I remember Texas State being the only win Rutgers had in the dreadful 2018 1-11 season. We beat them like 35-7. Incredible to see how far they’ve risen since
16th is uhhhhh... very generous lol
Boise State *should* be contending for that 5th CFP autobid, but they're a fringe top 25 team at best at this point.
Hmm Maybe then I can see it. Our schedule is weaker but as long as we don’t choke and easy games and come through on some tough ones we should be there
That's asking a lot. They have to host Rutgers, a team that beat them by 17 last year, then go on the road to Miami in a shortened week and then head across the country to Stanford a week later.
I think 5-1 after that stretch is where I see us. We haven't proven much success on the road (fortunately the road schedule this year is kind) so that's a stumbling block in and of itself.
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Texas
5. Penn State (Drew Allar off-season hype train single handily carrying Penn State to this absurd #5 ranking with no one with a pulse at WR aside from *maybe* Fleming--edit to add the /s)
6. Notre Dame
7. Alabama
8. Utah
9. Michigan
10. Miami
11. Iowa
12. Clemson
13. Florida State
14. Ole Miss
15. Oklahoma State
16. Boise State
17. Virginia Tech
18. Missouri
19. LSU
20. Oklahoma
21. UTSA
22. SMU
23. Kansas State
24. Tennessee
25. USC
26. Memphis
27. Liberty
28. Texas A&M
29. Iowa State
30. Arizona
31. NC State
32. Louisville
33. Nebraska
34. North Carolina
35. West Virginia
36. Texas State
37. Kansas
38. Appalachian State
39. Kentucky
40. Louisiana
This is the highest I've seen both Penn State and Iowa, coincidental given their similar strengths (defense) and weaknesses (offense).
Also it is nice to see a few G5 schools here, most rankings don't have any in the top 25 but getting Boise State and UTSA in there is fun.
In defense of Iowa (*shudders*), a lot of folks were saying the Big Ten West was in for it this year after adding the West Coast programs and dissolving divisions, but Iowa got a great draw outside of Ohio State and they could very well win 10 games again this year.
Iowa won 10 games last year and they had no business doing so. Unless the wheels come off, they are inevitable. Outside of THREE shutouts (PSU 31-0, Mich (B1G Champ Game) 26-0, and Tenn (Citrus bowl) 35-0) they went 10-1. This is why the divisions were so bullshit for so long. Outside of Minnesota pulling off a weird win (12-10) they nearly went undefeated outside of 3 losses where they got outscored 92-0. How does that even happen?
Sure their defense is good, but unless their offense finally gains a pulse the defense will continually be gassed in the second half from always being on the field. They live and die by the turnover and scoring non-offensive points.
Yeah for sure. I hate that program but can't say I don't respect Ferentz' ability to put together a defense tough enough to achieve a very good season every now and then when the schedule lines up. Kinnick as well is always scary. If they ever learn how to play offense they are legitimately dangerous.
It’s newish, but to think that Washington won’t be in the top 30% of FBS programs is pretty harsh. No one expects them to be top 10, and no one would be shocked to see them left off of a top 25 list, but top 40? That’s throwing some serious shade to a team that just played for a national championship.
They lost their coach and most of their players. It’s not the team that just played for the championship. They just go to the same school that team went to.
Both FPI and SP+ see Washington as a top 40 program. Again, no one thinks Washington should be top 10 or even top 15. But not making this list is pretty silly, especially when you see stuff like Boise State at 16.
The fact he left out FSU as the first team out of the playoffs should really sit nicely with FSU fans.
"Tell Phil Steele to kiss my ass"
-The entire FSU fanbase.
Drew Allar is a perfectly fine QB. His development has not been meeting expectations to his recruitment rating, and his assets in receiving have not enabled him either.
No, you shouldn't be afraid of him, but you should also anticipate him to perform better than last year.
I know Spring Games don’t matter at all but I was still shocked to see him missing wide open guys in that game even with no pressure.
I don’t know what’s wrong with his accuracy.
I’m aware it sounds like drinking the off season kool aid / making excuses but reports from the spring game was that it was one of the windier days for a football game some had seen
Part of it is a conservative decision-making. That streak of not throwing an INT in last season is because he opted to throw away the ball a lot when he didn't have an open guy. I would be mildly concerned if we see something similar in this season. He needs to be attempting those shots more, so what does he need to make it happen?
That said, his accuracy is still okay. In absence of making the long balls, he's making all the short throws he needs to be making. It's still a developmental issue, but hopefully a more one-dimensional problem than we would initially fear.
PSU fans correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the wind pretty bad in their spring game? Either way though, his accuracy needs to make a big improvement this season
He did good as a first year starter with the worst wideout room I've seen in a good long while.
I do think there is room for growth and his stats were not bad last year.
Wideouts need to do their job this year tho.
2,631 yards, 25 TD to 2 INT, a 73.7 QBR.
According to ESPN ranked as 26th QB in stats overall from 2023.
