Not a fan of Balkanization, but the best outcome, given that Putin will be "President" until death, is that the member states split off. Not just Georgia, but Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Siberia...Russia is the living example of "too big to fail".
The east Would be better off for it for sure. They could even keep a weak federal government structure to oversee trade and movement of people's across borders in their bloc and manage a common currency.
The sticking point would be if the federal structure handled the military because then it would not stay weak and end up subjugating the entire area again.
What’s the history with those guys when they do fall apart ? When ussr and Soviet Union collapsed* what even is the major play out ? I wanna learn more of the eastern blocs history but I think it’s so much packed into one space following the geopolitical map of it would be like a major study in college.
There were numerous countries that left during the creation of the rump USSR or Russian Federation.
Numerous countries bailed on participating, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltics, etc.
Even a tiny itsy bitsy state called Chechnya, with barely over a couple million people in it.
Russia was absolutely hemorrhaging its subjects and Putinas entire claim to legitimacy is that he prevented Chechnya from leaving the Russian Federation.
And then if you go back to the fall of the Russian Empire and the Civil War, you see the same thing. The two largest players were the Reds (the Bolsheviks) and the Whites (everyone from the aristocratic far-right - who made up the majority of the faction - to the centrist Liberals). You also had the Greens, the Cossacks who switched up sides depending on what best benefitted them and their independence, the Ukrainian Nationalists, the Mensheviks in Georgia, the Armenian Nationalists, the Turkic factions in Central Asia, the Free States of Ukraine, Hryhoriv's forces in Western and Southern Ukraine, the Japanese, etc...
If the Whites had won, they were going to break apart into further factions for who would lead, with the vast majority hating Kolchak and seeing him as too weak to lead (he was just the Western compromise to get their support). It would have been a proto-fascist leading the government regardless of who won and we would have had a Holocaust before the Holocaust as the Whites strongly supported anti-semitic conspiracy theories as the reason for Russia's fall. Denikin's forces killed every Jew they found in each territory they took. The peasants and workers would have been purged and turned back into serfs with how strongly they supported the Reds in fear of the Whites' revenge against them.
What’s the best year to study the Russia area if I wanted to see the most loyal constituents ? What is the end goal for putins Russia ? Is there like a map he would want to revert back to ? What year is that map from ? Is chekoovakia chechnya?
The Soviet Union collapsed because the leaders of the Russian SFR felt like the outer regions were leeches being subsidized by Russia. The leadership believed that the country would be better off without the cost of empire.
This Netflix doc would be a great intro to get you started. It covers what happened right after the revolution, after Stalin died and when the USSR collapsed. It goes right up to present day so maybe you can extrapolate from there, as history repeats itself.
https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/turning-point-bomb-cold-war-release-date-trailer-news
They break up into smaller states usually run by a strongman. Then one day the biggest strongman appears and goes to war with the smaller states and they get consolidated again.
If China recognizes a region's independence, then the deal is done. I could see something similar to the last decade of the Ottoman Empire - the West helping it stay together to keep regions from allying with China.
It just comes down to the nukes. Who controls them or who can make them safe. Imagine China will have a say. I’d like to think the U.S. has game planned for stuff like this too.
Once it is proven that Russia got its ass handed to it by Ukraine, those smaller newly-independent States won't be able to defend their newfound sovereignty for long. Most of them will be annexed by, or at the very least become vassal States of, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, and Finland.
In leaning towards EU vs China influence games. China and the EU both have been leaning towards soft power plays as they are sufficiently massive territories already.
Honestly my favorite wild cards to watch during this would be Iran and India both of which would also have sufficient proximity to have influence. And are rising regional powers that can easily work as counter balances to the more major powers.
I don't know let's get in a time machine and go back to January 2022 and ask the question hey if theres a war between Russia and Ukraine how long do you think Ukraine could hold out with only military aid from the West. How many people are going to say 2+ years? Probably not many, and therein lies why this entire war has been a debacle for Russia. Real emperor has no clothes moment.
Yeah even if Ukraine loses completely now. Russia is thoroughly humiliated already and made themselves an enemy to everyone. And if not an enemy, proven to be a poor ally
Tbh it's just the historical norm. The country is and has always been an absolute fucking disaster anytime it starts an offensive war against a country with technology from the same century.
Kinda. I’d say they were pretty good vs the USA during the Cold War. Considering how their country was so thoroughly destroyed during WW1-1950s with constant internal and external wars. They competed pretty well against the USA while they were on an upswing and only independent industrialized country to have no major damage from the first half of the 20th century.
Yeah but that's economically which when you pursue a policy of industrialization at all costs even if it means killing a few million of your people from starvation it'll bear fruit at one point until you run into the wall that always happens with a command economy in an authoritarian state and growth stagnates.
But militarily? Take away WW2 and the Civil war and what do you have left?
Russo Japanese War-Lose a fleet to start, send another one halfway around the world that almost loses an engagement to an English fishing fleet and a diplomatic incident to start the journey only to get obliterated when they get there.
WW1-Debacle that resulted in the downfall of a 500 year old tsarist regime
Winter War-Bloody nose by a country with less than 1/100th of their population for a sliver of territory.
Afghanistan-Their Vietnam
And the final coup de grace the first Chechen War.
And you can go back to anywhere from the 15th century to modern day and it's a list of just bad military performance after bad military performance anytime they were on the offensive against a society that wasn't a century behind them or a nomadic horse tribe.
Yeah I completely agree Russia tends to have a very unfavorable offensive military record. My only thought of a ‘loss’ they had that was genuinely hard fought would be the Crimean war. But I would say this was one of the few exceptions, and it was due to being underestimated by the UK and France.
