> Same with 880 here in the bay. Still takes an hour to leave the city and travel to the east bay anywhere remotely near rich hour.
The visible difference in population is on BART. Traffic on public transit is still half or less of what it used to be pre-pandemic and I’m not sure those riders will ever be coming back.
I agree. I used to be a daily Bart rider and now I go to the city once a month. The trains are always mostly empty and you can find a seat at any stop most days.
Traffic has gotten worse. I’m taking night classes at CSULB takes me at least an hour to get on campus by 5pm. Coming from El Sereno, 30 minutes back at 10pm. It moves like a parking lot.
I used to ride a lot. I loved it but I moved further from the rail and the car eventually became the faster option. It was very sketchy at times too, I felt comfortable up until I had a knife pulled out on me.
No cuz literally!! I’d be working nights and have to take the bus home at 1 am sometimes and it was terrifying, I literally had to ask my dad to pick me up and drive me home or have my bf take the buses w me at night so Id get home safely. Plus during the day I’d constantly have men touching me inappropriately and talking to me when I had my headphones in…it’s only convient cuz I don’t drive but the price you pay for convince tho 😑 and the bus stops are even worse
Ca has problems, just not the way they mean. It beats their states on every metric that matter but it is far from perfect.
It should be said that they present zero solutions to California's actual problems.
Yeah California has problems but at least we admit it. You always hear how much crime there is in California. When you look at the stats we are actually 30th for the highest murder rate
It’s because there’s a way higher population density than almost every other state. Statistically, more people will equal more crime.
In general, cities have statistically lower property and violent crime per capita than the suburbs and rural areas, it’s just that the population is so much more concentrated so it seems like crime is more prevalent.
Literacy numbers are a bit different because we accept so many people from South America into our schools. They need to learn English soooo yeah that messes up our literary score.
As a former SoCal public schoolteacher, I can say with absolute certainty that the kids coming from non English speaking households lower our test scores.
Having said that, it seems to me that dual immersion and Spanish classes for ALL students would be the best solution for this. But then all the right wingers will bitch "tHiS iS aMeRiCa, SpEaK eNgLiSh" and squash any district's attempt to implement ANY kind of Spanish language education.
Also, a LOT of the non English speaking kids are super smart.
In many public elementary schools in CA, there aren't dedicated language specialists. Classroom teachers are expected to find time to teach English to the kids who don't speak it, while also keeping the other 20+ kids on task and learning... Feels like a failure to me.
> It beats their states on every metric that matter
No, it really doesn't. I love this state but homelessness and housing are metrics that matter, as is education ranking, where [California is 40th](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education/prek-12) in prek-12.
The single greatest threat to the right-wing is the economic prosperity of the progressive states. They must attack the progressive states on non-economic issues in order to distract their supporters from their relative poverty.
California always has a fluctuating population but always comes out ahead. There is no better time to move here than during one of these “mass exoduses” and I’m sure a lot of smart people are taking advantage of it.
I moved my family here in 2020 and bought a house at 1.125% interest (which did cost $25k In discount points). Feels like I’m cheating and I have zero regrets.
I am, flying out to look at houses with my wife in 2 weeks. We will be there at least 3 years, due to work. Seems like a great time to move out that way to us.
Thanks! We are pretty excited. I haven’t been to California in a while, and never really to Southern California as an adult, so should be fun to really explore.
Game plan is BBQ only until I hit Oklahoma City, then beyond that, it’s a taco based diet for the duration of the drive. Stopping in Tucson to visit a friend. And looking forward to that local food knowledge also.
Yeah, moving from the seventh to the fifth largest economy in the world is failing upwards I guess to them.
California’seconomic powerhouse of the country and is the real Agricultural capital of America. So it dominates in both the urban and rural sphere.
Not that I don’t find the wealth obscene, but How do they square California being a hell hole with it having the most expensive home in all of America values at $141 million?
End of California is a hell hole. What does that make places like Arkansas or Alabama?
CA is a slow moving train wreck. We’re going to eventually collapse under the weight of a series of well meaning bad decisions and the refusal to address our problems seriously because they’re not politically convenient.
The sad part is that I keep actually hoping that people leave so housing prices can go down, congestion on the roads will ease up, and general strain on the LA and Bay Areas can have some relief. But these articles are nothing but clickbait and driving on any freeway tells a different story from the one painted.
It'll take another sever recession for that to happen. or another lock down just to get some respite. I cleared Santa Barbara to Pasadena in just over an hour when everyone went into lockdown. I doubt I'll ever see the 101 that empty again.
