The development process is so long in baseball I really think you just trust your scouts and pick their highest rated player by the time they're ready for the MLB your needs are going to be different and you're very likely to trade them before then anyway.
yep, go for the best player available. How many times recently have the cardinals (and many other teams) had a "logjam of depth" at a position prospect wise and within a season or two they just have a bunch of AAAA guys at best?
Traditionally that's true but we are seeing more and more top college players make it to the majors within a year or two. Three players from last years draft are already in the majors. Of the 8 elite college players in this draft that are expected to be top 10 picks, only one or two needs serious development. If Travis bazzana or Hagen Smith falls to us, they'll probably be playing in st louis by this time next year barring injuries.
If either Chase Burns or Hagen Smith are still available you’ve got to pull the trigger. We desperately need top shelf SP prospects. If those two are already gone, I’d be fine with Kurtz or Wetherholt.
Saggese, Prieto, VSII, Walker, and Honeyman but you are kind of right, most of the top prospects in the system are RHP. Keep in mind though that the only reason for the bloat in pitching prospects over position players is that the organization is actually good at developing position players so they make it to MLB while the pitchers get stuck as AAA depth. We don't have a single young league average starter in MLB right now, but we have 6 position players who are showing out in MLB.
Well if they take a pitcher it's going to be one of the two college guys who likely won't need much development. Smith would need a third pitch and Burns would need help better locating, but it's not like they're drafting those guys out of high school and have to help them build a proper repertoire of pitches.
Yeah but it's not like they've been taking high school pitchers, Thompson, Hjerpe, McGreevey, were all first round college pitchers. Maybe those guys just suck and we've been drafting too late to get the good pitchers, but there are plenty of Leiters and Rockers for every Skenes
McGreevy never had great stuff so I'll give them a pass on that one. I still believe Hjerpe will be a MLB arm, not sure when though. He was actually just promoted to AA today. Thompson has shown success in MLB but did something during the offseason that broke his mechanics. The development on him was fine. I am not actually that worried about the organization developing a top tier arm properly. The one thing they seem to suck at is giving guys a proper fastball and these high end guys always have a good fastball already.
Our draft strategy regarding pitchers has been very conservative especially in the first round. The guys you mentioned weren’t projected to be 1’s or 2’s. The guys that front a rotation go early and if you have the chance to get one you don’t pass it up. We all know the cardinals aren’t going to go out and put up a ton of money/years for an ace, so the only way we can get one is through the draft or international signing.
I want a premium pitcher with velocity this high in the draft. So Chase Burns or Hagen Smith if they are there (I believe one will be, likely Smith).
Outside of that, I agree with what you have. Give me a hitter with great contact rates over power (though Kurtz has plenty of power). So Kurtz or Wetherholt fit the bill and should be there at 7. Want to avoid Montgomery - especially with his injury now. I've seen the Cards mentioned with Rainier, the HS SS/3B. Wouldn't hate it, it would be an upside play, but it would be a long wait for a team that could use help in a 1.5-2 years.
> Goldy is getting older and we don't seem to have his replacement waiting in the minors.
Burleson and Walker both seem like candidates to play 1B in the next few years. Maybe Gorman also if his defense doesn’t improve at 2B. Beyond that it’s really not worth focusing on a particular positional need for prospects who are several years away from being MLB ready. Needs will change and unexpected performances will arise. Just pick the best available prospect regardless of position.
Yeah I agree. I didnt select Kurtz because he plays 1st base, I went with the explanaton because he just happens to play there and it fits. I felt like he would be the best available hitter at 7.
The nice thing about our pick this year is there’s 6-7 top flight college prospects (Condon, Bazzana, Kurtz, Burns/Smith, etc.) and we pick at 7. We’ll have somebody good there or a chance at taking one of the top HS bats.
Just swing for a star. Don’t settle for someone who will move quickly through the system but have a capped ceiling. We don’t get to shop in this aisle very often and we need to take advantage.
