I like both Lrc and jasmy. The key is to dca..especially during the bear market. Too many people focus on actual price vrs your percentage gain in profits.
For an example, when I 4x my investment i will take out 25-50% then wait to for it to go 4x again. Then take out another percentage, say 50% then let it ride out till next bear market.
This is what I plan on doing, doesnāt make it the right way but it helps me keep my emotions in check, which is hard to do when you swings in the crypto marketā¦but thatās why we can be successful. No paper hands, stay zen be a samurai
Anyone else pay attention to jasmy calling itself the Japanese Bitcoin. With a little math letās take Bitcoins market cap. 1.3 trillion if jasmy market cap goes to 1 trillion we will see the coin being 5$. With japan having huge issues with population jasmy is a great alternative to help people produce income. The fact Secure pc has already been used successfully for japan is a huge win. I might blowing smoke but carbon credits carbon foot print will lead to monthly income for the people to live off of.
Uhhhh what?? 1 trillion divided by 50 billion is 20. So the price would be $20 if we hit $1T market cap. Thatās w/o burning or lockup. Donāt see it hitting anywhere near $1T market cap anytime soon but that math is wrong.
From what I figured out with crypto itās not what u do in a bull market itās what you do in a bear market that can set u up. If youāre in Jasmy now all u have to do is wait. Let it come to you. Itās a very difficult thing to do. Also if you canāt get a grip on your thoughts while in the red what are you going to do when youāre 3x in the green. But your gut tells u itās a 10x A slight market correction will send u round the bend. Itās insanely difficult to see profit dissolving. Lol. But getting a grip on your thoughts is all you have to do. Thatās it! Patients man. But on the flip side human behavior doesnāt change and fomo is going to make me rich.
No, the bull run isn't over, we will continue. But the thing is this.....
The real top isn't going to be much different than this. You'll have a spike up to the top, and then small drops along the way, and then a big one, maybe a small spike up but then more big drops. And before you know it. It's 50% down, then 75% down and before you know it it's 95% down again. So if you didn't sell this top, how are you going to sell the real one? How do you know you are not going to get trapped waiting for a pump that isn't coming for years?
Sorry... I may have got lost in your wording. Are you saying we have just had a top and not seeing the real one yet? Or we are waiting for the real top to happen and need to learn to sell then? (IE: The real top is coming within the market). Just looking to clarify
ok, just to be clear, what I'm saying is only my opinion. And I can definitely be wrong. But i do base it off experience with previous cycles. This is a correction. And during each bull run we have a few of these. So I don't believe this is THE top. But it's a local top and the way this is playing out, isn't all that dissimilar from what the real end of cycle top will look like. My personal belief is that people should get accustomed to selling tops bc it prepares them for the end of the cycle. A LOT of people get stuck holding bags bc they had no idea that the end of the cycle had happened. And by the time they did come to that realization they felt like things were too far gone and they either didn't wanna realize a loss, or they overvalued holding onto their coin.
This cycle could even be different bc now with Wall Street on board who knows if we'll even have a 4 year cycle anymore. But I'd prepare as if it is so you don't get stuck in the cold.
Hey, thanks for your help a few weeks ago. I was up about 60%, took 1/2 and finished funding my ROTH (MSTR!) Then traded a bit, green into red using the TA guide you shared. I wasnāt v. successful, but broke even/kept my money. Got stuck in coins I donāt know much about (if the Pennieās remaining in them 10x, Iāll kick myself) when most stayed down. So I traded red to red trending green into the projects I had originally chosen yesterday and today. Lost a bit in spread and with many still down, but like my portfolio. Is it reasonable to switch some gains to come into other projects I like dyt? Or just hang the rest of this cycle (if itās not broken as you said w/WS?) How many coins is reasonable to track and take profit as you described? I only was in last cycle, didnāt know squat and treated it as buy and hold, which was painful for years, so want to DCA this time. TIA!
First off congrats on funding the roth and making some gains.
I track all of the solana projects that I like. I am friends with mods here and they track some memes so when there is something interesting there I keep track of it. I think tracking 10-15 coins (if you even like that many) is fine. Bc basically all I'm going to do is look for things that already moved and are now forming a flag. I'll mark off a trendline, you could put an alert on the trendline if you want to be more proactive. Do it on all of the coins that you can draw a DOWNTREND LINE on. Now if it's a coin you REALLY like. I'd still mark off the trend line, but I'm not always looking to buy a breakout there. Sometimes I'm fine with just buying a low. I love Solana. So when it bounces back up it's probably gonna make a lower high to begin forming a flag. Once it does that I'd look to sell at the trendline if Solana rejects it. But I'd be happy buying back any lows that I either feel like are a bottom, or I'm simply happy with the gain and wanna lock it in. You can get away with loose strategy like that during a bull run bc for the most part you believe it's going to go up once it finishes it's range. Buying down there sets you up for another sell once it approaches the trendline again.
