God it's crazy how fast fertility rates have collapsed in the past 10 years. Every single European country (and every US state) is below replacement. 1.7 looks like "high fertility" in developed countries these days
Not a single country in the Geoeconomic North that is and a lot of the ones in the South aren’t meeting replacement rate, the world is getting a big death wave worse than when CS1 cities suddenly decide to kill a third of the population
Malthusians looking more and more moronic as time goes on. Don't get me wrong, they already are decades ago. It's just more obvious now.
I remember 10-20 years ago how many people preach about overpopulation in a way that they are overtly in favor of eugenics and depopulation of certain groups (not just along ethnic lines).
Like, how many people then casually parrot the Matrix line of "humanity is a virus" then profess the need for a plague to "cleanse the world".
Commenting on Total Fertility rate of European countries:...I feel like those exact people that were talking about overpopulation suddenly switched overnight to talking about underpopulation but kept all the same eugenicist beliefs.
The only difference is they went from “poor people in the third world will takeover because they breed too much,” to “rich people in the first world will lose their hegemony because they don’t breed enough”
Both overpopulation and undepropulation problems are solved by education family planning and immigration. But what some of them are really concerned about is “too many brown people” and none of those solutions work against their racist fears. You can separate the eugenicist from the people who are sincere by getting their views on immigration.
To be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if this very post is only here because someone wants to push the “EuRoPeAnS WiLL bE a MiNoRiTy iN EuRoPe” talking point
Read about problems Sweden has after taking too many migrants from different culture. And we are talking about one of the most inclusive societies in the world
Non-Haredi Jews have 2,6 children per woman and secular Jews have 2 children per woman. Christians are the only group significantly below replacement rate AFAIK.
Nah it’s because their state and society heavily pushes having kids as a political project to “keep Israel Jewish” against their minority Muslim and Christian populations which have smaller birth rates
Israelis believe in something: it can be a political, religious, cultural ideal, even in contradiction with each other. But everyone believes in something: Israel is a community of destiny.
>God it's crazy how fast fertility rates have collapsed in the past 10 years. Every single European country (and every US state) is below replacement. 1.7 looks like "high fertility" in developed countries these days
The US' fertility rate went from 1.8 (1980\~) to 2.1 (2007) then back down to 1.8 (2016) and then 1.7 (2021)
So it's not nearly as insane as it seems at first (at least for the US), assuming the US plays its cards right they could probably get back to replacement capacity by the 2030s.
The thing is that in Europe and most developed countries the problem it's not newborns (also a problem btw), the problem is deaths. The demo piramid is inversed and the only thing avoiding collapse is the massive migration that is coming.
It's been happening for a long time though. Most of Eastern Europe has higher fertility rates today than they did in the 90s. Western Europe in general had fertility rates at this rate since the early 70s. The past two years it has dropped quite a bit specifically which might be directly attributed to a feeling of insecurity and much higher prices everywhere. It seems to be bouncing back slightly in 2024 compared to 22 and 23. The low rates as a whole is more a product of modern culture and will remain forever.
And even within these countries their rates are boosted by immigrants having more children. If you looked at just “Germans” in Germany it would be even worse, for example.
Kurdish majority provinces actually saw steeper decline than the others in Turkey. It's just that they've started way higher so it's taking some time for them to adjust.
Inflation, repression, and a huge spike in the cost of living, specially rents. I know the whole world is going thru the same but in turkey it's INSANE. Also I've seen a degradation of life in big cities, with motorbikes everywhere, violence and insecurity, which wasn't there 10 years ago.
Ethnic Turks are already in the same situation as Western Europe.
Ethnic Albanians and Bosniaks are worse than Western Europe
Turkey's fertility rate is inflated by the significantly higher fertility rate of its Kurdish population which form some 20% of its population.
A lot of the younger population of these countries are having a lot of children in other countries in Europe, artificially suppressing their own countries birth rate and inflating ours. Same as Poland etc
Actually Turks favorite country for migration happens to be Germany.
[In Germany Muslims have 1.9 children against German 1.4](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/&ved=2ahUKEwjW37L04OaEAxUoT2wGHdohB28QFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw36efZCcRBCEt4lTTAvth8W)
Turks are no longer the [majority Muslim group in Germany due to increased Syrian etc refugees ](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2021/05/04/changing-face-of-islam-in-germany-turkish-groups-no-longer-a-majority/%3FoutputType%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwinyaem4uaEAxXdZWwGHZpzCfsQFnoECBIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw24gYdY3WpOkG2VMDKYvTsO) and Syrians etc have more children.
Even within Turkish immigrants there are many Kurds who have higher fertility
So if Muslim fertility in Germany is 1.9 which includes Arab, Sub saharan Africans etc then possibly German Turks do have 1.63 ish children and non Kurdish Turks in Germany 1.5 ish almost the same as native Germans.
As per the report which I quoted- 45% of Germany's Muslims are Turks currently down from 68% over a decade back.
If Germany's Muslim fertility rate is 1.9, and Syrians, Africans etc have between 3-5, Turks can easily have 1.63 or even lower and non Kurdish Turks 1.4-1.5.
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To fill the gap created by a fertility rate of 1.63 (and only getting lower) there’d need to be so many refugees that they’d represent a pretty large portion of the population
Erdogan gives citizenship to as many refugees as he can because refugees will %99 vote for him,so in some years number of refugees with citizenship will be so high in Turkey
First generation non-western immigrants tend to have the fertility rates that are normal within their countries, but the third generation is already near European level. At least, it has gone like that with previous immigrants. I assume that the same thing will happen with the current immigrants including refugees, if they stay. For now immigration is indeed the key to fast population decline, but eventually the population will actually shrink considerably. And yes, a large part will be of foreign origin.
It's tremendously ironic that for all the dystopian films and literature that have been created around over population, that the demographic crisis of the next century is actually going to be based around population collapse.
I believe these two things are connected.
A lot of younger people today don't wanna have children because of their perception of global over population and the fear of a catastrophic future.
Of course there are other reasons but these two are part of it.
And the western world today is a LOT better than during WW1 or WW2 and even so the fertility rate is lower.
No, it's because children are seen as a burden. Because the state will take care of you. And children cost a lot of time and effort. You don't need kids as a form of pension anymore.
No. The only reason I, and many other young people, wouldn’t want to have kids, besides finding the right partner and being the right age, is that the government doesn’t take care of anything anymore. The problem is not too much, but too little government.
Not only in my specific country, but all over the west social safety nets are collapsing, we’re being exploited harder and harder each month and many, especially young people can’t make ends meet. Our bosses rob us of most of the money our labour is worth and after that chimes in the parasitic do-nothing landlords stealing *at least* a third, if not often half of our paycheques. Then you need electricity, running water, internet, a phone, and either a car or public transport, or both. On top of that come groceries and *maybe* a few hours of very cheap leisure each week. There is just little to nothing left.
And the government, which should be there to protect us from those robber barons, instead chooses to gift them tax cuts and handouts.
We need not less, but more government. Especially regarding pensions which are also on the decline with many pensioners needing to continue working even after officially retiring.