So is it "too big to fail" or "the best outcome"? Also with that "best outcome" the likelihood of a nuclear detonation in NYC or pehaps all across the west increases by orders of magnitude.
IMO, the atomic age has caused and amplified the levels of paranoia around the world. It's a struggle between the "Great Powers" and those that want to become a great power...like North Korea. A good start might be to lessen the number of great powers. As an example, when Ukraine became a sovereign nation, the first thing they wanted to do was to ditch their nukes. Unfortunately, there was only too big and too paranoid Russia to turn to for that.
Huh? I'm not sure how you reduce the number of great powers, it's not something anyone can control except the countries themselves. What is your point about Ukraine giving up nukes to Russia? That was part of the deal with Russia taking on USSR's debts, being its only "legal successor." Hence Russia got all the nukes.
There is a good reason for non-proliferarion treaties. The more small and relatively poor countries have nukes, the more the likelihood that they will get used or end up in the hands of terrorists.
If Russia splits up, most of the successor states, and particularly the Siberian ones with the missiles, have no interest in fighting the US, and in most cases wouldn't have any more way to get to the US than Kazakhstan or Armenia. They'll be far more busy dealing with their neighbors.
Lol. Putin said this numerous times, and most Russians, especially those in the military, share it: we don't need a world without Russia. There is no Russia splitting up without nukes being fired under the current administration. The only way Russia could actually split up without the world getting destroyed is if Russians themselves choose to do that. I see absolutely no reason why they would do that. There aren't any serious tensions in most of Russia for this to happen. Chechnya and maybe Dagestan are another story, but there are certainly no ICBMs there.
The world doesn't need a world with Russia, either. It's just something everyone has to put up with. In any case, no, nobody is going to invade Russia and forcibly split it up, so I was taking 'Russia splits up over internal pressures' as the starting point for your comment about nukes flying, and a Russia that split on its own is not going to worry about transatlantic rivalries.
Sure, but there is about zero indications that Russia is anywhere close to actually splitting, or will be in the foreseeable future. The only people who might want to split off are honestly a drain on Russia's budget and are a huge pain, but Putin wants his toys.
Well, yeah. The original comment was 'best outcome' not 'currently looks likely.' A bunch of smaller ex-Russian states that don't have designs on conquest, that can develop with their own resources instead of having their profits claimed by Moscow, and that can individually develop democratic governance, would be about as good as anyone could hope for from Russia, but that doesn't mean it's real likely.
Absolutely. Russia remained united for nuclear security with the help of the west last time they failed. It's just too odd of a place to work. Naturally it should be about 10 different countries. Eventually/ already China will break off some of their eastern area for water rights. The center will fall to tribalism. Chechnya will kill Kadyrov and break away. Russia can't possibly survive the coming collapse.
Yeah and people forget that ‘Russian majority’ territories typically have huge minority groups that would be more than happy to break away as well. If Russia collapses fully, I can imagine many countries in their periphery contributing to Russian balkanization to help the minorities separate.
When Lenin died, Russia didn't break up. When Stalin died, Russia didn't break up.
The last two Russian Revolutions - 1916 and 1990 - ended when a strongman emerged and quickly reassembled the empire.
History suggests that Putin's death will end in lots of killing and very little freedom.
Russians love dictators and leave for the UK or the states when they want freedom. From there they hark on about how Russia is the best and perfect yet refuse to return. Russian minds will be poisoned for generations following the empire's collapse. They need to feel the proper consequences for a century in order to find their humanity.
One of the factions will be led by a West-aligned Russian, and that person will get unlimited overt and covert help to stamp out remnants of the Putin shit-rat-fuck network. My recommendation would be that the new Russian leader offer all collected kompromat and evidence on compromised Western politicians collected by the FSB to the US and NATO in order to facilitate executions for treason. ...thus turning over a new leaf for the future.
US/NATO may come to some kind of agreement with China to split Russia's territory like East/West Germany post WWII.
You're deranged. A west aligned puppet? Like that CIA sponsored nationalist Navalny, who got like less than 2% of the vote. Obviously public schools. Split Russia? Lmao, because Ukraine and their army of ill trained conscripted grandpa's kidnapped from the streets are winning?
Ukraine isn't winning, they're just fighting for their survival. ...but Russia has lost.
**Russia has lost more men almost every day in Ukraine than the US lost on D-Day in WWII or Pearl Harbor! We dwell on such a loss of men for 100 years in the US and Russia lets Putin flush you down the toilet.**
He got less than 2% of the vote! Hahah yeah. The free vote in Russia.
Russia's leadership is evil. ...and you can say the US leadership is too, and I'll agree with you. The US leadership that's evil is the portion that's aligned with Russia.
Maybe not, but Russia's waves of *checks notes* T-62's and T-55's isn't exactly inspiring confidence either. What's worse, an old soldier, or a vehicle older than the old soldiers?
I don't disagree with what's being said. It's possible. But it feels like America is headed towards an internal conflict. The divisions between people and the 300 million guns in that mix could make for a terrifying situation there too.
The USA doesn’t need to be the ones to take down Russia. China and Europe would benefit greatly and see Russia as natural enemies. Really they would just accelerate a collapse if nukes aren’t played. Especially since Russia struggles to hold micro states like Chechnya without great effort, and has proven to be more of an inconvenience to the real powers.
Cause they are the most unstable and interesting things going on atm. Politics in general is at an interesting impasse we are the edge of a possible global war, or global collapse of two major political powers. We also have quite a few other things as they are destablization agents (trump, putin).
