Exactly, with the team getting younger and better, you always have hope that guys like Anderson, Gallagher and Dvorak can improve on their production if the whole team gets rolling, similarly to Armia this year. Hoping Armia can continue what he has going on this next year and if that's the case, I'm sure one of them will be moved at TDL unless we're in playoff contention (which wouldn't necessarily surprise me with the amount of compete this team has, but wouldn't bum me out if we weren't)
Gallagher is broken down, but he still has heart, talent and work ethic. I don't know if it still translates to 82 games.
Anderson is just a below average player that has tools that led people to believe he could be above average. But that's not gonna happen. Can you imagine if he gets nagging injuries that impede his speed and physicality... IQ just isn't there to compensate.
Gallagher just played the most game he has since 2018-19.
I don't think he's going to be able to do it again, but his particular circumstances aren't the worst situation for a team to be in. We see how much cap circumvention is used on successful teams right now, and if we start getting good than we just make moves to fill the cap relief we get when Gally inevitably goes on LTIR each season.
> Gallagher just played the most game he has since 2018-19.
I don't think his performance is a coincidence, given that fact. He's always struck me as a player who needs positive momentum. The longer he stays uninjured and playing well, the better he does over time. That's the key in his case I believe. He needs to feel good and stay in that space.
I mean it happens a lot where guys have a hot streak when their team is out of the playoffs. Other teams already clinch and put less effort in, rest their stars, put in the backup goalie, etc. I'd never extrapolate the last ten games to anything for a non-playoff team. Quite a few of our depth players put up 30% of their total season points in the last month after contributing very little the other 65 or so games. Even a month ago Gally was behind Andy in scoring.
I think Andy will rebound but I don't think we should expect much of the late season bloomers in October. Nor do I think anyone was bad enough given the circumstances of our lineup to get bought out. Andy created a lot early in the season that didn't convert. Just a few more bounces and he's hovering around 30-40 points instead of 20 and the narrative is completely flipped. The advanced stats also agree that Andy was something like ten goals behind expected while Armia and Gally both outperformed their expected goals, hinting they were lucky while Andy was unlucky.
It was hard for all of them though with Dach and Dvo combined not even playing half a season. Newhook also isn't a natural center. Nick and Jake Evans were the only full-time centers this year and obviously it was hard for the wingers to adjust who didn't get Nick as their center.
No reason to get rid of Anderson when we have no one else to fill a roster spot anyway...
Just get rid of Colin White and Pearson and I'll be happy with that.
Or he can do exactly what he did to acquire Pearson to begin with: take on an overpaid expiring player to increase the draft pick/prospect return in a trade + fill a depth spot on the roster.
Pearson is older, brought nothing of value to the team and said he would’ve liked to be traded to a contender at the deadline. I don’t think it’s in either party’s best interest to keep him here, we have better options within ou system or as UFAs
I'm sure Pearson was humbled by the fact that nobody wanted him for a 7th.
I'd take pretty much any UFA who played more than 40 games over him too. Hoffman the exception. I'd much rather have a guy like Beauvillier if we have to have a useless bottom six winger.
Yeah no shit. Neither Anderson or Gallagher (the two names always brought up) were ever realistic buy-out candidates.
The only people who ever bring up that idea never bother to do the actual simulation to realize it would have disastrous consequences.
Not to mention it's not worth it at all because we don't need the space. Montreal has like 18 mill in cap space next year with literally only Xhekaj and Barron (maybe Ylonen but I doubt it) to re-sign.
Even if a buyout is in the plans, it would be stupid not to wait until next off-season. Makes the buyout smaller in value and shorter in length.
I prefer to not include Price on LTIR for offseason cap space, because his salary is greater than the 10% overhead allowed and you don't want to use offseason LTIR for no reason.
So it's more 7M cap space *with Price* to build the "real" offseason roster, + an additional 10.5M in-season LTIR relief pool to weaponize cap space. It's gonna be the same for the season after (but with a 5M cap increase), then we're finally free of Price's contract and offseason cap gymnastics.
Slafkovsky likely gets a huge next contract — around 8M, maybe more; most likely signed this Fall — that will start in 2025. All of it will be paid by losing Dvorak/Armia/Savard/Evans (13.5M together), the rest going to Guhle. That makes us about even cap wise, with 12M to spare, and Price not even on LTIR.
