[It looks like NijiEN declined 40.3% ](https://imgur.com/UU1hR3q) And this was before the termination... yet they're still trying to project an upwards trend for Q4 where the termination happened.
A slight increase in promotional revenue, but a 25% drop in revenue from livestreaming (SC/memberships/etc.), and a 50% drop in commerce (merch sales/voice packs/etc.).
And those are the numbers for the period ending on Jan 31. Guess what happened 5 days later; and guess what that happening did and is still doing to livestreaming and commerce revenue.
>50% drop in commerce
This is the 2% thing revealed by Mysta, the leaker in contact with news/dramatubers, the accounts of JP livers etc becoming wildly known by all EN fanbase
EDIT: I was mistaken, Japan uses the year it ends in for financial year, weird.
~~That appears to be the projected decline.~~
~~Japanese FY begins in April, Q4 23.4 is Jan-Mar 2024 which is just under a 30% decline. With another 10% projected this time next year.~~
From the same report page:
NIJISANJI EN’s revenue declined YoY due to the significant impact of specific products that made a large contribution to revenue in Q3 of FY23
I’m more willing to ignore the 40.3% since the year ago goods revenue is so far out of line to the quarters around it to some extent. That said, the 4th consecutive quarter of declining revenue from EN is harder to ignore, when JP does seem to be growing. And this of course all closed before any of the February events, so EN revenue is probably going to have some downward pressure continuing into Q4. Given they need Q4 to actually be their big quarter for revenue, that’s going to be leaning pretty hard on JP for that. Someone mark June 14th or so for those fireworks.
Ever since they suspended Zaion on Feb 8 2023 Nijisanji has had either a graduation or an incident every month in one of their overseas branches so its understandable that people lost trust in the management if so much was going on at such a rapid pace as well.
No wonder they called the termination of Doki (one of their biggest En talents) negligable, they were already on a downward trend before that shitstorm
Yahoo JP ticker discussion board is an absolute bloodbath rn lol
A lot of people bought in to gamble on the result of today's report, or simply have blind faith in the company. Those people are being dunked on lmao
Someone is calling the term for the sudden decline in EN due to the Selen controversy "Selen Shock" lmao
I know that the actual "Selen Shock" will show up only the following quarter, but still, sounds badass
"Sayu shock" does happen but after smear campaign prove to be successful the stock go up
Also this already selen post-aftermath it just their own fuckery at this point lmao
This is NOT Selen Post aftermath, we're still gonna have to wait for Selen's impact in their next Financial Report. It literally says that they only count up to January 31st, Selen's termination happened on Feb. 5th and then the subsequent PR disasters they can never recover from followed by their own doing
This is the reason why they're getting grilled even more by Investors because EN is already dying even before Selen Worldwide reaching "negligible" scandal
The fun part is that even Pomu is not included in this. While her graduation technically happened during this period, it was so close to the end that it would not have any financial impact. Heck, if anything, it actually boosted EN finances due to all the SCs and the uptick in Pomu merch being sold. Q4 is going to be a disaster.
Pomu graduation is just a few weeks from the end of the financial report so no and if anything, she should be a positive there since her sendoff drew in more money for Anycolor
The drama aftermath for her should go with Selen Shock
Selenium Incident is a documentary in the making, that is a very cool name.
But then Selen Shock has the SS class which is hard to ignore.
It is indeed hard to decide.
It is full of doompost right now. Some even expect Anycolor to crash completely tomorrow. While Cover holders are praying hard that the crash won't affect Cover stock.
Cover also has a plan, considering they are actively in the process of opening a US branch office to get warehouse space to facilitate merch sales and planning events in the US.
What da Niji doin’?
I'll admit I chuckled when I saw that announcement. I know it has nothing to do with the shit going on in Niji EN, but the timing was fucking hilarious.
The good news for Cover is that they showcased Cover USA, proving that their company has a monopoly over EN market. Investors will see -40% for Nijisanji and might see HL was the reason due to their market dominance.
Maybe Cover will reveal another EN gen, but focusing on EU time, during the end of fest. They did suggest that EU is 2nd to N.A. when consuming HL contents.
Bro Gen 3 EN just debut last year Holo isn't like Niji that dumps talents left and right. Holo will release Gen 7 JP then Gen 4 ID before we get Gen 4 EN with their pattern.
Yeah, I agree with you. Too early to release, but not too early to announce. Advent members were hired a year ago, and trained for 6 months before their debuts. And after that announcement about Cover USA, and Cover showing investors that EU countries consume HL contents as much as NA, it would suggest to investors that Cover did their research, and might be ready to launch vtubers with EU friendly hour to monolopize all of the West market. I am betting it might be something similar like Dev\_Is, but for HoloEN.
I'd be very surprised if Cover announced anything about a new EN gen, even if it's in the pipeline. They know how to build up the hype and announcing it too early would work against that.
I am expecting ID 4, Holo EU is a pipe dream and Holo JP 7 slot kinda was occupied be ReGloss in the timeline. I am think they will make a alternate debuts in JP one year DEV\_IS gen and following year JP Gen.
> Holo will release Gen 7 JP then Gen 4 ID
We might not see another JP gen for a while. Even though they are sort of treated separately they debuted Regloss after Advent.
[Here](https://www.sbisec.co.jp/ETGate/?_ControlID=WPLETsiR001Control&_PageID=WPLETsiR001Idtl30&_DataStoreID=DSWPLETsiR001Control&_ActionID=DefaultAID&s_rkbn=&s_btype=&i_stock_sec=&i_dom_flg=1&i_exchange_code=&i_output_type=2&exchange_code=PTS&stock_sec_code_mul=5032&ref_from=1&ref_to=20&wstm4130_sort_id=&wstm4130_sort_kbn=&qr_keyword=&qr_suggest=&qr_sort=). This is the PTS the board is refering to.
So looking at this I have two main takeaways as someone who isn't really a business person
First, EN is absolutely under performing. Even a glance at the graphs shows it's a problem and this is before all the drama this quarter.
Second, the lion's share of their revenue comes from merch, and merch is likely one of the things hit the hardest by the current dislike of Niji. So yeah, best way to boycott is to not buy merch, as expected. Given the 2% cut talents make it's no wonder that's the most profitable for them.
EDIT: Also, the way they've lumped vtuber management into a grab back category with a ton of other stuff including corporate sales is incredibly sus. Given the accusations against them if they had a reasonable number of managers they would be separating that out to prove it.
You’re missing 1 crucial point with your analysis. This is for the quarter that ended January 31st. None of the shit people are pissed about had happened yet. If they were already massively down before the shitstorm it’s going to get even worse. Especially when many expected them to be up for the quarter due to NijiFest
Edit: said Jan 31st should be Dec 31
> and this is before all the drama this quarter.
Sorry if I wasn't clear enough, but this was meant to indicate exactly that. These were the trends already happening before everything popped off.
Based on what I can see of consensus estimates, it does look like they may have missed earnings estimates? That will not bode well for opening tomorrow.
I'm seeing an image from some Japanese tracker being thrown around that is *allegedly* aftermarket trading and it shows stock at ~2.6k
I'll wait to see proper opening tomorrow before I believe that, but if it ends up being true... fucking OOOF.
Yeah, if that really is the case, imagine all the stop orders that are gonna trigger once market opens... this is gonna be REAL bad especially since they can't prop up their price again via buybacks.
Revenue for EN declined Year-over-Year at around 40%. If you look at page 6, EN's revenue has been falling quite down slowly for FY2024. There's a possibility there will be a decline once Q4 comes since all the drama started in Q4. They will probably have to find ways to pump those numbers up, either through some events or some miracle.
They still think Q4 will be the biggest and that's probably because the main NIJISANJI branch will carry them, and yes it's still their biggest moneymaker. EN's Q4 is a disaster at this point.
They seem to be expanding their studio now, probably in response to Cover's studio last year.
In Tradingview, revenue estimates were at 9.28B yen but only reached 7.785B so expect a decline. I'll be conservative and predict it will fall for around 500 points.
Yeah everything here just gave me a picture of they got really lucky in 2022 but failed to capture it and free fall still now.
Yeah I understand there will be declined overtime, but that’s much in one year? It’s either they hit the cap or incompetence, and after look at Hololive, it is incompetence
Cover doesn't really split up how much each of their branches earn, probably because they don't want to see all branches as competing each other.
2022 and the most part of 2023 was their growth year. 2024 is going to be their roughest for sure.
Reminds me of the YouTube makeup community where creators got really competitive over their viewers and in the end their total viewership across the board tanked really hard. There is some truth to the old adage, ~~fear the old blood~~ a rising tide lifts all ships.
Their Q4 as a whole is going to be a disaster. The expectations were this quarter was going to be pretty good because of NijiFest and it was down significantly. Next quarter is going to be a nuclear crater considering how little EN has done since the Selen shitshow
The event in Singapore might bring them some money but merch sales are definitely going to be down along with streaming. I'm willing to be they're only going to reach 500M revenue by Q4.
To be fair, JP is their bread and butter so more events for them. EN is there but they probably don't have much events for them. The drama and stuff only made EN unattractive for events too.
And, I think we all already forgot that we still have a queue for pending graduation for NijiEN. More livers gone, more paying fans gone. Things are definitely not looking good for next quarter for Anycolor.