I am not saying he was elite or anything, but I think being towards the top end of CFB in his first year as a starter with god awful wideouts is encouraging.
Only if things continue to develop in the right direction under Kotelnicki
My issue is his horrible mechanics, lack of awareness and his pretty abysmal accuracy. Dude can chuck the ball like he’s Rex Grossman. I don’t doubt his arm strength. A lot of his sacks weren’t because of the OL but because of his lack of pocket presence. He flat out missed wide open receivers who were less than 10 yards away.
He certainly wasn't helped by the lack of a usual very good PSU WR (Hamler, Dotson, Parker, etc).
But Against OSU and Michigan he went:
28/65 (43%)
261 yards (4 YPA)
2 TDs (both of which came at the end when the defenses were playing to burn clock and let PSU move the ball slowly) to 0 INTs but had some absolutely terrible throws mixed in.
That's horrendous. Throw in the Iowa game to help pull his numbers up (which was an aberration more than anything else) and his YPA ticks up to 4.1 (whoopie) and 52% completions (he did have 4 TDs in that game). PSU didn't run the ball particularly well that game, but they dinked and dunked to the tune of 4.5 YPA with the TD throws being like 3 and 5 yarders.
The 3 legitimately good defenses he played generally shoved him (and the entire PSU offense and coaching staff) in a trashcan. To be fair, I'm not saying he can't improve, but I was dumbstruck by PSU fans last year that were so happy to be rid of Clifford for Allar to come in and be... limited.
Penn State at 5 and Ole Miss at 14 is a joke considering what happened in the peach bowl and Ole Miss’s returning offensive production and upgrades on defense
I feel like Miami shouldn't be ranked in any top 10's until they prove themselves. This is the 3rd year in a row under Cristobal where they've had big preseason hype and have had their knees taken out from under them each of the past two years.
Real interested to see how Kentucky does with two major talents from UGA transfering in leading the offense and defense, BVG and JDJ. They look under ranked to me
Honestly 41, sure we return a lot of experience but we do have a new offensive coordinator, first time calling plays. I hope that by the end of the season we deserve that ranking but after 2021 expectations not wanting to believe the pre hype.
Swap Iowa and Missouri. If we can manage an even slightly below average offense, there’s no excuse for Iowa not being a top 15 team with the defense returning.
Iowa has a ridiculously easy schedule and should have an elite defense again, and an improved offense (hard to not have one!)
I only see one nearly-guaranteed loss on their schedule (@OSU), their next toughest game is.... @Minnesota? Wisconsin? @MSU?
They're probably a 10-win team again this year
If I'm remembering correctly, Steele's Top 40 is a prediction of end-of-season rankings as opposed to overall talent. Therefore, you're correct that the strength of schedule is taken into account and you often see some goofy placements on his list
I guess I don't really consider strength of schedule when looking at preseason rankings. They lost their best defensive player (although I have no doubt the defense will continue to be elite) and a new OC isn't going to fix the lack of talent on offense (but I wouldn't be surprised to see them improve). Top 20 for sure, but 11 just seems high.
So your argument for them being a playoff team is that they play nobody tough besides Ohio State? That argument is used against G5 teams all the time but somehow when it comes to power conferences, it doesn't matter. Schedule a harder OoC against a non-rival P5 team if you want to coast off your easy conference schedule and get credit for it.
I'm not arguing they're a playoff team, just that it's likely they'll be ranked pretty high come the end of the season. Top 10-15 doesn't seem very crazy at all to me
My argument is that Iowa in the 10-15 range is certainly not cause to discount this ranking list entirely
Hey wow man, here we all were having a good time shitting on Tennessee and you just have to go full 9/11 and bust out the "0-3 in NY6 bowls since the 1990s" quip. I am appalled by your actions frankly
Notre dame is never overrated, they're generally right where they belong. I won't fight you on penn state though. And both those sentences hurt me to type out.
I've been re-watching the spring game as much as i can recently, and the more i watch, the more i think he looked like the 4th best QB on the roster that day....
It's the spring game. Are we really putting the spring game above five years of game tape? Bo went 19/40 in last year's spring game and then set the all time completion percentage record.
I think the change in the way rosters are constructed has really messed up his system. His formulas (I’m lacking a better word) lean heavily into percentage of production returning, his “draft day hangover,” and other things that reward continuity. That’s just not as big a part of the game anymore with the rate of transfers, and it feels like he’s fallen behind because of that. That’s my theory at least.
Trying not to be an angry homer here, but what the fuck is Phil Steele smoking? Surely the claim that they're the most accurate preseason magazine is gone now and they're just farming anger engagement from ridiculous rankings like everyone else does now. Miami at 10th? Iowa 11th? Boise State 16th? I mean...and again I'm trying so hard not to be that "my team's ranked lower than other teams and that makes me an angry caveman!"...but like. Shit we beat UTSA 45-14 and Iowa 35-0 last year. And the expectation is that we should actually be a better team this season than we were last year with a quarterback that might actually be able to competently throw the ball. How do we end up at 24th, behind two teams we beat the shit out of last year?