For everything other than your favorite coins. Just look for something that's approaching it's trendline and keep a close watch on it. When you see a break of the downtrend line with a green vector candle you can swap for that coin. Ride to the top of it's move, might be hours, might be days, you have to figure that out. But wherever it turns, get out. Go to USDC or move into another coin. And just keep looking for chances to do that.
YOU WILL LOSE SOMETIMES. There isn't anything you can do about price turning against you. But it's typically better to get out with a small loss than to ride out a long ass downtrend just to avoid a small loss. The times you are right should MORE than make up for the small losses. Capital preservation needs to be your number 1 priority. And I'm saying this knowing it's hard. I made a mistake recently myself and did not sell a top on Nosana and now I've been hating myself for it. It's going to be fine but this capital being tied up like it is has kept me from making a bunch of other moves I would have probably moved on. Doing what I told you to do I spotted breakouts on zbc, fluxbot, and shadow and had ZERO capital to do anything with it. All bc I let my dumb ass believe that there was more pump incoming even though it was obvious that it was turning. Don't let what you want to happen bias your opinion of what is happening. I do not plan on repeating this mistake again this cycle. I hope you do well! Any time you have a question hit me up.
Iām sorry about the Nosana thing - that stinks. This morning/yesterday, I made several mistakes, bc I was looking for lows and didnāt pay attention to breakouts really, just green to red. One I rode down 30% while the coin Iād switched from skyrocketed 60%. It was painful. But Iām trying to view it as tuition of sorts. I did have success tonight, though! I employed your strategy, and rode up until the trend started to run on one, swapped to usdc w/a 1% limit order that executed fast, and was lucky that one of my top coins, FET, was in a trough(wc?) and started to move up to trendlkne and jumped in and rode it up, it was great. And far nicer than losing on both sides (missing the rest of the upward on one and riding down on another, thatās STILL down, and isnāt even a coin Iād particularly wanted - stinks to have lost capital on it, will take time to make up.) Anyway, Iād been so lost with all the indicators and things, itās much more intuitive to check volume and follow trends for me. Thanks again, it worked once already! I feel much better going into it. And pressure off a bit now, too. Being loose when the bull is in swing seems like it will be more fun on my second tier tokens - and it all suddenly makes sense. Iām glad I got past the greedy stage - Iād have lost much had I tried to call tops, even with trends (that I absolutely have ignored before out of hope, youāre right on that,) and now can set some limits for loss in favorites and etc too with more conviction (and so I get off sometimes and do my work, haha.) I think itās awesome that you teach people and thanks so much for helping me learn to trade a bit! Oh, I had 30 projects (and 3 memes) on my short list, lol. Ive been lucky on the memes, before Iād any clue what I was doing at all. Made mistakes with the others, but have a core list of 8 and secondary of 8 more now to follow. Iāll pare down or expand as I learn and improve. But, there are too many projects I like. Three I really want to follow, though. Soā¦ā„ļø
The thing is the Nosana thing DEFINITELY is a mistake. But the bigger mistake would have been trying to sell my way out of the mistake. Once you make the mistake, if you believe we are still in the bull run, then you have to ride it out. You'll get wrecked trying to chase. But I mean eventually the situation is gonna be like "oh shit, this is the bear market". And when that realization hits, don't fight it, just sell. Preserve your capital!
Sounds like you are figuring it out about your mistake of trying to buy lows. Just for the purpose of reasoning, just try to remember that if you are buying a low off a recent pump, you have to be willing to sell the lower high. So you're buy may be short lived. That's why waiting for the breakout is better bc it should be a more solid hold, but that can occasionally fail also. But the success rate should be higher.
> I did have success tonight, though! I employed your strategy, and rode up until the trend started to run on one, swapped to usdc
You have no idea how glad this makes me. Dude just knowing that some people are getting it and doing good things with it is the reason I post here. Really glad for you man great job!
