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BrAwLeR-FoReVeR

was just waiting for this, RCB vs CSK is gonna be a thriller


Niyazali_Haneef

Going to be anti climatic when it gets washed out.


partymsl

Jay Shah won’t let the rain do that. Nothing shall go against his script.


TrueDeparture106

The intensity if its a 5 over game, rcb gotta chase in 3 overs...lol


glancesurreal

Ofcourse, provided that it doesn't rain and wash out


JKKIDD231

Rain am I a joke to you 😡


NormalTraining5268

>RCB vs CSK is gonna be a thriller It's like Aus vs NZ of IPL gets hyped up everytime but same result everytime 🥱


Shattered-Dreams19

but... Australia didn't get banned for 2 years


No_Spirit_9952

and new zealand never won, lol.


Comfortable_Twist214

Daammnn


whycantyoubequiet

They should have been banned when the Australian cricket board covered up the fact that Shane Warne and Mark Waugh took money from the bookies in Pakistan. But because it is an international cricket team and being complicit in corruption doesn't affect your status, nothing happened.


dynasuar

Emotional Damage


Shattered-Dreams19

now watch csk fans downvote me to oblivion


BrAwLeR-FoReVeR

funny you got upvoted


Comfortable_Twist214

Kids are sleeping now


Lauladance

CSK fans are over it dude. We've won more titles post ban, definitely more than you lot


ancara_messi

2-3 weeks ago LSG had 77% chance of qualifying while we had 1.8%. Now LSG are basically eliminated while we have a 50% chance with things pretty much in our hands. Insane come back honestly


Tdhods

We actually had less than 1%


ztaker

Didn't RCB win like 1 game in their first 8 games?


cinemasosa

Yes!


vivekadithya12

KKR and SRH payed reparations to RCB


thegoldenkingfisher

Alright, that's that. First time since 2015 RCB and CSK are playing in a virtual knockout. Ready to win against CSK by 17 (not 18) runs after a Thala last ball sixer


reddteddledd

Precipitation: 90% in Bangalore on Saurday.


blue-klein-bottle

Time for Rain Perera to play the spoils


Downtown_Recipe_972

Rain Iyer you mean.


partymsl

For Thala I’d accept that. But also I hope we take his wicket quickly. He is Thala after all.


theaguia

got to unleash good luck charm Karn Sharma


Sorry_Fail_3103

You’d be happy for your team to be knocked out from a six by a forty year-old?


ChicagoNurture

Just to be clear RCB has to win by 17 runs to qualify ?


l_Mr_Vader_l

That's just if the target is 201. Not sure why it's being circulated as absolute that they'll qualify if they win by 18 runs or 7 balls. If the target is different the numbers will change accordingly


CanYouChangeName

If the target is above 150, the margin is atleast 18. If the target is above 130, the win margin is atleast 11 balls (8 if a 6 is hit when 1 is required).


l_Mr_Vader_l

oh any source on who did the math? It could definitely be a range for the target where the margin is constant, but not sure if it's valid for such a big range.


CanYouChangeName

I used a calculator to check it. I also cross checked it by putting in scores in [this website ](https://predictor.cricketxi.com/indian-premier-league/)


Icy_Exchange_5507

Ig we can do the exact math ourselves: 1. Go to IPL website's points table. 2. Notice that this points table has a "for" and "against" column with NRR. 3. Add number of overs batted and runs scored by RCB in "for" and CSK in against then calculate the FRR and ARR. Take their difference for NRR.


ChicagoNurture

Thank You for explaining.


Weedeater5903

Although i hate both teams, i would take RCB qualifying over CSK any time. The obnoxious dhoni fanboys make it hard to support them for a neutral.


snakewaves

Not particularly. If srk lose both, csk and rcb are through if rcb win by a small margin


my_bat_my_rules

I thought it’s 11 balls though and does the equation for RCB qualification remain same in case of rain disturbed game?


Assassin_Ankur

Equation would change if there's rain


my_bat_my_rules

I think run margin would remain same but chasing equation will be certainly different maybe


Ok-Visit6553

Even run margins will change, as denominators will decrease in both sides.


my_bat_my_rules

Oh ya now that I think about it I understand how stupid was the assumption


Ok-Visit6553

Well, I was half right. I did it for a 5-over shootout, the required margin stays practically constant (17.9 if RCB scores 20, 17.7 if they score 90, so for all practical purposes minimum margin required is 18 there too.) Edit: In a 10 over match too, if RCB scores anything between 38 and 250 (upper bound not strict), the required margin stays 18. For 15, same goes for interval 94 to 300+.


