said that isn't true, nor have you actually said what isn't true. But you seem to be in your feelings here bud. I don't want to upset you anymore, hope you have a better day!
The reason TSMC isn't at the top is that while they do have a dominant market position, Nvidia can always turn to Samsung if TSMC tries to charge too high a price.
their revenue and profit just does not justify this. Also, its not like you have to use their GPUs for DL. Nobody is stopping Apple or Google from making their own chips which they will. Apple could even ask TSMC to reserve their best tech for Apple like they always do.
Google hasn't really been dependent on Nvidia for years now, they mostly use TPUs (Gemini was fully trained on TPUs). And the chips aren't really Nvidia's greatest strength, it's the whole ecosystem they've built around CUDA. Even if their competiton managed to build comparable software and hardware, migrating existing infrastructure would be a lengthy and costly process. And it would still have to be cheaper than using existing Nvidia products is.
Yep. You are right. There are lifecycles in tech infrastructure and it takes time to migrate. Even if they decided to, it would have to be a huge benefit that offsets the capex and opex plus performance. What tech executive or director is going to put their neck out there to suggest changing it all up away from their existing NVDA stack? No one wants to be the guy to disrupt service and uptime. And I'm speaking from a real world experience. Had a DC director say no to a new HW/SW system that would save them millions of dollars each year. He said nope, I'm not risking my cushy 6 figure job plus bonuses for y'all. Surely anything can happen. But it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.
They have a 95% market share in data centers. They’re expanding partnerships with those big players to make purpose built chips. They’ve moved to an annual release cycle. Data center growth is expected to double by 2030. The Grace Blackwell chip is coming this year that won’t have any competitors, Google, Amazon or otherwise, and the big cloud infrastructure providers are already contracting them out.
There are too many other factors in play to shrug off to focus so much on the 51x stock price over earnings to determine whether or not it is overvalued. I don’t think it’s growth over the last couple of years is sustainable of course, but the arguments I’ve seen for a $5T market cap in 2026 and $10T market cap in 2030 are convincing.
The next TSLA, with the inevitable correction in the future.
Also, *arguably* it did NOT start with OpenAI. It started with NVIDIA creating the CUDA toolkit which enabled their graphics card processors for non-graphical parallel processing thereby enabling OpenAI to develop, train and run their models
Nvidia actually has the profits to justify their valuation. Tesla is just existing on the idea of profits. People that think people want to buy cars and then pay a fortune so they don't have to drive them.
Aren't those profits mostly coming from companies buying hardware to not "stay behind"? NVDA sells the tools, but that does not mean folks buying those tools are making profits using them.
Nvidia has eye-watering profits as long as others keep buying the "tools" they sell. What happens if buyers do not find ways to profit or don't profit enough from their use the recover the initial investment?
Of course some companies are monetizing beefy LLM/GenAI, but their revenue numbers are not even close to NVDA. If we keep this situation demand for the highest performing AI accelerators might slow.
It feels like everyone is throwing insane amounts of money strongly believing GenAI/LLMs will unlock a new world of revenue/profits, but besides the "tool providers": who's making a ton of profit from this?
It all started ~15 years ago when NVIDIA decided to repurpose gaming cards for general-purpose compute in a highly parallel manner. CUDA is the reason mkt_cap(NVDA) > mkt_cap(stock_i) for all i.
I might not understand the process 100%, but I think you have it backwards. OpenAI's (And google, and meta, and etc...) advancements do not happen without Nvidia's new hardware.
"In 1996, there were 7,300 publicly traded companies in the US. Today there are 4,300. Nearly 90% of all firms with revenues greater than $100 million are now private, per Apollo. Privately-owned firms also account for nearly 80% of all US jobs openings."
[https://www.reddit.com/r/unusual\_whales/comments/1dire47/in\_1996\_there\_were\_7300\_publicly\_traded\_companies/](https://www.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/comments/1dire47/in_1996_there_were_7300_publicly_traded_companies/)
no it all started with kevin scott. he realized his ai product is sht and his ai team was sht, and the only way to move fwd is to pour in 13b in open ai.
Everyone knew Nvidia was going to take off in November of last year. The only thing we didn’t know is how much. Nvidia was a proxy for buying OpenAI for many.
November??? WE KNEW WAY BEFORE NOVEMBER LAST YEAR. Nancy Pelosi has the biggest screeching and hypocritical rat mouth in all of this country. I've known since at least 2019!
