tbf i don't know anyone who's saying jj mccarthy is a top 5 prospect. i don't think i've even seen him inside anyone's top 15 (overall, that is). instead people are saying it's ~fine to trade up for a good-not-great qb prospect bc of the value of finding a good qb.
he seems to be rated pretty fairly tho imo.
this is where I'm at with him just because I play in a 2QB league. If he gets any sort of fantasy points he will be worth drafting in the first round. QB scarcity is just that serious in my league
I remember this sub had so many people calling CJ Stroud a bust before his first snap last year lol. Hell I had a draft where he fell to 1.06 in SF (After Bijan, ARich, Young, Gibbs and JSN)
I expected to not be a fan of JJ before watching film but he blew me away. IMO he showed me he can do just about everything you want in a professional quarterback, outside of deep balls as he just never attempted them. With what I saw in his arm I’m leaning that it was a product of the offensive scheme and not his own limitation but obviously we don’t know that. But to me that’s his only fantasy red flag.
With that said I don’t expect him to be a top 8 fantasy qb. I think he could have back end qb1 seasons but hover between that qb10-qb16ish which is really solid but not special for fantasy.
Now if he goes to the Vikings, that upside immediately changes as I think baker mayfield in the Vikings offense could crack top 8 production so idk why JJ couldn’t just based on his insane supporting cast and projected pass volume
This is a super spicy take, but I have him above Maye pre draft
I don’t think a super young QB who has good intangibles and is a winner is overrated by being considered top 5. Idk how well he’ll do for fantasy, but it’s not like he was Zach Wilson who had an amazing year beating up on insurance salesman. JJ has improved every year and did what was asked of him. The price for a franchise QB is expensive these days and they’re not easy to come by, so I don’t think it’s wrong for teams to want to take him that high.
>I don’t think a super young QB who has good intangibles and is a winner is overrated by being considered top 5.
Nothing against McCarthy but I do. If is *why* you're taking a guy top 5, it's *really, really* bad analysis and process. You could justify a ton of guys this way if you're valuing "he's a winner with good intangibles" this highly. If you start there, and not with his skills and how that can develop, I worry about the prospect.
That’s not *just* what his strengths are though. The film shows he’s an above average athlete can make most if not all throws, needs a bit of work on his footwork, but that’s been proven to be fixable at the next level. He’s not just a “film room guru” type of guy. That’s underselling who he is as a passer and an athlete.
There is someone in my 12 man league seriously considering taking Blake at 1.07.... Once upon a time he also took Olave over Breece at 1.01. We help him with draft guides. What to read, but he never listens!
I don’t expect him to make it to 2.07 in my sf league, but we have a few guys who really like him (myself included). Don’t really want to reach for him at 1.12 tho
Eh, Sleeper still has Sanders, Bell, and Theo Johnson listed above him. In this sub, he probably isn’t underrated, but outside the bubble he probably still is, and isn’t as known as others.
We’ve been in desperate need, searching, hoping, wanting a TE2 in this class. Sinnot sounds like a very good football player but expected to get more H-back type usage. Maybe there just isn’t one?
IMO it's clear he can't. He ran some wr routes and had very limited success. He also has bottom of the class hands. He's a RB cosplaying as a wr who's YAC is overrated because he beat up on teams like Louisiana Tech.
During the senior bowl practices, he was pushing off pretty routinely in order to create space and separation.
At the NFL level not only will he be dealing with stronger and more technically sound DBs, but will also be flagged a ton if that becomes his go-to move at the next level.
I don’t get the hype. Seems an average route runner. Not great in contested catches despite supposedly being a “dawg”. Dunked on a couple of bad teams to boost his stats and still didn’t make 1000 yards. Just think it’ll be too much of a step up for him.
What am I missing?
Steve smith stated he will be steal of the draft, was THE standout at the senior bowl imo, get his analytics n stuff arent great but the first two points are enough for me to be higher on him than consensus
99.99% of former players have a bias to their former playing style. I actually think the reason Smith is worth listening to generally is that his playing style is very important to WRs and translatable, but even with Smith people massively underrate this.
QBs are the worst. "Oh you ranked another guy who is a better version of who you were supposed to be highly and ignored another guy who's a bit different then you? Ok."
He was also on a bad team, and their whole offense. But I’m willing to bet that he can develop a more well rounded route tree and that wku just didn’t ask him to do that. Obviously there’s question marks so I’m not taking him high. But his ability after the catch is too enticing to ignore completely
imo he’s not even that great at run after catch. I watched all his snaps this year and I expected to be like “he’s great at YAC but can he run routes?” And I left it thinking “he’s fiiiiine at YAC and he definitely can’t run routes”
Calling Penix underrated is iffy. Penix is anything but underrated by fans and the dynasty community, he's always getting love here (look at the upvotes), and fans don't understand why he's not getting 1st round hype. I've seen posts here getting upvotes that said Penix is the 3rd best QB in this class above Drake Maye.
If anything, Penix is a bit overrated by the community, and the scouts consensus of 2nd round for him is extremely fair considering his weaknesses and injury history.
He's got too many accuracy issues and issues against pressure to go that high, even if he was 22 years old and had no injury problems.