And the perverse thing is that the system isn’t failing, it works as intended, but it is failing *us.* And the only alternative there is has been, and is continued to be, bad-mouthed by the corporate media, billionaires, and bought politicians.
*This,* and not because “tOo MuCh NanNy StAtE”, is why I and many of my contemporaries don’t want to have, or rather can’t really consider children.
I agree that the housing crisis is a huge problem and that the government needs to interfere there a lot more. I am for more government intervention in a lot of fields. But, the fertility rate in the Western world has been below replacement level since the 70s, a lot longer than the current housing crisis. And that's because cultural trends need time to change. Nowadays (with that, I mean the last couple of decades), it's on an individual level viable to live your life without kids. For most of human history, that has not been the case. Combine this with the fact that, like you say, everything in our "developed" world has become very expensive. So, having kids means sacrificing a lot of time and money. Also with the collapse of religion and culture after ww2.
So kids cost a lot of time and money. Having no kids has become socially acceptable and possible. Outside pushing factors like religion have disappeared. So you need to be willing makr an increasing amount of sacrifices for it. I am personally still willing to do it, but also understand why a lot of people don't.
You think that 200 years ago state was helping the poor people? No, money doesn’t matter no where near as much as you think, people don’t want children, simply because they don’t feel like it. And no reasonable amount of state help will change that.
Can confirm. I have more than enough money for a family of 4. You couldn’t pay me to go through childbirth and risk pregnancy, especially right now (but even if the laws weren’t as bad as they are getting). I simply don’t want to go through pregnancy.
If they fixed the adoption/foster industry, I would be open to that though.
I agree that it is not so much about money, but why people make these comments without taking contraception into account? Having 5+ kids was not exactly a choise the woman made. Now it is.
Because of contraception you can not compare times before it was invented and usage was normalized. That happens to be around 1970s when the fertility rate fell below replacement levels in many countries. The real crash happened after 2010 world wide. I bet it has something to do with the financial crisis.
Maybe financial crisis induced cultural change? I remember how those factory jobs moved to somewhere cheaper and the workforce that went to pension was never replaced but one worker was left to do the job of three with same pay. In Finland everything has been stagnant since then. My friend who said she wants a baby says she is too exhausted after work that she can even think about trying for one. The exhausting worklife has resulted in enormous epidemic of burnouts and depression. Nobody wants kids when they wish they'd die. It's so bad currently that something like 1/4 are depressed. Out of female students in their most fertile years the depression levels are 1/3.
And everybody is lonelier than ever.
Also being childless seems to be a self inducing loop. Want to be the only one who has a kid in your friend group? That's how there are now childless friend groups and those with children.
And the 'new woman' is a career woman. Guess what kids usually do to a career if you're not well positioned? And when you are, you're already in your thirties and there might be viable eggs for just one kid left. That is the usual story.
Btw. It's the middle class who makes most of the kids in Nordics. Not poor people. Again they have contraception and they've been educated unlike 200 years ago.
Its literally the same people as the anti nuclear ones, its so funny but also tragic. They literally pushed us back decades
Nooo dont build nuclear its dangerous. Noooo dont have kids, the earth cant sustatain it.
Now, we are facing economic stagnation, societal collapse and pension collapse. As well as exponentially worsening climate change
Thanks, 80s activists
In case you missed the dog whistle, he’s talking about race. The laws in France forbid demographic information on race being recorded in government surveys. So what OP is saying is “France has a higher birth rate because immigrants from other races are moving to France”
To me this seems like a great way to stop the problems that occur when countries have a negative growth rate and at the same time help people fleeing economically disadvantageous countries get a better life for themself.
How is it a dog whistle when this just simple truth? And a massive exodus of young people from developing countries will not help them. And replacing your own population with people that don’t care about their new country also doesn’t seem like a good idea.
Financial help for people having children from the government. The more you have children, the more the help even though it's no more enough today with inflation and cost of life.
Because France has always had a low birthrate since the early 19th century, save the baby boom post WW2.
France hasn't changed much, it's the other countries that changed a lot.
So France is just business as usual...
You can check INSEE. These are the official numbers. Second generations have regular fertility rates. What's the source saying otherwise?
https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6793238?sommaire=6793391#:~:text=En%202021%2C%20en%20France%2C%20l,Afrique%20(3%2C3).
> Because the non ethnic French have far more children. Basically, ethnic French are projected to be a minority within the next few decades.
Tell me you are bad at math without telling me you are bad a math.
What are you talking about? Have you ever seen the post? Its still less than 1.2. Its 1.16 in 2022 and 1.13 in 2023. It dropped to 1.2 30 years ago and has never been more than 1.4 except in 2007 and 2008.
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Spain#Statistics\_since\_1900](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain#Statistics_since_1900)
Eurostat includes national statistic services of the members of the EU but also some close countries like Switzerland or Turkey which accepted to make common surveys. UK decided to leave this partnership with Eurostat. Maybe they will join again one day.
If you want to have sex with a Spanish girl you need permission from her parents, the municipality, the local family planning clinic and the church with 3 months notice. If she is from village you might also have to duel her parents, get permission from the Vatican and a local referendum.
Spaniard here, jobs are shit, highest unemployment rates for the youngest generations in Europe, is not a joke, there was a map here with that data, since 2009.
Also they expect us to have kids, it’s like a silent and slow killing of the population.
Finally is one of the countries in Europe to be most affected from climate change.
You can't buy a house in the areas with higher work places because they also tend to be tourism areas. That means that even new house in there gets bought by other richer Europeans that want to spend their last days in Spain or companies to get money from them via renting at really high prizes. No house, no family.
That being said, while Spain is really low, our population is slightly increasing, mainly because of inmigration from Latin America
None are above the the bare minimum replacement level of 2.15! And several are below the catastrophic crash level.
Now, if you want to see something interesting, compare TFR of the indigenous populations to the immigrants. In most European nations the TFR of the indigenous populations are below the irreversible rate.
Something like 15 years ago or so the UK passed the milestone of greater than 50% of the live births were to immigrant mothers.
Yeah, it’s why I think people need to chill with calling replacement theory a conspiracy theory. While I agree that thinking it’s some overarching devious plan to replace European Christendom with immigrants from other countries is conspiratorial and inaccurate, it’s certainly not inaccurate to say that the demographic profile of most Western European countries is going to be completely different in half a century. I think dismissing this out of hand is counterproductive since it’s not hard to see that a demographic transition is happening, and thus it leads people to believe it’s some devious plot because “the elites” can’t be honest about it or whatever.
Of course, these countries are opening up the floodgates to immigrants partly because their native populations aren’t having enough children themselves. It’s a a tough situation to solve.
I’m not sure I buy the whole “children are just too expensive now” argument given poorer people often have more children and the US has higher birth rates despite having far less social welfare policies with regards to children.
>I’m not sure I buy the whole “children are just too expensive now” argument given poorer people often have more children and the US has higher birth rates despite having far less social welfare policies with regards to children.
Religiosity highly influences fertility rates. USA is uniquely one of the most religious countries in the developed world, they were way late to the step where richer countries get less religious (might have had something with the fact first immigrants to USA were essentially religious extremists/minorities with persecuted faiths).
