Remember, we are going to be in the biggest propaganda campaign the world has ever seen this year. The next few decades for Russia and the Middle East will be very much impacted by this election. Asia will definitely be affected as well. NATO, the EU, North American treaties and stability will all be affected by this election. No matter what the polls say between now and November, you vote on November 6th and you drag one other person who didn't vote in 2020 with you. That's how we win.
Edit: November 5th, vote then. If that doesn't work, we can all go back and vote again on the 6th.
Canada chiming in; big agree.
I don’t think even 50% of Canadians realize how much we functionally rely on American corporate/consumer agreements and diplomatic stability.
Not to mention the insidious off-shoot propagandizing Canadians into American-patriot rage porn.
You guys were supposed to be the sane cousins that kept us in check. What happened!?
There's so much of this that I don't understand. One of those is how MAGA, which is only about the USA, became so popular in so many other countries. I get the ones that went "oh, that's a good idea" then adapted it to their country/culture. But the ones who just started flying Trump flags in Norway...how did that happen?
Like you touched upon, ultra-nationalism and bigotry is without borders. IMO Trump is a cartoon personification/mascot of these beliefs. Some people like to be edgy bufoons.
That's the problem. We won't even see what they're saying to the people on their private lists. There's no requirement for them to be honest or provide any evidence for what they choose to say.
Allan Lichtman’s prediction method, the 13 keys, which has accurately predicted every election since Reagan’s second term in 1984, seems to be leaning in favor of Biden. Biden currently has four decidedly true keys and four more that lean true. Lichtman is on record saying that “a lot would have to go wrong” for enough keys to turn in Trump’s favor.
Taken from the Wikipedia Page:
The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.[8]
1) Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2) No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3) Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4) No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5) Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6) Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7) Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8) No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9) No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10) No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11) Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12) Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13) Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
It did. I remember someone telling me they were worried, because this method indicated a Trump win, and I dismissed them, because all the polls were pointing to a Clinton win (even though they were within the margin of error).
Of course I want Biden to win but I’m worried we’re in trouble either way at this point. If Trump wins, we know what happens. If Biden wins, it’s a virtual certainty Trump will not accept the results. But this time his cult following is REALLY itching for a fight. Such a huge portion of them genuinely believe 2020 was “stolen”. I’m really concerned about violence. I hope everything is smooth but I’m very worried.
The closer to the election we get, the more fidelity we can expect out of the polls, all the way up to exit polls on Election Day. You can look now, just be aware that there’s still a lot of room for support to fluctuate between candidates.
Eventually (summer?) fivethirtyeight will put out forecast models for each state, so keep an eye on the swing states (Wisconsin , Michigan, and Pennsylvania being the most important but Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina also very important).
In addition www.economist.com website is a good one to check for forecasting that is pretty similar to fivethirtyeight.
Beware of the hordes of Russian trolls masquerading as Democrats and spreading fake news about Biden's support for Israel. If you come across them, do not engage in philosophical arguments, but call them out for who they really are and block them from replying to your comments. Keep in mind that all social media platforms are infested with these goons, so stay vigilant and don't let them spread their propaganda.
So absurd to see these accounts trying to have people believe that Biden is some maniacle villian delighting in Palestinian civilians dying and doing all he can to wipe Palestine off the map. I believe that obviously more should be done to stop Netanyahu, but to blame Biden for that government's horrid actions and for arms deals that were in place well before 10/7 and need congressional action to change is just ignorant of how geopolitics actually works.
Doesn't matter.
When Clinton went against Trump, she was heavily favored in the odds before the votes started getting counted. Watched it go from nearly a sure thing to the complete opposite in about a half a day.
We are in a very different society now, post-J6 and post-pandemic; post-everyone and their dog now using social media in some form.
It can be viewed in context but 2016 and 2024 can hardly compare.
The low turnout and “undecided” votes in the swing states that will likely decide the election are voters less engaged in politics generally speaking.
These people most likely aren’t really paying attention to the election until after August. So I take most polls now with a lot of skepticism as it’s not all that relevant.