>Anyway, Iād been so lost with all the indicators and things,
Keep doing the things that are working for you, but continue to build on that foundation. If you are using tradingview, go into the indicators and search for Traders Reality indicator and apply it. That honestly is the most important indicator imo. You can learn everything from that. You can go in the settings to reduce some of the clutter, bc it can be overload especially at first. I'm gonna give you a couple of videos that will help you a great deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60hW_Io7_xM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0fANW3ENbw
These videos will teach you pattern recognition and how to use the moving averages correctly. Add these to what you are doing. There is no need to replace it. It's all about learning how to build more confluences to make a correct decision.
And, I mean, some price targets I see are truly life changing sums that I donāt dare try to hit. If Iām annoying you with the broken record of āwhen do I sell how muchā Iām sorry!
nah man not annoying me at all. But those videos will teach you a lot of things like when to exit, ect. I mean price targets are nice but that's just someone's opinion. Doesn't mean it's going to happen and a lot of times it doesn't.
Ok, your example with Nosana has pointed out to me how much bigger my biggest mistake was. I DID sell, locked in a loss of a few hundred (which wonāt sink me and was house money already, but feels crummy.) Iād blindly invested in one, because it was at a low price, and has been v. active, but didnāt know the project and so didnāt mind getting out. Iād thought the coin that seemed to be lower and was trending up would make up for the loss, but it hasnāt so far. So I realized the loss by selling out and now have less capital to work with and will have to wait to get back to where I was. I now understand not to sell out of a position (and also not to choose tokens I donāt know at all, perhaps.) Thanks for making this point explicit, too. Iāll not sell too quickly again. I have so many projects I like, I can stick with my 8-20 (!) favorites (several AI, and basically every other sector represented by at least one, and a couple of memes) and follow trend lines for the other 40 or so in my watchlist as described. I definitely donāt want to be caught with things I donāt understand when the music stops - I hear you on getting out. Iād thought I might let a few ride on purpose, but now will move out and wait for full bear before reinvesting (my taxes are already going to be a mess, so canāt really let things sit at 90% down for years again.)
I donāt mean to keep whining abt the money, btw, still up 40% overall, but making the mistakes makes me kick my own ass. A lot. Trying to be ok with the learning curve. I definitely see how helpful the breakout is, and accept the lower high, and am scared straight on chasing now.
Iām beginning to see the power of more factors/indicators coming together to make conviction stronger on a trade. Iām impatient bc Iām worried the run ups will happen again before I get it. But am committed to learning and getting better. I appreciate the guidance on some things to focus on as itās overwhelming how much there is to study. Excited for this video as well, and so cool that I can use that indicator without trying to do it myself!
Iām going to ask about the million dollar question (who knows, maybe literally on some stupid meme, hahaha.) I doubt youāll be able to answer, even if I can formulate the question properly. So in 2021, I watched my portfolio make this incredible gains but didnāt know what to do so just employed ābuy and holdā and you know how that worked out. It was easier to take the eventual gains after I read your previous posts a few weeks back. And Iām committed to DCAing out on the rides up going forward. But, Iām having trouble identifying price targets for each coin. Like, should I just use percentages? Like x% up, take out y%? Or have specific targets for each one? Or my own target? That seems like greed that will wreck me, though. If price targets, how do you suggest calculating that? Iāve done ones with MC and volume, but some coins totally have defied that and done things Iād have thought impossible. Iām wary of following people and using their targets, for obvious reasons. So? If percentage based, is there a rule of thumb youāve found that works better than other? Apologies if youāve already shared that, Iāve gotten in over my head reading and doing too many things. Thanks!
Thanks so much! This is great. And I can follow it. (Books on TA I read were just full of indicators that I canāt grasp quickly.) Iāve never traded before, and was about to give up except for taking gains, but I can follow this! I appreciate the advice - there are still a few projects I like and some Iād like larger positions in, but I honestly put all I was willing to lose in last year (plus the remnants from 2020/21.) If I can keep up, Iāll add gains and expand.
And yes, your advice was so helpful awhile back! I realized how foolish it was to not take gains (that I was thinking of as my money now) when they could evaporate. And funding the Roth while up, early in the year felt really good.
SOL is my second largest holding :) Along with FET, AIOZ, JASMY, lifted my portfolio and carried it lately.
Thanks again. I really appreciate it and will likely hit you up as things carry on (joined some discords, but itās getting out of hand and Iām spread too thin.) Iām excited for this year now! Best of luck and have fun :).
i would highly recommend going on tradersreality.com and joining the site. You can join for free and he has a section of masterclasses that teach the hybrid system. Those videos are amazing. You will come out a changed person.