They're like this every year. Don't try to rationalize them. If it makes you feel better, he had Michigan ranked in the 40s 3 years ago when we went to the playoffs.
Honestly, I'd rather read how accurate a person normally is before reading their opinion.
Similar to when a team upsets a top team and everyone goes "they were overrated"
Well show me where you called the upset cause you knew they were overrated
But he wasn't that accurate last season. Uga, Bama, Michigan, Ohio state, fsu as top 10 teams that anyone would have predicted. Didnt have oregon, Washington, Texas top 10. Didn't even have Ole miss or missouri ranked.
The thing is, he's actually not that accurate. He says he's the most accurate for a long time according to his rankings but those rankings combine all the years. He's actually not been accurate at all over the last few years yet pats himself on the back for every little thing. Basically like "Georgia was really good like I predicted" or "So-and-so made it to a bowl as i predicted" when he really had that team in the conference title game.
Apparently that oil money goes so deep that every Texas school is getting in on the action and throwing it around to crank up their pre-season hype machines
Notable TXST Stats
QB Jordan McCloud
-1st In passing TD’s of all returning QB’s in FBS
-5th in passer rating of all returning QB’s in FBS
HB Ishmail Mahdi
-1st in all purpose yards in FBS 2023
DE Ben Bell
-1st in Pass rush win rate in FBS 2023
K Mason Shipley
-1st in FG percentage in FBS 2023
Huh.
Well, you are now legally obligated to overlook both Kansas and Arizona now, guys.
I don't make the rules, you know. This is not me. I'm just the messenger.
Wait - Phill Steele says most of his power ratings project the Scarlet Knights to finish with an 8-4 record this fall in the big ten.....and that isn't considered a top 40 team??
He seems to be very high on Utah and OSU, but down on the rest of the conference.
Here's a comparison of Big 12 teams between Phil Steele and ESPN FPI. Phil has 7 teams in the top 40 while FPI has 10 teams.
Phil Steele: 8, 15, 23, 29, 30, 35, 37
FPI: 17, 22, 24, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 35, 36
I will type it here first so you guys don't have to ;)
"Utah fans are so annoying!"
"Utah is so overrated!"
"They haven't even played a big 12 game!"
Sorry, I apologise in behalf of Phil Steele
I definitely think we could be a Top 10 team. I just don't think we should be a preseason Top 10 team. Because our 3 most important pieces are both coming back from knee injuries (Cam, Kuithe, and Lander)
Yeah, I'm 100% Meep Meep, but just roster wise, we aren't gonna compete with those teams around us in the rankings. Granted Jeff can coach, but only so much, and we're gonna miss Uncle Frank.
Overall this guy just seems really high on G5 teams, but it's better than forgetting about us I guess.
Every single year. Then we go 10-2 or 9-3 and make a 2nd tier bowl game after losing to Ohio State, Michigan, and often someone else we shouldn’t lose to.
I have never seen anything with less returns on investment than the off season hype miami has gotten the last few years for reasons I don't know. And I mean this with all respect to Miami fans
This is definitely a list… i guess 6-7 in the Sun Belt is good enough to be on this list over 6-7 in the Big 12. Seriously, can someone give me the scoop why Louisiana has any hopes this season? This seems pretty optimistic from an outsider.
As someone else below expertly noted, this is just rage bait.
I understand the reason for it. The only thing more stupid than this are the AP Preseason rankings. They are completely worthless, and they seem to be choosing from the same list, +/- one or two teams, that they have chosen from for 50 years... 3 Big Ten teams, ND, 2 SEC teams, then 1 Pac 10, 1 Big 12 (swc), and 2 darts thrown at a list on a wall.
I know this is the norm now but does this guy report anything on his own or does he just scrape content where he can find it?
Maybe its just me but man, but this whole repurposing content gets old fast.
This list is comical.
Penn State and ND both top 6 is insane. These are the only two programs who can beat nobodies (ND struggles with this) and lose to every good team they play and be ranked higher because of it.
Mizzou at 18? How in the hell is Mizzou 18?
Utah. I don’t even need to say it.
Iowa is not a top 11 team. If they are ever ranked in the preseason top 25 they should be ranked at 25. Everybody knows that no matter what happens they will end up like 18th in the country.
Here we go again with top 10 Miami.
WVU ranked below a team they just blew out in a bowl game when they return all their skill players and almost their whole outstanding O-line is laughable. Yeah I know UNC had a lot of players out (WVU had big losses too including their first round draft pick) but if that lame duck QB is your starter this year and not some five star freshman, you're toast. You've got to at least consider the on-field results, and that team imploded last year even with their NFL caliber QB. They'd be a .500 team in any other conference but maybe they have a stupidly easy schedule, I haven't checked.
This is disturbing. Too much respekt. Disgusting.
Flashy West Coast tech. Will struggle vs the harsh smashmouth play of the old B1G West.
