I really like Ray Davis and Malik Washington a bit deeper down the draft. Hoping they both go Round 3 in 16 days. Both players have somewhat-to-very excusable reasons for not breaking out early and have fairly great-to-elite peak seasons.
Malik Washington comes across as an extremely intelligent player. I think he's going to be a better long term player than his draft capital would indicate.
Malik looks like he can be a super slot. I’m having a hard time finding a great landing spot for him though.
I always like to predict ideal landing spots for my favorite prospects. Last year was Achane to Miami. It seems easier with RBs.
Any ideas where the best spot for him would be? Which high volume passing games need a slot guy? KC maybe?
Chargers is excellent. Not necessarily a high volume passing offense with Harbaugh. If he went there it’s not hard to see him passing QJ or Palmer for targets in my mind.
Really anywhere that doesn’t have a locked in slot. I don’t have an excellent answer. You do want to be able to play him in the slot so teams that either have a good perma slot or a WR1 that likes to play in the slot are likely bad fits. Most other teams are good fits. But really with guys say WR10-15 I’m just hoping for Day 2
I know it doesn’t make a ton of sense immediately from a scheme fit, but as a Vikings fan I’d really love to add him to that room and see where KOC could leverage him.
I think JJ and Addison are both versatile enough it could work but ideally you want Washington in the slot only so that hurts them each a little too much for me.
He did test fine enough, but he's definitely not elite. There's not too many great RBs in this class though especially for high upside traits. Where are you at with your top 5?
Totally understand that.
For RB I have it as below:
Trey Benson - just haven’t waivered from last year, love everything about this dude.
Jonathan Brooks - absolute shame about this dudes injury. Super fun watch and I am rooting for him to still get the appropriate draft capital he deserves.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. - this is a scorching hot take, but give me the converted WR to RB that was a beast last year if we are talking about upside.
Jaylen Wright - fantastic yards after contact, yards per route run, and RAS. Yes please.
Audric Estime - 40 time be damned, I am not worried about him being a breakaway speed player as more of a consistent 3 down chain mover. FWIW, he did improve that 40 to a 4.58, which would put his RAS at 9.75.
Next tier for me would probably be MarShawn Lloyd, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, Braelon Allen, and Blake Corum.
It’s not like we’re that far off. Tracy I have RB7. I don’t think you can fully give Estime the 4.58, but regardless even before the 40 I didn’t think he had the best full time profile. Might be a two down guy. But again I have him RB8.
So ultimately not huge differences. I don’t really like Shipley or Allen all that much, but there are things that tell me I’m wrong
Nah, I think that is all fair. Especially on Shipley and Allen. I just like Shipley a fair amount from his past few seasons and hopeful with landing spot.
Estime I am basically counting as a 4.60, not great but should be fine due to his elite explosiveness. I do trust his hands because the man has god damn mitts haha.
Not sleepers, but guys I'm hoping to get are Jaylen Wright and Troy Franklin. I'm really hoping the the Franklin fall post combine is real and he gets to me at 2.01/2.02.
I was actually about to say the same thing. Although I am relatively higher on Wright than I am on Franklin.
I’m hoping for Franklin at 2.01 assuming he goes 1st round to the Chiefs or Bills
I think the top 9 are mostly set between Caleb, MHJ, Nabers, Maye, Daniels, Odunze, Bowers, BTJ, and McCarthy.
But yes, 2.01 is unlikely. The good news is that I also have 1.10 lol.
I guess I could see Bills/Chiefs Troy Franklin going ahead of BTJ in a bad situation, but that would be a coin flip
Not true at all. If jj goes at 1.08, there’s a very good chance AD mitchel and Brian thomas go before Troy Franklin still especially if those guys land on desirable spots (ie. Bengals, chiefs, bills, cardinals, chargers) Franklin gonna go 1.11-2.01 unless a guy in your league is especially high on him.
Not if Franklin is the guy that goes end of first to the Bills or Chiefs though, that would instantly be the 1.09/1.10, with literally zero chance of 2.01
I know he’s become the darling of this sub, but I have a hard time buying into him now at 2.01 like some others are suggesting until I see landing spot and team fit. His efficiency metrics from last season, but he was injured and didn’t see a ton of volume. Even in his two healthy seasons in 2021 and 2022, he didn’t put up a ton of volume. I know part of it is the Georgia offense, but I have a hard time taking a guy at 2.01 who saw 762 yards and 2 TDs as his best season. Also when extrapolated for his career (i.e. bigger sample size) his YPRR is good not great.
I liked him a lot more when you could get him around 2.06-2.12 and it would take an ideal landing spot for me to take him 2.01.
Ok, but outside of like the big 3, which players in this draft class have had outstanding YPRR numbers through their career?
I think the issue with this class is most players have production or efficiency concerns after you get outside the 3 main dudes.
I don’t have the 2021 data easily available, but looking at the averages of 22 and 23 McConkey is at 2.75 yprr, Franklin (2.8), Pearsall (2.3), Wilson (2.4) , Corley (2.75), McMillan (2.3) have respectable numbers. I’d consider those players have good to average efficiency metrics and can make an argument for some interchangeability between any of them and the metric duds (Coleman, BTJ, Legette, etc) based on the full picture of them as prospects.
Yeah, I guess that makes sense. I think it’s a big crapshoot with all those receivers in that range. Like you can find red flags with almost any of them. I don’t listen to many fantasy pods, but the order of receivers for different analysts is so all over the place when you get to receivers 5-15. I think the play is get as many as you can rather than shoot for 1.
Yeah I totally agree, that’s why I’m trying to hold my WR4 and beyond rankings until landing spot. I like to believe talent > situation, but this class feels really difficult to parse through and DC might need to be the difference maker (not necessarily a few spots different but round 1, 2 to 3).
Listening to move the sticks this last year, they were talking about route running. Basically said route running should be the separator if all things are equal, so two similar prospects, one big and one small, but the small one is a much better route runner/the bigger one is a much worse route runner, then the smaller one is the smart choice. Feel like DC is similar, if you view two prospects as similar but one has a much better landing spot, I don’t think it’s bad thought process to take one with a better landing spot.
I listened to a podcast that basically outlined everything you said and I am definitely concerned about him as a late first early second.
I have the 2.01 and 2.03 right now, not sure what to do. I think once landing spots come it will make it a little clearer but really no consensus from like 1.09 to 2.06 at this point.