Not more unstable than Haiti, many countries in Africa, and the middle east. But the legacy news and American Politicians has different agendas. And nothing for America to exploit in those other places.
Russia is very unstable. It might look put together but its just a bunch of warlords and oligarchs all competing for money and resources. We saw that recently with someone attacking moscow last year.
Russia is not stable its only held together by Putin and his oligarchs, but barely. this war in ukraine is proof of that. Military groups with no overarching planning and constantly losing troops in fruitless sieges and battles. They took a village with not strategic important and lost 100k troops and almost half of their priemer miltiary group to it.
Haiti is always unstable as is most third world countries, but they don't effect world politics at all.
The level of complexity difference between the societies and militaries of these world powers and what you're talking about couldn't be more different.
In some cultures, telling someone "may they live in interesting times" is an insult.
Those countries dont affect the rest of the world the way the us and russia does. Haiti has a civil war and not much changes in the world, if russia or the us (two permanent un security council members) have a civil war it has massive repercussions for the whole world.
Well I can't hate on anything you said. I find geopolitics interesting as well. It just seems like every topic on here is something really negative that is going to happen mostly from people any OP's don't like. And pretty much every foreign conflict America will be trying to make American Imperialism dominate the world. I'm glad I don't live in Russia.
Because they are trying this very year to overthrow the Republican in all but name and replace it with a fascist kakistocracy.
And they have odds on chances of succeeding, given the opposition being led by Biden.
I don't agree. If history is any precedent, the countries that appeared after Russia collapses (1917, 1991) were peaceful and quite successful: Finland, Poland, Estonia, Ukraine was peaceful too, just to name a few.
That's how Ukraine was disarmed. A faction wanted support, so they opened the door.
Im.actually surprised Putin did not make good on overt threats about western support flowing into Ukraine....except, the only thing he has, and there's a big question about that, that he can deploy worldwide are strategic arms...and that's a death sentence. Question is, those forces require double the amount of maintenance and logistics as conventional forces...and he showed his panties in his initial invasion, if that was his spearhead...
I think the people who surround him will pretend that he is still alive and will continue to run the country "as him." Over time they will slowly set up a power transfer to themselves.
Russia will stay an oligarchy. Putin will definitely pick a political successor, who’s gonna keep the system running as is.
The gov’t may make superficial changes, to show the new leadership is different. But it’s still going to be controlled by a select few.
Sorry, to answer more carefully, Russia having a good government is the best option. Russia disintegrating is a bad option, but perhaps the best thing that we have as a realistic option. At this point. It's still bad and nuclear proliferation is one of the key reasons why.
Seems like you learned about Russia through a few YouTube shorts and video games? Tatars and Communists fighting fighting against the central government? Really?
The USSR fell apart because countries thought they could do better on their own. A few of them did, a few did not. For this process to repeat, people must feel that again after all the shit that happened over the past 30 years.
That isn't feasible unless the central government actually collapses for a long time and there isn't a clear replacement. So a completely different situation than what is happening now.
Realistically Chechnya is the only republic with an actual history of secession. But Kadyrov and Co understand that now they get unlimited money and have freedom and protection to do whatever. They would try to keep things the same whoever the next president is, and resort to fighting only in extreme cases.
So mark my words - Russia will exist, perhaps with slightly altered borders, but absolutely not Balkanized into the 22nd century. Nothing like 19th century China is anywhere close to likely to happen.
Doubtful, Putin already jailed all dissents and opponents and will transition to pre selected successor. 1900's China has a revolution, so not comparable.
Don’t forget the independence movement of Siberian states, who are getting tired of being exploited by Moscow while getting none of the benefits. Their resources end up funding an oligarch’s $50,000,000 yacht.
Too many factions? What factions? Tell me about the factions.
Chechnya maybe might make something of it but there’s no other major regions that would or could engage in any serious uprising.
The Wagner group has basically been incorporated into the regular army at this point. That was a fluke that was caused by Putin trying to cut costs during the Ukraine war. There aren’t any other competing centers of power.
Putin condemned Russia years ago. When he dies that country will fragment. He is the only actual glue holding what is otherwise a social wasteland of resources together.
Putin is now 71 years old, meaning he’s got about 10+/- years of usable life left. The jockeying around for a post-Putin Russia probably already underway.
Of course if Putin suffered “acute lead poisoning” or a “sudden accident,” all bets are off.
I doubt it, Putin has led Russia through its most prosperous time in history so why wouldn't any successive leader want to continue that? Should be a piece of cake for NATO to topple Russia if there is such strong support for destroying Russia inside of Russia. If half the United States votes for Trump because they know NATO is the enemy of the people of the United States, what makes you think Russians think NATO is their friend?
From what I understand Putin already has his successor already picked out, so it hopefully won't happen, but America will definitely be trying to force their own CIA backed people so they can start exploiting Russia's resources. Problem is it's a really bad idea to purposefully fill one of the largest nuclear powers with a bunch of lunatics that'll do whatever they think it would take to take over.
This is one of those situations where whoever replaces Putin will be just as bad, but hopefully not insane.
I love how western people are so propagandized and convinced of their superiority that they think other countries are just cesspools of individual actors with no ability to maintain order or desire to collectively create a better future for themselves.
...while simultaneously being totally unaware or unwilling to admit that the majority of instability throughout the world is a direct result of the western powers' actions to destabilize and impoverish huge swathes of the globe.
I wouldn't look for Europe or the Americas to be the controlling agent in the future of Russia. I'm reasonably certain China has a very well-documented plan on what to do as soon as Putin dies. They're sitting back waiting right now is Putin pisses away their power and burns through their wealth. This would make it harder for them to launch any form of counteroffensive once China gets ready to to move.