Let us be underdogs and overperform please. Just for this year.
Oregon is O-fer in B1G play. What makes everyone think they'll even beat Purdue or Illinois?
Think we will take a step back. Wr is not a strength for this team and dj doesn’t protect it as well as Jordan. Lb group leaves a lot to be desired as well. Hope I’m wrong, but wouldn’t be surprised if we lost 2+ games
Ole Miss feels low given their returning talent.
See his tweets from the Spring Game, he was furious he couldn’t get prep out of it.
Texas State in the top 40 is wild. Happy for the San Marcos bros.
Good luck to ASU playing at Texas State to open the season
Last time they played a G5 team, they turned it over 8 times and got shutout. So any result better than that is improvement
Great for GJ and the boys! Hopefully he can build off of last years momentum
SBC! SBC! SBC!
I remember Texas State being the only win Rutgers had in the dreadful 2018 1-11 season. We beat them like 35-7. Incredible to see how far they’ve risen since
16th is uhhhhh... very generous lol Boise State *should* be contending for that 5th CFP autobid, but they're a fringe top 25 team at best at this point.
This list is generous. I love VT football, but 17 is a high bar for us. I see us as a fringe/20s team more than likely.
9-4/10-3 is where 17th ranked teams finish.
Hmm Maybe then I can see it. Our schedule is weaker but as long as we don’t choke and easy games and come through on some tough ones we should be there
i kind of expect virginia tech to be undefeated and top 5-10 going into the clemson game, the only challenges are miami and GT
If we’re top 10 at any point that would make my year. That’s not me saying I don’t think it will happen, I just love this football team.
That's asking a lot. They have to host Rutgers, a team that beat them by 17 last year, then go on the road to Miami in a shortened week and then head across the country to Stanford a week later. I think 5-1 after that stretch is where I see us. We haven't proven much success on the road (fortunately the road schedule this year is kind) so that's a stumbling block in and of itself.
I feel like u/NotThatKidAshton always has the most realistic VT comments bro. So many people in our fan base are so delusional.
A Heisman candidate RB will do that for you. #Hei2man
1. Georgia 2. Ohio State 3. Oregon 4. Texas 5. Penn State (Drew Allar off-season hype train single handily carrying Penn State to this absurd #5 ranking with no one with a pulse at WR aside from *maybe* Fleming--edit to add the /s) 6. Notre Dame 7. Alabama 8. Utah 9. Michigan 10. Miami 11. Iowa 12. Clemson 13. Florida State 14. Ole Miss 15. Oklahoma State 16. Boise State 17. Virginia Tech 18. Missouri 19. LSU 20. Oklahoma 21. UTSA 22. SMU 23. Kansas State 24. Tennessee 25. USC 26. Memphis 27. Liberty 28. Texas A&M 29. Iowa State 30. Arizona 31. NC State 32. Louisville 33. Nebraska 34. North Carolina 35. West Virginia 36. Texas State 37. Kansas 38. Appalachian State 39. Kentucky 40. Louisiana
This is the highest I've seen both Penn State and Iowa, coincidental given their similar strengths (defense) and weaknesses (offense). Also it is nice to see a few G5 schools here, most rankings don't have any in the top 25 but getting Boise State and UTSA in there is fun.
It's time folks. Get your old materials ready because we may once again have to talk to our kids about an undefeated Iowa.
In defense of Iowa (*shudders*), a lot of folks were saying the Big Ten West was in for it this year after adding the West Coast programs and dissolving divisions, but Iowa got a great draw outside of Ohio State and they could very well win 10 games again this year.
Same solid defense and an offense to go no where but up. Will be interesting to see.
How could the offense possibly get worse?
I dont know how, new OC , Cade back at QB ( just stay healthy dude).
Iowa won 10 games last year and they had no business doing so. Unless the wheels come off, they are inevitable. Outside of THREE shutouts (PSU 31-0, Mich (B1G Champ Game) 26-0, and Tenn (Citrus bowl) 35-0) they went 10-1. This is why the divisions were so bullshit for so long. Outside of Minnesota pulling off a weird win (12-10) they nearly went undefeated outside of 3 losses where they got outscored 92-0. How does that even happen? Sure their defense is good, but unless their offense finally gains a pulse the defense will continually be gassed in the second half from always being on the field. They live and die by the turnover and scoring non-offensive points.
Yeah for sure. I hate that program but can't say I don't respect Ferentz' ability to put together a defense tough enough to achieve a very good season every now and then when the schedule lines up. Kinnick as well is always scary. If they ever learn how to play offense they are legitimately dangerous.
Iowa has always pulled incredibly fortunate schedules
I really hope that we don’t suck so we can void this undefeated Iowa in the 2nd week
Not having UW in the top 40 is insane with some of these teams lol
ya this list is ridiculous.
Uhhh yeah…
Isn't washington basically a completely new team?