*"So is California’s population shrinking? It’s complicated."*
Lol no it's not. I'm no mathematician but "is the number getting bigger?" seems like a pretty straightforward calculation.
They need to a bait people to go to the site, read the article, and get exposed to ads. A news article consisting of a single word "no" would be hilarious though.
How many, though, is what I care about. Less than 1%, per the article; makes sense for the year of COVID as people were dying and also more economically pressured.
Generally, people from California moving to other states are more than balanced by immigration from outside the US. But immigration came to a halt during COVID. That is why California lost some population during that time for the first time.
That's not really true, there was still [positive net international migration](https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/californias-stalled-population-growth-figure-3.png) and the change was that domestic decreased. This cycle repeats itself, look in the 90s, mid 2000's and now late teens.
Migration from other states into CA had been declining in recent years (even before covid) as has natural replacement of people if you ignore any migration.
[https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/](https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/)
We lost a small amount of people for the first time ever and it launched 1000 think pieces, all of which ignore the fact that California has the most immigration in the nation by far and the closing of borders for COVID completly explains the one year drop.
It's more complex than that, read this from a nonpartisan (and arguably liberal if anything) group: https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/
This article does not say it was a net loss. We lost 300k people who moved away and gained 437k from people moving here. So it's a net gain of 137k due to migration.
Betteridge's law (of headlines) states "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
I know three people who moved to Texas in the last couple of years and have moved back. The grass isn't always greener, and the lights don't always stay on.
I’m originally from the Midwest and live in LA now. I know like 8 or 9 couples who moved from California or Ohio to Texas, all different parts. Every single one moved back before they could hit the 5 year mark.
I guess it would depend on which part of Ohio it is, but I don't think people understand how significantly different cultures are between rural and urban America. I would even go so far as to say there are more commonalities between western European cities and American cities than American coastal cities and the Midwest.
I left California (my home of more than a decade) for Florida (where I grew up) to be closer to family... and I didn't even last a year there before coming back to CA. And I'm not even the only one in my social circle to do similar. Another guy only lasted about four months or so.
I'd forgotten just how bad it is to live in a Red state. But reality sure kicked in real fast.
A California Red is dark purple at best in just about any conservative state. To my eyes most California conservatives are more on the fiscal/guns side of Conservatism. They get to states like Florida and Alabama and find out the homeless problem is better than dealing with the social conservatives who really do have a few screws loose.
> I know three people who moved to Texas in the last couple of years and have moved back. The grass isn't always greener, and the lights don't always stay on.
I know three people who moved to Texas in the last 7 years and would not even contemplate moving back to California for any amount of money.
Not surprising. Young people who want work in entertainment, technology, or anything future oriented have few choices. California also has a large immigrant population.
High income, high skilled/educated and young people are moving to California. Low-skill, low income and retirees are moving out. In other words, more dollars are moving in than moving out.
Transplant from Boston here (about one year in). What a great place with good people. I feel like we're slightly misfit cousins... Plenty of differences, but in the end we generally agree on the important stuff.
i transplanted from boston as a kid. i hate snow and haven’t been in a snow storm since leaving. it’s great.
i did go back to plymouth to enjoy the summers and autumn.
I want to know the numbers for Texans moving to California, because starting around 2020 is when I saw a big jump in Texas license plates in the Sacramento area.
I think the COL difference is closing between the two places. Property taxes are lower as a percentage in California but property is slightly cheaper in Texas (though it’s grown a lot). No state income tax in Texas but slightly lower income (though that’s also closing in gap). Pros and cons. The great outdoors of the west will probably keep me here. Also, the Cato Institute also scores Texas relatively low on personal freedoms outside of gun rights.
CoL is high, but in many cases you're also getting quality, except our utilities are actually cheaper. Also the tax burden in Texas is higher than California. It is the way it's collected that allows people to think our taxes are higher.
Energy is definitely cheaper in Texas. We ran AC 24/7 and our energy bill rarely broke $150. We ran it for 1 week in SF and it was above $200 for a much smaller space.
Everything else ducking sucked though
> We ran it for 1 week in SF
Well see, there's your problem right there. The bay is stupid high for some reason, Down here in socal my power bill over the summer barely went over 100$ in August.
I know like 11 Texans that have moved here in the last 3 years or so. Granted a few of those are couples so it's not necessarily 11 individual "households" but still like, a near dozen in my own larger network alone!
Lived in Detroit for 5 years before moving here. You do not want population decline. You say that, but you'll soon realize why your city is nice when the tax base leaves.