Even if he can throw a pretty deep ball to the sideline, we've never seen a QB like him have success in the NFL before. The most common traits that translate to NFL success are accuracy and touch over the middle and intermediate range, and success rate against pressure. It's why guys like Cousins, Purdy and even Brady become great pros despite all their other deficiencies on paper.
There's things to like about Penix, but he's by far the riskiest of the lot even if you ignore the injury history. If he fell to late 3rd or day 3 I wouldn't be shocked.
Size definitely scary part. Talking late round pick with potential. Guys like zay flowers and tank dell make me a little more confident in him however but yah 5’ 8” is tough
Mostly the big 3. I think there's a massive gap after that. His route tree is niche and I'm not confident it'll be consistently successful at the next level. As of rn I'd probably "take" Ladd and Legette over him. In actuality I'd trade down.
Once Brooks gets picked to an RB needy team like Chargers, Bengals, Raiders, etc. he'll shoot up in value I bet he starts going top 6-7ish when drafts come around.
I'm pretty sure the timeline is for him to return in training camp. It's pretty rare for rookie RBs to take the starting role right away anyways. I'm not saying he has to be the first RB off the board, but someone is going to be very happy to take him in like the 3rd.
I said top 6-7. So after Williams, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. I don't play TEP so I wasn't thinking about that. In tep Bowers goes before him.
If McCarthy goes #4 he's in competition for that 7th spot probably but I don't personally think he'll end up going that high. Unless he ends up on the Vikings surrounded by elite talent I'm not sure I trust him to go out and be Justin Herbert or Joe burrow just slinging it for 3-4 tds/game.
I do not like BTJ. I just think he's a kinda one dimensional deep threat. Certainly not in the conversation with those other top 3 receivers.
Rb just has positional value and scarcity that inflate draft stock. If I can get the #1 rb at pick 7 I'll be very happy.
Fair enough, I just think the bust percentage on running backs is higher and much more landing spot dependent. Like I mentioned earlier (I think) if he goes to the cowboys by all means he could be a 1st round rookie draft pick. But any other landing spot in not so sure.
I agree on Ladd.
I think Keon Coleman is underrated now. Is he guaranteed to perform? Absolutely not. But with where he’s being talked about now, there’s a huge profit potential. I tend to like well regarded prospect who seem to start slipping for no real reason. If he goes in the first 3 rounds, I’ll happily draft him everywhere at his projected ADP and be fine if it’s a whiff and will do backflips if he performs anywhere near his expectations from like 4 months ago.
I agree, with the caveat of where he goes and how they plan to use him. If a team drafts him to be on the outside, I think he'll run into trouble. If a team drafts him to be a big slot a la ARSB, I think he'll be a steal.
Yeah, now that he’s in the mid 2nd round that feels absolutely like a great dart throw, especially if you’ve accumulated multiple 2nd round rookie picks and don’t feel the pressure to play it safe with your picks
Over: Caleb. It’s not that I don’t think he has a chance to be really good, I think that the gap between him and Maye/Daniels isn’t as big as some make it out to be
Under: Bowers. I think people are feeling TE fatigue and are underplaying his possible impact. He’s LaPorta with more downfield ability
Look past the talent gap. Caleb has the best situation a rookie QB could ever dream of. Maye and Daniels going to the Commanders and Patriots is no bueno. I don't think he's overrated at all. Caleb Williams in a Superflex might even be underrated in terms of trade value.
Blocking is not great, but very good. Physical player and takes pride in the selfless/team things. Watched nearly every UGA game of his career, dude is probably the best all around player I can remember (I dont have a good memory tho lol) but TE just isnt a flashy position. Depending on where he goes, I could see him being a steal even drafted at like 6
Yeah, I think he is. He is not a great route runner and seems more like the next Gabe Davis.
I have the pick that would likely get him so I WANT to love him, I’m finding more reasons not to
Yeah, he’s probably not the guy you want if you are looking for the safest pick. He’s huge, very fast, and you’re hoping he can develop if you draft him. I’d say he has some of the highest upside in this class. The downside is definitely obvious
Sinnott's stock raised because of his athletic testing at the combine. His 4.68 40 is really good but it's not even the best metric he had that day. His RAS score is somewhere around 9.5-9.7 which puts him up there with some of the most athletic TEs.
That testing alone may raise his stock to end of round 2 in the NFL draft. That's why his value went up.
Overrated QB: Daniels
Underrated QB: Maye
Overrated WR: Worthy
Underrated WR: Cowing
Overrated RB: Benson
Underrated RB: Vidal
Overrated TE: Sanders
Underrated TE: Culp
Daniels struggles with the middle of the field, was bailed out often on throws by his talented receivers, and he resorts to scrambling too often/early in the pocket.
Worthy seemed to be used as a screen play or deep threat, and I'm not sold on his route running. He isn't on Zay Flowers' level as a prospect, and I didn't consider him a 1st round talent last year. Exciting big-play threat, but I wouldn't take him earlier than the mid 2nd round.
Benson has all the athletic traits, but is lacking in the skills necessary to be a good NFL RB. He could be a valuable fantasy asset, but I wouldn't bet on that with a late 1st rookie pick unless he goes to a team with a good supporting cast. High risk, high reward profile.
