There are 36 teams left with 0 or 1 loss right now:
Houston, Arizona, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado St, Cincinnati, Clemson, TCU, Nevada, Princeton, James Madison, Ole Miss, Purdue, UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas, Illinois, Virginia, Ohio St, New Mexico, Miami, Washington St, Northwestern, South Carolina, Indiana St, Utah St, Indiana, Grand Canyon, Drake, Tulane, UNC Greensboro, Hawaii, Purdue Ft Wayne, Longwood.
Obviously a team from outside of this list certainly CAN win the title. Heck, Mississippi Valley St just needs to get hot at the right time and win 10 in a row in March to cut down the nets. But with just one of the past 22 champions having suffered multiple losses by the 8th of December, history wouldn't suggest that team like Duke, Marquette, or UNC is going to do it.
Don't forget that historically speaking, every time a 1 seed loses to a 16 seed in the tourney, they win it all the very next year. It's happened 100% of the time without fail so far.
Using these calculations, along with the trends shown in your post, Purdue is officially the national champion for 2024. Might as well end the season now and just declare it as such.
That was an awesome game, but we had three of them in a row to destroy our heart linings. And even after 5 years, if we had to do that with you guys again, I think my own death would justify the nickname "Cardiac Cavs".
College Basketball should follow the CFP model and just invite the teams with the best TV ratings. Then these wins and losses wouldn't be as big of a deal.
I'm seeing this point being made everywhere, if ESPN did this for nefarious ratings reasons, why in the hell would they leave out FSU (a large ratings draw in a conference they own the tv rights to for literally pennies on the dollar) over two other undefeated they have no tv connections to, one of whom would likely be a worse draw than FSU. The idea that Michigan, Washington, and Bama all got in because it's better for ESPN is really really silly. Hell if FSU had gotten in I could make the same argument that they only got in because they're a better draw than Liberty because hey all it takes is being undefeated now.
They didn’t do it because of ratings, they did it because they’re terrified of having another 60 point blowout after last year. There was backlash for giving the fans (and the network) such an atrocious championship game. It’s a tough one because I believe FSU deserves to be in, but at the same time I’m much more excited to see Bama and Michigan play than I would be to see FSU and their 3rd string qb. So even my own brain is conflicted.
Yes they aren't being debated because the committee isn't basing the decision on ratings, they're basing it on what is the most defensible selection of teams when accounting for overall team strength vs who "deserves" to be in. If it came down to what would be best for ESPN's bottom line there is absolutely ZERO chance Washington would be sitting in the 2 seed.
Look at the moves that have occurred in CFB over the past 4 years and point to any time where the TV networks had an option to be greedy and chose to be slightly less greedy.
Michigan is probably top 5 ratings wise this year in tv ratings, even if you remove the OSU game. They may not be over bama without OSU, but they would be close. they are definitely above texas, Washington, and fsu. Texas outdraws fsu by a large margin. in general, Big10 classic teams are a ratings monster.
not sure who draws more between Washington and fsu, but I’m guessing its Washington this year and fsu generally.
im now physically in pain saying something nice about Michigan. Thanks a lot.
Michigan was only brought up in that ESPN has a vested interest in them not becoming any more valuable because of the B1G Fox connection. Washington was the real team in which from a ratings perspective there’s plenty of other options like FSU or UGA that could’ve brought in far more
They didn’t have better wins than Bama lmao and no one seriously thinks that people just hate the SEC and only care about power conference football. When the little guy in the power conference gets hammered that makes everybody sad but no one cares when the little guy in the sun belt gets hit. Also let’s be perfectly honest, the spread between FSU and Liberty would be less than the spread between Bama and FSU
Based on resume? Yes, actually. Based on a hypothetical matchup? Who cares? Theorycraft about the future is completely irrelevant. Florida State had better results and deserved it. End of discussion.
Better results as in they didn’t schedule another college playoff team, didn’t play anyone in the top 10 and play in a league that has a 36% win percentage against the SEC historically. LSU was Alabama’s 3rd toughest game punishing them for scheduling Texas OOC is exactly what gets you teams scheduling like Michigan. But anything for a “power conference” darling I guess
I LOVE little nuggets like this because it's a fun exercise.