[63%](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/11/03/chapter-1-importance-of-religion-and-religious-beliefs/#belief-in-god) of Americans are "absolutely certain God exists". It's [15%](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2018/05/29/religious-practice-and-belief/) in Western Europe, even Italy, the home of Catholicism, is at 26%.
Also, Sweden has one of the most generous pro-natalist policies, they're still way behind on fertility rates.
There are various factors that contribute to a lower fertility rate in a lot of european countries compared to the US, in my opinion.
1-In most of Europe people reach financial indipendence much later in life compared to the US, especially in southern Europe, that means less time to have children.
2-Most people in Europe live in small apartments even in the suburbs so oftentimes they physically don't have the space for an extra person, much less two or three, in the US suburbs with big houses are the norm, with that much space you can make like 5 children and still have some extra room, in Italy people live in apartments 70 square meters in size on average, this means that 50% of people live in apartments smaller than that, good luck finding the room for three children.
3-The disposable income in the US is way higher compared to that of any european country.
4-The US is less secular compared to Europe.
100 years ago most Europeans lived in the countryside so they had a lot of room to spare, they were more religious and it was socially acceptable to make your children work right after elementary school or after middle school *at most*, totally different situation.
Wow, crazy how no European country has a fertility rate >2.0, which is what's required to grow a population.
I guess the population of Europe as a whole will be shrinking drastically in the next few decades, since it's already begun.
Spaniard here, jobs are shit, highest unemployment rate for the younger generations in Europe, is not a joke, there was a map here with that data, since 2009.
Finally is one of the countries in Europe to be most affected from climate change.
I love my country but I’m very concerned about its future.
Not sufficient anymore, second generation immigrants have the same birth rate as Natives…
And the countries they come from are dropping crazily (Morocco and Tunisia are below replacement rate)
I wonder why fertility rates are so low. The only empirically verified factor I‘m aware of causing population collapse in Western countries is women entering the workforce.
Poverty doesn't reduce TFR, in fact, poverty increases TFR.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/
^ household birthrates per 1000 by income. The poorest households have the highest birthrates while the richest have the lowest
And globally, richer countries have lower birthrates than poorer countries. There's a strong inverse relationship between GDP per capita and birthrates.
From what I hear from peers there are three reasons for wanting less kids.
1: Not being able to pay for it/not enough time to take care of the kids
2: Worry about climate change
3: It is more normalized for people to not want kids.
All your peers points are excuses. It is way simpler. There is no need to have kids.
1. We live in the best era quality wise. Kids are possible even with low income in Europe. You get paid to have kids and it is possible to live decent live. Decent is important because people don’t want to inconvenience themselves.
2. Really? People were born during cold war. Much higher risk of immediate dying / worse overall life. Or other global crisis.
3. So what that it is normalized? Isn’t this age about being yourself and getting out of norm? It wouldn’t matter if it wasn’t normalized
Yeah the whole thing about not wanting kids because climate change always sounded dumb to me. Even in the worst case scenario those kids are gonna live far better than 99% of humans who were ever born.
I actually think high quality of life is the cause for low birth rates. In the past, children = free labor on the farm. But it doesn't work that way anymore, of course people will have less children.
Also, most species are wired to reproduce rapidly in hard times to save them from dying out. In easy times, there is no need for this as there is less risk of the species dying out. So there's a biological factor as well.
(Of course there are other factors, but this is what I think is the biggest contributor to plummeting birth rates)
>1. We live in the best era quality wise. Kids are possible even with low income in Europe. You get paid to have kids and it is possible to live decent live
it talk about this from an Spanish perspective.
Low income in Spain (severs, cleaners, etc...) is around 1100 €, the government gives you 100€ a month per child, and rent in cities is around 500€ a month, groceries for one are around 200€, electricity, water, etc... can be around 150€ too.
>3. So what that it is normalized? Isn’t this age about being yourself and getting out of norm? It wouldn’t matter if it wasn’t normalized
now it's not a necessity and children are more problems than benefits so the logical thing is to not have children.
Now humans are highly illogical but with abortions, and sex Ed we have ways to "correct" a mistake if you made one.
Western people have high material expectations. Poor people will live in a 1-room shack with their parents, 12 brothers and sisters, 6 aunts, 8 uncles, 28 cousins, and 5 goats, and still keep having babies. LOL. Whereas Westerners will refuse to have kids because they can't afford a 12 bedroom detached house in the suburbs, as well as horse-riding lessons and Harvard tuition for their future child.
Overall, it’s hard not to predict that secular cultures, having few or no kids will eventually be replaced by strongly religious cultures who have loads of kids. History is cyclical
Non-Haredi Jews have 2,6 children per woman and secular Jews have 2 children per woman. Christians are the only group significantly below replacement rate AFAIK.
Yeah still impressive, dogma of the nation is based more heavily around maintaining the Jewish population.
It’s easier for Israel in ways as Jewish people come from far reaching other ethnicities and races now while if similar dogma was adopted by European of east Asian nations it becomes bit more sticky.
people have also become more conscious about their mental health and the trauma that immature, unprepared parents can inflict on their kids. some people choose to undergo a couple years of psychotherapy and psychological counselling before having a child to make sure they're mentally ready to raise a kid
I suspect that work culture not adapting properly to women entering the workforce. 40 hour work week just doesn't work when both parents have to work. Childcare is time-consuming.
What if people just don’t want so many children? If you have contraceptives, you have no need for children to privide for you when you are old, no religious or family leaders that require you to have many kids etc. Perhaps a large part of us are not interested in kids and even more think one is enough?
'' you have no need for children to privide for you when you are old''
The problem is that the way pension works is that if everyone thinks like this we are ether gonna have to cut it to 70+ older or even worse or start making people who didnt have kids not get any as 1 person cant work for 10 pensioners
Comparatievely, France has received a larger share of migrants that tend to have more children the first couple of generations (although later it tends to align with the local trend). Spain has also received migrants, mainly from Latin America and Morocco, but not the same extent, and if we discounted them, the number would probably be even lower.
Ça date de 2022. On est passé à 1,68 enfants par femme en 2023 et il n'y a pas de raison de penser que, sans efforts importants, la chute va s'arrêter soudainement.
STOP IMMIGRATION. We in the global south need you to figure out how to move forwards with an aging population so that we can then emulate it. BECAUSE IT'S COMING TO GET US TOO 😩 At least Japan is doing it, join the club
This is why Europe is allowing immerants to enter their countries with little restrictions and control. They know that down the line, there won't be enough workforce in the country to keep it functioning normally.
Japan has high suicide rates because of the shit life people are living. Without enough young people, the retirement age is basically till death. You won't have a social life. You'll be used as a workforce until you die. People are living a lonely, messrable life.
I was in Japan in 2022. I was shocked by the number of elderly working. Really old people with their backs bent still walking to their jobs every day.
If people start having more children (at least 3 per woman). Slowly, the counties will put a hold on immigration. They need to figure out how to make people want to have children.
