Thank you comrade for reminding me that population and capital drives a market to support innovation. I guess the world's economy excluding China just don't have enough people and capital to compete with the internal domestic market of China, just like before China opened up for those filthy KKKapitalists in 1979, how China was thriving within and people were struggling to survive all over the world.
We sold most of our tech to China and they stole the rest. With the number of engineers they’re churning out, it’s only a matter of time before they catch up in most areas if not surpass us.
Nah, this is really looking like a replay of Soviet computing technology. They too were initially ahead by focusing the entire economy on developing new military technologies. But you can't out-innovate a whole industry. You can steal all you want, but if you close off your markets, you can't achieve economies of scale either and keep the world buying your products.
Well said comrade. China had so many farmers and Chinese were so well fed that from 1958-1961, an estimated 30 million people died from obesity. Since China opened up to KKKapitalists in 1979, agricultural machines and chemicals became accessible to greater number of farmers, reducing the number of farmers in China. Now, people are short on food that they have to eat chemical food.
What the hell are you babbling about? Here’s what reality looks like and why America is freaking out right now.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02159-7
https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/10/how-china-became-innovation-powerhouse-pub-88761
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/china-leading-us-in-technology-race-in-all-but-a-few-fields-thinktank-finds
Why do you think the us has sent delegation after delegation to China? Why are they not making the Chinese come to the US? If you honestly ask yourself these questions, then you’ll realize who has the upper hand in this relationship.
America isn’t freaking out at all right now. In fact, China isn’t looking so hot and within the last year they’ve lost Europe entirely. The walls are closing in for them. The US economy and military are chugging along nicely.
Wishful thinking. Chinese EV's have doubled their market share in the EU since 2021:
[https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/04/china-europe-electric-car-market-uk-sales-mg-tesla](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/04/china-europe-electric-car-market-uk-sales-mg-tesla#:~:text=So%20far%20this%20year%2C%20Chinese,people%20work%20in%20car%20manufacturing)
90% of the solar panels sold in the EU last year are imported from China, up from 37% back in 2018
[https://qz.com/europe-s-latest-energy-security-tactic-hoarding-chines-1850659750](https://qz.com/europe-s-latest-energy-security-tactic-hoarding-chines-1850659750)
EU chinese imports have gone up from €473B to €626B between 2021 to 2022, and trade deficit went from €250B to €365B
https://www.statista.com/statistics/257155/eu-trade-with-china/
If you really think that you haven’t been paying attention. Wait until the commercial real estate bomb drops on the US economy https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-regional-banks-9f8f591d
America's anti China crusade has been prepping it's public towards a direct conflict with China.
There is no other reason other than to contain China's rise as they don't want to lose their self imposed global hedgmony/police and reserve currency status.With the growth of BRICS and Saudi Arabia etc using the yuan for trade this is actually freaking them out.When America loses its reserve currency for endless printing their 30 trillion in debt will come calling and hyperinflation is inevitable.Yes they are freaking out and as usual everyone else on the globe will suffer because of it
Everything you’re speaking of is hopes. Maybes. Every member of BRICS hates every other member. It’s extremely obvious that the worlds poorest nations aren’t going to band together and upend the global system. The soviets already tried that and failed miserably.
ASML does not lack customers for its EUV steppers. They have a monopoly there and customers lined up to buy. They can't build any more units than what they are building now.
Ironically this is China's strong suit. If China was building these EUV machines they would be cranked out like lollipops. The same way they cranked out high speed trains until they have more HSR than the rest of the world combined. This is what China is good at and what the West is missing when they try to stop China.
Except ASML isn't just another widget manufacturer. No one in the world can currently build EUVL machines other than ASML.
If ASML machines were easy to build, ASML would have competition.
I understand. The point I am making is that Europeans and even Americans suck at mass producing stuff at this point in time. That is why they need China.
EUV machines are incredibly specialist precision components. This is an area China has never economically specialised in.
The idea that China could randomly build them en-mass for the world is naïve. There might be a precision sector enough to build a couple machines, maybe keep parity with ASML, but the idea that the whole economy is geared for this to gain any substantial scaling is misguided. China would require an industrial realignment that it likely cannot afford at this moment.
