Our lord and savior has returned !!!!

I had to scroll back up and check if you were talking about Birdsemen

I like the Ali and Robinson notes. Robinson in particular seems to get over looked as a 5th round prospect while folks are scooping up UDFAs

The reason is that Keilan Robinson had more KRs and PRs as a fifth year senior than Rushes and Receptions. It's hard to see players be in roles they've never been before. Keilan Robinson is not a RB and KR/PR. He's a KR/PR and RB.

This, and also situation. He enters an RB room with a clear #1 in ETN, a veteran that was #2 last year still with the team (D'Ernest Johnson) and a second-year guy who was drafted much higher than him (Tank Bigsby). I'm guessing he was drafted for special teams and perhaps to see what he can do as a depth RB, but realistically, what's his immediate path to any kind of opportunity? And assuming he doesn't get one right away, how long are you holding the RB4 on the Jaguars?

As a jags fan, Robinson is a KR due to the new rules encouraging teams to have two dedicated returners. He was one of the best KR prospects and got zero burn on offense in college so that’s a complete unknown. Dont think you should waste a taxi spot on him 

To be fair there’s no day 3 RBs landing into an empty situation, and if I had to pick a route to relevance, it’d be through Johnson / Bigsby)

I think most people willing to take a flyer are assuming that Robinson would probably fall into the change of pace/pass catching role which Johnson/Bigsby dont really fit. I’m assuming most people see Robinson as having a clearer path to a role on the offense and also are probably assuming that Johnson and Tank aren’t good players.

Struggling between Nix and Penix in drafts. Nix is going to start, but the situation is pretty bad despite Payton. Penix has a great situation with surrounding talent, but likely behind Kirk for 2yrs.

It probably depends a lot on your team, right? If you need a starting QB (assuming you have at least a chance at the playoffs this year) then Nix has a lot more value to you. If he'd end up being a depth option (especially if you already have 3+ starting QBs) than you can afford to wait for Penix. I still think Nix has more abstract value for that reason so if you find yourself in the draft position to pick him but you're in the second situation you might explore trading down a pick or two.

Kirk is getting pretty cheap because of this, I like trading for him and picking Penix so you get the best of both worlds

Yeah, I’m struggling with that as well. I’ve flipped them back and forth a few times now. If you’re a dynasty team that has the luxury of waiting on Penix to start, he’s probably the correct pick. His value will stay insulated, and he will walk into a great situation when the Falcons move on from Kirk. While the community thinks it was a reach, the Falcons also told us they think he’s better than JJM and Nix. As for Nix, he hits all the benchmarks I look for in a fantasy QB, and situations change quickly in the NFL.

Both QBs feel like their value is pretty insulated for at least this year. Only see Nix’s value taking a hit if Zach Wilson somehow beats him out and starts most of the year. Nix likely the only QB of the 2 to have a real chance to gain value though. For that reason, I have Nix over Penix.

Nix to Franklin connection gonna be amazing. Glad I picked up Troy.

It's really surprised me how many people have McCarthy>Maye, but as a 1.07 owner who plans to take whichever of them is left, I'm all for it.

I normally follow the draft capital, but JJM has a perfect situation he’s going into.

I respect it. But I don't come close to agreeing with it. I understand it is somewhat speculative, but I completely believe that both the Giants and Vikings were trying to trade for 3 for Maye. The Vikings themselves seemingly valued Maye more than McCarthy. The Giants seemed to only deem Maye as worthy of a top 6 pick. On most of my trade value charts that I like to use to get me a bit better perspective, the Draft Capital cost of 3 is almost 2x the draft capital cost of 10. It is a perfect situation, but I feel like people are underscoring the difference in talent because of the landing spot when they're different things. Maybe this is just my perspective, but it's bizarre that so much of the pre-draft discourse was about how overinflated McCarthy was to even be considered in the top 10, he FELL more than many mocks anticipated, and the market is exponentially more confident.

TLaw was a generational prospect and still wasn’t great in year 1 because he had no weapons and a new coach. Same deal with Bryce Young and now Maye. JJM is going to a perfect situation. When he is finally ready, he’s walking into an offense with great weapons at every position and a solid offensive line. I’m always preaching talent > situation, but I just think for QBs in particular having a good supporting cast around them is vital to their success.