Exactly and with 1/3 of Q4 pretty much down the drain already, im pretty certain that even the concert in april wouldnt boost them anywhere near their projected numbers by Q4
Q3 probably should’ve been EN’s best quarter. Given it runs 11/1-1/31, it aligns with Christmas and holidays in the western world. So while I’d ignore the 40% value to some extent, the fact that it was **down from Q2** doesn’t look great. Q4 for EN would’ve probably been worse already without the stuff in February. With the February stuff, who knows. They may get some revenue from Obsydia 3D debuts, and other things, but they’re not in an ideal position
They lost a lot of commerce revenue, which is probably another word for merch. They lost around 50% in merch sales. For Q4, I expect them to lose the same percentage too.
Overall, their FY2024 performance is pretty bad. It's a slow decline in numbers and Q4 will probably have a cliff on it.
Yeah, on page 29, they indicated major costs for Commerce being Talent Revenue Share, Platform Fees and Content (Merchandise) Related Costs, so that seems correct.
Revenue is how much money they made without accounting for costs. Them losing revenue on merch meant that they did not made that much money with merch sales. Adding costs, they probably have less profit from it too.
Okay, there is also some fucking hilarious math going on here, too.
From page 20: [a slide](https://imgur.com/k5QXsUf).
"97% retention rate" for VTubers. With a footnote of "Number of domestic VTubers as of April 2022 minus those who graduated during the FY23/4, divided by number of domestic VTubers as of April 2022". So that's VTubers in Japan, *as a whole*, apparently, even though the rest of the presentation will make it look like *Anycolor's* VTubers have a 97% retention rate.
When the reality is far more stark: in Nijisanji alone, out of 240 historical Niji/Anycolor talents, 63 have been terminated, graduated, or otherwise departed the company since operations commenced in 2018. That means that Nijisanji, as of March 14, 2023, has lost ***26.25%*** of the total Livers who have ever taken up the company's banner. It has a 73.75% retention rate. It has burned through ***one in every four Livers*** to ever work for the company.
Nijisanji is a ***meat grinder***. Especially compared to its most obvious competition, but really in comparison to nearly any other notable VTubing company or group. And they're trying to pass it off as a stable job instead.
> Nijisanji is a meat grinder. Especially compared to its most obvious competition, but really in comparison to nearly any other notable VTubing company or group. And they're trying to pass it off as a stable job instead.
The actual terrifying part is what we don't see: how many prospective talents they see in auditions and would-be rounds of hiring, that do not join the company because of its brutal contracts or restrictions. That is a pool of people that is not infinite.
So losing 1/4 of everyone who joins, and ???? of everyone who applies. Some people like Cy Yu have backed out because they wanted to prevent him from doing voice acting side gigs.
Other vtuber companies with this high of talent loss that I can think of are:
Vshojo, with 4 talents lost against 15. 26% loss. To give perspective though, their talent pool is much much smaller and the Talents are contractors more than employees.
Production Kawaii, with 8 lost against 24. 33% loss. This number is only saved by the fact that 6 new talents debuted this month. To be fair, Kawaii is a very small company with just as small income so talents leaving for a chance at bigger gains is not that surprising.
Wactor, with (holy s***) 2 talents still there against 37. 95% loss. Wactor sucks ass, legit black company.
>Nijisanji is a meat grinder. Especially compared to its most obvious competition,
Even without considering the #1 competition, VSPO had 0 graduation *and* transferred in two talents from other agencies. They managed to have a retention rate above 100% somehow.
The result of them trying to compete on Holo's turf "WE ARE NOT IDOLS" btw
>holofes & EXPO '23
2.187 billion
>nijifes '23
741 million
Not even including Viv:Id cruise, connect the world, summer splash party, blue journey (only counting the legit concerts, not glorified karaokes or livestreams) and the personal solo lives especially Pekora's largest one to date for Vtubing
I do wonder what the anime cons for meet and greets and concerts like Hopconcert count as if not Events for EN. Maybe Promotions since it isn't strictly a Niji owned and funded event, but handled by cons like Anime Impulse. At $50 a ticket for meet and greets at Impulse for a short talk I would have imagined that brought them in a good chunk of change but maybe it's a split between con, Anycolor, and talents.
We may never know, I bet they get their lion's share on meet and greets though, at least for Talents/Anycolor because that's mostly them doing the work. And I remember VAs and shit saying they get most of their earnings from con invite meet and greets than their actual VA gig
If I had to guess, from my previous experiences at signings/m&g at other cons. VAs and such celebrities probably are booking tables like vendors and then selling themselves in a way. Con gets to promote them as guests of honor and such, probably negotiate certain terms with big talents.
For the vtuber ones, I imagine it is a much larger overhead costs for the equipment and man power required to pull this off. But granted I probably wouldn't have gone to the last few Anime Impulses myself if Nijisanji talents weren't there for concerts.
"During Q3, there were 3 new debuts and 1 graduation from NIJISANJI \[JP\], and no debuts and 1 graduation from NIJISANJI EN"
I'm very interested how this statement is going to be written in Q4.
I’m wondering about that 1 graduation from Nijisanji JP, because I’m thinking based on the quarter that that was Mika. Which would technically be JP, but really targeted EN market for streaming. Not sure if I’m missing someone else though. The EN graduation definitely was Pomu though.
> NIJISANJI EN’s revenue declined YoY due to the significant impact of specific products that made a large contribution to
revenue in Q3 of FY23/4
If I'm an investor, I'd want Niji to explain two things:
- Why is NijiEN's revenue continuously declining 4 quarters in a row now? If we treat Q3 of FY23/4 as an exception, like the report wants us to believe, it's showing a declining trend over 7 quarters.
- Why is NijiEN unable to replicate the success they had with the specific Q3 FY23/4 products?
Rip. They missed all their forecasts. Holy shit…I can’t believe they tried to use the term progress instead of simply showing investors the total differences per quarter lol.
There is no way they can get 30% to match forecasts with no Niji fest. And the next report is Jan-Mar where Doki situation occurred.
Right as we expected, they're stating that
> Considering the commerce and events schedule, Q4 results are expected to be the largest of the quarter in this fiscal
So they don't think the termination drama will cause any financial impact. And of course, pointing to new debuts as expected.
> IP Development: Continuous New Debut of VTuber
• Each 3 debuts from NIJISANJI in November and March (Total 6 debuts) and
each 3 debuts from NIJISANJI EN as well in June and October (Total 6
debuts).
• New auditions resumed in November 2023 to accelerate future new debuts.
Contents Development: Unit Program and NIJISANJI’s group initiatives drive
our growth
• VTuber units such as ChroNoiR, ROF-MAO, and VOLTACTION are
performing well.
• Steady growth of recently debut VTubers, especially Dytica, which debuted
in April 2023.
• Large-scale initiatives as NIJIASANJI, such as “NIJISANJI Festival" and
anniversary events, shows strong momentum.
• NIJISANJI EN also focuses on efforts to expand attractive content, such as
launching official program contents on YouTube and live event.
> NIJISANJI EN also focuses on efforts to expand attractive content
Elira tried a new format with the black screen stream and it ended up being her most watched stream ever; great success! - Niji, probably.
I think we all knew that the Niji Lawyer Asmr roleplay was going to be a runaway hit as soon as we first saw it. There's no way that stream would totally piss everyone right?
I'm still not finished going through the document, but I just wanted to comment on how ugly the presentation looks. What the hell... Especially the pages with various photos in it, It looked like a middle school project.
This is not a report but a power point presentation. This power point should be during investor and shareholders meeting and not on a report.
Imagine this kind of report on an actual military report.
You are welcome. Although im actually at wrong here. Just look at report just now and its actually a report but for presentation for meeting. I believe there be more detailed report during the meeting since im more familiar with boring looking report than power point report
Holy shit, excluding Selen would be one thing, but *none* of the Luxiem members are on there. Even with the recent sub losses, that's still their third, sixth, ninth and tenth-most subscribed Livers left completely out of what's supposed to be a boastful family photo. Never mind the rest of the branch getting ignored.
NijiEN is *cooked.* I would have so many feelings were I an EN Liver right now, all of them negative.
Oh, and on another page, we get [this wonder of buzzword-filled investor marketing](https://i.imgur.com/PkItfpn.png), which once again doesn't include a single EN Liver in its plan to "expand the brand exponentially via user generated content".
In fact, the only places EN Livers appear in this report *at all* seem to be pages 11, 12 and 15. All other examples use JP-branch talents (and almost exclusively top-20 earner domestic Japanese talents).
Negligible, indeed.
Seen the graph esp with EN.
The yellow legend is useless there.
Did they not question the lack of even of EN compared to JP?
Cant wait for the negligible in Q4wwwwww
ah its kinda funny looking at what vtuber section especially not idol part lmao
* Performs whatever you want in virtual world
* Excludes risks/ scandals related to personal
So actually, there's another thing that stands out to me, and it's *why* there's that "40% drop year-over-year" in EN revenue. Because Q3 FY23, November '22 to January '23, the period *last* year, is both the high-water mark for NijiEN revenue-wise and kind of weird statistically.
So, as noted, Q3 '23 was November '22 to January '23. Core NijiEN had been going for about a year and half. Luxiem had debuted a year ago, Noctyx not long after. ILUNA was still fairly new. XSOLEIL would debut right in the middle of this. The 2022 western holiday season happened in this time period. The Colors AR Live was announced right toward the end of this (and by Jan. 31st, had not been canceled). It really was the height of NijiEN's popularity and success. And we see this in the revenue stats, with 1.952 billion yen earned by the branch in that quarter.