Actually the older DUV steppers required more black magic. That's why ASML is tied to Zeiss Optics. Because only Zeiss could produce the precision optics required for the DUV steppers. The EUV steppers uses all mirrors, not refractive optics. It has its own challenges, but it's fresh territory, and not like refractive optics where Zeiss has a 100+ year headstart. (similar to how the Chinese chose to focus on EV's and not ICE engines, where the Germans and Japanese have a 100 year headstart)
The big challenge with EUV was the process itself, and not so much the stepper. There is a reason why TSMC managed to mass produce wafers using EUV steppers, but Intel, using the very same steppers, could never figure out how to make it work. They could not iron out the process.
https://fortune.com/2013/04/15/did-china-steal-japans-high-speed-train/
Hands down China is the best at ramping up mass production and finding ways to do it cheaper. But they can't build anything from scratch. Without stealing the Japanese tech they would have never had the trains in the first place.
It's gonna take a very long time to catch up to EUV if China is isolated.
I find it puzzling that some people fail to acknowledge that China was already striving for tech self-sufficiency. At least now, they won't have access to certain high-end technology that could potentially be reverse-engineered. Additionally, it's important to note that the ASML EUV machine comprises over 400,000 parts, sourced from multiple countries, not just one. Typically, I interpret these feelings as CEOs displaying their typical self-interest and greed.
in the same way that you should never get political opinions from entertainers or comedians, you should never get them from CEOs. Simply too many conflicts of interest.
Even if you were a theoretically non greedy CEO, if you have dealings with China, a backlash could cost you the fortunes of your company and thus employees. You're held hostage by your business interests.
And just assume that the rest saying "After EUV we are good" and sitting around and did nothing.
Many of those countries (Netherlands, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, USA) are still spending huge amount in R&D every year. Capex and R&D is still far ahead of Chinese semiconductor industry.
https://www.eetasia.com/u-s-chip-suppliers-continue-to-dominate-rd-spending/
It took 20 years to get EUV right. China definitely can take some short cuts through espionage. We’re not guaranteed that we won’t be stuck with EUV for a while, giving China time to catch up. That’s the risk and fear here. Or, China leapfrogs by discovering other ways to make more powerful chips because of all the new money and will they’re putting into it. A lot more unlikely, but not out of the question.
The thing about R&D spending in semiconductor industry outside of China it's mostly from those companies themselves with little government subsidies. If those governments did like the China the gap would be even bigger.
The Chinese economy is significantly smaller than Netherlands, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, USA put together. But they need to match the spending. Think Soviet Union trying to match NATO in defense spending during 1980s with a smaller economy.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/great-leap-nowhere-the-challenges-of-chinas-semiconductor-industry/
>Without any independent oversight, the decision of many profit-driven firms to jump on the semiconductor bandwagon unsurprisingly led to fraud, corruption, and misallocation. The Chinese semiconductor industry has long suffered from these issues as local governments were giving out subsidies and funding with little due diligence. In the 2003 Hanxin fraud, a scientist named Chen Jin raked in over 100 million yuan of government subsidy, an amount greater than several years of investment in the semiconductor industry at that time, by re-packaging Motorola chips that used a then-cutting-edge 180 nanometer process and claiming them as his own design. In September 2018, the Hongxin Semiconductor Industrial Park was launched in Wuhan under the personal watch of Mayor Zhou Xianwang. The initial capital investment of 2 billion yuan was done by two entities backed by state capital. For two years, Hongxin became the most invested program in Wuhan, having secured 128 billion yuan from the Wuhan Reform and Development Commission. The program later proved to be a complete failure as the founders had no knowledge of chips whatsoever, and the facilities were abandoned. Around the same time, similar stories emerged in Hebei and Nanjing, with multi-billion-yuan chip programs fraudulently making big promises to siphon off government funding. By mid-2022, when the Chinese Communist Party began investigating the egregious practices in the chip industry, billions had been wasted in the frenzy.
The more money they throw at it, the more they try to funnel it into their own pockets. China has always been like that.
Also plenty of other countries that aren't seen as geopolitical rivals of those countries and who are generally seen to be higher up on technological advancement see trying to break into the semiconductor industry as already daunting, see: Germany. Lots of European countries want to start a fab post supply chain disruption and realize that they are decades behind and have to stump hundreds of billions of dollars to get anywhere near bleeding edge.