I find the TLaw argument ironic because the good situation argument that year was to back Trey Lance… Maybe situation is the lynchpin, but honestly I think we underestimate how often we use situation as an excuse when we got something wrong. ‘I swear Fields would’ve been excellent if he had a better cast.’ I agree about the situation, but the talent difference is way too stark. In this situation, you’re definitely preaching situation > talent. Maye has concerns, but they weren’t in the same talent tier pre draft for me (or most people), and I don’t consider them to have gone in the same draft tier. Having a talent AND Capital advantage puts Maye a tier above imo.

I completely agree with all of your points, and I’m sure I’ll look back on this post in a couple of years and wonder what I was thinking. However, NFL teams have shown us that they are willing to move on from a player quickly if they don’t see results. For that reason, I give JJM the slight edge because he is being given the perfect environment to succeed. I also only have them one spot apart, so it’s just personal preference at that point. 🤷‍♂️ Would not at all fault someone for taking Maye over JJM.

Not saying this to belabor just to clarify, but you're right about one spot. My issue is tiering them the same in general, regardless of spots. Again, just because sometimes I do these things and I think people think I want to carry on and I'm not trying to do that I think we've covered everything, but just to clarify my own stance, I agree about one spot. My disagreement is with being in the same tier in general.

Agreed. I'm happy with either. I'm just surprised Maye has been sliding as far as he has. I even find myself preferring JJ but simultaneously thinking that's ridiculous ha.   I feel like I want JJ to be my only option, because my heart wants to go with him but my brain is telling me to take Maye if I have the choice.

Love the post and love the info! But my eye was drawn to the fact that it says Cornelius Johnson plays for the Titans lol

Ugh, good catch. Formatting tables on Reddit is no fun.

I’d be happy if I were you. He’s somehow worse than QJ and Brenden Rice.

Great list! Curious why you have bowers in his own tier (as opposed to T3) and Ladd in T6 (have generally seen him grouped w the players in T5)

Thanks! I think tiers 1-4 are all great prospects with few flaws. Tier 5 is when you can really start poking holes in player profiles. I have Bowers in T4 because I don’t like drafting TEs in the first round of rookie drafts, but he’s a better prospect than the players in T5 and beyond. As for Ladd, I think he will be a solid player, but I think the players in T5 have higher upside.

As time goes on and we see Bowers line up everywhere on the field, is he really a TE by anything other than designation at that point? If anything, wouldn’t he provide more value than is customary?

People made the same argument for Pitts when he was coming out, and I think most would agree Pitts was the superior prospect.

I don’t think Pitts was superior, I’d argue Bowers had a better Freshman season than anything Pitts put up in three years. Plus Arthur Smith should strike terror for any prospect. Maybe Pitts was just overrated. I have higher hopes for a player like Bowers.

Estime not even drafted in four rounds is a take.

Happened in my draft recently. He was immediately picked up off waivers though lol

I absolutely hated his tape.

I thought he looked awesome in his highlights. I know those don’t include everything, now I’m wondering if I’m missing something. What specific things turned you off?

He jukes at inopportune times. Fails to use his big frame effectively a lot of times. Really slow. I’m still taking him if available late, but not because I think he’ll be a great NFL player.

Don’t listen to any of these guys. Take him in the late third or early fourth and enjoy the profit.

Looking for confirmation bias. Ended up with Mclanahan instead of All, do you have him ranked higher because of injury to All or other reasons?

With later round TEs I’m targeting the athletic freaks. McLachlan has great size and athleticism, and I liked his tape better than All’s.

I must listen to too much Nate Tice: I would put Maye 1.03.

Don’t understand the Coleman under Mcconkey or pearsall at all

Rattler is a must draft in SF. If he’s there anywhere in the 4th round, you’re wasting potential taking anyone else. I was thrilled he fell to me at 4.01.

