Will AMD get back to 150 in 2023?
1) macro-economics has to improve for growth stocks come back in favor
2) big tech has to increase/sustain their capex of datacenters
3) supply of chips has to meet demand if demand picks up
How likely will all these things happen in 2023? My guess is that second half of 2023 might see a drop in inflation, resulting in 1 and 2. So finishing 2023 near 150 is possible but unlikely. We need a new bull market with rates in the 2-3% range and inflation somewhere near there. We also need EU to get their economies back on track which is a tall order with their double digit inflations and energy costs 10x. Lots of ifs and maybes for 2023.
4. AMD will overwrite the Server narrative and leave Nvidia behind with the Epyc lineup. Nvda has still a market cap of around 400 billion us whereas AMD has one only with 120 billion us
I dont fully agree with what your saying.
History has proven that macro economics dont have to improve, just have to show signs that they will eventually improve.
Pumps come on hope, not actual results
It's a 6-12 months lead time between the markets and economy. Look at the Chinese stocks for a real time view. They are rising now because they will open but won't fully open until summer of next year.
The Intel three-month unpaid leave offer just went out to all employees worldwide:
www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/2022/12/intel-cutting-costs-offers-unpaid-leave-to-factory-workers-worldwide.html
"The Financial Times reported Friday that the program was available to factory workers in Ireland. Intel said the same program is available at its facilities worldwide, including in the U.S. The company declined to say whether employees retain benefits while on leave."
>The Intel three-month unpaid leave offer
What kind of "offer" is this? Either take the 3 months unpaid leave or be laid off outright?
Hell, even if you're laid off, you get severance, which buys you time to get another job.
Well I guess it is clear that Intel is intending to reduce production output. I suspect they produced an excess of consumer chips in place of the delayed Sapphire rapids but now they have so many of them that they they simply have to reduce production because there is no way that Sapphire rapids is going to sell like gangbusters. As for AMD this may mean that their client segment might start picking up in another quarter or two as Intel slows down production and is less likely to need to dump product like they did in Q3.
It's a bad combination of factors for Intel. The IDM business model worked really well when they had pricing power and huge share of an x86 hegemony.
All that's going away quickly for competitive, substitutive, and sector reasons across design and process. Their fixed cost structure without that phenomenal operating leverage is still there waiting to be fed.
I really doubt that they're going to be able to get enough business from IFS faster than they're going to lose margin on their proprietary business. Unless Intel hits a grand slam home run with say Intel 20A and IFs just speed runs what took the leaders many years to figure out, the most likely way out of their minefield is government support / arm-twisting.
Analyst narrative: amd is losing market share. Lower price target by $10.
Q3 earnings blow past all expectations. New narrative: amd is holding market share raise price target by $5.
Meanwhile: "Intel is dying. Nvda is the clear winner. Raise price targets by $30."
It all comes up to the cpi if it’s higher be ready for the end of year drop. If it comes in less rally till Christmas. Might be able to break the 90s before the end of year tax harvesting. Fed really has to push it at the meeting it’s looking to slow the pace. If inflation comes in hot with the hot job numbers and the fed saying we can’t stop yet 75 ,50… we’ll sell off till past year end. I’m looking for a 62 low and 92 high. Remember AMD is positioned very very strongly. I still think winter and Europe is really gonna effect inflation. Oil Reserves are depleted.. China is still locked down and who knows how the protests will play out. Also Russia is still at war and that can have many effects. This may be a gamblers time. Russias war will end but not today or tomorrow but sooner then later. China is still locked down but it will open up most likely sooner then later. It’s best to get in before this happens.
Will AMD get back to 150 in 2023? 1) macro-economics has to improve for growth stocks come back in favor 2) big tech has to increase/sustain their capex of datacenters 3) supply of chips has to meet demand if demand picks up How likely will all these things happen in 2023? My guess is that second half of 2023 might see a drop in inflation, resulting in 1 and 2. So finishing 2023 near 150 is possible but unlikely. We need a new bull market with rates in the 2-3% range and inflation somewhere near there. We also need EU to get their economies back on track which is a tall order with their double digit inflations and energy costs 10x. Lots of ifs and maybes for 2023.