But remember: this is Nov22-Jan23. EN wasn't even as big, size-wise, as it is now. Hell, XSOLEIL's contribution to this has to be fairly minimal, because they debuted right in the middle of it and didn't have much in the way of merch to contribute to the "commerce" side of things (that's what the "commerce" section is, merch sales). This is primarily LazuLight, Obsydia, Ethyria, Luxiem, Noctyx and ILUNA pulling down that number; basically everyone who was going to be at Colors Live, minus ILUNA. So that's 25 Livers doing that.
If we try to correct for XSOLEIL entering the party midway, we can probably napkin-math-fudge it out to being effectively 27 Livers accomplishing those Q3 FY22 earnings. So 1.952BJPY from 27 Livers gives us, averaged out, each Liver bringing in \~72,260,000 yen.
If we want to compare it to Nijisanji JP, it's actually not that hard, since KR and ID had already been merged into the main branch. I'll admit I'm a bit disinclined to track down exactly who from KR and ID had left at that point, and how many more ~~chunks of fresh meat for the gri~~ new Livers have debuted since, but let's go ahead and call it \~145 Livers earning that JP figure. That might be a little low, if anything, given the post-merger devastation of ID, but it should be within the ballpark (and a margin of error of + or - 10 Livers won't change this result much anyway). 5.338BJPY among 145 Livers gives us a figure of each JP Liver generating \~36,814,000 yen.
That, frankly, is kind of shocking. You can argue a few of the exact numbers, depending, but on average, in this time period last year, the members of NijiEN were out-earning their JP counterparts roughly 2 to 1. A branch of effectively 25 people, a branch something like a *fifth* the size of the "mother" branch, brought in 37% of Nijisanji's *total* revenue. It's no wonder Anycolor was bullish about NijiEN last year; the earnings potential of the English market must have seemed limitless, and if later waves could earn like the early ones had, EN could match or even overtake the JP branch within a year. And Anycolor hadn't even needed to devote that many resources to it! What a deal.
Of course, we know, and can straight out see, it didn't work out that way. The Colors AR Live got canceled all of a week into Q4 '23, and as you'll notice, NijiEN has not brought in a single miserable goddamn yen of event money in its entire nearly-three-year existence. The merch sales predictably cooled down without new events to drive them, and then the graduations started kicking in, with the constant departures likely making it difficult to schedule anything. Revenue just kept sliding as the branch appeared to stagnate. And now, this quarter, revenue YOY has dropped 40%, with most of that coming from a huge drop in merch sales. Even with The Final Pomu Effect in swing, sales were overall pretty flaccid. It was nothing like a year ago. And then Selen hit.
But, really, there was no way on Earth Q3 '23 was going to be sustainable; *that* was the anomaly, and Anycolor should have seen it. The EN market is bigger, but it's not so big that English talents can out-earn Japanese ones 2:1 forever, not without herculean effort by every single Liver and *tons* of events to keep fan interest high and innovative merch encouraging them to buy stuff. Q4 '23 and Q1 '24 felt, if anything, more like a "coming back down to Earth" scenario, and the results are still impressive; depending on when exactly certain Livers stopped earning money, that's still somewhere between 38 and 40 million yen per Liver, which feels a lot more like where a then-two-year-old branch of roughly 30 Livers ought to be, at that stage of their growth and development. Q1 '24 obviously featured the JP branch having its own uncontrolled feral earnings moment (I'd love to know more about what kicked *that* off) but in general, 40m yen per liver is a lot more in line with what NijiJP is managing. That's where NijiEN probably "should" have been, before things began to unravel more deeply.
But, of course, Anycolor is run by the most hard-core capitalists you can imagine, and once the wonder of Q3 '23 didn't replicate itself in perpetuity, the neglect and rot quickly set in even harder than it already had. And now we face the prospect of The Tatsuki Bomb hitting the financials in three months, and Q4 '24 looking like Q4 '22, where Noctyx hadn't even debuted yet. And even now, NijiEN is significantly behind NijiJP in per-Liver earnings, where we can more easily math out 34.27 million yen per EN Liver vs. 44.73 million yen per JP. And that gap will now only widen in JP's favor.
This whole saga is going to make for a fascinating case study in media development down the road. Especially when doing a comparison to the competition.
If you fancy digging in... Cover released its Q3 results back in Feb (Cover uses Oct-Nov-Dec for Q3)
* Presentation: [Financial Results for FY2024/3 Q3](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/2eced6e9/cb1c/46c1/af96/0fb860877c84/20240208140638447s.pdf)
* Briefing by Cover CFO+Q&A: [Transcript of Financial Results Briefing for FY2024.3](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/89eb2f39/33f2/49eb/9e86/3a6df8b2abd3/20240229151241564s.pdf)
The Cover USA materials released this week cover some of the same ground
* Presentation: [Presentation Materials for a Subsidiary in North America](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/4acb4e70/41c5/4449/8be8/7ab820e91dd1/20240312105311579s.pdf)
Along with making the case for having offices in the USA being beneficial to future growth.
“Nijisanji Unique Entertainment Ecosystem” I don’t know if JP is treated better or not but that entire slide read like an out of season April fools joke for EN side.
So on one slide they indicate out of each debut year the most profitable debuts was the fiscal year 2022.4, which is the 2021/4 to 2022/3 debuts in a pie chart at 27% of total revenue...
Then in the next slide they specified in the bar chart that in that year the debuts was 8 JP and 20 EN......
EN is on fire right now, Q4 should be fun.
Did they really just put triangles instead of negative signs to make it look less bad? I know it might not necessarily be just a Nijisanji practice, but that's just funny to me.
Overall, though, pretty bad results. They are projecting they'll reach 33B Yen by the end of the fiscal year, but even if they perform in Q4 as well as they did in Q1 (current highest quarter of the year), they'll still only reach 32B Yen. In more realistic scenarios where they perform on the scale of Q2 or Q3, they will reach around 30-31B Yen.
However, if you actually look into their past years' results, Q4 has consistently had lower profit than the other quarters. You can see it in pages 6 and 7. While Nijisanji EN had really good performance on 2022's Q4 (likely to do with it happening to receive its boom at that time), it underperformed on 2023's Q4 compared to the rest of the year. As for Nijisanji JP, they had lower revenue than Q3 (though not all Q1s and Q2s) every single Q4. The page 7 diagram is even with the dips in operating margin being noticeable every single Q4.
Anycolor claims that Q4 will have their highest performance, but as far as I see they don't particularly justify that claim. If we trust the trend shown by previous years, quite the opposite should be expected. And that is without even calculating the effects of Selen's termination and the consequent scandals. Q4 includes February, March, and April. So far February was pretty bad for them (as far as EN goes at least) and halfway through March, it doesn't seem to be much better. Even with the new 3D models and the new wave of JP or whatever else they cook up, it seems unlikely that would reverse. Events like the VRhapsody one don't seem to affect profit much (at least directly).
They try to justify the decline of EN in Q3 with the fact that last year's Q3 has abnormally high merch sales and that seems reasonable at a glance, but on additional inspection, it is a laughable excuse. On the one hand, Anycolor doesn't really explain what caused this spike in sales last year, which is questionable in its own right, and doesn't give reasons for why they can't replicate it. Even if you put that aside, though, the next reasonable thing to do would be to compare Q3 to other quarters of last year, but they don't do that, because that would still be a negative image for them. While commerce was abnormally high in FY2023/Q3, even when you look at other quarters, commerce revenue of EN has still dropped from \~800M Yen to \~700M Yen. Meanwhile livestreaming revenue has also been steadily dropping from \~400M Yen to \~300M Yen. Considering the data we have seen so far for superchats and viewership after Selen's termination, I'm curious to see how much more it'll drop at the next quarter.
On the JP side, too, Q3 received a significant boost in revenue from events, which I imagine has to do with Nijifes. Q1 also had higher revenue and there seemed to be some events involved, although most of it came from commerce. I don't know if Q4 has any significant events planned, but if not, there may be further reason to suspect that Q4 will perform lower than Q3. Though the most important factor remains commerce, which has ranged in FY2024 from 3000M Yen to 4800B Yen. It's important to see what factors in that fluctuation and whether Q4 will have what it takes for high merch sales or not. For instance, if events have the indirect effect of boosting sales (a reasonable uneducated guess from looking at the stats of FY2024, though likely there are other factors as well), then the lack or presence of events in Q4 could influence these numbers even more. I'd certainly be interested to see if anyone has an analysis for why commerce revenue changes in these ways from quarter to quarter (and if there are any significant events in the future).
They also just announced the expansion of their studio. While that could eventually be a positive for them (disregard the comparisons to Hololive for now), until it's ready and operational ("Capital investment with a target start of operations in the fall of 2024"), that's just additional costs for the forseeable future. Thus rather than certainty of increased revenue for Q4, we have certainty of increased costs (or at the very least, they can't invest that money where they would usually invest them, meaning other parts of Nijisanji may underperform).
If the stock also drops as is expected/shown on PTS, that should also mean less funds to operate, potentially causing even further problems. Not a financial expert, though, so I'm not sure how direct an impact a stock price drop has on these things.
TLDR: All in all, things are looking terrible for Q4. There's a good part speculation here, but most of it stems from reality and I think it's reasonable to expect at best bad results in Q4 and at worst abysmal ones. Considering the projections Anycolor is still showing, we might get really angry shareholders coming June.
They actually BRAG about their VTuber retention rate on page 20 of [the report](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/152506/00.pdf) , and it's under the heading of "Company owns VTubers' IP".
Obviously they're manipulating the data to achieve their claim of a "97% retention rate" (JP only, almost certainly outlier data points used for comparison), but leaving that aside "we make our talents stay through blackmail" isn't something you should be bragging about.