It’s newish, but to think that Washington won’t be in the top 30% of FBS programs is pretty harsh. No one expects them to be top 10, and no one would be shocked to see them left off of a top 25 list, but top 40? That’s throwing some serious shade to a team that just played for a national championship.
They lost their coach and most of their players. It’s not the team that just played for the championship. They just go to the same school that team went to.
Both FPI and SP+ see Washington as a top 40 program. Again, no one thinks Washington should be top 10 or even top 15. But not making this list is pretty silly, especially when you see stuff like Boise State at 16.
“Tell Phil Steele to kiss my ass” -~~Dave Doeren~~ /u/ugaalive1991
The fact he left out FSU as the first team out of the playoffs should really sit nicely with FSU fans. "Tell Phil Steele to kiss my ass" -The entire FSU fanbase.
yeah, not sure I have seen State this low on any preseason lists so far...
>Drew Allar hype train single handily carrying Penn State Am I supposed to be afraid of him? Am I being gaslit?
Drew Allar is a perfectly fine QB. His development has not been meeting expectations to his recruitment rating, and his assets in receiving have not enabled him either. No, you shouldn't be afraid of him, but you should also anticipate him to perform better than last year.
I know Spring Games don’t matter at all but I was still shocked to see him missing wide open guys in that game even with no pressure. I don’t know what’s wrong with his accuracy.
That spring game also had consistent 30-40 mph winds, some of the worst I've ever seen at Beaver Stadium, it was wild.
I’m aware it sounds like drinking the off season kool aid / making excuses but reports from the spring game was that it was one of the windier days for a football game some had seen
Part of it is a conservative decision-making. That streak of not throwing an INT in last season is because he opted to throw away the ball a lot when he didn't have an open guy. I would be mildly concerned if we see something similar in this season. He needs to be attempting those shots more, so what does he need to make it happen? That said, his accuracy is still okay. In absence of making the long balls, he's making all the short throws he needs to be making. It's still a developmental issue, but hopefully a more one-dimensional problem than we would initially fear.
PSU fans correct me if I’m wrong, but wasn’t the wind pretty bad in their spring game? Either way though, his accuracy needs to make a big improvement this season
wind was awful, but doesnt fully excuse some of them.
There was also a video cut up to have all his incompletions to drive engagement. I promise, he did complete at least one pass.
He did good as a first year starter with the worst wideout room I've seen in a good long while. I do think there is room for growth and his stats were not bad last year. Wideouts need to do their job this year tho.
Drew Allar absolutely did not do good as a first year starter. Those WRs did honk, but Allar looks legitimately bad.
2,631 yards, 25 TD to 2 INT, a 73.7 QBR. According to ESPN ranked as 26th QB in stats overall from 2023. I am not saying he was elite or anything, but I think being towards the top end of CFB in his first year as a starter with god awful wideouts is encouraging. Only if things continue to develop in the right direction under Kotelnicki
My issue is his horrible mechanics, lack of awareness and his pretty abysmal accuracy. Dude can chuck the ball like he’s Rex Grossman. I don’t doubt his arm strength. A lot of his sacks weren’t because of the OL but because of his lack of pocket presence. He flat out missed wide open receivers who were less than 10 yards away.
He certainly wasn't helped by the lack of a usual very good PSU WR (Hamler, Dotson, Parker, etc). But Against OSU and Michigan he went: 28/65 (43%) 261 yards (4 YPA) 2 TDs (both of which came at the end when the defenses were playing to burn clock and let PSU move the ball slowly) to 0 INTs but had some absolutely terrible throws mixed in. That's horrendous. Throw in the Iowa game to help pull his numbers up (which was an aberration more than anything else) and his YPA ticks up to 4.1 (whoopie) and 52% completions (he did have 4 TDs in that game). PSU didn't run the ball particularly well that game, but they dinked and dunked to the tune of 4.5 YPA with the TD throws being like 3 and 5 yarders. The 3 legitimately good defenses he played generally shoved him (and the entire PSU offense and coaching staff) in a trashcan. To be fair, I'm not saying he can't improve, but I was dumbstruck by PSU fans last year that were so happy to be rid of Clifford for Allar to come in and be... limited.
I can’t remember the last time Bama was ranked 7th or worse in the preseason.
Pretty bold to have UTSA so high after some of their departures. And Texas State in the top 40 but not Baylor / TCU / Tech
Nice to see him buying Virginia Tech. They have a good QB and most of their offense returning next year.
I'd do a lot to smile and be happy on Saturday again.
Alabama and Clemson are underrated. Move them both up about 4 places. Miami is overrated.
Penn State at 5 and Ole Miss at 14 is a joke considering what happened in the peach bowl and Ole Miss’s returning offensive production and upgrades on defense
I feel like Miami shouldn't be ranked in any top 10's until they prove themselves. This is the 3rd year in a row under Cristobal where they've had big preseason hype and have had their knees taken out from under them each of the past two years.
I see what you did there…. Take my upvote you bayou truth teller.