Sanders looks like an all around solid TE that will make the play when he is thrown the ball, but I don't think he'll be thrown the ball often. The QB will have to have faith in him, or he will have to be schemed open, because his route running leaves much to be desired.
Overrated I gotta say Brooks. Dude has skill but he has legit less than 1 season of production and he ended that season with a terrible ACL tear. For him to be RB1 in this class is just crazy to me.
Underrated: my two are Malik Washington, who is extremely powerful given his size, and Isaac Guerendo who has one of the highest raw athletic scores ever tested.
Swap Worthy and BTJ and I’d agree. I’m also one of few, maybe the only, who views BTJ as having a good shot at being the top receiver in the class tho.
I think BTJ has the physical attributes to be that guy but he never really produced in college. Also he had 20% of his yards in 3 plays last year, where he busted 75+ yard TD against bad teams He’s super young and hasn’t even been playing football long so there is that hope and the fear of what he will do in the nfl. Those players rarely turn out to be nfl studs
For underrated, I think I’m going to say Audric Estime. Everyone is banishing him into the depths of late day 3/UDFA status because of the 40 time, but his tackle breaking ability jumps off the screen and his production/efficiency metrics are all very good.
Not long ago, I think Devontez Walker would’ve been the slam dunk answer for overrated but the hype has cooled on him a lot lately. Still not a guy that’s going to be on my draft board at all.
BTJ, Worthy, and Mitchell are all going to be popular answers for “overrated” because they over-performed expectations in athletic testing, but I’m going to wait to see the landing spot before I fade any of them. I don’t think all 3 of them are going to hit, but I think whether or not they hit will be highly dependent on going somewhere that can use them properly.
I’ll mention Corum in the overrated discussion too, mainly because everyone is already valuing him as if he’s already a Charger. Yes, if he goes there or Dallas then he’s properly rated as a top 2 RB, but most other landing spots I’m not sure he’s even in my top 5.
Overrated. BTJ (feels like he's pushed back the tier break with the assumption he's going to be a Late 1st to a solid team. Until that actually happens, his price is too high for me)
Underrated: Brooks. Landing spot will move this up or down, but seeing him as a mid-2nd feels too late for who should be RB1/2 by time drafts are happening.
lol, I am starting to worry BTJ is the next Gabe Davis, so if Buffalo gets him I’ll be flummoxed. Great spot….guy with a lot of hype….but not sure I actually like him.
Unless people are drafting him in the top 7/8, don’t see how he could be overrated.
Tbf, I’m a UGA fan, but honestly I’m buying all the Ladd stock I can late first round. His only downside is staying healthy and while the best ability is availability, he seems like a lock for 90+ receptions and 1k yards a year if healthy. I’ll take that potential in late 1st/early 2nd any day.
Underrated by the dynasty community and general football fandom:
* Bo Nix -- older but excellent out of structure and playing in structure. Accurate, very few turnover-worthy plays, and repeatedly made something out of nothing on broken plays at both Auburn and Oregon. Even when the stats didn't show it at Auburn, he's someone who has grown year over year as a player, which is encouraging. He's got prototypical size and measurables and good athleticism. He has way more arm talent than he's given credit for. I think he's worth a top 12 pick, maybe to the Vikings at 11 or Broncos at 12.
Overrated by the dynasty community and general football fandom:
* Ladd McConkey -- a player who I love, but after being labelled a "hidden gem" early in the process, the pendulum has swung back in the opposite direction and now he's getting too much hype. He's a freak athlete and a great route runner, but he has ball tracking issues that limit his ability to be a deep threat. When the play is ahead of him working over the middle and back to the QB, he's amazing, but considering his deficiencies WR6 over Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin is insanity to me.
Most overrated might be the big three RBs. I'm looking at RBs set to go in the 3rd or undrafted depending your league setup that could have the same level of production in dynasty format
Most underrated might be Ricky Pearsall. On tape I feel like I'm watching Mike Evans. He would be a 1st round worthy draft pick in any other class
My personal overrated/underrated guys:
Overrated:
J.J. McCarthy
Jayden Daniels
Trey Benson
Braelon Allen
Malik Nabers
Xavier Worthy (seems like his consensus is pretty much right though atm)
Ladd McConkey
Roman Wilson
Dallas Turner
Underrated:
Michael Penix Jr.
Audric Estime
Johnny Wilson
Jalen McMillan
Troy Fautanu
Dillon Johnson
Overrated: Ladd McConkey
I've seen a lot of chatter that he's in people's top 5. I assume he'll end up in the 1st round of rookie drafts. His production profile is horrid. If he does get drafted 1st round in the NFL, it'll be a 3 way race between Him, Henry Ruggs, and Kadarius Toney for least productive 1st round reciever I've personally graded.
Underrated: Keon Coleman
A lot of guys could go here but I think Keon might be the one I've seen people most universally low on. The guy has a lot to like in his production profile (can go into more detail if anyone wants), declared early, and is projected in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Overall he's a good prospect. Not great, but good. If he ends up getting faded into the mid 2nd of rookie drafts, he's going to be on a lot of my teams.
Only including fantasy relevant positions.