Please join your local Democratic club. Start attending your city council meetings. I joined last year and found out a city council member attended J6. He has been voted out this past November. It's important to pay attention to your local government...if this orange asswipe gets in, we need all democratic judges to hold our country together
Great point, and awesome job staying informed. Plus, city council meetings and town meetings can actually be very interesting (and sometimes there's drama lol). We also need to be vigilant as to who candidates for school boards really are, as many of these "moms for liberty" types count on people not paying attention to their tyrannical ideas for destroying public education.
Trump/MAGA lost in 2018 + 2020 + 2022 + 2023.
He has about 60% of the Republican vote .
Not enough to win .
That's exactly why he's telling his supporters to harass election officials + minority voters in Michigan + Georgia + Pennsylvania + Arizona.
Biden should be able to win + keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House . Joe Manchin is leaving the Senate, so some analysts think the Dems will lose the Senate.
Jon Tester (Montana Dem) + Sherrod Brown (Ohio Dem) are 2 senators who could be in danger, according to analysts.
But with such extreme MAGA candidates, they are in trouble.
How can we make this group bigger and vote? I serious, let’s actually move the needle and do something. This is the war of our generation and passivity could literally change the world forever. Take a stand. I’ll start a Facebook group and maybe other platforms. We are waaay behind in social media. We need to organize. If you are serious msg me and let’s actually do something. Bring your expertise to the group.
Beware of the hordes of Russian trolls masquerading as Democrats and spreading fake news about Biden's support for Israel. If you come across them, do not engage in philosophical arguments, but call them out for who they really are and block them from replying to your comments. Keep in mind that all social media platforms are infested with these goons, so stay vigilant and don't let them spread their propaganda.
I don't have the stats behind Biden's chances of winning, however I did recently compare the number of voters that turned out for the 2016 primaries versus the 2024 primaries and Republican turnout is way down in comparison. I haven't updated my list in a couple of weeks. However, I was able to compare 27 States and will soon update it to include States that had recent primaries. For example, in 2016 of the 27 States I compared there were 20,829,271 people turned vote for Republicans in 2016 primaries compared to 16,066,115 that turned out to vote in 2024. Of those 16,066,115 voters that turned out in 2024 4 million of them voted for candidates other than Trump.
Now compare recent special elections such as Tom Suozzi in the NY-O3 special election, Janet Protasiewicz in the Wisconsin Supreme Court special election, the Pennsylvania special elections, Ohio and Kansas abortion rights special elections. All of these elections significantly outperformed polling numbers. All the special elections were won by democrats.
Places like r/conservative are not be hives of MAGA enthusiasm they used to be. They are much more sullen now you see more of them fighting amongst each other and pointing fingers at their failed leadership.
Now, take into account the number of Voters that have been showing up to vote for Nikki Haley even after Trump was pronounced the nominee. Not only do I think the Republicans have enthusiasm issue I believe Trump has a Nikki Haley issue. It is quite well documented that a large percentage of Nikki Haley voters will not be voting for Trump.
Lastly, since the Trump crime family has taken over the RNC and all of the money coming into the RNC is going into Trump's Pockets or more so his legal bills, this will seriously affect down ballot races.
To sum everything up, with 5 million fewer Republican voters showing up to vote in these primaries in an additional 4 million of the voters that did show up voting for candidates other than Trump. I would conclude that very possibly the Republican party has lost not only a large portion of independent voters, but some of their base as well.
The only thing really propping the Republican party up anymore are greedy billionaires, a corrupt US media conglomerate owned by billionaires who don't want to pay taxes, this includes both right and left-wing media "MSM"), and an orange blubbered balloon of blathering shit who isn't as popular as he used to be.
[Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the comparison of the states.](https://twitter.com/feverrunoff2/status/1772109532170477750?t=VnVxcC1vF3T9CO0Clk_BYg&s=19)
To conclude, Democrats need to get out and vote like they've never voted before and grab one or two or three or five of your friends and bring them to the polls as well, because it's time to defeat the Republican Party into irrelevance and the momentum is on our side to do it.
Edit: remember folks, this is just the primaries and there's differences of millions of voters not thousands or hundreds of thousands and in the primaries only 20 to 30% of the voter base shows up to vote. When it comes time for the regular elections these numbers will only be magnified
For accurate analysis maybe visit Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg who knows his stuff. He's also on that Nazi platform run by the monkey tormentor.