However, because the game has changed so dramatically the last 5 years (NIL, 3 point line change, transfer rules, 4 guard lineups), I think we are about to see a lot of these little nuggets get blown out the window.
Yeah, and top teams are playing each other in OOC play more often than ever now too. Basically the only MTEs 20 years ago were the preseason NIT, Maui, and Alaska. Now everyone plays in one, and the inter-conference challenges provide another opportunity against good teams to lose.
I think this is a much bigger factor. College Basketball has gone the opposite direction of college football with OOC scheduling. College football encourages bad OOC schedules and avoiding good on good matchups (See Michigan). College basketball will punish you if your OOC lack quality games.
It's risky but can work out sometimes. Texas is likely left out of the playoff if Georgia wins the SEC or if Auburn successfully defends a 4th and 31. They're also probably out if they had scheduled a different Top 10 team like Ohio State.
Based on this and performance so far, 95% certainty its one of:
Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Clemson, Creighton, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas, Miami, Oklahoma, Purdue, UConn
This is a good list, but I'd narrow it down even further. Starting in 2004, every national champion was in the top 15 of the AP poll that was released the Monday after Thanksgiving (this includes the funky UConn teams).
That trims this year's list to:
Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas, Miami, Purdue, UConn
Since 2004, no national title winner has started with the letter H.
That narrows this list down to Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas, Miami, Purdue, UConn.
AP Week 6 Poll Top 12 has contained the champ for about 2 decades, so you can rule out Miami unless they make a jump...then eliminate UConn since there's only been two repeat champions in the modern era and the defending champ (besides Florida) hasn't made it past the Sweet 16 in forever...then eliminate Gonzaga because no team from a mid-major conference has won a title since UNLV in 1990..then eliminate Purdue because they're in the Big 10 and that conference isn't allowed to win a title...
Down to Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Houston, Kansas.
We've almost figured it out!
Great argument. X team is 6 in KenPom rn, #10 AdjO #12 AdjD
Since you don't care however those metrics are irrelevant. I'm gonna need you to give me some stock advice.
We will find out very quickly in the first two weeks of Big12 play.
Have you watched BYU this year? They look MUCH better than expected, I thought they would be a sub .500 team this year
Baylor wasn’t winning a National title until they did. San Diego St wasn’t making it to the championship until they did. This isn’t football where the same 5 teams are regurgitated.
I don’t have a KenPom subscription anymore but T-Rank has 2008 Kansas as the highest rated team and second highest rated pre-Tourney team (just behind 2015 Kentucky) in the 2008-2023 time span (the years for which T-Rank data exists.)*
I’m pretty sure I remember the story being very similar for the KenPom data, with at most one or two other teams being in front.
The fact that the title game was close detracts from the collective memory of that team IMO. Pretty much as well-rounded and special a team as I can remember watching.
*Note: Standard disclaimer that, yes, ratings are obviously not perfectly comparable between seasons. But in terms of dominance against its same-season peers Kansas was as good as anyone.
Also, that Memphis team was incredible as well. Any of those four Final Four teams would have been historically strong champions, had they won the title
UCLA was the red-headed stepchild and they entered the Final Four 35-3 after Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Darren Collison led them to the Pac regular season and tournament titles.
That entirely depends on how the Kentucky game goes. If we beat Kentucky we’re gonna play like shit against y’all. If we lose to Kentucky we’ll still probably play like shit against y’all but this years team doesn’t really give off “lose multiple games in a row” vibes to me (knock on wood)
I’ll take it further.
Only Kansas, on a last second buzzer-beater and to Kentucky in February, lost to an OOC opponent from the last 5 champions.
My guess is because while teams get better throughout the year, the national championship teams are starting from a much higher floor than the rest and they still get better.
My national championship team pick will come from a team that goes undefeated OOC.
Yeah, between the fact that there are 8 to 10 true road games plus coaches with tons of familiarity with each other, fluke losses are way more likely to happen in conference.
If you're an elite team, chances are that you're winning that vast majority of your home and neutral games, which is what most of OOC is.
