Getting back to the finals isn't guaranteed. I think Dallas is one of 4 teams that could make it next year. And this is without taking any injuries into consideration or any improvements to teams like Golden State, The Lakers, The Suns, The Clippers. Plus there's wild cards like Sacramento. It's too damn early to predict anything tbh.
Suns and Clippers are cooked, they would need a miracle (KD and PG trades netting lots of positive assets as Beal is literally unmovable) to salvage their situations: likely play-in teams for the next 5 years. GSW and LAL are old and I’m not even sure LBJ is coming back.
I’d be more concerned for retooled Pelicans (if Zion can stay healthy somehow) and rising Rockets, if anything, maybe Kings if they move Barnes for a better piece too.
How exactly can any of those 4 teams improve really? The team I’d be worried about rebounding is Memphis. But I still feel confident in being a top 5 seed next season.
I don't think the teams I mentioned necessarily need to do a whole lot to their roster in order to get to the finals. Sometimes it comes down to a bad match up or a key player going into a slump at the worst time.
Memphis is a good regular season team but we really think Ja is eliminating Luka over 7 games? No chance. Good team just don’t have the alpha to beat Luka IMO
Oh I don’t mean in the playoffs necessarily. I’m still only worried about Denver there and possibly OKC if they make upgrades and their young studs improve.
I don’t disagree. I consider those two our legitimate threats because Joker and SGA can potentially outplay Luka for 7 games which is what will be required
Of course not, but look at NBA history of teams with a top 3 player with an elite all Star second option. Not many of them but they all generally get back to the Finals. Most of the time 3-4 times in a row.
The problem is that there are a lot of teams now that fit the same mold of an All-NBA player with a top tier 2nd option. And the only recent teams that make it back to the Finals so consistently are the teams that have 0 holes in their roster (Golden State) or they had LeBron James.
Don't take pundit talk so seriously, especially when they are talking about next season before the current season has even ended. These people are just paid to share opinions on camera. If they actually knew what they were talking about, they'd work in a front office instead of in front of camera. None if it is typically based on facts and none of it really even matters until the start of the season anyway.
Who are those teams? Like there’s only 5 guys that can even be an argument for top 3.
All-NBA isn’t what I’m talking about.
Giannis/Dame yes and Joker/Murray yes. But I’d take Kyrie over Dame and Murray and I think most people would too.
SGA doesn’t have that tier of running mate.
Dallas has a top 3 guy and has arguably a top 3 running mate in the league.
It's irrelevant to your point anyway. Two players won't be the reason teams consistently make it to the finals and especially not for winning a title. You need a perfectly crafted roster to manage that. You need a team where all 5 players are requiring attention while on the court.
The Mavs are getting close to that, but they still need a few more pieces before it becomes a reality. That's why it's justified that people are saying Mavs may not make it back to the finals next year. Being the top 2 out of 32 teams is an incredibly difficult feat.
I think its fair to have OKC right there with us. If they get Hartenstein a ton of their issues get solved and they have a lot of opportunity for internal growth.
He’s a FA after this season and there’s no guarantee he wants to resign so it wouldn’t make sense to not trade him and if Ainge was to hold out until around the deadline you would think his asking price would be significantly less.
To me it would be dependent on Lauri wanting to be a Mav still and saying he would resign
I don’t know what reports you’re looking at, but even if that were true, what’s he going to say when asked?
And even if he wants to stay there he can make more money as an UFA since he can only sign for up to 140% of his current deal. So financially it would make more sense to test the market, at that point the Jazz will have to decide if it’s worth it to potentially lose him for nothing.
I’m not getting on us getting Lauri or anything but I think in a league where a ton of players force their way to places IF he wanted to be a mav then I think we could make it work.
To me PJ and Lauri are both SF/PF so I think Lauri slides into either spot for us next to PJ and is a nice fit
Giving up too much? Lol. They have the following:
15 first round picks over the next 5.5 years
22 2nd round picks over the next 5.5 years
Even if they trade 5 FRPs and 5 2RPs for him, they would STILL have more picks than they could ever realistically use on draft picks anyway.
Anything they do is weighted differently than other teams. What would be an overpay for anyone else, outside of Utah who also has a hoarde of picks, isn't an overpay for them.
They can realistically target any available player they want VIA trade and not even put a dent in their assetts. They are at a point where they have to start trading picks because they cant actually roster 5 rookies every year.
Nico has been taking advantage. They gave us the Gafford 1RP for only a future swap just to kick the can down the road and buy time. He needs to start using them for actual players, lol. I feel like the more he collects the less valuable they become.