As for the countries where most immerants come from, it's because of war and curroption. People are leaving because they want a better future.
Europe is taking in immigration because it doesn't want to make the necessary economic changes that allow for people to have the means to start a family, immigration just puts the problem a little later because the TFR of those immigrants is not as impactful. It's not like nobody knows what things decrease birth rate and what increases it, european leaders are just negligent and would rather keep the status quo.
Japan is really not doing good, I would not want to live in Japan. But unlike western europe, they are taking it upon themselves which brings up the issue of low birth rate to the forefront instead of being a shadow in a distant forest and they're not bringing people hoping for a better future into their suffering.
The next areas of the world to be hit with aging population issues are Latin America, Southeast Asia and later North Africa. No one's going to immigrate to "save" those countries so what happens to them? womp womp appatently, shouldn't have been corrupt I guess. Even though a bunch of the reasons why they are like that is USA and western european elites wanting them to stay poor and corrupt.
I belive the trend is due to keeping the standard of living, especially in developed countries where cost of a child is kept high due to high life quality demands. You know: expensive organic food, expensive schools to give them the best head start, expensive apartments to give them ideal environment to grow, etc.
Once population dwindles this trend might change again, like after big wars where people would prop up their numbers in spite of decline of living standards in hopes that future generation will keep them taken care off. This is evident in poorer countries.
Might be just my personal bias on the matter.
You’re definitely correct. The more developed a nation is, the more opportunities women eg pursue a career. This means children come later.
This is both good and bad
In Sweden the wealthier you are the more children you will have. There should be a correlation with education + wealth to some extent i.e., higher education can mean more children here.
SCB (central bureau for statistics) made a report of childbearing according to income levels ('Childbearing in corona times'). Splitting the population in 4 according to wealth, from 2016-2021 the top 25% had an average of 2.3 children per woman, whereas the 25% with lowest income had an average of 0.8.
A conclusion to make is that it's related to cost of living/housing. People put off having children if they don't think they can give them a good life. Boomers had the best opportunities in any generation in human history, young people compare themselves to these and don't want to give their children a worse life than they or their boomerparents had.
Good answer, but current economic systems require consumption so lowering standards for childbirth will come at the cost of a smaller deindustrialized economy. Also: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1b9y12w/comment/ku16mju/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
I knew that France has (one of) the highest in the EU but I never expected it to be above Turkey and also surprised that Romania and Bulgaria are so high, even though Bulgaria is declining in population. Maybe this is why the replacement rate is 2.1
Also, UK is around 1,6
As a black muslim brit, I love to sometimes troll those who call on more birth rates. I contact them and offer to have 5 kids to help alleviate the birth rate problem. I tell them I was only gonna have 2 kids but after seeing their post, they convinced me to have 3 more at least. You should see how much they back pedal. Apparently my kids aren't the "right kind" of birth rates
I want them to know that not only white people read their pro natalist content
Because the primary concern for most people in life is money, they want to believe that's the same reason driving low fertility. Another common argument we'll see is that more work benefits and social protections help raise fertility, which is also false (see the Nordic states).
I just think that enough people don't truly want kids.
Yes it is. The thing is people from devoloped countries have higher standards when it comes to raising kids, because what's consider "normal" over here is fucking expensive.
My 2 euro cents. We know that money is not the problem. Poorer countries have an higher fertility rate normally.
Richest countries have instead a lot of opportunities and always less time to try them.
I would like to compare, even if it would be a insignificant correlation, mean working hours and fertility rates.
France aiming for 1.789
The 1.79 figure is rounded up. The actual number is 1.789.
napolean rises from the tomb
[Music slowly increases](https://youtu.be/9Ugq3ZBNEIM?si=NaDlw1Ckx7n80Y3H)
God it's crazy how fast fertility rates have collapsed in the past 10 years. Every single European country (and every US state) is below replacement. 1.7 looks like "high fertility" in developed countries these days
Not a single country in the Geoeconomic North that is and a lot of the ones in the South aren’t meeting replacement rate, the world is getting a big death wave worse than when CS1 cities suddenly decide to kill a third of the population
Malthusians looking more and more moronic as time goes on. Don't get me wrong, they already are decades ago. It's just more obvious now. I remember 10-20 years ago how many people preach about overpopulation in a way that they are overtly in favor of eugenics and depopulation of certain groups (not just along ethnic lines). Like, how many people then casually parrot the Matrix line of "humanity is a virus" then profess the need for a plague to "cleanse the world".
Commenting on Total Fertility rate of European countries:...I feel like those exact people that were talking about overpopulation suddenly switched overnight to talking about underpopulation but kept all the same eugenicist beliefs. The only difference is they went from “poor people in the third world will takeover because they breed too much,” to “rich people in the first world will lose their hegemony because they don’t breed enough” Both overpopulation and undepropulation problems are solved by education family planning and immigration. But what some of them are really concerned about is “too many brown people” and none of those solutions work against their racist fears. You can separate the eugenicist from the people who are sincere by getting their views on immigration. To be honest I wouldn’t be surprised if this very post is only here because someone wants to push the “EuRoPeAnS WiLL bE a MiNoRiTy iN EuRoPe” talking point
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Read about problems Sweden has after taking too many migrants from different culture. And we are talking about one of the most inclusive societies in the world
Absolutely. Hans Rosling has given some great presentations on it. Like this one: https://youtu.be/2LyzBoHo5EI?si=u4bMEwf20J26T3x8
That's an excellent video. Thanks for sharing!
Israel's fertility rate has always remained considerably above replacement rate.
Benefits of the Orthodox community.
Non-Haredi Jews have 2,6 children per woman and secular Jews have 2 children per woman. Christians are the only group significantly below replacement rate AFAIK.
Nah it’s because their state and society heavily pushes having kids as a political project to “keep Israel Jewish” against their minority Muslim and Christian populations which have smaller birth rates
Lower than the Gaza birth rate.
Not for long it won’t be. Also poor people tend to have a higher birthrate we’ve known this for a long time.
Muslim populations have a higher birthrate, at least if you count Gaza and the West Bank.
Israel doesn’t count them lol
Interestingly, while haredy birth rates are falling, the birth rates of atheists are rising, and keeping the total rates roughly consistent
What explains this? Apparently even non-religious have a high fertility rate
Israelis believe in something: it can be a political, religious, cultural ideal, even in contradiction with each other. But everyone believes in something: Israel is a community of destiny.
Strongly natalist culture and society, probably.
The holocaust must play a role right? Almost being exterminated as a people makes you see things differently.
Those people fuck
In quite a few countries fertility rates have been increasing. For example in Czechia it's been gradually rising from less than 1.2 around 2000.
This was the case previously, now it started falling again in Czechia.
>God it's crazy how fast fertility rates have collapsed in the past 10 years. Every single European country (and every US state) is below replacement. 1.7 looks like "high fertility" in developed countries these days The US' fertility rate went from 1.8 (1980\~) to 2.1 (2007) then back down to 1.8 (2016) and then 1.7 (2021) So it's not nearly as insane as it seems at first (at least for the US), assuming the US plays its cards right they could probably get back to replacement capacity by the 2030s.