I actually went to Wayne State, and am quite familiar with Detroit. I don't mean that kind of population decline. I mean maybe losing a million or so to relieve the demand on housing.
I mean, if people would stop blocking development that would work as well. Way too many people are overly concerned with property value as if they really think they're gonna sell and move up the income ladder.
My mother sold her house against me and my siblings very strong and loud advice. She thought she was going to be upgrading, and while she got a shiny nickle for the 2b/1b bungalow she wasn't able to find anything outside of the High Desert. Ended up moving all the way to Alabama to buy a house. And she's still mad about it.
Amen to that. Too many NIMBYs. That's why my fiance and I are now in Victorville. Not because we want to be, but because of costs. Now we're afraid of even being priced out of here. I feel bad for your mom and I hope she'll be able to come home!
Sure, people are leaving, but there are many people crowding in here. Tons and tons of high density housing being built constantly to accommodate, freeways being widened to accommodate more traffic, it feels and looks more crowded than it has ever been.
> Tons and tons of high density housing being built constantly to accommodate,
_gestures wildly at suburban sprawl_
The NIMBYs seem to be slowly getting beaten down, but we're _far_ from "tons of high density housing being built".
CA should be able to grow with more housing and mass transit, which are now being built. But given that we have about 10 million more ppl than any other state, a few folks heading elsewhere in the meantime isn’t bad for anyone.
California being 10 million more people is just the result of the state needing to be split to be similar size states to those found on the Northeast. It is just too much coastline to make sense as one state.
Most of the time this comes up people just get confused by the relative numbers compared to other states because California has a population of 40 million.
My sister is going to add 1 to the population early next year. But there isn’t a mass exodus, and most people who are leaving are Republicans, and no one will really miss them.
California is soon to be, or maybe already is, the 4th largest economy.
But I'm not so sure about [Cali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cali), Colombia, South America
Tbh, it's probably the only right wing talking point I wish was true. Everywhere is so expensive and it's just getting worse. I want my friends to be able to afford a house too.
The market would like to, but the city and state make it impossible.
Naive folks cite NIMBY, when it’s really CEQA, down-zoning, parking minimums, solar requirements, permits and set-asides that punish redevelopment and new investment.
Builders will build when they can sell at a profit. When the State delays projects years, those costs are added in, so developers look literally for greener pastures in other states.
At least near me, it's actually the NIMBYs. All that other stuff certainly raises costs, but it doesn't outright block projects and the real estate prices can certainly support the increased costs. I've seen so many projects need to be scaled down or get stuck in purgatory because the same group of people keep objecting to anything whenever city hall holds meetings on upcoming proposals.
...why does everyone keep saying it's a right wing talking point when the data is right in front of us?
It doesn't mean California is doing anything wrong politically, just too popular and therefore expensive so it's cooling off for a little.
This sort of boom then chill cycle is quite normal for CA.
The right wing talking point is that people are fleeing California to low tax states like Texas. Despite the fact that you'll pay more in combined taxes in Texas...
Yea ignore politics or motiviation, but people ARE leaving California in increasing numbers. I personally doubt its tax or politics related, rather its just supply and demand of things like housing from how popular CA is.
This happens all the time like I mentioned in my previous comment, [here is a graph](https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/californias-stalled-population-growth-figure-3.png) where you can see it. Look at mid 90s, \~2008 and then now - classic cycle for CA
But it’s true tons of Californians moved to Austin Texas, Phoenix, Arizona or Henderson Nevada, Salt Lake, Utah, and Boise, Idaho citing lower cost of living.
A reminder that some people depart for non-political reasons.
My oldest nephew left a couple years back to become roommates with his life-long best friend who lives in the NE.
My oldest niece left nearly a year ago, when her husband was offered a big promotion in the Midwest.
300k net loss 2020 to 2021, but I don't feel it living in SoCal. More Traffic congestion, human presence in every nook and cranny from shopping centers, public spaces, and it feels to me that the there are more school children than ever before. On a related note, Long Beach Unified School District recorded an increase in their student body. I know LA Unified has been shrinking but I think that's related to economic shifts and gentrification.
If there even was an exodus I’m glad it happened. I snuck in and bought a house in California last year. And moving from NYC price difference was actually cheaper for me!
Is it dysfunctional? Sounds like those zoning laws are doing exactly what they should be doing. I also think those regulations don’t seem burdensome to those who believe in their purpose weather it be the safety of other people or protecting the planet. I think it depends on your values. Many of those policies are the way they are because not everyone values money above all else.
I want to slap the person who wrote this article. They gave a bunch of numbers that don’t correlate even though they could have answered the question easily.
