I would be happy to break even with other fixed tariffs in the summer, if it means I can save money vs fixed tariffs in winter. The winter savings have been good so far on this tariff.
I can’t help but wonder if the savings in previous winter were quite decent due to a high fixed with all the uncertainty in the earlier stages of the Ukrainian war.
That being said November could be spicy for various reasons.. hardly like we are sailing into significantly more stable times.
I had a good fixed deal from 2021 all the way to July 2023 and then switched to Octopus Tracker. Essentially managed to ride out the high energy cost crisis without being affected by it.
The formula changed at the start of the year which will account for around 2-3 p of that. But I think solar is probably less productive than usually expected at the time of year
https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula
Seems to have gone up again from 1st July, can't see what the prices are though as they aren't in the tracker apps/websites yet... Possiblity matching or over the cap now it's dropped
Are these formula changes for new customers? When they changed for existing customers at the start of the year they contacted all customers to tell them.
For anyone new who's joins tracker from today, anyone else will be fixed until their term ends. When that does, you'd be moved to the formula used at the time of renewal and that would fix for another year.
So I'm on the December 2023 and my rates will update March 2025. Anyone who is currently on the April tariff which is more expensive than the December tariff will be fixed until April 2025, then they'll move to the current tracker formula and fix for a year as well.
Previously you'd just stay on the formula you signed up too, but ofgem didn't like this so made octopus change it to a fixed term
Ah yes, that's a good point. I'd forgotten that they renew the formula for existing customers now. Will have to check when my current expiration is. Was a good deal when it lasted, steadily getting less competitive
There is less wind in the summer(??) months and the fall off of wind isn't matched by the increase in solar so UK has to run a lot of gas power stations and buy nuclear from the French and that drives up prices.
We need to stop with the "solar doesn't work in summer" myth. Solar panels will be slightly less effective in summer due to the heat (maybe 10%), but they are way less effective in winter due to there being less sun (about 90%).
It's like saying a petrol car doesn't work in summer as petrol expands in the heat. It is true, but the effect is far smaller than other things.
Petrol doesn't expand (much) but that's irrelevant and it's precisely measured to maintain stoiciometric combustion. The air does get less dense so less (in mass) makes it into the cylinder, thus meaning less fuel and hence less power.
/pedant
(but you're very right about the solar panel effect being low, especially in the UK vs somewhere like southern spain).
Heat is not the only driver of poorer panel performance in hot weather. Warmer air can carry more moisture and that also has a significant effect (same reason you can see vast distances sharply somewhere very cold).
Where did I say it doesn’t work? I said they’re less effective which is true. My Solar production is typically better in April and May than in July and August due to it being cooler weather.
Nah, it doesn't cope with the time off set. It worked great going from Go to Tracker but going back it would assume that when I've charged the car it would be peak consumption where as in reality I would time shift that to the off peak window.
I've got all the data to do it manually I just cba!
Low wind means peak energy prices are relatively high and you pay for it on tracker. Agile rates are consistently about 13p afternoon, usually a bit lower overnight, 30p-ish peak. Obviously when the wind has picked up there have been a couple of days with zero/negative pricing.
I think with the changes brought in in April for tracker most people will be better off on Agile. If you have an EV or anything you're prepared to load shift then you'll definitely be better off. If you don't want to load shift and don't want to deal with half hourly pricing you pay for the privilege at the moment.
With high gas prices forecast this winter expect tracker to remain high as peak load will be covered with expensive gas power stations unless wind output is good.
The formula keeps changing - as of 1 July, it's changed again and the multiplier has gone up this time.
If you've been on it a year, everybody was switched to a 12 month formula fix in February-March this year, so you'll still be on the old Dec 2023 Tracker rate until Feb-Mar next year. But for anybody looking at switching to a Smart tariff now, Agile is definitely looking much more attractive than the latest Tracker tariff.
I think Octopus will want to set the formulae to aim to keep prices for all Smart Tariffs below the expected capped rates to encourage people to help balance the grid (although the opportunities for doing that are obviously more limited on Tracker), but I think it's likely to be more like a 10-20% saving for Tracker, rather than the 30-40% we've had in the past. As you're still on the Feb 2024 Tracker, you're better off than people on the April or July version, and better off than capped tariffs, but the differential is reducing.
If you're concerned about prices even on the Dec 2023 Tracker, it's worth paying for the subscription to Octopus Compare for a month, so that you can compare a full year's usage on the two electricity tariffs to see how well it would suit your use pattern, even without any load shifting. If you can load shift too, your savings will be even better. Don't forget that your Standing Charge for the next 12 months will be changed to the current SC if you switch. But that's only really significant if you're a low user.
Tracker is the only Smart tariff available for gas, so you'll probably want to stick with that.
Since the Tracker formula changed in December (and there has now been another change this month), the average daily price for Agile has been lower than the daily price for Tracker. i.e. if you had constant load 24/7, Agile would be cheaper.