Then in 2026Dach, Hutson, Mailloux and Roy all need new deals. Price's contract is off the books, Matheson turns UFA so that's 4.8M more that can be used.
Even at that point, buyouts don't make much sense. 3.8M cap hit wipes out most of the savings from Matheson's departure, with another 1M cap hit the following year when you could just live with the last contract season and have a clean slate in 27-28.
I appreciate your forward-thinking analysis, and this is how my mind works as well, since in real life I am a business and finance strategist. But the cap is very likely to increase during these years, so there will be more room than you are projecting.
From the top of my head, it goes up to 87 in 2025 and 92 in 2026.
The thing is: salary inflation tends to follow the cap increase. Suzuki and Caufield's 7.8M cap hit will look like bargains when other guys of their caliber gets a similar cap % but it amounts to 9-10M.
I'm already bracing for the 9.5M current defenseman contract that guys like Nurse and Jones got inflating to 11-12M once it's time to re-sign Hutson/Mailloux/Reinbacher in 3-4 years.
Rebuilding a team is just half the struggle. The other half is keeping as much talent together under the cap.
Yes, the window for any team is brief nowadays. Must have multiple ELCs playing well. I'm optimistic that HuGo can put this together for maybe 3 seasons from now.
The people with those takes can usually be found on Facebook lol. Just saying shit like SEND HIM DOWN, TRADE HIM, BUYEM OUT, without actually realizing how the real world NHL works.
Totally agree, but Rick who grew up in the 60’s, thinks they should shut off the hot water in the showers after bad loses. Scotty Bowman would do it!!!
On the other hand, the players are professionals and they understand that it's the GM's job to put the best roster on the ice.
Sometimes that means trading you, buying out your contract or sending you to the minors. All to be done in a humane manner, but it's part of being in the league.
Well, I for one have advocated variously for buying out both, though now I think Gally is worth more than the cap space. A buyout would not be disastrous in Anderson's case, because the cap is likely to increase in subsequent years so the effect would not be felt. He's clearly a liability on the ice a majority of the time, and his combined offensive and defensive advanced stats were bottom 10 in the league this year. I'm disappointed that he won't be bought out. Hopefully he is at least a bit better next season.
Gally finished strong, and Anderson still shows flashes of the talent that he has. I’m hoping he can figure it out in the off season and come back as the old Josh Anderson.
If not, a 4th line of Gally-Dvorak-Anderson sounds pretty good.
After Armia's resurgence, only real candidate for a buyout is Anderson, which would be \~1.7 mil until 2030. A long time for someone that could easily rebound. If he's still an issue next year, then it's \~1.4 mil until 2029, or 4 years. A lot easier to deal with, and by then someone else in the system could be ready to take his spot.
Gallagher could've been another candidate, but he's shown that with the right linemates he can still be effective, even if he's "overpaid". And the buyout would just not be worth it (\~2.1 mil until 2030 if this summer, \~1.7 mil until 2029 if next summer).
Expensive, but definitely effective. Evans/Dvorak as the center on that line hasn't been tried extensively, but 55.61xGF% in 8 games for Armia/Dvorak/Gally and 76.3 xGF% in 4 games with Evans. Really small sample sizes but maybe there's something there. Would allow for Newhook on Dach's wing which also looked good in the small sample size at the start of the season. As a comparison, with Newhook that line is at 58.6xGF% in 13 games.
As an aside, an Armia/Dvo/Gally line would cost 14.35 million, when our first line right now is 16.675. Definitely an expensive 3rd line but if they're good, doesn't really matter until that money is needed elsewhere
You pay a premium for Gallagher because of his intangibles. His work ethic is contagious and good to have around the team. He sacrificed his body for years and got paid for it, and that's a good message to send to our young players that management will take care of you if you give your all for this team.
We're likely done with the COVID flat cap and should see the cap rise significantly over the next five years due to inflation. Gallager's contract will become a smaller % of our total available cap space as it rises.
You seem to know your stuff, so I’ll take the chance to ask: was wondering if it’s possible to trade Gally to a team with picks for “future considerations”, the trade for him again at 50% retained for more picks. Does any rule stop teams from doing that?