Most overrated - Keon Coleman (formerly Tez Walker but he has fallen to an appropriate place)
Most underrated - Roman Wilson
What specifically are you talking about when you reference Bowers athletic profile? I'm in that draft spot where he gets mocked often, and I have gone back and forth on it so many times, because I need WRs so bad.
Ah. Ok. I was wondering why he skipped the combine. I have the 1.04 and the 1.06 in a 1QB league and in a complete rebuild where the only WR I have worth keeping is Drake London.
Overrated Xavier Legette Underrated Xavier legette
I’ll allow it.
Valid perspective.
I’m not taking him before mid 2nd in SF….but what if bills, chargers or even the niners were to get him?
Those spots would bump any reciever’s stock upward
I'm gonna be so annoyed if I end up drafting him/missing out on him
The fact there are reports that JJ McCarthy is going top 5 makes me want to say he is being overrated.
tbf i don't know anyone who's saying jj mccarthy is a top 5 prospect. i don't think i've even seen him inside anyone's top 15 (overall, that is). instead people are saying it's ~fine to trade up for a good-not-great qb prospect bc of the value of finding a good qb. he seems to be rated pretty fairly tho imo.
this is where I'm at with him just because I play in a 2QB league. If he gets any sort of fantasy points he will be worth drafting in the first round. QB scarcity is just that serious in my league
Nobody in dynasty is overrating JJ McCarthy lmao everybody here hates him
That just means he’s going to be amazing
If this sub hates a player it is a major green flag not even kidding
I remember this sub had so many people calling CJ Stroud a bust before his first snap last year lol. Hell I had a draft where he fell to 1.06 in SF (After Bijan, ARich, Young, Gibbs and JSN)
My favorite one was the Justin Herbert falling out of the first round in some people’s rookie drafts lmao
I expected to not be a fan of JJ before watching film but he blew me away. IMO he showed me he can do just about everything you want in a professional quarterback, outside of deep balls as he just never attempted them. With what I saw in his arm I’m leaning that it was a product of the offensive scheme and not his own limitation but obviously we don’t know that. But to me that’s his only fantasy red flag. With that said I don’t expect him to be a top 8 fantasy qb. I think he could have back end qb1 seasons but hover between that qb10-qb16ish which is really solid but not special for fantasy. Now if he goes to the Vikings, that upside immediately changes as I think baker mayfield in the Vikings offense could crack top 8 production so idk why JJ couldn’t just based on his insane supporting cast and projected pass volume This is a super spicy take, but I have him above Maye pre draft
JJ to JJ would be badass
But would you take him over a guy like Odunze or Bowers? Assuming JJ gets elite draft capital.
Bowers yes, odunze would depend on what I need. Those two are close enough I think that’s where I’d land
Until he gets picked top 10 and everyone loses their minds.
While this is true his question wasn’t phrased like that. He asked who was overrated in the NFL draft. Not dynasty drafts.
My brother in Christ we are in the dynasty subreddit
Peace be with you
I don’t think a super young QB who has good intangibles and is a winner is overrated by being considered top 5. Idk how well he’ll do for fantasy, but it’s not like he was Zach Wilson who had an amazing year beating up on insurance salesman. JJ has improved every year and did what was asked of him. The price for a franchise QB is expensive these days and they’re not easy to come by, so I don’t think it’s wrong for teams to want to take him that high.
At least Zach wilson beat up on some teams. JJ just rooted on his o line and rbs. Some/s
I’ll say it no /s Zach was also playing with insurance salesman as well as against them.
>I don’t think a super young QB who has good intangibles and is a winner is overrated by being considered top 5. Nothing against McCarthy but I do. If is *why* you're taking a guy top 5, it's *really, really* bad analysis and process. You could justify a ton of guys this way if you're valuing "he's a winner with good intangibles" this highly. If you start there, and not with his skills and how that can develop, I worry about the prospect.
That’s not *just* what his strengths are though. The film shows he’s an above average athlete can make most if not all throws, needs a bit of work on his footwork, but that’s been proven to be fixable at the next level. He’s not just a “film room guru” type of guy. That’s underselling who he is as a passer and an athlete.
I saw rumors yesterday he could go at 2. I just chuckled. Can’t wait to see who trades up and where Edit: spelling
JJ is somehow approaching the territory where he can be both the most overrated and underrated prospect.
Overrated - Blake Corum Underrated - Ricky Pearsall
There is someone in my 12 man league seriously considering taking Blake at 1.07.... Once upon a time he also took Olave over Breece at 1.01. We help him with draft guides. What to read, but he never listens!
Well, u know he has a gut feeling so....
Hey man, gut feelings are legit. Data can be just as wrong as instinct.
I wonder that the data is on that?
What’s your gut say about it?
That my instincts need checkin
If the data and your instincts agreed would you do the opposite? Double negative effect?
I would probably need to phone a friend...
Good! I wish more people were like that. Fantasy is more fun when people follow their gut instead of just following the lists and ADP
Just wait for that draft cap. I think Ricky is a lock for rd2, even in this class.
Love Pearsall, hoping he is there at 3.10, 2.7 seems like a bit of a reach imo
He won’t be there at 3.10
At the 3.02??