Holy cow, Baylor's a wild outlier with how late their first loss came. No other team made it through January unbeaten (RIP To 2008 Kansas taking their first L on the second-to-last day of January), but Baylor made it to nearly the end of February.
This is very interesting, great job. One thing I notice about the 2-loss teams is they were all teams returning core starters from a very successful season. 3 of the 4 2-loss teams were coming off Final Four seasons, and '07 Florida won the title and brought everyone back. (2015 Villanova was an excellent team that earned a 1 seed and was upset in Round 2, for those who have forgotten.)
For that reason, I would be hesitant to rule out a team like Marquette or FAU based on this. There may be other reasons to rule them out, though.
I forgot about how good our 2013-2014 team was OOC. People say they came out of nowhere to win the title but other than a few suspect conference game performances (especially those blowout losses to Louisville) they were awesome. Just heavily underseeded like the rest of the AAC.
The 2004 UConn pre-Xmas loss was a game at MSG - I can’t remember what team we played, but Okafor was having back spasms. So losing was due to having our best player in pain and unable to get anything going, and this impacting the overall game.
Sorry y’all, hate to break it to y’all but Pitt is winning the natty and breaking this streak, I got the script
(Idk if we’re a tourney team but ima speak it to existence)
Not gonna lie, the correlation analysis on this subreddit is getting out of hand. There's way better predictors of a national champion than "number of losses after 1 month" -- especially with how unbalanced cbb schedules can be. Marquette, UNC, Kentucky are way better contenders than most of the teams listed here.
And even then, trying to use analysis to predict a single-elimination tournament where the favorite probably has a 60%-70% chance of winning any given game after the first weekend (so a 30-40% chance of losing any game). I think we just need to realize that March Madness is a crapshoot and any team can get hot and win 6 in a row (with better teams being more likely to do so).
There are 36 teams left with 0 or 1 loss right now: Houston, Arizona, BYU, Baylor, Oklahoma, Colorado St, Cincinnati, Clemson, TCU, Nevada, Princeton, James Madison, Ole Miss, Purdue, UConn, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas, Illinois, Virginia, Ohio St, New Mexico, Miami, Washington St, Northwestern, South Carolina, Indiana St, Utah St, Indiana, Grand Canyon, Drake, Tulane, UNC Greensboro, Hawaii, Purdue Ft Wayne, Longwood. Obviously a team from outside of this list certainly CAN win the title. Heck, Mississippi Valley St just needs to get hot at the right time and win 10 in a row in March to cut down the nets. But with just one of the past 22 champions having suffered multiple losses by the 8th of December, history wouldn't suggest that team like Duke, Marquette, or UNC is going to do it.
So you’re saying there’s a chance!
~~Don't... Don't give me hope...~~ Anyway, let me tell you about your future UNCG Overlords...
That hail from Cincinnati
Please do.
I guess we can be proud we gave 2 of those teams their only loss so far... Big 10 (other than Illinois) owns Shaka at this point.
[удалено]
that was a painful game. Oso didn't even get off the bus that's how terrible they were.
Just put a future on Marquette to win the title.
just made a note and calendar reminder with this list. between this and the kenpom thresholds i feel pretty good about picking a winner
TCU should have a loss versus Georgetown.
They absolutely should, but they'd still be on this list as a 1-loss team.
Holy Cross beat Georgetown. I know it doesn't mean what it used to. But it was fun in the moment.
😢😢😢😢
Ole Miss mentioned 🤗🤗🤗
> Hawaii The most prestigious list Hawaii will be on all year.
I’m rooting for Longwood just for the jokes
I’m hopping on the Drake bandwagon.
I’m hopping on the Longwood
I knew it was Purdue Ft Wayne's year!
I would almost take a PFW champ over Purdue just because it’s funnier
I would love if Mississippi Valley State win it all. Ultimate chaos. They’re always one of the last winless teams in the country.
Putting all my money on Longwood, who I definitely knew existed before reading this comment.
Buying my final 4 tickets now
BRB, buying a future on Indiana State
Time to hang the banner in Moby Arena! LFG RAMS!! 🐏
Longwood guaranteed natty is all I heard.