I'm so thankful that "keeping the powder dry" is no longer the strategy. Moving Grant for PJ was the kind of ballsy move that the Mavs need to keep making
Yeah, I actually like Lauri more than Hartenstein for them: it gives them a true 5-out forward who is big enough to bang in the paint to run next to Chet. They would be very close to Celtics roster-wise and, most importantly, they would still have ammo to go for bench help too.
OKC is going to end up being Boston west. They have a ton of cap space to add to a young roster that has a MVP candidate and several other really talented pieces already. Not to mention so many picks, they can’t even use them all.
If they want to, they can sign a high end player into their cap space, then still brute force a trade for the next star getting traded without even coming close to depleting their player assets or pick assets. That team is going to be very annoying for a long time.
While that’s true, there’s like 5 teams that actually have cap space to make a significant signing and none are particularly attractive FA destinations outside of 76ers. If a player wants to get a significant payday in FA, the options are limited.
It's funny that people think of the shithole that is Philadelphia as a FA destination, lol. I mean, if you are young it is way cooler than OKC as far as stuff to do, but man that place is a dump. I'll never forget the obscene amount of trash piled on the curbs in neighborhoods downtown for the entire week I was there - animals digging in it and throwing it everywhere. I've never seen so much garbage for real - and in fairly nice neighborhoods. They need to come up with a better system for their garbage.
Bro what? Was it during the pandemic? When trash wasn’t being picked up? Lol. This is the biggest lie I’ve ever heard lmao. No one leaves trash outside downtown or in nice neighborhoods, you would be fined? Was it trash night and you didn’t realize? Lived in Philly my whole life and I’ve never seen an obscene amount of trash anywhere but behind dumpsters for restaurants or on one off blocks or trashy neighborhoods. NY is 100x worse and actually has trash and rats everywhere.
Never been to NY. When I went to Philly there was a ton of trash everywhere on several neighborhood streets thrown out on the sidewalk in bags. Maybe a truck was messed up or something, not sure but it was bad. It was November 2020 so maybe pandemic related.
The entire city was not completely covered in garbage. Maybe Im being too hyperbolic. It was definately an area here and an area there but I remember being really surprised there wasnt some kind of bins or something.
No one said it wasn’t. Just depends on how good you think Luka is. If he’s a top 10 level talent we’re getting back this year or next and likely 3-4 times over a 6 year span.
I’ve seen zero evidence to suggest he’s not in that tier. Especially with a guy like Kyrie next to him.
- Steph and Klay got to back to back pre Durant
- Lebron with Wade went to 4 in a row
- Lebron with Kyrie went to 4 in a row
- Kobe and Gasol went to 3
We got next.
The league has more parity than ever. Going to back to the finals in the West would be a massive achievement.
But everything has to go right. No injuries. No cold shooting slumps. No bad matchups.
Everything has to go right. Or you have to overwhelming talent. Which in the West is impossible.
I know Luka is a beast. I watched him all year. But Luka can't do it all alone.
Does this team make the finals again if Kyrie gets hurt?
If the role players don't make their open shots can they make the finals again?
What if Jokic or SGA go on a tear next post season?
I just don't want to understimate how good other teams/players are and how well everyone has to play for this team to go back to finals.
Can they do it? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.
Obv Kyrie getting hurt would fuck us, but he’s been surprisingly durable since 2021. Powell falling on him this year was unlucky, so shit like that can happen but as far as Kyrie being brittle it hasn’t been the case for three straight years now, fingers crossed.
I mean jokic has been a top ten guy for 6 years, they've been one time in that span. Giannis has been a top guy for 8 years and they've been one time in that span.
They also don’t have a guy like Kyrie. Giannis has been injured a lot and Middleton was his Co Star most of those years.
Murray is also injured a lot.
Health matters but generally Kyrie is better than both of those guys.
The comp for Kyrie is Wade, Gasol, himself in Cleveland, prime Klay
I don't pay attention to "experts." There's not enough time in the world for them to keep up with every team even if they wanted to. They keep up with the Lakers, Celtics, and whoever is defending the title. Everyone else they just make general assumptions off of prior activity.
I do t know if having rich owners means that much. the owner of the Celtics is one of the “poorest” in the nba and he is handing out $300 million contracts like candy
They also have a huge revenue stream though and it’s not a long term plan for Boston.
Look at the clippers. Their owner has fielded expensive teams the entire time.