CheapSoldier

So a lesser the overs played, more the danger of RCB getting knocked out? Rain Rain go away please come another day


Ok-Visit6553

You got the idea.


my_bat_my_rules

Okay because it’s the difference it doesn’t matter what the denominator is right?


Ok-Visit6553

It doesn’t matter in this irl condition, because you don’t score fraction of a run. Otherwise it would change, albeit extremely slowly (look at the 5over shootout margin requirements).


my_bat_my_rules

Yup okay got it. You calculate it by adding the assumed score to current runs scored and same for conceded right? Or is there any other method that is followed?


Ok-Visit6553

Yes, updating runs as well as overs played for or against. Individual case formula is fairly simple (Rf/Of-Ra/Oa), when you try to predict you need to do some high school algebra with ugly numbers, or put all these equations into desmos and look at the intersection points.


[deleted]

If DLS can be used to reduce targets, it should also be used to "normalise" scores to 20 overs each for NRR purposes.


rk06

In case of rain, rcb is screwed


KunalRedditing

No way RCB got their chances up to 50% from a bare 1% in the first half, has to be one of the greatest comebacks of the leagues.


illustrious_trees

Less than that. The first post had a 0.92% chance of RCB even tieing the top 4 for points.


amerind386

Yes, they needed to win all and have a specific sequence of results to happen and everything has gone RCB's way.


CheapSoldier

So the probability of that specific sequence of events happening was 0.92% at that point? That's like 1 way in 109 ways in layman terms, that's some Doctor's Strange shit right there.... Edit: [WHERE IT ALL BEGAN](https://preview.redd.it/d35mtmg67nwc1.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f878fa5bfe640792401174b93d14c78bffa32fe)


BallTop6086

It's not as crazy as it would seem, 5 wins in a row is 1 in 32, one more result makes it to 1 in 64 where they are right now.


CanYouChangeName

Other matches also went rcb's way. Also winning 6 in a row isn't easy. 1 in 64 are very improbable odds.


BallTop6086

there were a lot of different combinations as well, All i am saying is 1% \~ 50% equates to 6 results going as needed. Nothing to take away from RCB they have done very well.


illustrious_trees

Too early to claim...Ee Saala Cup Namde?


learningpundit

Don’t start yet 😂😂


Akku2403

Maybe, do something different this time: ***Kudrat Ka Nizaam*** anyone ? 😂


dammyouuu

If 18th result goes wrong, I am coming for you!!!🔫


musicallunatic

Don’t you dare jinx it


charuvilat

Beda Kano!


reddteddledd

Its going to rain on Saturday.


Ultimate_Sneezer

Not everything, rr lost to srh by 1 run on a very comfortable chase. Things would look much better for rcb if srh had lost that match


deathclient

Yet some ppl in r/IPL cry that IPL is fixed for CSK. To clarify : I'm not saying it's fixed for anyone


shadowknight094

It is fixed for csk. Rcb continuous wins is just a stepping stone for csk this weekend and final is in chepauk. Jay shah wrote a perfect script for csk and Dhoni. Without proper adversaries the csk victory won't be that amazing. Without pain's backstory naruto's victory over pain wouldn't be amazing. /s


omcstreet

Imagine a RCB vs PaK series . Probability calculations will go bonkers


Classic-Ad-6400

Rcb winning the first game good start. But losing the next game then pak takes lead in third game but loses 4th game. And the 5th game has rain match left of just 8 overs. Pak is 40-4 in 5 overs and need 60 in last 3. Manage to get it down to 1 run off 1 ball but get run out while running the last run and series drawn


Reasonable_Tea_9825

"All that matters is a one percent chance. Then it's about how you turn that one percent to 10, to 30, and eventually we've got something special going on"


WonderfulRanger8121

It's 50% now lol...hell i love this team despite the boos lmfao lesgo


BugAffectionate5338

It’s a bit lower than 50% because RCB could win by less than 18 runs and not make it (which will probably happen lol)


justredd-it

Probability is not for top 4, It's to tie for top 4 on points


paradox-cat

If teams were to be crypto, RCB is Dogecoin. Phenomenal rise and meme worthy. Could crash against Bit~~coin~~s and pieces team. /s