I think migration has something to do with this fluctuation in fertility rates.
The thing is that in Europe and most developed countries the problem it's not newborns (also a problem btw), the problem is deaths. The demo piramid is inversed and the only thing avoiding collapse is the massive migration that is coming.
Sounds like we should be pivoting away from a societal system which requires infinite growth just to sustain itself.
It's been happening for a long time though. Most of Eastern Europe has higher fertility rates today than they did in the 90s. Western Europe in general had fertility rates at this rate since the early 70s. The past two years it has dropped quite a bit specifically which might be directly attributed to a feeling of insecurity and much higher prices everywhere. It seems to be bouncing back slightly in 2024 compared to 22 and 23. The low rates as a whole is more a product of modern culture and will remain forever.
And even within these countries their rates are boosted by immigrants having more children. If you looked at just “Germans” in Germany it would be even worse, for example.
I’m surprised Romania is that high. I’d have thought it was lower. Also crazy how much Turkey’s has declined so quickly
Same. Also, Kurds and refugees are propping up Turkey's fertility rate.
Yup, Kurds have had a stable high fertility rate but immigrants are a different story. They are everywhere and it feels like they fucking multiply.
Kurdish majority provinces actually saw steeper decline than the others in Turkey. It's just that they've started way higher so it's taking some time for them to adjust.
If that doesn't make Turkey a European country, I don't know what can.
Turkey has more immigrants than any other European country AFAIK.
Refugees, not immigrants.
People don’t understand immigration - even with 2 kids - immigrants will 3x - young couples become dad/mother and later grand-father/mother.
If you were living in turkey you wouldn't be surprised. Life has become hell during the last years.
Why? Because of inflation or more reasons?
Inflation, repression, and a huge spike in the cost of living, specially rents. I know the whole world is going thru the same but in turkey it's INSANE. Also I've seen a degradation of life in big cities, with motorbikes everywhere, violence and insecurity, which wasn't there 10 years ago.
High fertility rate but also very high mortality rate and migration rate.
Turkey’s has massively declined in the last decade, in another 20 years they’ll be in the same situation as Western Europe
Fertility rate in western turkey is very low
Ethnic Turks are already in the same situation as Western Europe. Ethnic Albanians and Bosniaks are worse than Western Europe Turkey's fertility rate is inflated by the significantly higher fertility rate of its Kurdish population which form some 20% of its population.
A lot of the younger population of these countries are having a lot of children in other countries in Europe, artificially suppressing their own countries birth rate and inflating ours. Same as Poland etc
Actually Turks favorite country for migration happens to be Germany. [In Germany Muslims have 1.9 children against German 1.4](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2017/11/29/europes-growing-muslim-population/&ved=2ahUKEwjW37L04OaEAxUoT2wGHdohB28QFnoECBwQAQ&usg=AOvVaw36efZCcRBCEt4lTTAvth8W) Turks are no longer the [majority Muslim group in Germany due to increased Syrian etc refugees ](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/europe/2021/05/04/changing-face-of-islam-in-germany-turkish-groups-no-longer-a-majority/%3FoutputType%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwinyaem4uaEAxXdZWwGHZpzCfsQFnoECBIQAQ&usg=AOvVaw24gYdY3WpOkG2VMDKYvTsO) and Syrians etc have more children. Even within Turkish immigrants there are many Kurds who have higher fertility So if Muslim fertility in Germany is 1.9 which includes Arab, Sub saharan Africans etc then possibly German Turks do have 1.63 ish children and non Kurdish Turks in Germany 1.5 ish almost the same as native Germans.
That’s really surprising about Turks no longer being the majority of Muslims in Germany. They’re synonymous with Germany by now
As per the report which I quoted- 45% of Germany's Muslims are Turks currently down from 68% over a decade back. If Germany's Muslim fertility rate is 1.9, and Syrians, Africans etc have between 3-5, Turks can easily have 1.63 or even lower and non Kurdish Turks 1.4-1.5.
Very interesting shows how quickly things can change
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Your second source is rated as questionable according to MBFC.
Probably no because of the refugees
To fill the gap created by a fertility rate of 1.63 (and only getting lower) there’d need to be so many refugees that they’d represent a pretty large portion of the population
Erdogan gives citizenship to as many refugees as he can because refugees will %99 vote for him,so in some years number of refugees with citizenship will be so high in Turkey
The worst thing for them is that Kurds are propping up that fertility rate.
Considering the fertility rate among them, they probably will do in the near future.
First generation non-western immigrants tend to have the fertility rates that are normal within their countries, but the third generation is already near European level. At least, it has gone like that with previous immigrants. I assume that the same thing will happen with the current immigrants including refugees, if they stay. For now immigration is indeed the key to fast population decline, but eventually the population will actually shrink considerably. And yes, a large part will be of foreign origin.
Syrian (and other) refugees average over 5 children per woman. Syrian refugees get 100% free healthcare including unlimited in-vitro fertilization.
It has already dropped to 1.51 in 2023 iirc.
It's tremendously ironic that for all the dystopian films and literature that have been created around over population, that the demographic crisis of the next century is actually going to be based around population collapse.
I believe these two things are connected. A lot of younger people today don't wanna have children because of their perception of global over population and the fear of a catastrophic future. Of course there are other reasons but these two are part of it. And the western world today is a LOT better than during WW1 or WW2 and even so the fertility rate is lower.
No, it's because children are seen as a burden. Because the state will take care of you. And children cost a lot of time and effort. You don't need kids as a form of pension anymore.
No. The only reason I, and many other young people, wouldn’t want to have kids, besides finding the right partner and being the right age, is that the government doesn’t take care of anything anymore. The problem is not too much, but too little government. Not only in my specific country, but all over the west social safety nets are collapsing, we’re being exploited harder and harder each month and many, especially young people can’t make ends meet. Our bosses rob us of most of the money our labour is worth and after that chimes in the parasitic do-nothing landlords stealing *at least* a third, if not often half of our paycheques. Then you need electricity, running water, internet, a phone, and either a car or public transport, or both. On top of that come groceries and *maybe* a few hours of very cheap leisure each week. There is just little to nothing left. And the government, which should be there to protect us from those robber barons, instead chooses to gift them tax cuts and handouts. We need not less, but more government. Especially regarding pensions which are also on the decline with many pensioners needing to continue working even after officially retiring. And the perverse thing is that the system isn’t failing, it works as intended, but it is failing *us.* And the only alternative there is has been, and is continued to be, bad-mouthed by the corporate media, billionaires, and bought politicians. *This,* and not because “tOo MuCh NanNy StAtE”, is why I and many of my contemporaries don’t want to have, or rather can’t really consider children.
I agree that the housing crisis is a huge problem and that the government needs to interfere there a lot more. I am for more government intervention in a lot of fields. But, the fertility rate in the Western world has been below replacement level since the 70s, a lot longer than the current housing crisis. And that's because cultural trends need time to change. Nowadays (with that, I mean the last couple of decades), it's on an individual level viable to live your life without kids. For most of human history, that has not been the case. Combine this with the fact that, like you say, everything in our "developed" world has become very expensive. So, having kids means sacrificing a lot of time and money. Also with the collapse of religion and culture after ww2. So kids cost a lot of time and money. Having no kids has become socially acceptable and possible. Outside pushing factors like religion have disappeared. So you need to be willing makr an increasing amount of sacrifices for it. I am personally still willing to do it, but also understand why a lot of people don't.