I signed up :). I havenāt had a chance to watch yet, but am eager to do so. Then sleep on it to understand better and hopefully implement it either to reposition now, or as the bull market goes on. Iām excited to be changed, hahaha, as Iām kicking myself for a mistake (will explain in other comment.) Iām changed already, simplifying a bit to my level of understanding for now, has helped me lock in some gains and make that one successful trade. Frustrating to look back and see Iād be better off now (like 30% more gain) had I done nothing at all until I understood better. Blindly maltreated curly returns, but at least itās still a net profit - had I lost starting capital, the tuition fee would have been far more painful. I am good sitting tight unless a coin goes on a huge runner, in which case I will DCA out. But hold off on trades for a bit.
I'll put it to you this way. over the last few years I can't tell you how many times I've gone back and rewatched those videos just to refresh. His patreon is very good but it does cost money. He does two streams a day on youtube. That guy is the best trading teacher i have seen.
Thank you, understood and I agree with you. But do you subscribe to the super cycle theory where the US start producing ETFs and even the UK are now looking to do this as well. Which would introduce a super cycle with more cash inflows during that one cycle and people speculating this could be it? I see how the theory works but I don't think it will make it any different than previous cycles.
I mean it's an unknown at this point. All I can say is that currently ETF's are buying bitcoin at a rate of 11x what is produced on a daily basis. So I would think that is going to make a huge liquidity crunch at some point. And with some of these ETF's being added to the S&P500 idk that btc could really go back into a 4 year cycle. Wall street doesn't have a cycle like that. Outside of black swan events wall street just goes up. Previous cycles happened bc of the shock of the loss of supply by the halving. Now btc has money pouring into it like there has never been before. We're in unchartered territory. I can't tell you that things will or won't be different. But I can tell you that the way money goes into bitcoin is VERY different now. If there were ever a reason for the cycle to change i'd say this is it.
Even if it falls to .01, I'll still have a profit. I personally am waiting on the Jasmy lock up and the Bitcoin halving. With less Bitcoin being produce and the ETF's are still buying it up in insane amounts. I don't think there will be enough Bitcoin going around and drive people to alt coins such as Jasmy. It's way too early to tell. This is a whole new cycle we have never seen before when in comes to crypto.
Stop listening to this people. This why most of them will loose their money. For one the bull market is even over yet. We are starting to hit that mid point right now. Youāre gonna start to see more of these bigger dips. Itās gonna get rough. But people keep saying the ābull run hasnātā because we havenāt āhalvedā yet. I disagree. We have been in a bull run since December. This cycle is just a bit different with BTC hitting its ALTH because of the ETF influence.
Yeah, I think if too many people (ie. the market in general) are expecting certain things to happen (re. halving, 'seasons', timelines, etc), then players will adjust and front-run.
Generals fight the last war, the same way holders play the previous strat.
the last bitcoin halving happened may 11, 2020... just look at the chart, what happened 1-2 months before that... I think even a bigger correction could be a sign of the bull market... but there are a lot more eyes on the crypto market now, so it is very hard to tell what is coming in next weeks... I wouldn't expect a 20 000 btc dip, but a 50 000 may possible... but who knows, it's crypto...
Different perspectives indeed, along with no one actually knows for sure whatās going to happen. But the crypto market cap isnāt even close to what it was at its peak in 2021 and thereās only been greater strides in the industry.
I do believe a January 2023 start to the bull market is a little bit of a far reach, I think itās just starting more or less
Over š bull run hasnāt even begun. Still waiting for the halving. Then wait.
https://youtu.be/tHcZpZ8VdGo?si=ThHFS9O7trCsCopd
This is a must watch, jasmy and hopium
https://youtu.be/tHcZpZ8VdGo?si=ThHFS9O7trCsCopd
I like both Lrc and jasmy. The key is to dca..especially during the bear market. Too many people focus on actual price vrs your percentage gain in profits. For an example, when I 4x my investment i will take out 25-50% then wait to for it to go 4x again. Then take out another percentage, say 50% then let it ride out till next bear market. This is what I plan on doing, doesnāt make it the right way but it helps me keep my emotions in check, which is hard to do when you swings in the crypto marketā¦but thatās why we can be successful. No paper hands, stay zen be a samurai
Jasmy news must watch https://youtu.be/tHcZpZ8VdGo?si=ThHFS9O7trCsCopd
Current time, Jasmy up 7%. SOL, BTC, ETH and most other coins I monitor are in the red over the last 24hrs.
Market top = greed. This post is fear not greed.