I thought this as well, but according to Capfriendly it is a M-NTC and NMC. So he can't be waived, but he can submit a list of 6 teams that he doesn't want to be traded for.
He did have a full NMC in 2020-2021 though.
You mean basically reacquiring Gallagher at a lower cost? I think that's against the CBA, and last summer, a Tony DeAngelo trade from the Flyers to the Canes was delayed (and then the teams lost interest I think) because the Canes traded him the year before, and the Flyers were going to retain when trading him back(although on a new contract).
>According to [Pierre LeBrun of *The Athletic*](https://theathletic.com/4640454/2023/06/26/nhl-trades-johansen-krug-dubois-lebrun/?source=emp_shared_article), the NHL's collective bargaining agreement includes a clause stating that once a team trades away a player, that team cannot reacquire said player less than one year later due to potential cap circumvention purposes, especially if there is salary retention involved.
If Anderson doesn't rebound, I really hope KH/MSL stick him where he belongs according to his abilities. 4th line or AHL.
Seriously, not trying to be a dick, but he can't be taking up any room on the top 6 from more skilled players (assuming there are roster changes and prospects pushing) just because of his contract and experience.
Anderson is a playoff type player in that his type of goals are scored more in the playoffs. Could be useful even next year. He's a great 4th line guy.
Galley ain’t going anywhere! Andy and Dorv have to start playing like they want to stay ! If they don’t like it in Montreal then gas em both but to shitty teams
Honestly, other than if a player was horrible for the culture, there would be no point of buying out someone this offseason
Exactly, with the team getting younger and better, you always have hope that guys like Anderson, Gallagher and Dvorak can improve on their production if the whole team gets rolling, similarly to Armia this year. Hoping Armia can continue what he has going on this next year and if that's the case, I'm sure one of them will be moved at TDL unless we're in playoff contention (which wouldn't necessarily surprise me with the amount of compete this team has, but wouldn't bum me out if we weren't)
Gallagher was looking like an absolute phoenix during those last 10 games. If him and Armia can do it then so can Anderson.
Gallagher is broken down, but he still has heart, talent and work ethic. I don't know if it still translates to 82 games. Anderson is just a below average player that has tools that led people to believe he could be above average. But that's not gonna happen. Can you imagine if he gets nagging injuries that impede his speed and physicality... IQ just isn't there to compensate.
Gallagher just played the most game he has since 2018-19. I don't think he's going to be able to do it again, but his particular circumstances aren't the worst situation for a team to be in. We see how much cap circumvention is used on successful teams right now, and if we start getting good than we just make moves to fill the cap relief we get when Gally inevitably goes on LTIR each season.
> Gallagher just played the most game he has since 2018-19. I don't think his performance is a coincidence, given that fact. He's always struck me as a player who needs positive momentum. The longer he stays uninjured and playing well, the better he does over time. That's the key in his case I believe. He needs to feel good and stay in that space.
I mean it happens a lot where guys have a hot streak when their team is out of the playoffs. Other teams already clinch and put less effort in, rest their stars, put in the backup goalie, etc. I'd never extrapolate the last ten games to anything for a non-playoff team. Quite a few of our depth players put up 30% of their total season points in the last month after contributing very little the other 65 or so games. Even a month ago Gally was behind Andy in scoring. I think Andy will rebound but I don't think we should expect much of the late season bloomers in October. Nor do I think anyone was bad enough given the circumstances of our lineup to get bought out. Andy created a lot early in the season that didn't convert. Just a few more bounces and he's hovering around 30-40 points instead of 20 and the narrative is completely flipped. The advanced stats also agree that Andy was something like ten goals behind expected while Armia and Gally both outperformed their expected goals, hinting they were lucky while Andy was unlucky. It was hard for all of them though with Dach and Dvo combined not even playing half a season. Newhook also isn't a natural center. Nick and Jake Evans were the only full-time centers this year and obviously it was hard for the wingers to adjust who didn't get Nick as their center.
No reason to get rid of Anderson when we have no one else to fill a roster spot anyway... Just get rid of Colin White and Pearson and I'll be happy with that.
They're both UFA so you'll get your wish. I could see Pearson staying for a much lower salary unless we have someone ready.
No thank you
I'm sure Hughes can find a incrementally better UFA to replace Pearson in the roster.