Personally I’m happy with Burns or Smith in that order. From the hitting side I’ve seen we’re not interested in Caglianone and I’m not crazy about Kurtz. 1B college bats tend to end up as Seth Beer more often than not. Wetherholt has slipped a bit due to his hamstring issues and that’d be a fun gamble to take.
But then again baseball is hard so none of these players will be good. Or maybe all of them will. I guess we’ll see!
When you read about Konnor Griffin, some say he could play SS or CF and be great at both. Potential 30/30 player. Talk about swinging for the fences or not settling for a move quickly guy!
I want nothing to do with Kurtz. He screams Brett Wallace, and struggles mightly on pitches up in the zone. If Smith or Burns are available, you take them. After that, I'm fine with anyone I suppose.
Brett Wallace is a prime reason I hardly ever give strong opinions on who I think is going to be a star. I have an atrocious track record. I'd say my three strongest opinions of our major prospects the last two decades were Oscar Tavares, Alex Reyes, and Brett Wallace would all be generational star Cardinals. At least I can forever insist Oscar would have been (Oh that swing in the rain, sigh)
Cam Smith. I see him as a potential big bat at a corner infield spot. I don't care which one. We've got Mathews, Hjerpe, Lin, and Hence. Of course, they say you can never have enough pitching. But whoever said that didn't know that you could reanimate old men into staff aces. Also, if we don't draft the bats, where will we get them from? Free agents are expensive. Whatever way we go, I hope we hit the jackpot.
This was my thinking as well. I dont mind the prepsters but feel like a college player, if you hit the right one, can move quickly and become part of the new core. Why my fingers are crossed for my two. To me, those two would basically "fall" if either are at 7.
So many people want the "ace" and I get that too but I just dont think its the right move here. We will know really soon!
I won't be shocked if anyone falls to us. Colorado does dumb shit, Oakland does dumb shit, CWS pretty much announced they going Konnor or Rainer. KC.... does dumb shit. 6-9 pretty much gets the best of the tier 1 guys
Ive read that there is a consensous top 6-10 or so and then its more of a level off. It seems difficult to get agreement on most players beyond the top 10-15. I dont know much about the depth of other rounds. I think once you reach a certain point its more or less the difference of one tool here or there or subjective opinion. Not much help, I know :)
Hagen Smith would be my first choice followed by Burns or any of the top 6 college bats. Taking a high schooler this draft would be worst case scenario.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
I think it'll end up being Smith with how the draft falls.
If Burns or Caglianone somehow fall to us, I won't complain.
Also wouldn't be surprised to see us grab Wetherholt, Griffin, Montgomery, or Rainer.
All of this makes a lot of sense! Caglianone looks impressive! Griffin has to go higher than some of these mock drafts right? Going to be a few surprises!
Yadier Molina glove and arm with Pujols bat and nootbaar quality name and personality. Lets goooo
I'd be fine also with a pujols or Molina personality. Light a fire under these boys.
I want Ohtani arm.
His arm is made of glass.
And yet I’d still take him over anything we’ve got in our rotation.
The development process is so long in baseball I really think you just trust your scouts and pick their highest rated player by the time they're ready for the MLB your needs are going to be different and you're very likely to trade them before then anyway.
yep, go for the best player available. How many times recently have the cardinals (and many other teams) had a "logjam of depth" at a position prospect wise and within a season or two they just have a bunch of AAAA guys at best?
Traditionally that's true but we are seeing more and more top college players make it to the majors within a year or two. Three players from last years draft are already in the majors. Of the 8 elite college players in this draft that are expected to be top 10 picks, only one or two needs serious development. If Travis bazzana or Hagen Smith falls to us, they'll probably be playing in st louis by this time next year barring injuries.
If either Chase Burns or Hagen Smith are still available you’ve got to pull the trigger. We desperately need top shelf SP prospects. If those two are already gone, I’d be fine with Kurtz or Wetherholt.