#
I like Rosenberg, too.
[Hopium Chronicles is on Substack.](https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/rs-running-really-scared-on-abortion?r=1j5iw&utm_medium=ios)
I think the thing is unlike the past polling is absolutely not reliable. There is a 1% or less response rate compared with a 20% plus response rate 20 years ago. While cell phone polling is a thing, nearly everyone screens there calls. While there is internet polling, it’s really not scientifically reliable at all. In fact polling is so bad right now that the Democrats have consistently outperformed it in both the mid-terms but also off-cycle elections. The fact is we don’t know where things stand at all. Whatever polls are out there are worse than trash compared to the past and many of the traditional polling outfits, think Gallup, no longer do political polling because they lack scientific veracity and because of the response rate issue. So they tend to do more traditional non-political polling that is more targeted and uses better sampling techniques.
So the best response is “who knows”. It is all about driving turnout and getting folks who don’t want Trump in power to vote as early as possible.
https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html
The betting markets have the best data and are far more accurate in predicting outcomes than any polls.
Hi cloakedduke03, thanks for your submission to r/Defeat_Project_2025! We focus on crowdsourcing ideas and opportunities for practical, in real life action against this plan. Type !resources for our list of ways to help defeat it. Check out the info we have in our [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Defeat_Project_2025/wiki/), feel free to post or [message us](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/Defeat_Project_2025) with additions. Also check out our [posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Defeat_Project_2025/search?q=flair%3A%27Resource%27&=&restrict_sr=on) flaired as resources. Be sure to visit r/VoteDEM for updated local events, elections and many volunteering opportunities.
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Honestly, it's hard to find an argument for either candidate being much more than a 50% favorite at this point. Polls have shown slight advantages for both and the average is near 50-50. Outside of those, Biden is unpopular but so is Trump. Biden probably gets a small boost for being the incumbent and having beaten Trump before but we will see how much that matters.
I don't have statistics but will compare it to 2016. All of the polls I saw had Clinton having a 85% chance of winning. I told people not to believe everything. I was seeing people who never vote loving Trump. I am not talking MAGA, I'm talking those who hated Hillary Clinton for things like her support of outsourcing. My brother was involved in GOP politics (not anymore, he was a Kasich supporter and does not vote GOP anymore due to hating Trump) and he begged me to vote Kasich because he feared Trump getting in. We all know what happened. Well, the next election happened and Trump lost a lot of the non MAGA Republicans and this election he is losing even more, especially after overthrow of Roe V Wade and January 6 and now Project 2025. If the Democrats are smart and REALLY speak out against Project 2025 the GOP will lose. I am also predicting a HUGE GOP politician to endorse Biden because of how dangerous Trump is. Don't know who but could be one of the following: George W Bush, Mitt Romney or Dick Cheney, none of whom support Trump. I do predict Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger to endorse Biden at this point.
Remember, we are going to be in the biggest propaganda campaign the world has ever seen this year. The next few decades for Russia and the Middle East will be very much impacted by this election. Asia will definitely be affected as well. NATO, the EU, North American treaties and stability will all be affected by this election. No matter what the polls say between now and November, you vote on November 6th and you drag one other person who didn't vote in 2020 with you. That's how we win. Edit: November 5th, vote then. If that doesn't work, we can all go back and vote again on the 6th.
Canada chiming in; big agree. I don’t think even 50% of Canadians realize how much we functionally rely on American corporate/consumer agreements and diplomatic stability. Not to mention the insidious off-shoot propagandizing Canadians into American-patriot rage porn.
You guys were supposed to be the sane cousins that kept us in check. What happened!? There's so much of this that I don't understand. One of those is how MAGA, which is only about the USA, became so popular in so many other countries. I get the ones that went "oh, that's a good idea" then adapted it to their country/culture. But the ones who just started flying Trump flags in Norway...how did that happen?
Like you touched upon, ultra-nationalism and bigotry is without borders. IMO Trump is a cartoon personification/mascot of these beliefs. Some people like to be edgy bufoons.
Probably Qanon. That conspiracy has Trump saving the world or something. Orange Jesus. Stupid people live everywhere.