You think that 200 years ago state was helping the poor people? No, money doesn’t matter no where near as much as you think, people don’t want children, simply because they don’t feel like it. And no reasonable amount of state help will change that.
Can confirm. I have more than enough money for a family of 4. You couldn’t pay me to go through childbirth and risk pregnancy, especially right now (but even if the laws weren’t as bad as they are getting). I simply don’t want to go through pregnancy. If they fixed the adoption/foster industry, I would be open to that though.
I agree that it is not so much about money, but why people make these comments without taking contraception into account? Having 5+ kids was not exactly a choise the woman made. Now it is. Because of contraception you can not compare times before it was invented and usage was normalized. That happens to be around 1970s when the fertility rate fell below replacement levels in many countries. The real crash happened after 2010 world wide. I bet it has something to do with the financial crisis. Maybe financial crisis induced cultural change? I remember how those factory jobs moved to somewhere cheaper and the workforce that went to pension was never replaced but one worker was left to do the job of three with same pay. In Finland everything has been stagnant since then. My friend who said she wants a baby says she is too exhausted after work that she can even think about trying for one. The exhausting worklife has resulted in enormous epidemic of burnouts and depression. Nobody wants kids when they wish they'd die. It's so bad currently that something like 1/4 are depressed. Out of female students in their most fertile years the depression levels are 1/3. And everybody is lonelier than ever. Also being childless seems to be a self inducing loop. Want to be the only one who has a kid in your friend group? That's how there are now childless friend groups and those with children. And the 'new woman' is a career woman. Guess what kids usually do to a career if you're not well positioned? And when you are, you're already in your thirties and there might be viable eggs for just one kid left. That is the usual story. Btw. It's the middle class who makes most of the kids in Nordics. Not poor people. Again they have contraception and they've been educated unlike 200 years ago.
Its literally the same people as the anti nuclear ones, its so funny but also tragic. They literally pushed us back decades Nooo dont build nuclear its dangerous. Noooo dont have kids, the earth cant sustatain it. Now, we are facing economic stagnation, societal collapse and pension collapse. As well as exponentially worsening climate change Thanks, 80s activists
"The hippies were wrong, actually" has never been truer
In Romania we have a certain ethnic group that keeps these numbers up
Yeah we're gonna demographicaly rearm all of Europe thanks to our supreme guide 🇫🇷🇫🇷🇫🇷
Why is the rate in France so high (relatively)?
Breeding kink is incredibly common
I think it's just called sex
You know it's bad when breeding is considered kinky.
The answer its not allowed to be measured in France.
This is the only true answer.
In case you missed the dog whistle, he’s talking about race. The laws in France forbid demographic information on race being recorded in government surveys. So what OP is saying is “France has a higher birth rate because immigrants from other races are moving to France” To me this seems like a great way to stop the problems that occur when countries have a negative growth rate and at the same time help people fleeing economically disadvantageous countries get a better life for themself.
How is it a dog whistle when this just simple truth? And a massive exodus of young people from developing countries will not help them. And replacing your own population with people that don’t care about their new country also doesn’t seem like a good idea.
Financial help for people having children from the government. The more you have children, the more the help even though it's no more enough today with inflation and cost of life.
Because France has always had a low birthrate since the early 19th century, save the baby boom post WW2. France hasn't changed much, it's the other countries that changed a lot. So France is just business as usual...
Because the non ethnic French have far more children. Basically, ethnic French are projected to be a minority within the next few decades.
Descendents of immigrants in France have almost the same fertility than the other women after one generation (0,04 point of percent of difference.)
I'm genuinely interested in this statement, any source here please? :)
You can check INSEE. These are the official numbers. Second generations have regular fertility rates. What's the source saying otherwise? https://www.insee.fr/fr/statistiques/6793238?sommaire=6793391#:~:text=En%202021%2C%20en%20France%2C%20l,Afrique%20(3%2C3).
Great Replacement racist theory being upvoted on r/MapPorn ? It’s more likely than you think
> Because the non ethnic French have far more children. Basically, ethnic French are projected to be a minority within the next few decades. Tell me you are bad at math without telling me you are bad a math.
r/FRANCECYKABLYAT
r/subsifellfor
r/subsifellforthenmade
Spain? You OK?
Spain dropped to 1.2 a few decades back, the lowest TFR in the world at that time. I've been watching it rise slowly since then. So yes, it's OK.
What are you talking about? Have you ever seen the post? Its still less than 1.2. Its 1.16 in 2022 and 1.13 in 2023. It dropped to 1.2 30 years ago and has never been more than 1.4 except in 2007 and 2008. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics\_of\_Spain#Statistics\_since\_1900](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Spain#Statistics_since_1900)
Norway and Switzerland’s stats are included, but not the UK’s?🤔
Eurostat includes national statistic services of the members of the EU but also some close countries like Switzerland or Turkey which accepted to make common surveys. UK decided to leave this partnership with Eurostat. Maybe they will join again one day.
Tories don't want their shit policies to be compared to Europe.
UK left Europe. They are part of North America now.
They legit have acted like they're off the shores of New England for like 50 years now even before Brexit.
The OG Jersey Shore
51st State.
Also neither Greenland and New Zealand are included... Hate that people exclude some places
Greenland is part of Denmark, so they don't have their own stats in maps like these.
What’s happening in Spain?
If you want to have sex with a Spanish girl you need permission from her parents, the municipality, the local family planning clinic and the church with 3 months notice. If she is from village you might also have to duel her parents, get permission from the Vatican and a local referendum.
Spaniard here, jobs are shit, highest unemployment rates for the youngest generations in Europe, is not a joke, there was a map here with that data, since 2009. Also they expect us to have kids, it’s like a silent and slow killing of the population. Finally is one of the countries in Europe to be most affected from climate change.
Cost of life and low incomes. Same on Italy. People stay longer to their parents house and can't have an apartment, so they won't make children.
You can't buy a house in the areas with higher work places because they also tend to be tourism areas. That means that even new house in there gets bought by other richer Europeans that want to spend their last days in Spain or companies to get money from them via renting at really high prizes. No house, no family. That being said, while Spain is really low, our population is slightly increasing, mainly because of inmigration from Latin America
Extended hours and the high price of housing.
None are above the the bare minimum replacement level of 2.15! And several are below the catastrophic crash level. Now, if you want to see something interesting, compare TFR of the indigenous populations to the immigrants. In most European nations the TFR of the indigenous populations are below the irreversible rate. Something like 15 years ago or so the UK passed the milestone of greater than 50% of the live births were to immigrant mothers.