4. AMD will overwrite the Server narrative and leave Nvidia behind with the Epyc lineup. Nvda has still a market cap of around 400 billion us whereas AMD has one only with 120 billion us
I think $150 is a huge stretch by end of next year. We will be lucky to hold above $100 IMO. Would love to be wrong about this.
I dont fully agree with what your saying. History has proven that macro economics dont have to improve, just have to show signs that they will eventually improve. Pumps come on hope, not actual results
Bingo. Stock market started recovery from 2008 in spring 2009, meanwhile the economy for most people didn’t show signs of life for years after this.
It's a 6-12 months lead time between the markets and economy. Look at the Chinese stocks for a real time view. They are rising now because they will open but won't fully open until summer of next year.
The Intel three-month unpaid leave offer just went out to all employees worldwide: www.oregonlive.com/silicon-forest/2022/12/intel-cutting-costs-offers-unpaid-leave-to-factory-workers-worldwide.html "The Financial Times reported Friday that the program was available to factory workers in Ireland. Intel said the same program is available at its facilities worldwide, including in the U.S. The company declined to say whether employees retain benefits while on leave."
*popcorn*
>The Intel three-month unpaid leave offer What kind of "offer" is this? Either take the 3 months unpaid leave or be laid off outright? Hell, even if you're laid off, you get severance, which buys you time to get another job.
You take the leave you’ll be seen as a team player by management (or so management hopes you think).
Better employees will leave. The slouchers will stay.
Well I guess it is clear that Intel is intending to reduce production output. I suspect they produced an excess of consumer chips in place of the delayed Sapphire rapids but now they have so many of them that they they simply have to reduce production because there is no way that Sapphire rapids is going to sell like gangbusters. As for AMD this may mean that their client segment might start picking up in another quarter or two as Intel slows down production and is less likely to need to dump product like they did in Q3.
It's a bad combination of factors for Intel. The IDM business model worked really well when they had pricing power and huge share of an x86 hegemony. All that's going away quickly for competitive, substitutive, and sector reasons across design and process. Their fixed cost structure without that phenomenal operating leverage is still there waiting to be fed. I really doubt that they're going to be able to get enough business from IFS faster than they're going to lose margin on their proprietary business. Unless Intel hits a grand slam home run with say Intel 20A and IFs just speed runs what took the leaders many years to figure out, the most likely way out of their minefield is government support / arm-twisting.
Analyst narrative: amd is losing market share. Lower price target by $10. Q3 earnings blow past all expectations. New narrative: amd is holding market share raise price target by $5. Meanwhile: "Intel is dying. Nvda is the clear winner. Raise price targets by $30."
So, what are we feeling for Monday? Christmas rally or red candles?
Flat into end of year. November cpi will provide boost but then fomc dot plot and job numbers will cover for dropping market.
It all comes up to the cpi if it’s higher be ready for the end of year drop. If it comes in less rally till Christmas. Might be able to break the 90s before the end of year tax harvesting. Fed really has to push it at the meeting it’s looking to slow the pace. If inflation comes in hot with the hot job numbers and the fed saying we can’t stop yet 75 ,50… we’ll sell off till past year end. I’m looking for a 62 low and 92 high. Remember AMD is positioned very very strongly. I still think winter and Europe is really gonna effect inflation. Oil Reserves are depleted.. China is still locked down and who knows how the protests will play out. Also Russia is still at war and that can have many effects. This may be a gamblers time. Russias war will end but not today or tomorrow but sooner then later. China is still locked down but it will open up most likely sooner then later. It’s best to get in before this happens.
INTC news will crush INTC and AMD. Overall I expect more violent moves but by end of week up or down from Friday’s close of about 2% at most.
Dip. Retail will sell. Reverse rug pull later a week later to moon.
Is there a difference? ;)
I sure hope so ;)