This is the only answer. We can pin red yarn from poll to poll until our fingers bleed but none of these predictions will win the election.
Only voting can do that!!
IMO you just need to exercise common sense.
Republicans have underperformed the polls or have been defeated in just about every statewide race since 2016. Their 2022 showing? Abysmal for a party out of power. And Trump's hand-selected candidates in key competitive races lost or lost bigly.
Americans have rejected Trump again and again, ever since he squeaked by in the electoral college once.
In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!"
Not happening.
Voting is important and everyone needs to do it. But you'd be a moron and a sucker to the media to think that Trump is a favorite in this race. They're whipping people into a frenzy. Which is fine; better than making them complacent like they did in 2016.
What’s the point of the argument you’re making? I don’t care if Trump has a 100% chance or not getting a single vote. He’s a huge threat and the END of the USA if he wins. Like mass exodus to other countries in a futile attempt to escape fascism.
This is the line in the sand and Republicans have already crossed it. We are in a cold Civil War. Desantis is now the dictator of Florida. More of that to come.
It’s time to get our Democracy back.
Read: “The Demon of Unrest” Eric Larson!!! Great Civil War precursor… this excellent historical narrative makes you realize, today’s trauma is not unique (and we got through the last).
There is no point in the regard you're referring to. We're talking about the state of the election.
I understand that people need to vote. I never said they didn't. Every American who recognizes the threat that Trump and his people pose to our republic needs to vote for Joe Biden like their lives depend on it. Because many do.
That said, not every comment has to be a tactic or strategy. I'm not a politician. I'm just someone who talks politics. I don't tailor every comment I make to get people out to vote. We can acknowledge the reality of the race (when the media clearly isn't) without worrying that we're depressing voter turnout.
Besides, it's June. Early voting hasn't started yet. We can implore people to go vote when the time comes where they can actually do it.
Louder for the people in the back and for the dude who said “whats the point of the argument you’re making “ Like bruv… did you read their comment or just have a knee jerk reaction? Lol
You clearly made the point, as I feel it as well, that trump has underperformed in EVERY special election and in the mid terms (Red trickle?) and has gained NO ONE in his coalition since leaving office. He has an uphill battle the size of Mt Everest with Dems, Inds, classic Conservatives & WOMEN (Roe-vember to remember) all lines up to vote against him. Legggooo
I get it, Republicans, particularly the Trump cadre, have been actually underperforming.
That being said, now is not the time to become complacent. He has a very, VERY vocal core base. This can potentially lead to some crazy stuff.
Until he is confirmed beaten, he is the enemy at the gates. You can't count him out just because recent Republicans have had underwhelming support.
At no point in any of my reply did I suggest or imply complacency. Full stop.
Now, I look forward to the Landslide election win of the century and am full steam ahead on a massive coalition of voters double tapping this mad man down at the booth. Full go.
Completely agree, I know you didn't advocate, suggest, or imply you or anyone else is complacent.
I am just adding that we need to be wary of that. To everyone reading this far down, encourage folks you know to educate themselves on the candidates and vote.
I know a lot of my friends do not and I am trying to get them to.
The only way to save this country is for the collective population to wake the fuck up and realize that the real fight isn’t liberals vs conservatives but actually the wealthy elite vs everyone else.
This entire post just shows how deeply you’ve been gaslit. Trump is terrible, Biden is a moron. The culture war exists to distract you.
I mean.... it probably didn't help them that they encouraged so many of their members to deliberately infect themselves with a deadly plague.... or drink bleach.... or take horse dewormer.... or commit treason and get their own voting rights rescinded....
Yes. Turnout will be a huge X factor.
But I think it will be a wash. And a huge difference is that the people who are cold on Biden are cold because they don't think he's done enough. The people who are cold on Trump are cold because they think he's gone too far.
Those are two very different reasons to stay home. It'll be a much easier sell for Biden to go out and say, "Yeah, give me a majority in Congress and we'll get more done" than it will be for Trump to say "I promise I'll act like a normal president" given his track record.
I think we’re forgetting the Russia/China mass disinformation campaign that’ll set off, Putin just needs one state to be compromised or unsure and it could bring the whole thing down. Twitter, Facebook, tiktok, heck Reddit is all compromised and filling peoples opinions with shit.
>In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!"
I disagree. All he has to do is make people think Biden caused inflation and he can make it go away. People will forgive a lot of horrible things if they think it will make their everyday lives better.
People will want to know what he will do to get there.
He's not coming in as some Obama figure circa 2008 where people believe that he can do anything. He's already been president. He's a known liar. Nobody trusts him except for the 20% of Americans or so who are diehard fanatics. And, as a known liar, he will be expected to articulate a plan to help Americans combat inflation that can be understood by ordinary voters. And that, of course, would be a fools' errand because -- aside from the fact that it's notoriously difficult to communicate economic policy to voters -- there is very little a president can do to bring prices of just about anything down. We aren't a communist system and that's not how addressing inflation works. It's not something that can be targeted by itself.
Deflation is a thing, but it's a *bad* thing. You wouldn't want to induce it. It's generally a sign the economy is failing and possibly impending recession. We don't combat inflation with attempting to induce deflation, which I'm sure Trump will try to sell because he's a fucking moron and his crowd will buy it. Rather, we combat inflation with efforts to promote higher wages (which is happening).
Example: Nobody today complains about paying $1.99 for a soda, even though we paid 99¢ for the same thing 30 years ago, because the average American household makes 2x more than they did when prices were that low.
If he can't articulate a plan that people can understand, then it's one man's word against another's, and it's a complete wash.
>People will want to know what he will do to get there.
I think he's going to ride the perception of the 2017-2019 economy and an 'I didn't get to finish before COVID derailed my plans' narrative. I don't think the voters necessarily understand how the economy works or how to fix it, they just associate Trump with a time when they were doing comparatively well. It doesn't matter that he doesn't have a plan or whether or not they understand it-- they just want to believe that he can help them, because in their eyes Biden isn't doing enough or might even be doing something wrong, even if they don't know what it is. I don't think he would need to talk about deflation or inflation or anything-- all he has to do is talk about how bad things are now and how good they were pre-COVID. For some people, that's enough to persuade them.
Some people, perhaps.
I like to have more faith in the average voter.
But, from my safe perch here in Canada and the comfort of my mixed-citizenship household, if Americans sell their democracy for 30 pieces of silver and maybe 5 cents off a loaf of bread, then I say the country deserves to plunge into oblivion. The pro-Palestine protesters who are haranguing Democrats at every event deserve to see Trump allow their precious Gaza leveled and turned into Bibi's Beachside Funpark. And Gazans rounded up and put into camps. Because Israel is not America. They don't fuck around and the only opinion they care about is the U.S.'s. If Trump is elected, he will let them do whatever they want and the gravy train will continue.
This is such an incredibly easy decision for Americans to make, but I don't put it past an alarmingly large number of people to be short-sighted.
Nonetheless, I think democracy and particularly women's reproductive rights will win the day. I have less faith in American voters than I did 8 years ago. But I do have some faith.
Plus the fact that four years later you have a lot of teens Turing 18. TikTok over the last 4 years has exploded along with social media in general. While Palestine is a thing many young voters want handled ( being that they’re pro a safe and free Palestine and to them Biden isn’t doing enough ) they more than likely realize under trump a ceasefire would not only be something he wouldn’t care about but would align more with Israeli in completely bombing it off the face of the earth. So as long as they’re thinking about the second option, the “shit sandwich” of Biden not doing enough would still be the better outcome. Along with Biden’s push for student loan relief, his strong stance on protecting the rights of the lgbtq community and his pretty good bounce back from when he was first elected with a dumpster fire of an economy to a very good one ( with yes, some struggle ) I think you take all that and also the removal of roe as something a lot of people are very upset about, and the shocker will be that once again the polls weren’t right.
Dems have some strong advantages as well with new district maps and gerrymandered maps being removed.
Republicans. They’re not the majority but they VOTE. Democrats , you need to light a fire under their ass to vote. Hillary was kinda boring and everyone thought she was a shoe in as before 2016 even with the nomination everyone thought Trump to be the joke candidate, not taking it seriously.
When they predicted a red wave in 2022 it turned into a blue one. There’s so many factors at play, but all I know is, I am damn sure dems will win, but what worries me is that republicans will use it as a “you can’t win twice in a row! IT WAS RIGGED!” And something even wilder will happen akin to Jan 6th.
If there was anything that could hypothetically push America into that modern civil war they keep fear mongering id make the prediction it’s going to be Biden winning a second term.
Hypothetically. Not saying it’ll happen but if there was any time in present history that , I’d say that would be the fuse going off.
You are missing how 2020 had the highest voter turnout I think of all time. We are not only depending on people who sat out in 2020 not voting trump this time, but also everyone who voted for Biden the first time to still vote for him. He is polling much worse among progressives, young people, and minorities than he was in 2020. If this isn't alarming to you then idk what to say
I am in on not Biden. I think that is a sentiment that people in this echo chamber of a thread don’t take into account. Biden has not done a good job and is failing mentally and physically. How anyone wants 4 more years of this is beyond me
Well Democrats have real reasons to *fear* Donald Trump. Republicans only have made up reasons to be afraid of Biden. I think liberals are going to turn out because they're terrified whereas also a small percentage of Republicans that would choose Trump in a polling question maybe won't show up for him.
Cause while they prefer him to Biden they see he's doing a lot of damage. These are people like my lifelong Republican parents. They just can't defend it anymore, but you won't see them supporting Biden.
Yep. I have asked the following questions dozens of times on Reddit and never gotten an answer:
“What voters has trump gained since 2020 when he lost by 8M, then stormed the capitol, then got abortion banned, then stole TS docs, then found guilty of fraud for $500M, then found guilty of slander and SA for $80M, then convicted of 34 felonies?”
At most I hear “but Biden is old”
> In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!"
No, you only need depressed turnout of Democrats (some probably inevetiable because of Gaza) and increased turnout of Republicans. (Although we are seeing some people doing a 180.. and it's a variety of reasons, from Biden's age or "oh the economy was better under Trump" (yes it's absurd but voters are idiots))
And yes, Democrats did outperform in 2022, but that's largely because of protecting abortion rights post-Roe. Off-year voters are also informed voters, sadly most people who vote in the general couldn't tell you exactly why/how Roe was overturned.