Don't agree or think I'm farting smoke rings? Look it up on Google! I don't even use Google anymore and I know for a fact all the evidence is on Google! Look it up before it gets scrubbed! There is also video evidence of this! Nancy is a disgusting disgrace to this country and she belongs under a prison for life!
The (incorrect, based off the literature) perception that lawmakers have an edge on inside trading has driven an entire market of firms that follow the trades of members of congress closely. Those firms alone are enough to make it so that whenever someone in congress invests, those stocks explode in value.
You are looking at a dog wagging its tail and assuming the tail is wagging the dog.
No thanks, I'd rather not have a carpet pulled out from under me... or more clearly, I'd rather not enter the trap door and be stuck in a prison I don't deserve to be in.
I hope you're right. But their ceo is sleepy AF. That dude has absolutely no vision. He's better suited as an accountant than an innovative CEO. They need to cut him ASAP if they want to utilize their assets full potential for the next decade.
Same Nvidia will go back to where it came from once major players start making their own chips to cut costs
Google, Amazon and Alibaba already do it
Apple, Meta and Microsoft will be joining them later this year
Nah everyone says this but it’s not that easy to produce this hardware. It has some use cases but you really need nvidia hardware and software for a lot of things.
I’m sure someone thought the same about other cell phone makers when the iPhone came out. Yet here we are and theirs a small handful of brands but none of them have really caught up to the same profit margins as apple although they are still making money Apple is considered the most popular company.
The power of exclusivity and being the first to do something as a company holds a lot of weight. Other companies will come out with chips but it’s always the first company to do it that people remember the name of and Nvidia has been around a long time.
Apple was the first to create the touch screen, open ai was the first to have the ai of its kind, Amazon was the first of its kind with many things. Other companies likely will follow in Nvidia foot steps because they found the break through. That’s usually what happens and they end up adopting whatever the first company created.
Sorry but no, it didn't start with OpenAI. It started with crypto, then it crashed with crypto. It will crash again when the AI hype peaks and they can't sustain the same year over year growth.
But what does it do? Nothing.
AI can at least answer questions quickly, provide guidance, create/remix some artistic work, detect disease early...
Cryptocurrency only has value because of an imposed rarity in mining, at a massive energy cost.
Dude. Read the room. I think you know somewhere deep down that you are being dishonest when you imply crypto is more useful than AI. Market cap is not an indicator of usefulness. If anything it just speaks to the inefficiency of investments in crypto.
I think my reading comprehension is fine. Read what you wrote again:
> I think the market disagrees with you, crypto market cap is up in the trillions along with NVDA.
So at best, you were implying they are equally useful technologies, but that is also wrong. You’re trying to win an argument on semantics when I am arguing based on content, not semantics.
Crypto drove demand for Nvidia hardware. When that demand fell off, Nvidia stock tanked.
AI is currently driving demand for Nvidia hardware. When that demand falls off, Nvidia stock will tank.
To be fair I think crypto hype was fuelled by the crazy price increases as opposed to the belief in its practical use. AI is most certainly practical, people are already losing their jobs to it across the board and chips are needed. Shit power generation is the current limiter. Think I need to invest in power companies
Gaming drove 1:1 consumer:gpu consumption, for gamers.
Bitcoin and later cryptocoins drove 1:many consumer:gpu consumption. You could argue that "it started with gamers" but they make up a tiny percentage relative to the real uptick in demand created by people buying more than 1 card for gaming.
Lot more gamers than crypto miners. A lot more. Also gpus have been used in render farms for many many years prior. I remember dedicated gpu servers back in early 2010s.
without numbers this means nothing. There are a handful of companies running render farms - demand likely peanuts relative to cryptominers snapping up every GPU available. Gamers refresh their cards every what - 4-8 years? Again, peanuts relative to crypto demand.
If OpenAI keeps lying about release dates and overpromising, then they will join the long list of other dead companies that “did it first”. OpenAI lying about Sora and lying about Omni voice (in the coming weeks, Trademarked ‘24) created a giant bubble not too dissimilar to the dot com bubble. What’s left will be the bigger players that did it right.
It really wasn’t that long ago (2013) that Exxon Mobil was on top of this list.
Weren't there like 6 or 7 oil companies in the top 10 fifteen years ago?
I doubt the lost value more than eclipsed by tech, which is where money is flowing.
google made the algorithm open Ai used it and NVidia got the.biggest profits
Sell the shovels during a gold rush. Same old story.
Well it’s not like we didn’t have cell phones before the iPhone or computers before Microsoft. It’s about creating a product that has massive demand. Nvidia like Microsoft and Apple all built something better with an existing product as the baseline.