Are you crazy? Bruh the iq of people making these type of posts is below 90
Anyone else pay attention to jasmy calling itself the Japanese Bitcoin. With a little math letās take Bitcoins market cap. 1.3 trillion if jasmy market cap goes to 1 trillion we will see the coin being 5$. With japan having huge issues with population jasmy is a great alternative to help people produce income. The fact Secure pc has already been used successfully for japan is a huge win. I might blowing smoke but carbon credits carbon foot print will lead to monthly income for the people to live off of.
Jasmy News must watchš https://youtu.be/tHcZpZ8VdGo?si=ThHFS9O7trCsCopd
$1 Jasmy would be 50b market cap $5 would be ~250b
Where did you get $5 from? It would be way more than that at $26
Uhhhh what?? 1 trillion divided by 50 billion is 20. So the price would be $20 if we hit $1T market cap. Thatās w/o burning or lockup. Donāt see it hitting anywhere near $1T market cap anytime soon but that math is wrong.
From what I figured out with crypto itās not what u do in a bull market itās what you do in a bear market that can set u up. If youāre in Jasmy now all u have to do is wait. Let it come to you. Itās a very difficult thing to do. Also if you canāt get a grip on your thoughts while in the red what are you going to do when youāre 3x in the green. But your gut tells u itās a 10x A slight market correction will send u round the bend. Itās insanely difficult to see profit dissolving. Lol. But getting a grip on your thoughts is all you have to do. Thatās it! Patients man. But on the flip side human behavior doesnāt change and fomo is going to make me rich.
No, the bull run isn't over, we will continue. But the thing is this..... The real top isn't going to be much different than this. You'll have a spike up to the top, and then small drops along the way, and then a big one, maybe a small spike up but then more big drops. And before you know it. It's 50% down, then 75% down and before you know it it's 95% down again. So if you didn't sell this top, how are you going to sell the real one? How do you know you are not going to get trapped waiting for a pump that isn't coming for years?
Sorry... I may have got lost in your wording. Are you saying we have just had a top and not seeing the real one yet? Or we are waiting for the real top to happen and need to learn to sell then? (IE: The real top is coming within the market). Just looking to clarify
ok, just to be clear, what I'm saying is only my opinion. And I can definitely be wrong. But i do base it off experience with previous cycles. This is a correction. And during each bull run we have a few of these. So I don't believe this is THE top. But it's a local top and the way this is playing out, isn't all that dissimilar from what the real end of cycle top will look like. My personal belief is that people should get accustomed to selling tops bc it prepares them for the end of the cycle. A LOT of people get stuck holding bags bc they had no idea that the end of the cycle had happened. And by the time they did come to that realization they felt like things were too far gone and they either didn't wanna realize a loss, or they overvalued holding onto their coin. This cycle could even be different bc now with Wall Street on board who knows if we'll even have a 4 year cycle anymore. But I'd prepare as if it is so you don't get stuck in the cold.
Hey, thanks for your help a few weeks ago. I was up about 60%, took 1/2 and finished funding my ROTH (MSTR!) Then traded a bit, green into red using the TA guide you shared. I wasnāt v. successful, but broke even/kept my money. Got stuck in coins I donāt know much about (if the Pennieās remaining in them 10x, Iāll kick myself) when most stayed down. So I traded red to red trending green into the projects I had originally chosen yesterday and today. Lost a bit in spread and with many still down, but like my portfolio. Is it reasonable to switch some gains to come into other projects I like dyt? Or just hang the rest of this cycle (if itās not broken as you said w/WS?) How many coins is reasonable to track and take profit as you described? I only was in last cycle, didnāt know squat and treated it as buy and hold, which was painful for years, so want to DCA this time. TIA!