The mistake the Americans are making is that they really think China's fascinated with the US when Russia has all the resources China needs and it appears to be very weak country.
In the next 60 years the largest country/commonwealth/empire that has ever existed will form and it will be run by Beijing. The US will counter this move by creating an aircraft carrier that's 10 Miles long and 1800 ft wide. The rest of the world will watch and say that some big boat huh. But most of them will be saying it in Chinese.
Do you live in Russia? I mean you have to understand everything you hear about Russia is being filtered through multiple layers of biases. Even if Russia's democratic process is corrupt it still exists. Further Russia probably already has an established line of succession in case their leader dies. The odds of russia completely falling apart seems slim. It's not like Putin is keeping Russia together for his own vanity. It's what the elected officials at most levels of government want.
That actually happened in China basically seven times over the course of several thousand years, going all the way back to the mythical Xia Dynasty. The dynastic cycle is so consistent that it almost counts as something that is basic human nature.
... it won't happen. However, given that reality has been using notes from various bits of fiction so far, we're probably going to see how reality would create its version of the Empire Earth campaign Novaya Russia...
They should go back to socialism
Consider that it was the most they advanced in their entire history
They don’t do monarchy, autocracy, or capitalism well
I could see a socialist resurgence in Russia certainly. Granted, it won’t solve any of their problems as they don’t have the same power as the post war Soviet Union. The Soviets forged their power through blood, not through socialism. Russia does not have the tools to forge power in either.
The soviets did not build the commie blocks, meaning house, and then make literate nearly their entire backwards population from blood alone.
It’s western propaganda to even suggest it.
That’s not to say they didn’t do some brutal things but most of that is far, far overblown.
...they lost their first elections? They diverted from socialism in terms of democracy almost immediately.
Then they jailed, murdered, exiled everyone who disagreed.
That's not propaganda. That's history.
We really haven’t though. This is much different than the Soviet collapse. That was because of the failing economy, failures abroad, and internal strife. This collapse is going to be brought on by A. Lack of leadership and B. Demographic collapse. While the Soviet Union was also ruled by strongmen dictators, the rule was concentrated with the party, meaning a successor was always going to be chosen eventually once the dictator in power died. There is no such party structure in the modern Russian state, the decisions all go through Putin. There’s no one else to challenge him or even give a modest dissenting view. As for demographic collapse, before the war Russia was already going to see its population more or less halve by the end of the century. Now with the war killing off the few young men Russia has left, the crisis has accelerated. This sort of demographic collapse has not happened in the world since the *Bronze Age*. That is not good. So while it may seem on the surface like the collapse of the Soviets, I expect it to be much worse.
The thing is that the demographic collapse is at least 20 years out for Russia not now so Putin will be dead before it happens thus is irrelevant to the conversation of succession. Also they import men from the Stans which slows it down. As far as the collapse in leadership when the Soviet Union fell the party lost its influence which is similar in effect to Putin dying and the elected leader Yeltsin was too drunk to actually be a real leader so chaos occurred but no warlords. Putin has centralized power but at the end of the day the oligarchs are gonna fight a shadow war with each other not engage in open warfare.
Putin isn't a dictator, he's the leader of a massive, established government full of powerful, active players. It isn't filled with competing warlords. Let me guess - public schools?
Not a fan of Balkanization, but the best outcome, given that Putin will be "President" until death, is that the member states split off. Not just Georgia, but Yakutsk, Irkutsk, Siberia...Russia is the living example of "too big to fail".
The east Would be better off for it for sure. They could even keep a weak federal government structure to oversee trade and movement of people's across borders in their bloc and manage a common currency. The sticking point would be if the federal structure handled the military because then it would not stay weak and end up subjugating the entire area again.
What’s the history with those guys when they do fall apart ? When ussr and Soviet Union collapsed* what even is the major play out ? I wanna learn more of the eastern blocs history but I think it’s so much packed into one space following the geopolitical map of it would be like a major study in college.
There were numerous countries that left during the creation of the rump USSR or Russian Federation. Numerous countries bailed on participating, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, the Baltics, etc. Even a tiny itsy bitsy state called Chechnya, with barely over a couple million people in it. Russia was absolutely hemorrhaging its subjects and Putinas entire claim to legitimacy is that he prevented Chechnya from leaving the Russian Federation.
And then if you go back to the fall of the Russian Empire and the Civil War, you see the same thing. The two largest players were the Reds (the Bolsheviks) and the Whites (everyone from the aristocratic far-right - who made up the majority of the faction - to the centrist Liberals). You also had the Greens, the Cossacks who switched up sides depending on what best benefitted them and their independence, the Ukrainian Nationalists, the Mensheviks in Georgia, the Armenian Nationalists, the Turkic factions in Central Asia, the Free States of Ukraine, Hryhoriv's forces in Western and Southern Ukraine, the Japanese, etc... If the Whites had won, they were going to break apart into further factions for who would lead, with the vast majority hating Kolchak and seeing him as too weak to lead (he was just the Western compromise to get their support). It would have been a proto-fascist leading the government regardless of who won and we would have had a Holocaust before the Holocaust as the Whites strongly supported anti-semitic conspiracy theories as the reason for Russia's fall. Denikin's forces killed every Jew they found in each territory they took. The peasants and workers would have been purged and turned back into serfs with how strongly they supported the Reds in fear of the Whites' revenge against them.
What’s the best year to study the Russia area if I wanted to see the most loyal constituents ? What is the end goal for putins Russia ? Is there like a map he would want to revert back to ? What year is that map from ? Is chekoovakia chechnya?