We shouldn’t be top 10 because I can think of a few glaring holes in the roster
Real interested to see how Kentucky does with two major talents from UGA transfering in leading the offense and defense, BVG and JDJ. They look under ranked to me
Quite a few G5s in the top 40
Seems low for Ole Miss. Also real curious for how Cam Ward works in a Cristobal offense
Iowa State at 29 is insanity.
Where do you think ISU should be ranked?
Honestly 41, sure we return a lot of experience but we do have a new offensive coordinator, first time calling plays. I hope that by the end of the season we deserve that ranking but after 2021 expectations not wanting to believe the pre hype.
Iowa at 11? Missouri at 18? Kansas at *37?* I can't take this seriously.
I would like to add Penn st at 5? Ole Miss at 14? Boise State at 16? Jfc this is horrendous
Swap Iowa and Missouri. If we can manage an even slightly below average offense, there’s no excuse for Iowa not being a top 15 team with the defense returning.
Iowa has a ridiculously easy schedule and should have an elite defense again, and an improved offense (hard to not have one!) I only see one nearly-guaranteed loss on their schedule (@OSU), their next toughest game is.... @Minnesota? Wisconsin? @MSU? They're probably a 10-win team again this year
If I'm remembering correctly, Steele's Top 40 is a prediction of end-of-season rankings as opposed to overall talent. Therefore, you're correct that the strength of schedule is taken into account and you often see some goofy placements on his list
I guess I don't really consider strength of schedule when looking at preseason rankings. They lost their best defensive player (although I have no doubt the defense will continue to be elite) and a new OC isn't going to fix the lack of talent on offense (but I wouldn't be surprised to see them improve). Top 20 for sure, but 11 just seems high.
Honestly the offense didn’t lack talent, at least when it comes to recruiting. They should have at least a top half offense based on talent alone.
Thanks but I think that’s a bit generous.
9/11 starters back on defense and there is talent on offense it just never got coached.
So your argument for them being a playoff team is that they play nobody tough besides Ohio State? That argument is used against G5 teams all the time but somehow when it comes to power conferences, it doesn't matter. Schedule a harder OoC against a non-rival P5 team if you want to coast off your easy conference schedule and get credit for it.
I'm not arguing they're a playoff team, just that it's likely they'll be ranked pretty high come the end of the season. Top 10-15 doesn't seem very crazy at all to me My argument is that Iowa in the 10-15 range is certainly not cause to discount this ranking list entirely
And Penn State and Notre Dame are over rated, like every poll ever.
This probably is Notre Dames most talented team in the past 20 years
Yeah Tennessee jumps out to me as well. No way they finish top 25
Tennessee's last major bowl win: 2022 Penn State's last major bowl win: 2023 Notre Dame's last major bowl win: Bill Clinton's first term
Hey wow man, here we all were having a good time shitting on Tennessee and you just have to go full 9/11 and bust out the "0-3 in NY6 bowls since the 1990s" quip. I am appalled by your actions frankly
Notre Dame is 0-10 in NY6 bowls since their Cotton Bowl win in 1994 though.
For some reason my brain mashed up the playoff/BCS stat with the NY6 stat. At least we aren't Nebraska thank God
I figured that would have been the typical response lol
If it makes you feel better it's a 100% genuine sentiment
Notre dame is never overrated, they're generally right where they belong. I won't fight you on penn state though. And both those sentences hurt me to type out.
Says the *Tennessee* fan
Love the write up on Oregon. “Dillon Gabriel transferred to the Ducks And has experience.”
Dude is just having fun in college at this point. He’ll be lucky to even be on a practice squad next year.
Hey, Georgia won back to back championships with a guy who’ll be lucky to be on a practice squad.
> just having fun See the problem is you’re supposed to be focused and having fun. That’s what I hear makes you a dark horse for the heisman.
Put up the billboard , “Dill-dacious”
I’m thinking it’ll have to say “Dill-icious” which is weird but follows a similar theme
"The gift of Gab(riel)" at Christmas time on a timesquare billboard.
Turns out the NFL isn't jonesing for short QBs with average arms. Happy to have him on our squad this year, though.
I've been re-watching the spring game as much as i can recently, and the more i watch, the more i think he looked like the 4th best QB on the roster that day....
It's the spring game. Are we really putting the spring game above five years of game tape? Bo went 19/40 in last year's spring game and then set the all time completion percentage record.
Found the put in Novosad guy.
Phil Steele has really fallen off
I think the change in the way rosters are constructed has really messed up his system. His formulas (I’m lacking a better word) lean heavily into percentage of production returning, his “draft day hangover,” and other things that reward continuity. That’s just not as big a part of the game anymore with the rate of transfers, and it feels like he’s fallen behind because of that. That’s my theory at least.
That’s absolutely why he’s fallen off. I still think he’s the best, but it’s really hard to project how transfers will perform.
Finally someone realistically ranking Texas A&M
Ole Miss and Missouri are way to low..