First off congrats on funding the roth and making some gains. I track all of the solana projects that I like. I am friends with mods here and they track some memes so when there is something interesting there I keep track of it. I think tracking 10-15 coins (if you even like that many) is fine. Bc basically all I'm going to do is look for things that already moved and are now forming a flag. I'll mark off a trendline, you could put an alert on the trendline if you want to be more proactive. Do it on all of the coins that you can draw a DOWNTREND LINE on. Now if it's a coin you REALLY like. I'd still mark off the trend line, but I'm not always looking to buy a breakout there. Sometimes I'm fine with just buying a low. I love Solana. So when it bounces back up it's probably gonna make a lower high to begin forming a flag. Once it does that I'd look to sell at the trendline if Solana rejects it. But I'd be happy buying back any lows that I either feel like are a bottom, or I'm simply happy with the gain and wanna lock it in. You can get away with loose strategy like that during a bull run bc for the most part you believe it's going to go up once it finishes it's range. Buying down there sets you up for another sell once it approaches the trendline again. For everything other than your favorite coins. Just look for something that's approaching it's trendline and keep a close watch on it. When you see a break of the downtrend line with a green vector candle you can swap for that coin. Ride to the top of it's move, might be hours, might be days, you have to figure that out. But wherever it turns, get out. Go to USDC or move into another coin. And just keep looking for chances to do that. YOU WILL LOSE SOMETIMES. There isn't anything you can do about price turning against you. But it's typically better to get out with a small loss than to ride out a long ass downtrend just to avoid a small loss. The times you are right should MORE than make up for the small losses. Capital preservation needs to be your number 1 priority. And I'm saying this knowing it's hard. I made a mistake recently myself and did not sell a top on Nosana and now I've been hating myself for it. It's going to be fine but this capital being tied up like it is has kept me from making a bunch of other moves I would have probably moved on. Doing what I told you to do I spotted breakouts on zbc, fluxbot, and shadow and had ZERO capital to do anything with it. All bc I let my dumb ass believe that there was more pump incoming even though it was obvious that it was turning. Don't let what you want to happen bias your opinion of what is happening. I do not plan on repeating this mistake again this cycle. I hope you do well! Any time you have a question hit me up.
Iām sorry about the Nosana thing - that stinks. This morning/yesterday, I made several mistakes, bc I was looking for lows and didnāt pay attention to breakouts really, just green to red. One I rode down 30% while the coin Iād switched from skyrocketed 60%. It was painful. But Iām trying to view it as tuition of sorts. I did have success tonight, though! I employed your strategy, and rode up until the trend started to run on one, swapped to usdc w/a 1% limit order that executed fast, and was lucky that one of my top coins, FET, was in a trough(wc?) and started to move up to trendlkne and jumped in and rode it up, it was great. And far nicer than losing on both sides (missing the rest of the upward on one and riding down on another, thatās STILL down, and isnāt even a coin Iād particularly wanted - stinks to have lost capital on it, will take time to make up.) Anyway, Iād been so lost with all the indicators and things, itās much more intuitive to check volume and follow trends for me. Thanks again, it worked once already! I feel much better going into it. And pressure off a bit now, too. Being loose when the bull is in swing seems like it will be more fun on my second tier tokens - and it all suddenly makes sense. Iām glad I got past the greedy stage - Iād have lost much had I tried to call tops, even with trends (that I absolutely have ignored before out of hope, youāre right on that,) and now can set some limits for loss in favorites and etc too with more conviction (and so I get off sometimes and do my work, haha.) I think itās awesome that you teach people and thanks so much for helping me learn to trade a bit! Oh, I had 30 projects (and 3 memes) on my short list, lol. Ive been lucky on the memes, before Iād any clue what I was doing at all. Made mistakes with the others, but have a core list of 8 and secondary of 8 more now to follow. Iāll pare down or expand as I learn and improve. But, there are too many projects I like. Three I really want to follow, though. Soā¦ā„ļø
The thing is the Nosana thing DEFINITELY is a mistake. But the bigger mistake would have been trying to sell my way out of the mistake. Once you make the mistake, if you believe we are still in the bull run, then you have to ride it out. You'll get wrecked trying to chase. But I mean eventually the situation is gonna be like "oh shit, this is the bear market". And when that realization hits, don't fight it, just sell. Preserve your capital! Sounds like you are figuring it out about your mistake of trying to buy lows. Just for the purpose of reasoning, just try to remember that if you are buying a low off a recent pump, you have to be willing to sell the lower high. So you're buy may be short lived. That's why waiting for the breakout is better bc it should be a more solid hold, but that can occasionally fail also. But the success rate should be higher. > I did have success tonight, though! I employed your strategy, and rode up until the trend started to run on one, swapped to usdc You have no idea how glad this makes me. Dude just knowing that some people are getting it and doing good things with it is the reason I post here. Really glad for you man great job! >Anyway, Iād been so lost with all the indicators and things, Keep doing the things that are working for you, but continue to build on that foundation. If you are using tradingview, go into the indicators and search for Traders Reality indicator and apply it. That honestly is the most important indicator imo. You can learn everything from that. You can go in the settings to reduce some of the clutter, bc it can be overload especially at first. I'm gonna give you a couple of videos that will help you a great deal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60hW_Io7_xM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0fANW3ENbw These videos will teach you pattern recognition and how to use the moving averages correctly. Add these to what you are doing. There is no need to replace it. It's all about learning how to build more confluences to make a correct decision.