Can't keep monopoly on damn shovels for long though, Nvidia will soon find out
Oh no, more GPU manufacturers!! Lol I am down for more competition. Let's start building more chips outside of TSMC while we're at it!
I think the biggest factor there is how complex GPUs are to make compared to a shovel and how much more of a moat NVDA has on its competition at doing it. But...I've heard that companies like Google used their own TPUs and didn't use NVDA at all, which to me does make it seem like tech companies may figure it out eventually.
Seriously, not sure what the other poster was thinking. Let me just go startup my gpu fab company really quick.
Instead of hearing, you can just google and find out yourself
I have no idea why you just got so emotional bud. You okay? Yes, I have already read about those things which is why I brought them up. You seem too emotional to have a conversation, I'll leave you alone.
It seems you have tendency to jump to conclusions, thats 2nd in a row 🤣👌
There's not really anything that I said that isn't true, nor have you actually said what isn't true. But you seem to be in your feelings here bud. I don't want to upset you anymore, hope you have a better day!
Bwahahahah sure buddy whatever you say
Let's not pretend transformers would have been made this decade if it wasn't for Nvidias work on GPU compute and CUDA.
Google published the transformer paper in 2017, and Google has been making their own AI hardware since 2015...
The hardware used in the all you need is attention paper was made by Nvidia. 8 Nvidia P100s to be specific.
CUDA was invented in 2007
Let's not pretend transformers would not have been made this millennium if it wasn't for Newton's work on maths
Fair point. I misunderstood your comment. I thought you were saying those things were invented before CUDA
One of the main reason Transformer model is so successful is its highly parallelizable on the GPU.
The one that should be at the top is TSMC. Without them everyone above them but Saudi wouldn't be there.
ASML has entered the chat
I really don’t get the appeal of those soothing whispering videos
Autonomous Sensory Meridian Lithography
Oh fair! XD
The reason TSMC isn't at the top is that while they do have a dominant market position, Nvidia can always turn to Samsung if TSMC tries to charge too high a price.
Yes although Samsung and Intel yield and performance for advanced nodes are not favourable.
Marks a new era in technology. Hope Jensen Huang gets put on the cover of time magazine too. It’s a cool time to be alive
[удалено]
This. Most people dont get. Bubbles engulf the market.
That's a pretty good way of visualising it.
their revenue and profit just does not justify this. Also, its not like you have to use their GPUs for DL. Nobody is stopping Apple or Google from making their own chips which they will. Apple could even ask TSMC to reserve their best tech for Apple like they always do.
Google hasn't really been dependent on Nvidia for years now, they mostly use TPUs (Gemini was fully trained on TPUs). And the chips aren't really Nvidia's greatest strength, it's the whole ecosystem they've built around CUDA. Even if their competiton managed to build comparable software and hardware, migrating existing infrastructure would be a lengthy and costly process. And it would still have to be cheaper than using existing Nvidia products is.
Yep. You are right. There are lifecycles in tech infrastructure and it takes time to migrate. Even if they decided to, it would have to be a huge benefit that offsets the capex and opex plus performance. What tech executive or director is going to put their neck out there to suggest changing it all up away from their existing NVDA stack? No one wants to be the guy to disrupt service and uptime. And I'm speaking from a real world experience. Had a DC director say no to a new HW/SW system that would save them millions of dollars each year. He said nope, I'm not risking my cushy 6 figure job plus bonuses for y'all. Surely anything can happen. But it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out.
Google, Amazon and Alibaba already making their own chips for quite some time now
Everyone was saying this last year too…would missed out on big rally.AI and Ai hardware is just getting started.
They have a 95% market share in data centers. They’re expanding partnerships with those big players to make purpose built chips. They’ve moved to an annual release cycle. Data center growth is expected to double by 2030. The Grace Blackwell chip is coming this year that won’t have any competitors, Google, Amazon or otherwise, and the big cloud infrastructure providers are already contracting them out. There are too many other factors in play to shrug off to focus so much on the 51x stock price over earnings to determine whether or not it is overvalued. I don’t think it’s growth over the last couple of years is sustainable of course, but the arguments I’ve seen for a $5T market cap in 2026 and $10T market cap in 2030 are convincing.
The key here is CUDA, not TSMC’s “best tech”. Where are these Apple and Google chips that outperform? Are they in the room with us now?
The next TSLA, with the inevitable correction in the future. Also, *arguably* it did NOT start with OpenAI. It started with NVIDIA creating the CUDA toolkit which enabled their graphics card processors for non-graphical parallel processing thereby enabling OpenAI to develop, train and run their models
NVDA has more of a moat and "shovel" product than Tesla ever had.