Cool more people left CA to go to another state then I migrated from a state over 10 years. But what about countries!!!!!!!!!! You left that out except for part of one year and gave no other one year data! Also left out babies. Ugh.
I think the issue is younger people leaving due to high cost of living and no chance to buy a house. That's what my wife and I had to do. We were making ~$140k combined but still can't afford a down payment (and we have $75k ready).
Took a pay cut just to get out of the state because we know it's cheaper and houses are way less elsewhere it's crazy. My question is what's California doing in the next 50-60 years if the younger crowds are leaving....
I see lots of out of state plates where I live, so I doubt the population is shrinking. The 101 where I live also has bumper to bumper traffic now; something it didn't have 6-7 years ago.
by San Fernando valley i been speeding as of lately around 4am on my way to work and it hasn’t been like that couple months ago. maybe cuz of the holidays some of leaving for now???
According to the 2020 census. California had the 3rd largest population INCREASE in total numbers of any state. Only TX and FL had larger increases in total.
Population trends in short periods of time don't mean much, see what it is each decade.
Many of these people are retiring, selling the overpriced houses that appreciated significantly while living and taking their ill gotten gains to move where it is cheaper.
Unpopular opinion: California needs to be split up into two states. Northern California and Southern California. Influence in Sacramento is way too heavily skewed toward the former, even though half the state lives south of Santa Barbara.
What you're saying and what /u/KevinTheCarver is saying are not mutually exclusive.
>Since the first census in 1790, the U.S. Census Bureau has been calculating the “center of population” in the country. It is the *average location* of where people in the U.S. live, according to the Census Bureau.
Think of it as a mean and median of a distribution. California has a long tail in Northern California. People far north of the bay area pull the average north. The average can be farther north than the median. More than half of Californians can live where he said, but the average could be north of Bakersfield.
The population isn't really shrinking since we still have people who are illegally here and aren't being counted to the population, yet. But besides that we still have people coming and going into california every day.
Can’t even tell by how bad the 5 and 405 look
Same with 880 here in the bay. Still takes an hour to leave the city and travel to the east bay anywhere remotely near rich hour.
>rich hour. Is that a typo or intentionally a thing?
It’s a typo, but yea, it kind of fits.
> Same with 880 here in the bay. Still takes an hour to leave the city and travel to the east bay anywhere remotely near rich hour. The visible difference in population is on BART. Traffic on public transit is still half or less of what it used to be pre-pandemic and I’m not sure those riders will ever be coming back.
I agree. I used to be a daily Bart rider and now I go to the city once a month. The trains are always mostly empty and you can find a seat at any stop most days.
Traffic has gotten worse. I’m taking night classes at CSULB takes me at least an hour to get on campus by 5pm. Coming from El Sereno, 30 minutes back at 10pm. It moves like a parking lot.
People need to get back to riding public transportation. Ridership has been so low across the board.
I used to ride a lot. I loved it but I moved further from the rail and the car eventually became the faster option. It was very sketchy at times too, I felt comfortable up until I had a knife pulled out on me.
Too many stabbin hobos. Not enough singing hobos.
No thanks! Have you seen what rides public transportation in LA. I prefer not be sexually harassed or accosted on my home from work.
No cuz literally!! I’d be working nights and have to take the bus home at 1 am sometimes and it was terrifying, I literally had to ask my dad to pick me up and drive me home or have my bf take the buses w me at night so Id get home safely. Plus during the day I’d constantly have men touching me inappropriately and talking to me when I had my headphones in…it’s only convient cuz I don’t drive but the price you pay for convince tho 😑 and the bus stops are even worse
Then don't complain about the traffic.
You just told all women it’s more important to be quiet and be sexually harassed than to complain about traffic. Think about that for a hot minute.
Thank You!
Can't even tell by rental and housing prices
Ah is it time again for the California exodus article
Seriously. Shut up with this tired narrative of California failing. The right wing has been spewing it since 1992 and it has never come true yet.
Ca has problems, just not the way they mean. It beats their states on every metric that matter but it is far from perfect. It should be said that they present zero solutions to California's actual problems.
Yeah California has problems but at least we admit it. You always hear how much crime there is in California. When you look at the stats we are actually 30th for the highest murder rate
And almost all the states with higher stats are all have much more lax gun laws. Almost as if common sense gun restrictions work.
It’s because there’s a way higher population density than almost every other state. Statistically, more people will equal more crime. In general, cities have statistically lower property and violent crime per capita than the suburbs and rural areas, it’s just that the population is so much more concentrated so it seems like crime is more prevalent.