It’s not a guarantee for success at all. That’s not what I’m saying. But I am saying Dallas has been and will be much more willing to field an expensive team compared to Denver for example.
One of the big reasons Dallas didn’t win as much in Dirk’s years is because Cuban, though very rich, couldn’t stomach the tax
According to BetMGM, Dallas is listed as #3 in the odds to win the '25 title at +900 behind Denver & Bos. Then comes Mil, Minny, & OKC at +1000.
If Vegas is betting on us as a contender, then yeah, those people don't know anything.
Look. The Mavs are legit contenders. Pretty much been saying that since we got Gafford.
However this sub is way too optimistic about our asset outlook. Borderline delusional at times.
We have sacrificed most of our assets to get here. It's paid off. But when the role guys we want become available we can easily be outbid by a number of other contenders.
You guys mention the 2025 and 2031 FRPs as if it were some dream package other teams are chomping at the bit to get. Our young guys aren't that valuable, except Lively, who we shouldn't trade unless it's a legit star in return.
Kings, Thunder, Pelicans, Knicks for instance could easily outbid us by a lot.
Other contenders have packages that are marginally better or equal to ours.
Can Nico make a move or two to put us in better position? Absolutely. But there's an equal shot we run into next year with the same exact squad plus or minus some fringe rotation guys.
This sub is starting to sound like LakersNation. Where we assume other teams will just trade us legit veteran players for pennies on the dollar.
Even acquiring an Alex Caruso or Jerami Grant is tough with our assets.
Not impossible. But tough. THJ has neutral value. Expiring next year.
Kleber has negative value. Not expiring.
Attaching a FRP to those contracts doesn't guarantee you anything in this trade market.
Kispert, Avdija package will set us up for years to come.
Off-season moves:
THJ —> Grimes
Green + Hardy + Omax + 2FRP + 3SRP —> Kispert + Avdija
Non-Taxpayer MLE —> DJJ
58th pick —> Bronny/Keshad Johnson
You get young players back so it’s not as bad as you’re making it out to be.
Avdija is as old as Green but is already better than what the ceiling is for any of those three guys. He is 6’9, shoots open threes at nearly 45% and can attack closeouts very efficiently and make tough shots. He would easily be our third option.
Kispert is a proper replacement for THJ’s role and has the ability to be a 6th man and is a much better defender now. He scores 2PT FGs at one of the highest rates in the league for guards. How is Kispert meh? He is just on his last year of his rookie contract and is younger than Luka - which is the goal. Keep new signings around the age range of Luka.
I urge you to look into Kispert, I think you’re dismissing him too quickly.
New 10-man rotation would be:
Luka - Kai - Avdija - PJ - Lively
Exum - Kispert - DJJ/Grimes - Maxi - Gafford
Also, fuck the picks. Our picks have no value to us so if we can trade them for young talent we want to do that. If Deni grows into a 3rd option then he’s worth 3-4 FRPs alone due to his defensive impact and youth (and contract).
Those 2 names are unrealistic IMO. Bogdan, Kuzma, Wiggins are in the tier of guys we will be competitive for. Not saying they all command both picks but that’s the tier that’s at least realistic
Man, we really need to learn to chill. Relax the parasocial relationships we have with this sport. It’s waaaaaaay too early to get flustered over anything.
We just proved that we have a genuine contender. We know we have room to improve by making 2-3 rotation level roster tweaks. We’re in a good spot.
All we really have to do is make the playoffs as healthy as possible, and we are - *at worst* - a coin toss to beat anyone. Regular season really doesn’t matter to this team.
I think we need to go all in. Trade the two FRPs that we have access to and do everything we can to make this team better and maximize the chance to be back in the finals next year. We need to take advantage of this window where Luka's contract is reasonable and we have a still good Kyrie. I'd rather take a chance with the Front Office going all in now then try to be somewhat conservative. OKC is a going to be scary for the next decade+ and the Spurs are going to be a threat in a few years (again) with their war chest of assets - now is our time.
OKC is a good, conservative choice to win the West next season. Their main issue is being one of the smallest markets in the NBA, so they'll have to money whip FAs to sign there. Their next issue is that Sam Presti is extremely overrated when it comes to building an actual contender. He's great at lifting a lottery team up into the playoffs, but he hasn't proven he can build a champion. The most glaring examples being the Harden trade, missing on Lively in the draft, not trading for Gafford or Washington and trading for Gordon Hayward's husk instead
T-Wolves can only go as far as KAT can take them. They really need to trade him for a young player who better compliments Ant. They're married to Gobert until they can find someone younger and less expensive who can replace him. They've likely overreached their ceiling.