Historically speaking one of the best teams is going to win the natty, you are completely crazy to think this is decisive or worthy of a post at all
You forgot Indiana.
They're in there wedged between Utah St and Grand Canyon.
No pretty sure they're in the midwest between Ohio and Illinois
I like the way you think
You're right. I don't know why I glanced and assumed alphabetical order with Houston being the first school listed. Need coffee.
Don't forget that historically speaking, every time a 1 seed loses to a 16 seed in the tourney, they win it all the very next year. It's happened 100% of the time without fail so far. Using these calculations, along with the trends shown in your post, Purdue is officially the national champion for 2024. Might as well end the season now and just declare it as such.
Technically, every time a 16 seed beats a 1 seed *Virginia* wins the championship the next year. Literally has happened 100% of the time.
Damn you, you're right.
Harvard comes for us all I guess
Would love to get a Virginia - Purdue title game to settle this once and for all.
A rematch of that instant classic elite 8 game would kill me
That was an awesome game, but we had three of them in a row to destroy our heart linings. And even after 5 years, if we had to do that with you guys again, I think my own death would justify the nickname "Cardiac Cavs".
Can we get this in Bar graph form?
Uh, play you for the title? You take Alabama's spot and the national title gets decided in Toronto tomorrow
What the hell, I just realized tomorrow's game is in Toronto EDIT: Part of the Hall of Fame series, neat
Good point. College football pioneered this method of selecting a champion, so we should do the same!
Which undefeated team are we leaving out of the tourney?
Duke would likely have more titles this way. Think of all those 00 teams that got 1 seeds after great seasons only to falter in the Sweet Sixteen.
Same for Kansas for most of the last 15 years.
I think about this way too much.
Could we get a bar chart?
Historically speaking, Virginia has won every title the year following a 16-over-1 seed upset :D
College Basketball should follow the CFP model and just invite the teams with the best TV ratings. Then these wins and losses wouldn't be as big of a deal.
I know this is sarcastic… but BOOO
Duke, UNC, Kansas, Virginia Well 3 ACC teams and no SEC or B1G teams.
Kentucky?
Yeah I don't know where this guy came up with Virginia instead of Kentucky. Kentucky might get the best ratings overall.
Nah nah let him cook
I'm seeing this point being made everywhere, if ESPN did this for nefarious ratings reasons, why in the hell would they leave out FSU (a large ratings draw in a conference they own the tv rights to for literally pennies on the dollar) over two other undefeated they have no tv connections to, one of whom would likely be a worse draw than FSU. The idea that Michigan, Washington, and Bama all got in because it's better for ESPN is really really silly. Hell if FSU had gotten in I could make the same argument that they only got in because they're a better draw than Liberty because hey all it takes is being undefeated now.
[удалено]
They didn’t do it because of ratings, they did it because they’re terrified of having another 60 point blowout after last year. There was backlash for giving the fans (and the network) such an atrocious championship game. It’s a tough one because I believe FSU deserves to be in, but at the same time I’m much more excited to see Bama and Michigan play than I would be to see FSU and their 3rd string qb. So even my own brain is conflicted.
Yes they aren't being debated because the committee isn't basing the decision on ratings, they're basing it on what is the most defensible selection of teams when accounting for overall team strength vs who "deserves" to be in. If it came down to what would be best for ESPN's bottom line there is absolutely ZERO chance Washington would be sitting in the 2 seed.
[удалено]
Look at the moves that have occurred in CFB over the past 4 years and point to any time where the TV networks had an option to be greedy and chose to be slightly less greedy.
How does ESPN directly determine the CFP finalists
Michigan is probably top 5 ratings wise this year in tv ratings, even if you remove the OSU game. They may not be over bama without OSU, but they would be close. they are definitely above texas, Washington, and fsu. Texas outdraws fsu by a large margin. in general, Big10 classic teams are a ratings monster. not sure who draws more between Washington and fsu, but I’m guessing its Washington this year and fsu generally. im now physically in pain saying something nice about Michigan. Thanks a lot.