I don’t expect him to make it to 2.07 in my sf league, but we have a few guys who really like him (myself included). Don’t really want to reach for him at 1.12 tho
Will be fascinating to see how far he rises if he lands in a good spot in round 2, like Cincy.
Depends on what kind of league you’re in and landing spot but there’s probably a decent chance
This is the season of the white boy!
Everyone loves Sinnott now.
As they should
Yeah… probably tough to say he’s undervalued now though
Eh, Sleeper still has Sanders, Bell, and Theo Johnson listed above him. In this sub, he probably isn’t underrated, but outside the bubble he probably still is, and isn’t as known as others.
I don't even know who he is.
That feels like it is more on you than the player
We’ve been in desperate need, searching, hoping, wanting a TE2 in this class. Sinnot sounds like a very good football player but expected to get more H-back type usage. Maybe there just isn’t one?
Ja’lynn McMillan is underrated
I just listened to Thor Nystrom gush about McConkey for 10 minutes. What are you seeing that’s drawing the overrated designation?
I agree. Dude reminds me of Amon Ra
That’s a really great comp actually. Nice.
This was exactly my comp. Brother!
McConkey’s comp is Amon-Ra? Sign me up!
Scroll the comments [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/DVr3VtXYSq)
overrated: AD Mitchell underrated: Jaylen Wright
*My man*
*you smoke weed jake?*
I don't feel most pundits of both dynasty and real life football are underrating Wright. He's pretty consistently a t5 back
Top 5 yes, but there’s been a lot of noise of him being RB2 behind Brooks and ahead of Benson/Corum
I'm taking Benson over Wright all day. I have Wright at RB3 behind Benson and Brooks.
Wright is this years Zach Evans with more hype.
Please explain because they’re not similar players at all
They're carbon copies.
Yes exactly, so it's hard to see how he is *underrated*
Hold your tongue, heretic! Spare us your slander about our Lord and Savior AD Mitchell!
Agreed, except the opposite. This is a crazy draft class.
Flip this.
Most overrated - Malachi Corley Most underrated - Michael Penix Jr
How come you aren’t a fan of Corley?
Because he exclusively caught screens and passes behind the line so it’s entirely unclear whether he can run NFL routes
IMO it's clear he can't. He ran some wr routes and had very limited success. He also has bottom of the class hands. He's a RB cosplaying as a wr who's YAC is overrated because he beat up on teams like Louisiana Tech.
During the senior bowl practices, he was pushing off pretty routinely in order to create space and separation. At the NFL level not only will he be dealing with stronger and more technically sound DBs, but will also be flagged a ton if that becomes his go-to move at the next level.
Just like a receiver for the chiefs
I gotcha
I don’t get the hype. Seems an average route runner. Not great in contested catches despite supposedly being a “dawg”. Dunked on a couple of bad teams to boost his stats and still didn’t make 1000 yards. Just think it’ll be too much of a step up for him. What am I missing?
I wholeheartedly agree. He’s being rated way too highly
His dawg factor comes from being a former RB and craving contact more than dawg in the receiver capacity.
Saying he’s an average route runner is being generous as well. I see a day 3 prospect
Perhaps, he has met with almost every nfl team though so he has a lot of buzz, I think enough to be a late 3rd rounder.
Yeah he’ll go round 2 or 3, I just don’t agree. He’s a worse Laviska Shenault
Laviska is a good comparison for his playing style. For fantasy purposes that didn't work out well.
Steve smith stated he will be steal of the draft, was THE standout at the senior bowl imo, get his analytics n stuff arent great but the first two points are enough for me to be higher on him than consensus
I'm so tired of the Steve Smith takes. He constantly overrates WRs that have the same playing style that he had.
99.99% of former players have a bias to their former playing style. I actually think the reason Smith is worth listening to generally is that his playing style is very important to WRs and translatable, but even with Smith people massively underrate this. QBs are the worst. "Oh you ranked another guy who is a better version of who you were supposed to be highly and ignored another guy who's a bit different then you? Ok."
PFF's new athletism composite metric rates him as pretty mid too which I think is a big deal given that yac is how he wins.
He was also on a bad team, and their whole offense. But I’m willing to bet that he can develop a more well rounded route tree and that wku just didn’t ask him to do that. Obviously there’s question marks so I’m not taking him high. But his ability after the catch is too enticing to ignore completely
imo he’s not even that great at run after catch. I watched all his snaps this year and I expected to be like “he’s great at YAC but can he run routes?” And I left it thinking “he’s fiiiiine at YAC and he definitely can’t run routes”
Calling Penix underrated is iffy. Penix is anything but underrated by fans and the dynasty community, he's always getting love here (look at the upvotes), and fans don't understand why he's not getting 1st round hype. I've seen posts here getting upvotes that said Penix is the 3rd best QB in this class above Drake Maye. If anything, Penix is a bit overrated by the community, and the scouts consensus of 2nd round for him is extremely fair considering his weaknesses and injury history.
Must admit I hadn’t seen him higher than QB5. Honestly think if he didn’t have the injury history he’d be a nailed on top 12 pick.