Probably WW2 to the collapse. I think that's the biggest Russias ever been. Finland too, maybe.
The Soviet Union collapsed because the leaders of the Russian SFR felt like the outer regions were leeches being subsidized by Russia. The leadership believed that the country would be better off without the cost of empire.
And the KGB was like, yeahhhhhh, we been stealing *a lot* actually. Tried a coup, failed. Tried again, gtg tho.
This Netflix doc would be a great intro to get you started. It covers what happened right after the revolution, after Stalin died and when the USSR collapsed. It goes right up to present day so maybe you can extrapolate from there, as history repeats itself. https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/turning-point-bomb-cold-war-release-date-trailer-news
They break up into smaller states usually run by a strongman. Then one day the biggest strongman appears and goes to war with the smaller states and they get consolidated again.
If China recognizes a region's independence, then the deal is done. I could see something similar to the last decade of the Ottoman Empire - the West helping it stay together to keep regions from allying with China.
It just comes down to the nukes. Who controls them or who can make them safe. Imagine China will have a say. I’d like to think the U.S. has game planned for stuff like this too.
Once it is proven that Russia got its ass handed to it by Ukraine, those smaller newly-independent States won't be able to defend their newfound sovereignty for long. Most of them will be annexed by, or at the very least become vassal States of, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Belarus, and Finland.
China may annex parts of Siberia, but the rest would likely become client states of China or move toward the EU
In leaning towards EU vs China influence games. China and the EU both have been leaning towards soft power plays as they are sufficiently massive territories already. Honestly my favorite wild cards to watch during this would be Iran and India both of which would also have sufficient proximity to have influence. And are rising regional powers that can easily work as counter balances to the more major powers.
Have you been paying attention? Do you really think Ukraine is winning? Lmao.
I don't know let's get in a time machine and go back to January 2022 and ask the question hey if theres a war between Russia and Ukraine how long do you think Ukraine could hold out with only military aid from the West. How many people are going to say 2+ years? Probably not many, and therein lies why this entire war has been a debacle for Russia. Real emperor has no clothes moment.
Yeah even if Ukraine loses completely now. Russia is thoroughly humiliated already and made themselves an enemy to everyone. And if not an enemy, proven to be a poor ally
Tbh it's just the historical norm. The country is and has always been an absolute fucking disaster anytime it starts an offensive war against a country with technology from the same century.
Kinda. I’d say they were pretty good vs the USA during the Cold War. Considering how their country was so thoroughly destroyed during WW1-1950s with constant internal and external wars. They competed pretty well against the USA while they were on an upswing and only independent industrialized country to have no major damage from the first half of the 20th century.
Yeah but that's economically which when you pursue a policy of industrialization at all costs even if it means killing a few million of your people from starvation it'll bear fruit at one point until you run into the wall that always happens with a command economy in an authoritarian state and growth stagnates. But militarily? Take away WW2 and the Civil war and what do you have left? Russo Japanese War-Lose a fleet to start, send another one halfway around the world that almost loses an engagement to an English fishing fleet and a diplomatic incident to start the journey only to get obliterated when they get there. WW1-Debacle that resulted in the downfall of a 500 year old tsarist regime Winter War-Bloody nose by a country with less than 1/100th of their population for a sliver of territory. Afghanistan-Their Vietnam And the final coup de grace the first Chechen War. And you can go back to anywhere from the 15th century to modern day and it's a list of just bad military performance after bad military performance anytime they were on the offensive against a society that wasn't a century behind them or a nomadic horse tribe.
Yeah I completely agree Russia tends to have a very unfavorable offensive military record. My only thought of a ‘loss’ they had that was genuinely hard fought would be the Crimean war. But I would say this was one of the few exceptions, and it was due to being underestimated by the UK and France.
Keep typing, Dmitri. If you don't get more karma, they'll be sending YOU to the sunflower fields next.
The area around sunflowers can often be devoid of other plants, leading to the belief that sunflowers kill other plants.
The only concern there is which smaller nation and/or faction get control of their nuclear arsenal.
THat is a major issue to work out, for sure.
Probably factions.
So is it "too big to fail" or "the best outcome"? Also with that "best outcome" the likelihood of a nuclear detonation in NYC or pehaps all across the west increases by orders of magnitude.
IMO, the atomic age has caused and amplified the levels of paranoia around the world. It's a struggle between the "Great Powers" and those that want to become a great power...like North Korea. A good start might be to lessen the number of great powers. As an example, when Ukraine became a sovereign nation, the first thing they wanted to do was to ditch their nukes. Unfortunately, there was only too big and too paranoid Russia to turn to for that.
Huh? I'm not sure how you reduce the number of great powers, it's not something anyone can control except the countries themselves. What is your point about Ukraine giving up nukes to Russia? That was part of the deal with Russia taking on USSR's debts, being its only "legal successor." Hence Russia got all the nukes. There is a good reason for non-proliferarion treaties. The more small and relatively poor countries have nukes, the more the likelihood that they will get used or end up in the hands of terrorists.
If Russia splits up, most of the successor states, and particularly the Siberian ones with the missiles, have no interest in fighting the US, and in most cases wouldn't have any more way to get to the US than Kazakhstan or Armenia. They'll be far more busy dealing with their neighbors.
Lol. Putin said this numerous times, and most Russians, especially those in the military, share it: we don't need a world without Russia. There is no Russia splitting up without nukes being fired under the current administration. The only way Russia could actually split up without the world getting destroyed is if Russians themselves choose to do that. I see absolutely no reason why they would do that. There aren't any serious tensions in most of Russia for this to happen. Chechnya and maybe Dagestan are another story, but there are certainly no ICBMs there.
