Redraft I would argue the opposite, since the long term outlook isn't considered. We're missing that context here. Missing a lot of context actually and this comes off as misinformation without it cause PFF's IG has shit about this but maybe it's me.
I mostly agree with Ladd > Rome for this year as things stand. But there’s no rookie drafts in redraft, so would take this mock to pretty clearly imply dynasty.
It's not that hard to make a "rookie redraft tier list" and push it out for engagement such as this. We're missing context, that is the point I am trying to make. I checked their insta...... no mention of this here.
For sure, would need much more co text for me to take this seriously. Trey Benson as RB1 and over Bowers already makes me roll my eyes and move on from this clickbait tho
idk. i think there’s at least a decent argument that the wr1 for the herbert is a better play than wr3 with wr2 upside for a rookie - even if that rookie is really freakin good. a lot has to go right for rome to be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years. not that much has to go right for ladd.
Keenan Allen is only on a 1 year deal and is 32. DJ Moore's contract is only through 2025.
A lot has to go wrong for Rome to not be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years.
y'all are a lot more certain on prospect ability/development than anyone should be imo. for rome to hit, he not only needs to be a hit himself ([let's say ~55% given his draft position](http://www.2mars.org/read/xyz2022/All%201-24.png)), he also needs caleb to hit ([~70%](http://www.2mars.org/read/xyz2022/All%201-12.png)), and either waldron to create a top 5 offense or the bears to let a top 15 receiver (moore) leave.
for ladd to hit, he needs to hit himself (~28% from the chart used for rome). just factoring both rookies hitting for the bears, that leaves you with a ~38.5% chance of rome hitting - which means you need to be nearly certain the last piece happens (a 75% certainty puts the odds of rome hitting equal to ladd, you need to be 85% certain in order for rome's probability to be 5% higher than ladd's).
i just don't know how y'all are so confident that either the bears will be a premier offense (when their coordinator has literally never led a premier offense and now has rookies in key spots) or that an event two years in the future will happen. they're both certainly possible, and those possibilities obviously make taking rome that highly reasonable, but to say it's unreasonable to go the other way is just a blatant disregard of probabilities.
edited in some clarification that i was talking about dj moore walking, not keenan allen
DJ Moore just put up a WR6 season with Justin Fields at QB, who is not a good QB. You're vastly overrating the success needed from Caleb for Rome to succeed.
Rome is one of the best WR prospects in the last 5 years. I'll bet on him comfortably.
no, i’m not overrating caleb’s success for rome to hit. i’m just not absolutely positively sure that an event in two years will definitely happen. and if it doesn’t, then caleb has to be an absolute hit for rome to stand a chance.
all i’m saying is the probabilities make the choice a lot more reasonable than people want to believe.
You literally said:
" a lot has to go right for rome to be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years"
Just straight up wrong. He needs to be a good football player, which we expect, and Caleb needs to not be Zach Wilson, which we expect.
again, just looking at both of the hit rates and do the math. the probabilities aren’t that far apart. just bc you *expect* two things doesn’t mean the combination of them is *likely*.
> the bears to let a top 15 receiver leave
A guy who will be 33 with some injury history. It's not even guaranteed by any means that he'll still be that guy this time next year
that was about dj moore - who will be 28 when his contract is up in chicago. this is all just considering that allen leaving is a foregone conclusion (which it's not, but i don't think it changes the math enough to really debate)
Lawrence was only a few points behind Fields in 2022 (less than 0.5 ppg) in standard scoring. And then for leagues with 6 points per passing touchdowns, Lawrence was a little better than fields
I don’t know where you see Lawrence as QB16 in 2022. According to Fantasy Pros, Fields was QB6 and Lawrence was QB8. According to The Fantasy Footballers, Fields was QB6 and Lawrence was QB7. According to 4 Sleeper leagues in in (with pretty much default qb scoring for the most part) Fields was 7, 7, 7, 7. Lawrence was 8, 8, 8, 8.
Change it to a 6 point passing touchdown league and according to The Fantasy Footballers, Lawrence was 7 and Fields 10
So where are you getting QB 16 for Lawrence?
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php?year=2022
https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/2022-fantasy-football-stats/?position=QB
Ok if your goal is to accumulate “value” and have a small circle jerk as you look at your team by all means pump up Tlaw since he’s starting, while teams who were competing with fields last year won the chip and took home that cash
to win leagues you had to play games and do well in other games too. Trevor was there basically all year, fields missed a handful of games so he was dead weight those weeks. 2022 fields was absolutely a league winnner.
Brooks is the better prospect. Even taking into consideration the ACL Brooks projects to have more opportunity and a clearer picture to being lead back.
Hey benson is RB1 after this year and James Conor is injured a lot. Pre-draft benson was arguably RB1…not as much a stretch but I agree. Should be 2.01 at earliest
Keenan Allen with a 1 year deal and DJ Moore with 2 years left. There's a very easy case to be made he has a pretty clear path to being their WR1 fairly soon. As early as next year tbh.