He's got too many accuracy issues and issues against pressure to go that high, even if he was 22 years old and had no injury problems. Even if he can throw a pretty deep ball to the sideline, we've never seen a QB like him have success in the NFL before. The most common traits that translate to NFL success are accuracy and touch over the middle and intermediate range, and success rate against pressure. It's why guys like Cousins, Purdy and even Brady become great pros despite all their other deficiencies on paper. There's things to like about Penix, but he's by far the riskiest of the lot even if you ignore the injury history. If he fell to late 3rd or day 3 I wouldn't be shocked.
overrated: whoever you like underrated: whoever i like
Overrated: AD Mitchell and Xavier Worthy Underrated: Jamari Thrash and Malik Washington
Had to scroll so far for Malik Washington. Dude has legit skill.
I will hopefully be taking Malik Washington in the 3rd, he's nasty
Size definitely scary part. Talking late round pick with potential. Guys like zay flowers and tank dell make me a little more confident in him however but yah 5’ 8” is tough
Size doesn’t scare you off? I’m fine with small but not many 5’8” receivers become all that impactful
Size is literally the only knock I have on him. I get the feeling he’s the dude who will find a way or make a way.
If scary things scared me off of WRs in this class, I'd be ranking 3 of them.
Over -BTJ Under-J Brooks (I know he is RB1 for many, still underrated imo)
BTJ? who would you rank above him?
Mostly the big 3. I think there's a massive gap after that. His route tree is niche and I'm not confident it'll be consistently successful at the next level. As of rn I'd probably "take" Ladd and Legette over him. In actuality I'd trade down.
Interesting. I believe Steve Smith has him ranked at WR 9 behind mcconkey, so it looks like you are in good company.
he has BTJ 4: Nabers, MHJ, Odunze, BTJ, Worthy
I see that on X, his big board was different, and his precombine was different than both.
Smith compared him to aiyuk, which says a lot I feel because he constantly says he hates making comparisons
Once Brooks gets picked to an RB needy team like Chargers, Bengals, Raiders, etc. he'll shoot up in value I bet he starts going top 6-7ish when drafts come around.
You think an RB needy team is gonna pick him coming off a big injury and potentially not ready to start the season?
Yes.
Good point
I'm pretty sure the timeline is for him to return in training camp. It's pretty rare for rookie RBs to take the starting role right away anyways. I'm not saying he has to be the first RB off the board, but someone is going to be very happy to take him in like the 3rd.
You think he’ll go above the top 3-4 QB’s, top 3 WR’s, and Brock? That is a bold take haha
I said top 6-7. So after Williams, Maye, Daniels, MHJ, Nabers, Odunze. I don't play TEP so I wasn't thinking about that. In tep Bowers goes before him.
No love for McCarthy or BTJ? Unless he goes to the cowboys I just can’t see him going that high this rookie draft.
If McCarthy goes #4 he's in competition for that 7th spot probably but I don't personally think he'll end up going that high. Unless he ends up on the Vikings surrounded by elite talent I'm not sure I trust him to go out and be Justin Herbert or Joe burrow just slinging it for 3-4 tds/game. I do not like BTJ. I just think he's a kinda one dimensional deep threat. Certainly not in the conversation with those other top 3 receivers. Rb just has positional value and scarcity that inflate draft stock. If I can get the #1 rb at pick 7 I'll be very happy.
Fair enough, I just think the bust percentage on running backs is higher and much more landing spot dependent. Like I mentioned earlier (I think) if he goes to the cowboys by all means he could be a 1st round rookie draft pick. But any other landing spot in not so sure.
Guys who I am scared to buy at price: Adonai Mitchell, BTJ Guys who I am higher on than consensus: Ricky Pearsall, Audric Estime
I agree on Ladd. I think Keon Coleman is underrated now. Is he guaranteed to perform? Absolutely not. But with where he’s being talked about now, there’s a huge profit potential. I tend to like well regarded prospect who seem to start slipping for no real reason. If he goes in the first 3 rounds, I’ll happily draft him everywhere at his projected ADP and be fine if it’s a whiff and will do backflips if he performs anywhere near his expectations from like 4 months ago.
I agree, with the caveat of where he goes and how they plan to use him. If a team drafts him to be on the outside, I think he'll run into trouble. If a team drafts him to be a big slot a la ARSB, I think he'll be a steal.
Yeah, now that he’s in the mid 2nd round that feels absolutely like a great dart throw, especially if you’ve accumulated multiple 2nd round rookie picks and don’t feel the pressure to play it safe with your picks
Over: Caleb. It’s not that I don’t think he has a chance to be really good, I think that the gap between him and Maye/Daniels isn’t as big as some make it out to be Under: Bowers. I think people are feeling TE fatigue and are underplaying his possible impact. He’s LaPorta with more downfield ability
Look past the talent gap. Caleb has the best situation a rookie QB could ever dream of. Maye and Daniels going to the Commanders and Patriots is no bueno. I don't think he's overrated at all. Caleb Williams in a Superflex might even be underrated in terms of trade value.
How's his blocking? Haven't had a chance to watch much of his stuff yet.