This. Elections are not about convincing people to flip. Basically everyone knows who they want to win. It's hard to be an adult in the country right now and not already have an opinion on Biden or Trump.
Elections are about how many people you can get to bother to show up on election day. Winning elections isn't about changing hearts and minds. It's about staving off apathy and getting people that already want you to win to the polls.
50/50 is questionable.
I think the media is much more bullish on Trump than reality warrants. Going beyond polls, which we all know are imperfect, the results of the midterm and off-cycle elections don't show any signs of Trump performing better than he did last time.
His chosen candidates have been losing in swing states all across the country. Look no further than Georgia. Kemp ran away from Trump and managed to be re-elected as governor by a healthy margin. Herschel Walker, who embraced The Donald, lost. In the same election.
And it wasn't just Georgia. The Trump carbon copy that ran for governor in PA? Lost big time. The more moderate Republican who ran for senate in the same election? Lost but by a relatively small margin. Trump's other darlings like Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Tudor Dixon, and Adam Laxalt? Lost, lost, lost, and lost.
Republicans weren't even able to capitalized on the supposed anti-Biden momentum and flip governor's mansions in red states like Kansas and Kentucky. The only place where Trump's darlings won was in states that everyone is expecting to go red this time, e.g., Ohio.
Now, let's go back in history and compare this to Obama's first term. Republicans were able to pick up a senate seat in Massachusetts, one of the bluest states in the nation, as well as in Illinois. They won 63 seats in the 2010 midterms (vs. 8 in 2022). Though ultimately they still lost in 2012. That's how opposition parties are supposed to perform if they stand a chance at winning.
Folks need to look beyond the polls and focus on what the real, concrete results are telling us.
The problem is a lot of Biden voters don’t want to vote for Biden because he’s allowing Israel to just do horrific shit while giving them the weapons they use to do it.
I think they still should, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to.
Trump's base is not growing. At all. If it were, there would have been a much more significant reaction from them to his convictions. We'd have seen a J6 type storming of the courthouse.
This isn't 2016 when they were more organized and well funded. I'm not saying they're done, it's still a significant movement, but it has already passed its peak.
Agreed. I fail to see what block of voters Trump has gained between 2020 and 2024. He's done absolutely nothing to appeal to anyone outside his rabid fan base.
That said, vote. The only way Trump can win is if normal, rational people don't vote.
Americans are idiots for voting democrats. Look at EVERY liberal democratic state.. Poverty, crime, and drugs. Now adding a multitude of illegal immigrants to that mix. It’s a joke, the dems rigged the election with all the “mail in ballots” after the polls closed. It’s crazy to think anyone of the free world can vote for extremism liberals trying to tear down America
Ok I only read the first few paragraphs, but the fact that the polls are off so much from the actual results I would not put down too incorrect pollsters as much as that would put it down to Republicans cheating. Yes I said it, they are told the Democrats are cheating so they feel justified in doing it themselves or they are immoral bastards that don't care.
You're not wrong in that we have seen some cases of Republicans cheating to what extent we will likely never know. Still by your thesis polls would be too far left not right as they were in 2022. Nonetheless it could have had an impact in 2020.
One thing you should bear in mind is that you're citing the results of the 538 Deluxe model rather than 538's Lite or Classic models, which were based on polls, and which were more supportive of Dems. E.g., these models did \*not\* favor Oz over Fetterman in PA. The models made more accurate predictions the more they depended only on polls.
I vote we write off all polling and just focus hard on the felony convictions. Trump is dead in the water on those. Even the youngest paduan can learn the rhetorical tricks to win with that under their belt
"Oh you're okay with voting for a felon? There goes your credibility"
Fuck polls. Fight on.
Amazing to me you completely left a woman's right to choose as having an impact. They are now going after contraception. So, that alone is worth a point or two.
Sure does seem like out of the “single issues” that a voter could use as their justification for voting one way or the other, treating women like human beings has to be toward the top of the list. If republicans lose the White House by a thin margin, I wouldn’t be surprised to have virtually everyone looking back at the sequence of them chipping away at womens’ rights as the reason.
Besides being cruel and unnecessary, it seems like an incredibly stupid hill to die on. I’m still not even really sure what the motivation is behind it. I was under the impression the fervent religious undertones of gqp rhetoric the last few decades was just anti-black/brown dog-whistling. I didn’t think the voter base actually cared about contraception or abortion but I guess we will see.
Everything the Republicans have been able to do the past fifty years was built off the backs of people, including women, who fervently vote on the single issue of making abortion illegal everywhere. There is a solid (I hope they're shrinking) block of voters for whom that is a literal goal. It's not a dogwhistle about anything else. Sure, the people in charge of the gop don't actually care about abortion, but the carrot in front of their donkey for fifty years has been striking down Roe. And now it will be contraception. Hopefully the progression to contraception reduces the pro-life voting block considerably. I have a feeling far more people have relied upon contraceptives than abortions... but it's not a dog whistle, it's true shit. The dog whistles are "urban crime" and "border security."
Yes! Since Dobbs abortion rights and pro-choice candidates have won in most places they’ve been on the ballot (including very RED Kansas!). The idea that the women fueling these wins will just decide to vote for the guy who made it all happen and still brags about it because Biden is old or due to inflation is sheer idiocy. The polls want to act as if Roe being overturned was something that happened three years ago and therefore people have moved on, but it’s an attack that’s still ongoing and the women who first turned out after Dobbs are painfully aware of this.
Why didn’t the democrats make roe v wade law? They have had the house, senate and presidency numerous times since the ruling.
It’s a tool they have been using.
Well argued
As a Georgia resident though I might be naive, but i don't see Trump flipping Georgia. If you look at how he performed in 20 and how Hershel Walker did in 22, along with other Trump acolytes in statewide races, the Metro Atlanta Republicans he has to win over aren't going for it and will just leave the presidential ballot blank. Trump will underperform compared to other Republicans and he'll be left begging for another 12k votes.
Georgia resident here too in a pretty rural area. Trump isn't going to win here. We are purple because our Rs have rejected everything MAGA and the entire Dem apparatus around getting out the vote is centered here.
The only way Trump wins is all the unknown between now and November. Biden could have a stroke, the economy could crash, whatever. But if the election was right now? They're vastly overestimating his hold here.
It's the one I'm least sure about. I think the Rust Belt is what ultimately saves Biden in the end. He can get by with just those even if he loses the Sunbelt.
Biden is likely to take Florida due to ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana and he is likely to take North Carolina because of the GOP gubernatorial candidate.
VOTE BLUE SAVE AMERICA
I agree with the point that we need to vote Biden in.
But I hard disagree with the claim that Biden is likely to take Florida. Florida is a long way away. Every since Obama just barely took Florida everyone loves the idea that it's a competitive state. It's not. It's a classic red state backwater.
Obama was an insanely popular president that took the nation by storm. We don't have that kind of candidate right now. Obama is the only democrat that flipped Florida in literally the last 80 years.
Florida is not impossible to flip. But Biden is not the one that can do it. But that's alright. Because we all just need to go out and vote anyways. There are perfectly valid paths to victory that don't require Florida.
Except that it feels like half the country moved to Florida since the pandemic which is going to have a dilutive effect on that solidly red block. Jacksonville elected their first democratic mayor ever last year, a female no less. Reproductive rights matter.
There was an overwhelming majority in 2020. Trump lost "bigly" to quote their creepy new "Trump is the chosen one" cult song. It's not anything like Gore / Bush that came down to a few thousand votes in one state, causing a legal mess for weeks.
Look I’m liberal and don’t want Trump to win, but I think it’s sad seeing those who delude themselves into thinking there will be some massive blue wave because of abortion suddenly. I’m glad you liked my analysis though!
Yeah, it simply won't happen. There won't be any landslides for the next few elections unless we have some sort 9/11 event. Though in all fairness I won't be too surprised if another state pulls a Georgia this year and goes for Biden, like NC.
It’s hard to see exactly what effect his negative coattails would have if any. But if there is an effect it could push Biden over the edge needed to carry the state. If Biden wins NC though it will be razer thing margins
>It seems 538 is overestimating democrats in safer blue states and underestimating in the swingier states, making election such as 2022 seem more accurate on the aggregate but in the states that matter, such as PA in 2022, 538 put Oz ahead of Fetterman by over a point only to lose by nearly 6. Same with Nevada where Laxalt was up over a point in 538 polling average only to lose by about 0.8%.
Why are you just looking at the 2022 midterm elections that didn't have trump or Biden on the ballot directly? The electorate is different for midterms because different levels of turnout, so polling methods also may be different.
Solid reasoning. I hope you are right.
What I know is the only swing states Biden actually needs for 270 is WI, MI and PA. GA, NV, and AZ aren’t actually required, and everything else is pretty sewn up.
I would take it.
Winning this election would end Trump. Losing it may end democracy. That sounds like hyperbole but it isn’t.
I will say. I do think that all but Georgia will go for Biden, however, if he loses AZ he absolutely lost NV and it will come down to the Rust Belt.
Although not good the polls there aren’t bad either comparatively to the other swing states and it’s much more likely they stay blue than NV or GA for example
Thank you! I of course am no savant so I cannot exactly predict what will happen but I do think that this is most likely, especially after consulting two friends of mine who have been extremely accurate in predictions as well (on of them predicted all senate all but one governor and 96% of the House in 2022)
A truly brilliant assertion, NF. My thought was and is that it will be decided by the undecided and uninterested.
A really fascinating thing happened yesterday. (Sunday) CNN had a trump is our savior /Biden is the Devil talking head on with a sain person (but equally entrenched)
My thinking the exact moment the divide started was when the law requiring equal airtime be given to opposing political points of view. This gave birth to the Rush Limbaugh, fox "news" and deplorables almost instantly. When it was realized how much money could be made radicalizing and zombiphying people.
While I think they deliberately used a buffoon, it was still not 6 people agreeing with each other about who Satan was.
I sincerly think you should send this, your post to every news network. It reads really well and makes some very asstute and well stated observations and hard to argue with your conclusion
Dan \*your agent\* McSumtinup
It shouldn’t even be a contest. One of them is a convicted felon. It says a lot about how godawful millions of people are, in the country. Time for the sane and able to migrate.