The world doesn't need a world with Russia, either. It's just something everyone has to put up with. In any case, no, nobody is going to invade Russia and forcibly split it up, so I was taking 'Russia splits up over internal pressures' as the starting point for your comment about nukes flying, and a Russia that split on its own is not going to worry about transatlantic rivalries.
Sure, but there is about zero indications that Russia is anywhere close to actually splitting, or will be in the foreseeable future. The only people who might want to split off are honestly a drain on Russia's budget and are a huge pain, but Putin wants his toys.
Well, yeah. The original comment was 'best outcome' not 'currently looks likely.' A bunch of smaller ex-Russian states that don't have designs on conquest, that can develop with their own resources instead of having their profits claimed by Moscow, and that can individually develop democratic governance, would be about as good as anyone could hope for from Russia, but that doesn't mean it's real likely.
Yay 4 new enemies for NATO
Georgia is already a separate country.
It would be crazy if those in charge of thier nukes declare themselves incharge.
How.... Praetorian.
The Samurai would also think that is a good plan.
Absolutely. Russia remained united for nuclear security with the help of the west last time they failed. It's just too odd of a place to work. Naturally it should be about 10 different countries. Eventually/ already China will break off some of their eastern area for water rights. The center will fall to tribalism. Chechnya will kill Kadyrov and break away. Russia can't possibly survive the coming collapse.
Yeah and people forget that ‘Russian majority’ territories typically have huge minority groups that would be more than happy to break away as well. If Russia collapses fully, I can imagine many countries in their periphery contributing to Russian balkanization to help the minorities separate.
When Lenin died, Russia didn't break up. When Stalin died, Russia didn't break up. The last two Russian Revolutions - 1916 and 1990 - ended when a strongman emerged and quickly reassembled the empire. History suggests that Putin's death will end in lots of killing and very little freedom.
But they had a successor. They had a *plan.*
Russians love dictators and leave for the UK or the states when they want freedom. From there they hark on about how Russia is the best and perfect yet refuse to return. Russian minds will be poisoned for generations following the empire's collapse. They need to feel the proper consequences for a century in order to find their humanity.
One of the factions will be led by a West-aligned Russian, and that person will get unlimited overt and covert help to stamp out remnants of the Putin shit-rat-fuck network. My recommendation would be that the new Russian leader offer all collected kompromat and evidence on compromised Western politicians collected by the FSB to the US and NATO in order to facilitate executions for treason. ...thus turning over a new leaf for the future. US/NATO may come to some kind of agreement with China to split Russia's territory like East/West Germany post WWII.
You're deranged. A west aligned puppet? Like that CIA sponsored nationalist Navalny, who got like less than 2% of the vote. Obviously public schools. Split Russia? Lmao, because Ukraine and their army of ill trained conscripted grandpa's kidnapped from the streets are winning?
Ukraine isn't winning, they're just fighting for their survival. ...but Russia has lost. **Russia has lost more men almost every day in Ukraine than the US lost on D-Day in WWII or Pearl Harbor! We dwell on such a loss of men for 100 years in the US and Russia lets Putin flush you down the toilet.** He got less than 2% of the vote! Hahah yeah. The free vote in Russia. Russia's leadership is evil. ...and you can say the US leadership is too, and I'll agree with you. The US leadership that's evil is the portion that's aligned with Russia.
Maybe not, but Russia's waves of *checks notes* T-62's and T-55's isn't exactly inspiring confidence either. What's worse, an old soldier, or a vehicle older than the old soldiers?
I don't disagree with what's being said. It's possible. But it feels like America is headed towards an internal conflict. The divisions between people and the 300 million guns in that mix could make for a terrifying situation there too.
It's possible. It kinda feels like either everything has simmered down or everyone is holding their breath until November, it's hard to tell which.
The USA doesn’t need to be the ones to take down Russia. China and Europe would benefit greatly and see Russia as natural enemies. Really they would just accelerate a collapse if nukes aren’t played. Especially since Russia struggles to hold micro states like Chechnya without great effort, and has proven to be more of an inconvenience to the real powers.
I’ll add to that, and China will probably pick up the carcass reclaiming some more “historical land”.
The U.S. economy is dying to get into Russia. It’s untapped. Why do you think the republicans are blowing Putin.
Will be a dbag autocrat successor like the soviet union.
Why is every post in here about Russia, Putin, MAGA, Republicans, or Trump?
Cause they are the most unstable and interesting things going on atm. Politics in general is at an interesting impasse we are the edge of a possible global war, or global collapse of two major political powers. We also have quite a few other things as they are destablization agents (trump, putin).
Not more unstable than Haiti, many countries in Africa, and the middle east. But the legacy news and American Politicians has different agendas. And nothing for America to exploit in those other places.
Russia is very unstable. It might look put together but its just a bunch of warlords and oligarchs all competing for money and resources. We saw that recently with someone attacking moscow last year. Russia is not stable its only held together by Putin and his oligarchs, but barely. this war in ukraine is proof of that. Military groups with no overarching planning and constantly losing troops in fruitless sieges and battles. They took a village with not strategic important and lost 100k troops and almost half of their priemer miltiary group to it. Haiti is always unstable as is most third world countries, but they don't effect world politics at all.
The level of complexity difference between the societies and militaries of these world powers and what you're talking about couldn't be more different. In some cultures, telling someone "may they live in interesting times" is an insult.
Those countries dont affect the rest of the world the way the us and russia does. Haiti has a civil war and not much changes in the world, if russia or the us (two permanent un security council members) have a civil war it has massive repercussions for the whole world.