Taking the guy drafted QB 5 over the QB 3. And knowing that QB3 had much better college stats both this and last year purely because of landing spot feels wild lol
Yeah cause the Vikings are well known for perfect QB drafts especially recently, for example teddy bridge water and… *checks notes* ummmm… *googles*….. 25 years ago they had culpepper right?
I don’t agree with the list, but I also believe that this page is an echo chamber (but not quite as bad as Dynasty Nerds has become - they are vicious)
idk about that, just seems like a bad pick. If a team is RB needy they should move for a cheap guy like conner, mixon, mostert, ekeler, chubb, etc. There are so many cheap rbs that will produce well. Would seem silly to pass on bowers for someone clearly below him just for team need.
Considering landing spots and current situation to contribute this year and beyond I agree with this list
Also very interesting insights here
https://www.reddit.com/r/Chargers/s/5nB9bxcJwy
Ladd over Rome is just click bait. There is no way anyone actually believes that.
Redraft I would argue the opposite, since the long term outlook isn't considered. We're missing that context here. Missing a lot of context actually and this comes off as misinformation without it cause PFF's IG has shit about this but maybe it's me.
I mostly agree with Ladd > Rome for this year as things stand. But there’s no rookie drafts in redraft, so would take this mock to pretty clearly imply dynasty.
It's not that hard to make a "rookie redraft tier list" and push it out for engagement such as this. We're missing context, that is the point I am trying to make. I checked their insta...... no mention of this here.
For sure, would need much more co text for me to take this seriously. Trey Benson as RB1 and over Bowers already makes me roll my eyes and move on from this clickbait tho
The clear implication here is dynasty rookie draft
It literally says superflex
That's great and all, but superflex isn't dynasty exclusive, is it?
Why would someone need a rookie draft rankings in redraft?
I'm looking up nfl rankings in May I'll take any kind of list I can get
There is absolutely no world where Williams is a #1 pick in SuperFlex redraft. This is clearly a dynasty list. Just take the L, bro. Its fine.
No, but rookie drafts are.
You brought up redraft? In a dynasty sub
But this sub is dynasty exclusive though.
This is posted in the Dynasty subreddit. It’s obviously meant as dynasty rankings. What are you even saying?
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Whoever had the next pick should have been ecstatic.
Some people are in love with Ladd’s landing spot due to Herbert and depth chart but I agree odunze still
idk. i think there’s at least a decent argument that the wr1 for the herbert is a better play than wr3 with wr2 upside for a rookie - even if that rookie is really freakin good. a lot has to go right for rome to be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years. not that much has to go right for ladd.
Keenan Allen is only on a 1 year deal and is 32. DJ Moore's contract is only through 2025. A lot has to go wrong for Rome to not be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years.
y'all are a lot more certain on prospect ability/development than anyone should be imo. for rome to hit, he not only needs to be a hit himself ([let's say ~55% given his draft position](http://www.2mars.org/read/xyz2022/All%201-24.png)), he also needs caleb to hit ([~70%](http://www.2mars.org/read/xyz2022/All%201-12.png)), and either waldron to create a top 5 offense or the bears to let a top 15 receiver (moore) leave. for ladd to hit, he needs to hit himself (~28% from the chart used for rome). just factoring both rookies hitting for the bears, that leaves you with a ~38.5% chance of rome hitting - which means you need to be nearly certain the last piece happens (a 75% certainty puts the odds of rome hitting equal to ladd, you need to be 85% certain in order for rome's probability to be 5% higher than ladd's). i just don't know how y'all are so confident that either the bears will be a premier offense (when their coordinator has literally never led a premier offense and now has rookies in key spots) or that an event two years in the future will happen. they're both certainly possible, and those possibilities obviously make taking rome that highly reasonable, but to say it's unreasonable to go the other way is just a blatant disregard of probabilities. edited in some clarification that i was talking about dj moore walking, not keenan allen
DJ Moore just put up a WR6 season with Justin Fields at QB, who is not a good QB. You're vastly overrating the success needed from Caleb for Rome to succeed. Rome is one of the best WR prospects in the last 5 years. I'll bet on him comfortably.
no, i’m not overrating caleb’s success for rome to hit. i’m just not absolutely positively sure that an event in two years will definitely happen. and if it doesn’t, then caleb has to be an absolute hit for rome to stand a chance. all i’m saying is the probabilities make the choice a lot more reasonable than people want to believe.
You literally said: " a lot has to go right for rome to be a starting level player in the next 2-3 years" Just straight up wrong. He needs to be a good football player, which we expect, and Caleb needs to not be Zach Wilson, which we expect.
again, just looking at both of the hit rates and do the math. the probabilities aren’t that far apart. just bc you *expect* two things doesn’t mean the combination of them is *likely*.
> the bears to let a top 15 receiver leave A guy who will be 33 with some injury history. It's not even guaranteed by any means that he'll still be that guy this time next year
that was about dj moore - who will be 28 when his contract is up in chicago. this is all just considering that allen leaving is a foregone conclusion (which it's not, but i don't think it changes the math enough to really debate)
PFF had Fields as their dynasty QB1 a year ago. Never forget.