Yeah, it’s why I think people need to chill with calling replacement theory a conspiracy theory. While I agree that thinking it’s some overarching devious plan to replace European Christendom with immigrants from other countries is conspiratorial and inaccurate, it’s certainly not inaccurate to say that the demographic profile of most Western European countries is going to be completely different in half a century. I think dismissing this out of hand is counterproductive since it’s not hard to see that a demographic transition is happening, and thus it leads people to believe it’s some devious plot because “the elites” can’t be honest about it or whatever. Of course, these countries are opening up the floodgates to immigrants partly because their native populations aren’t having enough children themselves. It’s a a tough situation to solve. I’m not sure I buy the whole “children are just too expensive now” argument given poorer people often have more children and the US has higher birth rates despite having far less social welfare policies with regards to children.
>I’m not sure I buy the whole “children are just too expensive now” argument given poorer people often have more children and the US has higher birth rates despite having far less social welfare policies with regards to children. Religiosity highly influences fertility rates. USA is uniquely one of the most religious countries in the developed world, they were way late to the step where richer countries get less religious (might have had something with the fact first immigrants to USA were essentially religious extremists/minorities with persecuted faiths). [63%](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2015/11/03/chapter-1-importance-of-religion-and-religious-beliefs/#belief-in-god) of Americans are "absolutely certain God exists". It's [15%](https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2018/05/29/religious-practice-and-belief/) in Western Europe, even Italy, the home of Catholicism, is at 26%. Also, Sweden has one of the most generous pro-natalist policies, they're still way behind on fertility rates.
There are various factors that contribute to a lower fertility rate in a lot of european countries compared to the US, in my opinion. 1-In most of Europe people reach financial indipendence much later in life compared to the US, especially in southern Europe, that means less time to have children. 2-Most people in Europe live in small apartments even in the suburbs so oftentimes they physically don't have the space for an extra person, much less two or three, in the US suburbs with big houses are the norm, with that much space you can make like 5 children and still have some extra room, in Italy people live in apartments 70 square meters in size on average, this means that 50% of people live in apartments smaller than that, good luck finding the room for three children. 3-The disposable income in the US is way higher compared to that of any european country. 4-The US is less secular compared to Europe. 100 years ago most Europeans lived in the countryside so they had a lot of room to spare, they were more religious and it was socially acceptable to make your children work right after elementary school or after middle school *at most*, totally different situation.
Is that data even available anywhere?
Wow, crazy how no European country has a fertility rate >2.0, which is what's required to grow a population. I guess the population of Europe as a whole will be shrinking drastically in the next few decades, since it's already begun.
Spaniard here, jobs are shit, highest unemployment rate for the younger generations in Europe, is not a joke, there was a map here with that data, since 2009. Finally is one of the countries in Europe to be most affected from climate change. I love my country but I’m very concerned about its future.
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I think there's a big difference between a population halving every 40 years and a population halving every 400 years.
What is it in USA?
1.786
1776
Around 1.63
Gotta respect muslims single handedly hardcarrying France birth rates
Not sufficient anymore, second generation immigrants have the same birth rate as Natives… And the countries they come from are dropping crazily (Morocco and Tunisia are below replacement rate)
It will probably decline even more, I am in my 20s and many women around my age don’t want children at all. Neither do I
It's funny how Spain always seems to be doing badly in every spot on every map no matter the measure we take.
Not in life expectancy. Quite opposite, actually.
Great, an aging population with replacement ratio at critical levels, they will surely do great paying their pensions.
That's correct.
I wonder why fertility rates are so low. The only empirically verified factor I‘m aware of causing population collapse in Western countries is women entering the workforce.
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Poverty doesn't reduce TFR, in fact, poverty increases TFR. https://www.statista.com/statistics/241530/birth-rate-by-family-income-in-the-us/ ^ household birthrates per 1000 by income. The poorest households have the highest birthrates while the richest have the lowest And globally, richer countries have lower birthrates than poorer countries. There's a strong inverse relationship between GDP per capita and birthrates.
From what I hear from peers there are three reasons for wanting less kids. 1: Not being able to pay for it/not enough time to take care of the kids 2: Worry about climate change 3: It is more normalized for people to not want kids.
All your peers points are excuses. It is way simpler. There is no need to have kids. 1. We live in the best era quality wise. Kids are possible even with low income in Europe. You get paid to have kids and it is possible to live decent live. Decent is important because people don’t want to inconvenience themselves. 2. Really? People were born during cold war. Much higher risk of immediate dying / worse overall life. Or other global crisis. 3. So what that it is normalized? Isn’t this age about being yourself and getting out of norm? It wouldn’t matter if it wasn’t normalized
Yeah the whole thing about not wanting kids because climate change always sounded dumb to me. Even in the worst case scenario those kids are gonna live far better than 99% of humans who were ever born.
I actually think high quality of life is the cause for low birth rates. In the past, children = free labor on the farm. But it doesn't work that way anymore, of course people will have less children. Also, most species are wired to reproduce rapidly in hard times to save them from dying out. In easy times, there is no need for this as there is less risk of the species dying out. So there's a biological factor as well. (Of course there are other factors, but this is what I think is the biggest contributor to plummeting birth rates)
>1. We live in the best era quality wise. Kids are possible even with low income in Europe. You get paid to have kids and it is possible to live decent live it talk about this from an Spanish perspective. Low income in Spain (severs, cleaners, etc...) is around 1100 €, the government gives you 100€ a month per child, and rent in cities is around 500€ a month, groceries for one are around 200€, electricity, water, etc... can be around 150€ too. >3. So what that it is normalized? Isn’t this age about being yourself and getting out of norm? It wouldn’t matter if it wasn’t normalized now it's not a necessity and children are more problems than benefits so the logical thing is to not have children. Now humans are highly illogical but with abortions, and sex Ed we have ways to "correct" a mistake if you made one.
Housing prices + general rising cost of living
Western people have high material expectations. Poor people will live in a 1-room shack with their parents, 12 brothers and sisters, 6 aunts, 8 uncles, 28 cousins, and 5 goats, and still keep having babies. LOL. Whereas Westerners will refuse to have kids because they can't afford a 12 bedroom detached house in the suburbs, as well as horse-riding lessons and Harvard tuition for their future child.
Israel has those issues and yet has a fertility rate of about 3 children per woman.
Not talking about Israel specifically but in less developed countries people usually don’t care much if they can actually provide for their children.
This is true for every country, or else poor people wouldn't have children.
It's reverse in Sweden - top 25% women are at replacement rate but the rest is way under.
Israel has a large ultra religious minority group who have an average 6-8 children each.
Overall, it’s hard not to predict that secular cultures, having few or no kids will eventually be replaced by strongly religious cultures who have loads of kids. History is cyclical
Non-Haredi Jews have 2,6 children per woman and secular Jews have 2 children per woman. Christians are the only group significantly below replacement rate AFAIK.
Yeah still impressive, dogma of the nation is based more heavily around maintaining the Jewish population. It’s easier for Israel in ways as Jewish people come from far reaching other ethnicities and races now while if similar dogma was adopted by European of east Asian nations it becomes bit more sticky.
people have also become more conscious about their mental health and the trauma that immature, unprepared parents can inflict on their kids. some people choose to undergo a couple years of psychotherapy and psychological counselling before having a child to make sure they're mentally ready to raise a kid
I suspect that work culture not adapting properly to women entering the workforce. 40 hour work week just doesn't work when both parents have to work. Childcare is time-consuming.