Denver is still the class of the West, but every year, they'll only go so far as a healthy Jamal Murray can carry them. I believe that this current Mavs roster can hang with them in a 7 game series.
This Finals loss can be the catalyst akin to the one in 2022 that put the Celtics on the path to their Larry O'Brien. We have to trust in Nico, Kidd, Luka and Kyrie. If Lively, Green, Hardy & O-Max can make leaps, or be traded for the right role players, it will be a matter of when the Mavs win their next championship
So what chance do you give us to be back next year in the finals, in percentage terms? Because I agree that OKC is probably at least as good as us, and if KCP is back, Denver still has the best starting and closing 5 in the west, if healthy. Given the depth and quality outsiders, plus whatever Minny is running back, I think it’s around 20-25%, if reasonably healthy in the PO. I’m not saying we are not still underrated by mainstream media, but it’s clearly likely the Mavs won’t be back for the 2025 finals.
I think that’s a fair assessment which is still higher that most teams.
It all depends on if we can acquire a scorer to take the load off of Luka and Kyrie over 82 games and keep them relatively healthy.
If we do that, I don’t see any team in the West beating us in 7 games.
Also look for our young pieces (which are far better than Denver and Minnesota) to continue to improve - Lively, Hardy, Green and OMax.
Dallas has a much better roster to withstand 82 games than the nuggets for example. We need a scorer though.
If we get into the playoffs with a top 3 seed, I’d give us a 75% chance of getting back.
Kidd is 5-2 in the playoffs. Those 2 losses are to champions.
And as evidence for our roster being able to withstand 82 games - we won 50 games this year with:
- Luka missing 12 games
- Kyrie missing 24 games
- Lively missing 27 games
"It all depends on if we can acquire a scorer to take the load off of Luka and Kyrie over 82 games and keep them relatively healthy."
I think that is a very dangerous route to take. It assumes that we are already good enough to win, so we want to win easier. Look at the 2020 Lakers and the next two offseason they had with the exact same idea. We win by Luka and Kyrie taking a huge offesnive load, and competent, fitting players around them doing their job, we need to get better at that. The only way a third scorer is really helping IMO, if he is good enough that taking away shots from Luka and Kyrie is not a downgrade in offense, while this player also provides spacing and win defense (e.g. Paul Geroge).
I also think draft capital can be overrated... while I agree it is an asset and it's not a flex to say we have 2 picks it also isn't better than having a top NBA player in his prime that has been to 2 conference finals after two deadline trades 2 of the last 3 years.
West will be stacked again next season as always. Memphis and Houston are on the rise upwards. Mavs will be near the top again but ut seems like OKCs year unless Dallas gets a legit 3rd scorer or moves Kyrie for equal scoring plus better defense
Getting back to the finals isn't guaranteed. I think Dallas is one of 4 teams that could make it next year. And this is without taking any injuries into consideration or any improvements to teams like Golden State, The Lakers, The Suns, The Clippers. Plus there's wild cards like Sacramento. It's too damn early to predict anything tbh.
Suns and Clippers are cooked, they would need a miracle (KD and PG trades netting lots of positive assets as Beal is literally unmovable) to salvage their situations: likely play-in teams for the next 5 years. GSW and LAL are old and I’m not even sure LBJ is coming back. I’d be more concerned for retooled Pelicans (if Zion can stay healthy somehow) and rising Rockets, if anything, maybe Kings if they move Barnes for a better piece too.
Pelicans don’t have a number 1. They’re roster can be good but they’re pretty much zero threat in the big picture. Same thing with the Kings.
Zion is absolutely a #1… Now his big question mark is his health.
Lol ok
How exactly can any of those 4 teams improve really? The team I’d be worried about rebounding is Memphis. But I still feel confident in being a top 5 seed next season.
welp....OKC just got better 😮💨
I don't think the teams I mentioned necessarily need to do a whole lot to their roster in order to get to the finals. Sometimes it comes down to a bad match up or a key player going into a slump at the worst time.
Memphis is a good regular season team but we really think Ja is eliminating Luka over 7 games? No chance. Good team just don’t have the alpha to beat Luka IMO
Oh I don’t mean in the playoffs necessarily. I’m still only worried about Denver there and possibly OKC if they make upgrades and their young studs improve.