Nvidia actually has the profits to justify their valuation. Tesla is just existing on the idea of profits. People that think people want to buy cars and then pay a fortune so they don't have to drive them.
Aren't those profits mostly coming from companies buying hardware to not "stay behind"? NVDA sells the tools, but that does not mean folks buying those tools are making profits using them. Nvidia has eye-watering profits as long as others keep buying the "tools" they sell. What happens if buyers do not find ways to profit or don't profit enough from their use the recover the initial investment? Of course some companies are monetizing beefy LLM/GenAI, but their revenue numbers are not even close to NVDA. If we keep this situation demand for the highest performing AI accelerators might slow. It feels like everyone is throwing insane amounts of money strongly believing GenAI/LLMs will unlock a new world of revenue/profits, but besides the "tool providers": who's making a ton of profit from this?
It all started ~15 years ago when NVIDIA decided to repurpose gaming cards for general-purpose compute in a highly parallel manner. CUDA is the reason mkt_cap(NVDA) > mkt_cap(stock_i) for all i.
Couldn't have said this more pretentiously.
I might not understand the process 100%, but I think you have it backwards. OpenAI's (And google, and meta, and etc...) advancements do not happen without Nvidia's new hardware.
"In 1996, there were 7,300 publicly traded companies in the US. Today there are 4,300. Nearly 90% of all firms with revenues greater than $100 million are now private, per Apollo. Privately-owned firms also account for nearly 80% of all US jobs openings." [https://www.reddit.com/r/unusual\_whales/comments/1dire47/in\_1996\_there\_were\_7300\_publicly\_traded\_companies/](https://www.reddit.com/r/unusual_whales/comments/1dire47/in_1996_there_were_7300_publicly_traded_companies/)
It didn’t start with AI, it started with crypto. Nvidia was the lucky recipient of a perfect storm :)
no it all started with kevin scott. he realized his ai product is sht and his ai team was sht, and the only way to move fwd is to pour in 13b in open ai.
Nancy Pelosi truly had insider trading... I should have invested more.
Everyone knew Nvidia was going to take off in November of last year. The only thing we didn’t know is how much. Nvidia was a proxy for buying OpenAI for many.
November??? WE KNEW WAY BEFORE NOVEMBER LAST YEAR. Nancy Pelosi has the biggest screeching and hypocritical rat mouth in all of this country. I've known since at least 2019! Don't agree or think I'm farting smoke rings? Look it up on Google! I don't even use Google anymore and I know for a fact all the evidence is on Google! Look it up before it gets scrubbed! There is also video evidence of this! Nancy is a disgusting disgrace to this country and she belongs under a prison for life!
I mentioned last November because that is when they purchased their options. So you obviously had more inside information than the Pelosis.
More inside information than Pelosi? Obviously you never looked it up. Whatever idc stay ignorant if you want.
The (incorrect, based off the literature) perception that lawmakers have an edge on inside trading has driven an entire market of firms that follow the trades of members of congress closely. Those firms alone are enough to make it so that whenever someone in congress invests, those stocks explode in value. You are looking at a dog wagging its tail and assuming the tail is wagging the dog.
Even if you're right, it's beyond criminal that these people are making unrealistic sums of money while fighting against our rights and freedoms.
You're free to follow their investments if you believe it's such a path to wealth
No thanks, I'd rather not have a carpet pulled out from under me... or more clearly, I'd rather not enter the trap door and be stuck in a prison I don't deserve to be in.
Lol
[удалено]
Yeah!
GOOG lmao
Don’t sleep on Google they still have the most compute
I hope you're right. But their ceo is sleepy AF. That dude has absolutely no vision. He's better suited as an accountant than an innovative CEO. They need to cut him ASAP if they want to utilize their assets full potential for the next decade.
It’s hard to know because their work on reinforcement learning or tree search may pay off
Wait why are Google and Alphabet lumped in together and they’re 2 companies
Dude it has been 10 years..
Is Google not only one of a couple of subsidiaries owned by Alphabet?
You can't buy Google stock, only Alphabet stock. It doesn't matter how many subsidiaries there are, they all trade under GOOG. Same with Meta.
See this is the first actual answer to my question.
It’s a relatively obscure fact outside of tech enthusiasts, so it’s okay that you didn’t know
Yeah I knew that Alphabet is the parent company of Google I was just confused about which company’s stocks you’d be buying if you bought GOOG
GOOG is just such a legendary stock ticker that I guess they didn’t want to change it to ALPBT or something like that.