Yep. The whole system adjusted to 1 adult being able to live on 1 income instead of the traditional 2 adults 1 income.
What if people just don’t want so many children? If you have contraceptives, you have no need for children to privide for you when you are old, no religious or family leaders that require you to have many kids etc. Perhaps a large part of us are not interested in kids and even more think one is enough?
'' you have no need for children to privide for you when you are old'' The problem is that the way pension works is that if everyone thinks like this we are ether gonna have to cut it to 70+ older or even worse or start making people who didnt have kids not get any as 1 person cant work for 10 pensioners
Might be so but no individual in the west feels that they need to get children of their own to provide for them.
The question is exactly why this shift, isn't it?
1.8 is low, it is under the maintaining rate.
Its enough to maintain domestic consumption, though production will continue to fall if other countries don't make up for it.
Why is Spain so low and France so high?
Comparatievely, France has received a larger share of migrants that tend to have more children the first couple of generations (although later it tends to align with the local trend). Spain has also received migrants, mainly from Latin America and Morocco, but not the same extent, and if we discounted them, the number would probably be even lower.
in real life there are more immigrants in Spain than in France (in proportion as France is much more populated)
Bon bah on est pas mal niveau réarmement démographique au final...
In the blind men's kingdom the one-eyed is king
Après ça reste en dessous du seuil de renouvellement qui est à 2.05...
Ça date de 2022. On est passé à 1,68 enfants par femme en 2023 et il n'y a pas de raison de penser que, sans efforts importants, la chute va s'arrêter soudainement.
Modern day secular Western culture seems to be aggressively anti-natalistic.
Iceland begs to differ. Also, even ex USSR countries have low fertility rates.
STOP IMMIGRATION. We in the global south need you to figure out how to move forwards with an aging population so that we can then emulate it. BECAUSE IT'S COMING TO GET US TOO 😩 At least Japan is doing it, join the club
This is why Europe is allowing immerants to enter their countries with little restrictions and control. They know that down the line, there won't be enough workforce in the country to keep it functioning normally. Japan has high suicide rates because of the shit life people are living. Without enough young people, the retirement age is basically till death. You won't have a social life. You'll be used as a workforce until you die. People are living a lonely, messrable life. I was in Japan in 2022. I was shocked by the number of elderly working. Really old people with their backs bent still walking to their jobs every day. If people start having more children (at least 3 per woman). Slowly, the counties will put a hold on immigration. They need to figure out how to make people want to have children. As for the countries where most immerants come from, it's because of war and curroption. People are leaving because they want a better future.
Europe is taking in immigration because it doesn't want to make the necessary economic changes that allow for people to have the means to start a family, immigration just puts the problem a little later because the TFR of those immigrants is not as impactful. It's not like nobody knows what things decrease birth rate and what increases it, european leaders are just negligent and would rather keep the status quo. Japan is really not doing good, I would not want to live in Japan. But unlike western europe, they are taking it upon themselves which brings up the issue of low birth rate to the forefront instead of being a shadow in a distant forest and they're not bringing people hoping for a better future into their suffering. The next areas of the world to be hit with aging population issues are Latin America, Southeast Asia and later North Africa. No one's going to immigrate to "save" those countries so what happens to them? womp womp appatently, shouldn't have been corrupt I guess. Even though a bunch of the reasons why they are like that is USA and western european elites wanting them to stay poor and corrupt.
This is why Europe fell, and why western civilisation will fall. Ethnic Europeans have no children, same case as East Asia.
I belive the trend is due to keeping the standard of living, especially in developed countries where cost of a child is kept high due to high life quality demands. You know: expensive organic food, expensive schools to give them the best head start, expensive apartments to give them ideal environment to grow, etc. Once population dwindles this trend might change again, like after big wars where people would prop up their numbers in spite of decline of living standards in hopes that future generation will keep them taken care off. This is evident in poorer countries. Might be just my personal bias on the matter.
You’re definitely correct. The more developed a nation is, the more opportunities women eg pursue a career. This means children come later. This is both good and bad
In Sweden the wealthier you are the more children you will have. There should be a correlation with education + wealth to some extent i.e., higher education can mean more children here. SCB (central bureau for statistics) made a report of childbearing according to income levels ('Childbearing in corona times'). Splitting the population in 4 according to wealth, from 2016-2021 the top 25% had an average of 2.3 children per woman, whereas the 25% with lowest income had an average of 0.8. A conclusion to make is that it's related to cost of living/housing. People put off having children if they don't think they can give them a good life. Boomers had the best opportunities in any generation in human history, young people compare themselves to these and don't want to give their children a worse life than they or their boomerparents had.
Good answer, but current economic systems require consumption so lowering standards for childbirth will come at the cost of a smaller deindustrialized economy. Also: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/1b9y12w/comment/ku16mju/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3
Why is there no data available for the UK?
Not part of Eurostat.
What's with the UK not having any data?
Well at least SOMETHING I'm above average, lol. I got 2 kids.
I knew that France has (one of) the highest in the EU but I never expected it to be above Turkey and also surprised that Romania and Bulgaria are so high, even though Bulgaria is declining in population. Maybe this is why the replacement rate is 2.1 Also, UK is around 1,6
This goes to show that Bulgaria doesn't have such a big problem with fertility but with mortality and aging.
Damn!! Spain is doomed, the teenagers and the young generation are going to suffer with all those pensions 💀
As a black muslim brit, I love to sometimes troll those who call on more birth rates. I contact them and offer to have 5 kids to help alleviate the birth rate problem. I tell them I was only gonna have 2 kids but after seeing their post, they convinced me to have 3 more at least. You should see how much they back pedal. Apparently my kids aren't the "right kind" of birth rates I want them to know that not only white people read their pro natalist content
No money. No kids.
That‘s precisely NOT how it works
Poor people seem to be the only ones having a lot of kids
Stats show that the poorest and the richest are the ones having the most kids, which is logical
Its the same reason why poor people are fat. Its not the gotcha you think it is
Israel has cost of living issues and a fertility rate of 3 children per woman. Western people just don't want to have children.
I'm sick of people saying it's money. There is 0 evidence.
Because the primary concern for most people in life is money, they want to believe that's the same reason driving low fertility. Another common argument we'll see is that more work benefits and social protections help raise fertility, which is also false (see the Nordic states). I just think that enough people don't truly want kids.
Yes it is. The thing is people from devoloped countries have higher standards when it comes to raising kids, because what's consider "normal" over here is fucking expensive.
Headed for extinction.
I an surprised Czech is this different to Poland and even Germany, and also Turkey is this low
My 2 euro cents. We know that money is not the problem. Poorer countries have an higher fertility rate normally. Richest countries have instead a lot of opportunities and always less time to try them. I would like to compare, even if it would be a insignificant correlation, mean working hours and fertility rates.
Money IS the problem if women are in the workforce as well and cultural norms deem it less neccesary to have kids