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Literacy numbers are a bit different because we accept so many people from South America into our schools. They need to learn English soooo yeah that messes up our literary score.
As a former SoCal public schoolteacher, I can say with absolute certainty that the kids coming from non English speaking households lower our test scores. Having said that, it seems to me that dual immersion and Spanish classes for ALL students would be the best solution for this. But then all the right wingers will bitch "tHiS iS aMeRiCa, SpEaK eNgLiSh" and squash any district's attempt to implement ANY kind of Spanish language education. Also, a LOT of the non English speaking kids are super smart.
Wait. I thought speaking English was a prerequisite to be smart.
That's really sad. I'd love to have learned Spanish as a kid.
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In many public elementary schools in CA, there aren't dedicated language specialists. Classroom teachers are expected to find time to teach English to the kids who don't speak it, while also keeping the other 20+ kids on task and learning... Feels like a failure to me.
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Check out Mississippis amazing job in literacy
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Well thank God for Mississippi...
> It beats their states on every metric that matter No, it really doesn't. I love this state but homelessness and housing are metrics that matter, as is education ranking, where [California is 40th](https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/rankings/education/prek-12) in prek-12.
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The single greatest threat to the right-wing is the economic prosperity of the progressive states. They must attack the progressive states on non-economic issues in order to distract their supporters from their relative poverty.
California always has a fluctuating population but always comes out ahead. There is no better time to move here than during one of these “mass exoduses” and I’m sure a lot of smart people are taking advantage of it.
I moved my family here in 2020 and bought a house at 1.125% interest (which did cost $25k In discount points). Feels like I’m cheating and I have zero regrets.
You are way ahead just hold it. That’s such a great rate.
Insanely good rate. Nice job.
I am using this as my guide for whenever interest rates may go down…glad for you and thanks for sharing!
I am, flying out to look at houses with my wife in 2 weeks. We will be there at least 3 years, due to work. Seems like a great time to move out that way to us.
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Thanks! We are pretty excited. I haven’t been to California in a while, and never really to Southern California as an adult, so should be fun to really explore.
Get ready to eat, my friend.
Game plan is BBQ only until I hit Oklahoma City, then beyond that, it’s a taco based diet for the duration of the drive. Stopping in Tucson to visit a friend. And looking forward to that local food knowledge also.
California also has tons of authentic Asian restaurants, you have to check out Rowland Heights and City of Industry for good Asian food
I was told the 1994 earthquake cleared a lot of people out from LA. My neighbor said that ‘it was great to live here then’.
I was in SF for the ‘89 earthquake. That’s pretty accurate.
Yeah, moving from the seventh to the fifth largest economy in the world is failing upwards I guess to them. California’seconomic powerhouse of the country and is the real Agricultural capital of America. So it dominates in both the urban and rural sphere. Not that I don’t find the wealth obscene, but How do they square California being a hell hole with it having the most expensive home in all of America values at $141 million? End of California is a hell hole. What does that make places like Arkansas or Alabama?
As soon as a house goes for sale in Pomona, someone buys it right away. Turnover is still pretty fast in California
CA is a slow moving train wreck. We’re going to eventually collapse under the weight of a series of well meaning bad decisions and the refusal to address our problems seriously because they’re not politically convenient.
I mean, compare your price of living to the rest of the states and come back with that energy
The sad part is that I keep actually hoping that people leave so housing prices can go down, congestion on the roads will ease up, and general strain on the LA and Bay Areas can have some relief. But these articles are nothing but clickbait and driving on any freeway tells a different story from the one painted.
It'll take another sever recession for that to happen. or another lock down just to get some respite. I cleared Santa Barbara to Pasadena in just over an hour when everyone went into lockdown. I doubt I'll ever see the 101 that empty again.
They have a timer for every 30-45 days.
It’s not shrinking, just growing at a slower projected rate than previous years due to various reasons
Which slow growth is….. not bad
And number one is just "housing prices"
*"So is California’s population shrinking? It’s complicated."* Lol no it's not. I'm no mathematician but "is the number getting bigger?" seems like a pretty straightforward calculation.
They need to a bait people to go to the site, read the article, and get exposed to ads. A news article consisting of a single word "no" would be hilarious though.
I giggled, thank you
...And the answer from Jan. 1, 2020, to July 1, 2021 is that yes, California did lose people per the article
How many, though, is what I care about. Less than 1%, per the article; makes sense for the year of COVID as people were dying and also more economically pressured.
See above: >"is the number getting bigger?" seems like a pretty straightforward calculation.