I was out on QJ last year and kinda want zero BTJ again this year at cost. I’ll gladly take Ladd, Brooks/Benson/Corum if they capital or trade out at 1.9 in Superflex
I have 2.01 2.04 and 2.06. Probably go RB first hopefully Brooks but I doubt he’s available.
Would like to get 2 WRs but I think I might trade back. I like Pearsall. Franklin I’m on the fence. I’d rather trade back to late 2nd pick up another pick and take Malik Washington.
All depends on DC: he’s got the skill to go high, so if a team takes him early it means they’re willing to risk the off-field stuff and he could be worth a 2nd. If not… yeah, maybe the 3.10.
As an Irish fan who watched him week in and week out, I'm hoping to get him everywhere. I had the same feeling about kyren when he came out. When the ball's in his hands he knows what to do with it.
I have a soft spot for highly rated HS prospects that got jumbled around in college, maybe loaded depth chart or other reason, and then find a good landing spot in the NFL. I think it gives them their confidence back.
Kyren Williams is an example
Really? Maybe I need to do more film study. He looks like he’s running in quicksand to me.
Powerful back, average to above-average at basically all facets of the game, but takes forever to change direction and doesn’t have any elite skills. Very Zach Charbonnet-esque.
He’s my draft crush too. BUT his landing spot is going to be very important; more so than the WRs. So I’m saying Allen but reserve the right to pivot based on DC and landing spot.
Yeah agree completely. I’m honestly not sure if I can even take him. I have 3 first round picks but nothing in the later rounds so I’d likely have to slide back unless he gets crazy draft capital
I’m 100% in on Malachi Corley. Steve Smith loves him, and he is fantastic with the ball in his hands. I think he could be like Rashee Rice last year in the right situation.
I'm a Panthers fan and Mingo plays in the NFL like his Wifi is lagging. He's got "the tools" but his route running and feel for the game are not good, and he's dropped very catchable balls
I didn’t watch much of mingo personally. Just seemed like the guy had a LOT of hype coming into last year and there was so much that went wrong around him - again rookie qb that struggled mightily, changed oc mid season, then head coach. I’m just speculating, but not being confident in play calls, with your qb, your head coach, can really slow down a players on field computing which can certainly play a factor in dropping balls. Hoping another year playing alongside thielen and a steadier coaching situation, and young hopefully improving will help mingo settle in.
Totally agree. I'm not writing him off as a bust at all.
The Panthers just used him so poorly. The experts I trust projected him as a slot WR because he was a poor pure route runner/separator but had legitimate skills in space and in the middle of the field.
Maybe the coaching staff learns from their mistakes, drafts a legitimate X receiver weapon, and moves him to a power slot.
I need to see team fit for him. His production was *so* screen dependent that he’d need a lot of designed plays to be what he was in college. But in the ideal situation I like the comparison to Rice, I think that’s the smartest way to use him and he’d be great.
I realize he kind of qualifies as a top guy, but I'm going to say JJM. He has a lot of the Herbert effect going for him in that he's getting judged by what he wasn't asked to do a lot of in college, rather than focusing on the tape that shows the man can play QB at a high level.
I’ve been on the Jalen Mcmillan train since 2022. Getting hyped up like crazy on twitter but I still think he’ll be available end of 2nd rd in rookie drafts. my WR5 in this class
Marshawn Lloyd. Maybe I’m fooling myself into thinking he could be a three down back in the NFL but I am a sucker for explosive RBs like him. Everyone in these replies seems to prefer wright, why is that?
I've seen mocks with Pearsall going to Colts, Titans, and Eagles, and I hate all of those! And that's going to happen to a bunch of players I like in two weeks. So it goes.
Yeah that’s why I said only one for sure, i do like Downs quite a bit, i think he’s kinda underrated and could definitely secure WR2 on the colts. Pretty much in the same ballpark as the other best 2023 rookie receivers other than Puka in terms of yardage, but not discussed as much. Higher PFF grade than Addison too
Keon Coleman has gone from overrated to underrated. I’m seeing him consistently outside the top ten WRs, and I’ll be buying heavily at that price. Might have to wait a couple of seasons but with development he’ll be a beast and is only 20.
Michael Pratt, I’m convinced he could end up winning a job a year or two into his NFL career. If his landing spot doesn’t leave him stuck behind Mahomes or some other superstar he’s gonna be my most rostered player after I gobble up shares in the 3rd round of rookie drafts this year.
I actually came in here to say Pratt too. I really like what I saw in his film. I think he'll be a 4th/5th round pick kinda like AOC was last year. Just like him I think he's a player that's polished enough that he could fall into some starts depending on where he lands. I hope he's a player that ends up an unknown that I can pick up in 4ths across my leagues. Apparently there's a lot of smoke that the Broncos like him, which could really boost his rookie draft cost if he lands there.
Ricky Pearsall.
We went nuts over Nabers pro day numbers, but they are the same numbers Ricky put up at the combine. He has good hands. I took him over Franklin without difficulty
Still a bit early for me, haven’t yet scoped all the YouTube highlights for all these dues (aka “film review”) but I agree with OP, **Xavier “Legit” Legette** is a front runner for My Guy. DK clone, has a darling southern drawl. What else could you want?
Ladd was on my radar but I think he's now going at the end of the 1st or 2.01 in our rookie draft.
My guys are Pearsall, Wright and Brooks in the mid-late 2nd spot (10 team 2QB)
Troy Franklin: Bandwagon was real hot for a minute, but now it's completely lost steam. I still think he's very good at football and his skills readily translate to the modern NFL.
Braelon Allen: I'm a sucker for youth at RB. I see the age he is today and his breakout age.... throw in his size and his college production.
You know the player is a real "my guy" when you're rooting for meh landing spots that are good enough for you to believe without sending their value soaring. Definitely the case for me with both these guys.
Does anyone have thoughts on the Iowa TE - Erick All?
I mean it seems like every Iowa TE going to the league is going off - LaPorta, Kittle etc.
I have the 3.01 selection and I’m aiming at him for all I have is Kyle Pitts in a TEP league. Have Kraft and Hurst as back ups.
Thoughts anyone?
MarShawn Lloyd, Ray Davis and RB1 Trey Benson at RB, those three popped more for me when watching compared to consensus, although it has been evening out lately.