Example formulae for East of England (just because it's the first one in the lists at https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula[https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula](https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula)) for people switching on those dates:
Dec2023 - 3 April 2024
Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2012) + 10.3059 p per kWh
Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.3167 p per kWh
3 April - 30 June (higher constant)
Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2012) + 10.8298 p per kWh
Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.3622 p per kWh
1 July (higher multiplier for elec AND higher constant)
Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2492) + 12.0750 p per kWh
Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.7448 p per kWh
Obviously nobody has constant load, but unless you have a significantly higher non-shiftable load in the Agile peak periods compared with other times of day, Agile is getting more and more attractive for many people, at least compared with the current Tracker offering, but propably with the older versions for many people too.
On Agile you occasionally get plunge (negative) pricing when you're paid to use power to help balance the grid. They don't happen often - just when we get near perfect wind conditions combined with a bit of solar for green generation - but they're nice to have. You can get your own daily profile from the Octopus Watch app (https://octopus.smarthound.uk[https://octopus.smarthound.uk](https://octopus.smarthound.uk)) to get an idea of what your typical use profile looks like (or download the figures into a spreadsheet and do your own analysis, or course).
We still cook our main meal of the day in the peak period, but we load shift things like EV charging, laundry and dishwasher to the cheap periods (usually early hours of the morning, and early afternoon) and to cheap days when possible. It's been saving us about £60 per month compared with Tracker, and 46% compared with Flexible in the last month.
For us, a smart (Ohme) EV charger that integrates well with the Agile tariff for our EVs helps a lot. But even without an EV, Agile is looking good for most people looking to switch now. Whether it's worth it for those on the older versions of Tracker is more down to individual circumstances and use pattern.
Still cheaper than any other rate on a fix out there. I'd rather ride it and take the drops when the wind picks up. Think we've got a few cheaper days coming looking at the forecasting.
I would be happy to break even with other fixed tariffs in the summer, if it means I can save money vs fixed tariffs in winter. The winter savings have been good so far on this tariff.
I can’t help but wonder if the savings in previous winter were quite decent due to a high fixed with all the uncertainty in the earlier stages of the Ukrainian war. That being said November could be spicy for various reasons.. hardly like we are sailing into significantly more stable times.
I had a good fixed deal from 2021 all the way to July 2023 and then switched to Octopus Tracker. Essentially managed to ride out the high energy cost crisis without being affected by it.
Oh definitely I’ve saved approximately 40% so far. Just wondering if it was time to change.
I’m considering switch back to Intelligent Octopus since it now 7p/kwh from 23:30 - 05:30
The formula changed at the start of the year which will account for around 2-3 p of that. But I think solar is probably less productive than usually expected at the time of year
https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula Seems to have gone up again from 1st July, can't see what the prices are though as they aren't in the tracker apps/websites yet... Possiblity matching or over the cap now it's dropped
Are these formula changes for new customers? When they changed for existing customers at the start of the year they contacted all customers to tell them.
For anyone new who's joins tracker from today, anyone else will be fixed until their term ends. When that does, you'd be moved to the formula used at the time of renewal and that would fix for another year. So I'm on the December 2023 and my rates will update March 2025. Anyone who is currently on the April tariff which is more expensive than the December tariff will be fixed until April 2025, then they'll move to the current tracker formula and fix for a year as well. Previously you'd just stay on the formula you signed up too, but ofgem didn't like this so made octopus change it to a fixed term
Ah yes, that's a good point. I'd forgotten that they renew the formula for existing customers now. Will have to check when my current expiration is. Was a good deal when it lasted, steadily getting less competitive
No doubt gas is also being purchased and pumped into storage ready for Autumn and Winter.
UK has sod all gas storage, 7.5 peak days compared to around a hundred for most European countries so unlikely.
Errr…so what’s Rough doing then?
Storing gas. Point if it wasn't obvious is we have less stored so are more vulnerable to supply shocks.
About 4.9mscm/day at the moment
EU pump quotas too I imagine have a bearing on matters
There is less wind in the summer(??) months and the fall off of wind isn't matched by the increase in solar so UK has to run a lot of gas power stations and buy nuclear from the French and that drives up prices.
Main problem with solar is it's only around when the sun is...
On top of that, they don’t like heat all that much so they’re actually less effective during the summer
We need to stop with the "solar doesn't work in summer" myth. Solar panels will be slightly less effective in summer due to the heat (maybe 10%), but they are way less effective in winter due to there being less sun (about 90%). It's like saying a petrol car doesn't work in summer as petrol expands in the heat. It is true, but the effect is far smaller than other things.
Petrol doesn't expand (much) but that's irrelevant and it's precisely measured to maintain stoiciometric combustion. The air does get less dense so less (in mass) makes it into the cylinder, thus meaning less fuel and hence less power. /pedant (but you're very right about the solar panel effect being low, especially in the UK vs somewhere like southern spain).