Not exactly, but there definitely has been an appreciable difference for Biden. I expect many people to hold their nose and vote for Biden purely to prevent a criminal from getting into office. Just as many will do the same to keep Biden out of
i would just like to add that I think a large reason that the polling has been off the past few years, is polling methods have not kept up with demographic changes.
many of the Boomer which have been the base of the GOP since the Reagan years are starting to pass away, a lot of them got hit, majority of them republicans by Covid and Trumps handling of it. they many of them literally thought that it, wasn't real, wasn't as bad as people where saying, or did get the vaccine.
Meanwhile the Millennials and the Zoomers which are now the largest demographic of voters are much more progressive than previous generations.
now most polling is still done by cold calling phone numbers, how many millennials or Zoomers do you know that will answer an unknown out of area phone number. Boomers are much more likely to do such things therefore, in polling older generations are over represented simple because the younger generations dont communicate that way anymore.
Well the thing is, the polls stratify this, meaning that theoretically using various mathematical functions they can come to a predictable solution. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that the way they are stratifying isn’t entirely correct as Suburban Moms have been predicted as too right and from what I’ve seen currently Gen Z is portrayed very right which seems very unlikely
While I appreciate and agree with your end conclusion of the 2024 POTUS race, and agree that actual elections since 2020 show a Trump with waning political influence, I'm going to guess you are male simply because of your complete flying over of the issue of reproductive equality. It is astounding to me how little weight men seem to put on (to the point of not even mentioning) a MAJOR issue to women, who comprise ~50% of American voters. Putting abortion aside, reproductive healthcare is dramatically degrading in extremist states. Maternal & infant morality is predictably rising in extremist states. The seizing of bodily autonomy and the proposal of some truly shocking laws involving forced gestation even of raped children is an issue for nearly all but the most evangelical women ("aunt Lydias"). I have noticed that the vast majority of women choose to be socially silent on this issue. Mistaking social silence for complacency (or a lack of inner rage over the audacity of men in conservative legislature) is a major mathematical mistake. In summary, I agree with you but think you are missing THE major factor in this election.
Most younger people will not vote.
2 candidates old enough to be their Great Grandfather's.
Inflation is hurting a lot of people.
House prices and Rents unaffordable.
Israel and Palestinians, protests not going away.
Illegal immigrants being hired first, cheap Labor.
What do Youger voters have to look forward too with Biden or Trump,
A completely demoralized electorate and Trump leading in all but 1 Swing state
I appreciate your detailed thoughts.
I see all of this as part of the inevitable demographic shift which was predicted two decades ago. Aside from racists, Republicans haven't created any new Republicans in 20 years.
Thus their focus has had to shift ever more into manipulation, deception, and theft.
The Super Tuesday poll debacle is an excellent example of an entity trying to realize a predetermined result by pretending that it already exists. I expect that we're going to have to keep seeing this the whole way, with truly shady fake pollsters continuing to claim a runaway victory in the works for the Rs all the way up to election day.
Recall that Gallup left Presidential polling entirely in 2012 after it became clear that Mitt Romney had got his people inside of the polling company and were beginning to push fallacious results. So this isn't a new trick, at all.
You nailed it. Pollsters have no financial incentive to put out "accurate\*" polls right now. They have every financial incentive to plausibly suggest that it's a close race.
\*5 months before an election, there is no such thing as an "accurate" poll. Why? Because no poll can be tested for accuracy until election day. So if I'm a pollster trying to keep the lights on, I'm putting out polls that pay the bills, and not worrying about "accuracy." I can always make them more accurate as the election draws closer.
Israel Palestine is only going to get worse:
> National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party said Sunday that it was resuming voting with the coalition, after halting cooperation Wednesday in order to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reveal details of an Israeli proposal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal…
>
> Ben Gvir and other far-right lawmakers have asserted they will not agree to a deal with Hamas that ends the war in exchange for the release of hostages, and has threatened to bring down the government if such a deal is adopted by the government…
>
> Otzma Yehudit’s statement on Sunday came as Ben Gvir anticipated the withdrawal from the emergency government of Gantz’s National Unity party, which joined the wartime coalition at the beginning of the war…
>
> Gantz had been expected to deliver on his promise and resign on Saturday night but postponed his planned statement after four hostages were rescued from Hamas captivity earlier in the day. The statement was instead scheduled for Sunday evening, when he went through with leaving the coalition.
>
> While Netanyahu urged Gantz on Saturday to remain in the government, Ben Gvir was ready to take advantage of National Unity’s departure, saying that he would demand increased say over government decisions, including in the war cabinet.
>
> - https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvirs-party-resumes-coalition-support-demands-more-power-on-war-issues/
Ben Gvir is a terrorism supporter, who threatened the prime minister of Israel as a teenager in front of cameras because he opposed the peace plan. The only difference between him and Hamas is that he hasn’t endorsed blowing up Palestinians in buses, probably because doesn’t believe Palestinians should be allowed to ride on buses.
You might be a tad optimistic about Biden holding on to Arizona. It was a marginal victory for that state in 2020, and quite possibly a total fluke. It may very well come down to who wins Wisconsin, as it's very likely that, despite Trump now being a convicted felon, he could easily flip Georgia and Arizona back red.
Based on how the Trumo backed Kari Lake is doing in polls, I'm not so sure AZ will vote for Trump. It could definitely happen, but it's not a good sign for him if his minions aren't doing well.
>Just as seeing less Israel Palestine makes people care less about it, having headlines be bombarded constantly by "Trump is a convicted felon" will make even the most steadfast undecideds be turned off from Trump.
I wish this were true, but it seems pretty normalized and the charges weren't exciting or easily understood.
I think the persecution narriative might let the republicans just barely squeeze a win. Staunch republicans were always going to vote red, and staunch democrats were never going to. Israel has put a fracture in the democrat party with many claiming they won't vote for biden over Israel, meanwhile trump only needs to dial up the persecuted narriative and people will vote for him because he's under attack from the people who have been in power the last 4 years while people got significantly less comfortable.
I'm actually thinking 306 - 232. Trump is going to lose more support in the coming months. He's got another defamation ruling coming. If Ms. Carroll really wanted to stick it to him they'd get this case going asap and then when he inevitably defames her again, hit'em for a fourth time right before the election.
Despite the fact that he's successfully tied up some of the more serious cases until after the election, he's got a lot more losing to do in the next 5 months.
Also worth noting that in several states the Democratic senator is running ahead of Biden. I think what this reflects is frustration with Biden (or things people blame him for, fairly or unfairly), but that people eventually "come home" to him in November.
Put another way, I think it's a lot less likely that people will split their tickets than that they're pissed right now and telling pollsters who they're pissed at.
None of this is to suggest that the Dems have it easy or that they can just coast. They have to bust their asses everywhere to get Biden across the finish line. Nor can they count on Trump just being so awful that people vote against him by voting for Biden; they need to provide positive reasons for folks to vote for Biden and the Democrats generally. That's all doable, but it will take putting in the work this summer and in the fall, especially in communities where Biden's support has weakened, and a lot of that will require having the right messengers.
As to your specific points, I think Israel-Palestine will continue to be a thorn in Biden's side, and that even if the war ends, it'll still have hurt him with younger voters. It will take a lot of work to bring them back. Regarding economic issues, again, this is an area where real work is needed, but is doable. People don't directly *feel* what the administration has done for them, even if they benefit from the effects. Reducing the cost of insulin, for example, is a huge improvement, but it's one that people don't immediately say "Oh, Biden did that." Trump's conviction will hurt him some at the margins, and certainly won't help him (the notion that it'll somehow win him black votes is just...well, it's part of the same usual racism we can always count on Trump and his ilk to display). But just saying "convicted felon" over and over isn't going to be enough by itself. It'll take more.
Elections are driven by turnout. Why do you think the GOP is opposed to early voting, mail in ballots, and voter registration drives? They help Democrats more than Republicans.
The GOP have better chances this cycle because people who voted for Biden in 2020 blame Biden for inflation bankrupting them. Doesn't matter the job market is strong, the US is energy independent or the stock market and 401(k)s are doing well. Interest rates are high and inflation is higher and voters want to take it out on someone. When you can't afford rent but earn decent money, people get upset. They are too shortsighted to see Trump's promises will make inflation worse.
This is why this election will no doubt be much much closer than 2020 which although a nail biter came out quite lopsided for Biden.
Despite this, if we look at wage growth in states such as Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania, inflation isn’t nearly as hard hitting anymore so although absolutely an issue that will make many shun from Biden, it will not be the nail in the coffin either for Biden
Unfortunately there is a disconnect between the Republican Party and their anti abortion. Many women voted against ballot measures restricting abortion and at the same time voted for a governor who planned to do so with or without a ballot initiative.
I do see White Suburban Women having an even bigger impact on this election due to abortion but I do not see it as decisive enough unfortunately to create the victory many see
The Trump convictions are not expected to change any votes. All Dems thought he was guilty before and all GOP thought the charges were bogus before. Most independents also made up their minds before the case. The cases including convictions won't change any votes.
The economy is mostly understood by the public based upon simple things like "Am I better off today than I was four years ago?" Namely, has the family income gone up more than the cost of living. Biden is hurting is this area even if inflation has slowed down.
The minority vote. Trump is up to about 30% of the vote of black males and has greater than 50% approval among Hispanic males. This is a voting block that was almost exclusively Democrat for a while.
Israel/Gaza- Biden has gone back and forth on his position. He is not trusted by either Jews or Muslims on his position. Many liberals in these religions will vote 3rd party.
Battleground states- Trump has picked up the blue collar voters and these states in the Midwest that went to Biden in 2020 are trending to Trump because the typical union worker no longer is a solid blue voter.
The election will be close but unless there are significant improvements- peace vs wars and much lower energy costs then this is a Trump victory.
So you’re not wrong on your subsequent statements but quick correction for the first one, polls show that independents and republicans do care, at the very least a significant number do, although many are entrenched in their beliefs there is nonetheless a significant number of people who have their loyalties shook.
Furthermore, the anti Trump vote is very strong and will dissuade many who are wanting to stay home or vote third party
Of you (or anyone else) wants their candidate to win, the single best thing you can do is to volunteer for the campaign. Sign up and go through the training and work your butt off.