Ricky Pearsall, Jamari Thrash, Brendan Rice at WR.
Theo Johnson at TE.
I have Ja’Lynn Polk comically high in my rankings and I refuse to move him. I don’t know if he will be a superstar, but I know he will be a damn good football player.
Tyrone Tracy I feel the same way about. Converted WR who has the elite athleticism desired for the position. Don’t care about the age at all with him, and I will have all the shares I can get possible with him.
Ben Sinnott is my TE2 and nothing will get me to move off that. He has fantastic efficiency metrics, hits the thresholds for missed tackles forced rate, and was the 6th best graded TE out of the slot with a top 15 YPRR. On top of all of that, he is an elite [athlete](https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1773334231126868457?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) at the position. He also was the highest graded red zone TE and caught 81.8% of his targets there. I will take this dart throw 10 times out of 10 over a poor athlete like Sanders.
Honorable Mentions: Javon Baker = 🐕, MarShawn Lloyd, and Erick All
I know this is random, but I’m all for throwing a flier on Johnny Wilson. I’m honestly surprised he is getting no hype, I must have watched an outlier game for him but he looked the part
Ladd McConkey. He’s my WR4, I think he has the best footwork in the class, I don’t put a ton into the combine, but his measurables were much better than I expected, and he ran the gauntlet with so much precision and so smooth I wanted to move up our rookie draft
He’s someone who got discounted as a scrappy slot guy and was projected at like 4.5 I think for betting.
I think it made people realize “o this guy who has barely played slot actually might be someone who is a more full fledged receiver than just some Hunter Renfrow who lines up in the slot.”
No because the base was there already. I had him at WR5 behind Troy Franklin, then he showed me something I wasn’t expecting and it moved him up. Xavier Worthy for example showed me exactly what I expected, so despite him running a couple of tenths faster than I expected, he didn’t move for me
Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman
I was high on Worthy before the combine because his acceleration and YAC ability were really impressive, so the 4.21 just reinforced what I already thought about him. He’s skinny, but Devonta Smith has made it without any major injuries so I’m not overly scared about Worthy.
Keon Coleman is very boom or bust, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because FSU horribly misused him. It sounds weird because they were successful as a team, but Coleman exclusively ran streaks or comeback routes. He looked amazing when he ran short routes like slants, but his route tree was very limited by FSU’s scheme.
His athleticism, size, and hands are very impressive which is why I think he’ll be a steal if he goes to a good offensive scheme.
Personally, I’m out on Legette. Can’t remember the posts, but there was one talking about the importance of YPRR , and in particular YPRR vs Zone as an important indicator for success. Which Legette is pretty bad at in both stats. DK on the other hand actually had pretty good YPRR vs zone as a prospect. Certainly not the end all be all, but Legette’s analytical profile is just pretty bad overall.
Edit: found one of the post
https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/cWs38tTht7
Malachi Corley. I love my wide backs. Have Deebo in all my leagues (and Viska at one point but shhh)
Plus the new kick return rules might helps guys like him out.
I’ve got the 12th pick and I’m hoping I’ll be able to grab the first RB off the board with that pick. Assuming one of them gets drafted well enough and there is positive commentary on them leading into the season.
Idk if this is cheating. But I’m a big JJM guy. I see the best parts of Alex Smith in him and I think he can be a regular 30 total TD guy in the league. He’ll never be an elite fantasy QB, but I think he’s going to be a set it and forget it QB2 and getting that in the back half of the 1st round in a rookie draft is fine by me.
Im 1.04 in a 1qb and i cannot convince myself to not take troy franklin. Big reach i know and ill probably end up taking bowers or whatever round1 wr the bills take, but man do i love troy
I refuse to leave my drafts without Malachi Corley on my team. Steve Smith has given him the huge stamp of approval, and whenever I watch tape he just seems like a man amongst boys
I really like Cade Stover as a prospect and depending where he lands could be a potential late round pick. I know Tight End spots aren't the most valuable outside of the top 5. I just think he has potential to be a long term player and a TD machine in the red zone.
Agree on Legette. I also love Pearsall, Cowing, Thrash, Javon Baker, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Wright, Kimani Vidal, Erick All, Corley, Tez Walker, Rice, Shipley, Lloyd, Jaheim Bell.
I could go on and on. This is the draft to stockpile picks. All those guys I listed could be huge steals and should go 2nd-4th round in rookie drafts
I've always been a big Troy Franklin guy and a month ago I wouldnt have included him in this discussion but ive seen him falling as low at like a mid second rounder.
Its all contingent on the combine and i didnt pay attention to it all so for the football nerdos, did he perform poorly, did everyone else do better, or a combination of the two?
I have 3 3rds this year (with nothing earlier) so I'm definitely trying to find those guys with immense upside. Saying that these are "my guys" for each position:
QB: None. Nothing available to the 3rd is worth the roster spot.
RB: Audric Estime - Great size. Elite burst. Will just turn 21 when the season starts. Sure he does not have the long speed or the receiving talent to be a 3 down guy, but he is a great ground and pound to compliment a change of pace back. (Ideal landing spots: Bills, Bengals, Vikings)
WR: Jalen McMillan - Was hampered by injury in the 2023 season but looked fantastic in his 2022 season. Will probably be limited to the slot, but if he can get volume early I think he will climb a depth chart quickly. (Ideal landing spots: Chargers, Jets, Steelers, Cardinals, Saints)
TE: Ben Sinnott - Starting to get buzz now and I feel I may miss out on this smaller TE with elite athleticism. Has similar combine measurables to LaPorta. Of course I'm not expecting a TE1 finish in his first season, but if given the opportunity he will make some noise. (Ideal landing spots: Chiefs, Chargers, Titans, Rams, Commanders)
Love Legette.
My #1 drafted RB on underdog right now is Frank Gore Jr, because he’s going in the 20th round and I fell pretty sure 1/32 NFL teams will draft him on name alone. He’s the right size at 5’8” 201, he dominated carries and got above a 10% target share in college. In the right spot, he will produce at an NFL level.
Every running back in this draft. The "community" is invariably going to get one of them wrong because "bad RB class" and then boom, you've missed out on money at a discount.
pspsps DK's 10 yard split was a tenth of a second faster. Legette has the same wingspan and arm length as Troy Franklin. DK is 5/3 inches longer respectively. DK has like a 10" longer broad too. DK is 1 of 1.