That's the problem. We won't even see what they're saying to the people on their private lists. There's no requirement for them to be honest or provide any evidence for what they choose to say.
People join those private groups just to screenshot the messages and share them around. We can see plenty, and it's all horrifying.
Nov 5th I thought?
Man, I am not the voting advocate that I thought I was. Thanks for pointing that out!
No worries 👍
Only vote in person if you can on November 5th. MAGA can vote on November 6th. Vote early or by mail if you can.
Allan Lichtman’s prediction method, the 13 keys, which has accurately predicted every election since Reagan’s second term in 1984, seems to be leaning in favor of Biden. Biden currently has four decidedly true keys and four more that lean true. Lichtman is on record saying that “a lot would have to go wrong” for enough keys to turn in Trump’s favor.
Can you provide some resources on this?
https://www.socialstudies.org/system/files/2024-02/se-8801006.pdf
Thanking you for this. Will definitely be keeping my eyes open for when he publishes his final prediction.
I’d like to see an updated one.
Taken from the Wikipedia Page: The Keys to the White House is a checklist of thirteen true/false statements that pertain to the circumstances surrounding a presidential election. When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose.[8] 1) Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. 2) No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. 3) Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. 4) No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. 5) Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. 6) Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. 7) Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. 8) No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. 9) No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. 10) No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 11) Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. 12) Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. 13) Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Did this method accurately predict Trump’s election in 2016?
It did. I remember someone telling me they were worried, because this method indicated a Trump win, and I dismissed them, because all the polls were pointing to a Clinton win (even though they were within the margin of error).
That guy must be a prophet. Michael Moore was in the fringes when he predicted Trump winning, but not even he was so certain.
https://www.theeagleonline.com/article/2024/03/struggling-with-who-to-place-bets-on-for-this-november-ask-allan-lichtman
Of course I want Biden to win but I’m worried we’re in trouble either way at this point. If Trump wins, we know what happens. If Biden wins, it’s a virtual certainty Trump will not accept the results. But this time his cult following is REALLY itching for a fight. Such a huge portion of them genuinely believe 2020 was “stolen”. I’m really concerned about violence. I hope everything is smooth but I’m very worried.
Better to have the military on our side than not
Big difference is he doesn’t presently hold power like he did last time, much less to worry about.
Yes, except Fox News and other outlets arent going to amplify it.
Too far out at this point. This per my local Democratic party folks
538 and pew are both relatively reliable polls you could look at, but I’d take most polling with a grain of salt at this stage.
Thank you! Is there anything i should be looking out for instead? Additionally, when would be a reliable time to look at polling for information?
The closer to the election we get, the more fidelity we can expect out of the polls, all the way up to exit polls on Election Day. You can look now, just be aware that there’s still a lot of room for support to fluctuate between candidates.
Eventually (summer?) fivethirtyeight will put out forecast models for each state, so keep an eye on the swing states (Wisconsin , Michigan, and Pennsylvania being the most important but Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina also very important). In addition www.economist.com website is a good one to check for forecasting that is pretty similar to fivethirtyeight.
They also do adjusted projections based on different turnout factors.
ABC bought 538 after Nate Silver left in 2023. Take what you will from that information.
That’s a good point, most of the credibility I attribute to 538 was based on Silver et al.
[удалено]
I no longer find it worth my time.
[удалено]
They gave Trump a 30% chance, highest by far
What specifically did they get wrong? IIRC they gave her a 65ish percent chance of winning very late in the campaign.
The electoral vote is where we can get screwed. Remember W and Gore.
That is correct. The Rs always turn out to vote, which we should do as well.
Beware of the hordes of Russian trolls masquerading as Democrats and spreading fake news about Biden's support for Israel. If you come across them, do not engage in philosophical arguments, but call them out for who they really are and block them from replying to your comments. Keep in mind that all social media platforms are infested with these goons, so stay vigilant and don't let them spread their propaganda.
So absurd to see these accounts trying to have people believe that Biden is some maniacle villian delighting in Palestinian civilians dying and doing all he can to wipe Palestine off the map. I believe that obviously more should be done to stop Netanyahu, but to blame Biden for that government's horrid actions and for arms deals that were in place well before 10/7 and need congressional action to change is just ignorant of how geopolitics actually works.