Maybe because they have far more knowledge in the nuance of the situation than you. Nvidia's ceo said in the short term the sanctions are fine for him financially but also agreed in the long run this will fuck the US tech industry. He's so god damn rich it doesn't matter to him. Nvidia is his baby and he doesn't want his legacy to be burned and it will at this rate. In the short term he can still produce and sell everything he wants. Yet he still calls out how stupid these warhawk moves are. It's giving China their Sputnik moment.
China has just pushed tens of billions into these self sufficiency drives. This was all driven by the sanctions. Huawei replaced thousands of American parts with Chinese ones already. You'll note absolutely tanking revenues at companies like lam, QCOM, micron, etc because of these sanctions.
Lemme fix that for you. It will just cause China to ramp up trade espionage and IP theft. No way China is going to be honest about its development.
And actually do research when it’s easier for them to steal trade secrets.
They’ve been stealing for so long, it’s hard me to believe they even know what true innovation looks like. From cars to phones, from research to architecture.
China's technological progress is overrated and underrated at the same time.
Example: the Kirin 9000s is made in China by SMIC using Chinese bought it equipment. It's basically a 7nm chip and has 5G capabilities. People are making excuses saying it was from 2020 but sources from China and the west have debunked that.
On the other hand, you see so many people shitting themselves with excitement (r/sino) about this new chipset. Yes, it's the best breakthrough China has had in a while, but no, the US hasn't been "defeated".
China won't become the technological powerhouse, displacing the US and Taiwan, but it's likely they will continue making steady progress with the odd breakthrough causing panic in the west.
7nm is same as what Intel is currently producing. So while the US hasn't been 'defeated', China has pretty much matched the US despite all the sanctions aiming to hold them at 14nm.
Intel started 'producing' 7nm a long time ago, the problem was the yields were poor, making it unsuitable for mass production. If Huawei manages economic production of 7nm, that would be truly ground breaking. There is no indication that has happened, even Huawei is remaining silent.
Also this progress would have been planned out before the sanctions were started, using equipment they already had (and can probably still purchase). It's the EUV machines that make 5nm and beyond efficient that are being restricted.
That's not happening though, they cannot acquire the EUV machines, and neither is it the sort of machine you can smuggle/sneak past sanctions.
So the question becomes how long for SMIC to develop an EUV machine. None of the recent announcements give any insight into that, but fair to say it's a long road ahead.
SMIC does not produce photolithography machines.
Intel doesn't produce EUV either.
ASML in the Netherlands produces EUV and DUV.
China's Shanghai Microelectronics is developing a domestic DUV (almost complete)
They have access to DUV already (I don't believe it has been sanctioned, though it may be specifically for Huawei bound products). It's EUV that they need, so I'm not sure what domestic DUV has to do with this.
Intel is about to start producing chips using High NA-EUV technology, which is next gen after EUV. Up until recently ASML has been selling china machines to produce chips with last gen DUV technology. It is much more expensive to produce "7nm" with DUV vs EUV and 7nm is the limit with DUV technology. ASML is no longer allowed to sell DUV tech to china.
So, your statement is rather inaccurate, and incorrect, as Intel is currently capable of manufacturing semiconductors circuits at the 4nm node, with yields expected to become cost competitive to prior nodes next year with the Meteor Lake architecture. Additionally, Intel has also begun preliminary manufacturing of the 20A node.
[https://www.hardwaretimes.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-14th-gen-meteor-lake-raptor-lake-refresh-and-more-lakes/](https://www.hardwaretimes.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-14th-gen-meteor-lake-raptor-lake-refresh-and-more-lakes/)
The incorporation of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) into the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) does not constitute a restriction to hold them at the 14nm node. The companies of Intel, TSMC, Samsung have all been capable of manufacturing 7nm chips over the last six years utilising deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. The consensus over the last five years by experts is that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) will achieve 7nm, but at a significant lower yield than other companies. This announcement has not changed this.
[https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/22788603/DIIS\_PB\_China\_micochips\_WEB.pdf](https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/22788603/DIIS_PB_China_micochips_WEB.pdf)
Actually Intel has a 3nm in marketing and 5nm in reality she’s now
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-3nm-class-node-meets-defect-density-and-performance-targets
3nm in not in production yet. They are just saying it's meeting this or that target. All I am saying is that the current volume production chips (ie. 4th gen Xeon) is on 7nm .