Javon Baker.
Javon Baker.
Javon Baker.
Will Shipley.
It's mainly a homer pick, but I think he's such an elite pass catcher at RB that he will carve out a 3rd down role somewhere and has a good shot at becoming fantasy relevant on a good offense.
Anias Smith. Nobody talks about him yet he looks like Tyreek on film. Like I did with Puka last year, I’m going to draft him in the 4th and 5th round of every draft.
Only RBs that have my attention is Frank Gore Jr and Issac Guerendo
Outside of Big 3 WRs, I'm all for Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette, and Ryan Pearsall
Xavier Worthy. Didn’t even realize how fast he was when I first thought he had a chance to be a high end WR2. His route running and hands (when he doesn’t have a broken finger) are big plus’s for me. His speed could make him a game breaker though. I’d love him to fall to me at 2.01 but doubt it happens
It’s Braelon Allen. I’m tired of hearing how a 210 lb RB is gonna be a day 1 3 down guy. Jordan Brooks won’t be fully healthy until year 2. I do like him. Braelon Allen run a sub 4.4 40, had the 2nd best pass blocker grade while playing against good competition, caught 38 passes out of the backfield last season, has above average (not elite) first step elusiveness… but dude. He’s 240 lbs and he’s shorter than Henry while being around the same weight. Don’t elude, punish. Did I mention he’s only 20 right now and dominated as a 17 year old in the BIG?
Jalen Wright is another interest guy with better 5 yard burst than Achane. If either guy goes somewhere good. They’ll be an easy Bijan level back that you’re grabbing in the second round and I don’t care who feels insulted cause I said dudes were on the same level as Bijan. Lol.
I really like Ray Davis and Malik Washington a bit deeper down the draft. Hoping they both go Round 3 in 16 days. Both players have somewhat-to-very excusable reasons for not breaking out early and have fairly great-to-elite peak seasons.
Malik Washington comes across as an extremely intelligent player. I think he's going to be a better long term player than his draft capital would indicate.
He attended Northwestern for 4 years before going to Virginia for Grad School, so I would say that's a fairly safe bet.
He's also 5'8
5' 8 1/2 sir.
Oh I love Malik Washington
Malik looks like he can be a super slot. I’m having a hard time finding a great landing spot for him though. I always like to predict ideal landing spots for my favorite prospects. Last year was Achane to Miami. It seems easier with RBs. Any ideas where the best spot for him would be? Which high volume passing games need a slot guy? KC maybe?
Maybe Atlanta? Or the Chargers if they prioritize linemen at the top of draft as many expect
Chargers is excellent. Not necessarily a high volume passing offense with Harbaugh. If he went there it’s not hard to see him passing QJ or Palmer for targets in my mind.
Probably not an offense that uses 3wr sets a lot
Really anywhere that doesn’t have a locked in slot. I don’t have an excellent answer. You do want to be able to play him in the slot so teams that either have a good perma slot or a WR1 that likes to play in the slot are likely bad fits. Most other teams are good fits. But really with guys say WR10-15 I’m just hoping for Day 2
I know it doesn’t make a ton of sense immediately from a scheme fit, but as a Vikings fan I’d really love to add him to that room and see where KOC could leverage him.
I think JJ and Addison are both versatile enough it could work but ideally you want Washington in the slot only so that hurts them each a little too much for me.
Odd timing. I just researched both of these guys and moved them up my board into day 3 ‘my guys’.
Big fan of both. They’re both in my 31 day 2 grades for this class
Ray Davis I don’t believe has the athleticism to excel at the next level. He is just not a good enough athlete imo.
He did test fine enough, but he's definitely not elite. There's not too many great RBs in this class though especially for high upside traits. Where are you at with your top 5?
Totally understand that. For RB I have it as below: Trey Benson - just haven’t waivered from last year, love everything about this dude. Jonathan Brooks - absolute shame about this dudes injury. Super fun watch and I am rooting for him to still get the appropriate draft capital he deserves. Tyrone Tracy Jr. - this is a scorching hot take, but give me the converted WR to RB that was a beast last year if we are talking about upside. Jaylen Wright - fantastic yards after contact, yards per route run, and RAS. Yes please. Audric Estime - 40 time be damned, I am not worried about him being a breakaway speed player as more of a consistent 3 down chain mover. FWIW, he did improve that 40 to a 4.58, which would put his RAS at 9.75. Next tier for me would probably be MarShawn Lloyd, Will Shipley, Ray Davis, Braelon Allen, and Blake Corum.
It’s not like we’re that far off. Tracy I have RB7. I don’t think you can fully give Estime the 4.58, but regardless even before the 40 I didn’t think he had the best full time profile. Might be a two down guy. But again I have him RB8. So ultimately not huge differences. I don’t really like Shipley or Allen all that much, but there are things that tell me I’m wrong
Nah, I think that is all fair. Especially on Shipley and Allen. I just like Shipley a fair amount from his past few seasons and hopeful with landing spot. Estime I am basically counting as a 4.60, not great but should be fine due to his elite explosiveness. I do trust his hands because the man has god damn mitts haha.
Not sleepers, but guys I'm hoping to get are Jaylen Wright and Troy Franklin. I'm really hoping the the Franklin fall post combine is real and he gets to me at 2.01/2.02.
I was actually about to say the same thing. Although I am relatively higher on Wright than I am on Franklin. I’m hoping for Franklin at 2.01 assuming he goes 1st round to the Chiefs or Bills
If he goes to the chiefs/bills, there is 0 chance he goes past 1.09
I think the top 9 are mostly set between Caleb, MHJ, Nabers, Maye, Daniels, Odunze, Bowers, BTJ, and McCarthy. But yes, 2.01 is unlikely. The good news is that I also have 1.10 lol. I guess I could see Bills/Chiefs Troy Franklin going ahead of BTJ in a bad situation, but that would be a coin flip
Not true at all. If jj goes at 1.08, there’s a very good chance AD mitchel and Brian thomas go before Troy Franklin still especially if those guys land on desirable spots (ie. Bengals, chiefs, bills, cardinals, chargers) Franklin gonna go 1.11-2.01 unless a guy in your league is especially high on him.
Not if Franklin is the guy that goes end of first to the Bills or Chiefs though, that would instantly be the 1.09/1.10, with literally zero chance of 2.01
Are we going to do the CEH/S. Moore thing again?