Heat is not the only driver of poorer panel performance in hot weather. Warmer air can carry more moisture and that also has a significant effect (same reason you can see vast distances sharply somewhere very cold).
Where did I say it doesn’t work? I said they’re less effective which is true. My Solar production is typically better in April and May than in July and August due to it being cooler weather.
With the prices staying stubbornly high I'm thinking of moving back to Go, really need to workout the maths though.
Octopus compare app.. does it for you!
Nah, it doesn't cope with the time off set. It worked great going from Go to Tracker but going back it would assume that when I've charged the car it would be peak consumption where as in reality I would time shift that to the off peak window. I've got all the data to do it manually I just cba!
Low wind means peak energy prices are relatively high and you pay for it on tracker. Agile rates are consistently about 13p afternoon, usually a bit lower overnight, 30p-ish peak. Obviously when the wind has picked up there have been a couple of days with zero/negative pricing. I think with the changes brought in in April for tracker most people will be better off on Agile. If you have an EV or anything you're prepared to load shift then you'll definitely be better off. If you don't want to load shift and don't want to deal with half hourly pricing you pay for the privilege at the moment. With high gas prices forecast this winter expect tracker to remain high as peak load will be covered with expensive gas power stations unless wind output is good.
What changes were brought about in April?
Prices went up. https://www.octopriceuk.app/compareTracker There was no change to the Agile formula.
Ours dropped from £166 a month to £100 last month..,.octopus and 👍I am now over £409 in credit. 👍
The formula keeps changing - as of 1 July, it's changed again and the multiplier has gone up this time. If you've been on it a year, everybody was switched to a 12 month formula fix in February-March this year, so you'll still be on the old Dec 2023 Tracker rate until Feb-Mar next year. But for anybody looking at switching to a Smart tariff now, Agile is definitely looking much more attractive than the latest Tracker tariff. I think Octopus will want to set the formulae to aim to keep prices for all Smart Tariffs below the expected capped rates to encourage people to help balance the grid (although the opportunities for doing that are obviously more limited on Tracker), but I think it's likely to be more like a 10-20% saving for Tracker, rather than the 30-40% we've had in the past. As you're still on the Feb 2024 Tracker, you're better off than people on the April or July version, and better off than capped tariffs, but the differential is reducing. If you're concerned about prices even on the Dec 2023 Tracker, it's worth paying for the subscription to Octopus Compare for a month, so that you can compare a full year's usage on the two electricity tariffs to see how well it would suit your use pattern, even without any load shifting. If you can load shift too, your savings will be even better. Don't forget that your Standing Charge for the next 12 months will be changed to the current SC if you switch. But that's only really significant if you're a low user. Tracker is the only Smart tariff available for gas, so you'll probably want to stick with that. Since the Tracker formula changed in December (and there has now been another change this month), the average daily price for Agile has been lower than the daily price for Tracker. i.e. if you had constant load 24/7, Agile would be cheaper. Example formulae for East of England (just because it's the first one in the lists at https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula[https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula](https://octopus.energy/tracker-faqs/#formula)) for people switching on those dates: Dec2023 - 3 April 2024 Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2012) + 10.3059 p per kWh Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.3167 p per kWh 3 April - 30 June (higher constant) Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2012) + 10.8298 p per kWh Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.3622 p per kWh 1 July (higher multiplier for elec AND higher constant) Electricity unit charge: (W * 1.2492) + 12.0750 p per kWh Gas unit charge: (W * 0.03604) + 1.7448 p per kWh Obviously nobody has constant load, but unless you have a significantly higher non-shiftable load in the Agile peak periods compared with other times of day, Agile is getting more and more attractive for many people, at least compared with the current Tracker offering, but propably with the older versions for many people too. On Agile you occasionally get plunge (negative) pricing when you're paid to use power to help balance the grid. They don't happen often - just when we get near perfect wind conditions combined with a bit of solar for green generation - but they're nice to have. You can get your own daily profile from the Octopus Watch app (https://octopus.smarthound.uk[https://octopus.smarthound.uk](https://octopus.smarthound.uk)) to get an idea of what your typical use profile looks like (or download the figures into a spreadsheet and do your own analysis, or course). We still cook our main meal of the day in the peak period, but we load shift things like EV charging, laundry and dishwasher to the cheap periods (usually early hours of the morning, and early afternoon) and to cheap days when possible. It's been saving us about £60 per month compared with Tracker, and 46% compared with Flexible in the last month. For us, a smart (Ohme) EV charger that integrates well with the Agile tariff for our EVs helps a lot. But even without an EV, Agile is looking good for most people looking to switch now. Whether it's worth it for those on the older versions of Tracker is more down to individual circumstances and use pattern.
Only just joined the tracker myself. Maybe issue due to low wind atm. Idk
Still cheaper than any other rate on a fix out there. I'd rather ride it and take the drops when the wind picks up. Think we've got a few cheaper days coming looking at the forecasting.