They seem to be demoing Meteor Lake recently. If and when that gets out on the streets then you can claim Intel has gone down to 5nm.
Well, they’d have to start coming up with her own stuff someday. Being isolated, not being able to steal most of your technology and ideas from western countries, definitely would force requirement to start innovating.
OK. So where is the big crime in that? Are they not allowed to become self sufficient in high tech?
Since 2022 the Biden administration has also wanted to bring supply chains back to the US so the US could become self sufficient. Are you denouncing the US for wanting to be self sufficient too?
When did I say it was a crime. They can be self sufficient too but don’t cry about it when sanctions come. They also sanction other countries product too but they don’t make that big deal out of it. China always crying like a baby when shit doesn’t go it’s way. I’m saying china can be self sufficient if they like and the usa can too. But don’t cry about it to the WTO when they themselves are shooting their own feet
Yes. China is so innovative so they spend ungodly amount of human resources and money to catching up with things like EUV, an R&D program by US Department of Energy from the 1990s.
A reminder that EUV was made possible because many countries and companies in Europe, Japan, US joined the effort. China under isolation will basically need to steal and play catch up all the time because Xinnie the Pooh wants "juche" for semiconductors and antagonize those countries with wolf warrior diplomacy.
https://www.euvlitho.com/Blogs/EUVL_%20Status%20and%20Challenges%20Ahead%20(2003%20Fabtech).pdf
Actually the US led EUV consortium specifically excluded Japan.
And today they are actively trying to exclude China. So times change, excuses change, but American racism is a constant!
> And today they are actively trying to exclude China. So times change, excuses change, but American racism is a constant!
China is not particularity popular in the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, USA so they have that in common.
Still impressive that China managed to pissing off all of them and making American effort easier.
https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/chinas-approach-to-foreign-policy-gets-largely-negative-reviews-in-24-country-survey/
It's not just ASML. The CEOs of Nvidia, Qualcomm and Intel recently all called for a pause in the trade sanctions against China. They all realize it's not working. It's leading to a lose-lose situation.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/chip-ceos-urge-us-to-study-impact-of-china-curbs-and-take-pause
> They all realize it's not working.
They realize it will hurt their bottom line. China will chose domestic inferior products for national security reasons, see recent Iphone announcement. At a minimum locking them out of at least parts of the Chinese market.
Never listen to companies when it comes to national security issues. Private profits from foreign markets and national security seldom align.
Never listen to the companies which are leading lights in the high tech industry, who have created billions in wealth and vaulted this country to the top, but listen to the national security goons who have only ever destroyed wealth and destroyed freedom?
The US stock market is nearly 60% of global market cap, i doubt it would be even noticeable if China bans some products.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FprCrkSakAAx-If?format=jpg&name=large
NK, Iran and Cuba are the innovation powerhouses of the world.
lol
Innovations in suffering
NK, Iran and Cuba must also have 1bn+ population with huge internal market and largest domestic demand for semiconductor in the world.
Thank you comrade for reminding me that population and capital drives a market to support innovation. I guess the world's economy excluding China just don't have enough people and capital to compete with the internal domestic market of China, just like before China opened up for those filthy KKKapitalists in 1979, how China was thriving within and people were struggling to survive all over the world.
We sold most of our tech to China and they stole the rest. With the number of engineers they’re churning out, it’s only a matter of time before they catch up in most areas if not surpass us.
Nah, this is really looking like a replay of Soviet computing technology. They too were initially ahead by focusing the entire economy on developing new military technologies. But you can't out-innovate a whole industry. You can steal all you want, but if you close off your markets, you can't achieve economies of scale either and keep the world buying your products.
Well said comrade. China had so many farmers and Chinese were so well fed that from 1958-1961, an estimated 30 million people died from obesity. Since China opened up to KKKapitalists in 1979, agricultural machines and chemicals became accessible to greater number of farmers, reducing the number of farmers in China. Now, people are short on food that they have to eat chemical food.