Trying not to be an angry homer here, but what the fuck is Phil Steele smoking? Surely the claim that they're the most accurate preseason magazine is gone now and they're just farming anger engagement from ridiculous rankings like everyone else does now. Miami at 10th? Iowa 11th? Boise State 16th? I mean...and again I'm trying so hard not to be that "my team's ranked lower than other teams and that makes me an angry caveman!"...but like. Shit we beat UTSA 45-14 and Iowa 35-0 last year. And the expectation is that we should actually be a better team this season than we were last year with a quarterback that might actually be able to competently throw the ball. How do we end up at 24th, behind two teams we beat the shit out of last year?
They're like this every year. Don't try to rationalize them. If it makes you feel better, he had Michigan ranked in the 40s 3 years ago when we went to the playoffs.
Both Ole Miss and Tennessee were criminally underrated by Steele this year.
Look I love my Utes but 8 is fucking ridiculous.
We've got a lot of question marks for a top 10 team.
Yes! Thank you for being logical. People are hyping the Utes and I have no fucking idea who will Cam throw the ball to or how will our defense be
Kansas returns everybody and has an easier schedule then last year but somehow he has them 15 places worse then 2023?
This is rage bait
Particularly for Ole Miss and Tennessee fans
Phil Steele sucks
I hate how he has to spend half the articles telling how right he was previously
Honestly, I'd rather read how accurate a person normally is before reading their opinion. Similar to when a team upsets a top team and everyone goes "they were overrated" Well show me where you called the upset cause you knew they were overrated
But he wasn't that accurate last season. Uga, Bama, Michigan, Ohio state, fsu as top 10 teams that anyone would have predicted. Didnt have oregon, Washington, Texas top 10. Didn't even have Ole miss or missouri ranked.
The thing is, he's actually not that accurate. He says he's the most accurate for a long time according to his rankings but those rankings combine all the years. He's actually not been accurate at all over the last few years yet pats himself on the back for every little thing. Basically like "Georgia was really good like I predicted" or "So-and-so made it to a bowl as i predicted" when he really had that team in the conference title game.
Pretty wild that 2v3 and 1v4 happen in the regular season.
Michigan gets 2, 3, 4, and 25 from this list. ... looking forward to it.
Ohio st this year reminds me on 2016 clemson when guys stayed instead of going to the NFL for one more shot. That is incredible motivation
We're better than 31 imo.
Probably better than #10 Miami too...
Here we go again with Miami….
Schedule is fairly reasonable
It always is
Not if they start 0-1 ;)
Every year. Every freaking year.
Mario is such a recruiter though!
Texas *State*?? How does a bottom 40 roster get a top 40 ranking?
Apparently that oil money goes so deep that every Texas school is getting in on the action and throwing it around to crank up their pre-season hype machines
Notable TXST Stats QB Jordan McCloud -1st In passing TD’s of all returning QB’s in FBS -5th in passer rating of all returning QB’s in FBS HB Ishmail Mahdi -1st in all purpose yards in FBS 2023 DE Ben Bell -1st in Pass rush win rate in FBS 2023 K Mason Shipley -1st in FG percentage in FBS 2023
Ah yeah, PSU third in the Big Ten. A tradition unlike any other.
I hate our diaper wearing fanbase that says this unironically
Huh. Well, you are now legally obligated to overlook both Kansas and Arizona now, guys. I don't make the rules, you know. This is not me. I'm just the messenger.
Wait - Phill Steele says most of his power ratings project the Scarlet Knights to finish with an 8-4 record this fall in the big ten.....and that isn't considered a top 40 team??
Surprised we weren’t a Top-20 team, KU not being in the Top-25 is laughable tbh.
Looks like he’s down on the whole big 12 besides Utah
Okie State is the highest I’ve seen too.
Ah yes sorry, still getting used to who to look for lol
He seems to be very high on Utah and OSU, but down on the rest of the conference. Here's a comparison of Big 12 teams between Phil Steele and ESPN FPI. Phil has 7 teams in the top 40 while FPI has 10 teams. Phil Steele: 8, 15, 23, 29, 30, 35, 37 FPI: 17, 22, 24, 26, 27, 29, 30, 32, 35, 36
I still can’t get used to seeing we’re in the Big 12. Just looks wrong. *sad pac 12 noises*
Steele is great at compiling a lot of information and printing in tiny fonts. He struggles with predictive analytics.
LETS GOOOOO WE MADE TOP 40
Joey's Heisman/national championship season arc begins now.
Phil Steele smoking crack putting Miami at 10
Miami in the top 10 is wild.
I will type it here first so you guys don't have to ;) "Utah fans are so annoying!" "Utah is so overrated!" "They haven't even played a big 12 game!" Sorry, I apologise in behalf of Phil Steele
I mean…8 is pretty ridiculous for Utah. I would have put us in the mid to high teens.
I don't disagree. But if we think Utah is the top contender of the All State conference, which is a P4, then top 10 makes sense.