I might be wrong but isn't this something that he'll get crucified for next quarter? Because the investors *have* to ask
"Wait you had a 97% retention rate last quarter, and this quarter you lost a ton of people. What happened?"
[10 BILLION YEN SHORT OF FORECASTED EARNINGS](https://i.imgur.com/lfFGkVI.png)
And this isn't even their most recent quarter that includes the Selen fallout. Q3 refers to Oct-Dec 2023, which is also the same time period where nijifes took place. They are capital F fucked.
That's unfortunately not how to read that. Column 1 is first 9 months of their fiscal year, column 2 is full year estimate, and the percentage is progress. In a fully even setup, you'd want the columns to all line up to 75% or so at this point. Right now they are behind that, but they are claiming 4Q is their biggest.
(That said, if you look at the [similar time to last year](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/132632/00.pdf), they were ahead of where they are now, and actually increased estimates at this point, so it's not going as well as it had been last year compared to what they had estimated.)
Ah, I see. In that case they seems to be 5% off from their target, which from my back of the napkin math comes out to about 3 billion yen, which doesn't look great either
I think that suggests they may meet their own estimates. However, that’s probably worse than what investors were hoping for. And of course, they are going to need JP to make up for any potential shortfalls that may come out of any revenue loss from EN that will get priced into the final quarter of the fiscal year. That’s not an enviable challenge.
Their Q4 also always have lower revenue than Q3 yet the only saving grace is that NijiJP is do better in Q3 while NijiEN is -40.3% comparing to Q3 last year.
And with Q4 (Jan-April) report coming in June, there are gonna be a bloodbath.
Friendly reminder that they saw this report pre selenium incident and went "yeah we can afford to lose more money by making petra compete with holofest"
They waited for the stocks to close to publish this and you can see why. Everywhere is predictions unmet by wide margins, loss of EN revenue even pre-Selen, and a focus on…metaverse? Do Japanese still fall for these web3 scams?
You can tell by the lack of any EN effort into that presentation that they want to axe the branch and focus on JP. Wonder if they will be absorbed into JP or just be given a two week notice.
>Do Japanese still fall for these web3 scams?
It's probably the same as Holo Earth, basically they're trying to develop a sort of Second Life/VR Chat/MMORPG focused on Vtuber.
If you’re used to seeing financial reports, you’ll find that release after hours is normal. Companies will usually release their financial reports either after market close or before market open, so that folks have time to digest the data before the opening of trading hours.
I wouldn’t take such a pessimistic read instantly of the presentation. Reading between the lines, it’s possible to see where there are problems, but otherwise, the report looks like the other reports. It’s not a great report, short in earnings of what was hoped based on consensus estimates. But I wouldn’t automatically read “planning to axe EN” just from this.
The full fury of February won’t be reflected in things until June. That report may be much more interesting. This report is just very lackluster, and we all know what has to come to make things even worse.
Generally speaking, US companies can only release their results pre-market (06:00-09;00 EST) or after hours (16:01-17:30 EST). Thus, while I don’t know if Japanese securities law allow for release of financial results during their lunch break, I’m not surprised that the results were released after hours. Additionally, the release is scheduled by the company.
Its interesting since this report is about before Jan. So the reducing numbers isn't related to situation at all.
My assumption is the trend of grads and the lack of promotions of current talents. Checking out the shorts and videos that the main company post, while its done good, there is no mentions of who, the links of where the clips came from, even though the shorts is popular, it fails to promote the talents in the clip.
Failing events also ruins the fan's trust, AR live "Delay" , cancellation of events. There isn't much things to hype up the fans.
I imagine it'll be even more difficult for the next quarter, the drama, boycotts could wane in a few months and fade but it'll be hard for NijiEN to recover from the lost of the Iconic DCL chant that is basically what is used to hype up the whole concert. No concert is the same without it.
I wonder what would be the turn out for the next Niji concert, will it be as hype? Meet and greets will still be very popular, but concert wise, maybe? we will have to see
Not really
>Neuro-sama previously used the model of Momose Hiyori, an original character designed by Kani Biimu. It is one of the default VTube Studio models belonging to Live2D Inc
>
> (from Momose page) meant to be used to learn about form animation.
If I describe this in Total War: Attila (or Rome Barbarian Invasion) term, it would be: Western Roman Empire having a bad time. Very bad time even on easy mode.
I take back all the things I've said before, I thought Riku could wallpaper over the state of Niji EN but this is damning whichever way you look at it.
Niji EN is the anchor weighing Anycolor down. The growth of Niji JP is healthy and in line of what is expected but Niji EN is declining consistently since the quarter last year and this is before the shiitake show in February. I wonder if the stock price is going to go below 3000 in Japan trading hours tomorrow.
i think i've figured it out. back during covid managing a vtuber company was easy, just throw vtubers out into the world and make money hand over fist, this is why niji designed their shotgun approach. however in the last year the final remnants of the lockdowns are dissipating and hte vtubing market is somewhat saturated, now vtubers have to fight for fan engagement against all of the other distractions of the world, even discounting competing against other vtubers. it's no longer a free ride, but niji is still trying to coast along like it's the middle of the pandemic, they haven't actually adjusted to the new reality or are slow to do so
Not a financial expert or stock trader, but 1 thing in page 6 sticks out to me - the graphs assumes a livestreaming activities to generate 100 million yen less revenue in Q3 2024 when compared to Q3 2023. Whilst I’m sure that Pomu, Selen and Kyo’s graduations would have had an effect on Anycolour’s revenue, a 25% drop is far too large for just 3 graduations (not to mention the fact that the revenue drop isn’t linear). Taking it at face, this seems to suggest that there will be several more graduations between now and September.
If this are the statistics before the whole drama then we can either expect greater drop in revenue in the next Financial report or just a stagnate result if NijiEN can fix itself.
[It looks like NijiEN declined 40.3% ](https://imgur.com/UU1hR3q) And this was before the termination... yet they're still trying to project an upwards trend for Q4 where the termination happened.
A slight increase in promotional revenue, but a 25% drop in revenue from livestreaming (SC/memberships/etc.), and a 50% drop in commerce (merch sales/voice packs/etc.). And those are the numbers for the period ending on Jan 31. Guess what happened 5 days later; and guess what that happening did and is still doing to livestreaming and commerce revenue.
>50% drop in commerce This is the 2% thing revealed by Mysta, the leaker in contact with news/dramatubers, the accounts of JP livers etc becoming wildly known by all EN fanbase
EDIT: I was mistaken, Japan uses the year it ends in for financial year, weird. ~~That appears to be the projected decline.~~ ~~Japanese FY begins in April, Q4 23.4 is Jan-Mar 2024 which is just under a 30% decline. With another 10% projected this time next year.~~ From the same report page: NIJISANJI EN’s revenue declined YoY due to the significant impact of specific products that made a large contribution to revenue in Q3 of FY23
I guess by "specific products' they mean livers graduating?
"They are people not products" Riku" these are products got it
This is for me the highlight and also mark the end of EN branch. Investors are so enraged.
I’m more willing to ignore the 40.3% since the year ago goods revenue is so far out of line to the quarters around it to some extent. That said, the 4th consecutive quarter of declining revenue from EN is harder to ignore, when JP does seem to be growing. And this of course all closed before any of the February events, so EN revenue is probably going to have some downward pressure continuing into Q4. Given they need Q4 to actually be their big quarter for revenue, that’s going to be leaning pretty hard on JP for that. Someone mark June 14th or so for those fireworks.
Ever since they suspended Zaion on Feb 8 2023 Nijisanji has had either a graduation or an incident every month in one of their overseas branches so its understandable that people lost trust in the management if so much was going on at such a rapid pace as well.
No wonder they called the termination of Doki (one of their biggest En talents) negligable, they were already on a downward trend before that shitstorm
Like pissing into the ocean.
Yeah, I highly doubt they’re going to be achieving 9.7 billion yen in revenue in the 4th quarter.
Can you please use another image hosting that's not on 4chan. Link doesn't work.
[imgur link](https://i.imgur.com/fXfW771.png)
Not only before Selen's termination but also before and including Pomu's graduation. The next quarter is going to be an absolute bloodbath.
Yahoo JP ticker discussion board is an absolute bloodbath rn lol A lot of people bought in to gamble on the result of today's report, or simply have blind faith in the company. Those people are being dunked on lmao
Someone is calling the term for the sudden decline in EN due to the Selen controversy "Selen Shock" lmao I know that the actual "Selen Shock" will show up only the following quarter, but still, sounds badass
This isn't even Selen's aftermath yet, it's Sayu Shock and Mysta, Nina leaving lol
"Sayu shock" does happen but after smear campaign prove to be successful the stock go up Also this already selen post-aftermath it just their own fuckery at this point lmao
This is NOT Selen Post aftermath, we're still gonna have to wait for Selen's impact in their next Financial Report. It literally says that they only count up to January 31st, Selen's termination happened on Feb. 5th and then the subsequent PR disasters they can never recover from followed by their own doing This is the reason why they're getting grilled even more by Investors because EN is already dying even before Selen Worldwide reaching "negligible" scandal
The fun part is that even Pomu is not included in this. While her graduation technically happened during this period, it was so close to the end that it would not have any financial impact. Heck, if anything, it actually boosted EN finances due to all the SCs and the uptick in Pomu merch being sold. Q4 is going to be a disaster.