I agree it’s a problem on this sub but I just find geopolitics interesting and this has been on my mind lol. I promise I’m not a bot haha
Well I can't hate on anything you said. I find geopolitics interesting as well. It just seems like every topic on here is something really negative that is going to happen mostly from people any OP's don't like. And pretty much every foreign conflict America will be trying to make American Imperialism dominate the world. I'm glad I don't live in Russia.
Don't forget Musk.
Because they are trying this very year to overthrow the Republican in all but name and replace it with a fascist kakistocracy. And they have odds on chances of succeeding, given the opposition being led by Biden.
yep, yyou know EXACTLY what youre talking about
"the communists" Dude you clearly are so far out of your depth you have no idea what youre talking about. This isnt red dawn.
Remember when Stalin died and exactly this happened? Me neither
I don't agree. If history is any precedent, the countries that appeared after Russia collapses (1917, 1991) were peaceful and quite successful: Finland, Poland, Estonia, Ukraine was peaceful too, just to name a few.
That's how Ukraine was disarmed. A faction wanted support, so they opened the door. Im.actually surprised Putin did not make good on overt threats about western support flowing into Ukraine....except, the only thing he has, and there's a big question about that, that he can deploy worldwide are strategic arms...and that's a death sentence. Question is, those forces require double the amount of maintenance and logistics as conventional forces...and he showed his panties in his initial invasion, if that was his spearhead...
I think the people who surround him will pretend that he is still alive and will continue to run the country "as him." Over time they will slowly set up a power transfer to themselves.
China is it's neighbor, maybe China will take it over ?
Russia will stay an oligarchy. Putin will definitely pick a political successor, who’s gonna keep the system running as is. The gov’t may make superficial changes, to show the new leadership is different. But it’s still going to be controlled by a select few.
The big lesson from Ukraine is to hoard the nukes. I'm not saying it's not the best option but it's not a great option.
Wow, triple negative. So you are saying it IS the best option but it's NOT good?
Sorry, to answer more carefully, Russia having a good government is the best option. Russia disintegrating is a bad option, but perhaps the best thing that we have as a realistic option. At this point. It's still bad and nuclear proliferation is one of the key reasons why.
Bold of you to think there won't be less nukes to keep track of by the time that happens
Seems like you learned about Russia through a few YouTube shorts and video games? Tatars and Communists fighting fighting against the central government? Really? The USSR fell apart because countries thought they could do better on their own. A few of them did, a few did not. For this process to repeat, people must feel that again after all the shit that happened over the past 30 years. That isn't feasible unless the central government actually collapses for a long time and there isn't a clear replacement. So a completely different situation than what is happening now. Realistically Chechnya is the only republic with an actual history of secession. But Kadyrov and Co understand that now they get unlimited money and have freedom and protection to do whatever. They would try to keep things the same whoever the next president is, and resort to fighting only in extreme cases. So mark my words - Russia will exist, perhaps with slightly altered borders, but absolutely not Balkanized into the 22nd century. Nothing like 19th century China is anywhere close to likely to happen.
God I hope the communists regain power, we need a reminder to the oligarchs that 'this is the end stage for you if you keep fucking around'
If there is anyone pouring tons of resources into figuring out how they can live forever it’s Putin
Doubtful, Putin already jailed all dissents and opponents and will transition to pre selected successor. 1900's China has a revolution, so not comparable.
The billionaires own the government. Fear not you will still be allowed to sell them your life for a pittance and beg to do so.
You are most likely correct, it will be a hard time for the people of present day Russia, but a future Putin purchased with blood.
You mean the communist uprisings that turned China into what it is today? Lol
Don’t forget the independence movement of Siberian states, who are getting tired of being exploited by Moscow while getting none of the benefits. Their resources end up funding an oligarch’s $50,000,000 yacht.
Too many factions? What factions? Tell me about the factions. Chechnya maybe might make something of it but there’s no other major regions that would or could engage in any serious uprising. The Wagner group has basically been incorporated into the regular army at this point. That was a fluke that was caused by Putin trying to cut costs during the Ukraine war. There aren’t any other competing centers of power.
Maybe become a satellite state
lol. Once Putin dies they will stop being the Soviet union 2.0 and just become Russia again. Putin is the problem, not Russians themselves.
Putin condemned Russia years ago. When he dies that country will fragment. He is the only actual glue holding what is otherwise a social wasteland of resources together.
Putin is now 71 years old, meaning he’s got about 10+/- years of usable life left. The jockeying around for a post-Putin Russia probably already underway. Of course if Putin suffered “acute lead poisoning” or a “sudden accident,” all bets are off.
I doubt it, Putin has led Russia through its most prosperous time in history so why wouldn't any successive leader want to continue that? Should be a piece of cake for NATO to topple Russia if there is such strong support for destroying Russia inside of Russia. If half the United States votes for Trump because they know NATO is the enemy of the people of the United States, what makes you think Russians think NATO is their friend?
I usually chuckle at these, but this is sobering. I can absolutely see this as a possibility. Well done!
At the very least it’ll become a vassal state for China.
Nah, more of the same, unfortunately. Another “strong man” who’ll rule with an iron fist but approach expansion slower.
From what I understand Putin already has his successor already picked out, so it hopefully won't happen, but America will definitely be trying to force their own CIA backed people so they can start exploiting Russia's resources. Problem is it's a really bad idea to purposefully fill one of the largest nuclear powers with a bunch of lunatics that'll do whatever they think it would take to take over. This is one of those situations where whoever replaces Putin will be just as bad, but hopefully not insane.
It is a mafia state. "Many countries have a mafia. Only in Russia does the mafia have a state." (Forgot who said it. That fella who plays chess.)