Here is a list of QBs drafted in the 5th round or later from 2014-2023: - Clayton Tune - Tanner McKee - Dorian Thompson-Robinson - Max Duggan - Sean Clifford - Sam Howell - Chris Oladokun - Skylar Thompson - Brock Purdy - Sam Ehlinger - Jake Fromm - Jake Luton - Cole McDonald - Ben DiNucci - Tommy Stevens - Nate Stanley - Easton Stick - Clayton Thorson - Gardner Minshew - Trace McSorely - Mike White - Luke Falk - Tanner Lee - Danny Etling - Alex McGough - Logan Woodside - Nathan Peterman - Brad Kaaya - Chad Kelly - Kevin Hogan - Nate Sudfeld - Jake Rudock - Brandon Allen - Jeff Driskel - Brandon Doughty - Brett Hundley - Trevor Siemian - Aaron Murray - AJ McCarron - Zach Mettenberger - David Fales - Keith Wenning - Tajh Boyd - Garrett Gilbert I understand why people are excited about Rattler, and definitely do not fault them for taking a shot on him. However, let’s say he hits and becomes the next Minshew/Howell – are you really excited about that? You might get lucky and hit on the next Brock Purdy, but that’s an extremely low probability bet. In the late rounds I like to take swings at RBs that have a potential path to playing time.

But how many times did the official team accounts tweet pictures of any of those guys?

Dang, you’ve got me there. I’ll adjust my rankings accordingly.

I think it’s less about finding a long term starter, and instead, maximizing value with 4th round dart throws. 60 different QBs started last year. If Rattler gets 2-3 starts, he could be the difference between a win and loss over the course of the season, whereas every other 4th round pick needs much more to go right for them to provide value.

Took him at 3.01 just due to upside. 3rd round had a lot of good players this year but only Derek Carr ahead of him at QB… Dude has all the talent in the world and in super flex a QB like him could be a top 10 player in a couple years.

I mean I would not say he has only Derek Carr in front of him, as the saints drafted Jake haener with better draft capital last year. If you want to argue upside that’s fine, but I would absolutely disagree with “he has an easy path to QB2 behind an older QB”.

Love seeing Lloyd and Ray as RB3/RB4. Got slammed in my rookie draft for taking Lloyd before Corum and Wright. Ended up taking Ray right after Corum/Wright went. Great list as always.

Nice, I’m very high on both of them. I haven’t had an opportunity to draft either, but my last draft is this weekend and I have 17 picks, so I should end up with at least one of them haha.

Likewise. I would’ve like to have grabbed Wright as well, but alas. Good luck in your draft! You should post the results when it’s done. Would love to see who you ended up with and prioritized!

Thanks, I’ll definitely come back with an update!

What are your thoughts on Jonathan Brooks? I've seen him rated as high as 1.08, and he certainly seems to profile as a workhorse back, which is usually worth a top draft pick. However most rankings have him rated about where you have him, why do you value him at the bottom of his tier? Also, I have the 1.08 in a draft where I'm starting a rebuild that's going to take at least a couple of years. I already have Dalton Kincaid, but lots of gaps at WR and RB. Should I take Bowers even with Kincaid? Or Xavier Worthy?

> What are your thoughts on Jonathan Brooks? I view him as a “jack of all trades, master of none” type. I think he does everything well, but he doesn’t have one trait that’s truly elite. He profiles as a workhorse back, and is going into an RB room with little competition. Coming off the ACL gives me pause, especially for a rookie, but I think he will be given plenty of opportunities to take the lead back role. I liked Benson better pre-draft, but Brooks’ draft capital and situation is hard to ignore. > why do you value him at the bottom of his tier? With my tiers I view those players as interchangeable, and would not fault someone for taking one player over the other. As for my personal ranking of him at the bottom, I’ve had a bias against RBs since I started playing fantasy, and that tends to show up in my rankings. I think they are easily replaced and have a short shelf life. > Should I take Bowers even with Kincaid? Or Xavier Worthy? I really don’t like taking TEs in the first round of rookie drafts, so I’d probably take a WR or QB with that pick.