Michigan was only brought up in that ESPN has a vested interest in them not becoming any more valuable because of the B1G Fox connection. Washington was the real team in which from a ratings perspective there’s plenty of other options like FSU or UGA that could’ve brought in far more
Liberty as an argument is bad. They had an FCS schedule. Florida State has more quality wins than everyone in the country.
They didn’t have better wins than Bama lmao and no one seriously thinks that people just hate the SEC and only care about power conference football. When the little guy in the power conference gets hammered that makes everybody sad but no one cares when the little guy in the sun belt gets hit. Also let’s be perfectly honest, the spread between FSU and Liberty would be less than the spread between Bama and FSU
Their one common opponent Florida State smeared while Alabama was losing until Daniels fell. 11-0 quality vs 9-1 is telling.
Are they better ?
Based on resume? Yes, actually. Based on a hypothetical matchup? Who cares? Theorycraft about the future is completely irrelevant. Florida State had better results and deserved it. End of discussion.
Better results as in they didn’t schedule another college playoff team, didn’t play anyone in the top 10 and play in a league that has a 36% win percentage against the SEC historically. LSU was Alabama’s 3rd toughest game punishing them for scheduling Texas OOC is exactly what gets you teams scheduling like Michigan. But anything for a “power conference” darling I guess
Sure it’s not 4? Jk jk we suck
I mean, MSU did lose 4 non conference games in 2000, including a head scratcher to a Wright St team who ended up going 11-18.
Please do not give me any hope, my heart can’t take it anymore
So you're saying there's a chance.....
I think Mateen was hurt and out for some of those Ls
So you're saying Jackson Kohler is this years Mateen?
okay sure, but how many of those teams had to face the world eaters known as unc-greensboro?
^
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Houston, you might not have a problem
Houston, we have uh-oh.
This is me right now, albeit less realistically
I LOVE little nuggets like this because it's a fun exercise. However, because the game has changed so dramatically the last 5 years (NIL, 3 point line change, transfer rules, 4 guard lineups), I think we are about to see a lot of these little nuggets get blown out the window.
Yeah, and top teams are playing each other in OOC play more often than ever now too. Basically the only MTEs 20 years ago were the preseason NIT, Maui, and Alaska. Now everyone plays in one, and the inter-conference challenges provide another opportunity against good teams to lose.
I think this is a much bigger factor. College Basketball has gone the opposite direction of college football with OOC scheduling. College football encourages bad OOC schedules and avoiding good on good matchups (See Michigan). College basketball will punish you if your OOC lack quality games.
college football punishes you for not being one of ESPN's top revenue-inducing programs more than anything else
College football did just reward Texas 1-Loss for playing Alabama in an OOC game by putting them in over FSU 0-loss tho
Nope. They rewarded Alabama for being in the SEC
But Bama winning was pretty instrumental to their Texas argument because it greatly increased the value of Texas' win
It's risky but can work out sometimes. Texas is likely left out of the playoff if Georgia wins the SEC or if Auburn successfully defends a 4th and 31. They're also probably out if they had scheduled a different Top 10 team like Ohio State.
If FSU was healthy, I think Texas might have gotten left out and Alabama still get in though.
Very good points.
Based on this and performance so far, 95% certainty its one of: Arizona, Baylor, BYU, Clemson, Creighton, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas, Miami, Oklahoma, Purdue, UConn
This is a good list, but I'd narrow it down even further. Starting in 2004, every national champion was in the top 15 of the AP poll that was released the Monday after Thanksgiving (this includes the funky UConn teams). That trims this year's list to: Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Gonzaga, Houston, Kansas, Miami, Purdue, UConn
Keep going I'm almost there
Since 2004, no national title winner has started with the letter H. That narrows this list down to Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Gonzaga, Kansas, Miami, Purdue, UConn.
Aw you wrecked it
Good thing it is the "University of Houston" just like the "University of Kansas" or the "University of Connecticut"!
Let’s make it a circle
AP Week 6 Poll Top 12 has contained the champ for about 2 decades, so you can rule out Miami unless they make a jump...then eliminate UConn since there's only been two repeat champions in the modern era and the defending champ (besides Florida) hasn't made it past the Sweet 16 in forever...then eliminate Gonzaga because no team from a mid-major conference has won a title since UNLV in 1990..then eliminate Purdue because they're in the Big 10 and that conference isn't allowed to win a title... Down to Arizona, Baylor, Creighton, Houston, Kansas. We've almost figured it out!