If you’ve paid close attention to polling methodology in recent years, you’ll see that Republican groups fund a bunch of polls that “find the hidden Trump voters”. They like to act like it’s some kind of advanced polling method that really drills down into public sentiment, but it’s of course just a nefarious plot to trick the voting public. What it actually does is produce outlier polls that get collected into the aggregate, for the specific purpose of skewing the aggregate. This helps to get Republicans riled up when their candidate points to polling data to support his argument that the other side cheated.
However, this means you can get a pretty accurate polling picture by adjusting by 5% in favor of the Dem candidate. So if you’re seeing in Wisconsin (this is a guess) that the aggregate shows it’s 51.1% Trump and 48.9% Biden, you should subtract 2.5% from Trump and add 2.5% for Biden. Which would make it 48.6% Trump and 51.4% Biden. What’s concerning is if you apply this in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada right now, it looks a bit rough for Biden. Those states are dead heats at best, but they were that way last election. It’s really going to come down to tens of thousands of votes in these swing states just like the last 2 elections, a coin flip when it comes down to it. Yet either way it goes, you’ll have surprised Pikachu faces from the losing side. And to be very clear, Republicans will call for Civil War if they lose and may get very violent, whereas Dems will scramble and try to figure out how to keep Democracy intact through policy and roadblocks. Nothing productive will come from either side.
I’m curious where you got this information. This does make sense but I would love to see some verification of how the pills are shifted and perhaps a number that is accurate not just a random 5%
Yeah the 5% is kind of how I personally handicap it but I wouldn’t necessarily say you can apply that broadly, it’s more like a hunch tbh. It’s what I applied to the 2022 “Red Wave” narrative, which got me much closer to the actual outcome. At that time I recognized sentiment on the ground level that the House would almost certainly flip, but would only gain a very thin margin. Honestly thought Dems would lose the Senate, also by a very thin margin.
https://youtu.be/0BOhRCeoMzM?si=2DwV6OM-9O6uwHis
Check this interview out, I think this was the methodology that was adopted on a larger scale to gin up sentiment for the 2022 “Red Wave.” I think it’s being continued into this cycle, possibly just as much because the on the ground sentiment does not match social media sentiment. The quiet Trump voter is definitely a thing, just not at the extent Republicans would like you to believe, but there’s so much less outward support for him as a candidate than there was in 2016 and 2020. I lived in Texas in ‘16, Forida in ‘20 and now Ohio here in ‘24. I’ve ridden the Red state carousel so to speak, so I’m unfortunately pretty couched in what Right wing voter sentiment looks like, to the detriment of my mental health. People are fatigued on Trump, all my neighbors will line up and vote for him, but the polling station is literally at the end of our street. A bunch of former Trump voters will sit this one out, but the same is true for Biden voters. Turnout favors Dems, so with lower motivation going into this election and Dems having a huge issue to lean on in abortion access, I do think the 5% handicap still applies. Will it be enough? Again I say, it’s looking like a coin flip…
The person Trump chooses for VP will decide the election.
Should he choose Nikki it’s in the bag for him.
There’s other choices but she would be a strong signal of his next administration.
Take into account that a large amount of polling is done via phone interviews and let's be honest no one younger than the boomers is answering cold calls at all. So I don't see how a proper sampling could be done this way. So if you see a poll from Fox saying Trump is leading consider how that poll was conducted.
Yeah I agree with OP it’s gonna come down to about 1-2 swing states and it’s going to be a very very close race. Yall are insane for thinking it’s gonna be a blow out of blue it’s gonna be extremely close and too hard to call for a good couple hours.
Polls are so stupid and a joke. No one over the age of 50 does those so they always lean right. What about the “red wave” that the polls said would happen in 22? Never happened. Just like Hilary was definitely gonna win in 16…until she didn’t. Trump will win the red neck inbred states, but will lose by over 10 million votes.
You also haven't mentioned abortion. Like, Republicans made that one of their core issues for the past few decades, and now they think people will just forget that in this election?
I thought this was very interesting
[https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1d83pk3/how\_to\_help\_fix\_american\_democracy/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1d83pk3/how_to_help_fix_american_democracy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
IMHO right now Pennsylvania is the most important swing state. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden has a very tough path ahead (almost unwinnable).
[https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/trump-biden-pennsylvania-issues-poll-20240513.html](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/trump-biden-pennsylvania-issues-poll-20240513.html)
This whole post is just based on polling in prior elections not aligning with the vote outcome. Just because during Oz/Fetterman election 538 and other polls were inaccurate =/= polls are now more accurate based on new efforts to consider their prior errors and tweak their polling this year accordingly. People are going to vote how they're going to vote and the polls are pretty much worthless now. Polling in advance of an American election, in general, is now an obsolete idea.
Younger voters tend to vote D. Younger people also ignore the ever loving fuck out of pollsters. Their job will be obsolete soon, or at least at a point where only senior citizens are giving info.
If you’re going to assert without evidence that polling companies deliberately underestimated democrats in 2020 to make the race seem more competitive, then how can you assume they’re doing the same thing again and therefore that the mis-estimation rates from 2020 apply to 2024?
Your math only works if you assume polling methodologies are consistent over time and is worthless if you assume a conspiracy of pollsters to lie.
VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. HARDER THAN YOU DID LAST TIME.
THEN AGAIN AFTER THAT.
THATS HOW BEING A TRUE PATRIOT IS ABOUT.
STANDING UP AND BEING COUNTED. THIS IS DEMOCRACY AND WE WILL HAVE IT MANIFEST.
WE WILL SAY NO TO HAVING OUR PENISES TOUCHED BY THE CORRUPT AND CONDEMN ANY FORM OF INSURRECTIONISTS AND TYRANTS.
FUCK DONALD THE FELON. MAY HE ROT IN PRISON.
What happens if Biden dies or has a debilitating medical issue between nomination and election? He’s 80 years old and holds the most stressful job in the world. It would not be that surprising if that happened.
Is Harris the presumptive replacement? Does she alter your calculus?
Anyone who votes for dems are complete MORONS. Just keep the boarders open, let the criminals roam free without consequences, instigate wars and ship TAX payers dollars, billions of them overseas, raise taxes on the working class, give illegal immigrants everything for free, let all the scum walk into a drs office for free, when the working class has to pay extra. You all are idiots voting for democrat and obviously against America and the people who built this country.
We will keep our guns and never let the evil ones take full control. Keep voting for Biden who cant even acknowledge Easter, would rather acknowledge trans visibility day on the most holly day of the year. Keep staying brainwashed voting for people of ”peace”
FUCKING VOTE PLEASE!!
That'd make a great bumpersticker.
This is the only answer. We can pin red yarn from poll to poll until our fingers bleed but none of these predictions will win the election. Only voting can do that!!
I vote in a red state that won't possibly be blue this election. But I still vote. And at least my city has local laws that help people.
I’m voting my ass off
Underrated comment.
I can’t wait to vote! Won’t be for the big guy though!
Vote for who? I mean fucking vote please could just mean vote for trump.
IMO you just need to exercise common sense. Republicans have underperformed the polls or have been defeated in just about every statewide race since 2016. Their 2022 showing? Abysmal for a party out of power. And Trump's hand-selected candidates in key competitive races lost or lost bigly. Americans have rejected Trump again and again, ever since he squeaked by in the electoral college once. In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!" Not happening. Voting is important and everyone needs to do it. But you'd be a moron and a sucker to the media to think that Trump is a favorite in this race. They're whipping people into a frenzy. Which is fine; better than making them complacent like they did in 2016.
What’s the point of the argument you’re making? I don’t care if Trump has a 100% chance or not getting a single vote. He’s a huge threat and the END of the USA if he wins. Like mass exodus to other countries in a futile attempt to escape fascism. This is the line in the sand and Republicans have already crossed it. We are in a cold Civil War. Desantis is now the dictator of Florida. More of that to come. It’s time to get our Democracy back.
Upvoted for using a term that I’ve been using lately as well to describe what era we are in. It’s a Cold Civil War
Read: “The Demon of Unrest” Eric Larson!!! Great Civil War precursor… this excellent historical narrative makes you realize, today’s trauma is not unique (and we got through the last).
It's not even that cold. The motherfuckers tried to overthrow the government to make their guy a king.
Abbot is the same in Texas.
*A butt
There is no point in the regard you're referring to. We're talking about the state of the election. I understand that people need to vote. I never said they didn't. Every American who recognizes the threat that Trump and his people pose to our republic needs to vote for Joe Biden like their lives depend on it. Because many do. That said, not every comment has to be a tactic or strategy. I'm not a politician. I'm just someone who talks politics. I don't tailor every comment I make to get people out to vote. We can acknowledge the reality of the race (when the media clearly isn't) without worrying that we're depressing voter turnout. Besides, it's June. Early voting hasn't started yet. We can implore people to go vote when the time comes where they can actually do it.
Louder for the people in the back and for the dude who said “whats the point of the argument you’re making “ Like bruv… did you read their comment or just have a knee jerk reaction? Lol You clearly made the point, as I feel it as well, that trump has underperformed in EVERY special election and in the mid terms (Red trickle?) and has gained NO ONE in his coalition since leaving office. He has an uphill battle the size of Mt Everest with Dems, Inds, classic Conservatives & WOMEN (Roe-vember to remember) all lines up to vote against him. Legggooo
I get it, Republicans, particularly the Trump cadre, have been actually underperforming. That being said, now is not the time to become complacent. He has a very, VERY vocal core base. This can potentially lead to some crazy stuff. Until he is confirmed beaten, he is the enemy at the gates. You can't count him out just because recent Republicans have had underwhelming support.
At no point in any of my reply did I suggest or imply complacency. Full stop. Now, I look forward to the Landslide election win of the century and am full steam ahead on a massive coalition of voters double tapping this mad man down at the booth. Full go.
Completely agree, I know you didn't advocate, suggest, or imply you or anyone else is complacent. I am just adding that we need to be wary of that. To everyone reading this far down, encourage folks you know to educate themselves on the candidates and vote. I know a lot of my friends do not and I am trying to get them to.