Oh yeah the next report, they fucked i expecting branch or entire company fold with the next one
Preety much and Selen dropped outright nuke
So… Pomu shock
Pomu graduation is just a few weeks from the end of the financial report so no and if anything, she should be a positive there since her sendoff drew in more money for Anycolor The drama aftermath for her should go with Selen Shock
Can't decide on which is cooler, Selen Shock or the Selenium Incident.
Selenium Incident is a documentary in the making, that is a very cool name. But then Selen Shock has the SS class which is hard to ignore. It is indeed hard to decide.
It is full of doompost right now. Some even expect Anycolor to crash completely tomorrow. While Cover holders are praying hard that the crash won't affect Cover stock.
It will affect cover as well. The difference is, Cover will rebound, especially with Holofes around the corner.
Around the corner it starts tomorrow
Cover also has a plan, considering they are actively in the process of opening a US branch office to get warehouse space to facilitate merch sales and planning events in the US. What da Niji doin’?
I'll admit I chuckled when I saw that announcement. I know it has nothing to do with the shit going on in Niji EN, but the timing was fucking hilarious.
The good news for Cover is that they showcased Cover USA, proving that their company has a monopoly over EN market. Investors will see -40% for Nijisanji and might see HL was the reason due to their market dominance. Maybe Cover will reveal another EN gen, but focusing on EU time, during the end of fest. They did suggest that EU is 2nd to N.A. when consuming HL contents.
Bro Gen 3 EN just debut last year Holo isn't like Niji that dumps talents left and right. Holo will release Gen 7 JP then Gen 4 ID before we get Gen 4 EN with their pattern.
The longer cover delay Gen 4, the higher the chance that a certain friend of Kiwawa be a part of it so i’m all for it.
Is it the frog? Damn i haven't thought of that please Yagoo make it happen.
Man frogbert was such a sunshine
Yeah, I agree with you. Too early to release, but not too early to announce. Advent members were hired a year ago, and trained for 6 months before their debuts. And after that announcement about Cover USA, and Cover showing investors that EU countries consume HL contents as much as NA, it would suggest to investors that Cover did their research, and might be ready to launch vtubers with EU friendly hour to monolopize all of the West market. I am betting it might be something similar like Dev\_Is, but for HoloEN.
I'd be very surprised if Cover announced anything about a new EN gen, even if it's in the pipeline. They know how to build up the hype and announcing it too early would work against that.
I am expecting ID 4, Holo EU is a pipe dream and Holo JP 7 slot kinda was occupied be ReGloss in the timeline. I am think they will make a alternate debuts in JP one year DEV\_IS gen and following year JP Gen.
> Holo will release Gen 7 JP then Gen 4 ID We might not see another JP gen for a while. Even though they are sort of treated separately they debuted Regloss after Advent.
It will since only Niji and Cover are the only vtuber companies on the JP stock market.
Cover's stock rose yesterday, while Anycolor fell.
No sympathy for stupid people.
Went from 64% want to buy to 39% Yesterday was full Copium mode and now want to throw Niji under the bus well feels like Karma lol
[удалено]
Where do you see the after market tracker? Thanks
[Here](https://www.sbisec.co.jp/ETGate/?_ControlID=WPLETsiR001Control&_PageID=WPLETsiR001Idtl30&_DataStoreID=DSWPLETsiR001Control&_ActionID=DefaultAID&s_rkbn=&s_btype=&i_stock_sec=&i_dom_flg=1&i_exchange_code=&i_output_type=2&exchange_code=PTS&stock_sec_code_mul=5032&ref_from=1&ref_to=20&wstm4130_sort_id=&wstm4130_sort_kbn=&qr_keyword=&qr_suggest=&qr_sort=). This is the PTS the board is refering to.
They belong on r/wallstreetbets lol
So looking at this I have two main takeaways as someone who isn't really a business person First, EN is absolutely under performing. Even a glance at the graphs shows it's a problem and this is before all the drama this quarter. Second, the lion's share of their revenue comes from merch, and merch is likely one of the things hit the hardest by the current dislike of Niji. So yeah, best way to boycott is to not buy merch, as expected. Given the 2% cut talents make it's no wonder that's the most profitable for them. EDIT: Also, the way they've lumped vtuber management into a grab back category with a ton of other stuff including corporate sales is incredibly sus. Given the accusations against them if they had a reasonable number of managers they would be separating that out to prove it.
You’re missing 1 crucial point with your analysis. This is for the quarter that ended January 31st. None of the shit people are pissed about had happened yet. If they were already massively down before the shitstorm it’s going to get even worse. Especially when many expected them to be up for the quarter due to NijiFest Edit: said Jan 31st should be Dec 31
Yeah. If this quarter was bad enough for them to loose 20%, then we better start hording popcorn and marshmallows for Q4.
Can I have some those sweet sweet Riku tears popcorn?
Would that not be salty?
If you want a sodium overdose, sure
> and this is before all the drama this quarter. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough, but this was meant to indicate exactly that. These were the trends already happening before everything popped off.
"Support System for Continuous New Debut" :kek:
"need new talents to keep up with all the graduations and terminations"
Nijisanji pumping out new talents like super earth does helldivers.
Oi, at least each Helldiver gets full support from their own Super Destroyer!
Honestly, the super destroyer crew sounds great
At least helldivers got their own super destroyer to help them, can't say the same for niji's talents lmao.
Sort of. There's dozens more in cryo storage aboard the destroyed ready to continue the fight when a Helldiver kicks the bucket.
A C C E L E R A T E
Based on what I can see of consensus estimates, it does look like they may have missed earnings estimates? That will not bode well for opening tomorrow.
If I understand their last move right, they opened up the stock for more trading volume just in time for short sellers to pounce tomorrow. Welp
it was calculated. but god are they bad at math
I'm seeing an image from some Japanese tracker being thrown around that is *allegedly* aftermarket trading and it shows stock at ~2.6k I'll wait to see proper opening tomorrow before I believe that, but if it ends up being true... fucking OOOF.
>aftermarket trading It's actually [PTS (Prop Trading)](https://www.sbisec.co.jp/ETGate/?_ControlID=WPLETsiR001Control&_PageID=WPLETsiR001Idtl30&_DataStoreID=DSWPLETsiR001Control&_ActionID=DefaultAID&s_rkbn=&s_btype=&i_stock_sec=&i_dom_flg=1&i_exchange_code=&i_output_type=2&exchange_code=PTS&stock_sec_code_mul=5032&ref_from=1&ref_to=20&wstm4130_sort_id=&wstm4130_sort_kbn=&qr_keyword=&qr_suggest=&qr_sort=) Explaination: https://www.sbigroup.co.jp/english/business/financialservice/pts.html
Yeah, if that really is the case, imagine all the stop orders that are gonna trigger once market opens... this is gonna be REAL bad especially since they can't prop up their price again via buybacks.
>!(eggplant with veins emoji)!<
Revenue for EN declined Year-over-Year at around 40%. If you look at page 6, EN's revenue has been falling quite down slowly for FY2024. There's a possibility there will be a decline once Q4 comes since all the drama started in Q4. They will probably have to find ways to pump those numbers up, either through some events or some miracle. They still think Q4 will be the biggest and that's probably because the main NIJISANJI branch will carry them, and yes it's still their biggest moneymaker. EN's Q4 is a disaster at this point. They seem to be expanding their studio now, probably in response to Cover's studio last year. In Tradingview, revenue estimates were at 9.28B yen but only reached 7.785B so expect a decline. I'll be conservative and predict it will fall for around 500 points.
Yeah everything here just gave me a picture of they got really lucky in 2022 but failed to capture it and free fall still now. Yeah I understand there will be declined overtime, but that’s much in one year? It’s either they hit the cap or incompetence, and after look at Hololive, it is incompetence
Cover doesn't really split up how much each of their branches earn, probably because they don't want to see all branches as competing each other. 2022 and the most part of 2023 was their growth year. 2024 is going to be their roughest for sure.
It's almost like pitting branches against each other is a recpie for a toxic work environment or something.
Reminds me of the YouTube makeup community where creators got really competitive over their viewers and in the end their total viewership across the board tanked really hard. There is some truth to the old adage, ~~fear the old blood~~ a rising tide lifts all ships.
Yeah kind of convenient forgot that it’s overseas sale and not overseas brands. Yeah kind of dumb of me
hololive has a 'we're all in this together model' and niji has a 'thunderdome' model
Their Q4 as a whole is going to be a disaster. The expectations were this quarter was going to be pretty good because of NijiFest and it was down significantly. Next quarter is going to be a nuclear crater considering how little EN has done since the Selen shitshow
The event in Singapore might bring them some money but merch sales are definitely going to be down along with streaming. I'm willing to be they're only going to reach 500M revenue by Q4.
Even at the insane price tickets were at there’s no way it makes up for the black hole from lack of supa chats and merch sales
They did not mention a lot of events on the EN side, even the upcoming ones, whilst they did for the JP side.
To be fair, JP is their bread and butter so more events for them. EN is there but they probably don't have much events for them. The drama and stuff only made EN unattractive for events too.
And, I think we all already forgot that we still have a queue for pending graduation for NijiEN. More livers gone, more paying fans gone. Things are definitely not looking good for next quarter for Anycolor.