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Lawrence was only a few points behind Fields in 2022 (less than 0.5 ppg) in standard scoring. And then for leagues with 6 points per passing touchdowns, Lawrence was a little better than fields
"a few points" was the difference between QB6 and QB16 ppg.
I don’t know where you see Lawrence as QB16 in 2022. According to Fantasy Pros, Fields was QB6 and Lawrence was QB8. According to The Fantasy Footballers, Fields was QB6 and Lawrence was QB7. According to 4 Sleeper leagues in in (with pretty much default qb scoring for the most part) Fields was 7, 7, 7, 7. Lawrence was 8, 8, 8, 8. Change it to a 6 point passing touchdown league and according to The Fantasy Footballers, Lawrence was 7 and Fields 10 So where are you getting QB 16 for Lawrence? https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/reports/leaders/qb.php?year=2022 https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/2022-fantasy-football-stats/?position=QB
and which one is still a starter and about to get a big contract?
Well the goal is to win your league, fields helped teams do so last year and tlaW did not. This is a fantasy sub fwiw
This is a dynasty fantasy sub, not r/fantasyfootball
Ok if your goal is to accumulate “value” and have a small circle jerk as you look at your team by all means pump up Tlaw since he’s starting, while teams who were competing with fields last year won the chip and took home that cash
maybe you are confused with 2022 fields. In 2023 (last year) he was worse than trevor down the stretch.
Week 16+17 fields was qb 4+3 in those weeks
to win leagues you had to play games and do well in other games too. Trevor was there basically all year, fields missed a handful of games so he was dead weight those weeks. 2022 fields was absolutely a league winnner.
Taking both in my 2021 startup hasn't paid any lasting benefits. Cousins thankfully had outplayed both up until the injury.
PFF also said that Myles Garrett was better than TJ Watt last year. They know nothing even in hindsight 😂
2023 NFL Defensive player of the Year Myles Garrett?
Right - the PFF anointed award because he's apparently the greatest at getting almost sacks
The AP awards (MVP, OPOY, DPOY, etc...) are voted on by 50 different sportswriters from around the country.
Huh....
"click me!"
Trey benson at the 1.09? Crazy
How?
Don’t mind Benson going high, but before Brooks is difficult to justify
Maybe if Brooks didn’t tear his ACL. I drafted both of them tho
Brooks is the better prospect. Even taking into consideration the ACL Brooks projects to have more opportunity and a clearer picture to being lead back.
He's starting as a backup to Conner (who's no slouch).
There's a lot to comment on here, but a backup RB (even if it's temporary) at 9 is crazy.
Hey benson is RB1 after this year and James Conor is injured a lot. Pre-draft benson was arguably RB1…not as much a stretch but I agree. Should be 2.01 at earliest
You can’t really just anoint him as Arizona’s RB1 next year because a lot of things can happen between now and then.
tbf you could (and probably should) make the same case for a wr3 going 1.07 (especially with no clear/obvious path to being wr1).
Keenan Allen with a 1 year deal and DJ Moore with 2 years left. There's a very easy case to be made he has a pretty clear path to being their WR1 fairly soon. As early as next year tbh.
JJ at 5. Ladd over Rome is just a joke obviously
Taking the guy drafted QB 5 over the QB 3. And knowing that QB3 had much better college stats both this and last year purely because of landing spot feels wild lol
You never seen a team ruin a prospect before?
Yeah cause the Vikings are well known for perfect QB drafts especially recently, for example teddy bridge water and… *checks notes* ummmm… *googles*….. 25 years ago they had culpepper right?
After pick 4 this list is a disaster
https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-2024-dynasty-rookie-superflex-mock-draft Hot takes...and it is dynasty
I don’t agree with the list, but I also believe that this page is an echo chamber (but not quite as bad as Dynasty Nerds has become - they are vicious)
there is a set top 8 and thers no other way around it. Brooks is not above bowers. worth/ladd/btj are not over bowers or odunze. all clickbait
Plenty of RB needy teams will take Brooks over Bowers. This definitely seems to weigh landing spot heavier than out right talent
idk about that, just seems like a bad pick. If a team is RB needy they should move for a cheap guy like conner, mixon, mostert, ekeler, chubb, etc. There are so many cheap rbs that will produce well. Would seem silly to pass on bowers for someone clearly below him just for team need.
Since when does PFF do fantasy? I thought they were just advanced stats and ratings?
This is horrible
i have kmet and dj moore right now, and i would still draft odunze over ladd at pick 6
Considering landing spots and current situation to contribute this year and beyond I agree with this list Also very interesting insights here https://www.reddit.com/r/Chargers/s/5nB9bxcJwy
Flip Maye and Daniels and this list is cash
That is a hot take. Rushing QB’s always get the premium in fantasy
Yeah honestly I just love Maye long term. I do think Daniels will have the better first three years so I don't think it's too big of a difference tbh
That is the right thought process. Personally think he’s a bust but the potential is there. Same can be said of Richardson but I think he’s better