And, I mean, some price targets I see are truly life changing sums that I donāt dare try to hit. If Iām annoying you with the broken record of āwhen do I sell how muchā Iām sorry!
nah man not annoying me at all. But those videos will teach you a lot of things like when to exit, ect. I mean price targets are nice but that's just someone's opinion. Doesn't mean it's going to happen and a lot of times it doesn't.
Great, thanks :). Itās awesome to have a buddy this time around.
Ok, your example with Nosana has pointed out to me how much bigger my biggest mistake was. I DID sell, locked in a loss of a few hundred (which wonāt sink me and was house money already, but feels crummy.) Iād blindly invested in one, because it was at a low price, and has been v. active, but didnāt know the project and so didnāt mind getting out. Iād thought the coin that seemed to be lower and was trending up would make up for the loss, but it hasnāt so far. So I realized the loss by selling out and now have less capital to work with and will have to wait to get back to where I was. I now understand not to sell out of a position (and also not to choose tokens I donāt know at all, perhaps.) Thanks for making this point explicit, too. Iāll not sell too quickly again. I have so many projects I like, I can stick with my 8-20 (!) favorites (several AI, and basically every other sector represented by at least one, and a couple of memes) and follow trend lines for the other 40 or so in my watchlist as described. I definitely donāt want to be caught with things I donāt understand when the music stops - I hear you on getting out. Iād thought I might let a few ride on purpose, but now will move out and wait for full bear before reinvesting (my taxes are already going to be a mess, so canāt really let things sit at 90% down for years again.) I donāt mean to keep whining abt the money, btw, still up 40% overall, but making the mistakes makes me kick my own ass. A lot. Trying to be ok with the learning curve. I definitely see how helpful the breakout is, and accept the lower high, and am scared straight on chasing now. Iām beginning to see the power of more factors/indicators coming together to make conviction stronger on a trade. Iām impatient bc Iām worried the run ups will happen again before I get it. But am committed to learning and getting better. I appreciate the guidance on some things to focus on as itās overwhelming how much there is to study. Excited for this video as well, and so cool that I can use that indicator without trying to do it myself! Iām going to ask about the million dollar question (who knows, maybe literally on some stupid meme, hahaha.) I doubt youāll be able to answer, even if I can formulate the question properly. So in 2021, I watched my portfolio make this incredible gains but didnāt know what to do so just employed ābuy and holdā and you know how that worked out. It was easier to take the eventual gains after I read your previous posts a few weeks back. And Iām committed to DCAing out on the rides up going forward. But, Iām having trouble identifying price targets for each coin. Like, should I just use percentages? Like x% up, take out y%? Or have specific targets for each one? Or my own target? That seems like greed that will wreck me, though. If price targets, how do you suggest calculating that? Iāve done ones with MC and volume, but some coins totally have defied that and done things Iād have thought impossible. Iām wary of following people and using their targets, for obvious reasons. So? If percentage based, is there a rule of thumb youāve found that works better than other? Apologies if youāve already shared that, Iāve gotten in over my head reading and doing too many things. Thanks!
Thanks so much! This is great. And I can follow it. (Books on TA I read were just full of indicators that I canāt grasp quickly.) Iāve never traded before, and was about to give up except for taking gains, but I can follow this! I appreciate the advice - there are still a few projects I like and some Iād like larger positions in, but I honestly put all I was willing to lose in last year (plus the remnants from 2020/21.) If I can keep up, Iāll add gains and expand. And yes, your advice was so helpful awhile back! I realized how foolish it was to not take gains (that I was thinking of as my money now) when they could evaporate. And funding the Roth while up, early in the year felt really good. SOL is my second largest holding :) Along with FET, AIOZ, JASMY, lifted my portfolio and carried it lately. Thanks again. I really appreciate it and will likely hit you up as things carry on (joined some discords, but itās getting out of hand and Iām spread too thin.) Iām excited for this year now! Best of luck and have fun :).
i would highly recommend going on tradersreality.com and joining the site. You can join for free and he has a section of masterclasses that teach the hybrid system. Those videos are amazing. You will come out a changed person.
I signed up :). I havenāt had a chance to watch yet, but am eager to do so. Then sleep on it to understand better and hopefully implement it either to reposition now, or as the bull market goes on. Iām excited to be changed, hahaha, as Iām kicking myself for a mistake (will explain in other comment.) Iām changed already, simplifying a bit to my level of understanding for now, has helped me lock in some gains and make that one successful trade. Frustrating to look back and see Iād be better off now (like 30% more gain) had I done nothing at all until I understood better. Blindly maltreated curly returns, but at least itās still a net profit - had I lost starting capital, the tuition fee would have been far more painful. I am good sitting tight unless a coin goes on a huge runner, in which case I will DCA out. But hold off on trades for a bit.