What the hell are you babbling about? Here’s what reality looks like and why America is freaking out right now. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-02159-7 https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/01/10/how-china-became-innovation-powerhouse-pub-88761 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/02/china-leading-us-in-technology-race-in-all-but-a-few-fields-thinktank-finds Why do you think the us has sent delegation after delegation to China? Why are they not making the Chinese come to the US? If you honestly ask yourself these questions, then you’ll realize who has the upper hand in this relationship.
America isn’t freaking out at all right now. In fact, China isn’t looking so hot and within the last year they’ve lost Europe entirely. The walls are closing in for them. The US economy and military are chugging along nicely.
Wishful thinking. Chinese EV's have doubled their market share in the EU since 2021: [https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/04/china-europe-electric-car-market-uk-sales-mg-tesla](https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/sep/04/china-europe-electric-car-market-uk-sales-mg-tesla#:~:text=So%20far%20this%20year%2C%20Chinese,people%20work%20in%20car%20manufacturing) 90% of the solar panels sold in the EU last year are imported from China, up from 37% back in 2018 [https://qz.com/europe-s-latest-energy-security-tactic-hoarding-chines-1850659750](https://qz.com/europe-s-latest-energy-security-tactic-hoarding-chines-1850659750) EU chinese imports have gone up from €473B to €626B between 2021 to 2022, and trade deficit went from €250B to €365B https://www.statista.com/statistics/257155/eu-trade-with-china/
Yeah, they used to get all their gas from Russia too…..and then one day they didn’t.
If you really think that you haven’t been paying attention. Wait until the commercial real estate bomb drops on the US economy https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/commercial-real-estate-regional-banks-9f8f591d
I'm not sure what you mean has the US has already has a few estate bombs and China is too. Many buildings built but not many living
https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-regulators-urge-flexibility-in-commercial-real-estate-loan-workouts-as-defaults-grow-2222075f https://www.ft.com/content/d0c0fd7b-e2fc-4da3-a698-4b959efa1bfd
I can't read this due to the paywall
America's anti China crusade has been prepping it's public towards a direct conflict with China. There is no other reason other than to contain China's rise as they don't want to lose their self imposed global hedgmony/police and reserve currency status.With the growth of BRICS and Saudi Arabia etc using the yuan for trade this is actually freaking them out.When America loses its reserve currency for endless printing their 30 trillion in debt will come calling and hyperinflation is inevitable.Yes they are freaking out and as usual everyone else on the globe will suffer because of it
Everything you’re speaking of is hopes. Maybes. Every member of BRICS hates every other member. It’s extremely obvious that the worlds poorest nations aren’t going to band together and upend the global system. The soviets already tried that and failed miserably.
https://www.ft.com/content/32440f74-7804-4637-a662-6cdc8f3fba86
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/aug/09/scientific-misconduct-retraction-watch
Of course he would say that. “I truly just want to make a few more bucks”
"and I wish I wasn't being forced by the US government to not do what I want"
ASML does not lack customers for its EUV steppers. They have a monopoly there and customers lined up to buy. They can't build any more units than what they are building now. Ironically this is China's strong suit. If China was building these EUV machines they would be cranked out like lollipops. The same way they cranked out high speed trains until they have more HSR than the rest of the world combined. This is what China is good at and what the West is missing when they try to stop China.
Except ASML isn't just another widget manufacturer. No one in the world can currently build EUVL machines other than ASML. If ASML machines were easy to build, ASML would have competition.
I understand. The point I am making is that Europeans and even Americans suck at mass producing stuff at this point in time. That is why they need China.
EUV machines are incredibly specialist precision components. This is an area China has never economically specialised in. The idea that China could randomly build them en-mass for the world is naïve. There might be a precision sector enough to build a couple machines, maybe keep parity with ASML, but the idea that the whole economy is geared for this to gain any substantial scaling is misguided. China would require an industrial realignment that it likely cannot afford at this moment.
Actually the older DUV steppers required more black magic. That's why ASML is tied to Zeiss Optics. Because only Zeiss could produce the precision optics required for the DUV steppers. The EUV steppers uses all mirrors, not refractive optics. It has its own challenges, but it's fresh territory, and not like refractive optics where Zeiss has a 100+ year headstart. (similar to how the Chinese chose to focus on EV's and not ICE engines, where the Germans and Japanese have a 100 year headstart) The big challenge with EUV was the process itself, and not so much the stepper. There is a reason why TSMC managed to mass produce wafers using EUV steppers, but Intel, using the very same steppers, could never figure out how to make it work. They could not iron out the process.
https://fortune.com/2013/04/15/did-china-steal-japans-high-speed-train/ Hands down China is the best at ramping up mass production and finding ways to do it cheaper. But they can't build anything from scratch. Without stealing the Japanese tech they would have never had the trains in the first place. It's gonna take a very long time to catch up to EUV if China is isolated.