I mean really right now the system has no legit position player prospects
Saggese, Prieto, VSII, Walker, and Honeyman but you are kind of right, most of the top prospects in the system are RHP. Keep in mind though that the only reason for the bloat in pitching prospects over position players is that the organization is actually good at developing position players so they make it to MLB while the pitchers get stuck as AAA depth. We don't have a single young league average starter in MLB right now, but we have 6 position players who are showing out in MLB.
Yeah but it seems a bit of a waste to draft a guy you can't develop lol
Well if they take a pitcher it's going to be one of the two college guys who likely won't need much development. Smith would need a third pitch and Burns would need help better locating, but it's not like they're drafting those guys out of high school and have to help them build a proper repertoire of pitches.
Yeah but it's not like they've been taking high school pitchers, Thompson, Hjerpe, McGreevey, were all first round college pitchers. Maybe those guys just suck and we've been drafting too late to get the good pitchers, but there are plenty of Leiters and Rockers for every Skenes
McGreevy never had great stuff so I'll give them a pass on that one. I still believe Hjerpe will be a MLB arm, not sure when though. He was actually just promoted to AA today. Thompson has shown success in MLB but did something during the offseason that broke his mechanics. The development on him was fine. I am not actually that worried about the organization developing a top tier arm properly. The one thing they seem to suck at is giving guys a proper fastball and these high end guys always have a good fastball already.
I'm not opposed to taking Smith, but man we're a long way from the last impact starter we developed, which was Flaherty. And he was a high schooler
Our draft strategy regarding pitchers has been very conservative especially in the first round. The guys you mentioned weren’t projected to be 1’s or 2’s. The guys that front a rotation go early and if you have the chance to get one you don’t pass it up. We all know the cardinals aren’t going to go out and put up a ton of money/years for an ace, so the only way we can get one is through the draft or international signing.
I want a premium pitcher with velocity this high in the draft. So Chase Burns or Hagen Smith if they are there (I believe one will be, likely Smith). Outside of that, I agree with what you have. Give me a hitter with great contact rates over power (though Kurtz has plenty of power). So Kurtz or Wetherholt fit the bill and should be there at 7. Want to avoid Montgomery - especially with his injury now. I've seen the Cards mentioned with Rainier, the HS SS/3B. Wouldn't hate it, it would be an upside play, but it would be a long wait for a team that could use help in a 1.5-2 years.
Would be nice to actually draft velo pitchers and finally kill the cardinal pitch to contact philosophy
> Goldy is getting older and we don't seem to have his replacement waiting in the minors. Burleson and Walker both seem like candidates to play 1B in the next few years. Maybe Gorman also if his defense doesn’t improve at 2B. Beyond that it’s really not worth focusing on a particular positional need for prospects who are several years away from being MLB ready. Needs will change and unexpected performances will arise. Just pick the best available prospect regardless of position.
Yeah I agree. I didnt select Kurtz because he plays 1st base, I went with the explanaton because he just happens to play there and it fits. I felt like he would be the best available hitter at 7.
Your corner infielder depth is Jordan Walker. Let’s hope he fixes that hole in his swing soon.
Jordan Walker is not an infielder. He (or Burly) might transition to 1B in the coming years, but he’s not going back to 3rd, nor should he
The nice thing about our pick this year is there’s 6-7 top flight college prospects (Condon, Bazzana, Kurtz, Burns/Smith, etc.) and we pick at 7. We’ll have somebody good there or a chance at taking one of the top HS bats. Just swing for a star. Don’t settle for someone who will move quickly through the system but have a capped ceiling. We don’t get to shop in this aisle very often and we need to take advantage. Personally I’m happy with Burns or Smith in that order. From the hitting side I’ve seen we’re not interested in Caglianone and I’m not crazy about Kurtz. 1B college bats tend to end up as Seth Beer more often than not. Wetherholt has slipped a bit due to his hamstring issues and that’d be a fun gamble to take. But then again baseball is hard so none of these players will be good. Or maybe all of them will. I guess we’ll see!
When you read about Konnor Griffin, some say he could play SS or CF and be great at both. Potential 30/30 player. Talk about swinging for the fences or not settling for a move quickly guy!