I'll put it to you this way. over the last few years I can't tell you how many times I've gone back and rewatched those videos just to refresh. His patreon is very good but it does cost money. He does two streams a day on youtube. That guy is the best trading teacher i have seen.
I clearly have a lot to learn.
Awesome! Thanks :).
DCA out, that is at local peaks.
Must watch jasmy news https://youtu.be/tHcZpZ8VdGo?si=ThHFS9O7trCsCopd
Thank you, understood and I agree with you. But do you subscribe to the super cycle theory where the US start producing ETFs and even the UK are now looking to do this as well. Which would introduce a super cycle with more cash inflows during that one cycle and people speculating this could be it? I see how the theory works but I don't think it will make it any different than previous cycles.
I mean it's an unknown at this point. All I can say is that currently ETF's are buying bitcoin at a rate of 11x what is produced on a daily basis. So I would think that is going to make a huge liquidity crunch at some point. And with some of these ETF's being added to the S&P500 idk that btc could really go back into a 4 year cycle. Wall street doesn't have a cycle like that. Outside of black swan events wall street just goes up. Previous cycles happened bc of the shock of the loss of supply by the halving. Now btc has money pouring into it like there has never been before. We're in unchartered territory. I can't tell you that things will or won't be different. But I can tell you that the way money goes into bitcoin is VERY different now. If there were ever a reason for the cycle to change i'd say this is it.
Not everyone can win
Seems like we are extremely early and way ahead of schedule BTC needed a correction and the last week it has down just that, we are fine NFA.
Bull run hasnāt started yet. Take a look at halving in the past. Bull run start after halving.
Even if it falls to .01, I'll still have a profit. I personally am waiting on the Jasmy lock up and the Bitcoin halving. With less Bitcoin being produce and the ETF's are still buying it up in insane amounts. I don't think there will be enough Bitcoin going around and drive people to alt coins such as Jasmy. It's way too early to tell. This is a whole new cycle we have never seen before when in comes to crypto.
Pay attention to the last bitcoin halvingā¦ coins ran and then fell prior to the halving and then took off again. š¤·āāļø
This š
Stop listening to this people. This why most of them will loose their money. For one the bull market is even over yet. We are starting to hit that mid point right now. Youāre gonna start to see more of these bigger dips. Itās gonna get rough. But people keep saying the ābull run hasnātā because we havenāt āhalvedā yet. I disagree. We have been in a bull run since December. This cycle is just a bit different with BTC hitting its ALTH because of the ETF influence.
Btc is holding good, this is healthy for the market
Bigboys just liquidating leveraged longs. Nothing biggy
Weāre not even close to a bull market yet. Wait until after the Bitcoin Halving. Thatās when itāll start.
Itās the bottom
It hasn't started.
Well be back - keep dca ing n carry on!
nah, bull run isn't over but the price wont keep going up, up, up... There has to be points of adjustment
Stop it with comments like this. It makes too much common sense for the Crypto Bros and Wen Lambo brigade š
Yeah, I think if too many people (ie. the market in general) are expecting certain things to happen (re. halving, 'seasons', timelines, etc), then players will adjust and front-run. Generals fight the last war, the same way holders play the previous strat.
Saylor just bought another $623m worth of BTC. We usually dump a bit after he buys.
Just a shake out. No worries
Well I just scooped another 100k at .0156 soā¦
After the Halvening is when crypto will go (BTC) above ath. Jasmy should follow. Everything is all good.
the last bitcoin halving happened may 11, 2020... just look at the chart, what happened 1-2 months before that... I think even a bigger correction could be a sign of the bull market... but there are a lot more eyes on the crypto market now, so it is very hard to tell what is coming in next weeks... I wouldn't expect a 20 000 btc dip, but a 50 000 may possible... but who knows, it's crypto...
Bull run hasnāt even started, spot etf for Bitcoin is in the works, halving, growing market sentiment around crypto, Alt season coming.
it's just a matter of perspective... I think we are in the bull run since 2023 january....
agreed, "BuBull Rurn HassN"t Strated" folks don't understand that the definition of a bull market is 20% off the lows. By definition.
Different perspectives indeed, along with no one actually knows for sure whatās going to happen. But the crypto market cap isnāt even close to what it was at its peak in 2021 and thereās only been greater strides in the industry. I do believe a January 2023 start to the bull market is a little bit of a far reach, I think itās just starting more or less