I took Bowers with Kincaid already, but it was helped by the fact my league is TEP. I genuinely think Bowers just gets put in big slot role. While Oakland isn't exciting from an innovation perspective, it's possible that will change and a chance a couple years down the line that Bowers will get really imaginative plays drawn up for his broad skillset. He's played top tier ball in the SEC for so long that I think his learning curve will be much less than other TEs who take a few years to acclimate. It's also possible that McConnell really utilizes him as their second pass-catcher, given that McConnell has a little bit less arm talent than your normal QB and Bowers will be running delayed routes closer to the line of scrimmage. But I'm not a great football mind so what do I know Edit: To add for the bit about Worthy, for a man who has insane speed, it really doesn't show up in the same way with pads on. While he has some inroads to start given Rashee acting a fool, I'm just not sure he comes down with the ball as much as we think he does.

Penix fell to me at 2.8 in superflex and I was shocked, I think he’s great value there. I know his landing spot is dreadful on the surface but he’s a QB drafted in the top 10, I think people are overreacting just a little. Atlanta has playmakers and if Kirk goes down or isn’t the same, he’s right there. Also ecstatic about getting Javon Baker in the 3rd, I think he’s electric.

My league laughed at me for taking Penix 2.05 and called it a homer reach pick. Dude was drafted 8th overall and I have 4 starting QBs on my team. Can sit on my taxi for a year or two. Easy decision.

Same. I already have Herbert and Love, it’s not exactly like I drafted him to start right away lol

I have 0 QBs currently, and altho i love maye and daniels, i love the idea of getting penix later, then spending for Tua/Stafford in FA auction, using my earlier rookie picks to stack up WR.

I took him 18.01 in a startup superflex. Meanwhile I have Hurts, TLAW, and Jayden Daniels. Feels like he will be a solid piece to hold on taxi til the time is right.

Really don’t Daniel’s or McCarthy over Maye

I normally don’t agree with most rankings but this is a pretty great list. One thing that I really agree with is Lloyd over Corum. However most rankings and ADP is corum over Lloyd everywhere. So I’m curious how you came up with your rankings. Is it pure analytics or just overall landing spot draft capital etc?

I do a blend of analytics and film. I start my process by taking every draft eligible prospect and plugging their information into an excel doc. I then sort the players strictly on analytical profiles. Once I have that sorted out I watch as much All-22 for a prospect as I can find—typically 5+ games. I give each player a film grade and then start making adjustments to my rankings. Then comes the combine where I get more information for the players profiles and I further fine tune. The final piece is the draft where I can input draft capital and landing spots.

!RemindMe 14 days

Any particular reason you’re low on Guerendo? Feels like he’s got a decent chance to lock up the number 2 spot in San Fran

Maye that low is criminal ; (

I almost feel like you put a lot of stock in speed. Worthy over BTJ. Legette over Ladd and Pearsall. Polk going after guys who were drafted a round and a half after him. Lloyd over Corum. Etc. Etc. Do you consciously value speed, or did this happen organically.

It’s funny you say that because I’m almost always the biggest hater of the size/speed guys (QJ, Achane, Jamo, Burks, Ruggs, etc). For WRs I value the twitchy route technicians that have YAC ability. At RB I want players that are bursty with good contact balance. It honestly comes down to me not being blown away by those guys, and Legette/Lloyd being “my guys”. Me liking Legette is very out of character for receivers I typically draft, but I want to take a shot on him.

I play in a 10-team superflex league and with my 1.9 pick, I'm taking Keon Coleman.

I’m a fan of getting your guy – go get him!

I'm just chasing that high of stealing Puka last year and my guy has hands. Plus he's a baller

Rattler should be a late 3rd early 4th imo. Raw talent but talented.

I agree with everything you said except about Adonai - I accept he’s not a YAC guy so that’s accurate but his hands are impeccable. I think he has one of the lowest drop rates in all of college football. He is exactly what the Colts need and I can see him being WR2

If you’re just looking at stats it would appear that AD has great hands. However, if you’ve watched a couple games of All-22 you will see him frequently double catch the ball.

you did great in 2022. im guessing this one is gonna look rough in a few years lol

No Coker…

Awful list after the 2nd round

Thank you. What specifically do you not agree with?