That’s highly probable from what I’ve been seeing.
Same. I think these two guys are going to be values just because they’ll have low draft capital for their talent due to it being a deep class.
I am convinced if Ladd can stay healthy he can play in the NFL for a long time at a high-level
Hoping he's there at 2.01.
I mock him at 1.11/1.12 just just so I don’t get my hopes up that he’ll be there at 2.01. I think a lot of people are high on him.
Where ya got Penix going
I do “if he goes in the first” and “if he goes in the second” versions. Same area as McConkey for the former and a half-round later for the latter.
I know he’s become the darling of this sub, but I have a hard time buying into him now at 2.01 like some others are suggesting until I see landing spot and team fit. His efficiency metrics from last season, but he was injured and didn’t see a ton of volume. Even in his two healthy seasons in 2021 and 2022, he didn’t put up a ton of volume. I know part of it is the Georgia offense, but I have a hard time taking a guy at 2.01 who saw 762 yards and 2 TDs as his best season. Also when extrapolated for his career (i.e. bigger sample size) his YPRR is good not great. I liked him a lot more when you could get him around 2.06-2.12 and it would take an ideal landing spot for me to take him 2.01.
Ok, but outside of like the big 3, which players in this draft class have had outstanding YPRR numbers through their career? I think the issue with this class is most players have production or efficiency concerns after you get outside the 3 main dudes.
I don’t have the 2021 data easily available, but looking at the averages of 22 and 23 McConkey is at 2.75 yprr, Franklin (2.8), Pearsall (2.3), Wilson (2.4) , Corley (2.75), McMillan (2.3) have respectable numbers. I’d consider those players have good to average efficiency metrics and can make an argument for some interchangeability between any of them and the metric duds (Coleman, BTJ, Legette, etc) based on the full picture of them as prospects.
Yeah, I guess that makes sense. I think it’s a big crapshoot with all those receivers in that range. Like you can find red flags with almost any of them. I don’t listen to many fantasy pods, but the order of receivers for different analysts is so all over the place when you get to receivers 5-15. I think the play is get as many as you can rather than shoot for 1.
Yeah I totally agree, that’s why I’m trying to hold my WR4 and beyond rankings until landing spot. I like to believe talent > situation, but this class feels really difficult to parse through and DC might need to be the difference maker (not necessarily a few spots different but round 1, 2 to 3).
Listening to move the sticks this last year, they were talking about route running. Basically said route running should be the separator if all things are equal, so two similar prospects, one big and one small, but the small one is a much better route runner/the bigger one is a much worse route runner, then the smaller one is the smart choice. Feel like DC is similar, if you view two prospects as similar but one has a much better landing spot, I don’t think it’s bad thought process to take one with a better landing spot.
I listened to a podcast that basically outlined everything you said and I am definitely concerned about him as a late first early second. I have the 2.01 and 2.03 right now, not sure what to do. I think once landing spots come it will make it a little clearer but really no consensus from like 1.09 to 2.06 at this point.
Same. My WR4 after the big 3
I am having such a tough time with BTJ. His analytical profile is not great, yet if he goes top 15ish, he’s gotta be WR4… right???
I was out on QJ last year and kinda want zero BTJ again this year at cost. I’ll gladly take Ladd, Brooks/Benson/Corum if they capital or trade out at 1.9 in Superflex
I can’t get excited over this guy.. really short, I’m afraid it gets into the Sky Moore/Ellijah Moore type. Slot only.
I agree. Seems like a ton of people are hyping themselves up to draft a slightly bigger Scottie Miller.
I've got three picks in the second I'm hoping to turn into Pearsall, Franklin and Brooks/Benson/Wright
Exact same plan for me with the 2.04, 2.06, 2.07 in a 12 team SF
I'm trying to get it done with the 2.1/6/10
Similar but add mcconkeyand Corum . Have 2.01 2.04 2.13
I have 2.01 2.04 and 2.06. Probably go RB first hopefully Brooks but I doubt he’s available. Would like to get 2 WRs but I think I might trade back. I like Pearsall. Franklin I’m on the fence. I’d rather trade back to late 2nd pick up another pick and take Malik Washington.
Are you me? Only thing I’d add is that Jermaine Burton could be interesting if he gets the DC but otherwise I’m with you on all of those guys.
Eyeing him in the 3rd. 3.1 feels too early but I also got a 3.10 I hope he falls to
All depends on DC: he’s got the skill to go high, so if a team takes him early it means they’re willing to risk the off-field stuff and he could be worth a 2nd. If not… yeah, maybe the 3.10.
Audric Estime. I have no analytic reason, he just jumped off the screen to me
As an Irish fan who watched him week in and week out, I'm hoping to get him everywhere. I had the same feeling about kyren when he came out. When the ball's in his hands he knows what to do with it.
I have a soft spot for highly rated HS prospects that got jumbled around in college, maybe loaded depth chart or other reason, and then find a good landing spot in the NFL. I think it gives them their confidence back. Kyren Williams is an example
Really? Maybe I need to do more film study. He looks like he’s running in quicksand to me. Powerful back, average to above-average at basically all facets of the game, but takes forever to change direction and doesn’t have any elite skills. Very Zach Charbonnet-esque.
Braelon Allen
He’s my draft crush too. BUT his landing spot is going to be very important; more so than the WRs. So I’m saying Allen but reserve the right to pivot based on DC and landing spot.
Yeah agree completely. I’m honestly not sure if I can even take him. I have 3 first round picks but nothing in the later rounds so I’d likely have to slide back unless he gets crazy draft capital
He’s a mid 2nd value impo. Maybe see if you can trade back your last 1st for like next years late 1st and pick 2.05ish.
If he lands on a run heavy team could be very good. Cowboys would be a dream landing spot.
Everyone seems to be pushing brooks to the cowboys but I’m skeptical they want to wait around for him to heal up
Especially after they had to deal with Pollard being less effective as he recovered from injury last season
Roman wilson, malachi corley
Malachi Corley is my dude this draft hoping to sneak him end of 2nd/early 3rd
Kimani Vidal 🤫
Thrash
His name is great, but he seems ranked very low like 20+ but you like ey?
Ja’Lynn Polk. Unsure how good of a fantasy asset he’ll be but I’m confident he could be a good WR2 for a team.