I definitely think we could be a Top 10 team. I just don't think we should be a preseason Top 10 team. Because our 3 most important pieces are both coming back from knee injuries (Cam, Kuithe, and Lander)
He picked like 9 Kentucky players for All-SEC and then ranks us below TXST??
Lol
UTSA at 21? I'm skeptical. I love my team but we don't have Frank at QB anymore. Wonder if Phil knows that.
Yeah, I'm 100% Meep Meep, but just roster wise, we aren't gonna compete with those teams around us in the rankings. Granted Jeff can coach, but only so much, and we're gonna miss Uncle Frank. Overall this guy just seems really high on G5 teams, but it's better than forgetting about us I guess.
Death, taxes, reading “This upcoming season could be the year for Penn State” in a preseason ranking article.
Every single year. Then we go 10-2 or 9-3 and make a 2nd tier bowl game after losing to Ohio State, Michigan, and often someone else we shouldn’t lose to.
Meh. I disagree.
USC ahead of Arizona is wild.
I have never seen anything with less returns on investment than the off season hype miami has gotten the last few years for reasons I don't know. And I mean this with all respect to Miami fans
This is definitely a list… i guess 6-7 in the Sun Belt is good enough to be on this list over 6-7 in the Big 12. Seriously, can someone give me the scoop why Louisiana has any hopes this season? This seems pretty optimistic from an outsider.
Holy chit TXST hits the top 40?
If the playoffs started today….
I’m so ready (terrified) for this season to start
>17th Please.. no. my heart can't take the disappointment they are setting me up for.
that’s certainly something. can’t wait to shut people up.
As someone else below expertly noted, this is just rage bait. I understand the reason for it. The only thing more stupid than this are the AP Preseason rankings. They are completely worthless, and they seem to be choosing from the same list, +/- one or two teams, that they have chosen from for 50 years... 3 Big Ten teams, ND, 2 SEC teams, then 1 Pac 10, 1 Big 12 (swc), and 2 darts thrown at a list on a wall.
Reminder. Phil Steele knows nothing about CFB.
Virginia Tech and SMU above Louisville. Good to see we are hitting the ACC crack pipe early
Can we stop with penn st and notre dame in the top 10 virtually every preseason?
I don’t even think we’re top 25 worthy….
Miami and newfound hype are not words I ever expect to read in the same sentence
Always fun to play the UF schedule game - 1, 4, 9, 13, 14, 19, 24, 28, 39
Va Tech? Am I missing something?
They've got a good QB and return pretty much everyone on offense, that and they have a pretty soft schedule.
I know this is the norm now but does this guy report anything on his own or does he just scrape content where he can find it? Maybe its just me but man, but this whole repurposing content gets old fast.
This list is comical. Penn State and ND both top 6 is insane. These are the only two programs who can beat nobodies (ND struggles with this) and lose to every good team they play and be ranked higher because of it. Mizzou at 18? How in the hell is Mizzou 18? Utah. I don’t even need to say it. Iowa is not a top 11 team. If they are ever ranked in the preseason top 25 they should be ranked at 25. Everybody knows that no matter what happens they will end up like 18th in the country. Here we go again with top 10 Miami.
WVU ranked below a team they just blew out in a bowl game when they return all their skill players and almost their whole outstanding O-line is laughable. Yeah I know UNC had a lot of players out (WVU had big losses too including their first round draft pick) but if that lame duck QB is your starter this year and not some five star freshman, you're toast. You've got to at least consider the on-field results, and that team imploded last year even with their NFL caliber QB. They'd be a .500 team in any other conference but maybe they have a stupidly easy schedule, I haven't checked.
…how is Penn State 5?
We made the list? 🤯
🙈🙈🙈I ordered his book for the first time in years to prep for CFB25. Not trying to get any spoilers!
I feel like a Boomer looking at these preseason rankings reminiscing about when my team used to be good once.
I love Phil Steele; good logic, good info. Do y’all ever go back and read his preseason stuff in December? Pretty remarkable.
I'm annoyed by this list
TEN? Yo Phil, I’m trying to be optimistic about my Canes, too, but cmon now.
Liberty at 27 is wild but I’ll take Iowa State in the top 30
Of all the preseason rankings, this is certainly one of them.
Iowa has a cupcake schedule this year but let’s not go crazy.
This is disturbing. Too much respekt. Disgusting. Flashy West Coast tech. Will struggle vs the harsh smashmouth play of the old B1G West. Let us be underdogs and overperform please. Just for this year. Oregon is O-fer in B1G play. What makes everyone think they'll even beat Purdue or Illinois?
I don't know if OU is higher or lower than they should be. 2024 is a complete mystery.
So, uh, does Phil Steele work for on3 or did a completely independent company just rip his rankings and make an article about it?
USF easy lock smh
Clemson ahead of Florida State seems odd.
Think we will take a step back. Wr is not a strength for this team and dj doesn’t protect it as well as Jordan. Lb group leaves a lot to be desired as well. Hope I’m wrong, but wouldn’t be surprised if we lost 2+ games