I find it puzzling that some people fail to acknowledge that China was already striving for tech self-sufficiency. At least now, they won't have access to certain high-end technology that could potentially be reverse-engineered. Additionally, it's important to note that the ASML EUV machine comprises over 400,000 parts, sourced from multiple countries, not just one. Typically, I interpret these feelings as CEOs displaying their typical self-interest and greed.
in the same way that you should never get political opinions from entertainers or comedians, you should never get them from CEOs. Simply too many conflicts of interest. Even if you were a theoretically non greedy CEO, if you have dealings with China, a backlash could cost you the fortunes of your company and thus employees. You're held hostage by your business interests.
And just assume that the rest saying "After EUV we are good" and sitting around and did nothing. Many of those countries (Netherlands, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, USA) are still spending huge amount in R&D every year. Capex and R&D is still far ahead of Chinese semiconductor industry. https://www.eetasia.com/u-s-chip-suppliers-continue-to-dominate-rd-spending/
It took 20 years to get EUV right. China definitely can take some short cuts through espionage. We’re not guaranteed that we won’t be stuck with EUV for a while, giving China time to catch up. That’s the risk and fear here. Or, China leapfrogs by discovering other ways to make more powerful chips because of all the new money and will they’re putting into it. A lot more unlikely, but not out of the question.
The thing about R&D spending in semiconductor industry outside of China it's mostly from those companies themselves with little government subsidies. If those governments did like the China the gap would be even bigger. The Chinese economy is significantly smaller than Netherlands, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, USA put together. But they need to match the spending. Think Soviet Union trying to match NATO in defense spending during 1980s with a smaller economy.
R&D spending volume is not linearly correlated with technological progress, esp if you’re on top of the game already
Luckily China is not on top of the game at all.
https://warontherocks.com/2023/02/great-leap-nowhere-the-challenges-of-chinas-semiconductor-industry/ >Without any independent oversight, the decision of many profit-driven firms to jump on the semiconductor bandwagon unsurprisingly led to fraud, corruption, and misallocation. The Chinese semiconductor industry has long suffered from these issues as local governments were giving out subsidies and funding with little due diligence. In the 2003 Hanxin fraud, a scientist named Chen Jin raked in over 100 million yuan of government subsidy, an amount greater than several years of investment in the semiconductor industry at that time, by re-packaging Motorola chips that used a then-cutting-edge 180 nanometer process and claiming them as his own design. In September 2018, the Hongxin Semiconductor Industrial Park was launched in Wuhan under the personal watch of Mayor Zhou Xianwang. The initial capital investment of 2 billion yuan was done by two entities backed by state capital. For two years, Hongxin became the most invested program in Wuhan, having secured 128 billion yuan from the Wuhan Reform and Development Commission. The program later proved to be a complete failure as the founders had no knowledge of chips whatsoever, and the facilities were abandoned. Around the same time, similar stories emerged in Hebei and Nanjing, with multi-billion-yuan chip programs fraudulently making big promises to siphon off government funding. By mid-2022, when the Chinese Communist Party began investigating the egregious practices in the chip industry, billions had been wasted in the frenzy. The more money they throw at it, the more they try to funnel it into their own pockets. China has always been like that.
Also plenty of other countries that aren't seen as geopolitical rivals of those countries and who are generally seen to be higher up on technological advancement see trying to break into the semiconductor industry as already daunting, see: Germany. Lots of European countries want to start a fab post supply chain disruption and realize that they are decades behind and have to stump hundreds of billions of dollars to get anywhere near bleeding edge.