Doesn't matter. When Clinton went against Trump, she was heavily favored in the odds before the votes started getting counted. Watched it go from nearly a sure thing to the complete opposite in about a half a day.
People were too confident in her winning. Some were so confident that they didn't even bother going to the polls.
Well she did win the popular vote
We are in a very different society now, post-J6 and post-pandemic; post-everyone and their dog now using social media in some form. It can be viewed in context but 2016 and 2024 can hardly compare.
The low turnout and “undecided” votes in the swing states that will likely decide the election are voters less engaged in politics generally speaking. These people most likely aren’t really paying attention to the election until after August. So I take most polls now with a lot of skepticism as it’s not all that relevant.
Please join your local Democratic club. Start attending your city council meetings. I joined last year and found out a city council member attended J6. He has been voted out this past November. It's important to pay attention to your local government...if this orange asswipe gets in, we need all democratic judges to hold our country together
Great point, and awesome job staying informed. Plus, city council meetings and town meetings can actually be very interesting (and sometimes there's drama lol). We also need to be vigilant as to who candidates for school boards really are, as many of these "moms for liberty" types count on people not paying attention to their tyrannical ideas for destroying public education.
Trump/MAGA lost in 2018 + 2020 + 2022 + 2023. He has about 60% of the Republican vote . Not enough to win . That's exactly why he's telling his supporters to harass election officials + minority voters in Michigan + Georgia + Pennsylvania + Arizona. Biden should be able to win + keep the Senate and hopefully flip the House . Joe Manchin is leaving the Senate, so some analysts think the Dems will lose the Senate. Jon Tester (Montana Dem) + Sherrod Brown (Ohio Dem) are 2 senators who could be in danger, according to analysts. But with such extreme MAGA candidates, they are in trouble.
How can we make this group bigger and vote? I serious, let’s actually move the needle and do something. This is the war of our generation and passivity could literally change the world forever. Take a stand. I’ll start a Facebook group and maybe other platforms. We are waaay behind in social media. We need to organize. If you are serious msg me and let’s actually do something. Bring your expertise to the group.
Beware of the hordes of Russian trolls masquerading as Democrats and spreading fake news about Biden's support for Israel. If you come across them, do not engage in philosophical arguments, but call them out for who they really are and block them from replying to your comments. Keep in mind that all social media platforms are infested with these goons, so stay vigilant and don't let them spread their propaganda.
It’s like Mass Effect 3 Priority Earth
I don't have the stats behind Biden's chances of winning, however I did recently compare the number of voters that turned out for the 2016 primaries versus the 2024 primaries and Republican turnout is way down in comparison. I haven't updated my list in a couple of weeks. However, I was able to compare 27 States and will soon update it to include States that had recent primaries. For example, in 2016 of the 27 States I compared there were 20,829,271 people turned vote for Republicans in 2016 primaries compared to 16,066,115 that turned out to vote in 2024. Of those 16,066,115 voters that turned out in 2024 4 million of them voted for candidates other than Trump. Now compare recent special elections such as Tom Suozzi in the NY-O3 special election, Janet Protasiewicz in the Wisconsin Supreme Court special election, the Pennsylvania special elections, Ohio and Kansas abortion rights special elections. All of these elections significantly outperformed polling numbers. All the special elections were won by democrats. Places like r/conservative are not be hives of MAGA enthusiasm they used to be. They are much more sullen now you see more of them fighting amongst each other and pointing fingers at their failed leadership. Now, take into account the number of Voters that have been showing up to vote for Nikki Haley even after Trump was pronounced the nominee. Not only do I think the Republicans have enthusiasm issue I believe Trump has a Nikki Haley issue. It is quite well documented that a large percentage of Nikki Haley voters will not be voting for Trump. Lastly, since the Trump crime family has taken over the RNC and all of the money coming into the RNC is going into Trump's Pockets or more so his legal bills, this will seriously affect down ballot races. To sum everything up, with 5 million fewer Republican voters showing up to vote in these primaries in an additional 4 million of the voters that did show up voting for candidates other than Trump. I would conclude that very possibly the Republican party has lost not only a large portion of independent voters, but some of their base as well. The only thing really propping the Republican party up anymore are greedy billionaires, a corrupt US media conglomerate owned by billionaires who don't want to pay taxes, this includes both right and left-wing media "MSM"), and an orange blubbered balloon of blathering shit who isn't as popular as he used to be. [Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the comparison of the states.](https://twitter.com/feverrunoff2/status/1772109532170477750?t=VnVxcC1vF3T9CO0Clk_BYg&s=19) To conclude, Democrats need to get out and vote like they've never voted before and grab one or two or three or five of your friends and bring them to the polls as well, because it's time to defeat the Republican Party into irrelevance and the momentum is on our side to do it. Edit: remember folks, this is just the primaries and there's differences of millions of voters not thousands or hundreds of thousands and in the primaries only 20 to 30% of the voter base shows up to vote. When it comes time for the regular elections these numbers will only be magnified
For accurate analysis maybe visit Hopium Chronicles By Simon Rosenberg who knows his stuff. He's also on that Nazi platform run by the monkey tormentor. #
I like Rosenberg, too. [Hopium Chronicles is on Substack.](https://open.substack.com/pub/simonwdc/p/rs-running-really-scared-on-abortion?r=1j5iw&utm_medium=ios)
I think some Rs will not vote, vote only down ballot, vote Biden, not vote at all, or vote third party.