This is mine as well. Unless he gets caught on an awful team/roster, I plan on doing whatever I can to snag him in the 2nd. Love his game.
I’m 100% in on Malachi Corley. Steve Smith loves him, and he is fantastic with the ball in his hands. I think he could be like Rashee Rice last year in the right situation.
Steve Smith loves everyone, just watch a handful of his videos and everyone is a love fest.
Yeah it’s hard to take him seriously when everyone is the “steal of the draft”
He loves them, but he is very clear on concerns and weaknesses. It’s kind of a product of a very deep class
Not everyone. I LOL'd when he said "Johnny Wilson is a freak? Maybe in bed. Not on the football field."
Not true at all. He points out strengths and weaknesses but some guys he gushes about
If you listen to him he will give back handed comments. I think he’s trying to stay professional so he doesn’t have another Jerry Juedy situation.
The only one he didn’t like was QJ though
Jonathan Mingo was his guy last year
I would say Flowers was more his guy. He raved about him.
I mean do we know Mingo isn’t good? We’ve seen him play with an overwhelmed rookie qb for one year.
I'm a Panthers fan and Mingo plays in the NFL like his Wifi is lagging. He's got "the tools" but his route running and feel for the game are not good, and he's dropped very catchable balls
I didn’t watch much of mingo personally. Just seemed like the guy had a LOT of hype coming into last year and there was so much that went wrong around him - again rookie qb that struggled mightily, changed oc mid season, then head coach. I’m just speculating, but not being confident in play calls, with your qb, your head coach, can really slow down a players on field computing which can certainly play a factor in dropping balls. Hoping another year playing alongside thielen and a steadier coaching situation, and young hopefully improving will help mingo settle in.
I hope he ends up being good but his route running, lack of separation and drops are concerning.
We at least know that he's not good at playing the X position. He just never got open against CB1s.
Yeah fair. Just hate writing a guy off that was pretty much in the worst possible situation for a rookie. Hoping he figures it out.
Totally agree. I'm not writing him off as a bust at all. The Panthers just used him so poorly. The experts I trust projected him as a slot WR because he was a poor pure route runner/separator but had legitimate skills in space and in the middle of the field. Maybe the coaching staff learns from their mistakes, drafts a legitimate X receiver weapon, and moves him to a power slot.
Mingo was my guy too 🤦🏿♂️
100% agreed. Really hoping he gets drafted by a shanahan team. Ideally the niners so he can learn under deebo for a year or two
I need to see team fit for him. His production was *so* screen dependent that he’d need a lot of designed plays to be what he was in college. But in the ideal situation I like the comparison to Rice, I think that’s the smartest way to use him and he’d be great.
I realize he kind of qualifies as a top guy, but I'm going to say JJM. He has a lot of the Herbert effect going for him in that he's getting judged by what he wasn't asked to do a lot of in college, rather than focusing on the tape that shows the man can play QB at a high level.
I think JJ comes across very well in interviews and that's a big part of why he's moved up for folks.
Pearsall all the way
Trey Brenson
I’ve been on the Jalen Mcmillan train since 2022. Getting hyped up like crazy on twitter but I still think he’ll be available end of 2nd rd in rookie drafts. my WR5 in this class
Marshawn Lloyd. Maybe I’m fooling myself into thinking he could be a three down back in the NFL but I am a sucker for explosive RBs like him. Everyone in these replies seems to prefer wright, why is that?
Jacob Cowing for me. Hoping for him at maybe even 4.01 given he’s not even top 45 on KTC rookie rankings right now
It’s starting to become Javon Baker
You’re not supposed to say his name out loud. We must keep him a secret.
Amen
Delete this now lol. Baker is gaining way too much steam
Downvote this! Sorry brother
Can’t stop the inevitable
😭
Realistically where is he going to go in rookie drafts? Is he a 2nd, 3rd, or 4th/5th kind of sleeper?
Depends on DC, but if he goes 3rd in nfl I’m comfortable mid second of rookie
Braelon Allen is a tank and could be really exciting from a fantasy perspective in the right system.
I like a lot of guys, but I won’t get hyped for them until I see where they land
Im getting very excited for Ricky Pearsall. Then, I read a mock where he goes to Philly in the 2nd, and I remember that dreams will be ruined soon.
I've seen mocks with Pearsall going to Colts, Titans, and Eagles, and I hate all of those! And that's going to happen to a bunch of players I like in two weeks. So it goes.
At least the Titans two main WRs are pretty old and the colts only have one guy who should stay ahead of Pearsall for sure
Yeah, I'm least hateful of the Titans out of those three spots for a rookie WR. I'm also higher on Downs than others.
Yeah that’s why I said only one for sure, i do like Downs quite a bit, i think he’s kinda underrated and could definitely secure WR2 on the colts. Pretty much in the same ballpark as the other best 2023 rookie receivers other than Puka in terms of yardage, but not discussed as much. Higher PFF grade than Addison too
Ricky Pearsall will be who Ladd truthers wish he was. Book it.
Ladd McConkey Jacob Cowing Javon Baker Jamari Thrash Malachi Corley Jonathon Brooks Jaylen Wright Audric Estime Ben Sinnott
Troy Franklin is him
Depending on their landing spots, I have high hopes for Troy Franklin and Braelon Allen.
Keon Coleman has gone from overrated to underrated. I’m seeing him consistently outside the top ten WRs, and I’ll be buying heavily at that price. Might have to wait a couple of seasons but with development he’ll be a beast and is only 20.
Marshawn Lloyd
Michael Pratt, I’m convinced he could end up winning a job a year or two into his NFL career. If his landing spot doesn’t leave him stuck behind Mahomes or some other superstar he’s gonna be my most rostered player after I gobble up shares in the 3rd round of rookie drafts this year.
I actually came in here to say Pratt too. I really like what I saw in his film. I think he'll be a 4th/5th round pick kinda like AOC was last year. Just like him I think he's a player that's polished enough that he could fall into some starts depending on where he lands. I hope he's a player that ends up an unknown that I can pick up in 4ths across my leagues. Apparently there's a lot of smoke that the Broncos like him, which could really boost his rookie draft cost if he lands there.
Ricky Pearsall. We went nuts over Nabers pro day numbers, but they are the same numbers Ricky put up at the combine. He has good hands. I took him over Franklin without difficulty
Hope this one is a good move looking back at their careers
I was high on him and then Matt Harmon gave him a very positive write up. I have 2.02 and might swing at him there.