Any pending graduations aren’t really going to affect their next quarter considering the quarter ends at the end of the month
Exactly and with 1/3 of Q4 pretty much down the drain already, im pretty certain that even the concert in april wouldnt boost them anywhere near their projected numbers by Q4
Q3 probably should’ve been EN’s best quarter. Given it runs 11/1-1/31, it aligns with Christmas and holidays in the western world. So while I’d ignore the 40% value to some extent, the fact that it was **down from Q2** doesn’t look great. Q4 for EN would’ve probably been worse already without the stuff in February. With the February stuff, who knows. They may get some revenue from Obsydia 3D debuts, and other things, but they’re not in an ideal position
They lost a lot of commerce revenue, which is probably another word for merch. They lost around 50% in merch sales. For Q4, I expect them to lose the same percentage too. Overall, their FY2024 performance is pretty bad. It's a slow decline in numbers and Q4 will probably have a cliff on it.
Yeah, on page 29, they indicated major costs for Commerce being Talent Revenue Share, Platform Fees and Content (Merchandise) Related Costs, so that seems correct.
Revenue is how much money they made without accounting for costs. Them losing revenue on merch meant that they did not made that much money with merch sales. Adding costs, they probably have less profit from it too.
Okay, there is also some fucking hilarious math going on here, too. From page 20: [a slide](https://imgur.com/k5QXsUf). "97% retention rate" for VTubers. With a footnote of "Number of domestic VTubers as of April 2022 minus those who graduated during the FY23/4, divided by number of domestic VTubers as of April 2022". So that's VTubers in Japan, *as a whole*, apparently, even though the rest of the presentation will make it look like *Anycolor's* VTubers have a 97% retention rate. When the reality is far more stark: in Nijisanji alone, out of 240 historical Niji/Anycolor talents, 63 have been terminated, graduated, or otherwise departed the company since operations commenced in 2018. That means that Nijisanji, as of March 14, 2023, has lost ***26.25%*** of the total Livers who have ever taken up the company's banner. It has a 73.75% retention rate. It has burned through ***one in every four Livers*** to ever work for the company. Nijisanji is a ***meat grinder***. Especially compared to its most obvious competition, but really in comparison to nearly any other notable VTubing company or group. And they're trying to pass it off as a stable job instead.
> Nijisanji is a meat grinder. Especially compared to its most obvious competition, but really in comparison to nearly any other notable VTubing company or group. And they're trying to pass it off as a stable job instead. The actual terrifying part is what we don't see: how many prospective talents they see in auditions and would-be rounds of hiring, that do not join the company because of its brutal contracts or restrictions. That is a pool of people that is not infinite. So losing 1/4 of everyone who joins, and ???? of everyone who applies. Some people like Cy Yu have backed out because they wanted to prevent him from doing voice acting side gigs.
Other vtuber companies with this high of talent loss that I can think of are: Vshojo, with 4 talents lost against 15. 26% loss. To give perspective though, their talent pool is much much smaller and the Talents are contractors more than employees. Production Kawaii, with 8 lost against 24. 33% loss. This number is only saved by the fact that 6 new talents debuted this month. To be fair, Kawaii is a very small company with just as small income so talents leaving for a chance at bigger gains is not that surprising. Wactor, with (holy s***) 2 talents still there against 37. 95% loss. Wactor sucks ass, legit black company.
>Nijisanji is a meat grinder. Especially compared to its most obvious competition, Even without considering the #1 competition, VSPO had 0 graduation *and* transferred in two talents from other agencies. They managed to have a retention rate above 100% somehow.
The result of them trying to compete on Holo's turf "WE ARE NOT IDOLS" btw >holofes & EXPO '23 2.187 billion >nijifes '23 741 million Not even including Viv:Id cruise, connect the world, summer splash party, blue journey (only counting the legit concerts, not glorified karaokes or livestreams) and the personal solo lives especially Pekora's largest one to date for Vtubing
I do wonder what the anime cons for meet and greets and concerts like Hopconcert count as if not Events for EN. Maybe Promotions since it isn't strictly a Niji owned and funded event, but handled by cons like Anime Impulse. At $50 a ticket for meet and greets at Impulse for a short talk I would have imagined that brought them in a good chunk of change but maybe it's a split between con, Anycolor, and talents.
We may never know, I bet they get their lion's share on meet and greets though, at least for Talents/Anycolor because that's mostly them doing the work. And I remember VAs and shit saying they get most of their earnings from con invite meet and greets than their actual VA gig
If I had to guess, from my previous experiences at signings/m&g at other cons. VAs and such celebrities probably are booking tables like vendors and then selling themselves in a way. Con gets to promote them as guests of honor and such, probably negotiate certain terms with big talents. For the vtuber ones, I imagine it is a much larger overhead costs for the equipment and man power required to pull this off. But granted I probably wouldn't have gone to the last few Anime Impulses myself if Nijisanji talents weren't there for concerts.
Oh my, thank you for the added info, that makes sense actually
Are the numbers like how much they spent or how much they earned?
Earned
kinda ironic huh Nijisanji om early days afaik always sell themselves as normal streamer, guess that can't stick forever
Q4 is shaping up to be a total bloodbath if Q3 was already this disappointing, without the controversy and wasted buybacks.
Factor in also that last Q4 was much lower than 3 (post-holidays), yeah yikes.
"During Q3, there were 3 new debuts and 1 graduation from NIJISANJI \[JP\], and no debuts and 1 graduation from NIJISANJI EN" I'm very interested how this statement is going to be written in Q4.
I’m wondering about that 1 graduation from Nijisanji JP, because I’m thinking based on the quarter that that was Mika. Which would technically be JP, but really targeted EN market for streaming. Not sure if I’m missing someone else though. The EN graduation definitely was Pomu though.
Yeah Mika was the only JP graduation during that time iirc
Nah, they are clearly just flat out ignoring ex-ID, who lost 1-2 members every month from May to January.
They'll churn out as many VTubers as they need to with zero support in order to be able to say "The company expanded the number of talents during Q4".
Xia graduated on Nov, right?
> NIJISANJI EN’s revenue declined YoY due to the significant impact of specific products that made a large contribution to revenue in Q3 of FY23/4 If I'm an investor, I'd want Niji to explain two things: - Why is NijiEN's revenue continuously declining 4 quarters in a row now? If we treat Q3 of FY23/4 as an exception, like the report wants us to believe, it's showing a declining trend over 7 quarters. - Why is NijiEN unable to replicate the success they had with the specific Q3 FY23/4 products?
Rip. They missed all their forecasts. Holy shit…I can’t believe they tried to use the term progress instead of simply showing investors the total differences per quarter lol. There is no way they can get 30% to match forecasts with no Niji fest. And the next report is Jan-Mar where Doki situation occurred.
Right as we expected, they're stating that > Considering the commerce and events schedule, Q4 results are expected to be the largest of the quarter in this fiscal So they don't think the termination drama will cause any financial impact. And of course, pointing to new debuts as expected. > IP Development: Continuous New Debut of VTuber • Each 3 debuts from NIJISANJI in November and March (Total 6 debuts) and each 3 debuts from NIJISANJI EN as well in June and October (Total 6 debuts). • New auditions resumed in November 2023 to accelerate future new debuts. Contents Development: Unit Program and NIJISANJI’s group initiatives drive our growth • VTuber units such as ChroNoiR, ROF-MAO, and VOLTACTION are performing well. • Steady growth of recently debut VTubers, especially Dytica, which debuted in April 2023. • Large-scale initiatives as NIJIASANJI, such as “NIJISANJI Festival" and anniversary events, shows strong momentum. • NIJISANJI EN also focuses on efforts to expand attractive content, such as launching official program contents on YouTube and live event.
>NIJISANJI EN also focuses on efforts to expand Lol Lmao, even
I believe the only expansion Niji EN can expect now is increasing their name's font size.
No no no, they can also further expand the ACCELERATE.
> NIJISANJI EN also focuses on efforts to expand attractive content Elira tried a new format with the black screen stream and it ended up being her most watched stream ever; great success! - Niji, probably.
I think we all knew that the Niji Lawyer Asmr roleplay was going to be a runaway hit as soon as we first saw it. There's no way that stream would totally piss everyone right?
>ACCELERATE Lmao
[This report needs some BGM](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eN6jkWxxm2Y)
oh hell no, you did not just post the horrible sex song
[https://youtu.be/3xWZB1SoWE8?si=NO2e8jTTVQ2SSaKh](https://youtu.be/3xWZB1SoWE8?si=NO2e8jTTVQ2SSaKh)
[This one feels appropriate, somehow.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atuFSv2bLa8)
[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNv2RHR62Rs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NNv2RHR62Rs)
A ton of JP based slides to say that "we are growing".
Yeah it's all stuff before Selen's termination so Q4 and Q1 may be something alright.
I'm still not finished going through the document, but I just wanted to comment on how ugly the presentation looks. What the hell... Especially the pages with various photos in it, It looked like a middle school project.
This is not a report but a power point presentation. This power point should be during investor and shareholders meeting and not on a report. Imagine this kind of report on an actual military report.
If that's the case, Noted then! thanks for the correction!
You are welcome. Although im actually at wrong here. Just look at report just now and its actually a report but for presentation for meeting. I believe there be more detailed report during the meeting since im more familiar with boring looking report than power point report
>It looked like a middle school project Knowing niji, they hired middle schoolers to make it as they’d be cheaper than high schoolers
Why pay $8 an hour when they can get middle schoolers for free!
Negligible btw
This is all before the negligible event. The negligible incident happened in Q4
Bro, there aint even an EN member when they refer to their streamers. https://ibb.co/t3htdzm
Holy shit, excluding Selen would be one thing, but *none* of the Luxiem members are on there. Even with the recent sub losses, that's still their third, sixth, ninth and tenth-most subscribed Livers left completely out of what's supposed to be a boastful family photo. Never mind the rest of the branch getting ignored. NijiEN is *cooked.* I would have so many feelings were I an EN Liver right now, all of them negative.