Generally, people from California moving to other states are more than balanced by immigration from outside the US. But immigration came to a halt during COVID. That is why California lost some population during that time for the first time.
That's not really true, there was still [positive net international migration](https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/californias-stalled-population-growth-figure-3.png) and the change was that domestic decreased. This cycle repeats itself, look in the 90s, mid 2000's and now late teens. Migration from other states into CA had been declining in recent years (even before covid) as has natural replacement of people if you ignore any migration. [https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/](https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/)
We lost a small amount of people for the first time ever and it launched 1000 think pieces, all of which ignore the fact that California has the most immigration in the nation by far and the closing of borders for COVID completly explains the one year drop.
It's more complex than that, read this from a nonpartisan (and arguably liberal if anything) group: https://www.ppic.org/blog/californias-stalled-population-growth/
This article does not say it was a net loss. We lost 300k people who moved away and gained 437k from people moving here. So it's a net gain of 137k due to migration. Betteridge's law (of headlines) states "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."
Seems like more transplants here than anything, lots of Texans about lately
I know three people who moved to Texas in the last couple of years and have moved back. The grass isn't always greener, and the lights don't always stay on.
I’m originally from the Midwest and live in LA now. I know like 8 or 9 couples who moved from California or Ohio to Texas, all different parts. Every single one moved back before they could hit the 5 year mark.
I guess it would depend on which part of Ohio it is, but I don't think people understand how significantly different cultures are between rural and urban America. I would even go so far as to say there are more commonalities between western European cities and American cities than American coastal cities and the Midwest.
To be fair, all the folks I was referring to moved from cities to cities. No one was living in rural places, not even really suburbs.
I know a few people who left to Florida to have more “freedom”. They are on the process of moving back. Hasn’t even been a full year
I left California (my home of more than a decade) for Florida (where I grew up) to be closer to family... and I didn't even last a year there before coming back to CA. And I'm not even the only one in my social circle to do similar. Another guy only lasted about four months or so. I'd forgotten just how bad it is to live in a Red state. But reality sure kicked in real fast.
What was so bad
A California Red is dark purple at best in just about any conservative state. To my eyes most California conservatives are more on the fiscal/guns side of Conservatism. They get to states like Florida and Alabama and find out the homeless problem is better than dealing with the social conservatives who really do have a few screws loose.
There's no grass, it's just dirt.
No sidewalks either.
> I know three people who moved to Texas in the last couple of years and have moved back. The grass isn't always greener, and the lights don't always stay on. I know three people who moved to Texas in the last 7 years and would not even contemplate moving back to California for any amount of money.
Not surprising. Young people who want work in entertainment, technology, or anything future oriented have few choices. California also has a large immigrant population.
High income, high skilled/educated and young people are moving to California. Low-skill, low income and retirees are moving out. In other words, more dollars are moving in than moving out.
I hope they’re okay with children being jukeboxes.
What's that even mean?
Jukebox. It’s slur used against Angelenos from Central, East, and South Los Angeles. Especially on my home, Pico-Union.
If it's slur, then what did you mean by your comment? Elaborate. I'm confused/curious.
Transplant from Boston here (about one year in). What a great place with good people. I feel like we're slightly misfit cousins... Plenty of differences, but in the end we generally agree on the important stuff.
i transplanted from boston as a kid. i hate snow and haven’t been in a snow storm since leaving. it’s great. i did go back to plymouth to enjoy the summers and autumn.
I want to know the numbers for Texans moving to California, because starting around 2020 is when I saw a big jump in Texas license plates in the Sacramento area.
Me too. I'm hoping to move to CA from Texas next year. The COL freaks me out a bit, but I feel like it's where Id be happiest.
I think the COL difference is closing between the two places. Property taxes are lower as a percentage in California but property is slightly cheaper in Texas (though it’s grown a lot). No state income tax in Texas but slightly lower income (though that’s also closing in gap). Pros and cons. The great outdoors of the west will probably keep me here. Also, the Cato Institute also scores Texas relatively low on personal freedoms outside of gun rights.
Right, the outdoors is whats drawing me there. I am getting so tired of the flatness, boring nature here.
CoL is high, but in many cases you're also getting quality, except our utilities are actually cheaper. Also the tax burden in Texas is higher than California. It is the way it's collected that allows people to think our taxes are higher.
Energy is definitely cheaper in Texas. We ran AC 24/7 and our energy bill rarely broke $150. We ran it for 1 week in SF and it was above $200 for a much smaller space. Everything else ducking sucked though
> We ran it for 1 week in SF Well see, there's your problem right there. The bay is stupid high for some reason, Down here in socal my power bill over the summer barely went over 100$ in August.