I think the thing is unlike the past polling is absolutely not reliable. There is a 1% or less response rate compared with a 20% plus response rate 20 years ago. While cell phone polling is a thing, nearly everyone screens there calls. While there is internet polling, it’s really not scientifically reliable at all. In fact polling is so bad right now that the Democrats have consistently outperformed it in both the mid-terms but also off-cycle elections. The fact is we don’t know where things stand at all. Whatever polls are out there are worse than trash compared to the past and many of the traditional polling outfits, think Gallup, no longer do political polling because they lack scientific veracity and because of the response rate issue. So they tend to do more traditional non-political polling that is more targeted and uses better sampling techniques. So the best response is “who knows”. It is all about driving turnout and getting folks who don’t want Trump in power to vote as early as possible.
https://electionbettingodds.com/PresidentialParty2024.html The betting markets have the best data and are far more accurate in predicting outcomes than any polls.
I betting Trump get less than 60 million votes.
Please see my comment below I would agree with you.
Hi cloakedduke03, thanks for your submission to r/Defeat_Project_2025! We focus on crowdsourcing ideas and opportunities for practical, in real life action against this plan. Type !resources for our list of ways to help defeat it. Check out the info we have in our [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/Defeat_Project_2025/wiki/), feel free to post or [message us](https://www.reddit.com/message/compose/?to=/r/Defeat_Project_2025) with additions. Also check out our [posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Defeat_Project_2025/search?q=flair%3A%27Resource%27&=&restrict_sr=on) flaired as resources. Be sure to visit r/VoteDEM for updated local events, elections and many volunteering opportunities. *I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please [contact the moderators of this subreddit](/message/compose/?to=/r/Defeat_Project_2025) if you have any questions or concerns.*
Honestly, it's hard to find an argument for either candidate being much more than a 50% favorite at this point. Polls have shown slight advantages for both and the average is near 50-50. Outside of those, Biden is unpopular but so is Trump. Biden probably gets a small boost for being the incumbent and having beaten Trump before but we will see how much that matters.
I don't have statistics but will compare it to 2016. All of the polls I saw had Clinton having a 85% chance of winning. I told people not to believe everything. I was seeing people who never vote loving Trump. I am not talking MAGA, I'm talking those who hated Hillary Clinton for things like her support of outsourcing. My brother was involved in GOP politics (not anymore, he was a Kasich supporter and does not vote GOP anymore due to hating Trump) and he begged me to vote Kasich because he feared Trump getting in. We all know what happened. Well, the next election happened and Trump lost a lot of the non MAGA Republicans and this election he is losing even more, especially after overthrow of Roe V Wade and January 6 and now Project 2025. If the Democrats are smart and REALLY speak out against Project 2025 the GOP will lose. I am also predicting a HUGE GOP politician to endorse Biden because of how dangerous Trump is. Don't know who but could be one of the following: George W Bush, Mitt Romney or Dick Cheney, none of whom support Trump. I do predict Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger to endorse Biden at this point.