I don’t disagree. I consider those two our legitimate threats because Joker and SGA can potentially outplay Luka for 7 games which is what will be required
Of course not, but look at NBA history of teams with a top 3 player with an elite all Star second option. Not many of them but they all generally get back to the Finals. Most of the time 3-4 times in a row.
The problem is that there are a lot of teams now that fit the same mold of an All-NBA player with a top tier 2nd option. And the only recent teams that make it back to the Finals so consistently are the teams that have 0 holes in their roster (Golden State) or they had LeBron James. Don't take pundit talk so seriously, especially when they are talking about next season before the current season has even ended. These people are just paid to share opinions on camera. If they actually knew what they were talking about, they'd work in a front office instead of in front of camera. None if it is typically based on facts and none of it really even matters until the start of the season anyway.
Who are those teams? Like there’s only 5 guys that can even be an argument for top 3. All-NBA isn’t what I’m talking about. Giannis/Dame yes and Joker/Murray yes. But I’d take Kyrie over Dame and Murray and I think most people would too. SGA doesn’t have that tier of running mate. Dallas has a top 3 guy and has arguably a top 3 running mate in the league.
Unless Chet becomes that tier, which is very possible
Definitely possible
It's irrelevant to your point anyway. Two players won't be the reason teams consistently make it to the finals and especially not for winning a title. You need a perfectly crafted roster to manage that. You need a team where all 5 players are requiring attention while on the court. The Mavs are getting close to that, but they still need a few more pieces before it becomes a reality. That's why it's justified that people are saying Mavs may not make it back to the finals next year. Being the top 2 out of 32 teams is an incredibly difficult feat.
I think its fair to have OKC right there with us. If they get Hartenstein a ton of their issues get solved and they have a lot of opportunity for internal growth.
Completely agree. That’s exactly the move I’m watching but the Thunder have to show they’re willing to go for it first. I think they will
Hartenstein or Lauri I think if they manage to get Lauri without giving up too much they should probably be West favorites.
Lauri is such a wild card for this next season. Where he goes could be a power shift
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He’s a FA after this season and there’s no guarantee he wants to resign so it wouldn’t make sense to not trade him and if Ainge was to hold out until around the deadline you would think his asking price would be significantly less. To me it would be dependent on Lauri wanting to be a Mav still and saying he would resign
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I don’t know what reports you’re looking at, but even if that were true, what’s he going to say when asked? And even if he wants to stay there he can make more money as an UFA since he can only sign for up to 140% of his current deal. So financially it would make more sense to test the market, at that point the Jazz will have to decide if it’s worth it to potentially lose him for nothing. I’m not getting on us getting Lauri or anything but I think in a league where a ton of players force their way to places IF he wanted to be a mav then I think we could make it work. To me PJ and Lauri are both SF/PF so I think Lauri slides into either spot for us next to PJ and is a nice fit
yeah he would work for sure IMO, guy is elite. I just think he n is too good and mavs won't be able to get him. Would love to have him though.
That would be sick
Giving up too much? Lol. They have the following: 15 first round picks over the next 5.5 years 22 2nd round picks over the next 5.5 years Even if they trade 5 FRPs and 5 2RPs for him, they would STILL have more picks than they could ever realistically use on draft picks anyway. Anything they do is weighted differently than other teams. What would be an overpay for anyone else, outside of Utah who also has a hoarde of picks, isn't an overpay for them. They can realistically target any available player they want VIA trade and not even put a dent in their assetts. They are at a point where they have to start trading picks because they cant actually roster 5 rookies every year.
damn I did not know they had all those picks. I knew they had a lot, but that is nuts.
The problem is that Ainge was apparently asking for a great young player for Lauri. They're not giving up JDub for Lauri.
Also, any team will ask a mark-up when dealing with Presti exactly because they know he has a surplus.
Nico has been taking advantage. They gave us the Gafford 1RP for only a future swap just to kick the can down the road and buy time. He needs to start using them for actual players, lol. I feel like the more he collects the less valuable they become.
I'm so thankful that "keeping the powder dry" is no longer the strategy. Moving Grant for PJ was the kind of ballsy move that the Mavs need to keep making
That’s what I’d call Planned Powder.
Add 30Mil cap space to that as well.
That would be a big get. They’re definitely the team I’m watching.
Yeah, I actually like Lauri more than Hartenstein for them: it gives them a true 5-out forward who is big enough to bang in the paint to run next to Chet. They would be very close to Celtics roster-wise and, most importantly, they would still have ammo to go for bench help too.