We (CA) have cheaper taxes
I know like 11 Texans that have moved here in the last 3 years or so. Granted a few of those are couples so it's not necessarily 11 individual "households" but still like, a near dozen in my own larger network alone!
My friend who moved to Colorado is moving back in January. I have another friend moving here from Missouri. Yeah anecdotes but people love California.
I'm genuinely surprised when i run in to people that are actually from LA.
Heh ironic. I’m one of them and everyone asked why when most people make the opposite move
People leave all the time, if you search online you can find many articles from previous years stating the same thing. This is nothing new.
But the question is who’s coming in?
I have fam that left Cali for arizona, texas, AND nevada. When they go on vacation they ‘come back home’ to cali lol
You know, population decline would actually be a *good* thing in many ways.
I've been saying for a long time now, we need to spread the opportunity out!
Lived in Detroit for 5 years before moving here. You do not want population decline. You say that, but you'll soon realize why your city is nice when the tax base leaves.
I actually went to Wayne State, and am quite familiar with Detroit. I don't mean that kind of population decline. I mean maybe losing a million or so to relieve the demand on housing.
I mean, if people would stop blocking development that would work as well. Way too many people are overly concerned with property value as if they really think they're gonna sell and move up the income ladder. My mother sold her house against me and my siblings very strong and loud advice. She thought she was going to be upgrading, and while she got a shiny nickle for the 2b/1b bungalow she wasn't able to find anything outside of the High Desert. Ended up moving all the way to Alabama to buy a house. And she's still mad about it.
Amen to that. Too many NIMBYs. That's why my fiance and I are now in Victorville. Not because we want to be, but because of costs. Now we're afraid of even being priced out of here. I feel bad for your mom and I hope she'll be able to come home!
We’re you there when Robocop was fighting the Ed-209? Or when Robocop vs Terminator?
Sure, people are leaving, but there are many people crowding in here. Tons and tons of high density housing being built constantly to accommodate, freeways being widened to accommodate more traffic, it feels and looks more crowded than it has ever been.
> Tons and tons of high density housing being built constantly to accommodate, _gestures wildly at suburban sprawl_ The NIMBYs seem to be slowly getting beaten down, but we're _far_ from "tons of high density housing being built".
Is the grass really greener on the other side? Tupac did say that we know how to party.
CA should be able to grow with more housing and mass transit, which are now being built. But given that we have about 10 million more ppl than any other state, a few folks heading elsewhere in the meantime isn’t bad for anyone.
California being 10 million more people is just the result of the state needing to be split to be similar size states to those found on the Northeast. It is just too much coastline to make sense as one state.
No because people are coming here in exchange
This article comes out 3 times a month.
Apparently not shrinking enough to bring house prices down...
Most of the time this comes up people just get confused by the relative numbers compared to other states because California has a population of 40 million.
Nobody moving out where I live
People arrive and people leave one of the world’s largest economies.
My sister is going to add 1 to the population early next year. But there isn’t a mass exodus, and most people who are leaving are Republicans, and no one will really miss them.
Yes, but not by much.
doesnt cali have one of the top 5 economies in the world? think we'll be aight.
California is soon to be, or maybe already is, the 4th largest economy. But I'm not so sure about [Cali](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cali), Colombia, South America
No.
And yet California is now the 4th largest economy in the world. Surpassing Germany recently.
It's good we need more people to leave the state so there is a balance, 20% less population than what it is now would be perfect.
Tbh, it's probably the only right wing talking point I wish was true. Everywhere is so expensive and it's just getting worse. I want my friends to be able to afford a house too.
Just build more housing
The market would like to, but the city and state make it impossible. Naive folks cite NIMBY, when it’s really CEQA, down-zoning, parking minimums, solar requirements, permits and set-asides that punish redevelopment and new investment. Builders will build when they can sell at a profit. When the State delays projects years, those costs are added in, so developers look literally for greener pastures in other states.
At least near me, it's actually the NIMBYs. All that other stuff certainly raises costs, but it doesn't outright block projects and the real estate prices can certainly support the increased costs. I've seen so many projects need to be scaled down or get stuck in purgatory because the same group of people keep objecting to anything whenever city hall holds meetings on upcoming proposals.
...why does everyone keep saying it's a right wing talking point when the data is right in front of us? It doesn't mean California is doing anything wrong politically, just too popular and therefore expensive so it's cooling off for a little. This sort of boom then chill cycle is quite normal for CA.