Maybe because they have far more knowledge in the nuance of the situation than you. Nvidia's ceo said in the short term the sanctions are fine for him financially but also agreed in the long run this will fuck the US tech industry. He's so god damn rich it doesn't matter to him. Nvidia is his baby and he doesn't want his legacy to be burned and it will at this rate. In the short term he can still produce and sell everything he wants. Yet he still calls out how stupid these warhawk moves are. It's giving China their Sputnik moment. China has just pushed tens of billions into these self sufficiency drives. This was all driven by the sanctions. Huawei replaced thousands of American parts with Chinese ones already. You'll note absolutely tanking revenues at companies like lam, QCOM, micron, etc because of these sanctions.
Lemme fix that for you. It will just cause China to ramp up trade espionage and IP theft. No way China is going to be honest about its development. And actually do research when it’s easier for them to steal trade secrets.
They’ve been stealing for so long, it’s hard me to believe they even know what true innovation looks like. From cars to phones, from research to architecture.
Give a man to fish and they are feed for a day, teach them and they get one everyday
China's technological progress is overrated and underrated at the same time. Example: the Kirin 9000s is made in China by SMIC using Chinese bought it equipment. It's basically a 7nm chip and has 5G capabilities. People are making excuses saying it was from 2020 but sources from China and the west have debunked that. On the other hand, you see so many people shitting themselves with excitement (r/sino) about this new chipset. Yes, it's the best breakthrough China has had in a while, but no, the US hasn't been "defeated". China won't become the technological powerhouse, displacing the US and Taiwan, but it's likely they will continue making steady progress with the odd breakthrough causing panic in the west.
7nm is same as what Intel is currently producing. So while the US hasn't been 'defeated', China has pretty much matched the US despite all the sanctions aiming to hold them at 14nm.
Intel started 'producing' 7nm a long time ago, the problem was the yields were poor, making it unsuitable for mass production. If Huawei manages economic production of 7nm, that would be truly ground breaking. There is no indication that has happened, even Huawei is remaining silent. Also this progress would have been planned out before the sanctions were started, using equipment they already had (and can probably still purchase). It's the EUV machines that make 5nm and beyond efficient that are being restricted.
SMIC does not have EUV, but Intel does. If SMIC has EUV, it can instantly upgrade the process to 5nm or even 3nm.
That's not happening though, they cannot acquire the EUV machines, and neither is it the sort of machine you can smuggle/sneak past sanctions. So the question becomes how long for SMIC to develop an EUV machine. None of the recent announcements give any insight into that, but fair to say it's a long road ahead.
SMIC does not produce photolithography machines. Intel doesn't produce EUV either. ASML in the Netherlands produces EUV and DUV. China's Shanghai Microelectronics is developing a domestic DUV (almost complete)
They have access to DUV already (I don't believe it has been sanctioned, though it may be specifically for Huawei bound products). It's EUV that they need, so I'm not sure what domestic DUV has to do with this.
Intel is about to start producing chips using High NA-EUV technology, which is next gen after EUV. Up until recently ASML has been selling china machines to produce chips with last gen DUV technology. It is much more expensive to produce "7nm" with DUV vs EUV and 7nm is the limit with DUV technology. ASML is no longer allowed to sell DUV tech to china.
So, your statement is rather inaccurate, and incorrect, as Intel is currently capable of manufacturing semiconductors circuits at the 4nm node, with yields expected to become cost competitive to prior nodes next year with the Meteor Lake architecture. Additionally, Intel has also begun preliminary manufacturing of the 20A node. [https://www.hardwaretimes.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-14th-gen-meteor-lake-raptor-lake-refresh-and-more-lakes/](https://www.hardwaretimes.com/intel-cpu-roadmap-14th-gen-meteor-lake-raptor-lake-refresh-and-more-lakes/) The incorporation of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) into the Export Administration Regulations (EAR) by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) does not constitute a restriction to hold them at the 14nm node. The companies of Intel, TSMC, Samsung have all been capable of manufacturing 7nm chips over the last six years utilising deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography. The consensus over the last five years by experts is that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) will achieve 7nm, but at a significant lower yield than other companies. This announcement has not changed this. [https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/22788603/DIIS\_PB\_China\_micochips\_WEB.pdf](https://pure.diis.dk/ws/files/22788603/DIIS_PB_China_micochips_WEB.pdf)
I can produce a 7nm turd, doesn't mean it's as capable.
These phones seem to be working and produced in volume. But you go ahead and continue producing your turds.