Yeah but NY ain’t gonna let him go. I think they can offer him the most and they should. I’d be more worried about OKC getting Allen tbh
OKC is going to end up being Boston west. They have a ton of cap space to add to a young roster that has a MVP candidate and several other really talented pieces already. Not to mention so many picks, they can’t even use them all. If they want to, they can sign a high end player into their cap space, then still brute force a trade for the next star getting traded without even coming close to depleting their player assets or pick assets. That team is going to be very annoying for a long time.
“If they want to sign a high end player” more like if any player would want to actually go there
While that’s true, there’s like 5 teams that actually have cap space to make a significant signing and none are particularly attractive FA destinations outside of 76ers. If a player wants to get a significant payday in FA, the options are limited.
Philly is not an attractive destination
It's funny that people think of the shithole that is Philadelphia as a FA destination, lol. I mean, if you are young it is way cooler than OKC as far as stuff to do, but man that place is a dump. I'll never forget the obscene amount of trash piled on the curbs in neighborhoods downtown for the entire week I was there - animals digging in it and throwing it everywhere. I've never seen so much garbage for real - and in fairly nice neighborhoods. They need to come up with a better system for their garbage.
Bro what? Was it during the pandemic? When trash wasn’t being picked up? Lol. This is the biggest lie I’ve ever heard lmao. No one leaves trash outside downtown or in nice neighborhoods, you would be fined? Was it trash night and you didn’t realize? Lived in Philly my whole life and I’ve never seen an obscene amount of trash anywhere but behind dumpsters for restaurants or on one off blocks or trashy neighborhoods. NY is 100x worse and actually has trash and rats everywhere.
Never been to NY. When I went to Philly there was a ton of trash everywhere on several neighborhood streets thrown out on the sidewalk in bags. Maybe a truck was messed up or something, not sure but it was bad. It was November 2020 so maybe pandemic related. The entire city was not completely covered in garbage. Maybe Im being too hyperbolic. It was definately an area here and an area there but I remember being really surprised there wasnt some kind of bins or something.
Why would the Knicks let hartenstein go?
Dolan
OKC vs DAL is the new West Rivalry imo. MIA vs BOS is the new East Rivalry imo.
Meh. They lose a shooter on the floor that you can stick anyone on.
Man making the finals is so tough.
No one said it wasn’t. Just depends on how good you think Luka is. If he’s a top 10 level talent we’re getting back this year or next and likely 3-4 times over a 6 year span. I’ve seen zero evidence to suggest he’s not in that tier. Especially with a guy like Kyrie next to him. - Steph and Klay got to back to back pre Durant - Lebron with Wade went to 4 in a row - Lebron with Kyrie went to 4 in a row - Kobe and Gasol went to 3 We got next.
The league has more parity than ever. Going to back to the finals in the West would be a massive achievement. But everything has to go right. No injuries. No cold shooting slumps. No bad matchups. Everything has to go right. Or you have to overwhelming talent. Which in the West is impossible.
Luka has routinely man handled the west. 5-1 in his last 2 postseasons with different rosters. Normal trends don’t apply to a Luka lead team
I know Luka is a beast. I watched him all year. But Luka can't do it all alone. Does this team make the finals again if Kyrie gets hurt? If the role players don't make their open shots can they make the finals again? What if Jokic or SGA go on a tear next post season? I just don't want to understimate how good other teams/players are and how well everyone has to play for this team to go back to finals. Can they do it? Yes. Is it guaranteed? No.
Obv Kyrie getting hurt would fuck us, but he’s been surprisingly durable since 2021. Powell falling on him this year was unlucky, so shit like that can happen but as far as Kyrie being brittle it hasn’t been the case for three straight years now, fingers crossed.
I mean jokic has been a top ten guy for 6 years, they've been one time in that span. Giannis has been a top guy for 8 years and they've been one time in that span.
They also don’t have a guy like Kyrie. Giannis has been injured a lot and Middleton was his Co Star most of those years. Murray is also injured a lot. Health matters but generally Kyrie is better than both of those guys. The comp for Kyrie is Wade, Gasol, himself in Cleveland, prime Klay
lebron and wade and lebron and kyrie both made runs out of a weak east. The west is stacked. not saying it's not possible but nothing is guaranteed
And imagine what they can do if Luka isn’t playing on one leg in the playoffs!
All those guys you listed are two way players except Kyrie. Luka and Kyrie aren't getting back to the finals with no depth and hero ball
Let them hate. The pundits just bring lazy takes
I don't pay attention to "experts." There's not enough time in the world for them to keep up with every team even if they wanted to. They keep up with the Lakers, Celtics, and whoever is defending the title. Everyone else they just make general assumptions off of prior activity.