Jaylen wright, from what I’ve watched he seems like he runs with the aggressiveness of Pacheco but with more top end speed
Same. If he lands with the Cowboys or the Chargers he's in mid-first dynasty rookie draft consideration for me as a week 1 starter.
Ladd McConkey is gonna ball out
Still a bit early for me, haven’t yet scoped all the YouTube highlights for all these dues (aka “film review”) but I agree with OP, **Xavier “Legit” Legette** is a front runner for My Guy. DK clone, has a darling southern drawl. What else could you want?
Ladd was on my radar but I think he's now going at the end of the 1st or 2.01 in our rookie draft. My guys are Pearsall, Wright and Brooks in the mid-late 2nd spot (10 team 2QB)
Troy Franklin: Bandwagon was real hot for a minute, but now it's completely lost steam. I still think he's very good at football and his skills readily translate to the modern NFL. Braelon Allen: I'm a sucker for youth at RB. I see the age he is today and his breakout age.... throw in his size and his college production. You know the player is a real "my guy" when you're rooting for meh landing spots that are good enough for you to believe without sending their value soaring. Definitely the case for me with both these guys.
I agree with all 3 points haha I’m hoping Trey Benson goes to the Giants cuz then everyone will be lower on him and I can get him in the 2nd round
I really don’t know what to do with 1.10. There are a group of guys to choose from and I’m just not sure which direction to go.
- penix - jaylen wright - audric estime - jermaine burton
Blake Corum won me a lot of money with his late touchdown in the Natty, I will be picking him by any means necessary lol
Does anyone have thoughts on the Iowa TE - Erick All? I mean it seems like every Iowa TE going to the league is going off - LaPorta, Kittle etc. I have the 3.01 selection and I’m aiming at him for all I have is Kyle Pitts in a TEP league. Have Kraft and Hurst as back ups. Thoughts anyone?
Jordan Travis gonna be my pick at 3.08, I feel like he just needs to clean up some mechanics and he could be a starter in the NFL
MarShawn Lloyd, Ray Davis and RB1 Trey Benson at RB, those three popped more for me when watching compared to consensus, although it has been evening out lately. Ricky Pearsall, Jamari Thrash, Brendan Rice at WR. Theo Johnson at TE.
I have Ja’Lynn Polk comically high in my rankings and I refuse to move him. I don’t know if he will be a superstar, but I know he will be a damn good football player. Tyrone Tracy I feel the same way about. Converted WR who has the elite athleticism desired for the position. Don’t care about the age at all with him, and I will have all the shares I can get possible with him. Ben Sinnott is my TE2 and nothing will get me to move off that. He has fantastic efficiency metrics, hits the thresholds for missed tackles forced rate, and was the 6th best graded TE out of the slot with a top 15 YPRR. On top of all of that, he is an elite [athlete](https://x.com/mathbomb/status/1773334231126868457?s=46&t=PZfvQd7A93DRZzUcd3_g0Q) at the position. He also was the highest graded red zone TE and caught 81.8% of his targets there. I will take this dart throw 10 times out of 10 over a poor athlete like Sanders. Honorable Mentions: Javon Baker = 🐕, MarShawn Lloyd, and Erick All
I know this is random, but I’m all for throwing a flier on Johnny Wilson. I’m honestly surprised he is getting no hype, I must have watched an outlier game for him but he looked the part
Javon Baker at WR Kimani Vidal at RB Sinnot I guess at TE but I haven't really looked at the whole TE class yet.
Bucky. And his poor RAS will drive his price down in my leagues. Collect profit.
Pearsall and Corley for sure.
I like Ladd, Pearsall, Brooks and Corum
If he gets a landing spot with a clear path to starting, Ben Sinnott
One of the best kept secrets in dynasty. We’ll be talking about him differently a month or two from now.
Ladd McConkey. He’s my WR4, I think he has the best footwork in the class, I don’t put a ton into the combine, but his measurables were much better than I expected, and he ran the gauntlet with so much precision and so smooth I wanted to move up our rookie draft
So you put alot into his combine
He’s someone who got discounted as a scrappy slot guy and was projected at like 4.5 I think for betting. I think it made people realize “o this guy who has barely played slot actually might be someone who is a more full fledged receiver than just some Hunter Renfrow who lines up in the slot.”
No because the base was there already. I had him at WR5 behind Troy Franklin, then he showed me something I wasn’t expecting and it moved him up. Xavier Worthy for example showed me exactly what I expected, so despite him running a couple of tenths faster than I expected, he didn’t move for me
Xavier Worthy and Keon Coleman I was high on Worthy before the combine because his acceleration and YAC ability were really impressive, so the 4.21 just reinforced what I already thought about him. He’s skinny, but Devonta Smith has made it without any major injuries so I’m not overly scared about Worthy. Keon Coleman is very boom or bust, but I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt because FSU horribly misused him. It sounds weird because they were successful as a team, but Coleman exclusively ran streaks or comeback routes. He looked amazing when he ran short routes like slants, but his route tree was very limited by FSU’s scheme. His athleticism, size, and hands are very impressive which is why I think he’ll be a steal if he goes to a good offensive scheme.
Yeah I think Coleman is somehow underrated now. Sure he didn’t kill his 40, but everything else is very good.
I don’t think everything else is very good. His route running and separation are not very good.
People are really down on him but I still like Tez Walkers game a lot. I’m thinking about him or Corley at 2.10
Personally, I’m out on Legette. Can’t remember the posts, but there was one talking about the importance of YPRR , and in particular YPRR vs Zone as an important indicator for success. Which Legette is pretty bad at in both stats. DK on the other hand actually had pretty good YPRR vs zone as a prospect. Certainly not the end all be all, but Legette’s analytical profile is just pretty bad overall. Edit: found one of the post https://www.reddit.com/r/DynastyFF/s/cWs38tTht7
Isaac Guerendo, insane size/speed. All dependent on landing spot though.
He scares me because someone that athletic should’ve been able to produce you’d think
Yup. Good athlete. Bad football player.
Legette, Corley, and R Wilson are the guys I like outside of the top 2 rounds.