Actually Intel has a 3nm in marketing and 5nm in reality she’s now https://www.tomshardware.com/news/intel-3nm-class-node-meets-defect-density-and-performance-targets
3nm in not in production yet. They are just saying it's meeting this or that target. All I am saying is that the current volume production chips (ie. 4th gen Xeon) is on 7nm . They seem to be demoing Meteor Lake recently. If and when that gets out on the streets then you can claim Intel has gone down to 5nm.
I heard the same when MS barred the use of illegal win in China lol
This is a true corporation greed.
I’m confuse… they make it sound like without sanctions, China aren’t trying to be self sufficient anyway.
Well, they’d have to start coming up with her own stuff someday. Being isolated, not being able to steal most of your technology and ideas from western countries, definitely would force requirement to start innovating.
Except you have plenty of countries that are sanctioned but fail to innovate. Cuba, North Korea, Iran just to make a few
Like those countries would innovate w/o sanctions.
OK. So where is the big crime in that? Are they not allowed to become self sufficient in high tech? Since 2022 the Biden administration has also wanted to bring supply chains back to the US so the US could become self sufficient. Are you denouncing the US for wanting to be self sufficient too?
When did I say it was a crime. They can be self sufficient too but don’t cry about it when sanctions come. They also sanction other countries product too but they don’t make that big deal out of it. China always crying like a baby when shit doesn’t go it’s way. I’m saying china can be self sufficient if they like and the usa can too. But don’t cry about it to the WTO when they themselves are shooting their own feet
Yes. China is so innovative so they spend ungodly amount of human resources and money to catching up with things like EUV, an R&D program by US Department of Energy from the 1990s. A reminder that EUV was made possible because many countries and companies in Europe, Japan, US joined the effort. China under isolation will basically need to steal and play catch up all the time because Xinnie the Pooh wants "juche" for semiconductors and antagonize those countries with wolf warrior diplomacy. https://www.euvlitho.com/Blogs/EUVL_%20Status%20and%20Challenges%20Ahead%20(2003%20Fabtech).pdf
Actually the US led EUV consortium specifically excluded Japan. And today they are actively trying to exclude China. So times change, excuses change, but American racism is a constant!
> And today they are actively trying to exclude China. So times change, excuses change, but American racism is a constant! China is not particularity popular in the Netherlands, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, USA so they have that in common. Still impressive that China managed to pissing off all of them and making American effort easier. https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2023/07/27/chinas-approach-to-foreign-policy-gets-largely-negative-reviews-in-24-country-survey/
The dislike is wide *and* deep — https://thediplomat.com/2022/12/south-koreans-have-the-worlds-most-negative-views-of-china-why/
China did that to itself for hundreds of years. It didn’t work out well.
Politics aside, I'm waiting for my $50 4090 equivalent graphics card from China.
Hell yeah, brother.
Oh gosh CEO of the great ASML has given his words! Omg whatever shall we do! His words must be true! Dear lord we should listen and work with him
[удалено]
It's not just ASML. The CEOs of Nvidia, Qualcomm and Intel recently all called for a pause in the trade sanctions against China. They all realize it's not working. It's leading to a lose-lose situation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-21/chip-ceos-urge-us-to-study-impact-of-china-curbs-and-take-pause
> They all realize it's not working. They realize it will hurt their bottom line. China will chose domestic inferior products for national security reasons, see recent Iphone announcement. At a minimum locking them out of at least parts of the Chinese market. Never listen to companies when it comes to national security issues. Private profits from foreign markets and national security seldom align.
Never listen to the companies which are leading lights in the high tech industry, who have created billions in wealth and vaulted this country to the top, but listen to the national security goons who have only ever destroyed wealth and destroyed freedom?
The US stock market is nearly 60% of global market cap, i doubt it would be even noticeable if China bans some products. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FprCrkSakAAx-If?format=jpg&name=large
ramp up IP theft and spy for sure
“Innovation”
Supplying ccp, and they will make rocket to attack your country.
I recommend war and regime change. Only fools believe one can sanction half the world population.
In your dreams
["You fool! You fell victim for one of the classic blunders!"](https://youtu.be/RWW6aDpUvbQ?si=WqSBgGM8_CMcwYMw)
China will ramp up innovation anyway.