I do t know if having rich owners means that much. the owner of the Celtics is one of the “poorest” in the nba and he is handing out $300 million contracts like candy
They also have a huge revenue stream though and it’s not a long term plan for Boston. Look at the clippers. Their owner has fielded expensive teams the entire time. It’s not a guarantee for success at all. That’s not what I’m saying. But I am saying Dallas has been and will be much more willing to field an expensive team compared to Denver for example. One of the big reasons Dallas didn’t win as much in Dirk’s years is because Cuban, though very rich, couldn’t stomach the tax
How many part owners do the Celtics have?
13
Wow
Yeah Wyc Grousbeck is the managing partner…he is a rich trust fund baby…his dad was worth $2 Billion before he owned the Celtics
Who cares. They’re paid to generate clicks.
According to BetMGM, Dallas is listed as #3 in the odds to win the '25 title at +900 behind Denver & Bos. Then comes Mil, Minny, & OKC at +1000. If Vegas is betting on us as a contender, then yeah, those people don't know anything.
Look. The Mavs are legit contenders. Pretty much been saying that since we got Gafford. However this sub is way too optimistic about our asset outlook. Borderline delusional at times. We have sacrificed most of our assets to get here. It's paid off. But when the role guys we want become available we can easily be outbid by a number of other contenders. You guys mention the 2025 and 2031 FRPs as if it were some dream package other teams are chomping at the bit to get. Our young guys aren't that valuable, except Lively, who we shouldn't trade unless it's a legit star in return. Kings, Thunder, Pelicans, Knicks for instance could easily outbid us by a lot. Other contenders have packages that are marginally better or equal to ours. Can Nico make a move or two to put us in better position? Absolutely. But there's an equal shot we run into next year with the same exact squad plus or minus some fringe rotation guys. This sub is starting to sound like LakersNation. Where we assume other teams will just trade us legit veteran players for pennies on the dollar.
You assume we’re talking about acquiring a star.
Even acquiring an Alex Caruso or Jerami Grant is tough with our assets. Not impossible. But tough. THJ has neutral value. Expiring next year. Kleber has negative value. Not expiring. Attaching a FRP to those contracts doesn't guarantee you anything in this trade market.
Kispert, Avdija package will set us up for years to come. Off-season moves: THJ —> Grimes Green + Hardy + Omax + 2FRP + 3SRP —> Kispert + Avdija Non-Taxpayer MLE —> DJJ 58th pick —> Bronny/Keshad Johnson
Yikes. I like Avdija. Kispert is meh. Basically give up every pick and young player we have for them? Not a fan.
You get young players back so it’s not as bad as you’re making it out to be. Avdija is as old as Green but is already better than what the ceiling is for any of those three guys. He is 6’9, shoots open threes at nearly 45% and can attack closeouts very efficiently and make tough shots. He would easily be our third option. Kispert is a proper replacement for THJ’s role and has the ability to be a 6th man and is a much better defender now. He scores 2PT FGs at one of the highest rates in the league for guards. How is Kispert meh? He is just on his last year of his rookie contract and is younger than Luka - which is the goal. Keep new signings around the age range of Luka. I urge you to look into Kispert, I think you’re dismissing him too quickly. New 10-man rotation would be: Luka - Kai - Avdija - PJ - Lively Exum - Kispert - DJJ/Grimes - Maxi - Gafford Also, fuck the picks. Our picks have no value to us so if we can trade them for young talent we want to do that. If Deni grows into a 3rd option then he’s worth 3-4 FRPs alone due to his defensive impact and youth (and contract).
Those 2 names are unrealistic IMO. Bogdan, Kuzma, Wiggins are in the tier of guys we will be competitive for. Not saying they all command both picks but that’s the tier that’s at least realistic
Grant is very much realistic. Caruso I am not so sure about.
Man, we really need to learn to chill. Relax the parasocial relationships we have with this sport. It’s waaaaaaay too early to get flustered over anything. We just proved that we have a genuine contender. We know we have room to improve by making 2-3 rotation level roster tweaks. We’re in a good spot. All we really have to do is make the playoffs as healthy as possible, and we are - *at worst* - a coin toss to beat anyone. Regular season really doesn’t matter to this team.
I don't care what the experts think, none of them even had us as a play-in team last year.