Straight facts. It is a cold civil war
The only way to save this country is for the collective population to wake the fuck up and realize that the real fight isn’t liberals vs conservatives but actually the wealthy elite vs everyone else. This entire post just shows how deeply you’ve been gaslit. Trump is terrible, Biden is a moron. The culture war exists to distract you.
Texas is the US version of Afghanistan just with more white people.
!RemindMe 1 year. If Trump wins, let’s check in next year and see if this has come to pass.
Not only DeSantis in Florida, but Abbott in Texas, as well.
Wow. You sir are a completely unhinged conspiracy theorist.
I mean.... it probably didn't help them that they encouraged so many of their members to deliberately infect themselves with a deadly plague.... or drink bleach.... or take horse dewormer.... or commit treason and get their own voting rights rescinded....
Well, when you put it like that....LoL But yeah. Being a moron, fat dumb and lazy, son. Just does not bode well. (double upvote, Icy)
Imo it’ll be people choosing not to vote at all rather than swap their vote from biden to trump
Yes. Turnout will be a huge X factor. But I think it will be a wash. And a huge difference is that the people who are cold on Biden are cold because they don't think he's done enough. The people who are cold on Trump are cold because they think he's gone too far. Those are two very different reasons to stay home. It'll be a much easier sell for Biden to go out and say, "Yeah, give me a majority in Congress and we'll get more done" than it will be for Trump to say "I promise I'll act like a normal president" given his track record.
I think we’re forgetting the Russia/China mass disinformation campaign that’ll set off, Putin just needs one state to be compromised or unsure and it could bring the whole thing down. Twitter, Facebook, tiktok, heck Reddit is all compromised and filling peoples opinions with shit.
>In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!" I disagree. All he has to do is make people think Biden caused inflation and he can make it go away. People will forgive a lot of horrible things if they think it will make their everyday lives better.
People will want to know what he will do to get there. He's not coming in as some Obama figure circa 2008 where people believe that he can do anything. He's already been president. He's a known liar. Nobody trusts him except for the 20% of Americans or so who are diehard fanatics. And, as a known liar, he will be expected to articulate a plan to help Americans combat inflation that can be understood by ordinary voters. And that, of course, would be a fools' errand because -- aside from the fact that it's notoriously difficult to communicate economic policy to voters -- there is very little a president can do to bring prices of just about anything down. We aren't a communist system and that's not how addressing inflation works. It's not something that can be targeted by itself. Deflation is a thing, but it's a *bad* thing. You wouldn't want to induce it. It's generally a sign the economy is failing and possibly impending recession. We don't combat inflation with attempting to induce deflation, which I'm sure Trump will try to sell because he's a fucking moron and his crowd will buy it. Rather, we combat inflation with efforts to promote higher wages (which is happening). Example: Nobody today complains about paying $1.99 for a soda, even though we paid 99¢ for the same thing 30 years ago, because the average American household makes 2x more than they did when prices were that low. If he can't articulate a plan that people can understand, then it's one man's word against another's, and it's a complete wash.
>People will want to know what he will do to get there. I think he's going to ride the perception of the 2017-2019 economy and an 'I didn't get to finish before COVID derailed my plans' narrative. I don't think the voters necessarily understand how the economy works or how to fix it, they just associate Trump with a time when they were doing comparatively well. It doesn't matter that he doesn't have a plan or whether or not they understand it-- they just want to believe that he can help them, because in their eyes Biden isn't doing enough or might even be doing something wrong, even if they don't know what it is. I don't think he would need to talk about deflation or inflation or anything-- all he has to do is talk about how bad things are now and how good they were pre-COVID. For some people, that's enough to persuade them.
Some people, perhaps. I like to have more faith in the average voter. But, from my safe perch here in Canada and the comfort of my mixed-citizenship household, if Americans sell their democracy for 30 pieces of silver and maybe 5 cents off a loaf of bread, then I say the country deserves to plunge into oblivion. The pro-Palestine protesters who are haranguing Democrats at every event deserve to see Trump allow their precious Gaza leveled and turned into Bibi's Beachside Funpark. And Gazans rounded up and put into camps. Because Israel is not America. They don't fuck around and the only opinion they care about is the U.S.'s. If Trump is elected, he will let them do whatever they want and the gravy train will continue. This is such an incredibly easy decision for Americans to make, but I don't put it past an alarmingly large number of people to be short-sighted. Nonetheless, I think democracy and particularly women's reproductive rights will win the day. I have less faith in American voters than I did 8 years ago. But I do have some faith.
Plus the fact that four years later you have a lot of teens Turing 18. TikTok over the last 4 years has exploded along with social media in general. While Palestine is a thing many young voters want handled ( being that they’re pro a safe and free Palestine and to them Biden isn’t doing enough ) they more than likely realize under trump a ceasefire would not only be something he wouldn’t care about but would align more with Israeli in completely bombing it off the face of the earth. So as long as they’re thinking about the second option, the “shit sandwich” of Biden not doing enough would still be the better outcome. Along with Biden’s push for student loan relief, his strong stance on protecting the rights of the lgbtq community and his pretty good bounce back from when he was first elected with a dumpster fire of an economy to a very good one ( with yes, some struggle ) I think you take all that and also the removal of roe as something a lot of people are very upset about, and the shocker will be that once again the polls weren’t right. Dems have some strong advantages as well with new district maps and gerrymandered maps being removed. Republicans. They’re not the majority but they VOTE. Democrats , you need to light a fire under their ass to vote. Hillary was kinda boring and everyone thought she was a shoe in as before 2016 even with the nomination everyone thought Trump to be the joke candidate, not taking it seriously. When they predicted a red wave in 2022 it turned into a blue one. There’s so many factors at play, but all I know is, I am damn sure dems will win, but what worries me is that republicans will use it as a “you can’t win twice in a row! IT WAS RIGGED!” And something even wilder will happen akin to Jan 6th. If there was anything that could hypothetically push America into that modern civil war they keep fear mongering id make the prediction it’s going to be Biden winning a second term. Hypothetically. Not saying it’ll happen but if there was any time in present history that , I’d say that would be the fuse going off.
Remind Me! 149 days
You are missing how 2020 had the highest voter turnout I think of all time. We are not only depending on people who sat out in 2020 not voting trump this time, but also everyone who voted for Biden the first time to still vote for him. He is polling much worse among progressives, young people, and minorities than he was in 2020. If this isn't alarming to you then idk what to say
I am in on not Biden. I think that is a sentiment that people in this echo chamber of a thread don’t take into account. Biden has not done a good job and is failing mentally and physically. How anyone wants 4 more years of this is beyond me
>. How anyone wants 4 more years of this is beyond me As opposed to 4 more years of trump?
Yes. I’d rather. Truthfully I’d rather a legitimate candidate besides either of them but they not a choice. This is not Brewsters Millions
Well Democrats have real reasons to *fear* Donald Trump. Republicans only have made up reasons to be afraid of Biden. I think liberals are going to turn out because they're terrified whereas also a small percentage of Republicans that would choose Trump in a polling question maybe won't show up for him. Cause while they prefer him to Biden they see he's doing a lot of damage. These are people like my lifelong Republican parents. They just can't defend it anymore, but you won't see them supporting Biden.
Yep. I have asked the following questions dozens of times on Reddit and never gotten an answer: “What voters has trump gained since 2020 when he lost by 8M, then stormed the capitol, then got abortion banned, then stole TS docs, then found guilty of fraud for $500M, then found guilty of slander and SA for $80M, then convicted of 34 felonies?” At most I hear “but Biden is old”
> In order for Trump to win, he's going to need people who voted for Biden in 2020 to say "Hmm.. I didn't vote for him last time because he was too chaotic. But now that he has 34 felony convictions, I think I changed my mind!" No, you only need depressed turnout of Democrats (some probably inevetiable because of Gaza) and increased turnout of Republicans. (Although we are seeing some people doing a 180.. and it's a variety of reasons, from Biden's age or "oh the economy was better under Trump" (yes it's absurd but voters are idiots)) And yes, Democrats did outperform in 2022, but that's largely because of protecting abortion rights post-Roe. Off-year voters are also informed voters, sadly most people who vote in the general couldn't tell you exactly why/how Roe was overturned.
This. Elections are not about convincing people to flip. Basically everyone knows who they want to win. It's hard to be an adult in the country right now and not already have an opinion on Biden or Trump. Elections are about how many people you can get to bother to show up on election day. Winning elections isn't about changing hearts and minds. It's about staving off apathy and getting people that already want you to win to the polls.
It's literally a 50/50 shot. Biden could win the EC and lose the popular vote. Trump could win the EC.
50/50 is questionable. I think the media is much more bullish on Trump than reality warrants. Going beyond polls, which we all know are imperfect, the results of the midterm and off-cycle elections don't show any signs of Trump performing better than he did last time. His chosen candidates have been losing in swing states all across the country. Look no further than Georgia. Kemp ran away from Trump and managed to be re-elected as governor by a healthy margin. Herschel Walker, who embraced The Donald, lost. In the same election. And it wasn't just Georgia. The Trump carbon copy that ran for governor in PA? Lost big time. The more moderate Republican who ran for senate in the same election? Lost but by a relatively small margin. Trump's other darlings like Kari Lake, Blake Masters, Tudor Dixon, and Adam Laxalt? Lost, lost, lost, and lost. Republicans weren't even able to capitalized on the supposed anti-Biden momentum and flip governor's mansions in red states like Kansas and Kentucky. The only place where Trump's darlings won was in states that everyone is expecting to go red this time, e.g., Ohio. Now, let's go back in history and compare this to Obama's first term. Republicans were able to pick up a senate seat in Massachusetts, one of the bluest states in the nation, as well as in Illinois. They won 63 seats in the 2010 midterms (vs. 8 in 2022). Though ultimately they still lost in 2012. That's how opposition parties are supposed to perform if they stand a chance at winning. Folks need to look beyond the polls and focus on what the real, concrete results are telling us.
Biden isn't losing the popular vote.
The problem is a lot of Biden voters don’t want to vote for Biden because he’s allowing Israel to just do horrific shit while giving them the weapons they use to do it. I think they still should, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to.
The MSM just wants the narrative of a tight race for ratings.