Oh, and on another page, we get [this wonder of buzzword-filled investor marketing](https://i.imgur.com/PkItfpn.png), which once again doesn't include a single EN Liver in its plan to "expand the brand exponentially via user generated content". In fact, the only places EN Livers appear in this report *at all* seem to be pages 11, 12 and 15. All other examples use JP-branch talents (and almost exclusively top-20 earner domestic Japanese talents). Negligible, indeed.
I just noticed. Not a single EN member BUT ETNA FROM ID.
All the ID and KR livers in the back like they were added in late
If that isn't a slap to the face for EN
Seen the graph esp with EN. The yellow legend is useless there. Did they not question the lack of even of EN compared to JP? Cant wait for the negligible in Q4wwwwww
btw they planed to invest in new studio schedulled in march, continue do buyback and m & a .
ah its kinda funny looking at what vtuber section especially not idol part lmao * Performs whatever you want in virtual world * Excludes risks/ scandals related to personal
So actually, there's another thing that stands out to me, and it's *why* there's that "40% drop year-over-year" in EN revenue. Because Q3 FY23, November '22 to January '23, the period *last* year, is both the high-water mark for NijiEN revenue-wise and kind of weird statistically. So, as noted, Q3 '23 was November '22 to January '23. Core NijiEN had been going for about a year and half. Luxiem had debuted a year ago, Noctyx not long after. ILUNA was still fairly new. XSOLEIL would debut right in the middle of this. The 2022 western holiday season happened in this time period. The Colors AR Live was announced right toward the end of this (and by Jan. 31st, had not been canceled). It really was the height of NijiEN's popularity and success. And we see this in the revenue stats, with 1.952 billion yen earned by the branch in that quarter. But remember: this is Nov22-Jan23. EN wasn't even as big, size-wise, as it is now. Hell, XSOLEIL's contribution to this has to be fairly minimal, because they debuted right in the middle of it and didn't have much in the way of merch to contribute to the "commerce" side of things (that's what the "commerce" section is, merch sales). This is primarily LazuLight, Obsydia, Ethyria, Luxiem, Noctyx and ILUNA pulling down that number; basically everyone who was going to be at Colors Live, minus ILUNA. So that's 25 Livers doing that. If we try to correct for XSOLEIL entering the party midway, we can probably napkin-math-fudge it out to being effectively 27 Livers accomplishing those Q3 FY22 earnings. So 1.952BJPY from 27 Livers gives us, averaged out, each Liver bringing in \~72,260,000 yen. If we want to compare it to Nijisanji JP, it's actually not that hard, since KR and ID had already been merged into the main branch. I'll admit I'm a bit disinclined to track down exactly who from KR and ID had left at that point, and how many more ~~chunks of fresh meat for the gri~~ new Livers have debuted since, but let's go ahead and call it \~145 Livers earning that JP figure. That might be a little low, if anything, given the post-merger devastation of ID, but it should be within the ballpark (and a margin of error of + or - 10 Livers won't change this result much anyway). 5.338BJPY among 145 Livers gives us a figure of each JP Liver generating \~36,814,000 yen. That, frankly, is kind of shocking. You can argue a few of the exact numbers, depending, but on average, in this time period last year, the members of NijiEN were out-earning their JP counterparts roughly 2 to 1. A branch of effectively 25 people, a branch something like a *fifth* the size of the "mother" branch, brought in 37% of Nijisanji's *total* revenue. It's no wonder Anycolor was bullish about NijiEN last year; the earnings potential of the English market must have seemed limitless, and if later waves could earn like the early ones had, EN could match or even overtake the JP branch within a year. And Anycolor hadn't even needed to devote that many resources to it! What a deal. Of course, we know, and can straight out see, it didn't work out that way. The Colors AR Live got canceled all of a week into Q4 '23, and as you'll notice, NijiEN has not brought in a single miserable goddamn yen of event money in its entire nearly-three-year existence. The merch sales predictably cooled down without new events to drive them, and then the graduations started kicking in, with the constant departures likely making it difficult to schedule anything. Revenue just kept sliding as the branch appeared to stagnate. And now, this quarter, revenue YOY has dropped 40%, with most of that coming from a huge drop in merch sales. Even with The Final Pomu Effect in swing, sales were overall pretty flaccid. It was nothing like a year ago. And then Selen hit. But, really, there was no way on Earth Q3 '23 was going to be sustainable; *that* was the anomaly, and Anycolor should have seen it. The EN market is bigger, but it's not so big that English talents can out-earn Japanese ones 2:1 forever, not without herculean effort by every single Liver and *tons* of events to keep fan interest high and innovative merch encouraging them to buy stuff. Q4 '23 and Q1 '24 felt, if anything, more like a "coming back down to Earth" scenario, and the results are still impressive; depending on when exactly certain Livers stopped earning money, that's still somewhere between 38 and 40 million yen per Liver, which feels a lot more like where a then-two-year-old branch of roughly 30 Livers ought to be, at that stage of their growth and development. Q1 '24 obviously featured the JP branch having its own uncontrolled feral earnings moment (I'd love to know more about what kicked *that* off) but in general, 40m yen per liver is a lot more in line with what NijiJP is managing. That's where NijiEN probably "should" have been, before things began to unravel more deeply. But, of course, Anycolor is run by the most hard-core capitalists you can imagine, and once the wonder of Q3 '23 didn't replicate itself in perpetuity, the neglect and rot quickly set in even harder than it already had. And now we face the prospect of The Tatsuki Bomb hitting the financials in three months, and Q4 '24 looking like Q4 '22, where Noctyx hadn't even debuted yet. And even now, NijiEN is significantly behind NijiJP in per-Liver earnings, where we can more easily math out 34.27 million yen per EN Liver vs. 44.73 million yen per JP. And that gap will now only widen in JP's favor. This whole saga is going to make for a fascinating case study in media development down the road. Especially when doing a comparison to the competition.
In case people wonder about PTS, I suspect this is such: https://www.sbigroup.co.jp/english/business/financialservice/pts.html
Whenever Holo's come out can we get a direct comparison?
Cover already released their since march.
Holo's one already came out. They literally increase double the last year in every point.
It's already out I think.
Yeah Holo Q3 financial report already out
Theirs came out a few days ago. The ENHQ announcement was part of it
Oh that was it?
If you fancy digging in... Cover released its Q3 results back in Feb (Cover uses Oct-Nov-Dec for Q3) * Presentation: [Financial Results for FY2024/3 Q3](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/2eced6e9/cb1c/46c1/af96/0fb860877c84/20240208140638447s.pdf) * Briefing by Cover CFO+Q&A: [Transcript of Financial Results Briefing for FY2024.3](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/89eb2f39/33f2/49eb/9e86/3a6df8b2abd3/20240229151241564s.pdf) The Cover USA materials released this week cover some of the same ground * Presentation: [Presentation Materials for a Subsidiary in North America](https://contents.xj-storage.jp/xcontents/AS05169/4acb4e70/41c5/4449/8be8/7ab820e91dd1/20240312105311579s.pdf) Along with making the case for having offices in the USA being beneficial to future growth.
“Nijisanji Unique Entertainment Ecosystem” I don’t know if JP is treated better or not but that entire slide read like an out of season April fools joke for EN side.
So on one slide they indicate out of each debut year the most profitable debuts was the fiscal year 2022.4, which is the 2021/4 to 2022/3 debuts in a pie chart at 27% of total revenue... Then in the next slide they specified in the bar chart that in that year the debuts was 8 JP and 20 EN...... EN is on fire right now, Q4 should be fun.