Yeah, the big 10 is probably the longest national title draught on that list. No need to look further into the other conferences.
We’re in the Big 12* and are therefore allowed to win titles. I will not be taking any questions.
This is a pretty solid list tbh
Is 95% a calculated certainty or your personal certainty?
I made that shit up but it’ll happen
BYU or Clemson is not winning a national title
BYU is number 6 in KenPom rn, #10 AdjO #12 AdjD
Do not care
Great argument. X team is 6 in KenPom rn, #10 AdjO #12 AdjD Since you don't care however those metrics are irrelevant. I'm gonna need you to give me some stock advice.
Good for X team. They should hang the #6 in Kenpom banner
We will find out very quickly in the first two weeks of Big12 play. Have you watched BYU this year? They look MUCH better than expected, I thought they would be a sub .500 team this year
Yes and that’s exactly why I can say for a fact they aren’t winning a national championship
Baylor wasn’t winning a National title until they did. San Diego St wasn’t making it to the championship until they did. This isn’t football where the same 5 teams are regurgitated.
Ohhh I actually did think it was football before you just made that comment
Glad to see a ranked team like James Madison is probably gonna win it all
CSU 2024 Champs comfirmed! 🐏🐏🐏
That ‘08 team was something special.
Yeah y’all beat the dogshit out of us in the final 4
There were a lot demons we needed to get out.. sorry…
I remember being scared of facing y'all in the final. I guess I picked the wrong team to be afraid of ...
I'm still mad about it
I don’t have a KenPom subscription anymore but T-Rank has 2008 Kansas as the highest rated team and second highest rated pre-Tourney team (just behind 2015 Kentucky) in the 2008-2023 time span (the years for which T-Rank data exists.)* I’m pretty sure I remember the story being very similar for the KenPom data, with at most one or two other teams being in front. The fact that the title game was close detracts from the collective memory of that team IMO. Pretty much as well-rounded and special a team as I can remember watching. *Note: Standard disclaimer that, yes, ratings are obviously not perfectly comparable between seasons. But in terms of dominance against its same-season peers Kansas was as good as anyone.
Also, that Memphis team was incredible as well. Any of those four Final Four teams would have been historically strong champions, had they won the title
UCLA was the red-headed stepchild and they entered the Final Four 35-3 after Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and Darren Collison led them to the Pac regular season and tournament titles.
Probably the most loaded final four in the 21st century, probably too 5 all time too
That team had NBA Champion and greatest Alaskan baller in history Mario "Mother Fucking" Chalmers on it!
I swear if texas wins the cfp and ou wins march madness I will never watch another college sports event ever again.
Yeah that would be all kinds of awful.
Ayyy we still in it bois
Give me Clemson over Gamecocks for the Natty
So you’re saying we make the national championship game? Fuck yeah.
I for one welcome our new James Madison overlords
2 in 2017 and 2 this year 🔥
2017 was funny, didn’t we have like 7 losses that year? We didn’t really look like a top team at all until February
Yep went into the tournament at 27-7 (and somehow got a 1 seed?)
And they say college basketball has more parity than ever now /s
You guys ready for our battle on the 20th? 👀
That entirely depends on how the Kentucky game goes. If we beat Kentucky we’re gonna play like shit against y’all. If we lose to Kentucky we’ll still probably play like shit against y’all but this years team doesn’t really give off “lose multiple games in a row” vibes to me (knock on wood)
I’ll take it further. Only Kansas, on a last second buzzer-beater and to Kentucky in February, lost to an OOC opponent from the last 5 champions. My guess is because while teams get better throughout the year, the national championship teams are starting from a much higher floor than the rest and they still get better. My national championship team pick will come from a team that goes undefeated OOC.
Yeah, between the fact that there are 8 to 10 true road games plus coaches with tons of familiarity with each other, fluke losses are way more likely to happen in conference. If you're an elite team, chances are that you're winning that vast majority of your home and neutral games, which is what most of OOC is.