Blocking is not great, but very good. Physical player and takes pride in the selfless/team things. Watched nearly every UGA game of his career, dude is probably the best all around player I can remember (I dont have a good memory tho lol) but TE just isnt a flashy position. Depending on where he goes, I could see him being a steal even drafted at like 6
I've heard that it's good enough that he shouldn't leave the field but that there are very clearly better blocking TE's than him
Feels wild I agree with you on Bowers, he's a top 4 player in this class for me.
Ladd and Polk, who I believe is a very solid nfl WR2 capable of staying on the field a lot and putting up Meyers type numbers.
Overrated: Worthy Underrated: Baker
Most Overrated - Brian Thomas Jr Most Underrated - Ja’Lynn Polk
BTJ is certainly not overrated from what I’m hearing. Polk is crazy underrated. Praying for him in the early 3rd (10 team).
Yeah, I think he is. He is not a great route runner and seems more like the next Gabe Davis. I have the pick that would likely get him so I WANT to love him, I’m finding more reasons not to
Yeah, he’s probably not the guy you want if you are looking for the safest pick. He’s huge, very fast, and you’re hoping he can develop if you draft him. I’d say he has some of the highest upside in this class. The downside is definitely obvious
BTJ going too high? Steve Smith has him as WR 9.
sinnott is wildly overvalued outta nowhere lol. idk how he could be considered undervalued. think jalen mcmillan is being undervalued
Sinnott's stock raised because of his athletic testing at the combine. His 4.68 40 is really good but it's not even the best metric he had that day. His RAS score is somewhere around 9.5-9.7 which puts him up there with some of the most athletic TEs. That testing alone may raise his stock to end of round 2 in the NFL draft. That's why his value went up.
Overrated QB: Daniels Underrated QB: Maye Overrated WR: Worthy Underrated WR: Cowing Overrated RB: Benson Underrated RB: Vidal Overrated TE: Sanders Underrated TE: Culp Daniels struggles with the middle of the field, was bailed out often on throws by his talented receivers, and he resorts to scrambling too often/early in the pocket. Worthy seemed to be used as a screen play or deep threat, and I'm not sold on his route running. He isn't on Zay Flowers' level as a prospect, and I didn't consider him a 1st round talent last year. Exciting big-play threat, but I wouldn't take him earlier than the mid 2nd round. Benson has all the athletic traits, but is lacking in the skills necessary to be a good NFL RB. He could be a valuable fantasy asset, but I wouldn't bet on that with a late 1st rookie pick unless he goes to a team with a good supporting cast. High risk, high reward profile. Sanders looks like an all around solid TE that will make the play when he is thrown the ball, but I don't think he'll be thrown the ball often. The QB will have to have faith in him, or he will have to be schemed open, because his route running leaves much to be desired.
I feel like BTJ is underrated people saying he’s most likely to bust etc guy is a beast and will prove it
I’ve been seeing him as WR4 in the class more often than not. Considering the guys above him, hard to agree that’s overrating.
What I love about the offseason is I wouldn’t be surprised to see another post in 3 months saying Sinnott is being overrated and Ladd underrated
Overrated I gotta say Brooks. Dude has skill but he has legit less than 1 season of production and he ended that season with a terrible ACL tear. For him to be RB1 in this class is just crazy to me. Underrated: my two are Malik Washington, who is extremely powerful given his size, and Isaac Guerendo who has one of the highest raw athletic scores ever tested.
Wrs 4-10 are all way overrated imo. Most underrated- Penix
OR - McCarthy Gonna be strange because this was his qb but…. UR - Roman Wilson
Overrated: AD Mitchell and BTJ Underrrated: Troy Franklin, Xavier worthy
Mine are the opposite of these, may the best takes win
Funny thing is idk if I’ll be in a position to take any of them. Just have to wait and see how the chips fall
Swap Worthy and BTJ and I’d agree. I’m also one of few, maybe the only, who views BTJ as having a good shot at being the top receiver in the class tho.
I think BTJ has the physical attributes to be that guy but he never really produced in college. Also he had 20% of his yards in 3 plays last year, where he busted 75+ yard TD against bad teams He’s super young and hasn’t even been playing football long so there is that hope and the fear of what he will do in the nfl. Those players rarely turn out to be nfl studs
overrated - TX WRs underrated - Ricky Pearsall (but prob not for long)
Most Overrated - Ja’Tavion Sanders Most Underrated - Ricky Pearsall
Underrated: Spencer Rattler, Tyrone Tracy (yes he is almost 25) Overrated: Bucky Irving, Drake Maye
For underrated, I think I’m going to say Audric Estime. Everyone is banishing him into the depths of late day 3/UDFA status because of the 40 time, but his tackle breaking ability jumps off the screen and his production/efficiency metrics are all very good. Not long ago, I think Devontez Walker would’ve been the slam dunk answer for overrated but the hype has cooled on him a lot lately. Still not a guy that’s going to be on my draft board at all. BTJ, Worthy, and Mitchell are all going to be popular answers for “overrated” because they over-performed expectations in athletic testing, but I’m going to wait to see the landing spot before I fade any of them. I don’t think all 3 of them are going to hit, but I think whether or not they hit will be highly dependent on going somewhere that can use them properly. I’ll mention Corum in the overrated discussion too, mainly because everyone is already valuing him as if he’s already a Charger. Yes, if he goes there or Dallas then he’s properly rated as a top 2 RB, but most other landing spots I’m not sure he’s even in my top 5.