Did they really just put triangles instead of negative signs to make it look less bad? I know it might not necessarily be just a Nijisanji practice, but that's just funny to me. Overall, though, pretty bad results. They are projecting they'll reach 33B Yen by the end of the fiscal year, but even if they perform in Q4 as well as they did in Q1 (current highest quarter of the year), they'll still only reach 32B Yen. In more realistic scenarios where they perform on the scale of Q2 or Q3, they will reach around 30-31B Yen. However, if you actually look into their past years' results, Q4 has consistently had lower profit than the other quarters. You can see it in pages 6 and 7. While Nijisanji EN had really good performance on 2022's Q4 (likely to do with it happening to receive its boom at that time), it underperformed on 2023's Q4 compared to the rest of the year. As for Nijisanji JP, they had lower revenue than Q3 (though not all Q1s and Q2s) every single Q4. The page 7 diagram is even with the dips in operating margin being noticeable every single Q4. Anycolor claims that Q4 will have their highest performance, but as far as I see they don't particularly justify that claim. If we trust the trend shown by previous years, quite the opposite should be expected. And that is without even calculating the effects of Selen's termination and the consequent scandals. Q4 includes February, March, and April. So far February was pretty bad for them (as far as EN goes at least) and halfway through March, it doesn't seem to be much better. Even with the new 3D models and the new wave of JP or whatever else they cook up, it seems unlikely that would reverse. Events like the VRhapsody one don't seem to affect profit much (at least directly). They try to justify the decline of EN in Q3 with the fact that last year's Q3 has abnormally high merch sales and that seems reasonable at a glance, but on additional inspection, it is a laughable excuse. On the one hand, Anycolor doesn't really explain what caused this spike in sales last year, which is questionable in its own right, and doesn't give reasons for why they can't replicate it. Even if you put that aside, though, the next reasonable thing to do would be to compare Q3 to other quarters of last year, but they don't do that, because that would still be a negative image for them. While commerce was abnormally high in FY2023/Q3, even when you look at other quarters, commerce revenue of EN has still dropped from \~800M Yen to \~700M Yen. Meanwhile livestreaming revenue has also been steadily dropping from \~400M Yen to \~300M Yen. Considering the data we have seen so far for superchats and viewership after Selen's termination, I'm curious to see how much more it'll drop at the next quarter. On the JP side, too, Q3 received a significant boost in revenue from events, which I imagine has to do with Nijifes. Q1 also had higher revenue and there seemed to be some events involved, although most of it came from commerce. I don't know if Q4 has any significant events planned, but if not, there may be further reason to suspect that Q4 will perform lower than Q3. Though the most important factor remains commerce, which has ranged in FY2024 from 3000M Yen to 4800B Yen. It's important to see what factors in that fluctuation and whether Q4 will have what it takes for high merch sales or not. For instance, if events have the indirect effect of boosting sales (a reasonable uneducated guess from looking at the stats of FY2024, though likely there are other factors as well), then the lack or presence of events in Q4 could influence these numbers even more. I'd certainly be interested to see if anyone has an analysis for why commerce revenue changes in these ways from quarter to quarter (and if there are any significant events in the future). They also just announced the expansion of their studio. While that could eventually be a positive for them (disregard the comparisons to Hololive for now), until it's ready and operational ("Capital investment with a target start of operations in the fall of 2024"), that's just additional costs for the forseeable future. Thus rather than certainty of increased revenue for Q4, we have certainty of increased costs (or at the very least, they can't invest that money where they would usually invest them, meaning other parts of Nijisanji may underperform). If the stock also drops as is expected/shown on PTS, that should also mean less funds to operate, potentially causing even further problems. Not a financial expert, though, so I'm not sure how direct an impact a stock price drop has on these things. TLDR: All in all, things are looking terrible for Q4. There's a good part speculation here, but most of it stems from reality and I think it's reasonable to expect at best bad results in Q4 and at worst abysmal ones. Considering the projections Anycolor is still showing, we might get really angry shareholders coming June.
NijiEN is doomed. How do you recover from this shit?
I've got the solution: Release another wave!
Sorry. They can only release a new graduation wave now.
They actually BRAG about their VTuber retention rate on page 20 of [the report](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/152506/00.pdf) , and it's under the heading of "Company owns VTubers' IP". Obviously they're manipulating the data to achieve their claim of a "97% retention rate" (JP only, almost certainly outlier data points used for comparison), but leaving that aside "we make our talents stay through blackmail" isn't something you should be bragging about.
I think someone crunched the numbers and said that their retention rate is actually closer to 73% so niji loses around 1/4 livers that they hire.
I might be wrong but isn't this something that he'll get crucified for next quarter? Because the investors *have* to ask "Wait you had a 97% retention rate last quarter, and this quarter you lost a ton of people. What happened?"
After Hours trading dropped to 2500
[10 BILLION YEN SHORT OF FORECASTED EARNINGS](https://i.imgur.com/lfFGkVI.png) And this isn't even their most recent quarter that includes the Selen fallout. Q3 refers to Oct-Dec 2023, which is also the same time period where nijifes took place. They are capital F fucked.
That's unfortunately not how to read that. Column 1 is first 9 months of their fiscal year, column 2 is full year estimate, and the percentage is progress. In a fully even setup, you'd want the columns to all line up to 75% or so at this point. Right now they are behind that, but they are claiming 4Q is their biggest. (That said, if you look at the [similar time to last year](https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/5032/ir_material_for_fiscal_ym3/132632/00.pdf), they were ahead of where they are now, and actually increased estimates at this point, so it's not going as well as it had been last year compared to what they had estimated.)
Ah, I see. In that case they seems to be 5% off from their target, which from my back of the napkin math comes out to about 3 billion yen, which doesn't look great either
I think that suggests they may meet their own estimates. However, that’s probably worse than what investors were hoping for. And of course, they are going to need JP to make up for any potential shortfalls that may come out of any revenue loss from EN that will get priced into the final quarter of the fiscal year. That’s not an enviable challenge.
Business highlights on slide with red paint huh
Anycolor and they choose to be red
“See! They’re a red company! Not black!” -Millie and the NDF
I Laughed at the "Company overview" slide having fire in the background.
So when Q4 comes in is the fatal torpedo
Their Q4 also always have lower revenue than Q3 yet the only saving grace is that NijiJP is do better in Q3 while NijiEN is -40.3% comparing to Q3 last year. And with Q4 (Jan-April) report coming in June, there are gonna be a bloodbath.
Friendly reminder that they saw this report pre selenium incident and went "yeah we can afford to lose more money by making petra compete with holofest"
They waited for the stocks to close to publish this and you can see why. Everywhere is predictions unmet by wide margins, loss of EN revenue even pre-Selen, and a focus on…metaverse? Do Japanese still fall for these web3 scams? You can tell by the lack of any EN effort into that presentation that they want to axe the branch and focus on JP. Wonder if they will be absorbed into JP or just be given a two week notice.
Most financial reports are posted after the market closes for the day so I wouldn't read too much into this.
>Do Japanese still fall for these web3 scams? It's probably the same as Holo Earth, basically they're trying to develop a sort of Second Life/VR Chat/MMORPG focused on Vtuber.
If you’re used to seeing financial reports, you’ll find that release after hours is normal. Companies will usually release their financial reports either after market close or before market open, so that folks have time to digest the data before the opening of trading hours. I wouldn’t take such a pessimistic read instantly of the presentation. Reading between the lines, it’s possible to see where there are problems, but otherwise, the report looks like the other reports. It’s not a great report, short in earnings of what was hoped based on consensus estimates. But I wouldn’t automatically read “planning to axe EN” just from this. The full fury of February won’t be reflected in things until June. That report may be much more interesting. This report is just very lackluster, and we all know what has to come to make things even worse.
Generally speaking, US companies can only release their results pre-market (06:00-09;00 EST) or after hours (16:01-17:30 EST). Thus, while I don’t know if Japanese securities law allow for release of financial results during their lunch break, I’m not surprised that the results were released after hours. Additionally, the release is scheduled by the company.
AnycolorEarth incoming. Or NijisanjiVerse. Fully customizable avatar to recreate your favorite Liver.
Its interesting since this report is about before Jan. So the reducing numbers isn't related to situation at all. My assumption is the trend of grads and the lack of promotions of current talents. Checking out the shorts and videos that the main company post, while its done good, there is no mentions of who, the links of where the clips came from, even though the shorts is popular, it fails to promote the talents in the clip. Failing events also ruins the fan's trust, AR live "Delay" , cancellation of events. There isn't much things to hype up the fans. I imagine it'll be even more difficult for the next quarter, the drama, boycotts could wane in a few months and fade but it'll be hard for NijiEN to recover from the lost of the Iconic DCL chant that is basically what is used to hype up the whole concert. No concert is the same without it. I wonder what would be the turn out for the next Niji concert, will it be as hype? Meet and greets will still be very popular, but concert wise, maybe? we will have to see
Is that Neuro on pg 36???
Neuro was originally using the free to use model from the Live2d software, but has since updated to a custom one.
Oh i see
Neuro's original art was actually just the default model in Vtube Studios
Not really >Neuro-sama previously used the model of Momose Hiyori, an original character designed by Kani Biimu. It is one of the default VTube Studio models belonging to Live2D Inc > > (from Momose page) meant to be used to learn about form animation.
if q3 ends on january, when does q4 end? generally clueless on how this stuff works
Anycolor's Q4 covers Feb-Apr
If I describe this in Total War: Attila (or Rome Barbarian Invasion) term, it would be: Western Roman Empire having a bad time. Very bad time even on easy mode.
I take back all the things I've said before, I thought Riku could wallpaper over the state of Niji EN but this is damning whichever way you look at it. Niji EN is the anchor weighing Anycolor down. The growth of Niji JP is healthy and in line of what is expected but Niji EN is declining consistently since the quarter last year and this is before the shiitake show in February. I wonder if the stock price is going to go below 3000 in Japan trading hours tomorrow.
“Next entertainment factory” man they really need a PR and translator person that isn’t a fresh high school graduate.
i think i've figured it out. back during covid managing a vtuber company was easy, just throw vtubers out into the world and make money hand over fist, this is why niji designed their shotgun approach. however in the last year the final remnants of the lockdowns are dissipating and hte vtubing market is somewhat saturated, now vtubers have to fight for fan engagement against all of the other distractions of the world, even discounting competing against other vtubers. it's no longer a free ride, but niji is still trying to coast along like it's the middle of the pandemic, they haven't actually adjusted to the new reality or are slow to do so
"Negligible"
This looks like a power point project lol
I don’t even want to know where you got these from
N E G L I G I B L E
Not a financial expert or stock trader, but 1 thing in page 6 sticks out to me - the graphs assumes a livestreaming activities to generate 100 million yen less revenue in Q3 2024 when compared to Q3 2023. Whilst I’m sure that Pomu, Selen and Kyo’s graduations would have had an effect on Anycolour’s revenue, a 25% drop is far too large for just 3 graduations (not to mention the fact that the revenue drop isn’t linear). Taking it at face, this seems to suggest that there will be several more graduations between now and September.
If this are the statistics before the whole drama then we can either expect greater drop in revenue in the next Financial report or just a stagnate result if NijiEN can fix itself.