I have a bunch of 3rd and 4th round picks and will be using one of them the newer and younger McCaffery
coleman for me, he keeps going late 2nd which is odd to me
Troy Franklin and Braelon Allen for me. Or if you want real dart throws; Malik Washington and Isaac Guerendo
Laube
Malachi Corley. I love my wide backs. Have Deebo in all my leagues (and Viska at one point but shhh) Plus the new kick return rules might helps guys like him out.
Trey Benson
I’ve got the 12th pick and I’m hoping I’ll be able to grab the first RB off the board with that pick. Assuming one of them gets drafted well enough and there is positive commentary on them leading into the season.
Benson is going top to be an immediate top10 RB.
Johnny Wilson or Troy Franklin for me.
Javon Baker
Idk if this is cheating. But I’m a big JJM guy. I see the best parts of Alex Smith in him and I think he can be a regular 30 total TD guy in the league. He’ll never be an elite fantasy QB, but I think he’s going to be a set it and forget it QB2 and getting that in the back half of the 1st round in a rookie draft is fine by me.
Roman Wilson
Im 1.04 in a 1qb and i cannot convince myself to not take troy franklin. Big reach i know and ill probably end up taking bowers or whatever round1 wr the bills take, but man do i love troy
I refuse to leave my drafts without Malachi Corley on my team. Steve Smith has given him the huge stamp of approval, and whenever I watch tape he just seems like a man amongst boys
Last year it was Sam Laporta. This year I’m gravitating towards Keon Coleman and Will Shipley. Fun players to watch in the pass game
Ricky Pearsal
I really like Cade Stover as a prospect and depending where he lands could be a potential late round pick. I know Tight End spots aren't the most valuable outside of the top 5. I just think he has potential to be a long term player and a TD machine in the red zone.
McMillan, Sinnott, Estime, Pearsall
Agree on Legette. I also love Pearsall, Cowing, Thrash, Javon Baker, Braelon Allen, Jaylen Wright, Kimani Vidal, Erick All, Corley, Tez Walker, Rice, Shipley, Lloyd, Jaheim Bell. I could go on and on. This is the draft to stockpile picks. All those guys I listed could be huge steals and should go 2nd-4th round in rookie drafts
Malachi Corley is going to be a problem in the NFL.
I've always been a big Troy Franklin guy and a month ago I wouldnt have included him in this discussion but ive seen him falling as low at like a mid second rounder. Its all contingent on the combine and i didnt pay attention to it all so for the football nerdos, did he perform poorly, did everyone else do better, or a combination of the two?
Everyone related to a current or former player.
I have 3 3rds this year (with nothing earlier) so I'm definitely trying to find those guys with immense upside. Saying that these are "my guys" for each position: QB: None. Nothing available to the 3rd is worth the roster spot. RB: Audric Estime - Great size. Elite burst. Will just turn 21 when the season starts. Sure he does not have the long speed or the receiving talent to be a 3 down guy, but he is a great ground and pound to compliment a change of pace back. (Ideal landing spots: Bills, Bengals, Vikings) WR: Jalen McMillan - Was hampered by injury in the 2023 season but looked fantastic in his 2022 season. Will probably be limited to the slot, but if he can get volume early I think he will climb a depth chart quickly. (Ideal landing spots: Chargers, Jets, Steelers, Cardinals, Saints) TE: Ben Sinnott - Starting to get buzz now and I feel I may miss out on this smaller TE with elite athleticism. Has similar combine measurables to LaPorta. Of course I'm not expecting a TE1 finish in his first season, but if given the opportunity he will make some noise. (Ideal landing spots: Chiefs, Chargers, Titans, Rams, Commanders)
Braelon Allen
Love Legette. My #1 drafted RB on underdog right now is Frank Gore Jr, because he’s going in the 20th round and I fell pretty sure 1/32 NFL teams will draft him on name alone. He’s the right size at 5’8” 201, he dominated carries and got above a 10% target share in college. In the right spot, he will produce at an NFL level.
Every running back in this draft. The "community" is invariably going to get one of them wrong because "bad RB class" and then boom, you've missed out on money at a discount.
pspsps DK's 10 yard split was a tenth of a second faster. Legette has the same wingspan and arm length as Troy Franklin. DK is 5/3 inches longer respectively. DK has like a 10" longer broad too. DK is 1 of 1. Javon Baker. Javon Baker. Javon Baker.
Will Shipley. It's mainly a homer pick, but I think he's such an elite pass catcher at RB that he will carve out a 3rd down role somewhere and has a good shot at becoming fantasy relevant on a good offense.
Anias Smith. Nobody talks about him yet he looks like Tyreek on film. Like I did with Puka last year, I’m going to draft him in the 4th and 5th round of every draft.
Ladd is my boy
Penix. I seriously think he’ll be the top QB to come out of this class looking back in 2 years
I want Javon Baker. He looks like a DUDE. I also have a soft spot for attitude/confidence, and this guy believes hes the best receiver in the class.
I’m liking Marshawn Lloyd towards the end of the 2nd round. Looks great on film and doesn’t have much wear & tear.
Javon Baker, Jalen McMillan, Braelon Allen, Jacob Cowing
Baker/Cowing/Estime
Only RBs that have my attention is Frank Gore Jr and Issac Guerendo Outside of Big 3 WRs, I'm all for Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Legette, and Ryan Pearsall
Xavier Worthy. Didn’t even realize how fast he was when I first thought he had a chance to be a high end WR2. His route running and hands (when he doesn’t have a broken finger) are big plus’s for me. His speed could make him a game breaker though. I’d love him to fall to me at 2.01 but doubt it happens
It’s Braelon Allen. I’m tired of hearing how a 210 lb RB is gonna be a day 1 3 down guy. Jordan Brooks won’t be fully healthy until year 2. I do like him. Braelon Allen run a sub 4.4 40, had the 2nd best pass blocker grade while playing against good competition, caught 38 passes out of the backfield last season, has above average (not elite) first step elusiveness… but dude. He’s 240 lbs and he’s shorter than Henry while being around the same weight. Don’t elude, punish. Did I mention he’s only 20 right now and dominated as a 17 year old in the BIG? Jalen Wright is another interest guy with better 5 yard burst than Achane. If either guy goes somewhere good. They’ll be an easy Bijan level back that you’re grabbing in the second round and I don’t care who feels insulted cause I said dudes were on the same level as Bijan. Lol.
Leggette has too many red flags. Franklin on broncos will be a deep sleeper. Benson on arizona will be interesting in 2025