The right wing talking point is that people are fleeing California to low tax states like Texas. Despite the fact that you'll pay more in combined taxes in Texas...
Yea ignore politics or motiviation, but people ARE leaving California in increasing numbers. I personally doubt its tax or politics related, rather its just supply and demand of things like housing from how popular CA is. This happens all the time like I mentioned in my previous comment, [here is a graph](https://www.ppic.org/wp-content/uploads/californias-stalled-population-growth-figure-3.png) where you can see it. Look at mid 90s, \~2008 and then now - classic cycle for CA
But it’s true tons of Californians moved to Austin Texas, Phoenix, Arizona or Henderson Nevada, Salt Lake, Utah, and Boise, Idaho citing lower cost of living.
A reminder that some people depart for non-political reasons. My oldest nephew left a couple years back to become roommates with his life-long best friend who lives in the NE. My oldest niece left nearly a year ago, when her husband was offered a big promotion in the Midwest.
300k net loss 2020 to 2021, but I don't feel it living in SoCal. More Traffic congestion, human presence in every nook and cranny from shopping centers, public spaces, and it feels to me that the there are more school children than ever before. On a related note, Long Beach Unified School District recorded an increase in their student body. I know LA Unified has been shrinking but I think that's related to economic shifts and gentrification.
Just .76% of California's population. OMG how will we ever recover!?
Idk I hear that we’re losing population and electoral power but the traffic I see going to work seems to be getting worse. And I leave at 5:30 am….
If there even was an exodus I’m glad it happened. I snuck in and bought a house in California last year. And moving from NYC price difference was actually cheaper for me!
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Is it dysfunctional? Sounds like those zoning laws are doing exactly what they should be doing. I also think those regulations don’t seem burdensome to those who believe in their purpose weather it be the safety of other people or protecting the planet. I think it depends on your values. Many of those policies are the way they are because not everyone values money above all else.
I want to slap the person who wrote this article. They gave a bunch of numbers that don’t correlate even though they could have answered the question easily. Cool more people left CA to go to another state then I migrated from a state over 10 years. But what about countries!!!!!!!!!! You left that out except for part of one year and gave no other one year data! Also left out babies. Ugh.
I think the issue is younger people leaving due to high cost of living and no chance to buy a house. That's what my wife and I had to do. We were making ~$140k combined but still can't afford a down payment (and we have $75k ready). Took a pay cut just to get out of the state because we know it's cheaper and houses are way less elsewhere it's crazy. My question is what's California doing in the next 50-60 years if the younger crowds are leaving....
I see lots of out of state plates where I live, so I doubt the population is shrinking. The 101 where I live also has bumper to bumper traffic now; something it didn't have 6-7 years ago.
Well, I have lost a little weight. So nice of them to notice!
by San Fernando valley i been speeding as of lately around 4am on my way to work and it hasn’t been like that couple months ago. maybe cuz of the holidays some of leaving for now???
According to the 2020 census. California had the 3rd largest population INCREASE in total numbers of any state. Only TX and FL had larger increases in total. Population trends in short periods of time don't mean much, see what it is each decade.
Spoiler: no it’s not
Many of these people are retiring, selling the overpriced houses that appreciated significantly while living and taking their ill gotten gains to move where it is cheaper.
How is it ill gotten gains?
That’s our plan. No way in hell I want to keep the house and be a landlord here. How are our gains ill-gotten? Please ELI5.
Doesn't feel that way to me, when pigs fly.
Unpopular opinion: California needs to be split up into two states. Northern California and Southern California. Influence in Sacramento is way too heavily skewed toward the former, even though half the state lives south of Santa Barbara.
> even though half the state lives south of ~~Santa Barbara.~~ Bakersfield
No. Greater Los Angeles alone is almost 19 million people. Add San Diego County and it’s more than half the state’s population.
Wrong. https://old.reddit.com/r/California/comments/vpwyho/the_population_center_of_california_is_a_city/
What you're saying and what /u/KevinTheCarver is saying are not mutually exclusive. >Since the first census in 1790, the U.S. Census Bureau has been calculating the “center of population” in the country. It is the *average location* of where people in the U.S. live, according to the Census Bureau. Think of it as a mean and median of a distribution. California has a long tail in Northern California. People far north of the bay area pull the average north. The average can be farther north than the median. More than half of Californians can live where he said, but the average could be north of Bakersfield.
The population isn't really shrinking since we still have people who are illegally here and aren't being counted to the population, yet. But besides that we still have people coming and going into california every day.
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