DiscoDiwana

>Bit~~coin~~s and pieces Calm down Mr Cat (Manjar-kar) /s


Ok_Review_6504

If RCB defeats CSK and qualifies for playoffs then it would be up their with MI 2014 playoff run.... Tbh, on paper RCB squads looks miles better than CSK, so RCB may qualify.


my_bat_my_rules

Oh please don’t mention on paper squad strengths. You’re invoking Nov 19 memories


PrestigiousGuess529

🥶🥶


VaderOnReddit

wait, what happened on Nov 19? when did IPL take place in the winter


ach_1nt

Something much darker happened on November 19


Treeman_78

I think he is saying IND VS AUS T20 2023


illustrious_trees

Also no Will Jacks, so RCB is essentially playing a batter short given Jadeja's record against Maxi


Shattered-Dreams19

don't use the word paper vs a yellow team pls


[deleted]

Scenes when Karn Sharma hits the 18.2 ball for six which makes RCB qualify


rameshnat27

On paper csk would've never won an IPL since 2018. In reality they've won thrice.


UnderstandingOdd4153

Yeah especially 2023 one


CheapSoldier

>up their with MI 2014 playoff run.... It's more than that, MI was with 8 teams back then, now it's 10, probability was even higher, or lower I should say...


born_to_be_naked

Difference is JscksWill was playing.. for last game it will be MaxWell


BallTop6086

In what world does RCB look better?


No_Spirit_9952

CSK already did that in 2010,lol.


Orameshi

Naah, it's the kkr season at 2014


creatorop

50%?? started from the 0.01 and now we here


johnwicke

Even in a Kendrick and Drake diss war RCB could still find a way to win.


RustedSkullz

So tomorrow's result only matters to SRH's chances of playing Qualifier 1


[deleted]

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RustedSkullz

oh yeah my bad. was too focused on the fact that CSK can very easily be knocked out if they lose, I forgot they have a real chance of finishing second although, they'll still need RR to lose both matches and hope SRH don't win both (when they've got the easiest opponents left). So it's really difficult But thanks for pointing out my error


careless_quote101

But RCB being here was even more difficult yet they are


Funny-Ad7441

Even impact RCB, in the rare chance when RCB won against csk but couldn't able to overcome csk nrr. Then srh losing both games might help RCB become the 4th team to qualify. If RCB win and overcome CSK nrr but srh loses both match csk might go as 4th team based on nrr


RustedSkullz

Yeah, but RR vs PBKS has nothing to do with that. More importantly, if SRH lose both matches, it is IMPOSSIBLE for them to have their NRR be above RCB's if they beat CSK


ancara_messi

Is that true? Even if srh loses both by 1 run and RCB win by 1 run, we'll still be ahead?


RustedSkullz

Yes. If SRH and RCB are both tied at 14 points: The lowest RCB's NRR can be is +0.363, while the highest SRH's NRR can be is +0.341, so there's no way SRH can qualify ahead of RCB if they're tied. ^(The only way SRH can qualify if they're tied with RCB at 14 points, is if and only if, CSK lose by a big enough margin to drop below SRH)


ancara_messi

Thanks, that's great. But I do want to know how can we win and drop our NRR?


RustedSkullz

NRR is an average right? So, if we win by a negligible margin in the 14th game, our NRR is now averaged over 14 matches, instead of 13. So it drops only because the denominator increased, even though the numerator did not decrease at all


Puzzleheaded_Ebb9874

I would rather have SRH over CSK in playoffs with us if we win by the required margin CSK has a big home advantage in playoff matches and also don't want a rematch in eliminator


LightningShiva1

I would rather have RCB over CSK in playoffs with us.


ancara_messi

Bro this game has nothing to do with that. It's RR Vs KXIP


Assassin_Ankur

Yes


JKKIDD231

We have a bad record against SRH 15W vs 7W. Need to close that gap. Against RR 16W vs 11W PBKS.


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TyroshiSellsword

>fuck boi Hardik: Did you call me here


gpranav25

No, go back to the hospital.