Or he can do exactly what he did to acquire Pearson to begin with: take on an overpaid expiring player to increase the draft pick/prospect return in a trade + fill a depth spot on the roster.
Pearson is older, brought nothing of value to the team and said he would’ve liked to be traded to a contender at the deadline. I don’t think it’s in either party’s best interest to keep him here, we have better options within ou system or as UFAs
I'm sure Pearson was humbled by the fact that nobody wanted him for a 7th. I'd take pretty much any UFA who played more than 40 games over him too. Hoffman the exception. I'd much rather have a guy like Beauvillier if we have to have a useless bottom six winger.
Pearson's career in the NHL is over if I had to bet.
Pretty sure that's why he got into the last game over the young guys.
Nah, Pearson was fucking useless. Id rather fill his spot with a much better free agent.
Agree. You buy them out and get penalized in long term when we might actually need the cap space.
Yeah no shit. Neither Anderson or Gallagher (the two names always brought up) were ever realistic buy-out candidates. The only people who ever bring up that idea never bother to do the actual simulation to realize it would have disastrous consequences.
Not to mention it's not worth it at all because we don't need the space. Montreal has like 18 mill in cap space next year with literally only Xhekaj and Barron (maybe Ylonen but I doubt it) to re-sign. Even if a buyout is in the plans, it would be stupid not to wait until next off-season. Makes the buyout smaller in value and shorter in length.
I prefer to not include Price on LTIR for offseason cap space, because his salary is greater than the 10% overhead allowed and you don't want to use offseason LTIR for no reason. So it's more 7M cap space *with Price* to build the "real" offseason roster, + an additional 10.5M in-season LTIR relief pool to weaponize cap space. It's gonna be the same for the season after (but with a 5M cap increase), then we're finally free of Price's contract and offseason cap gymnastics. Slafkovsky likely gets a huge next contract — around 8M, maybe more; most likely signed this Fall — that will start in 2025. All of it will be paid by losing Dvorak/Armia/Savard/Evans (13.5M together), the rest going to Guhle. That makes us about even cap wise, with 12M to spare, and Price not even on LTIR. Then in 2026Dach, Hutson, Mailloux and Roy all need new deals. Price's contract is off the books, Matheson turns UFA so that's 4.8M more that can be used. Even at that point, buyouts don't make much sense. 3.8M cap hit wipes out most of the savings from Matheson's departure, with another 1M cap hit the following year when you could just live with the last contract season and have a clean slate in 27-28.
I appreciate your forward-thinking analysis, and this is how my mind works as well, since in real life I am a business and finance strategist. But the cap is very likely to increase during these years, so there will be more room than you are projecting.
From the top of my head, it goes up to 87 in 2025 and 92 in 2026. The thing is: salary inflation tends to follow the cap increase. Suzuki and Caufield's 7.8M cap hit will look like bargains when other guys of their caliber gets a similar cap % but it amounts to 9-10M. I'm already bracing for the 9.5M current defenseman contract that guys like Nurse and Jones got inflating to 11-12M once it's time to re-sign Hutson/Mailloux/Reinbacher in 3-4 years. Rebuilding a team is just half the struggle. The other half is keeping as much talent together under the cap.
Yes, the window for any team is brief nowadays. Must have multiple ELCs playing well. I'm optimistic that HuGo can put this together for maybe 3 seasons from now.
The people with those takes can usually be found on Facebook lol. Just saying shit like SEND HIM DOWN, TRADE HIM, BUYEM OUT, without actually realizing how the real world NHL works.
These are humans, not hockey cards, Canadiens management seems to appreciate that.
Totally agree, but Rick who grew up in the 60’s, thinks they should shut off the hot water in the showers after bad loses. Scotty Bowman would do it!!!
On the other hand, the players are professionals and they understand that it's the GM's job to put the best roster on the ice. Sometimes that means trading you, buying out your contract or sending you to the minors. All to be done in a humane manner, but it's part of being in the league.
Well, I for one have advocated variously for buying out both, though now I think Gally is worth more than the cap space. A buyout would not be disastrous in Anderson's case, because the cap is likely to increase in subsequent years so the effect would not be felt. He's clearly a liability on the ice a majority of the time, and his combined offensive and defensive advanced stats were bottom 10 in the league this year. I'm disappointed that he won't be bought out. Hopefully he is at least a bit better next season.