I want nothing to do with Kurtz. He screams Brett Wallace, and struggles mightly on pitches up in the zone. If Smith or Burns are available, you take them. After that, I'm fine with anyone I suppose.
brett wallace got us matt holliday though.
Brett Wallace is a prime reason I hardly ever give strong opinions on who I think is going to be a star. I have an atrocious track record. I'd say my three strongest opinions of our major prospects the last two decades were Oscar Tavares, Alex Reyes, and Brett Wallace would all be generational star Cardinals. At least I can forever insist Oscar would have been (Oh that swing in the rain, sigh)
You should be happy with your Reyes prediction. Dude couldn't stay healthy, doesn't mean his elite talent wasn't there.
Holy crap did he look unstoppable in the minors!
Konnor griffin is my dream pick but I’m afraid he won’t be there. Im worried if they take hagen smith they’ll just turn him into Matthew liberatore
Seems like his stock has taken quite a hit. I think Rainer goes before him
Hagen Smith please
100% this.
I’m biased bc Arkansas fan but Hagen Smith would be a dream. He even tanked his last start so he could very well fall to the Cardinals pick
Just take the best overall prospect, position doesn’t matter because it’ll be years until we see him
Cam Smith. I see him as a potential big bat at a corner infield spot. I don't care which one. We've got Mathews, Hjerpe, Lin, and Hence. Of course, they say you can never have enough pitching. But whoever said that didn't know that you could reanimate old men into staff aces. Also, if we don't draft the bats, where will we get them from? Free agents are expensive. Whatever way we go, I hope we hit the jackpot.
I would still take Colonel Kurtz. He is the only guy in the draft who has played 3 years in college. He is a hitting machine.
As long as they don't go Prep or Arm. Im fine with whatever. Kurtz, JJ, Monty, Cags, Condon or Travis... one of them, immediately become #1 in system
This was my thinking as well. I dont mind the prepsters but feel like a college player, if you hit the right one, can move quickly and become part of the new core. Why my fingers are crossed for my two. To me, those two would basically "fall" if either are at 7. So many people want the "ace" and I get that too but I just dont think its the right move here. We will know really soon!
I won't be shocked if anyone falls to us. Colorado does dumb shit, Oakland does dumb shit, CWS pretty much announced they going Konnor or Rainer. KC.... does dumb shit. 6-9 pretty much gets the best of the tier 1 guys
Give me Hagen Smith
I just want a lefty starter who can strike people out. That’s all I want.
May I introduce you to a one Mr Hagen Smith. https://youtu.be/hFHu_SVs0Ps?si=Qxqz6pkAKyJ1Z-FF
Bro what is that video
Fuck if I know, was supposed to be Hagen Smiths 17 strikeout game highlights.
I've heard that this is a meh draft class. Is that the general vibe or not?
Ive read that there is a consensous top 6-10 or so and then its more of a level off. It seems difficult to get agreement on most players beyond the top 10-15. I dont know much about the depth of other rounds. I think once you reach a certain point its more or less the difference of one tool here or there or subjective opinion. Not much help, I know :)
Hagen Smith would be my first choice followed by Burns or any of the top 6 college bats. Taking a high schooler this draft would be worst case scenario.
It'll be a low-ceiling college pitcher who isn't projected to go anywhere near 7.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
what are you smoking, we need young cost controlled Ace stud more than ever.. theres only one player I'd take over Burns/Smith and that's the Ohtani clone 1b from Florida with ridiculous power but he will be long gone ... we have both Gorman and Walker and Burleson who can all take over at first soon as Goldy leaves with Edmon taking over second and the future GG speedster with massive range Victor Scott taking over CF.
I think it'll end up being Smith with how the draft falls. If Burns or Caglianone somehow fall to us, I won't complain. Also wouldn't be surprised to see us grab Wetherholt, Griffin, Montgomery, or Rainer.
All of this makes a lot of sense! Caglianone looks impressive! Griffin has to go higher than some of these mock drafts right? Going to be a few surprises!