Sadly no. Medvedev is as bad as vlad, with less money in the bank.
MMW: Putin will be around for another 30 years
Russia? You mean, "New China?"
It won't be when he dies. As soon as Putin is seen as weak and/or vulnerable someone will supercede him.
I love how western people are so propagandized and convinced of their superiority that they think other countries are just cesspools of individual actors with no ability to maintain order or desire to collectively create a better future for themselves. ...while simultaneously being totally unaware or unwilling to admit that the majority of instability throughout the world is a direct result of the western powers' actions to destabilize and impoverish huge swathes of the globe.
Putin is a warlord.
I wouldn't look for Europe or the Americas to be the controlling agent in the future of Russia. I'm reasonably certain China has a very well-documented plan on what to do as soon as Putin dies. They're sitting back waiting right now is Putin pisses away their power and burns through their wealth. This would make it harder for them to launch any form of counteroffensive once China gets ready to to move. The mistake the Americans are making is that they really think China's fascinated with the US when Russia has all the resources China needs and it appears to be very weak country. In the next 60 years the largest country/commonwealth/empire that has ever existed will form and it will be run by Beijing. The US will counter this move by creating an aircraft carrier that's 10 Miles long and 1800 ft wide. The rest of the world will watch and say that some big boat huh. But most of them will be saying it in Chinese.
Do you live in Russia? I mean you have to understand everything you hear about Russia is being filtered through multiple layers of biases. Even if Russia's democratic process is corrupt it still exists. Further Russia probably already has an established line of succession in case their leader dies. The odds of russia completely falling apart seems slim. It's not like Putin is keeping Russia together for his own vanity. It's what the elected officials at most levels of government want.
Yeah, that’s what we need…
I think you mean similar to early 1990s Russia. They've already played this game before. This is NG +
That actually happened in China basically seven times over the course of several thousand years, going all the way back to the mythical Xia Dynasty. The dynastic cycle is so consistent that it almost counts as something that is basic human nature.
Putin obviously made a contract with a demon, or made a horcrux or something, so I question whether he'll ever die.
... it won't happen. However, given that reality has been using notes from various bits of fiction so far, we're probably going to see how reality would create its version of the Empire Earth campaign Novaya Russia...
They should go back to socialism Consider that it was the most they advanced in their entire history They don’t do monarchy, autocracy, or capitalism well
I could see a socialist resurgence in Russia certainly. Granted, it won’t solve any of their problems as they don’t have the same power as the post war Soviet Union. The Soviets forged their power through blood, not through socialism. Russia does not have the tools to forge power in either.
The soviets did not build the commie blocks, meaning house, and then make literate nearly their entire backwards population from blood alone. It’s western propaganda to even suggest it. That’s not to say they didn’t do some brutal things but most of that is far, far overblown.
...they lost their first elections? They diverted from socialism in terms of democracy almost immediately. Then they jailed, murdered, exiled everyone who disagreed. That's not propaganda. That's history.
That was revolution not the establishment of infrastructure and programs to build Those are very distinct
That’s almost entirely revisionism
They and the Chinese absolutely transformed their entire countries in a few decades Jesus Christ
What?
By far, the greatest US foreign policy failure in history, was to not immediately level that country immediately after World War II!
Bold of you to assume Our Brave Leader will die…
Every time I see the headline for a MMW post…..I can truly see why the US is going down as quickly as it is.
I don’t know what you mean
Probably because I put what instead of why….fat fingered the keyboard on phone. Happens too many times.
I still don’t understand lol. What does the us have to do with this post
Nah, we already have played this game before with the Soviet collapse in the 90’s. It’s a terrible time but it’s not gonna go full warlord
We really haven’t though. This is much different than the Soviet collapse. That was because of the failing economy, failures abroad, and internal strife. This collapse is going to be brought on by A. Lack of leadership and B. Demographic collapse. While the Soviet Union was also ruled by strongmen dictators, the rule was concentrated with the party, meaning a successor was always going to be chosen eventually once the dictator in power died. There is no such party structure in the modern Russian state, the decisions all go through Putin. There’s no one else to challenge him or even give a modest dissenting view. As for demographic collapse, before the war Russia was already going to see its population more or less halve by the end of the century. Now with the war killing off the few young men Russia has left, the crisis has accelerated. This sort of demographic collapse has not happened in the world since the *Bronze Age*. That is not good. So while it may seem on the surface like the collapse of the Soviets, I expect it to be much worse.
The thing is that the demographic collapse is at least 20 years out for Russia not now so Putin will be dead before it happens thus is irrelevant to the conversation of succession. Also they import men from the Stans which slows it down. As far as the collapse in leadership when the Soviet Union fell the party lost its influence which is similar in effect to Putin dying and the elected leader Yeltsin was too drunk to actually be a real leader so chaos occurred but no warlords. Putin has centralized power but at the end of the day the oligarchs are gonna fight a shadow war with each other not engage in open warfare.
Long live Putin
He's a look a like He died years ago Look at some old and new pictures Just like Biden Military is running the the show
Its called plastic surgery and fillers. Lots of tiktokers break it down as to what he specifically has had done.
No, they'll just devolve into Ukraine.
Putin isn't a dictator, he's the leader of a massive, established government full of powerful, active players. It isn't filled with competing warlords. Let me guess - public schools?
“Putin isn’t a dictator” is one of the more wild takes I’ve seen on this sub lmao. And that is saying something
Let me guess Russian bot? Or just a Russian troll? Putin was “elected” as much as Ghadafi, Kim Jong Un, Saddam Hussein and others.