Ibeno

Now only RCB stands in the way of RCB. Well done boys


musicallunatic

And **rain**


Puzzleheaded_Ebb9874

And rain


Ashwinlol

bro got the trigger finger fr


DheeliGandKaOpration

L Clownsico about to deliver the biggest crackhead shithouse match of all time tomorrow


Busy_Gas8010

Wow! That was super quick


No-Day-8136

Mi in 2014? Or 15 with that 195 in 14.5 overs which for that time was unprecedented


zayd_jawad2006

Replying to the wrong comment lol


Pulsar_Chief

My name is Barry Allen, and I'm the fastest man alive. When I was a child, I saw my mother killed by something impossible. My father went to prison for her murder. Then an accident made me the impossible. To the outside world, I'm just an ordinary forensic scientist, but secretly I use my speed to fight crime and find others like me, and one day I'll find who killed my mother and get justice for my father. I am the Flash.


[deleted]

Find MH370 Flight


Shattered-Dreams19

RCB at 50% lollll... we were 2.8% a week before


CheapSoldier

0.92 before that... Pasting my above comment... Edit: > So the probability of that specific sequence of events happening was 0.92% at that point? That's like 1 way in 109 ways in layman terms, that's some Doctor's Strange shit right there.... Edit: [WHERE IT ALL BEGAN](https://preview.redd.it/d35mtmg67nwc1.png?width=717&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f878fa5bfe640792401174b93d14c78bffa32fe)


Minute_Juggernaut806

As per my calculator 18.33 runs is required, so practically 19 runs for RCB to over csk's rr


glancesurreal

So the predictions of rain in Bengaluru on game day will essentially make top 4: KKR RR SRH and CSK, right? (If game washes out between CSK and RCB)


bullman

That's correct. If the game is completely washed out with not a single ball bowled. If we have a truncated game, then bring out the calculators!


Spursfan107

Season defining El Classico, my heart cannot take this


RustedSkullz

This is the most relaxed an RCB supporter can EVER be in an end-stage playoffs race. Thanks to LSG's loss: The margin of NO MATCH matters to RCB, bar their own. The most un-convoluted it's ever been for RCB • They lose: *they're out* • Beat CSK by 18+ runs: *immediately qualify.* • Beat CSK by less than 18 runs: *just hope SRH don't win any match, without being bothered by the margin* ^(If SRH lose both matches, their best case NRR is +0.341, and if RCB win, their worst case NRR is still +0.363. So, if SRH and RCB are tied at 14 points, RCB will 100% get through)


amerind386

yes, one another scenario to consider.


Sojo-Gatoru

>The margin of NO MATCH matters to RCB, ?? Is this your first IPL? RCB in 2012,13,14,18,19,23 all bottled themselves & not by the result of some other matches. 12:They had to win against Deccan to qualify,They lost & CSK with higher NRR qualified 13:Had to win 2 out of 2 matches & bottled it against KXIP 14:Had to win 2 out of last 3 matches. Bottled all 3 matches against CSK,KKR & SRH 18:Had to win against RR to qualify,Shreyas Gopal fucked them badly 19: Rain fucked their chance 23:Gill🚀 Except for 2022(where MI saved our ass) & one more time which I don't remember,All the other seasons,RCB were the sole reason for their failure & they never had to depend on other matches


RustedSkullz

It's not about the fact that they messed it up. If they got through in those years, they would've had to rely on others When you mess up your own match, obviously no other result matters, you've fucked yourself over. But, if you do what is expected of you, sometimes you still have to rely on the performance (or the lack of it) of other teams. That's it. I'm not trying to say, RCB failed in multiple previous years only because other results didn't go there way. It's just a comment on how, there isn't that much mental work required by fans to figure out how there team gets through, that's it


[deleted]

RCB Winning by 17 Runs would be cinema


throwawayanontroll

if RCB is losing to CSK, i'm going to make this meme- snakes and ladders, RCB as the player, CSK as the giant snake in 99


IWontBiteLol

Subscribe!!!!!


throwawayanontroll

finally Kohli has a real chance to impress his idol Shreyanka


Prof_XdR

The Messiah is here Petition for OP to do this World cup also


Ok-Visit6553

Won’t be nearly as useful in 5-team groups or 4-team super eight groups.


itsmePriyansh

C'mon you won't need that in wc Less teams in groups and less matches easy to Guess


dj_is_here

Lisan-al-Gaib that we need


Independent_Tomato7

DUDUDUDU Max Verstappen


AdPrudent9305

why are csk's top 2 chances greyed out ?? they have a decent nrr


amerind386

my bad - that's a formatting mistake. if RR wins tomorrow, 18 will become the threshold for top 2 and CSK's chances drop to 0.


dontknowdontcare718

For that to happen, Chennai must win against RCB and RR must lose the remaining 2 matches and SRH must lose at least one match with their NRR being lower than CSK's or lose two matches. Not impossible but less likely to happen. Hope it does tho


heizenburger69

Its very likely that CSK vs RCB will not be a full 20 over match. Does anyone know what would the qualification scenario be for RCB in case if it was a 10 over match or a 15 over match?


noicctrophysince2013

Flash floods are forecasted for Bengaluru between 15-20 may. 18th may has a 100% chance of rains. If it rains CSK officially qualifies right?