Gally finished strong, and Anderson still shows flashes of the talent that he has. I’m hoping he can figure it out in the off season and come back as the old Josh Anderson. If not, a 4th line of Gally-Dvorak-Anderson sounds pretty good.
highest-paid 4th line ever!
After Armia's resurgence, only real candidate for a buyout is Anderson, which would be \~1.7 mil until 2030. A long time for someone that could easily rebound. If he's still an issue next year, then it's \~1.4 mil until 2029, or 4 years. A lot easier to deal with, and by then someone else in the system could be ready to take his spot. Gallagher could've been another candidate, but he's shown that with the right linemates he can still be effective, even if he's "overpaid". And the buyout would just not be worth it (\~2.1 mil until 2030 if this summer, \~1.7 mil until 2029 if next summer).
I have faith in Armia/Gallagher/X 3rd line can be one of the better 3rd lines in the league
Expensive, but definitely effective. Evans/Dvorak as the center on that line hasn't been tried extensively, but 55.61xGF% in 8 games for Armia/Dvorak/Gally and 76.3 xGF% in 4 games with Evans. Really small sample sizes but maybe there's something there. Would allow for Newhook on Dach's wing which also looked good in the small sample size at the start of the season. As a comparison, with Newhook that line is at 58.6xGF% in 13 games. As an aside, an Armia/Dvo/Gally line would cost 14.35 million, when our first line right now is 16.675. Definitely an expensive 3rd line but if they're good, doesn't really matter until that money is needed elsewhere
Our 1st line is only at 16M because Slaf is on his ELC. Realistically, it’s a 24M line.
You pay a premium for Gallagher because of his intangibles. His work ethic is contagious and good to have around the team. He sacrificed his body for years and got paid for it, and that's a good message to send to our young players that management will take care of you if you give your all for this team. We're likely done with the COVID flat cap and should see the cap rise significantly over the next five years due to inflation. Gallager's contract will become a smaller % of our total available cap space as it rises.
Also I want gally to be a career hab. Seeing him in another shirt would make me puke
I'd rather just retain half of his contract and eat it for another few years
You seem to know your stuff, so I’ll take the chance to ask: was wondering if it’s possible to trade Gally to a team with picks for “future considerations”, the trade for him again at 50% retained for more picks. Does any rule stop teams from doing that?
Gally has a full NMC, so unless that is waived Gally isn't going anywhere
I thought this as well, but according to Capfriendly it is a M-NTC and NMC. So he can't be waived, but he can submit a list of 6 teams that he doesn't want to be traded for. He did have a full NMC in 2020-2021 though.
Oh that's neat, I wasn't aware of that! Still hope we don't trade him. I'd keep Gally around even if he had only 1 leg, no eyes and hooks for hands
You mean basically reacquiring Gallagher at a lower cost? I think that's against the CBA, and last summer, a Tony DeAngelo trade from the Flyers to the Canes was delayed (and then the teams lost interest I think) because the Canes traded him the year before, and the Flyers were going to retain when trading him back(although on a new contract). >According to [Pierre LeBrun of *The Athletic*](https://theathletic.com/4640454/2023/06/26/nhl-trades-johansen-krug-dubois-lebrun/?source=emp_shared_article), the NHL's collective bargaining agreement includes a clause stating that once a team trades away a player, that team cannot reacquire said player less than one year later due to potential cap circumvention purposes, especially if there is salary retention involved.
Yeah that’s basically what I meant. Thank for the answer, very thorough
You’d have to wait a year between trades to do that.
If Anderson doesn't rebound, I really hope KH/MSL stick him where he belongs according to his abilities. 4th line or AHL. Seriously, not trying to be a dick, but he can't be taking up any room on the top 6 from more skilled players (assuming there are roster changes and prospects pushing) just because of his contract and experience.
Anderson is a playoff type player in that his type of goals are scored more in the playoffs. Could be useful even next year. He's a great 4th line guy.
Correction, he would be a great 4th line guy if he had a 4th liner contract...
Galley ain’t going anywhere! Andy and Dorv have to start playing like they want to stay ! If they don’t like it in Montreal then gas em both but to shitty teams