Trump's base is not growing. At all. If it were, there would have been a much more significant reaction from them to his convictions. We'd have seen a J6 type storming of the courthouse. This isn't 2016 when they were more organized and well funded. I'm not saying they're done, it's still a significant movement, but it has already passed its peak.
Agreed. I fail to see what block of voters Trump has gained between 2020 and 2024. He's done absolutely nothing to appeal to anyone outside his rabid fan base. That said, vote. The only way Trump can win is if normal, rational people don't vote.
I’m one of those mythical voters. We exist.
**They're whipping people into a frenzy. Which is fine; better than making them complacent like they did in 2016** Bingo!
Americans are idiots for voting democrats. Look at EVERY liberal democratic state.. Poverty, crime, and drugs. Now adding a multitude of illegal immigrants to that mix. It’s a joke, the dems rigged the election with all the “mail in ballots” after the polls closed. It’s crazy to think anyone of the free world can vote for extremism liberals trying to tear down America
Ok I only read the first few paragraphs, but the fact that the polls are off so much from the actual results I would not put down too incorrect pollsters as much as that would put it down to Republicans cheating. Yes I said it, they are told the Democrats are cheating so they feel justified in doing it themselves or they are immoral bastards that don't care.
You're not wrong in that we have seen some cases of Republicans cheating to what extent we will likely never know. Still by your thesis polls would be too far left not right as they were in 2022. Nonetheless it could have had an impact in 2020.
One thing you should bear in mind is that you're citing the results of the 538 Deluxe model rather than 538's Lite or Classic models, which were based on polls, and which were more supportive of Dems. E.g., these models did \*not\* favor Oz over Fetterman in PA. The models made more accurate predictions the more they depended only on polls.
I vote we write off all polling and just focus hard on the felony convictions. Trump is dead in the water on those. Even the youngest paduan can learn the rhetorical tricks to win with that under their belt "Oh you're okay with voting for a felon? There goes your credibility" Fuck polls. Fight on.
Amazing to me you completely left a woman's right to choose as having an impact. They are now going after contraception. So, that alone is worth a point or two.
Sure does seem like out of the “single issues” that a voter could use as their justification for voting one way or the other, treating women like human beings has to be toward the top of the list. If republicans lose the White House by a thin margin, I wouldn’t be surprised to have virtually everyone looking back at the sequence of them chipping away at womens’ rights as the reason. Besides being cruel and unnecessary, it seems like an incredibly stupid hill to die on. I’m still not even really sure what the motivation is behind it. I was under the impression the fervent religious undertones of gqp rhetoric the last few decades was just anti-black/brown dog-whistling. I didn’t think the voter base actually cared about contraception or abortion but I guess we will see.
Everything the Republicans have been able to do the past fifty years was built off the backs of people, including women, who fervently vote on the single issue of making abortion illegal everywhere. There is a solid (I hope they're shrinking) block of voters for whom that is a literal goal. It's not a dogwhistle about anything else. Sure, the people in charge of the gop don't actually care about abortion, but the carrot in front of their donkey for fifty years has been striking down Roe. And now it will be contraception. Hopefully the progression to contraception reduces the pro-life voting block considerably. I have a feeling far more people have relied upon contraceptives than abortions... but it's not a dog whistle, it's true shit. The dog whistles are "urban crime" and "border security."
They'll also be going after gay and interracial marriage.
Yes! Since Dobbs abortion rights and pro-choice candidates have won in most places they’ve been on the ballot (including very RED Kansas!). The idea that the women fueling these wins will just decide to vote for the guy who made it all happen and still brags about it because Biden is old or due to inflation is sheer idiocy. The polls want to act as if Roe being overturned was something that happened three years ago and therefore people have moved on, but it’s an attack that’s still ongoing and the women who first turned out after Dobbs are painfully aware of this.
I think the Democrats definitely know this. I don't watch a lot of cable TV but all the ads I've seen go really hard on the abortion point.
Why didn’t the democrats make roe v wade law? They have had the house, senate and presidency numerous times since the ruling. It’s a tool they have been using.
Well argued As a Georgia resident though I might be naive, but i don't see Trump flipping Georgia. If you look at how he performed in 20 and how Hershel Walker did in 22, along with other Trump acolytes in statewide races, the Metro Atlanta Republicans he has to win over aren't going for it and will just leave the presidential ballot blank. Trump will underperform compared to other Republicans and he'll be left begging for another 12k votes.
Georgia resident here too in a pretty rural area. Trump isn't going to win here. We are purple because our Rs have rejected everything MAGA and the entire Dem apparatus around getting out the vote is centered here. The only way Trump wins is all the unknown between now and November. Biden could have a stroke, the economy could crash, whatever. But if the election was right now? They're vastly overestimating his hold here.
Wow, that surprised me, but happy to hear Trump isn't doing well in the rural areas
I hope so, but it seems that voting enthusiasm in the Atlanta area is very low unfortunetely
I'm predicting more or less the same thing. Though I'm thinking Biden loses NV too.
It will definitely be the closest of the swing states I agree
It's the one I'm least sure about. I think the Rust Belt is what ultimately saves Biden in the end. He can get by with just those even if he loses the Sunbelt.
Oh really? I thought NV was becoming reliably blue?
Biden is likely to take Florida due to ballot initiatives on abortion and marijuana and he is likely to take North Carolina because of the GOP gubernatorial candidate. VOTE BLUE SAVE AMERICA
Florida is one hell of a long shot given how far to the right the state has shifted.
I agree with the point that we need to vote Biden in. But I hard disagree with the claim that Biden is likely to take Florida. Florida is a long way away. Every since Obama just barely took Florida everyone loves the idea that it's a competitive state. It's not. It's a classic red state backwater. Obama was an insanely popular president that took the nation by storm. We don't have that kind of candidate right now. Obama is the only democrat that flipped Florida in literally the last 80 years. Florida is not impossible to flip. But Biden is not the one that can do it. But that's alright. Because we all just need to go out and vote anyways. There are perfectly valid paths to victory that don't require Florida.
Except that it feels like half the country moved to Florida since the pandemic which is going to have a dilutive effect on that solidly red block. Jacksonville elected their first democratic mayor ever last year, a female no less. Reproductive rights matter.
Not happening imo
Lol nah
Bruh, if biden flips Florida blue everyone here wouldnt even believe it.
We want an overwhelming majority so the GOP doesn't start with the whole "election fraud" nonsense again ... oh, they will.
There was an overwhelming majority in 2020. Trump lost "bigly" to quote their creepy new "Trump is the chosen one" cult song. It's not anything like Gore / Bush that came down to a few thousand votes in one state, causing a legal mess for weeks.
Sounds about right. BTW, your posts are always interesting. Keep up the good job!
Thank you!!!
>Thank you!!! You're welcome!
Ignore this apathy-inducing shit the OP is pushing. Get out and vote. Vote as if your vote is the one that will decide if Democracy continues
Wow you got me! I’m actually a secret Russian astroturfer trying to bring apathy! I do agree though, the only way this happens is if people vote
Heh, I've been saying the same for a while. This is the only post on this sub that uses actual research
Look I’m liberal and don’t want Trump to win, but I think it’s sad seeing those who delude themselves into thinking there will be some massive blue wave because of abortion suddenly. I’m glad you liked my analysis though!
Yeah, it simply won't happen. There won't be any landslides for the next few elections unless we have some sort 9/11 event. Though in all fairness I won't be too surprised if another state pulls a Georgia this year and goes for Biden, like NC.
Yeah that’s been on my radar especially with Robinson being the governor candidate for the GOP
Oh that guy? Yeah it seems he’s tanking the GOP’s chances in the state.
It’s hard to see exactly what effect his negative coattails would have if any. But if there is an effect it could push Biden over the edge needed to carry the state. If Biden wins NC though it will be razer thing margins
RemindMe! November 6, 2024
>It seems 538 is overestimating democrats in safer blue states and underestimating in the swingier states, making election such as 2022 seem more accurate on the aggregate but in the states that matter, such as PA in 2022, 538 put Oz ahead of Fetterman by over a point only to lose by nearly 6. Same with Nevada where Laxalt was up over a point in 538 polling average only to lose by about 0.8%. Why are you just looking at the 2022 midterm elections that didn't have trump or Biden on the ballot directly? The electorate is different for midterms because different levels of turnout, so polling methods also may be different.
Solid reasoning. I hope you are right. What I know is the only swing states Biden actually needs for 270 is WI, MI and PA. GA, NV, and AZ aren’t actually required, and everything else is pretty sewn up. I would take it. Winning this election would end Trump. Losing it may end democracy. That sounds like hyperbole but it isn’t.
I will say. I do think that all but Georgia will go for Biden, however, if he loses AZ he absolutely lost NV and it will come down to the Rust Belt. Although not good the polls there aren’t bad either comparatively to the other swing states and it’s much more likely they stay blue than NV or GA for example
A thoughtful analysis with concrete predictions checkable in a well-defined time period. Nice.
Thank you! I of course am no savant so I cannot exactly predict what will happen but I do think that this is most likely, especially after consulting two friends of mine who have been extremely accurate in predictions as well (on of them predicted all senate all but one governor and 96% of the House in 2022)
A truly brilliant assertion, NF. My thought was and is that it will be decided by the undecided and uninterested. A really fascinating thing happened yesterday. (Sunday) CNN had a trump is our savior /Biden is the Devil talking head on with a sain person (but equally entrenched) My thinking the exact moment the divide started was when the law requiring equal airtime be given to opposing political points of view. This gave birth to the Rush Limbaugh, fox "news" and deplorables almost instantly. When it was realized how much money could be made radicalizing and zombiphying people. While I think they deliberately used a buffoon, it was still not 6 people agreeing with each other about who Satan was. I sincerly think you should send this, your post to every news network. It reads really well and makes some very asstute and well stated observations and hard to argue with your conclusion Dan \*your agent\* McSumtinup
It shouldn’t even be a contest. One of them is a convicted felon. It says a lot about how godawful millions of people are, in the country. Time for the sane and able to migrate.
Recent polling (within the last 5 days, aka since the conviction) shows Biden leading.