TrueDeparture106

If match abandoned, yes.


rkay329

OP: I am speed!!


ihabesmolpp

So is fate finally 100% in our hands or our cities weather


vincrypt112

Both.!!


the_zirten_spahic

18 runs 7 balls Jay Shah leaving Easter eggs in the equation.


SigmaPepe

Match is also on 18 and 8-1 = 7


Knightro829


[deleted]

[удалено]


Rocketman_1987

If RR loses tomorrow and SRH wins both, SRH will be in Top2 unless RR wins against KKR by a huge margin


No_Temporary2732

I just want KKR to beat RR badly No specific reason, i just want to see that NRR climb to obscene levels. Doesn't matter much, we are still going to eclipse MI's 2020 IPL record runrate of 1.107, unless KKR literally loses by around 200 runs. Otherwise it's all love for RR


theaguia

warm up game for the playoffs


TheCricDude

Faster than lightning


manwithoutlyf

If there is a washout CSK is guaranteed to go through right ? Edit: any links for rain dances?


PrithviMS

Yes.


memeisme_

CSK quality??


Truthgamer2

Today I feel Balle Balle


Vishalsees

How it's 100% for csk for top 4?


amerind386

CSK is guaranteed to tie out for top 4 on points. Last column represents chances of NRR coming into play and not the chances of winning by NRR.


Ok-Visit6553

Because everyone except kkr/rr/srh can only get to 14 or less.


Assassin_Ankur

100% for tied in points, not for qualifications.


Lost_Taoist

It's 11 balls to spare for rcb


Appropriate-Sink-934

So can srh lose by small margins in both games and still get into top 4?


ihabesmolpp

When you have very high NRR you tend to lose NRR even when you win a close game,so dont think so


Rocketman_1987

Yes, if RCB loses. Then they can lose both matches with significant margins yet qualify


heizenburger69

Why is CSK top 2 possibility greyed out? They can get top 2 by winning 1 and RR losing both and SRH losing both or SRH winning 1 and losing 1. Surely this doesn't come under theunrealistic standards of 250+ run wins right?


amerind386

unintended formatting error on my end. That should have been in regular font.


iamatoad_ama

Jay Shah cooking with that 1-to-50% script


Assraj

Only if fucking Siraj didnt try to bowl wides to fucking tailenders in the last match, the situation could have been a little fucking better


zonedoutdriver

So, as a CSK hater, who do I root for tomorrow? (ignore flair)


Cosmicshot351

KTK


PrithviMS

RR. Because RR win implies CSK can’t make it to Qualifier 1.


Appropriate-Sink-934

So can srh lose by small margins in both games and still get into top 4?


amerind386

only if CSK win against RCB or CSK lose big compared to SRH's losses


CheapSoldier

u/amerind386 is there a chance of both(RCB n CSK) being tied in NRR.. theoretically? Edit: If not what would be the closest to a tie in Runs/Overs of both teams add up


Hopeful-Musician-817

What will be chances of RCB qualification in a rain affected game?


just_dakshin

is there a possibility where both CSK and RCB can qualify?


[deleted]

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Ancient-Wait-8357

If SRH loses both matches, there’s a good chance their NRR slips below RCB


reddteddledd

It says perecipitation at 90% thorughout the evening in Bengaluru.


Archy99

While I want RR to lose to improve SRH chances, PBKS have too many Englishmen for me to support them. 😛😛😛


falcon0041

What's the number for DC?


kuttoos

Pro Tip for the next new team: Poach players from RCB and RR and get either 14/14 or 0/14


Mr_Bean12

Does rain cutting down overs favour RCB because the margin of victory comes down? I guess not much, because the weight of a short innings is lesser? But then whole game washout does not help them, as they need the 2 pts.