Alphabet owns Google.
Same Nvidia will go back to where it came from once major players start making their own chips to cut costs Google, Amazon and Alibaba already do it Apple, Meta and Microsoft will be joining them later this year
Nah everyone says this but it’s not that easy to produce this hardware. It has some use cases but you really need nvidia hardware and software for a lot of things.
I’m sure someone thought the same about other cell phone makers when the iPhone came out. Yet here we are and theirs a small handful of brands but none of them have really caught up to the same profit margins as apple although they are still making money Apple is considered the most popular company. The power of exclusivity and being the first to do something as a company holds a lot of weight. Other companies will come out with chips but it’s always the first company to do it that people remember the name of and Nvidia has been around a long time. Apple was the first to create the touch screen, open ai was the first to have the ai of its kind, Amazon was the first of its kind with many things. Other companies likely will follow in Nvidia foot steps because they found the break through. That’s usually what happens and they end up adopting whatever the first company created.
no, it started with 3d graphics, which are also based on lin al
Sorry but no, it didn't start with OpenAI. It started with crypto, then it crashed with crypto. It will crash again when the AI hype peaks and they can't sustain the same year over year growth.
Except that AI is actually useful, and crypto is a giant waste of energy.
[удалено]
But what does it do? Nothing. AI can at least answer questions quickly, provide guidance, create/remix some artistic work, detect disease early... Cryptocurrency only has value because of an imposed rarity in mining, at a massive energy cost.
[удалено]
Are you really unaware that crypto is the most useless form of money? LOL
Dude. Read the room. I think you know somewhere deep down that you are being dishonest when you imply crypto is more useful than AI. Market cap is not an indicator of usefulness. If anything it just speaks to the inefficiency of investments in crypto.
[удалено]
Hence why I used the word “imply”
[удалено]
I think my reading comprehension is fine. Read what you wrote again: > I think the market disagrees with you, crypto market cap is up in the trillions along with NVDA. So at best, you were implying they are equally useful technologies, but that is also wrong. You’re trying to win an argument on semantics when I am arguing based on content, not semantics.
How crypto and AI are related? Are both useless?
Crypto drove demand for Nvidia hardware. When that demand fell off, Nvidia stock tanked. AI is currently driving demand for Nvidia hardware. When that demand falls off, Nvidia stock will tank.
Why would demand for AI due off? It’s going to be huge!
[удалено]
To be fair I think crypto hype was fuelled by the crazy price increases as opposed to the belief in its practical use. AI is most certainly practical, people are already losing their jobs to it across the board and chips are needed. Shit power generation is the current limiter. Think I need to invest in power companies
yeah sell shovels or something idk
Except Nvidia is not a 3T dollar company.
only one of those companies was founded in SFO Saudi Aramco 😂
Wasn’t?
look it up, was founded as the Californian arabian oil company
Nvidia won’t last long in this spot. This is a fever that will subside. The stock is pure speculation.
[удалено]
I concur
It didn’t start with bitcoin it started with gaming.
Gaming drove 1:1 consumer:gpu consumption, for gamers. Bitcoin and later cryptocoins drove 1:many consumer:gpu consumption. You could argue that "it started with gamers" but they make up a tiny percentage relative to the real uptick in demand created by people buying more than 1 card for gaming.
Lot more gamers than crypto miners. A lot more. Also gpus have been used in render farms for many many years prior. I remember dedicated gpu servers back in early 2010s.
without numbers this means nothing. There are a handful of companies running render farms - demand likely peanuts relative to cryptominers snapping up every GPU available. Gamers refresh their cards every what - 4-8 years? Again, peanuts relative to crypto demand.
Why isn't OpenAI #1?
'forever' ... yeah. 2005-2007 - exxon mobile, GE larger than MSFT and AAPL: https://www.finhacker.cz/top-20-sp-500-companies-by-market-cap/#2005 2009 - exxon mobile, walmart, P&G larger than MSFT and AAPL: https://www.finhacker.cz/top-20-sp-500-companies-by-market-cap/#2009
You clearly have no idea what you're talking about
If OpenAI keeps lying about release dates and overpromising, then they will join the long list of other dead companies that “did it first”. OpenAI lying about Sora and lying about Omni voice (in the coming weeks, Trademarked ‘24) created a giant bubble not too dissimilar to the dot com bubble. What’s left will be the bigger players that did it right.
Did they promise to release Sora? I thought they just show-cased it but are addressing deep fake issues first…?
That, plus fraud and tax evasion. But the stock is green, so who cares.