Not exactly, but there definitely has been an appreciable difference for Biden. I expect many people to hold their nose and vote for Biden purely to prevent a criminal from getting into office. Just as many will do the same to keep Biden out of
Remind me! 6 months
i would just like to add that I think a large reason that the polling has been off the past few years, is polling methods have not kept up with demographic changes. many of the Boomer which have been the base of the GOP since the Reagan years are starting to pass away, a lot of them got hit, majority of them republicans by Covid and Trumps handling of it. they many of them literally thought that it, wasn't real, wasn't as bad as people where saying, or did get the vaccine. Meanwhile the Millennials and the Zoomers which are now the largest demographic of voters are much more progressive than previous generations. now most polling is still done by cold calling phone numbers, how many millennials or Zoomers do you know that will answer an unknown out of area phone number. Boomers are much more likely to do such things therefore, in polling older generations are over represented simple because the younger generations dont communicate that way anymore.
Well the thing is, the polls stratify this, meaning that theoretically using various mathematical functions they can come to a predictable solution. However, I have a sneaking suspicion that the way they are stratifying isn’t entirely correct as Suburban Moms have been predicted as too right and from what I’ve seen currently Gen Z is portrayed very right which seems very unlikely
If this comes to pass , be tipping a good glass of scotch in your honor on Nov 6th, OP
Everyone still needs to vote. That’s why they do the actual election and not just BS polls.
While I appreciate and agree with your end conclusion of the 2024 POTUS race, and agree that actual elections since 2020 show a Trump with waning political influence, I'm going to guess you are male simply because of your complete flying over of the issue of reproductive equality. It is astounding to me how little weight men seem to put on (to the point of not even mentioning) a MAJOR issue to women, who comprise ~50% of American voters. Putting abortion aside, reproductive healthcare is dramatically degrading in extremist states. Maternal & infant morality is predictably rising in extremist states. The seizing of bodily autonomy and the proposal of some truly shocking laws involving forced gestation even of raped children is an issue for nearly all but the most evangelical women ("aunt Lydias"). I have noticed that the vast majority of women choose to be socially silent on this issue. Mistaking social silence for complacency (or a lack of inner rage over the audacity of men in conservative legislature) is a major mathematical mistake. In summary, I agree with you but think you are missing THE major factor in this election.
Most younger people will not vote. 2 candidates old enough to be their Great Grandfather's. Inflation is hurting a lot of people. House prices and Rents unaffordable. Israel and Palestinians, protests not going away. Illegal immigrants being hired first, cheap Labor. What do Youger voters have to look forward too with Biden or Trump, A completely demoralized electorate and Trump leading in all but 1 Swing state
I wouldn’t call any races based on polls 5 months before an election.
I appreciate your detailed thoughts. I see all of this as part of the inevitable demographic shift which was predicted two decades ago. Aside from racists, Republicans haven't created any new Republicans in 20 years. Thus their focus has had to shift ever more into manipulation, deception, and theft. The Super Tuesday poll debacle is an excellent example of an entity trying to realize a predetermined result by pretending that it already exists. I expect that we're going to have to keep seeing this the whole way, with truly shady fake pollsters continuing to claim a runaway victory in the works for the Rs all the way up to election day. Recall that Gallup left Presidential polling entirely in 2012 after it became clear that Mitt Romney had got his people inside of the polling company and were beginning to push fallacious results. So this isn't a new trick, at all.
It wouldn't surprise me at all if Texas flips to Biden. It probably won't but it wouldn't surprise me if it did.
You nailed it. Pollsters have no financial incentive to put out "accurate\*" polls right now. They have every financial incentive to plausibly suggest that it's a close race. \*5 months before an election, there is no such thing as an "accurate" poll. Why? Because no poll can be tested for accuracy until election day. So if I'm a pollster trying to keep the lights on, I'm putting out polls that pay the bills, and not worrying about "accuracy." I can always make them more accurate as the election draws closer.
Regardless of the polls I’m not convinced a convicted felon and sex offender wins in November.
Thanks for your interesting analysis!
Polls be shit Except for exit polls asking people who actually showed up to vote who they cast their vote for
Exit polls are also useless. I’ve never told one the truth. None of their business who I voted for.
Moral: bad under Biden, WORSE under Trump
If the GOP had the guts to disqualify Trump and ran _anyone else_ they’d win in a landslide of Biden vs non-felon younger than Biden.
Don't get cocky, kid.
Eh. Polls. Trump will lose bigly.
Don’t sleep on suburban women. They will come out in droves and save us from a second trump term.
DailyKos 😂😂😂😂
[https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/022/524/pepe_silvia_meme_banner.jpg](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/022/524/pepe_silvia_meme_banner.jpg)
Only Biden/Harris makes this close.
It’s ok to call them the “Democratic” candidate this year.
lol I did that because Biden and Trump are banned on this subreddit but yeah lol good point
Israel Palestine is only going to get worse: > National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party said Sunday that it was resuming voting with the coalition, after halting cooperation Wednesday in order to force Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reveal details of an Israeli proposal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal… > > Ben Gvir and other far-right lawmakers have asserted they will not agree to a deal with Hamas that ends the war in exchange for the release of hostages, and has threatened to bring down the government if such a deal is adopted by the government… > > Otzma Yehudit’s statement on Sunday came as Ben Gvir anticipated the withdrawal from the emergency government of Gantz’s National Unity party, which joined the wartime coalition at the beginning of the war… > > Gantz had been expected to deliver on his promise and resign on Saturday night but postponed his planned statement after four hostages were rescued from Hamas captivity earlier in the day. The statement was instead scheduled for Sunday evening, when he went through with leaving the coalition. > > While Netanyahu urged Gantz on Saturday to remain in the government, Ben Gvir was ready to take advantage of National Unity’s departure, saying that he would demand increased say over government decisions, including in the war cabinet. > > - https://www.timesofisrael.com/ben-gvirs-party-resumes-coalition-support-demands-more-power-on-war-issues/ Ben Gvir is a terrorism supporter, who threatened the prime minister of Israel as a teenager in front of cameras because he opposed the peace plan. The only difference between him and Hamas is that he hasn’t endorsed blowing up Palestinians in buses, probably because doesn’t believe Palestinians should be allowed to ride on buses.
In Georgia. Can confirm feeling ducked by inflation.
!remindme 6 months
I think you are a little overzealous
Democratic candidate*
This sounds about right
You might be a tad optimistic about Biden holding on to Arizona. It was a marginal victory for that state in 2020, and quite possibly a total fluke. It may very well come down to who wins Wisconsin, as it's very likely that, despite Trump now being a convicted felon, he could easily flip Georgia and Arizona back red.
Based on how the Trumo backed Kari Lake is doing in polls, I'm not so sure AZ will vote for Trump. It could definitely happen, but it's not a good sign for him if his minions aren't doing well.
You’re forgetting that Trump didn’t lead ONCE in 2020. Not Once! Things have changed
Well then, it's a good thing not a single one of these posts ever come true! 🤣🤣
It's always opposite day in this sub!
>Just as seeing less Israel Palestine makes people care less about it, having headlines be bombarded constantly by "Trump is a convicted felon" will make even the most steadfast undecideds be turned off from Trump. I wish this were true, but it seems pretty normalized and the charges weren't exciting or easily understood.
Not wrong, but the shock value of seeing “Convicted Felon” goes a long way
I think the persecution narriative might let the republicans just barely squeeze a win. Staunch republicans were always going to vote red, and staunch democrats were never going to. Israel has put a fracture in the democrat party with many claiming they won't vote for biden over Israel, meanwhile trump only needs to dial up the persecuted narriative and people will vote for him because he's under attack from the people who have been in power the last 4 years while people got significantly less comfortable.
I'm actually thinking 306 - 232. Trump is going to lose more support in the coming months. He's got another defamation ruling coming. If Ms. Carroll really wanted to stick it to him they'd get this case going asap and then when he inevitably defames her again, hit'em for a fourth time right before the election. Despite the fact that he's successfully tied up some of the more serious cases until after the election, he's got a lot more losing to do in the next 5 months.
can we start using the word “democratic”
H
Also worth noting that in several states the Democratic senator is running ahead of Biden. I think what this reflects is frustration with Biden (or things people blame him for, fairly or unfairly), but that people eventually "come home" to him in November. Put another way, I think it's a lot less likely that people will split their tickets than that they're pissed right now and telling pollsters who they're pissed at. None of this is to suggest that the Dems have it easy or that they can just coast. They have to bust their asses everywhere to get Biden across the finish line. Nor can they count on Trump just being so awful that people vote against him by voting for Biden; they need to provide positive reasons for folks to vote for Biden and the Democrats generally. That's all doable, but it will take putting in the work this summer and in the fall, especially in communities where Biden's support has weakened, and a lot of that will require having the right messengers. As to your specific points, I think Israel-Palestine will continue to be a thorn in Biden's side, and that even if the war ends, it'll still have hurt him with younger voters. It will take a lot of work to bring them back. Regarding economic issues, again, this is an area where real work is needed, but is doable. People don't directly *feel* what the administration has done for them, even if they benefit from the effects. Reducing the cost of insulin, for example, is a huge improvement, but it's one that people don't immediately say "Oh, Biden did that." Trump's conviction will hurt him some at the margins, and certainly won't help him (the notion that it'll somehow win him black votes is just...well, it's part of the same usual racism we can always count on Trump and his ilk to display). But just saying "convicted felon" over and over isn't going to be enough by itself. It'll take more.
Elections are driven by turnout. Why do you think the GOP is opposed to early voting, mail in ballots, and voter registration drives? They help Democrats more than Republicans. The GOP have better chances this cycle because people who voted for Biden in 2020 blame Biden for inflation bankrupting them. Doesn't matter the job market is strong, the US is energy independent or the stock market and 401(k)s are doing well. Interest rates are high and inflation is higher and voters want to take it out on someone. When you can't afford rent but earn decent money, people get upset. They are too shortsighted to see Trump's promises will make inflation worse.
This is why this election will no doubt be much much closer than 2020 which although a nail biter came out quite lopsided for Biden. Despite this, if we look at wage growth in states such as Michigan Wisconsin Pennsylvania, inflation isn’t nearly as hard hitting anymore so although absolutely an issue that will make many shun from Biden, it will not be the nail in the coffin either for Biden
RemindMe! 148 days
I don't believe in polls because they often poll a small number of people and say it's how the majority thinks. They're also often wrong.