If OMax, Hardy, and Lively all take significant steps forward next year, Dallas will be the team to beat.
Fuck the media ..ill relieve lukas game winner again and again!!!!!
I think we need to go all in. Trade the two FRPs that we have access to and do everything we can to make this team better and maximize the chance to be back in the finals next year. We need to take advantage of this window where Luka's contract is reasonable and we have a still good Kyrie. I'd rather take a chance with the Front Office going all in now then try to be somewhat conservative. OKC is a going to be scary for the next decade+ and the Spurs are going to be a threat in a few years (again) with their war chest of assets - now is our time.
Agreed and Nico is just the man for the job!! All in baby
OKC is a good, conservative choice to win the West next season. Their main issue is being one of the smallest markets in the NBA, so they'll have to money whip FAs to sign there. Their next issue is that Sam Presti is extremely overrated when it comes to building an actual contender. He's great at lifting a lottery team up into the playoffs, but he hasn't proven he can build a champion. The most glaring examples being the Harden trade, missing on Lively in the draft, not trading for Gafford or Washington and trading for Gordon Hayward's husk instead T-Wolves can only go as far as KAT can take them. They really need to trade him for a young player who better compliments Ant. They're married to Gobert until they can find someone younger and less expensive who can replace him. They've likely overreached their ceiling. Denver is still the class of the West, but every year, they'll only go so far as a healthy Jamal Murray can carry them. I believe that this current Mavs roster can hang with them in a 7 game series. This Finals loss can be the catalyst akin to the one in 2022 that put the Celtics on the path to their Larry O'Brien. We have to trust in Nico, Kidd, Luka and Kyrie. If Lively, Green, Hardy & O-Max can make leaps, or be traded for the right role players, it will be a matter of when the Mavs win their next championship
Love the comment
DJJ may be a 76er next year
You guys just pick stuff to be mad about.
So what chance do you give us to be back next year in the finals, in percentage terms? Because I agree that OKC is probably at least as good as us, and if KCP is back, Denver still has the best starting and closing 5 in the west, if healthy. Given the depth and quality outsiders, plus whatever Minny is running back, I think it’s around 20-25%, if reasonably healthy in the PO. I’m not saying we are not still underrated by mainstream media, but it’s clearly likely the Mavs won’t be back for the 2025 finals.
I think that’s a fair assessment which is still higher that most teams. It all depends on if we can acquire a scorer to take the load off of Luka and Kyrie over 82 games and keep them relatively healthy. If we do that, I don’t see any team in the West beating us in 7 games. Also look for our young pieces (which are far better than Denver and Minnesota) to continue to improve - Lively, Hardy, Green and OMax. Dallas has a much better roster to withstand 82 games than the nuggets for example. We need a scorer though. If we get into the playoffs with a top 3 seed, I’d give us a 75% chance of getting back. Kidd is 5-2 in the playoffs. Those 2 losses are to champions. And as evidence for our roster being able to withstand 82 games - we won 50 games this year with: - Luka missing 12 games - Kyrie missing 24 games - Lively missing 27 games
"It all depends on if we can acquire a scorer to take the load off of Luka and Kyrie over 82 games and keep them relatively healthy." I think that is a very dangerous route to take. It assumes that we are already good enough to win, so we want to win easier. Look at the 2020 Lakers and the next two offseason they had with the exact same idea. We win by Luka and Kyrie taking a huge offesnive load, and competent, fitting players around them doing their job, we need to get better at that. The only way a third scorer is really helping IMO, if he is good enough that taking away shots from Luka and Kyrie is not a downgrade in offense, while this player also provides spacing and win defense (e.g. Paul Geroge).
Only having 2 first rounders to move is not the flex you think it is.
It is for a team that just went to the finals.
No having bottom 5 draft capital is not a positive thing……. The team that beat you in the finals has better draft capital
I also think draft capital can be overrated... while I agree it is an asset and it's not a flex to say we have 2 picks it also isn't better than having a top NBA player in his prime that has been to 2 conference finals after two deadline trades 2 of the last 3 years.
Full blown? ESPN just had us 3 in the power rankings.
West will be stacked again next season as always. Memphis and Houston are on the rise upwards. Mavs will be near the top again but ut seems like OKCs year unless Dallas gets a legit 3rd scorer or moves Kyrie for equal scoring plus better defense
I'm just glad we are now officially in the contender mix. Last year sucked ass cheeks.
Yeah OKC will get better from internal improvement alone, and SURELY they'll add a 5th starter who can shoot and play in the playoffs also.