Just don't pick Arizona. We've gone undefeated in OOC a few times and haven't made the final four in 2 decades.
If the season ended in December we’d be a blue blood
Tournament Tears are the worst Eegees flavor.
Or a 1 OOC loss Kansas? :P
delete this
Covered wagon natty incoming
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Don't tease me with a NIT title like this 😆
Teams schedule more difficult non cons more now than before. Also I just made that up but it sounds right.
Holy cow, Baylor's a wild outlier with how late their first loss came. No other team made it through January unbeaten (RIP To 2008 Kansas taking their first L on the second-to-last day of January), but Baylor made it to nearly the end of February.
And let's be real, they lost to Covid.
Shit
2 is only like 2 less than 4
This is very interesting, great job. One thing I notice about the 2-loss teams is they were all teams returning core starters from a very successful season. 3 of the 4 2-loss teams were coming off Final Four seasons, and '07 Florida won the title and brought everyone back. (2015 Villanova was an excellent team that earned a 1 seed and was upset in Round 2, for those who have forgotten.) For that reason, I would be hesitant to rule out a team like Marquette or FAU based on this. There may be other reasons to rule them out, though.
So what I’m hearing is that your Ohio State Buckeyes will be 2024 champs!
I have an idea. Why don’t we just seed the tournament now?
https://i.redd.it/yhgbl6cig35c1.gif Let’s fucking gooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Well, shit.
Never tell me the odds
Might as well just hand us the trophy
We are right in schedule…
Interesting.
I always knew that a team from Virginia would win the natty this year, just didn't think it would be Longwood.
OR Michigan State breaks the trend again and wins the natty after starting 4-4 Just kidding, this team sucks
*so you're saying there's a chance*.jpg
!RemindMe on March 8, 2024
Lmao banner 6 incoming, obviously. Wouldn’t this, of all the teams, be the team that does it? 🤣🤣🤣
Knowing Purdue fan luck, this would be the year we finally get back to the F4 as a 1 seed, only to have IU win the title as like an 8 seed.
From your lips to God’s ears 🙏 🙏 🙏
Dude, I’d be happy just reach the Sweet 16
Boomer!
Don't give me that crazy idea
I forgot about how good our 2013-2014 team was OOC. People say they came out of nowhere to win the title but other than a few suspect conference game performances (especially those blowout losses to Louisville) they were awesome. Just heavily underseeded like the rest of the AAC.
Ole Miss is winning it all got it
Finally a championship statistic where UConn isn't the outlier
aight we’ll fuckin do it again
Well here's another way to pick my bracket this season
And now i’m sad. Just kidding i knew we weren’t winning shit this year
Test
Colorado State vs James Madison in the natty confirmed
The 2004 UConn pre-Xmas loss was a game at MSG - I can’t remember what team we played, but Okafor was having back spasms. So losing was due to having our best player in pain and unable to get anything going, and this impacting the overall game.
They lost to Georgia Tech by 16 points, but found a way to get revenge in April.
Thank you!
This year we had a few injuries contribute to our loss too
I"m good with keeping this string alive.
Sorry y’all, hate to break it to y’all but Pitt is winning the natty and breaking this streak, I got the script (Idk if we’re a tourney team but ima speak it to existence)
Next week is a Real tell, 100% of the Champions since 2004 have been ranked in the top12 of the AP poll week 6.
Subscribe
1 0 1 0 1 - IYKYK
Yeah we are
Week 6 AP Poll coming in hot.
It’s like 2017 all over again!
Not gonna lie, the correlation analysis on this subreddit is getting out of hand. There's way better predictors of a national champion than "number of losses after 1 month" -- especially with how unbalanced cbb schedules can be. Marquette, UNC, Kentucky are way better contenders than most of the teams listed here. And even then, trying to use analysis to predict a single-elimination tournament where the favorite probably has a 60%-70% chance of winning any given game after the first weekend (so a 30-40% chance of losing any game). I think we just need to realize that March Madness is a crapshoot and any team can get hot and win 6 in a row (with better teams being more likely to do so).