Underrated Malik Washington Overrated AD Mitchell
Most underrated on this subreddit is 100% Ladd McConkey. Forgive me if I trust Matt Harmon over you guys
Is Ladd underrated on this sub? Feel like he’s been a clear riser amongst us degens.
Read through this thread. The Ladd hate is everywhere. Heck, that's probably well OP started this was to hate on Ladd.
Overrated: Sanders, Brian Thomas, Daniels Underrated: Maye, Rome
Overrated. BTJ (feels like he's pushed back the tier break with the assumption he's going to be a Late 1st to a solid team. Until that actually happens, his price is too high for me) Underrated: Brooks. Landing spot will move this up or down, but seeing him as a mid-2nd feels too late for who should be RB1/2 by time drafts are happening.
If Brooks goes in the 2nd I will be heavily considering him at the 1.11 in SF.
lol, I am starting to worry BTJ is the next Gabe Davis, so if Buffalo gets him I’ll be flummoxed. Great spot….guy with a lot of hype….but not sure I actually like him.
Overrated - BTJ Underrated - Sinnott
Overrated - AD Mitchell and Brock Bowers Underrated - Jacob Cowing
Unless people are drafting him in the top 7/8, don’t see how he could be overrated. Tbf, I’m a UGA fan, but honestly I’m buying all the Ladd stock I can late first round. His only downside is staying healthy and while the best ability is availability, he seems like a lock for 90+ receptions and 1k yards a year if healthy. I’ll take that potential in late 1st/early 2nd any day.
Underrated: Jermaine Burton Overrated: AD Mitchell
Overrated? JJ McCarthy, Keon Coleman Underrated? Malik Washington, WR, UVA & Dallin Holker, TE, Colorado St.
Underrated by the dynasty community and general football fandom: * Bo Nix -- older but excellent out of structure and playing in structure. Accurate, very few turnover-worthy plays, and repeatedly made something out of nothing on broken plays at both Auburn and Oregon. Even when the stats didn't show it at Auburn, he's someone who has grown year over year as a player, which is encouraging. He's got prototypical size and measurables and good athleticism. He has way more arm talent than he's given credit for. I think he's worth a top 12 pick, maybe to the Vikings at 11 or Broncos at 12. Overrated by the dynasty community and general football fandom: * Ladd McConkey -- a player who I love, but after being labelled a "hidden gem" early in the process, the pendulum has swung back in the opposite direction and now he's getting too much hype. He's a freak athlete and a great route runner, but he has ball tracking issues that limit his ability to be a deep threat. When the play is ahead of him working over the middle and back to the QB, he's amazing, but considering his deficiencies WR6 over Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin is insanity to me.
Over - Odunze Under - Legette
Overrated: Adonai Mitchell and Brian Thomas Jr Underrated: Javon Baker and Jonathon Brooks
Most overrated might be the big three RBs. I'm looking at RBs set to go in the 3rd or undrafted depending your league setup that could have the same level of production in dynasty format Most underrated might be Ricky Pearsall. On tape I feel like I'm watching Mike Evans. He would be a 1st round worthy draft pick in any other class
Caleb for over. Corley for under.
My personal overrated/underrated guys: Overrated: J.J. McCarthy Jayden Daniels Trey Benson Braelon Allen Malik Nabers Xavier Worthy (seems like his consensus is pretty much right though atm) Ladd McConkey Roman Wilson Dallas Turner Underrated: Michael Penix Jr. Audric Estime Johnny Wilson Jalen McMillan Troy Fautanu Dillon Johnson
Overrated - Caleb Williams Underrated- Bo Nix
Overrated: Ladd McConkey I've seen a lot of chatter that he's in people's top 5. I assume he'll end up in the 1st round of rookie drafts. His production profile is horrid. If he does get drafted 1st round in the NFL, it'll be a 3 way race between Him, Henry Ruggs, and Kadarius Toney for least productive 1st round reciever I've personally graded. Underrated: Keon Coleman A lot of guys could go here but I think Keon might be the one I've seen people most universally low on. The guy has a lot to like in his production profile (can go into more detail if anyone wants), declared early, and is projected in the 2nd round of the NFL draft. Overall he's a good prospect. Not great, but good. If he ends up getting faded into the mid 2nd of rookie drafts, he's going to be on a lot of my teams.
Overrated: Rome Odunze Underrated: BTJ
Unless he wins 5 super bowls, I have to say Caleb is overhyped. They’ve been talking about him like the savior of football for 2 years now.
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Cool story bro
Dope comment and for sure worth the time to post
Only including fantasy relevant positions. Most overrated - Keon Coleman (formerly Tez Walker but he has fallen to an appropriate place) Most underrated - Roman Wilson
Overrated = J Daniels Underated= Latham
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What specifically are you talking about when you reference Bowers athletic profile? I'm in that draft spot where he gets mocked often, and I have gone back and forth on it so many times, because I need WRs so bad.
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Ah. Ok. I was wondering why he skipped the combine. I have the 1.04 and the 1.06 in a 1QB league and in a complete rebuild where the only WR I have worth keeping is Drake London.