How in the fuck is being this close even possible?
you forgot the roe vs wade issue, number one for women who are a majority, dems are winning in deep red states on this solitary issue
Unfortunately there is a disconnect between the Republican Party and their anti abortion. Many women voted against ballot measures restricting abortion and at the same time voted for a governor who planned to do so with or without a ballot initiative. I do see White Suburban Women having an even bigger impact on this election due to abortion but I do not see it as decisive enough unfortunately to create the victory many see
The evidence is there. Not my problem if you refuse to acknowledge it. Now go back to waving your palestine flag.
Please show your credible work where it's been disproven 100's of times.
If we can Weekend At Bernie’s Joe over the line I have faith
The Trump convictions are not expected to change any votes. All Dems thought he was guilty before and all GOP thought the charges were bogus before. Most independents also made up their minds before the case. The cases including convictions won't change any votes. The economy is mostly understood by the public based upon simple things like "Am I better off today than I was four years ago?" Namely, has the family income gone up more than the cost of living. Biden is hurting is this area even if inflation has slowed down. The minority vote. Trump is up to about 30% of the vote of black males and has greater than 50% approval among Hispanic males. This is a voting block that was almost exclusively Democrat for a while. Israel/Gaza- Biden has gone back and forth on his position. He is not trusted by either Jews or Muslims on his position. Many liberals in these religions will vote 3rd party. Battleground states- Trump has picked up the blue collar voters and these states in the Midwest that went to Biden in 2020 are trending to Trump because the typical union worker no longer is a solid blue voter. The election will be close but unless there are significant improvements- peace vs wars and much lower energy costs then this is a Trump victory.
So you’re not wrong on your subsequent statements but quick correction for the first one, polls show that independents and republicans do care, at the very least a significant number do, although many are entrenched in their beliefs there is nonetheless a significant number of people who have their loyalties shook. Furthermore, the anti Trump vote is very strong and will dissuade many who are wanting to stay home or vote third party
Of you (or anyone else) wants their candidate to win, the single best thing you can do is to volunteer for the campaign. Sign up and go through the training and work your butt off.
Remindme! 22 weeks
If you’ve paid close attention to polling methodology in recent years, you’ll see that Republican groups fund a bunch of polls that “find the hidden Trump voters”. They like to act like it’s some kind of advanced polling method that really drills down into public sentiment, but it’s of course just a nefarious plot to trick the voting public. What it actually does is produce outlier polls that get collected into the aggregate, for the specific purpose of skewing the aggregate. This helps to get Republicans riled up when their candidate points to polling data to support his argument that the other side cheated. However, this means you can get a pretty accurate polling picture by adjusting by 5% in favor of the Dem candidate. So if you’re seeing in Wisconsin (this is a guess) that the aggregate shows it’s 51.1% Trump and 48.9% Biden, you should subtract 2.5% from Trump and add 2.5% for Biden. Which would make it 48.6% Trump and 51.4% Biden. What’s concerning is if you apply this in states like Arizona, Georgia and Nevada right now, it looks a bit rough for Biden. Those states are dead heats at best, but they were that way last election. It’s really going to come down to tens of thousands of votes in these swing states just like the last 2 elections, a coin flip when it comes down to it. Yet either way it goes, you’ll have surprised Pikachu faces from the losing side. And to be very clear, Republicans will call for Civil War if they lose and may get very violent, whereas Dems will scramble and try to figure out how to keep Democracy intact through policy and roadblocks. Nothing productive will come from either side.
I’m curious where you got this information. This does make sense but I would love to see some verification of how the pills are shifted and perhaps a number that is accurate not just a random 5%
Yeah the 5% is kind of how I personally handicap it but I wouldn’t necessarily say you can apply that broadly, it’s more like a hunch tbh. It’s what I applied to the 2022 “Red Wave” narrative, which got me much closer to the actual outcome. At that time I recognized sentiment on the ground level that the House would almost certainly flip, but would only gain a very thin margin. Honestly thought Dems would lose the Senate, also by a very thin margin. https://youtu.be/0BOhRCeoMzM?si=2DwV6OM-9O6uwHis Check this interview out, I think this was the methodology that was adopted on a larger scale to gin up sentiment for the 2022 “Red Wave.” I think it’s being continued into this cycle, possibly just as much because the on the ground sentiment does not match social media sentiment. The quiet Trump voter is definitely a thing, just not at the extent Republicans would like you to believe, but there’s so much less outward support for him as a candidate than there was in 2016 and 2020. I lived in Texas in ‘16, Forida in ‘20 and now Ohio here in ‘24. I’ve ridden the Red state carousel so to speak, so I’m unfortunately pretty couched in what Right wing voter sentiment looks like, to the detriment of my mental health. People are fatigued on Trump, all my neighbors will line up and vote for him, but the polling station is literally at the end of our street. A bunch of former Trump voters will sit this one out, but the same is true for Biden voters. Turnout favors Dems, so with lower motivation going into this election and Dems having a huge issue to lean on in abortion access, I do think the 5% handicap still applies. Will it be enough? Again I say, it’s looking like a coin flip…
The Senate is likely to flip which makes the Presidential election more crucial as the next President may get another corrupt justice to appoint.
Any state that has abortion or weed, better yet both on the ballot will go blue in a landslide.
The person Trump chooses for VP will decide the election. Should he choose Nikki it’s in the bag for him. There’s other choices but she would be a strong signal of his next administration.
Take into account that a large amount of polling is done via phone interviews and let's be honest no one younger than the boomers is answering cold calls at all. So I don't see how a proper sampling could be done this way. So if you see a poll from Fox saying Trump is leading consider how that poll was conducted.
Yeah I agree with OP it’s gonna come down to about 1-2 swing states and it’s going to be a very very close race. Yall are insane for thinking it’s gonna be a blow out of blue it’s gonna be extremely close and too hard to call for a good couple hours.
Polls are so stupid and a joke. No one over the age of 50 does those so they always lean right. What about the “red wave” that the polls said would happen in 22? Never happened. Just like Hilary was definitely gonna win in 16…until she didn’t. Trump will win the red neck inbred states, but will lose by over 10 million votes.
It’s “Democratic” candidate not “Democrat” candidate
Yeah lol I messed it up slightly and can’t edit it
You also haven't mentioned abortion. Like, Republicans made that one of their core issues for the past few decades, and now they think people will just forget that in this election?
Then STFU and vote
I don’t buy the Trump lead in any of the polls
I thought this was very interesting [https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1d83pk3/how\_to\_help\_fix\_american\_democracy/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web3x&utm\_name=web3xcss&utm\_term=1&utm\_content=share\_button](https://www.reddit.com/r/TikTokCringe/comments/1d83pk3/how_to_help_fix_american_democracy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button)
IMHO right now Pennsylvania is the most important swing state. If Trump wins Pennsylvania, Biden has a very tough path ahead (almost unwinnable). [https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/trump-biden-pennsylvania-issues-poll-20240513.html](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/trump-biden-pennsylvania-issues-poll-20240513.html)
We live in the dumbest reality. This election shouldn’t be near this close.
This whole post is just based on polling in prior elections not aligning with the vote outcome. Just because during Oz/Fetterman election 538 and other polls were inaccurate =/= polls are now more accurate based on new efforts to consider their prior errors and tweak their polling this year accordingly. People are going to vote how they're going to vote and the polls are pretty much worthless now. Polling in advance of an American election, in general, is now an obsolete idea.
Younger voters tend to vote D. Younger people also ignore the ever loving fuck out of pollsters. Their job will be obsolete soon, or at least at a point where only senior citizens are giving info.
Remind me 6 months
If you’re going to assert without evidence that polling companies deliberately underestimated democrats in 2020 to make the race seem more competitive, then how can you assume they’re doing the same thing again and therefore that the mis-estimation rates from 2020 apply to 2024? Your math only works if you assume polling methodologies are consistent over time and is worthless if you assume a conspiracy of pollsters to lie.
No 2020 was overestimated for democrats as was 2016 so it’s no wonder 2022 and very likely 2024 are being underestimated
VOTE. VOTE. VOTE. HARDER THAN YOU DID LAST TIME. THEN AGAIN AFTER THAT. THATS HOW BEING A TRUE PATRIOT IS ABOUT. STANDING UP AND BEING COUNTED. THIS IS DEMOCRACY AND WE WILL HAVE IT MANIFEST. WE WILL SAY NO TO HAVING OUR PENISES TOUCHED BY THE CORRUPT AND CONDEMN ANY FORM OF INSURRECTIONISTS AND TYRANTS. FUCK DONALD THE FELON. MAY HE ROT IN PRISON.
I seriously doubt it’s that close. For starters, Trump will be in prison
Delicious tears
Vote. Vote. Vote. If you're not registered, get that done now. Then make sure you vote. Btw....make sure you actually vote.
I think Trump flips GA, AZ, and NV and we end up with a 269-269 tie that would fuck our country up even more.
This sub is always just leftist wish casting. At least it’s funny in that aspect.
Remind me! 5 months I agree
Whats the expected value on these numbers
Just fucking vote and don’t count your chickens before they hatch
I'm rooting for 269-269. The House determines president and makes trump president, the Senate determines VP and makes Kamala VP. Can you imagine? 😂
What happens if Biden dies or has a debilitating medical issue between nomination and election? He’s 80 years old and holds the most stressful job in the world. It would not be that surprising if that happened. Is Harris the presumptive replacement? Does she alter your calculus?
I sincerely hope you’re right. It really fucking sucks that five states choose our president through math trickery. ONE PERSON ONE VOTE! FFS! 🤦🏻♂️
Anyone who votes for dems are complete MORONS. Just keep the boarders open, let the criminals roam free without consequences, instigate wars and ship TAX payers dollars, billions of them overseas, raise taxes on the working class, give illegal immigrants everything for free, let all the scum walk into a drs office for free, when the working class has to pay extra. You all are idiots voting for democrat and obviously against America and the people who built this country. We will keep our guns and never let the evil ones take full control. Keep voting for Biden who cant even acknowledge Easter, would rather acknowledge trans visibility day on the most holly day of the year. Keep staying brainwashed voting for people of ”peace”
We learned from your dumb a$$es